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    Russian Economy General News: #8

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    miketheterrible

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  miketheterrible on Thu Jan 12, 2017 4:05 am

    I just thought of it but Russia should invest in China's energy industry. Take a somewhat hold in it. Buy into Chinese Nuclear energy sector and offer more cooperation between the two and opening up a Rosatom facility in China to grab onto the market share. Same with Hydro Electric company like Power Machines. Even work on windfarms in China and Solar energy. China, regardless what happens economically, is always going to be in heavy demand for energy and they really want to strive towards clean energy, and they are going to do it regardless. So in this instance, Russia should invest in it and try to take hold of a portion of that market in order to secure deals and continue to have jobs for Russians when they have to build parts and provide services.

    Same should be done for various of other Russian industries to work in China as well. It just means more money for Russia and its treasury.

    Russia should do the same in other countries as well. Like Egypt, Vietnam, Thailand, etc. They cant really go forward looking for investments within Russia. So next best thing is to expand Russia's business capabilities into the other countries and gain hold of that market share. Eventually the money makes it back to Russia.
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    Kimppis

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  Kimppis on Thu Jan 12, 2017 6:44 pm

    Some people are really overreacting here... This clash between USANATO and Russia was inevitable, period. Russia just has to deal with it, although it seems that many Russians were way too naive about the west.

    I'm not an expert on the US political system. How much power does Trump have over sanctions overall? Russophobia and hegemony are unquestioned traditions in the US, so public opinion towards Russia isn't going to massively change.

    As Putin said, the US was just waiting for an excuse to sanction Russia. Now that they are in place, it won't be easy to remove them, the symbolism is too strong. Anyone wanting to remove sanctions will be labeled a "Pro-Russian", and that's a total no-no, atleast for the mainstream media. Although Trump still won and the Anti-Russian hysteria has gone totally off the rails as it is (seriously, I can't believe what's going on... this shit can't get any crazier), so I guess anything is possible. Not to mention that many EU countries are no fans of these sanctions. They've been a total flop, especially politically.

    Just read on RT that some IMF guy forecasts an average yearly growth rate of 1.5% for the next 5 years, but it seems to me that that is based on basically nothing. I guess he just mentioned it during an interview, so it's not even an actual report, IDK.

    That must be based on very conservative and negative (old?) estimates. Even Russia's base plus scenario forecasts a growth rate of over 2% by 2019. Not to mention that a growth of 2%, or more than 1.5% even for this year is not out of the question at all.

    Something like an average of 2.5% sounds pretty plausible and at that point (early 2020s) the growth rate could/should already be +3% (of course for the next few years the growth is going to be pretty modest, so that's going to bring the average down for such a long period).
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    Singular_Transform

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  Singular_Transform on Thu Jan 12, 2017 11:00 pm

    Seems like the RF car sales reached the bottom.

    considering the high interest rate it can go up easly if the central bank cut the interest rate.
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    kvs

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  kvs on Thu Jan 12, 2017 11:57 pm

    Singular_Transform wrote:Seems like the RF car sales reached the bottom.

    considering the high interest rate it can go up easly if the central bank cut the interest rate.

    Nabiullina's CBR is shaving 4% of Russia's GDP growth. These clowns are the prime reason there is almost
    no growth or even a small contraction in Russia's economy.

    This annoys me like hell. It's always the same shit. Some western ideology is imported into Russia and then
    applied like Salafi sharia but the essentials, practiced in the west, are never implemented. On what basis does
    Nabiullina apply interest policy that was a total failure when applied in the west (e.g. Volker's high interest rate
    policy during the late 1970s and early 1980s; when conditions were actually inflationary unlike in Russia today).
    She and the rest of the CBR clowns refuse to apply the successful policy practiced in the west for the last 30
    years. Putin should start losing popularity over this. Maybe then he will move up the purge schedule.
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    TheArmenian

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  TheArmenian on Fri Jan 13, 2017 2:11 am

    Light vehicle sales (cars and LCVs) in Russia were down 11% in 2016.
    The domestic manufacturers gained share.
    Lada sales were down 2% only.
    UAZ sales were up 1%
    GAZ sales were up 9%

    By the way Lada sales were up almost 20% in December compared to last December.
    Also, Lada sales were up almost every month during the last 6 months. Bur were not enough to offset the declines earlier in the year.


    Austin

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  Austin on Fri Jan 13, 2017 12:32 pm

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    Kimppis

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  Kimppis on Fri Jan 13, 2017 9:15 pm

    kvs wrote:
    Singular_Transform wrote:Seems like the RF car sales reached the bottom.

    considering the high interest rate it can go up easly if the central bank cut the interest rate.

    Nabiullina's CBR is shaving 4% of Russia's GDP growth.   These clowns are the prime reason there is almost
    no growth or even a small contraction in Russia's economy.  

    This annoys me like hell.   It's always the same shit.  Some western ideology is imported into Russia and then
    applied like Salafi sharia but the essentials, practiced in the west, are never implemented.   On what basis does
    Nabiullina apply interest policy that was a total failure when applied in the west (e.g. Volker's high interest rate
    policy during the late 1970s and early 1980s; when conditions were actually inflationary unlike in Russia today).
    She and the rest of the CBR clowns refuse to apply the successful policy practiced in the west for the last 30
    years.   Putin should start losing popularity over this.   Maybe then he will move up the purge schedule.

    That sounds like an exaggeration? Sure, they seem to be little too "careful", but 4%?

    Kudrin just said that he wants inflation down to 2%, so high interest rate is probably going to remain for some time (of course they are going to start lowering it, but only slowly).
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    miketheterrible

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  miketheterrible on Fri Jan 13, 2017 10:08 pm

    TheArmenian wrote:Light vehicle sales (cars and LCVs) in Russia were down 11% in 2016.
    The domestic manufacturers gained share.
    Lada sales were down 2% only.
    UAZ sales were up 1%
    GAZ sales were up 9%

    By the way Lada sales were up almost 20% in December compared to last December.
    Also, Lada sales were up almost every month during the last 6 months. Bur were not enough to offset the declines earlier in the year.


    this. Car sales in luxury and foreign dropped while domestic grew a tad bit (their share in the market grew.

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    kvs

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  kvs on Sat Jan 14, 2017 2:55 am

    Kimppis wrote:
    kvs wrote:
    Singular_Transform wrote:Seems like the RF car sales reached the bottom.

    considering the high interest rate it can go up easly if the central bank cut the interest rate.

    Nabiullina's CBR is shaving 4% of Russia's GDP growth.   These clowns are the prime reason there is almost
    no growth or even a small contraction in Russia's economy.  

    This annoys me like hell.   It's always the same shit.  Some western ideology is imported into Russia and then
    applied like Salafi sharia but the essentials, practiced in the west, are never implemented.   On what basis does
    Nabiullina apply interest policy that was a total failure when applied in the west (e.g. Volker's high interest rate
    policy during the late 1970s and early 1980s; when conditions were actually inflationary unlike in Russia today).
    She and the rest of the CBR clowns refuse to apply the successful policy practiced in the west for the last 30
    years.   Putin should start losing popularity over this.   Maybe then he will move up the purge schedule.

    That sounds like an exaggeration? Sure, they seem to be little too "careful", but 4%?

    Kudrin just said that he wants inflation down to 2%, so high interest rate is probably going to remain for some time (of course they are going to start lowering it, but only slowly).

    2% is roundoff noise and Russia is still a transition economy that can have a baseline GDP growth rate higher than the
    developed economies because of massive rebuilding of housing and growth of the middle class. We have seen this pattern
    over most the last 17 years. It only stalls during severe recessions. The CBR is maintaining the current recession. Russian
    business can no longer easily bypass loan shark Russian interest rates by borrowing abroad due to sanctions. So the
    CBR's whackjob policies are hitting hard. No sane financial regulator would impose an 11% prime interest rate
    with a 6% inflation. The CBR had an interest rate of 8.5% when the base inflation in Russia was 10% if you look back
    to around 2010. The inflation in Russia is clearly following a long term decline pattern (which given the CBR's schizophrenic
    policies cannot be attributed to the CBR). About 10 years ago it was around 13-15% and hit 7% in 2013.

    The current policy of the CBR can easily account for the stall in wage growth (hence stall in middle class growth) and for
    the stall in large scale real estate redevelopment. You think that 4% is too much? Based on what?
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    kvs

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  kvs on Sat Jan 14, 2017 2:57 am

    miketheterrible wrote:
    TheArmenian wrote:Light vehicle sales (cars and LCVs) in Russia were down 11% in 2016.
    The domestic manufacturers gained share.
    Lada sales were down 2% only.
    UAZ sales were up 1%
    GAZ sales were up 9%

    By the way Lada sales were up almost 20% in December compared to last December.
    Also, Lada sales were up almost every month during the last 6 months. Bur were not enough to offset the declines earlier in the year.


    this. Car sales in luxury and foreign dropped while domestic grew a tad bit (their share in the market grew.


    If not for the CBR Russia would be the largest car market in Europe today. The CBR 5th column nutjobs have killed consumer
    borrowing and hence car purchases. The 2% Lada sales is a pathetic figure that reflects people buying by paying the whole
    price. There are no car markets in the OECD where consumers pay the whole price without borrowing.

    Austin

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  Austin on Sat Jan 14, 2017 9:30 am

    Kudrin Outlined the program of Economic Growth at Gaider Forum


    http://www.vedomosti.ru/economics/articles/2017/01/13/672888-kudrin-pokazal

    Start the reform of the state director of the Center for Strategic Research (CSR), Alexei Kudrin proposes a large-scale change in the state administration system. This system is necessary to do more modern and dynamic, he urged participants Gaidar Forum during his presentation.

    Plan Kudrin

    CSR is now working on Russian strategic development program for the period 2018-2024 gg. The contours of this program Kudrin and presented today at the Gaidar Forum. The former finance minister has read the report from the podium, and the panelists - ministers of finance and economic development, Anton Siluanov and Maxim Oreshkin, Chairman of the Accounts Chamber Tatyana Golikova, the first deputy chairman and deputy chairman of Xenia Yudaeva VEB Andrei Klepach - listened to him from the hall. Later they went to the Presidium for consideration.

    Demographic change, lack of investment, technological backwardness, low productivity and poor quality of public administration - the main challenges for Russia, Kudrin listed.
    Respond to them, you can use the "state as the platform" approach, the main elements of which - a single state information system services application programming interface. It will integrate government data, reduce costs, increase transparency and speed of decision making, will enable flexible adaptation to changes, he said. While state institutions and public administration do not help carry out reforms, Kudrin complains: "We are the state-centric economy."

    Another priority Kudrin - judicial reform, new rules and procedures that protect the rights of the owners, a new system of recruitment, increase the efficiency of courts system. Here you need to consider steps for 6-10 years.

    The growth of the budget system expenditure on education up to 4-4.7% of GDP by 2024 (currently 3.7%) and health 4-4.3% of GDP (currently 3.9%) improve the quality of human capital, according to Kudrin: need to create a continuous and flexible education for all ages, including the elderly. Today, no such system, it is necessary to spend money, he said.


    We set a goal to achieve inflation at 4% in the three-year term, said Kudrin monetary policy: but in the medium term, you can go down inflation to 2-3%.
    This will create a long-term money, which needs the economy, he said. After reaching the target with 4% of the Central Bank announced its intention to keep inflation around that level for some time. It must be understood, after 3 years (to reduce inflation to 2-3%) or in the more distant future, retorted Yudaeva.

    Seniors and military


    In recent years, mainly growing social and defense spending budget, complains Kudrin. To prevent bloating "social" needs a balanced pension system. Raising the retirement age - the only one of the resources, he said: "When talking about raising the age, we talk about how to pay decent pensions in the future."

    "Forecast CSR comes from raising the retirement age and the involvement of the working age population - those who are already retiring. In our version, we suggest raising the retirement age for women to 63 years for men - up to 65 years ", - he said.


    If we make the pension system more targeted - to pay higher pensions to those who need them, and less to those who least need it - then get more money to send in health and education, agreed Siluanov. Raising the retirement age is not a panacea for all Golikova noted: this is a very delicate matter, which should be viewed in conjunction with disability. "If we do not look at it in the complex, we will not solve the problem of balance between the FIU and the FIU budget depending on transfers from the federal budget", - she said.

    Stability and optimization


    Priorities - macroeconomic stability and predictability of the tax environment, Oreshkin said. He supported the policy of inflation targeting and the Central Bank noted that due to higher oil prices will be able to partially maintain a reserve fund. The tax burden on the "White sector", according to him, can be reduced, and the overall "tax system and good works."

    The tax burden in the 32-33% enough to ensure our basic needs, evaluates Siluanov: The Ministry of Finance may collect more revenue without increasing the tax burden by improving the administration. There are provisions for cost optimization, he said.


    Inefficient cost - a consequence of poor governance, Golikova stated: "if we start analyzing, then go out on the quality of institutions, which the government has created and supports." The volume of inefficient budget spending is estimated at 600-650 billion rubles. But we need to change our approach to spending, according to Golikova: abandon FAIP, differently prioritize the budget to working on the economy.

    Additional difficulties


    Without trust, it is difficult to carry out reforms, Kudrin noted. Lack of confidence - this is an additional tax on any public transaction, said Kudrin, completing its report: we have a high level of confidence in the President, but if you look at the level of confidence in the government, the parliament, the police, it is lower - about 30-20%, sometimes even 15%.
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    Singular_Transform

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  Singular_Transform on Sat Jan 14, 2017 1:57 pm

    TheArmenian wrote:Light vehicle sales (cars and LCVs) in Russia were down 11% in 2016.
    The domestic manufacturers gained share.
    Lada sales were down 2% only.
    UAZ sales were up 1%
    GAZ sales were up 9%

    By the way Lada sales were up almost 20% in December compared to last December.
    Also, Lada sales were up almost every month during the last 6 months. Bur were not enough to offset the declines earlier in the year.


    Yes, it was my bad, the car manufacturing number stabilised, the car sales fallen more, means the economy rebalancing.
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    Singular_Transform

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  Singular_Transform on Sat Jan 14, 2017 1:57 pm

    kvs wrote:
    Singular_Transform wrote:Seems like the RF car sales reached the bottom.

    considering the high interest rate it can go up easly if the central bank cut the interest rate.

    Nabiullina's CBR is shaving 4% of Russia's GDP growth. These clowns are the prime reason there is almost
    no growth or even a small contraction in Russia's economy.

    This annoys me like hell. It's always the same shit. Some western ideology is imported into Russia and then
    applied like Salafi sharia but the essentials, practiced in the west, are never implemented. On what basis does
    Nabiullina apply interest policy that was a total failure when applied in the west (e.g. Volker's high interest rate
    policy during the late 1970s and early 1980s; when conditions were actually inflationary unlike in Russia today).
    She and the rest of the CBR clowns refuse to apply the successful policy practiced in the west for the last 30
    years. Putin should start losing popularity over this. Maybe then he will move up the purge schedule.

    It is purposeful, I think the central bank wants to reallocate the money from consumption to investment.
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    kvs

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  kvs on Sat Jan 14, 2017 2:37 pm

    Singular_Transform wrote:
    kvs wrote:
    Singular_Transform wrote:Seems like the RF car sales reached the bottom.

    considering the high interest rate it can go up easly if the central bank cut the interest rate.

    Nabiullina's CBR is shaving 4% of Russia's GDP growth.   These clowns are the prime reason there is almost
    no growth or even a small contraction in Russia's economy.  

    This annoys me like hell.   It's always the same shit.  Some western ideology is imported into Russia and then
    applied like Salafi sharia but the essentials, practiced in the west, are never implemented.   On what basis does
    Nabiullina apply interest policy that was a total failure when applied in the west (e.g. Volker's high interest rate
    policy during the late 1970s and early 1980s; when conditions were actually inflationary unlike in Russia today).
    She and the rest of the CBR clowns refuse to apply the successful policy practiced in the west for the last 30
    years.   Putin should start losing popularity over this.   Maybe then he will move up the purge schedule.

    It is purposeful, I think the central bank wants to reallocate the money from consumption to investment.

    How? Russian companies do the investment. The CBR is not GosPlan. Russian companies are being sabotaged
    by not being able to engage in routine financial transactions. They will not be investing if neither they nor their
    customers can engage in rational transactions.

    The CBR's loan shark interest policy serves zero positive macroeconomic purpose. Nabiullina's excuse is that Russian
    inflation is too high. Since it is 6% clearly she is full of shit. I wouldn't project intelligent or non-malicious decision
    making onto the CBR management.
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    Kimppis

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  Kimppis on Sat Jan 14, 2017 5:30 pm

    kvs wrote:
    Kimppis wrote:
    kvs wrote:
    Singular_Transform wrote:Seems like the RF car sales reached the bottom.

    considering the high interest rate it can go up easly if the central bank cut the interest rate.

    Nabiullina's CBR is shaving 4% of Russia's GDP growth.   These clowns are the prime reason there is almost
    no growth or even a small contraction in Russia's economy.  

    This annoys me like hell.   It's always the same shit.  Some western ideology is imported into Russia and then
    applied like Salafi sharia but the essentials, practiced in the west, are never implemented.   On what basis does
    Nabiullina apply interest policy that was a total failure when applied in the west (e.g. Volker's high interest rate
    policy during the late 1970s and early 1980s; when conditions were actually inflationary unlike in Russia today).
    She and the rest of the CBR clowns refuse to apply the successful policy practiced in the west for the last 30
    years.   Putin should start losing popularity over this.   Maybe then he will move up the purge schedule.

    That sounds like an exaggeration? Sure, they seem to be little too "careful", but 4%?

    Kudrin just said that he wants inflation down to 2%, so high interest rate is probably going to remain for some time (of course they are going to start lowering it, but only slowly).

    2% is roundoff noise and Russia is still a transition economy that can have a baseline GDP growth rate higher than the
    developed economies because of massive rebuilding of housing and growth of the middle class.   We have seen this pattern
    over most the last 17 years.
      It only stalls during severe recessions.   The CBR is maintaining the current recession.   Russian
    business can no longer easily bypass loan shark Russian interest rates by borrowing abroad due to sanctions.   So the
    CBR's whackjob policies are hitting hard.    No sane financial regulator would impose an 11% prime interest rate
    with a 6% inflation.   The CBR had an interest rate of 8.5% when the base inflation in Russia was 10% if you look back
    to around 2010.    The inflation in Russia is clearly following a long term decline pattern (which given the CBR's schizophrenic
    policies cannot be attributed to the CBR).   About 10 years ago it was around 13-15% and hit 7% in 2013.

    The current policy of the CBR can easily account for the stall in wage growth (hence stall in middle class growth) and for
    the stall in large scale real estate redevelopment.    You think that 4% is too much?   Based on what?    

    I agree (especially with the bolded part), but are you talking about a yearly growth rate of 4%? I think the recession was inevitable, but I guess it could've been slightly milder... like a few % higher growth rates overall during the period (2014-16), that's it.

    Austin

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  Austin on Sun Jan 15, 2017 6:53 am

    Russia restores Japanese yen to forex reserves, cuts back on euro

    http://www.reuters.com/article/uk-russia-cenbank-reserves-idUSKBN14T0OO

    Russia's central bank reinstated the Japanese yen in its international reserves in the second quarter of 2016, while cutting back on the share of euros, the bank said on Monday.

    The central bank said it held 2.4 percent of its foreign currency reserves in yen as of June 30, 2016, after mentioning no holdings of the Japanese currency as of March 31 in its previous quarterly report.

    Previously, the central bank, which discloses its foreign currency reserves structure with a lag of six months, had reported having less than 1 percent of its reserves stored in yen-denominated assets.

    The share of dollars in Russia's currency reserves rose to 48.3 percent as of June 30, 2016, up from 47 percent as of late March 2016, the central bank's data showed on Monday.

    The share of euros in the reserves declined to 35.7 percent as of late June, down from 39.1 percent seen in late March, while the share of the British pound went down to 8.8 percent from 9.3 percent.

    Canadian dollar assets accounted for 3.7 percent of Russian foreign-currency assets as of mid-2016, versus 3.5 percent three months before.

    The share of the Australian dollar remained unchanged over the second quarter at 1.1 percent and the share of the Chinese yuan also stood unchanged at 0.1 percent.

    Russia joined a small group of countries, most of them in Asia, which purchased the Chinese currency for their reserves in late 2015 in an attempt to diversify its strategic holdings of foreign assets.

    (Reporting by Anton Kolodyazhny; Writing by Andrey Ostroukh; Editing by Christian Lowe)

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  Austin on Sun Jan 15, 2017 6:57 am

    Russian Forex Reserves looks like this

    USD - 48.3 %
    Euro - 35.7 %
    Canadian Dollar - 3.7 %
    Japanese Yen - 2.4 %
    China Yuan - 0.1 %


    So the first 4 countries have sanctioned Russian and CB has kept Forex reserves of those countries but for China who has been consistent friend of Russia and has been into IMF SDR , CB has kept just 0.1 % of the currency so much of love for China Smile


    WoW that must be something , The first 4 country can just take away all the money if they want or refuse to pay

    The Forex % held by CB looks Sucidal at best
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    miketheterrible

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  miketheterrible on Sun Jan 15, 2017 7:12 am

    Chinese currency current volatile (so is CAD though too) and it is accepted nearly everywhere. I don't think it necessarily means all of that FOREX is hidden in those countries. They are in bonds. And if the Canadian government pulls this kind of BS on Russia, well, you can imagine the impending shit storm. Let us not forget that Russia still has a lot of private debt that has to be paid to these nations. If they withheld the payment as US would withhold the value of the bonds from Russia, then imagine what that will do to the world economy? The banking sectors of these nations?

    Nothing is a single straight path.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  Austin on Sun Jan 15, 2017 7:24 am

    miketheterrible wrote:Chinese currency current volatile (so is CAD though too) and it is accepted nearly everywhere.  I don't think it necessarily means all of that FOREX is hidden in those countries.  They are in bonds.  And if the Canadian government pulls this kind of BS on Russia, well, you can imagine the impending shit storm.  Let us not forget that Russia still has a lot of private debt that has to be paid to these nations.  If they withheld the payment as US would withhold the value of the bonds from Russia, then imagine what that will do to the world economy?  The banking sectors of these nations?

    Nothing is a single straight path.

    These countries are irrational people and they can well take irrational decisions too.

    The key here is not what these countries can do but what can Russia do to prevent itself from getting screwed up.

    Holding Majority of Forex in such currency is open to blackmailing when ever these Western countries and allies want too.

    Better to keep Majority Forex in Gold ,Yuan , IMF SDR , Euro , USD in that order .........I dont know what Yen , Canadian Dollar or Australian one are even in currency reserves.

    Atleast with Europe Russia can blackmail then stopping Gas with US they have no leverage and they have 48 % of Reserves in USD , What a Jack Ass Central Banks are
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    franco

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  franco on Tue Jan 17, 2017 1:11 am

    I am looking for the 2016 Russian GDP in roubles. Looking for a Russian government figure, not an US$ amount converted to roubles. Any assistance would be appreciated.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  Austin on Tue Jan 17, 2017 5:00 am

    franco wrote:I am looking for the 2016 Russian GDP in roubles. Looking for a Russian government figure, not an US$ amount converted to roubles.  Any assistance would be appreciated.

    I had posted Russian GDP figures in trillion roubles earlier but just to put it again

    GDP Trillion Rouble

    2016 - 81 ( http://www.factosphere.com/macro/gdp/ )
    2017 - 86.8
    2018 - 92.29
    2019 - 98.86 ( Source 2017-2019 : https://sputniknews.com/business/201610131046296598-russia-budget-2017-2019/ )
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    franco

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  franco on Tue Jan 17, 2017 12:08 pm

    Thanks. Knew I had seen it here but couldn't relocate yesterday.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  Austin on Tue Jan 17, 2017 12:23 pm

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-economy-privatisation-idUSKBN12X1NG?il=0

    Among other ways that Russia could finance the budget deficit, Ulyukayev cited increased borrowing, something the finance ministry plans from next year.

    "In a situation with a liquidity surplus we can borrow much more on the domestic market. With sovereign debt of 12-13 percent of GDP, and with the bulk of this debt in roubles, one can't speak of serious risks," he said.

    "From the point of view of risks to macroeconomic stability, increasing domestic debt to 15-20-25 percent of GDP doesn't carry risks."



    Austin

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  Austin on Tue Jan 17, 2017 12:28 pm

    What he is saying is Public Debt Can be increased to 25 % of GDP  without risk to Macroincrease stability

    Current debt is 13 % of GDP so increasing to 25 % means 12 % increase.  Every 1 % increase in debt adds 900 billion Rouble.

    So they can easily borrow 10-11 Trillion Roubles  and increase debt to 25 % without any risk to macro economic stability

    Or lets say government can borrow 1 Trillion each year for the next 10 years , Infact they are just doing just that borrowing 1 trillion each year in 2017 ,18,19 to cover budget deficit instead of spending from NWF
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    Rmf

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  Rmf on Wed Jan 18, 2017 12:26 am

    hes saying there is liquidity surplus on domestic market, economy has rebounded, russia has trade surplus all this time so money wont be a problem but artificialy high interest rates are really becoming bad now. ofcourse gdp is shrinking when you are paying off your debt and when you take loans it increases , russia payed it off mostly and economy is real 2 trillion.
    what would gdp of usa would be if it let 2008 crash happen? fiscal economy is larger then real economy in usa now so how much of 14 trillion gdp would be left? 5,7,9?

    - that is strange and i would keep reserves in 10% of any currency max. euro, dolar ,frank ,yuan, yen ,pound,sdrs, gold, about 10% , then brazil, australia ,canada ,norway,south africa ,singapore, currency in smaller quantity , there is plenty to choose from and not to prefer anybody.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

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