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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #26

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    JohninMK
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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #26

    Post  JohninMK on Tue Nov 22, 2016 4:00 pm

    KIEV (Sputnik) – The Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) is working on pressing criminal charges against some 1,300 former servicemen of the Ukrainian army from Crimea who switched to the Russian military, SBU head Vasyl Hrytsak said Tuesday.

    "More than 1,300 people … We are trying to see how these people travel to Ukraine or other countries and we shall do everything in our power to press criminal charges against them," he told a briefing. Hrytsak also did not rule out on Tuesday that the Russian servicemen detained on the Crimean border may be swapped in future for Ukrainian nationals.

    The Russian Defense Ministry on Monday reported that Ukrainian Security Service officers kidnapped two Russian soldiers in Crimea November 20 and took them to Ukraine's Mykolaiv region with an apparent goal to press criminal charges against them. “In theory, everything is possible [regarding swaps], but an investigator will soon determine their fate … and then maybe a court,” the official told a briefing.

    Hrytsak specified that the Russian servicemen were accused in 2015 of desertion and treason.


    Read more: https://sputniknews.com/world/201611221047712300-army-sbu-ukraine-charge/

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #26

    Post  Benya on Tue Nov 22, 2016 6:03 pm

    519 violations of the ceasefire regime by Ukraine

    Ukrainian army shelled the DPR territory 519 times for the last 24 hours. It has been reported by the DPR deputy Command-In-Chief Eduard Basurin.

    ‘The situation in the Donetsk People’s Republic is still difficult. Ukrainian military units targeted the Republic 519 times for the last 24 hours. Six artillery shells of 152mm and 122mm caliber and 148 mines landed in the Republic. Moreover, the hostility used infantry combat vehicle, grenade launchers, and small arms’, Basurin specified.

    In the morning it  was reportd that 100 houses are without power in Elenovka after night shelling of Ukrainian side.

    Ukraine violated the ceasefire regime every day. And from time to time the hostility tries to beak through the DPR positions.

    Source: Arrow http://novorossia.today/519-violations-of-the-ceasefire-regime-by-ukraine/


    What is the point of this endless shelling of villages? Do the Kiev junta thinks that DPR troops are there? Unlike ukrainians, the Novorossiyans are not cowards who would use civilians as some kind of "human shield".

    Edit: The only reason why DPR troops would be in a village, is to hold it/defend it. Using artillery only against enemies is not the way to break through someone's defenses. BTW I still don't understand the goal of this massive ukrainian bombardment campaign.

    JohninMK
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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #26

    Post  JohninMK on Tue Nov 22, 2016 6:15 pm

    Benya wrote:
    What is the point of this endless shelling of villages? Do the Kiev junta thinks that DPR troops are there? Unlike ukrainians, the Novorossiyans are not cowards who would use civilians as some kind of "human shield".

    Edit: The only reason why DPR troops would be in a village, is to hold it/defend it. Using artillery only against enemies is not the way to break through someone's defenses. BTW I still don't understand the goal of this massive ukrainian bombardment campaign.
    Multiple reasons, amongst which are:

    - it can so it does
    - it keeps all these troops, especially the crazy ones, away from rioting in Kiev
    - keeps the troops 'trained'
    - it tries to provoke a response so that they can blame the evil Russians when they attack
    - it shows their lords and masters that they are doing something re poking Russia
    - it is a good source of bribery and corruption

    That's off the top of my head.

    PapaDragon
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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #26

    Post  PapaDragon on Tue Nov 22, 2016 10:34 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:It seems that Ukraine authorities are wanting to trade the two soldiers for their 5 that was captured by Russia this year.

    ..............

    F*ck that. How about Russia just captures some more, from across the border this time, and exchange those?

    But seriously, this is not some small time BS. They better handle this quick or otherwise those Ukrainian troopers who stayed in Crimea will have very good reasons to start questioning the wisdom of their choice.

    And I would not blame them If they seek some alternative solutions after this. Ukraine can start giving amnesties as well in exchange for services.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #26

    Post  miketheterrible on Tue Nov 22, 2016 11:52 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:It seems that Ukraine authorities are wanting to trade the two soldiers for their 5 that was captured by Russia this year.

    ..............

    F*ck that. How about Russia just captures some more, from across the border this time, and exchange those?

    But seriously, this is not some small time BS. They better handle this quick or otherwise those Ukrainian troopers who stayed in Crimea will have very good reasons to start questioning the wisdom of their choice.

    And I would not blame them If they seek some alternative solutions after this. Ukraine can start giving amnesties as well in exchange for services.

    Russia may just hand over the captured folk since the government seems to be currently massively pissed, since these two guys were in the neutral zone between the borders.

    Why they were in the neutral side to begin with is beyond me and I would put a major warning to the rest of the troops to actually stay within the Russian lines.

    This wont make anyone think twice. It took 5 years for Israel to get their man back. Russia will get theirs within the year to early next.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #26

    Post  MonkeymodelBananaRepublic on Wed Nov 23, 2016 1:39 pm

    Additional possible reasons for bombardments:

    - destroy new republics infrastructure
    - hurt new republics civilians to show them new republic is powerless/weak to protect them to try and weaken morale
    - hurt new republic economy/deter investors
    - Ukraine has man power shortage - so compensate for it by using up all soviet era ammunition in eastern Europe
    - prove to Ukraine people they are trying really hard to do something to bring rebel provinces back into fold and scare/hurt big bad bear (when in fact their doing very little)
    - demoralise/exhaust new republic soldiers who spend their day and night getting shelled
    - Ukraine can preserve its few and hard to replace rusting tanks
    - send a message/try and persuade new republic its not worth taking more territory cause look how much firepower i can throw your way
    - might help accelerate eastern europe integration into nato and weapon purchases as eastern europe accelerates its dumping of soviet era weapons and ammunition

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #26

    Post  George1 on Wed Nov 23, 2016 2:30 pm

    MOSCOW, November 23. /TASS/. Ukraine’s attitude towards the population in the Donbass region as a different cultural and genetic category of people raises doubts about Kiev’s willingness to comply with the Minsk agreements, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova stated on Wednesday.

    More:
    http://tass.com/politics/914132


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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #26

    Post  Ispan on Wed Nov 23, 2016 4:01 pm

    Breakthrough attempt in the south

    Seems very serious as these things are underreported. Officials say a platoon sized attack, I would expect it was actually a company if not a entire battallion

    https://dninews.com/article/ukrainian-break-trough-attempt-defended-dpr-15-soldiers-killed-and-wounded

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #26

    Post  higurashihougi on Thu Nov 24, 2016 6:30 am

    George1 wrote:MOSCOW, November 23. /TASS/. Ukraine’s attitude towards the population in the Donbass region as a different cultural and genetic category of people raises doubts about Kiev’s willingness to comply with the Minsk agreements, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova stated on Wednesday.

    More:
    http://tass.com/politics/914132

    So is this a more reason to accept Novorossia as independent republics Twisted Evil Twisted Evil after all Maidan refuse to see Novo as the same nation, so let's break Ukraina up Twisted Evil Twisted Evil

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #26

    Post  Benya on Thu Nov 24, 2016 11:18 pm

    MonkeymodelBananaRepublic wrote:Additional possible reasons for bombardments:

    - destroy new republics infrastructure
    - hurt new republics civilians to show them new republic is powerless/weak to protect them to try and weaken morale
    - hurt new republic economy/deter investors
    - Ukraine has man power shortage - so compensate for it by using up all soviet era ammunition in eastern Europe
    - prove to Ukraine people they are trying really hard to do something to bring rebel provinces back into fold and scare/hurt big bad bear (when in fact their doing very little)
    - demoralise/exhaust new republic soldiers who spend their day and night getting shelled
    - Ukraine can preserve its few and hard to replace rusting tanks
    - send a message/try and persuade new republic its not worth taking more territory cause look how much firepower i can throw your way
    - might help accelerate eastern europe integration into nato and weapon purchases as eastern europe accelerates its dumping of soviet era weapons and ammunition

    Yeah, that is the sad truth. Neutral

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #26

    Post  Benya on Fri Nov 25, 2016 12:05 am

    160 Tons Of Food And Medical Supplies Have Arrived From Mother Russia To Lugansk Republic , The 58th Humanitarian Aid Convoy ! Spasiba !

    The Russian Emergencies Ministry’s 58th humanitarian aid convoy has delivered about 160 tons of food and medications to the Lugansk People’s Republic, an LPR State Reserves Agency official told Lugansk Media Centre on Thursday.

    Seventeen EMERCOM trucks brought about 160 tons of supplies, including 46 tons of medication and medical supplies, baby formula (3.6 t), mashed vegetables (20.5 t), milk porridge (21 t), fruit mush (10.5 t), fruit juice (18 t) and meat mash (38.5 t), according to the official.

    Russia’s EMERCOM also sent 1.1 tons of essentials in individual assistance to Lyceum No 86.

    On 27 October, 14 EMERCOM trucks brought 180 tons of cargo to LPR, including medication and baby formula.

    The first Russian humanitarian aid convoy arrived in LPR on August 22, 2014. Russia’s EMERCOM has delivered more than 65,000 tons of humanitarian cargo to LPR and DPR residents since August 2014.

    Source: Arrow http://novorossia.today/160-tons-food-medical-supplies-arrived-mother-russia-lugansk-republic-58th-humanitarian-aid-convoy-spasiba/


    Thumbs up for Russia, they won't let Novorossiya down! thumbsup russia

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #26

    Post  eehnie on Fri Nov 25, 2016 12:15 am


    I tend to think that by the end Novorussia will surpass Ukraine and have more artillery (towed) than them.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #26

    Post  Benya on Fri Nov 25, 2016 12:17 am

    Ukraine faces chaos if no snap elections held

    Unless Ukraine resolves its political crisis through an early parliamentary election, it may undergo a military coup, disintegrate and become easy prey for Russia, ex-Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili said in an interview with the Kyiv Post.

    Early elections are necessary due to Ukraine’s pervasive corruption, a lack of trust in the political elite and economic stagnation, he said. The next scheduled parliamentary elections are in 2019 — but Ukrainians won’t wait that long, he said.

    “When the political class is delegitimized and has such low popularity, the only way out is through elections,” said Saakashvili, outlining his vision for Ukraine. “The next elections will be revolutionary ones because they will get rid of the entire political class.”

    As the third anniversary is under way of the EuroMaidan Revolution that forced President Viktor Yanukovych to flee power in 2014, frustration is growing with the authorities’ failure to achieve the revolution’s goals. With top officials’ fabulous wealth in electronic declarations revealed recently and no one punished for large-scale corruption and high-profile murders, society’s patience is running thin.

    Saakashvili talked to the Kyiv Post in the office of his newly-created Movement of New Forces, not far from Hrushevsky Street, where violent clashes took place during the EuroMaidan Revolution. Before the interview, he gave a pep talk to his supporters in a brightly lit conference hall of Europe Office Center.

    Saakashvili resigned as governor of Odesa Oblast on Nov. 7, accusing President Petro Poroshenko of blocking his efforts to reduce corruption in the region’s law enforcement bodies, civil service and customs – a claim denied by the president’s representatives. Saakashvili, a firebrand visionary who applied his zeal to Ukraine after leaving his native Georgia in 2013, later announced plans to launch a political party in an effort to come to power and replace Ukraine’s political establishment.

    While skeptics say there are no preconditions for early elections now, Saakashvili argues that they are inevitable due to public discontent with the authorities. “The post-Maidan government is very sensitive to public opinion,” he said.

    Saakashvili also criticized Western governments for opposing early elections in Ukraine, saying that in the West crises were usually resolved through a democratic vote.

    He said that large-scale protests were one of the scenarios that could lead to snap elections.

    Saakashvili argued that, by failing to reform itself and oust the corrupt political elite through early elections or create rule of law, Ukraine would become an easy target for Russia.

    “If Ukraine weakens, it will be very easy prey,” he said. “(Russian President Vladimir) Putin only has to sit on the fence and wait until Ukraine kills itself.”

    Saakashvili said that he saw “a real, clear threat of violence” if the crisis was not resolved. “In order to avoid real violence, we need to have democratic process,” he added.

    Saakashvili warned that there could be a coup by armed nationalist groups.

    “If we don’t have elections, 5,000 armed people can easily take over any government building here,” he said. “No one is going to resist.”

    He said that such a coup could be triggered by legislative concessions to Russian-separatist forces in the Donbas and could eventually lead to a “Yugoslav scenario for Ukraine.”

    “Then 5,000 people will take over Kharkiv and Odesa, and then these people will start shooting at each other,” he added.

    Another challenge facing Ukraine is economic stagnation. Saakashvili said that, if Ukraine’s economy grew at the rate forecast by the government, it would only get back to the pre-EuroMaidan level in 15 years.

    “I don’t think people have patience for that,” he said. “Ukraine as a state will be under threat of disappearing… We’re facing existential choices right now.”

    New generation

    Saakashvili said that — given the chance — voters will replace Ukraine’s corrupt political elite with a new post-EuroMaidan generation of reformers. In Odesa Oblast, Saakashvili’s team held competitions to recruit young professionals, including Western-educated ones, as his deputies, district chiefs and customs inspectors.

    “They should be given a chance to take over because they have experience of governing but didn’t have time to be corrupted or become part of the system,” he said. “We should elevate these people from the level of trouble makers to that of decision makers.”

    Many of the reformers who joined government after the EuroMaidan Revolution have been forced out or quit, citing sabotage of their efforts by Poroshenko and other top officials.

    “The second Maidan brought a thick layer of young guys – many of them are here – whom we recruited from all kinds of Western universities,” Saakashili said. “These guys have already gotten a taste of some limited success but also a taste of bitter frustration because they were not allowed to make real change.”
    Saakashvili’s party

    To propel a new generation of reformers to power, Saakashvili on Nov. 11 announced plans to create the Movement of New Forces.

    He said he would not take any money from oligarchs to fund his political project, prompting speculation that a lack of funding would hamper the party.
    Yet Saakashvili was confident that he would get enough financial support from small and mid-sized businesses.

    Currently, the reformist forces in Ukraine are split between the Movement of New Forces; Hvylia, a project announced in July by Saakashvili’s supporters; the Democratic Alliance, and the Force of the People.

    Saakashvili, who has distanced himself from Hvylia, dismissed the idea that the split weakens the reformist movement.

    He said that he was still open to cooperating and merging with the other reformist parties. But he said that they were “obssessed with the idea that they don’t need leaders.”

    “If there are no leaders, you don’t win and get 1 percent,” he added.
    There are currently no ratings of Saakashvili’s new party, while the rating of Hvylia amounted to 1.5 percent as of Nov. 13, according to the Kyiv International Sociology Institute.

    Premiership

    Saakashvili’s decision to create an opposition party followed his disappointment with Poroshenko, with whom he had been acquainted since they both studied at Kyiv National University in the 1980s.

    In September 2015 Poroshenko offered to appoint him as prime minister, Saakashvili said. But Saakashvili said he refused because Poroshenko did not agree to call an early parliamentary election.

    A source familiar with the matter told the Kyiv Post that Poroshenko had also changed his mind on appointing Saakashvili. The source, who was not authorized to speak to the press, attributed this to Poroshenko realizing that Saakashvili could be a threat to the corruption schemes of his allies.
    Saakashvili said that this scenario was also possible. “Poroshenko was seriously floating that idea (of making him prime minister),” he added. “Maybe it was a game.”

    Saboteur-in-chief

    Saakashvili said he had talked to Poroshenko two days before his resignation as governor of Odesa Oblast.

    “It was very clear that he wasn’t willing to help in Odesa,” he said. “First he stopped to help us in Odesa and then he started to actively sabotage us.”

    Saakashvili said he had told Poroshenko: “You are in dire straits. The economy’s bad, people are unhappy, you are facing armed chaos. Who’s going to protect you? You are basically alone and very vulnerable.”

    Saakashvili also said Poroshenko had tried to contact him after his resignation, but he had refused to talk.

    Drawing parallels with his drive to oust Georgian President Eduard Shevarnadze during the 2003 Rose Revolution, Saakashvili said that he “never talked to him” until he “went to accept his resignation.”

    “Poroshenko is part of the same old political class as Yanukovych… What difference does it make for ordinary Ukrainians who rips them off – Yanukovych cronies or Poroshenko cronies?”

    Saakashvili also said that Poroshenko was pressuring television channels to prevent them from interviewing him.

    The authorities are also considering reaching a deal with Bidzina Ivanishvili, the leader of Georgia’s ruling party, to strip Saakashvili of his Ukrainian citizenship and extradite him to Georgia, he added. In his native country, Saakashvili faces embezzlement and abuse of power charges that he believes to be fabricated and political.

    Poroshenko’s press office declined to comment.

    Stymied reform

    One of Saakashvili’s associates, National Police Chief Khatia Dekanoidze, resigned on Nov. 14. complaining about political interference and a lack of authority to bring about radical change.

    “Poroshenko agreed to the reform of the patrol police but he was not willing to reform the back office of the police because that’s where real political control is,” he said. “When the real leverage started, he did not want to give up an inch of it.”
    He also said that the ongoing judicial reform was a “way for Poroshenko to take control of the judiciary.”

    “At face value, it looks good,” he said. “But if you look at who’s selecting (new judges), it’s different.” Poroshenko’s top allies Ihor Kononenko and Oleksandr Hranovsky have been accused of controlling the selection of new judges, though they deny it.

    He also suggested replacing most of Ukraine’s judges and prosecutors with new ones and also hiring foreigners as judges.

    Success story.

    If Ukraine fails to carry out reforms, it is unlikely to get any assistance from United States President-elect Donald Trump, who has flirted with Russia and said he could accept its annexation of Crimea, Saakashvili said.

    Saakashvili, who has been acquianted with Trump for years, said that he would use this acquiantance to promote Ukraine’s interests if he got a position in the Ukrainian government.

    “Trump is attracted by success stories,” he said. “And in order to gain his attention, Ukraine needs to be successful… He doesn’t like losers.”

    Source: Arrow http://novorossia.today/ukraine-faces-chaos-if-no-snap-elections-held/

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #26

    Post  TheArmenian on Fri Nov 25, 2016 8:44 am

    Texas is badmouthing Strelkov. Even calling him a coward etc.

    I know that Texas is a member of Sut Vremenyy (essence of time) led by Kurginyan who had issue with Strelkov.

    Maybe Khepesh can shed more light into the differences and disagreements.


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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #26

    Post  Khepesh on Fri Nov 25, 2016 10:16 am

    Ok, so this is a complete re-write of original post....

    This is dirty washing that should not be shown in public and while I respect Texas for fighting, this was an unnecessary video, and it can of course be argued that so are Strelkov's. Better to keep mouth shut until after the war is won.

    This is not for Strelkov or against Texas and I will not take sides in this, yet some odd things are in this video and need addressing. I think we all know these points, but just for clarity:

    Strelkov says some ridiculous things, but I believe it is mostly out of frustration about non intervention in 2014 [To take at least all Novorossiya if not all Ukraine] and being removed from command. He is simply "bitching", and it is embarrassing.

    If Strelkov was a genuine "loose cannon" then it is difficult to understand why he was not removed months earlier, for instance during or at least immediately after Slavyansk. That he was in Donetsk for so long must have been with approval at highest level.

    Strelkov is an abrasive and arrogant man, that is clear, and made enemies. That he and they throw shit at each other is pointless, and Texas should not have joined in.

    To paint the withdrawl from Slavyansk as "running away" is ridiculous, and those who advocate this position should clearly state in military terms how Slavyansk could have been held with the men and equipment at Strelkov's disposal, and how he could have been reinforced without weakening the positions around Donetsk.

    Texas said that Strelkov ran back to Russia after Slavyansk. I hope everybody sees the falsity of this statement. And to follow, we all know Strelkov was removed from command, not "run away", and cannot return to Donbass, so it has to be asked why Texas is making these very obvious lies except that he is encouraged to do so by Kurginyan, an enemy of Strelkov.

    Texas asks who pays for Strelkov, and that is a valid question of course and needs answering. So, who pays for Kurginyan, the friend of oligarchs....

    The heart of the argument is that they have different ideas of the direction Russia should take, for Strelkov it is nationalist and monarchy, for Kurginyan it is more like Soviet Union. In broad terms, the reason Strelkov is not liked is, apart from his bitching, his harsh form of nationalism and tendency to view collapse of Soviet Union as some sort of belated "victory" for the "Whites", which it is not and is a gross distortion. The reason Kurginyan is not liked by the nationalists is while he was in favor of Khasbulatov, his interference in October 1993 where his actions against nationalist elements are seen as weakening the position of Khasbulatov and Rutskoy. That he then subsequently worked with the oligarchs makes him distrusted and hated by elements of both left and right. For instance, while the dispute with Strelkov is well known, and that Strelkov is on the "right". On the "left", for instance, to Boris Rozhin the Kurginyan aparat is seen as a dangerous sect and any posts from his supporters are usually deleted and the poster banned.

    However, an important point is that while both sides hate each other and hurl insults about the other being "traitors", the reality is that neither side are traitors.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #26

    Post  Ispan on Fri Nov 25, 2016 1:19 pm

    Many thanks for your enlightening post on Russian politics for those of us that do not know the language. I will pass it on to my Spanish readers.

    About the bombardments. We are almost in the third year of the war. Shouldn't the Ukrops start being low on artillery ammunition? We know they are low on rockets. They don't produce ammunition and can't import from other sources.

    I reckon that the shells fired by the ukrops are many more than what the reports say, and this is an error of translation, or deliberate misinfomration. I checked and in the original they say "raz", or "times". Each time they fire several shells, "Mage" said as much. It's materially impossible to count every explosion. also, sometimes the numbers look bogus. Only half a dozen tank shots in one of the hottest day? With dozens of tanks in the front lines and only one or two make a few shots? Not credible.

    Some days they talk about a hundred mortar bombs. But a platoon of six mortars can consume that amount in one minute of rapid firing. So even considering they are just harassing fire and not preparations, if they have just a hundred pieces in the frontline and every one just fires a few shells a day you get numbers of shells in the hundreds or thousands. So multiply each "raz" for a factor of ten at least.



    At MP net some antiRussian poster back in 2014 made a logistic calculation to prove that the way the Novorussians were using artillery, they were using up trainloads of them, and to him this proved that Russia was arming and supplying the rebels, since all Soviet era ammo dumps and arsenals were deployed in the west of the country, in order to supply an advance into Europe . However there never has been any conclusive evidence of such a logistical trail, until the last year. It seems that the explanation was that the Yuschenko government after the Georgia war in 2008, shifted the stores of ammunition and weapns to the border with Russia, and Donetsk and Lugansk ended up with a windfall of ammunition and other war materiel that enabled them to fight with a minimal Russian support.

    Of course Ukraine had such vast stockpiles of ammunition and the force engaged is relatively small, so even having sold or destroyed most of it since the 1990s, they had enough ammo for the war without needing to set up factories or import ammunition. One important thing is that most ammunition was to be disposed of, togther with land mines, but this being Ukraine, they never got around to it.

    A typical quiet day with about 200 artillery and mortar attacks. At an average of 10 shells for each "time" some howitzer or mortar fires, that gives us two thousand projectiles. At an average weight of shell of 10 kilos (totally arbitrary, to average both heavy caliber shells and medium mortar bombs), that means 20 tons of shells are fired every day, discounting propellant charges. That is about 10 trucks. At the very least the Ukranian forces consume then about 10,000 (ten thousand) tonnes of ammunition every year. Probably much more. I know the Soviet stockpiles were large, anyone has an estimate of how much was in storage? but surely they must be largely depleted by now. Mortar rounds they can get from NATO as they can be fired from Soviet tubes, but someday they are going to run low of artillery ammunition and I think at this rate they will not last another year.






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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #26

    Post  Khepesh on Fri Nov 25, 2016 3:00 pm

    I was struggling to sit on the fence when I wrote that, the first version was less balanced, and others will have a different opinion on the merits, or not, of Strelkov and Kurginyan. Both are noisy, neither is of any great relevance in Russian politics while there is Putin, or even after him.

    On the artillery. As too how much is stored and precisely where, I doubt any one person can give an answer that is not a guess as I doubt full records were kept, even if they should have been. Some months back I wrote saying that VSN were not having a problem getting artillery ammunition, but rather that there is so much that there were logistic problems transporting it to the front and unboxing the shells and propellant charges and preparing them for use, as this is a time consuming and onerous task. While it is known about large ex Soviet stocks in Donetsk and Lugansk, ukrops have access to similar stocks in Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhye as well as normal stocks around the country. I doubt they, just as VSN, have much problem finding ammunition. I certainly think the totals given for how much is fired per day is a guess and that the real totals are higher, but maybe not much. I think that ukrops rarely fire with more than one battery in any single location and that the instance a few months back of an entire artillery battalion firing at VSN positions on the edges of Makeevka was far from normal. If google earth was up to date it would give an indication by seeing how cratered the front line hot spots are, but images for all those areas are at least one year out of date. Cynically I presume because new images would show how badly DNR areas are cratered and how clean are ukrops occupied areas. I doubt if ammunition availability will become an issue unless full scale and protracted bombardments take place. A battery of Grad firing full volly is impressive and deadly, but several battalions of Grad firing and with them several battalions of tubed artillery firing over several hours has not been seen in this war, and it is that, day after day, which will deplete supplies. If the reports are true, then ukrops over the course of this year have moved onto the Volnovakha area enough rockets for about 400 full vollys of Grad, and this is additional to what they already had at the front, yet they are known to have fired maybe not more than a dozen individual rockets, two this week.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #26

    Post  Khepesh on Fri Nov 25, 2016 5:58 pm

    About Texas, while it is still news. His main attack was about Strelkov "admiring" pravy sektor, so, it should be pointed out that Zakharchenko last year said the same about pravy sektor as did Strelkov. He said he admired them for standing against Poroshenko. Obviously Zakharchenko would shoot Yarosh and all his men, as would Strelkov, so why has Texas decided to take Strelkov's words out of context in a very unpleasant attack, and not mention that Zakharchenko had said the same. Did he even know what Zakharchenko had said, and will he now confront him for being a "fascist sympathizer", I doubt it. Why has Texas decided to attack Strelkov and so create divide in support for Novorossiya, for that is what he has done. Clearly there are different factions and bad blood, but not at the front, not openly within DNR, slightly different in LNR of course. Why has he now made a big shit and decided to throw it into fan? Curious, and in Kiev they will laugh. If he wants to engage in politics in such a confrontational and divisive way, then go to Moscow and engage in debate with Strelkov face to face, maybe on TV with Zhirinovsky as well so we can all enjoy a shouting match and maybe some fighting. If he wants to act in a clown show then get out of the front line, get out of Donbass and join the circus with Strelkov and others. Hopefully somebody will whisper in his ear and he will stop this before his reputation, already coming under sudden scrutiny, is seriously damaged.


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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #26

    Post  franco on Fri Nov 25, 2016 9:38 pm

    Khepesh wrote:I was struggling to sit on the fence when I wrote that, the first version was less balanced, and others will have a different opinion on the merits, or not, of Strelkov and Kurginyan. Both are noisy, neither is of any great relevance in Russian politics while there is Putin, or even after him.

    On the artillery. As too how much is stored and precisely where, I doubt any one person can give an answer that is not a guess as I doubt full records were kept, even if they should have been. Some months back I wrote saying that VSN were not having a problem getting artillery ammunition, but rather that there is so much that there were logistic problems transporting it to the front and unboxing the shells and propellant charges and preparing them for use, as this is a time consuming and onerous task. While it is known about large ex Soviet stocks in Donetsk and Lugansk, ukrops have access to similar stocks in Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhye as well as normal stocks around the country. I doubt they, just as VSN, have much problem finding ammunition. I certainly think the totals given for how much is fired per day is a guess and that the real totals are higher, but maybe not much. I think that ukrops rarely fire with more than one battery in any single location and that the instance a few months back of an entire artillery battalion firing at VSN positions on the edges of Makeevka was far from normal. If google earth was up to date it would give an indication by seeing how cratered the front line hot spots are, but images for all those areas are at least one year out of date. Cynically I presume because new images would show how badly DNR areas are cratered and how clean are ukrops occupied areas. I doubt if ammunition availability will become an issue unless full scale and protracted bombardments take place. A battery of Grad firing full volly is impressive and deadly, but several battalions of Grad firing and with them several battalions of tubed artillery firing over several hours has not been seen in this war, and it is that, day after day, which will deplete supplies. If the reports are true, then ukrops over the course of this year have moved onto the Volnovakha area enough rockets for about 400 full vollys of Grad, and this is additional to what they already had at the front, yet they are known to have fired maybe not more than a dozen individual rockets, two this week.

    From what I can gather the violation totals include everything from rifle shots through grenade launchers up to rocket launchers. Not a large amount in that context... unless of course you are on the receiving end.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #26

    Post  Benya on Sat Nov 26, 2016 8:47 am

    Kiev unilaterally decides to conduct missile launches near Crimea

    The move has not been agreed with the Russian authorities concerned, although the routes of both civilian and government aircraft lie through the risky zones

    MOSCOW, November 25. /TASS/. Ukraine has made a unilateral decision to conduct missile launches near Crimea, close to routes used by civilian and government aircraft, the Russian civil aviation authority Rosaviatsiya said.

    "In violation of all international agreements Ukraine has made a unilateral decision to conduct missile launches in Russia’s sovereign airspace in the Simferopol flight information region (FIR). On November 24, 2016 Ukraine issued a notification (Notice to Airmen - NOTAM) on activating risky airspace zones in connection with missile launches due on December 1 and 2, 2016," Rosaviatsiya told TASS.

    Risky zones

    According to Rosaviatsiya, "one risky zone" will be effective from 09:00 to 19:00 Moscow time on December 1 and 2 at all altitudes to incorporate part of airspace over the high seas within the zone of Russia’s area of responsibility (the Simferopol center).

    The other risky zone will be effective from 12:30 to 14:30 Moscow time on December 1, 2016 and from 11:00 to 15:00 Moscow time on December 2, 2016 at all altitudes to incorporate part of the airspace over the high seas within Russia’s area of responsibility (the Simferopol center) and also airspace over Russia’s territorial waters (with a maximum depth of 12 kilometers).

    "The issue of these NOTAMs has not been agreed with the Russian authorities concerned or the Russian provider of air navigation services, although the routes of both civilian and government aircraft lie through these zones," Rosaviatsiya said.

    Civil aviation flights over Crimea

    Russia will ban flights over the Crimea, unless Ukraine cancels its decision to hold missile firing drills over the Black Sea peninsula, Russian aviation watchdog spokesman Sergei Izvolsky told Rossiya-24 TV Channel.

    "No flights will be performed in the banned areas, if Ukraine does not cancel its decision," the spokesman said.

    http://tass.com/defense/914725

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #26

    Post  miketheterrible on Sat Nov 26, 2016 9:07 am

    A good counter to this is to shoot the missiles down as a proof to Ukraine.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #26

    Post  Benya on Sat Nov 26, 2016 9:30 am

    miketheterrible wrote:A good counter to this is to shoot the missiles down as a proof to Ukraine.

    Yeah. Russia even has an S-400 SAM regiment stationed at the peninsula, plus they have a radar regiment there, so ukrainian missile launches in the vicinity of Crimea will not remain unseen.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #26

    Post  JohninMK on Sat Nov 26, 2016 10:56 am

    Benya wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:A good counter to this is to shoot the missiles down as a proof to Ukraine.

    Yeah. Russia even has an S-400 SAM regiment stationed at the peninsula, plus they have a radar regiment there, so ukrainian missile launches in the vicinity of Crimea will not remain unseen.
    Just another provocation. Bet there will be an RC-135 in attendance just in case Russia activates the SAM radars.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #26

    Post  miketheterrible on Sat Nov 26, 2016 11:35 am

    JohninMK wrote:
    Benya wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:A good counter to this is to shoot the missiles down as a proof to Ukraine.

    Yeah. Russia even has an S-400 SAM regiment stationed at the peninsula, plus they have a radar regiment there, so ukrainian missile launches in the vicinity of Crimea will not remain unseen.
    Just another provocation. Bet there will be an RC-135 in attendance just in case Russia activates the SAM radars.

    Probably.

    Hence why it is a good idea at times to even use/activate older radar systems that the US cannot gain anymore knowledge on, and shoot it down with Pantsir's or something else.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #26

    Post  Ispan on Sat Nov 26, 2016 12:16 pm

    franco wrote:
    From what I can gather the violation totals include everything from rifle shots through grenade launchers up to rocket launchers. Not a large amount in that context... unless of course you are on the receiving end.

    I found my previous report.

    https://guerraenucrania.wordpress.com/2016/07/18/informe-resumen-guerra-de-desgaste-mayo-junio/

    From March to June, the average proportion of shelling attacks with artillery increased. The violations back then were separated, there was a running total for artillery and mortar fire, and another for all other kinds of weapons.

    March, 7.300 bombardments (aprox 40% with artillery)
    April 9.100 bombardments (aprox 50% with artillery)
    May 6.100 bombardments (aprox 50%with artillery)
    June 14.500 bombardments (aprox 65% with artillery)


    If every occasion ("raz") was a single shell, that's just 200 daily cannon shells and mortar bombs for the lowest period. Spread all along the front in a 24h period that is only sporadic violations and we could speak of a real cease fire. The fact that everybody, including the German FM admit that the cease fire is not working points out that the amount of shot fired is much higher.

    The most reliable indicator are casualties. Ukranian sources admitted 3,500 seriously wounded from Jan-May. Adding one dead for every 3 wounded, that's about 5,000 casualties or 1,000 a month or 30 daily.

    https://dninews.com/node/5762

    Now, specially in a positional war like this, the fact, statistically proven, is that it takes mountains of shells and bullets to inflict a casualty. In battles in the Napoleonic period, less than 5% of the musket bullets hit a target. In modern warfare I believe that only 1 in every 100 bullets fired hits somebody, and that is being generous. Likewise with artillery and mortars that inflict 2/3rds of the casualties.

    So if we accept at face value that the reports are talking about single shells, and the Novorussians are hitting back with a similar volume of fire, or much smaller because they are under orders to not retaliate unless neccessary, we go with the lowest estimate for the period, let's assume our side fires 200 daily shells on average at ukrops positions.

    To inflict 30 daily casualties with just 200 shells would be unbelieveable accuracy even with laser guided ammunition. It takes only half a dozen shells to kill or wound somebody. I would multiply that by a factor of 10 at least.

    A quick glance at Soviet artillery norms points out that to achieve "neutralization" (inflicting 10% casualties) against troops in the open recquires 20 x 122mm shells on 1 hectarea. Against troops in trenches, and both sides have been dug in for 2 years, it takes ten times that. You are referred to the tables below.

    http://allanea.tripod.com/psuo96-11.html

    http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/policy/army/fm/100-61/Ch9.htm#s6

    So to inflict 30 casualties a day, it takes the Novorussian artillery and mortars to fire 2,000 (two-thousand) shells and bombs.

    Conversely, even admitting that most of the time every cease fire violation by the Ukros is only a battery firing a one salvo, or a mortar lobbing four or five shells, average number of shells fired on each occasion ("raz" or "violation") must be tenfold. Shells fired are on the hundreds and thousands everyday. Firing from other weapons such as AGS auto grenade launchers, RPGs, small arms and machineguns must be correspondingly much higher. Most of it is wasted, but with so many metal flying around somebody is going to be hit, even if just by pure statistic probability, or bad luck, if you prefer.

    We have confirmation of how bad things are from other sources. OSCE reports sometimes count a higher number of explosions around Donetsk than what the official DPR report says if we equated "times" with "single shells". During heavy enemy bombardment, locals report on the intense outgoing fire of our side.
    Some videos that come from the front just as the fighting for Avdeyevka PROMKO show very intense firing.

    This artillery war is not anywhere near in intensity to the Western Front in WWI, but is a real trench war and the situation is much worse than the official reports say. Language barrier, errors in translation and ignorance of the journalists reporting further obscure what is really going on.


    In my July blog entry, I estimated that the Ukrops had used 4.000 tons of artillery ammunition (double checked, excluding mortars) in the first six months of 2016. By years end the same amount or higher, perhaps ten thousand tons.

    Add to this the consumption for 2015 (moderate) and for 2014 (high), and I can only conclude this cannot go on for much longer.

    Somebody that speaks Russian and is familiar with the Soviet army might look in forums or Soviet era archives how many divisions were deployed in the Ukraine prior to Soviet Union dissolution, and estimate their ammunition stockpiles. Each division is alloted a certain number of supplies and ammunition reserves. How much ammo had the Soviet army stockpiled for war with NATO? 3 months? A years' worth?

    Let's say they had ammunition for one year for one million troops, considering that Ukraine Military District was the forward supply base for any war in Central Europe. Ukraine's army is a hundred thousand troops. So if the Soviet stockpiles were intact, they would have then enough ammo for 10 years. But discounting that much of the ammo has since 1991 been sold, recycled, and of what was left in 2014 large stocks were lost at Crimea and Donbass, since Yuschenko moved the ammunition from the West to the East to prepare for war with Russia... well, in the most optimistic estimate they have enough ammunition for 5 years at this rate. So it would be not a concern.

    But the fact that they have to conserve rocket ammo and that they are getting ammo supplies from Lithuania among others makes me think the Ukrainian army will at sometime run out of ammo at this rate, sooner if there's intense fighting. I think they have less than a year left.








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