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    How to collapse the EU? - Brexit

    Aristide
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    Post  Aristide on Mon May 27, 2019 5:13 pm

    flamming_python wrote:May resigned because the British elite know that announcing a 2nd referendum on Brexit (as they would prefer to do) won't go down well with half the country's population.

    So the political class went for the sneaky approach. The new leader can adopt an opposing position and turn their back on Brexit for now; saying it was all Teresa May's responsibility but he is not Teresa May. Then promise new negotiations at some point in the future.
    Or they can declare a 2nd referendum as part of their position.. and if they're nominated for PM (by the rest of their party), well then that's just democracy at work isn't it.

    May of course is no fool, nor do I think she was inherently some bad negotiator. She just couldn't stomach the idea of a no-deal Brexit. Neither could the Conservative party in general. So they just fumbled and delayed the negotiations in the hope of some way out of an untenable position. Now they've found it.

    There is another interesting effect. The unifying force of an outside enemy.

    Before this BREXIT stuff i was totally against the EU. Same counts for all far right parties in the EU.

    That change dramatical. RN from Le Pen does not support leaving EU anymore. Same counts for german AfD and italian Lega Nord.

    Its strange because i saw myself high above such petty feelings which are used to control peasants.

    But it actully seem really to work. Never before was the EU so united as this case.

    flamming_python
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    Post  flamming_python on Mon May 27, 2019 11:01 pm

    Aristide wrote:
    flamming_python wrote:May resigned because the British elite know that announcing a 2nd referendum on Brexit (as they would prefer to do) won't go down well with half the country's population.

    So the political class went for the sneaky approach. The new leader can adopt an opposing position and turn their back on Brexit for now; saying it was all Teresa May's responsibility but he is not Teresa May. Then promise new negotiations at some point in the future.
    Or they can declare a 2nd referendum as part of their position.. and if they're nominated for PM (by the rest of their party), well then that's just democracy at work isn't it.

    May of course is no fool, nor do I think she was inherently some bad negotiator. She just couldn't stomach the idea of a no-deal Brexit. Neither could the Conservative party in general. So they just fumbled and delayed the negotiations in the hope of some way out of an untenable position. Now they've found it.

    There  is another interesting effect. The unifying force of an outside enemy.

    Before this BREXIT stuff i was totally against the EU. Same counts for all far right parties in the EU.

    That change dramatical. RN from Le Pen does not support leaving EU anymore. Same counts for german AfD and italian Lega Nord.

    Its strange because i saw myself high above such petty feelings which are used to control peasants.

    But it actully seem really to work. Never before was the EU so united as this case.


    So when someone decides to leave the EU they become an outside enemy that the EU unites against?
    Nice union No
    Aristide
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    Post  Aristide on Mon May 27, 2019 11:08 pm

    flamming_python wrote:
    Aristide wrote:
    flamming_python wrote:May resigned because the British elite know that announcing a 2nd referendum on Brexit (as they would prefer to do) won't go down well with half the country's population.

    So the political class went for the sneaky approach. The new leader can adopt an opposing position and turn their back on Brexit for now; saying it was all Teresa May's responsibility but he is not Teresa May. Then promise new negotiations at some point in the future.
    Or they can declare a 2nd referendum as part of their position.. and if they're nominated for PM (by the rest of their party), well then that's just democracy at work isn't it.

    May of course is no fool, nor do I think she was inherently some bad negotiator. She just couldn't stomach the idea of a no-deal Brexit. Neither could the Conservative party in general. So they just fumbled and delayed the negotiations in the hope of some way out of an untenable position. Now they've found it.

    There  is another interesting effect. The unifying force of an outside enemy.

    Before this BREXIT stuff i was totally against the EU. Same counts for all far right parties in the EU.

    That change dramatical. RN from Le Pen does not support leaving EU anymore. Same counts for german AfD and italian Lega Nord.

    Its strange because i saw myself high above such petty feelings which are used to control peasants.

    But it actully seem really to work. Never before was the EU so united as this case.


    So when someone decides to leave the EU they become an outside enemy that the EU unites against?
    Nice union No

    Thats a normal thing. Think about american civil war for example. When you are a union and one wants to leave, it certainly is not a good feeling.

    Its like a friend. If a friend comes to me and tells me he doesnt want to be my friend anymore i would see that as extremly hostile.
    flamming_python
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    Post  flamming_python on Mon May 27, 2019 11:24 pm

    Aristide wrote:
    Thats a normal thing. Think about american civil war for example. When you are a union and one wants to leave, it certainly is not a good feeling.

    Its like a friend. If a friend comes to me and tells me he doesnt want to be my friend anymore i would see that as extremly hostile.

    Well maybe that's what it looks like from Europe's vantage point.

    I can imagine that from Britain's vantage point though; it's really more like the English civil war.

    When your King with his Catholic wife starts to become a little too chummy with the Catholic world (i.e. Europe), while dismissing Parliament (what passed for the people back then) whenever he feels like it. Soon you're wondering whether he's acting in the best interests of the kingdom.

    Aristide wrote:
    That said, Northern Ireland was in civil war since decades. A closed broder would bring that back. The majority of people in Northern Ireland doesnt want a closed border.

    Scotland doesnt want leave EU as well.

    You're right, most don't.

    But unless I'm mistaken, the Good Friday agreements provide for the peaceful unification of Ireland if a clear majority in Northern Ireland expresses that desire at some point in the future.
    So they always have that option. Until then they should just deal with the fact that they're part of the UK and that foreign policy is made in Westminister and 10 Downing St., and not Stormont.
    I do accept that it's a potentially volatile situation there though, especially with the changing demographics ther now starting to show a Catholic majority. One can imagine how the harder-line Protestants might react if they feel that their back is to the wall and unification is imminent. But still, this is Britain's problem, not the EU's.
    As for what the Rep. of Ireland wants - that's neither here nor there.

    The same deal with the Scots. They had their referendum. They opted to stay in. Which entailed that once again, they're comfy with their current level of autonomy and that they accepted that the big decisions will continue to be made in London, for better or for worse. It's like marriage really. You can't jointly reaffirm your vows and then kick up a fuss and threaten to leave a couple of months later over the first conflict of interest. I mean you can - but you really should have thought about the commitment you were making in the first place.
    Aristide
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    Post  Aristide on Tue May 28, 2019 10:32 am

    I think the main problem was, that BREXIT always was based on a lie.

    Crooks like Johnson told the people that the UK can leave, keep all the positive aspects of the EU but doesnt pay its fees anymore.

    The 2nd big miscalculation was, that the UK didn´t believe that the EU would stand united in this.

    The UK miscalculated completly.

    If the EU would allow all the good aspects without paying your share, the EU could dissolve itself.

    What was decided, was that the UK will be punished. The UK didn´t hear the bells ringing, when France named Michel Barnier as chief negotiator.

    Barnier is a notorious UK-hater.

    When the full reality hit the UK, loser Johnson stepped back and then chaos unfolded.

    While the EU stands united, UK showed internal chaos. Regions like NI and Scotland revolting and openly flirting with their own BREXIT from the UK.

    A Queen losing her temper and talking into politics by supporting the EU. A incompetent prime minister May who has become a joke and internet meme
    and an impotent parliament.

    I dont think Brexit will happen anymore at all. Many british business has moved to the EU. Big banks left London. Airlines left the UK.

    Airbus said in case of BREXIT, Airbus will leave.

    What i find interesting though is how old enemyship between UK and France broke open.

    It appears old enemyship never ends. France and Germany for example get better along than France and UK.

    And i admit we act not very fair. Its a bad french habit. When we see us winning, we act often pompous.
    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK on Tue May 28, 2019 2:44 pm

    Not sure where you get that line about the UK electorate being 'lied' to. As a fully paid up lifetime member of that group I don't recognize your claim. We were and are fully aware of the downsides as well as the upsides. No-one believed any crap that politicians spouted about keeping all the good things at no cost, we knew that the open market was depended on a whole lot of other factors like freedom of movement. The latter incidentally being a, if not the, major reason for the vote's result.

    I, and my friends who voted the same way as me, had no illusions about the decision we took to vote Brexit. We believed, perhaps naively, that the UK could put together a decent negotiating team (like the many that exist in our business community) who would sort out a fair to both sides deal. That was not to be, we were betrayed by our own government and that is why the Brexit Party is now the second largest in the EU Parliament.

    The Queen never supported the EU. No-one outside a select few know her views on anything political.

    No business of major import has upped sticks and left the EU, parts of yes.

    I agree with your last comment, but it applies wider than you state. Just look at the way de Gaullle ponced around when he had to move to London when France collapsed in WW2, yet it didn't stop the RAF over the next few years killing more French people than the entire previous periods of animosity combined.
    Aristide
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    Post  Aristide on Tue May 28, 2019 5:23 pm

    JohninMK wrote:Not sure where you get that line about the UK electorate being 'lied' to. As a fully paid up lifetime member of that group I don't recognize your claim. We were and are fully aware of the downsides as well as the upsides. No-one believed any crap that politicians spouted about keeping all the good things at no cost, we knew that the open market was depended on a whole lot of other factors like freedom of movement. The latter incidentally being a, if not the, major reason for the vote's result.

    I, and my friends who voted the same way as me, had no illusions about the decision we took to vote Brexit. We believed, perhaps naively, that the UK could put together a decent negotiating team (like the many that exist in our business community) who would sort out a fair to both sides deal. That was not to be, we were betrayed by our own government and that is why the Brexit Party is now the second largest in the EU Parliament.

    The Queen never supported the EU. No-one outside a select few know her views on anything political.

    No business of major import has upped sticks and left the EU, parts of yes.

    I agree with your last comment, but it applies wider than you state. Just look at the way de Gaullle ponced around when he had to move to London when France collapsed in WW2, yet it didn't stop the RAF over the next few years killing more French people than the entire previous periods of animosity combined.

    Well, the UK is and always was an enemy to France. The way France acts in all of this, shows the animosity. It doesnt matter who is president here. You wont find one who would be friendly towards the UK.

    I think the argentinians made their only big strike at the malvinas war at a british ship with french rockets. There was a documentation here that told that with much pride.

    As for the rest, many great international banks move their HQ from London to Paris. Airbus will leave as well.

    France works hard to kick the UK also out of defense projects and security projects ect.

    I have to admit the UK has become easy prey because absolute incompetent negotiations team and a pm i would think is simply retarded. If we switch roles and France would be in your place i would believe our government is working against its own country. You can be incompetent but not on that level.
    flamming_python
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    Post  flamming_python on Tue May 28, 2019 6:09 pm

    Aristide wrote:Well, the UK is and always was an enemy to France. The way France acts in all of this, shows the animosity. It doesnt matter who is president here. You wont find one who would be friendly towards the UK.

    Wasn't the UK one of France's greatest allies just this time last year, over the whole Skripal thing, when you were calling for solidarity and all the rest of it?

    Now it's "the UK is and always was an enemy to France".

    You know I think that PapaDragon fella was right - you're an immigrant to France or some such who's purposefuly taking as an outrageous a position as possible in order to smear your adopted country France.
    Well I can't guess at your motives. However some of the things you say, in fact more than some - are just pure moontalk.
    Aristide
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    Post  Aristide on Tue May 28, 2019 6:25 pm

    flamming_python wrote:
    Aristide wrote:Well, the UK is and always was an enemy to France. The way France acts in all of this, shows the animosity. It doesnt matter who is president here. You wont find one who would be friendly towards the UK.

    Wasn't the UK one of France's greatest allies just this time last year, over the whole Skripal thing, when you were calling for solidarity and all the rest of it?

    Now it's "the UK is and always was an enemy to France".

    You know I think that PapaDragon fella was right - you're an immigrant to France or some such who's purposefuly taking as an outrageous a position as possible in order to smear your adopted country France.
    Well I can't guess at your motives. However some of the things you say, in fact more than some - are just pure moontalk.

    I can trace half my family here back 700 years. Doesnt sound very immigrant for me.

    That said, you obviously dont know history. Basicly one of our most honored state persons are spoken holy because her war against the british. French / british relations were always based on animosity. I advice you to learn history.

    You obviously also never read Machiavelli. Im a french patriot. I see other countries like cattle. In one day useful and next day get rid of them.

    I dont smear my country, i love it with all my heart.

    At moment holding UK down is in best interest of France. Since Trump became hostile as well, its also in best interest to play nice with Russia.
    George1
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    Post  George1 on Fri Dec 13, 2019 8:24 am

    Conservatives win majority vote

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    flamming_python
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    Post  flamming_python on Fri Dec 13, 2019 9:17 am

    Ouch

    Corbyn got annihilated
    Hole
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    Post  Hole on Fri Dec 13, 2019 11:31 am

    The western MSM told everybody that Russia wants Corbyn to win (because he is a communist agent). And Russia wanted Brexit. But until now nobody claimed Johnsons good result was made possible by russian interference. Weird, isn´t it? Laughing
    Regular
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    Post  Regular on Fri Dec 13, 2019 12:32 pm

    That was Hillary - Trump situation.

    No of them were good for Russia nor UK for that matter.
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    Post  nlyh on Fri Dec 13, 2019 9:08 pm

    Labour did very well (all things considered) in 2017.

    They went wrong here by changing their stance on Brexit, and going down the path of a 2nd referendum. All the solid labour strongholds in the North were big on leaving the EU.
    flamming_python
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    Post  flamming_python on Sat Dec 14, 2019 12:33 am

    nlyh wrote:Labour did very well (all things considered) in 2017.

    They went wrong here by changing their stance on Brexit, and going down the path of a 2nd referendum. All the solid labour strongholds in the North were big on leaving the EU.

    Yup

    Hindsight is 50:50 though

    I get Corbyn's strategy. He had the far-left vote down, thought he had the wider working class vote down, so he tried to broaden his appeal to the London cosmopolite class by promising a 2nd referendum, appeal to as much of the electorate as possible while still keeping his socialist vision and manifesto.
    Only it backfired. He kept the socialist vote and got a lot of the London hipster and lower-middle class vote, only to lose much of the working class vote that had been drifting towards nationalism and leaving the EU.
    Shoulda kept to his principles; that's what got him to the elections as Labour leader after all. The EU borgouise union has nothing to do with socialism and leaving it is the only position that can be consistent with his own platform.

    He never would have got a majority regardless, and the end result might have been a hung parliament with a better Labour result and a much bigger Liberal Democrat one after hoovering up those London voters.
    But he would have kept his leadership of the party

    Well now we're in unknown territory. I'm all for Brexit but it looks like it's going to come with a lot of nationalism; English, Scottish, Irish, Welsh - and a neo-liberal Conservative policy that's going to privatize everything left.
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    Post  nlyh on Sat Dec 14, 2019 2:21 am

    I don't think it's going to be easy for the Tories though, even with their new majority.

    Once Brexit is done, that leaves very little for the Conservatives to draw on. They made a lot of claims about protecting the NHS, ending austerity, putting more police on the streets etc which was designed to compete with the very popular policies proposed by Labour such as renationalising the rail and what not. If they fail there, they can easily get into some serious trouble.

    I've heard long time socialist Labour voters who were also very strongly anti EU makes some interesting points about voting Tory this election (For me that is still far too much to stomach). For example, railway workers who want the railways to be renationalised but pointed out that a 2nd referendum leading to a remain victory would mean renationalisation would not be possible under the EU's 4th railways package. So they voted Tory to "Get brexit done" once and for all, and then vote labour next time around. Very dangerous and risky, but still with some merit in their point of view.

    If Labour had ended up winning, did the 2nd ref and remain won, a lot of the stuff on their manifesto would not be possible or at least be extremely difficult to pull off due to overwhelming pressures, mandates and such from the EU.
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Sat Dec 14, 2019 2:26 am

    What chance did he ever have the entire western media were against him... and lets face it... it was probably BBC bias that helped the Scottish vote to stay with the UK.

    I suspect Corbyns best tactic would be to say... look... we have had a vote about Brexit and the people voted to leave, but the economic and political cost of this is going to be severe for the entire country.
    There was never a real fair and free and open discussion on why Britain wanted to leave the EU, or on the implications of what would happen to Britain and the EU if they did... if I were Corbyn I would run on the promise (which unlike politicians, I would actually keep) to have sensible proper discussions where a broad range of Britains public can have a say... ask questions or just make statements that can go on record, to be followed up by a referendum offering real options.

    The vote regarding leaving the EU clearly shows the British public are against the EU... but what does that mean?

    Are they opposed to the EU market and cooperation on space and science and other factors, or are they sick and tired of the EU in Brussels... an unelected unaccountable group that dictates to the rest of the EU telling them what to do as a country... I suspect it is the latter... and perhaps a percentage of people voting to leave would be be happy to stay if there were some serious reforms in the way the EU works and its power and influence on policy at the local level. I also expect a large percentage of the people who voted to stay would also want that too... perhaps they just didn't want to break out of their biggest economic market.

    I doubt Johnston has even thought about this... he doesn't look like the sharpest knife in the drawer...

    I suspect the biggest issue with Brexit was that it was sold without real debate or consideration of all the consequences that will result, and also the reasons for voting the way they did, because the UK clearly benefits from being part of the EU, perhaps a few changes in the way the EU works might suit a lot of countries in the EU too... Brussels might get upset, but who cares about them?

    The way their former allies and neighbours have turned on them should be a useful lesson in itself for the UK... and EU statements that they wouldn't accept an independent Scotland if the UK left are interesting too... how petty of them... and also short sighted... I suspect refusing to let Scotland enter the EU would put a damper on Scottish independence and Scottish independence might have been a factor that changed the minds of those wanting to leave the EU...

    Ah well... it is a total mess and I doubt Boris will fix it to anyones satisfaction... he will be on a hiding to nothing... (ie he as an impossible job).
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    Post  flamming_python on Sat Dec 14, 2019 2:48 am

    nlyh wrote:I don't think it's going to be easy for the Tories though, even with their new majority.

    Once Brexit is done, that leaves very little for the Conservatives to draw on. They made a lot of claims about protecting the NHS, ending austerity, putting more police on the streets etc which was designed to compete with the very popular policies proposed by Labour such as renationalising the rail and what not. If they fail there, they can easily get into some serious trouble.

    I've heard long time socialist Labour voters who were also very strongly anti EU makes some interesting points about voting Tory this election (For me that is still far too much to stomach). For example, railway workers who want the railways to be renationalised but pointed out that a 2nd referendum leading to a remain victory would mean renationalisation would not be possible under the EU's 4th railways package. So they voted Tory to "Get brexit done" once and for all, and then vote labour next time around. Very dangerous and risky, but still with some merit in their point of view.

    If Labour had ended up winning, did the 2nd ref and remain won, a lot of the stuff on their manifesto would not be possible or at least be extremely difficult to pull off due to overwhelming pressures, mandates and such from the EU.

    Nope the Tories are going to have their hands full with Brexit and will mess it up of course, as well as continuing the failed policies of the past 20 years where housing prices in London have increased 2-3 fold over the past 15 years while people's incomes have only gone up by a fraction of that.

    They'll do nothing for the people on benefits in economically depressed regions, they won't build new industries or provide jobs for them - instead they'll just cut those benefits.

    Brexit is in principle an opportunity, but I don't see the Conservative party having any competence to take advantage of that.
    Funnily enough Corbyn's plan and manifesto was perfect for a Brexit scenario. Well so much for that.

    Anyway nothing great awaits Britain. The Scots and the Irish will be restless and could well move to split off in the next 4 years.
    Labour I hope will stick to its rediscovered left-wing roots, and they don't need Corbyn for that - they just need to stick to their new platform and keep the Blairite scum at arm's length. After a disastrous Tory term, Labour would be well placed to win a comeback.
    Aristide
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    Post  Aristide on Tue Dec 17, 2019 6:59 am

    The UK never was part of the EU. It was american 5th collumn. Not in Schengen, not in €. Always pushing american interests first. That they are out is good. Even better would be to get Sxotland and NI free.

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