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    Russia's National Defense Strategy issues

    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible on Sun Oct 13, 2019 3:49 am

    franco wrote:Institute for Political and Military Analysis is a Moscow based Russian non-government Think Tank, who also does research for the Russian government, security services, military and business. Members are for the most part considered conservative by Western sources as opposed to liberal. My take on the article was the writer was complaining the Russian government and military were not putting enough defensive resources in the East. Most Westerns are oblivious to the fact that Putin's main opposition in Russia is not the western style liberals but Communists first followed closely by conservative Russian nationalists.

    Russia has way more threats at the Western border than east. They haven't ignored the east since they are building a new navy base in kurils and they are renovating old Soviet airforce bases. But their threat is mostly Japan and US in that area. And they are sufficient.
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Sun Oct 13, 2019 6:24 am

    The whole point of vehicle families is to shorten the logistics train and increase both performance and mobility.

    China is not an enemy of Russia and even if they were how much ground could they even grab and hold for any period of time?

    The economic and political cost would be enormous... the west would wet their pants seeing two major rivals destroying each other in this way...

    And also the comments about MLRS range... range is not unimportant, but you need excellent C4IR to be useful.

    When Israel captured Russian/Soviet Grad rockets and decided to make their own copy they modified the design... they didn't increase the range, the modifications they made actually reduced its range... they fitted a heavier more powerful more effective warhead.

    No point having a 400km range unguided rocket system unless you have reliable recon assets that can continuously deliver you target information about targets out to that range.

    Most of the time I doubt the Americans could manage that... they would start hitting weddings and funerals etc etc.

    When supporting a ground force, unless the purpose is to allow your rocket batteries to operate 300km away from the unit they are supporting by hitting enemy forces within 100km of those forces, such a weapon range is a waste of rocket fuel and probably greatly reduces the warhead payload size... a shorter ranged version would have a much bigger much more effective warhead and would probably be more accurate too.
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Sun Oct 13, 2019 6:57 am

    China has satellites, drones & recon planes.
    https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/10/article/chinese-drones-are-proving-their-importance/

    Stationary targets like rail/shipyards, ports, naval/air bases, plants, etc. can be targeted from afar even w/o the latest intel. about them.
    I think their range was increased for more operational flexibility & with NK/Taiwan/India in mind.
    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible on Sun Oct 13, 2019 8:15 am

    Tsavo Lion wrote:China has satellites, drones & recon planes.
    https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/10/article/chinese-drones-are-proving-their-importance/

    Stationary targets like rail/shipyards, ports, naval/air bases, plants, etc. can be targeted from afar even w/o the latest intel. about them.
    I think their range was increased for more operational flexibility & with NK/Taiwan/India in mind.

    Key Chinese targets would be hit so damn quickly by Russian systems, they may hit them about same time China hits them because Russia has more mature IADS structure to see within China as well. Since China is so heavily concentrated, the damage back would be severe.

    Hence why China plays smart and doesn't actually attack anyone. They could overrun North Korea so darn fast but any retaliation hit would be so devastating, it wouldn't make any invasion even worth it.
    Big_Gazza
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    Post  Big_Gazza on Sun Oct 13, 2019 9:53 am

    miketheterrible wrote:
    Hence why China plays smart and doesn't actually attack anyone. They could overrun North Korea so darn fast but any retaliation hit would be so devastating, it wouldn't make any invasion even worth it.

    Why would China even consider attacking NK???  

    Apart from being a horridly drawn-out and bloody quagmire (even ignoring nukes, NK is very mountainous and the NK army is not only large, but by all accounts, very motivated in its defense of national independence). Invasion of NK would be a propaganda gift to Imperial Trumpistan, and would tend to strengthen the US control over SK.  If China were to fail, the South may end up taking over the wreckage left behind if the NK gov were sufficiently weakened, and the US would then extend defacto control over the peninsula, and present a real destablisation threat to a presumably weakened CCP rule.

    NKs value to the PRC is its role as a counter to US influence on Chinas backdoor. No matter NKs antics, China knows that due to US conduct during the Korean civil war (as thats what the war really was) and its endless harassment ever since, Pyongyangs' angst will always be directed against Washington not Beijing. The PRC committed millions of troops to push the US back when Kim il Sung was a Soviet client. Does anyone really think they will now turn aggressor? (well... except for whackjob neocon nut jobz).
    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible on Sun Oct 13, 2019 10:00 am

    Big_Gazza wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:
    Hence why China plays smart and doesn't actually attack anyone. They could overrun North Korea so darn fast but any retaliation hit would be so devastating, it wouldn't make any invasion even worth it.

    Why would China even consider attacking NK???  

    Apart from being a horridly drawn-out and bloody quagmire (even ignoring nukes, NK is very mountainous and the NK army is not only large, but by all accounts, very motivated in its defense of national independence). Invasion of NK would be a propaganda gift to Imperial Trumpistan, and would tend to strengthen the US control over SK.  If China were to fail, the South may end up taking over the wreckage left behind if the NK gov were sufficiently weakened, and the US would then extend defacto control over the peninsula, and present a real destablisation threat to a presumably weakened CCP rule.

    NKs value to the PRC is its role as a counter to US influence on Chinas backdoor. No matter NKs antics, China knows that due to US conduct during the Korean civil war (as thats what the war really was) and its endless harassment ever since, Pyongyangs' angst will always be directed against Washington not Beijing. The PRC committed millions of troops to push the US back when Kim il Sung was a Soviet client. Does anyone really think they will now turn aggressor? (well... except for whackjob neocon nut jobz).

    I am using an example. Not saying they would or ever think of it. But saying that even if China invaded a small nation like NK, the devastation they can cause back at NK would be way too great. Maybe I didn't make that clear in what I initially said. So I could just throw in any other small nation with Nukes into the mix.

    OK, so lets say South Africa in the 70's when they had Nukes. How bout that?
    Hole
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    Post  Hole on Sun Oct 13, 2019 10:54 am

    Poland is in greater danger to be invaded by Sweden then Russia is from China.
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Sun Oct 13, 2019 5:41 pm

    But saying that even if China invaded a small nation like NK, the devastation they can cause back at NK would be way too great.
    a few years ago, to get Taiwan back, they were ready to lose all big cities East of Xian in a nuclear exchange with the US:
    https://books.google.com/books?id=GE-hBgAAQBAJ&pg=PA62&lpg=PA62&dq=lose+all+big+cities+East+of+Xian+Taiwan&source=bl&ots=Ag8K30PpuE&sig=ACfU3U0Et4S5A4VfegV7EG4xf19nOSzubw&hl=ru&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjOtdHAx5nlAhWJrZ4KHWHCA0sQ6AEwDHoECAkQAQ

    Chairman Mao, during/after his policies killed 50-70M, had no problem sacrificing 100M or more of his people in a nuclear war.
    NK can now kill a lot less than that number, but it will cease to exist regardless.

    For Russia & China, The Nicaraguan Canal will become what the Suez Canal was to Great Britain.


    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Sun Oct 13, 2019 10:22 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : add link)
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:12 am

    The reality is that the Chinese will only invade North Korea for the same reason they did it last time... when South Korea and US and international forces were defeating North Korea and US bases were going to be put on the border with China... China wont accept that, they wouldn't then and wont now.

    That means the Chinese forces would be fighting side by side with the North Koreans against South Korea and the US and any other country the US suckered into joining in... but I can't see even the UK joining that clusterfuck.

    China isn't stupid, they know a major war does enormous damage even to the country that wins, so they will avoid it at all costs, but some times there wont be a choice.

    ie Taiwan or Hong Kong declares independence from China and US/UK starts building bases there... "to defend their democracy"... you know... the usual shit.

    But I don't think even the current occupant of the WH is that stupid.
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Mon Oct 14, 2019 4:23 am

    The reality is that the Chinese will only invade North Korea for the same reason they did it last time...
    China may also invade NK if there's a serious internal trouble.
    NK is a buffer state for Russia & China- even if SK kicks out every American soldier, it can mobilize her reserves (more than NK has) & is well armed, while Japan rearms & hosts many US bases.
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Mon Oct 14, 2019 6:14 am

    China has satellites, drones & recon planes.

    And how many rockets will they allocate to each target... is it more than the number of incoming threats a TOR battery can handle?

    They are going to need a shit load of those rockets then and they are going to be expensive...

    China may also invade NK if there's a serious internal trouble.

    They certainly might try, but when they invaded Vietnam to teach them a lesson it really didn't go very well for the Chinese... they have some new shiny stuff, but they really have yet to prove themselves.

    Not going to suggest they are as bad as Saudi Arabia, but Saudi Arabia has spent an enormous fortune on modern capable western weapons and western and eastern mercenaries to operate them... they probably have the best Pakistani fighter pilots there are... and why wouldn't you... nice new planes... probably a huge pay rate... but as we have seen it doesn't always work out like it does on paper... in theory the Houthis should have been wiped out easily by the combined forces of several countries with new shiny equipment, but those sandal wearing rebels are not doing bad at all.

    Sure they are probably getting support and advice at the very least, but they are the ones on the ground trading bullets and bombs and doing the hero stuff people like to think they can do but when push comes to shove... could they?

    I have never been fired at... I'd like to think I would be brave for the guys around me, but I don't know that... kinda hope I never find out of course... that is some serious shit that normal people try to avoid normally.

    SK doesn't want war... its economy and standard of living comes from commerce and peace... any serious conflict with the north and that all disappears and with the gloves off it can come down to who will put up with poor conditions longer and I would bet the NK could tolerate it longer... they have more experience of not getting the latest apple iphone the day it comes out.
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Mon Oct 14, 2019 6:33 pm

    .
    .when they invaded Vietnam to teach them a lesson it really didn't go very well for the Chinese... they have some new shiny stuff, but they really have yet to prove themselves.
    China successfully invaded Korea several times in the past- it's not covered in jungle & they could do it across the Yellow Sea as well, like Gen. McAarthur done at Inchon.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Inchon

    Not going to suggest they are as bad as Saudi Arabia, but Saudi Arabia has spent an enormous fortune on modern capable western weapons and western and eastern mercenaries to operate them...
    The KSA rulers r afraid of their own army, & they kept it weak & unable to use modern capable western weapons well. They thought they would have the US to back them up by spending $Bs on arms, but Trump has another idea. That's why their King went to Moscow. https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/10/article/saudi-crown-prince-changes-tune-on-war-with-iran/

    Why is Russia interested in rapprochement between China and India: https://regnum.ru/news/polit/2747431.html


    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Wed Oct 16, 2019 5:39 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : add link)
    Odin of Ossetia
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    Russia's National Defense Strategy issues - Page 10 Empty Massive Nuclear War Games to be Conducted by Russia in its Far North in October, 2019.

    Post  Odin of Ossetia on Wed Oct 16, 2019 6:52 am





    Massive Nuclear War Games to be Conducted by Russia in its Far North in October, 2019.


    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russia-announces-massive-nuclear-war-games-arctic-week



    U.S. moving out of Syria and into the Far North?



    franco
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    Post  franco on Wed Oct 16, 2019 9:49 pm

    I think the operative word for this war game is annual.
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Thu Oct 17, 2019 1:46 am

    Of course every exercise Russia holds is sinister and threatening... even when planned years before, because of the timely events it coincides with at the time....

    NATO exercises on the other hand are peaceful and improve peace and democracy everywhere they are held.
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:28 pm

    Russia is far away, and Cuba is near

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