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    Russian Economy General News: #7

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    Austin
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #7

    Post  Austin on Tue Oct 11, 2016 4:15 pm

    Why is trade surplus decreasing kvs , Have they increased import or exports are falling ?

    The surplus of Russia's foreign trade fell by 48% in January-September

    MOSCOW, Oct. 11 -. RIA Novosti / Prime trade surplus of the Russian Federation in January-September 2016 amounted to 63.1 billion compared to $ 118.2 billion a year earlier, according to the materials of the CBR.


    Thus, the trade surplus declined in comparison with the same period last year by 48.1%, or 56.9 billion dollars.

    George1
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #7

    Post  George1 on Wed Oct 12, 2016 12:34 am

    Putin to discuss draft budget for 2017-2019 with government

    More:
    http://tass.com/economy/905866?_ga=1.64705135.1337049799.1447427261


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    franco
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #7

    Post  franco on Wed Oct 12, 2016 12:37 am

    Austin wrote:Why is trade surplus decreasing kvs , Have they increased import or exports are falling ?

    The surplus of Russia's foreign trade fell by 48% in January-September

    MOSCOW, Oct. 11 -. RIA Novosti / Prime trade surplus of the Russian Federation in January-September 2016 amounted to 63.1 billion compared to $ 118.2 billion a year earlier, according to the materials of the CBR.


    Thus, the trade surplus declined in comparison with the same period last year by 48.1%, or 56.9 billion dollars.

    Without doing any research, perhaps the Russians have started importing more items again with their deflated ruble.

    Vann7
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #7

    Post  Vann7 on Wed Oct 12, 2016 12:30 pm

    Must see..

    http://www.ahaber.com.tr/webtv/gundem/cia-guleni-okyanusa-atar-ama-kesinlikle-iade-etmez

    American economyst Willian Engdahl and political expert, speaking about economy days ago ,interview.. apparently in Turkey he was. About the EuroAsian century.. as the new era of world economy ,that will replace the old Global financial system , the american century. He also speak about politics in the world today ,about Russia future and US future.

    KoTeMoRe
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #7

    Post  KoTeMoRe on Wed Oct 12, 2016 1:56 pm

    franco wrote:
    Austin wrote:Why is trade surplus decreasing kvs , Have they increased import or exports are falling ?

    The surplus of Russia's foreign trade fell by 48% in January-September

    MOSCOW, Oct. 11 -. RIA Novosti / Prime trade surplus of the Russian Federation in January-September 2016 amounted to 63.1 billion compared to $ 118.2 billion a year earlier, according to the materials of the CBR.


    Thus, the trade surplus declined in comparison with the same period last year by 48.1%, or 56.9 billion dollars.

    Without doing any research, perhaps the Russians have started importing more items again with their deflated ruble.

    Two things.

    Forex Issue and Oil dip, this year oil has been at roughly 35 USD/bbl in average, last year it was 53 USD/bbl in average. Revenue has taken a hit.
    Meanwhile this year USD has been worth 70RUR in average while last year is was around 58 RUR.

    Lower oil price, lower exchange rate and you have a deep cut in Russian wallet.

    However the trend since January 2016: Oil going up (pick spike since August) and RUR as well.

    Project Canada
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #7

    Post  Project Canada on Wed Oct 12, 2016 11:16 pm




    Bank of Russia asks population to limit consumption to support economy



    Chairwoman of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina said that consumption in Russia should grow at a rate that would not lead to higher inflation.

    The head of the Russian Central Bank said during Russia Calling Forum on October 12 that the growth of the consumption rate should not exceed the growth rate of the nominal income. According to Nabiullina, one needs to stimulate the savings of the population.

    "One should have a right balance between consumption and savings. In this case, consumption will gradually recover, and we already see signs of this," said Nabiullina.

    According to the head of the Central Bank, inflation in Russia remains very high, whereas one requires four percent or lower to be able to attract investment.

    "The inflation rate of 6-7 percent was more or less normal in the mid-2000s, when Russia's economic growth was based on the ever-increasing oil prices as the driving force of the Russian economy. Today, economic needs are completely different, and this is obvious to everyone," she said.

    Meanwhile, Russian citizens increased their spending in September of 2016 for the first time since 2014, Slon reports. In August, people's spending adjusted for inflation was lower than in 2012.

    Russians' real income decreased by 5.8% in January-August 2016, while in August, the rate of its decline (8.3%) was the highest since 2008.


    Project Canada
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #7

    Post  Project Canada on Wed Oct 12, 2016 11:58 pm




    Russia’s Reserve Fund to be fully spent in 2017 — draft budget


    http://tass.com/economy/906020?_ga=1.105950659.15676205.1469362849

    kvs
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #7

    Post  kvs on Thu Oct 13, 2016 10:20 pm

    Austin wrote:Why is trade surplus decreasing kvs , Have they increased import or exports are falling ?

    The surplus of Russia's foreign trade fell by 48% in January-September

    MOSCOW, Oct. 11 -. RIA Novosti / Prime trade surplus of the Russian Federation in January-September 2016 amounted to 63.1 billion compared to $ 118.2 billion a year earlier, according to the materials of the CBR.


    Thus, the trade surplus declined in comparison with the same period last year by 48.1%, or 56.9 billion dollars.

    As already noted, the oil price drop has been the main factor even going from 2015 to 2016. Russian business must also be importing
    machinery and capital development tools at a good pace again. Even though the prices are higher. This is actually very good news
    and indicates that Russia's economy is growing in real terms and not fluffy financial metrics like most NATO countries.

    kvs
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #7

    Post  kvs on Thu Oct 13, 2016 10:33 pm

    Project Canada wrote:


    Russia’s Reserve Fund to be fully spent in 2017 — draft budget


    http://tass.com/economy/906020?_ga=1.105950659.15676205.1469362849

    There are three reserve funds and the distinction between them is never made:

    - The Reserve Fund formerly part of the Stabilization Fund
    - The Welfare Fund formerly part of the Stabilization Fund
    - CBR Reserves

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_National_Wealth_Fund
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stabilization_Fund_of_the_Russian_Federation
    (Note the inconsistent numbers)

    CBR Reserves are growing. The Reserve Fund is shrinking.

    This is a total f*cking non-story. It is yet another NATO mass media (reflected in the Russian media since sycophancy there is stronkkk)
    attempt to latch on to any detail that makes the situation in Russia look grim. This is pure vapid rubbish. The Russian government is
    doing the right thing by spending the Reserve Fund instead of accumulating debt. That is what this freaking fund was created for. In
    2017 Russia will experience GDP growth and revenues will increase and the deficit will fall. In a few years the reserve funds will start to
    accumulate again.

    kvs
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #7

    Post  kvs on Thu Oct 13, 2016 10:37 pm

    Project Canada wrote:


    Bank of Russia asks population to limit consumption to support economy



    Chairwoman of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina said that consumption in Russia should grow at a rate that would not lead to higher inflation.

    The head of the Russian Central Bank said during Russia Calling Forum on October 12 that the growth of the consumption rate should not exceed the growth rate of the nominal income. According to Nabiullina, one needs to stimulate the savings of the population.

    "One should have a right balance between consumption and savings. In this case, consumption will gradually recover, and we already see signs of this," said Nabiullina.

    According to the head of the Central Bank, inflation in Russia remains very high, whereas one requires four percent or lower to be able to attract investment.

    "The inflation rate of 6-7 percent was more or less normal in the mid-2000s, when Russia's economic growth was based on the ever-increasing oil prices as the driving force of the Russian economy. Today, economic needs are completely different, and this is obvious to everyone," she said.

    Meanwhile, Russian citizens increased their spending in September of 2016 for the first time since 2014, Slon reports. In August, people's spending adjusted for inflation was lower than in 2012.

    Russians' real income decreased by 5.8% in January-August 2016, while in August, the rate of its decline (8.3%) was the highest since 2008.


    Nabiullina has outed herself fully is a monetarist nut job. Consumer spending is the back bone of GDP in NATO and all developed economies.
    Only banana republics have the GDP composed primarily of exports (of commodities). Her views are totally irrelevant and she should be
    fired since she is willfully imposing policies detached from reality. This bitch is trying to foist austerity on Russia even though Russia is
    actually booming (take a look at all the new construction around the country and the fact that the real unemployment (ILO) is much less than
    in Canada and lower than in the USA and EU).

    Project Canada
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #7

    Post  Project Canada on Fri Oct 14, 2016 12:30 am

    thanks for sharing your thoughtful insights kvs,
    about Nabiulinna, I do not understand why the Russian leadership continues to tolerate her actions, maybe keeping her in the government is a kind of olive branch for the 5th columnists? I just hope the government know what its doing

    Austin
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #7

    Post  Austin on Fri Oct 14, 2016 1:26 pm

    Russia’s foreign debt stands over $516 bln — Central Bank

    More:
    http://tass.com/economy/906351?_ga=1.167211006.1525226705.1462511035

    kvs
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #7

    Post  kvs on Sat Oct 15, 2016 12:06 am

    Austin wrote:Russia’s foreign debt stands over $516 bln — Central Bank

    More:
    http://tass.com/economy/906351?_ga=1.167211006.1525226705.1462511035

    So what?

    Also, this figure includes private debt and not just government debt. So if the private
    debtors can't pay the costs they will default. The Russian government is not obliged to
    cover for them. Thus this figure is totally worthless when it comes to evaluating the sovereign
    financial exposure of Russia.

    You keep posting this trash over and over.  What is the point besides trolling?

    OminousSpudd
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #7

    Post  OminousSpudd on Sat Oct 15, 2016 12:11 am

    kvs wrote:
    Austin wrote:Russia’s foreign debt stands over $516 bln — Central Bank

    More:
    http://tass.com/economy/906351?_ga=1.167211006.1525226705.1462511035

    So what?

    Also, this figure includes private debt and not just government debt.  So if the private
    debtors can't pay the costs they will default.  The Russian government is not obliged to
    cover for them.   Thus this figure is totally worthless when it comes to evaluating the sovereign
    financial exposure of Russia.  

    You keep posting this trash over and over.  What is the point besides trolling?
    It's not trash, it's just stats. Don't shoot the messenger.

    kvs
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #7

    Post  kvs on Sat Oct 15, 2016 12:18 am

    OminousSpudd wrote:
    kvs wrote:
    Austin wrote:Russia’s foreign debt stands over $516 bln — Central Bank

    More:
    http://tass.com/economy/906351?_ga=1.167211006.1525226705.1462511035

    So what?

    Also, this figure includes private debt and not just government debt.  So if the private
    debtors can't pay the costs they will default.  The Russian government is not obliged to
    cover for them.   Thus this figure is totally worthless when it comes to evaluating the sovereign
    financial exposure of Russia.  

    You keep posting this trash over and over.  What is the point besides trolling?
    It's not trash, it's just stats. Don't shoot the messenger.

    It was a zero content post. This is a discussion board and not some contextless number accumulator.

    franco
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #7

    Post  franco on Sat Oct 15, 2016 12:35 am

    Be cool bro. How many people on this site understand economics? My take is that he is questioning what he reads and looking for answers.

    Austin
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #7

    Post  Austin on Sat Oct 15, 2016 5:12 am

    kvs wrote:
    Austin wrote:Russia’s foreign debt stands over $516 bln — Central Bank

    More:
    http://tass.com/economy/906351?_ga=1.167211006.1525226705.1462511035

    So what?

    Also, this figure includes private debt and not just government debt.  So if the private
    debtors can't pay the costs they will default.  The Russian government is not obliged to
    cover for them.   Thus this figure is totally worthless when it comes to evaluating the sovereign
    financial exposure of Russia.  

    You keep posting this trash over and over.  What is the point besides trolling?

    Dont be stupid , I am not trolling and those figures are not fromm my  arse but are official figures from Central Bank and MOF

    Wheather the Russian government pays or private party does thats another debate but the way Russian government calculates Debt is what those figures reflect.

    Austin
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #7

    Post  Austin on Sat Oct 15, 2016 8:13 am

    PM: Russia cannot afford "living on credit time and again"

    More:
    http://tass.com/economy/906253?_ga=1.236061889.1525226705.1462511035

    GORKI, October 13. /TASS/. Russia cannot afford living on credit all the time, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said at the Cabinet meeting on Thursday.

    "We should act very prudently. We cannot afford living on credit time and again, as certain countries do," Medvedev said. The deficit should be lowered by 1 percentage point of GDP annually and revenues need to be gradually aligned with expenses, he added.

    "These are the main figures of the 2017 budget parameters - revenues of 13.4 trillion rubles ($211.72 bln), expenses of around 16 trillion rubles ($252.8 bln), deficit - slightly over 3% of GDP," he said.

    The prime minister has also pointed out that Russia’s budget for 2017-2019 is based on a conservative macroeconomic outlook.

    "The budget has been prepared, it is challenging and highlights the current economic situation. It is also rather tough regarding separate items. The new budget meets the opportunities we have. The budget is based on the conservative scenario of the country’s social and economic development," he said.

    "We have taken into account continuing sanctions and response measures in budgetary forecasting for the next 3 years," Medvedev said.

    Key interest rate cut and inflation


    According to Medvedev, the government expects the Central Bank to further cut its key interest rate next year.

    "It is necessary to make credit resources more available. Low and stable interest rates enable entrepreneurs to plan business with more confidence, to plan consumer spending, including purchases of real property, education, treatment. This year the Bank of Russia has already reduced the key rate twice. We assume that the economic situation will allow (the regulator) to continue the policy of encouraging credit activity next year," he said.

    The government will continue its policy of maximum control over inflation.



    "We will continue our policy of maximum control over inflation. Thus year it fell roughly twice, from almost 15% in December 2015 to 6.9% in August 2016," the official said.

    Conditions for business development


    The prime minister has also noted that Russian tax policy should create a favorable environment for business development.

    "Tax policy should create favorable conditions for business activity. We have already formed a tax incentive system for small businesses and individual entrepreneurs, which includes such mechanisms as territories of advanced development, special investment contract. In the coming years we will continue developing it," Medvedev said.


    More:
    http://tass.com/economy/906253?_ga=1.236061889.1525226705.1462511035

    Austin
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #7

    Post  Austin on Sun Oct 16, 2016 5:39 am

    So every time Russia take a foreign policy stand that does not go with Atlantic interest , there will be sanction imposed on Russia , Thats the state of diplomacy and time we live in , it wasnt so bad in cold war.

    Did EU imposed sanction on US for invading Iraq or Libya  , The cheer leader of sanctions are Merkel and Obama , Merkel role to to get all EU long and Obama is happy to oblige.

    Merkel will propose tougher EU sanctions against Russia

    https://ria.ru/economy/20161015/1479315315.html


    BERLIN, Oct. 15 -. RIA Novosti, Angelina Timofeeva German Chancellor Angela Merkel wants to speak to the EU to toughen sanctions against Russia over the situation in Syria, said the influential German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung with reference to the head of the government environment.


    We are talking about sanctions in the areas of aeronautics and defense industry, the newspaper said.



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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #7

    Post  Austin on Sun Oct 16, 2016 5:40 am

    Should Russia just ban Boeing and Airbus to be bought by any Russian airlines ?

    Austin
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #7

    Post  Austin on Sun Oct 16, 2016 6:20 am

    Yellen has invented a new term now , High Pressure Economy  :wink:

    Is Yellen's Call for 'High Pressure Economy' an Endorsement of Negative Rates

    In a speech, Fed Chair Janet Yellen inadvertently advocated a set of policies that imply lower interest rates and other accommodative measures, possibly hinting at negative rates looming as a recession-aversion strategy.


    Kristian Rouz – Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen delivered a speech on Friday, having said that creating the policy conditions for a “high pressure economy” would be the only way to avoid a recession.

    Certain market participants suggested that the regulator will abstain from a further tightening of monetary conditions. Specifically, JP Morgan said they are still expecting a December hike; the tone of their message seemed to imply that they were urging the Fed to move rates up.


    Meanwhile, in her speech, Yellen said additional measures to stimulate the economy might be necessary, such as higher inflation targeting, having hinted at “helicopter money” as a possible solution as well. The Fed Chair’s message also fueled expectations of a possible negative interest rate policy (NIRP), which could be implemented as the economy keeps faltering just above zero growth. Although Yellen put forth very few straightforward suggestions for future policy during her speech, her overall message was very dovish. The Fed Chair repeatedly said that “all (Fed) meetings are live,” and said the word “recession” over 20 times. Market participants and observers, however, focused on her suggestion that “high pressure economy” conditions would be beneficial for growth – with the term itself referring to a greater amount of monetary easing, contradicting the Fed’s current set of policies.

    “If we assume that hysteresis is in fact present to some degree after deep recessions, the natural next question is to ask whether it might be possible to reverse these adverse supply-side effects by temporarily running a 'high-pressure economy,' with robust aggregate demand and a tight labor market,” Yellen said.

    By saying “adverse supply-side effects”, the Fed Chair referred to the current decline in corporate earnings, lackluster levels of investment, a slump in business activity and overall private sector weakness.


    Amid Recession Fears, Yellen Confirms Has 'Legal Basis' for Negative Rates “With … interest rates at or close to their effective lower bound in many countries … many central banks have sought additional ways to stimulate their economies, including adopting policies that are directly aimed at influencing expectations of future interest rates and inflation,” Yellen said, reiterating her earlier thoughts voiced during her Jackson Hole speech several weeks ago that first sparked concern that additional monetary policy tools, such as “helicopter money” or negative rates, might be implemented soon.

    Addressing the concern of why the currently tight labor market conditions have failed to produce stronger inflation and economic growth sustainable enough to normalize monetary conditions, Yellen admitted that “the influence of labor market conditions on inflation in recent years seems to be weaker than had been commonly thought prior to the financial crisis.” “The underlying cause is unknown,” Yellen said.

    The speech sent several disturbing signals to the market. First, the Fed does not have a clue of what is going on, let alone how to fix it. Second, central bank liquidity injections might be a possibility in the near future – again, but this time not in the form of “quantitative easing” in bond buyouts, but as “helicopter money”, or targeted inflows of Fed money into certain struggling sector of the economy. Third, the Fed can’t raise rates further, and might even roll them back to zero or below. The term “high-pressure economy” is explained in a 2015 paper by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities as follows.

    Damage to the US economy that, in the absence of strong monetary stimulus, is likely to persist indefinitely … can be reversed to a substantial degree by expansionary monetary policy. Expansionary policy can create … a “high-pressure economy,” one with stronger-than-average economic growth and low unemployment.


    The Fed should do everything it can to promote a high-pressure economy, not increase interest rates and choke off growth as soon as inflation threatens to rise.”

    Therefore, Yellen’s use of such terminology suggests she is willing to do “everything … to promote” inflation, and the only way to do it is relaxing monetary conditions within the current framework of broader economic policy. “Not increasing” rates and “choking off” growth, which is sluggish at around 1pc year-on-year, fall in line with this approach, implying a possible introduction of negative rates (NIRP).

    Signs of anxiety in the US market were revealed very quickly after Yellen’s speech. Micheal Feroli, JP Morgan's chief US economist, said that “we continue to expect the next hike in December.”First, she (said) a 'high-pressure economy' could help the supply side, such as stimulating greater capex, R&D, and labor force participation. Second, she stressed the role of monetary policy in anchoring inflation expectations. Third, she stated that easy monetary policy in the US is beneficial to growth overseas, arguably a good thing,” Feroli explained, adding that “Some of these themes are contested. Most notably, the argument that monetary policy can foster supply side gains.”

    The view reflects the market participants being fed up with the loose monetary conditions that have failed to produce any substantial growth in the current environment. A supply-side reform would require a lot more than tweaks in monetary policies that could only accompany a structural reform, likely going up, not down as hinted by Yellen. However, a cut in interest rates to below zero could win the establishment in Washington some more time before the current stalemate resolves in a new recession and economic crisis.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #7

    Post  Austin on Sun Oct 16, 2016 7:13 am

    The Russian government has approved a draft budget for the years 2017-2019

    http://www.interfax.ru/business/532335


    Moscow. 13 October. INTERFAX.RU - The Russian government on Thursday approved the draft law "On the Federal Budget for 2017 and the planning period of 2018 and 2019 years", reported the press service of the Cabinet. Also approved was a draft of the forecast of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for 2017-2019 years.



    "All the documents to be submitted to the Government meeting approved minor changes will be made in general government budget process finishes," - said the representative of the press service of the Russian government. The meeting also considered projects of monetary policy, fiscal policy, tax and customs tariff policy, as well as draft budgets of state extra-budgetary funds.


    The budget for the next three-year drawn up with a deficit: in 2017 in the amount of 2.744 trillion rubles (3.15% of GDP), in 2018 - 1.989 trillion rubles (2.15% of GDP), in 2019 - 1.139 trillion rubles (1.15 % of GDP).


    Revenues in 2017 are planned in the amount of 13 trillion 436 billion 613 million rubles, expenses - 16 trillion 181 billion 264 million rubles. Next year, the budget is calculated on the basis of projected GDP to 86 trillion 806.0 billion rubles and the inflation rate no higher than 4.0%.


    The volume of GDP for 2018 is projected at 92 trillion 296.0 billion rubles, in 2019 - 98 trillion 860.0 billion rubles. Inflation in these years should not exceed 4.0%.


    Budget revenues for 2018 should make 13 trillion 988 billion 757 million rubles, in 2019 - 14 trillion 824 billion 918 million rubles. Budget expenditures are planned in 2018 in the amount of 15 trillion 978 billion 059 million rubles, in 2019 - 15 trillion 964 billion 267 million rubles.


    On the budget deficit in 2017 will be spent 1.151 trillion rubles from the Reserve Fund, after which it will expire, and 659.6 billion rubles from the National Wealth Fund (NWF). In the next two years from the NWF deficit will be financed in the amount of 1.140 trillion rubles and 136.8 billion rubles, respectively. Also, by raising funds in the domestic market through the issuance of securities of the deficit will be financed at 1.050 trillion rubles annually.


    The upper limit of the state internal debt on January 1, 2018 are invited to establish in the amount of 10.35 trillion rubles, external - $ 53.6 billion, or 48.7 billion euros; on January 1, 2019 - 11.580 trillion rubles and $ 52.8 billion, or 48.0 billion euros; on January 1, 2020 - 12.788 trillion rubles and $ 53.6 billion, or 48.7 billion euros.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #7

    Post  Austin on Sun Oct 16, 2016 7:23 am

    If they stick to the above figure then the Public Debt of Russia wont exceed 20 % of  GDP by 2020 which is quite good

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #7

    Post  Project Canada on Sun Oct 16, 2016 2:20 pm




    Beep Beep, Move Over! Russian Car Industry Set to Grab a Share of Global Market

    https://sputniknews.com/russia/201610161046387440-russian-cars-trucks-export-potential-analysis/


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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #7

    Post  Austin on Mon Oct 17, 2016 3:48 am

    Kerry says US looking at more sanctions against Russia over Syria

    More:
    http://tass.com/world/906792?_ga=1.133743310.1525226705.1462511035

    LONDON, October 16. /TASS/. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said on Sunday more sanctions could be imposed on Russia over the situation in Syria.
    He said the United States and Britain are looking at applying more economic sanctions against Russia and the Syrian government because of their operation in Syria’s Aleppo.


    More:
    http://tass.com/world/906792?_ga=1.133743310.1525226705.1462511035

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