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    Russian Economy General News: #7

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    sepheronx
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #7

    Post  sepheronx on Thu Jan 28, 2016 3:15 am

    This is fantastic. If I had to go somewhere and some idiot protesters stood in my way, I would have punched a few of them. Great thing about this, it is a couple dozen at best? LOL. Pathetic really. But funny none the less.

    kvs
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #7

    Post  kvs on Thu Jan 28, 2016 3:53 am

    Vann7 wrote:Russian NGOs in action.. creating problems.

    Russia: Mortgage holders protest loan conditions on Moscow's streets

    UVaFp228zvU



    Shows you how detached from reality these people are. They expect the sort of pampering that nobody
    would ever get in the west. But to them it is what "normal" western countries do for their citizens.

    sepheronx
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #7

    Post  sepheronx on Thu Jan 28, 2016 3:55 am

    kvs wrote:
    Vann7 wrote:Russian NGOs in action.. creating problems.

    Russia: Mortgage holders protest loan conditions on Moscow's streets

    UVaFp228zvU



    Shows you how detached from reality these people are.  They expect the sort of pampering that nobody
    would ever get in the west.   But to them it is what "normal" western countries do for their citizens.  

    Someone needs to learn on how to communicate with these people. I wish I could go over there right now, with a copy of my mortgage bill and then counter protest these people. I imagine they would feel foolish and stupid afterwards when they realize their mortgage is probably nowhere near as high as mine and that my government will not pay it off for me.

    Austin
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #7

    Post  Austin on Thu Jan 28, 2016 6:39 am

    kvs what do you make out of this statement of debt in local currency does not matter as country can always debase their currency ?
    Please check the link from a member called Suraj

    http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=6655&p=1972374#p1972201

    Vann7
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #7

    Post  Vann7 on Thu Jan 28, 2016 8:43 am

    sepheronx wrote:
    kvs wrote:
    Vann7 wrote:Russian NGOs in action.. creating problems.

    Russia: Mortgage holders protest loan conditions on Moscow's streets

    UVaFp228zvU



    Shows you how detached from reality these people are.  They expect the sort of pampering that nobody
    would ever get in the west.   But to them it is what "normal" western countries do for their citizens.  

    Someone needs to learn on how to communicate with these people.  I wish I could go over there right now, with a copy of my mortgage bill and then counter protest these people.  I imagine they would feel foolish and stupid afterwards when they realize their mortgage is probably nowhere near as high as mine and that my government will not pay it off for me.

    What is disturbing is not the numbers in the protest.. but what they intended to do.. they wanted to blockade the city main road. This is not protest but sabotage and usually people do
    things like this when have really bad intentions ,to create problems. and not interested
    at all in dialogue or to meet with any authority. It seems as if it was a planned provocation
    financed and not a genuine protest.  It seems Russia will need to create more extreme measures to keep in check the people bank accounts in Russia who are problematic ,this is to monitor their finances.  Something like an Id card/passport that contains encrypted information
    that only Federal Police can access to see ..

    1)Where they live .. the protesters.
    2)To monitor the travel acticities of them and which places they go and meetings
    they do.. who sponsor or organize them.
    3) to monitor its finances ,for who they work if they are NGO or receive any
    benefit/money from western organizations.. and if found to do it.. then receive
    a major fine for minor crime or jail. It should be a criminal offense in Russia to receive
    foreign money or material economical favors  for protesting about anything.
    4)Then their ID cards should be marked with a Big Negative title Foreign sponsored agent.
    and that every major restaurant ,gas station should should have computers to report where they go and how they spent their money and their last position .So every time they need to show their idcards be ashamed.. but at the same time the Government easily keep track of the movements of them.

    yes this is invasion of privacy ,but is well deserved when is proven they are funded by foreign
    powers either directly or indirectly through Russian oligarchs.

    Again this protest is the most disturbing one ,i have seen in a long time..since Putin came as president. they were aiming to created problems and paralize the city..and were using force
    to resist police do its work. have seen protest of thousands people that nevers do that.
    and peacefully use the designated areas for protest.

    Putin could also introduce a special TAX for people labeled /found to receive money
    from foreign powers either directly or indirectly . For example a 30% tax on everything for a year or two or more,depending on people behaviour, people who receive money from abroad and create problems in highly questionable organizations . Putin can argue that the Tax is implemented to force a penalty fine on the nations who sponsored the protest and pays them.

    Last but not least.. any Protester that blocks a street and create problems for another citizen.
    ie.. that arrive late at work or emergency to hospital.. or accident because of the protest.. should be encouraged by the kremlin to start a lawsuit against the protesters ,to take them to court and pay for the problems they caused on them. So thousands of people will have the chance to pushing the protesters economically and demand compensation. Everything that makes more miserable the life of anyone who try to block people from driving and cause problem in their activities that day. 
    .

    GarryB
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #7

    Post  GarryB on Thu Jan 28, 2016 10:47 am

    I am afraid I have no sympathy for people getting loans in foreign currencies getting burned when exchange rates change.

    Get loans in what you earn and there will never be a problem.

    If you want to be a currency speculator then by all means do so... I am sure there are a lot of people who rushed to change to dollars when the rouble collapsed... and if you got in before then you probably made a lot of money... but only when you exchange back to roubles... if you could not change till the rouble had already dropped then changing to dollars is no advantage.

    Personally I think the rouble drop in value has been good for the Russian economy... it should make Russian products in roubles much more competitive... and also encourage purchases of domestic instead of imported without the need for tariffs.

    Nothing kills a domestic industry sector like cheap imports... as long as you can make most things domestically you should be OK.


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    kvs
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #7

    Post  kvs on Fri Jan 29, 2016 2:24 am

    http://russia-insider.com/en/business/upbeat-mood-putin-reviews-economy-his-team/ri12505

    Nice article by Alexander Mercouris. The CBR needs to be smacked down with its retarded interest rate policy.

    kvs
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #7

    Post  kvs on Fri Jan 29, 2016 2:37 am

    Austin wrote:kvs what do you make out of this statement of debt in local currency does not matter as country can always debase their currency ?
    Please check the link from a member called Suraj

    http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=6655&p=1972374#p1972201

    It depends on what the debt service costs are.  Even if the debt is in domestic currency a big enough debt will mean that the government
    will spend most of its revenues paying interest instead of spending them on what they are supposed to be spent on.   The trick in the
    west has been the near zero interest rates set by the central banks (private or not).   Dialing down the interest rate dials down the
    interest costs.   But there is no guarantee that the interest rates will stay low forever and a huge debt could lead to a debt servicing
    shock.

    The only way that domestic debt (regardless if it is private or public) can be reduced without actually paying it down or defaulting is
    through inflation.   Foreign debt is not typically given in local currency since most foreign lenders have some content between their ears.  
    So the claim that the debt burden can be reduced merely by debasing the currency is patent nonsense.    Forex rates have nothing to
    do with domestic debt.  But a forex rate drop aka "debasement" can induce inflation.    A high inflation policy is rather stupid since it
    undermines economic growth and government revenues.  

    There ain't no free lunch.  Suraj's post is a string of words with no meaning.   You will note the QE in the USA has not resulted in US
    debt levels shrinking.   I have not seen governments print money to pay down debt in recent history.   But if they did, then it would be
    a variation on the inflation theme.   Also, the government could print money and give it to private debt holders to pay down their debts
    so I don't see why private debt is special and government debt is of no concern.    Governments don't borrow money from their minting
    agencies but instead borrow from banks or issue bonds (aka treasurys in the USA).  Otherwise why not just print money instead of borrowing.  
    And here we come back to the fact that inflation is a bad thing and governments not composed of total lunatics try to avoid it.

    zg18
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #7

    Post  zg18 on Sat Jan 30, 2016 12:02 am

    History of Russia`s trade surplus (merchandise):

    1994 - $16.9 bln

    2000- $57.1 bln

    2015 - est. $189.7 bln


    Last edited by zg18 on Sat Jan 30, 2016 3:40 am; edited 1 time in total

    JohninMK
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #7

    Post  JohninMK on Sat Jan 30, 2016 1:36 am

    zg18 wrote:History of Russia`s trade surplus:

    1994 - $16.9 bln

    2000- $57.1 bln

    2015 - est. $189.7 bln
    Definitely in trouble Laughing

    Austin
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #7

    Post  Austin on Sat Jan 30, 2016 5:49 am

    kvs wrote:
    Austin wrote:kvs what do you make out of this statement of debt in local currency does not matter as country can always debase their currency ?
    Please check the link from a member called Suraj

    http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=6655&p=1972374#p1972201

    It depends on what the debt service costs are.  Even if the debt is in domestic currency a big enough debt will mean that the government
    will spend most of its revenues paying interest instead of spending them on what they are supposed to be spent on.   The trick in the
    west has been the near zero interest rates set by the central banks (private or not).   Dialing down the interest rate dials down the
    interest costs.   But there is no guarantee that the interest rates will stay low forever and a huge debt could lead to a debt servicing
    shock.

    The only way that domestic debt (regardless if it is private or public) can be reduced without actually paying it down or defaulting is
    through inflation.   Foreign debt is not typically given in local currency since most foreign lenders have some content between their ears.  
    So the claim that the debt burden can be reduced merely by debasing the currency is patent nonsense.    Forex rates have nothing to
    do with domestic debt.  But a forex rate drop aka "debasement" can induce inflation.    A high inflation policy is rather stupid since it
    undermines economic growth and government revenues.  

    There ain't no free lunch.  Suraj's post is a string of words with no meaning.   You will note the QE in the USA has not resulted in US
    debt levels shrinking.   I have not seen governments print money to pay down debt in recent history.   But if they did, then it would be
    a variation on the inflation theme.   Also, the government could print money and give it to private debt holders to pay down their debts
    so I don't see why private debt is special and government debt is of no concern.    Governments don't borrow money from their minting
    agencies but instead borrow from banks or issue bonds (aka treasurys in the USA).  Otherwise why not just print money instead of borrowing.  
    And here we come back to the fact that inflation is a bad thing and governments not composed of total lunatics try to avoid it.

    Thanks Agree

    Austin
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #7

    Post  Austin on Sat Jan 30, 2016 6:04 am

    Kremlin Transcript quotes trade surplus at 145 billion Roubles and not $145 billion as quoted by news site

    http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/51211

    Vladimir Putin: We have a positive trade balance. Taking into account the drop in prices for our main export goods, including raw materials, what caused this positive trade balance?

    Alexei Ulyukayev: We have a positive trade balance and balance for current operations.This is what is most important. In 2015, we had a trade surplus of about 145 billion rubles. This is slightly less than we had before. First and foremost, this is due to the drop in our export prices. Physical volumes have not declined, and the fourfold oil market drop, as well as the drop in the markets for gas and ferrous and non-ferrous metals, have led to a serious decrease in the price of exported goods. But the cost of imports has also declined.

    http://www.tradingeconomics.com/russia/balance-of-trade

    Russia posted a USD 9.1 billion trade surplus in November of 2015, down from a USD 13.7 billion surplus a year earlier, as exports shrank 30.5 percent and imports 28.9 percent. It is the lowest trade surplus since August.

    Year-on-year, exports shrank 30.5 percent to USD 25.5 billion while imports decreased 28.9 percent to USD 16.4 billion, central bank data showed.

    sepheronx
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #7

    Post  sepheronx on Sat Jan 30, 2016 6:15 am

    Austin wrote:Kremlin Transcript quotes trade surplus at 145 billion Roubles and not $145 billion as quoted by news site

    http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/51211

    Vladimir Putin: We have a positive trade balance. Taking into account the drop in prices for our main export goods, including raw materials, what caused this positive trade balance?

    Alexei Ulyukayev: We have a positive trade balance and balance for current operations.This is what is most important. In 2015, we had a trade surplus of about 145 billion rubles. This is slightly less than we had before. First and foremost, this is due to the drop in our export prices. Physical volumes have not declined, and the fourfold oil market drop, as well as the drop in the markets for gas and ferrous and non-ferrous metals, have led to a serious decrease in the price of exported goods. But the cost of imports has also declined.

    http://www.tradingeconomics.com/russia/balance-of-trade

    Russia posted a USD 9.1 billion trade surplus in November of 2015, down from a USD 13.7 billion surplus a year earlier, as exports shrank 30.5 percent and imports 28.9 percent. It is the lowest trade surplus since August.

    Year-on-year, exports shrank 30.5 percent to USD 25.5 billion while imports decreased 28.9 percent to USD 16.4 billion, central bank data showed.

    That would mean that trade surplus for Russia was $19.1B overall in 2015.  I think there is a major translation issue going on here.

    also:


    http://www.theglobaleconomy.com/Russia/trade_balance_dollars/


    If you read the trading economics link, it also states that balance of trade in million USD would amount to $129B with those numbers.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #7

    Post  Vann7 on Sat Jan 30, 2016 6:45 am

    'Profit is Banksters' God': 70K Russians with dollar & euro mortgages can't afford to live


    sepheronx
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #7

    Post  sepheronx on Sat Jan 30, 2016 6:54 am

    Too bad for them.  I bank in CAD since I live in Canada.  I never bothered to grab loans in USD or Euro.  So the CAD dropped in value heavily and I still owe same amount on my house.

    But it seems Russian gov is gonna bail them out anyway.  I guess they have a softer heart than most in the west.  Hope people do not try to take advantage of this.

    Edit:

    Just some recent economic data

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #7

    Post  Austin on Sat Jan 30, 2016 6:56 am

    sepheronx wrote:
    Austin wrote:Kremlin Transcript quotes trade surplus at 145 billion Roubles and not $145 billion as quoted by news site

    http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/51211

    Vladimir Putin: We have a positive trade balance. Taking into account the drop in prices for our main export goods, including raw materials, what caused this positive trade balance?

    Alexei Ulyukayev: We have a positive trade balance and balance for current operations.This is what is most important. In 2015, we had a trade surplus of about 145 billion rubles. This is slightly less than we had before. First and foremost, this is due to the drop in our export prices. Physical volumes have not declined, and the fourfold oil market drop, as well as the drop in the markets for gas and ferrous and non-ferrous metals, have led to a serious decrease in the price of exported goods. But the cost of imports has also declined.

    http://www.tradingeconomics.com/russia/balance-of-trade

    Russia posted a USD 9.1 billion trade surplus in November of 2015, down from a USD 13.7 billion surplus a year earlier, as exports shrank 30.5 percent and imports 28.9 percent. It is the lowest trade surplus since August.

    Year-on-year, exports shrank 30.5 percent to USD 25.5 billion while imports decreased 28.9 percent to USD 16.4 billion, central bank data showed.

    That would mean that trade surplus for Russia was $19.1B overall in 2015.  I think there is a major translation issue going on here.

    also:


    http://www.theglobaleconomy.com/Russia/trade_balance_dollars/


    If you read the trading economics link, it also states that balance of trade in million USD would amount to $129B with those numbers.

    Are we talking about Exports or Current Account Surplus which is total export - total imports ?

    Thanks , BTW I checked your Blog and its wonderful , Thank You for your effort.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #7

    Post  Austin on Sat Jan 30, 2016 6:57 am

    Makes a good read of various opinions on current crisis


    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jan/29/heading-for-a-crash-global-economic-meltdown-panel-repeat-2008-china-slowdown

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #7

    Post  Austin on Sat Jan 30, 2016 6:57 am

    Russian Railways to increase investments in the acquisition and modernisation of EMUs

    http://www.think-railways.com/russian-railways-increase-investments-acquisition-modernisation-emus/

    1 day ago Leave a comment

    Russian Railways (RZD) plans to invest RUB 3 billion in the purchase of 82 new EMUs classes ED4M and ED9E manufactured by Demikhovsky Machine Building Plant (DMZ), part of the Transmashholding (TMH) group. Last year the company’s investment program included the acquisition of 70 EMUs worth more tha RUB 2.6 billion.

    In addition to the purchase of the emus for suburban services, Russian Railways will also continue investments in modernising the rolling stock fleet. In 2015, the RUB 2.8 billlion refurbishment program included 923 rail cars. For 2016 RZD plans to modernise 956 rail cars for suburban services.

    The new EMU’s are designed for commuter rail services and are equipped with air conditioning, video surveillance system, and a remote diagnostics system.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #7

    Post  Austin on Sat Jan 30, 2016 7:05 am

    Makes a good read of various opinions on current crisis


    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jan/29/heading-for-a-crash-global-economic-meltdown-panel-repeat-2008-china-slowdown

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #7

    Post  Austin on Sat Jan 30, 2016 7:42 am



    I dont understand how they calculate current account surplus

    The data even though preliminary says Current Account is $66 billion.

    My Understanding is Current Account is Exports - Imports

    2015 Exports $389 Billion , Imports : $ 281

    So Current Account/Trade Surplus should be $108 billion.


    Can some one correct me ?

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #7

    Post  kvs on Sat Jan 30, 2016 3:49 pm

    Austin wrote:

    I dont understand how they calculate current account surplus

    The data even though preliminary says Current Account is $66 billion.

    My Understanding is Current Account is Exports - Imports

    2015 Exports  $389 Billion , Imports : $ 281

    So Current Account/Trade Surplus should be  $108 billion.


    Can some one correct me ?

    The kremlin.ru quote clearly refers to the trade balance in goods and mistakenly terms it in roubles and not dollars.
    The correct number is $146 billion. Most media coverage in the west focuses on the trade balance instead of the
    current account balance. As stated in the table, Russia's current account balance for 2015 was $66 billion which
    is bigger than 2013 and 2014. The "other" current account offset is -$43 billion which takes the $108 billion down
    (the numbers don't add up exactly since there is rounding to integers in the table).

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #7

    Post  Austin on Sat Jan 30, 2016 6:31 pm

    Thanks

    Russia could raise state debt but must consider risks - central banker


    http://www.reuters.com/article/russia-crisis-cenral-bank-idUSL8N14X33220160113

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #7

    Post  franco on Sat Jan 30, 2016 6:58 pm

    http://russia-insider.com/en/business/2015-russia-capital-outflow-far-smaller-mainly-debt-repayment/ri12527

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #7

    Post  sepheronx on Sat Jan 30, 2016 7:02 pm

    Austin wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:
    Austin wrote:Kremlin Transcript quotes trade surplus at 145 billion Roubles and not $145 billion as quoted by news site

    http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/51211

    Vladimir Putin: We have a positive trade balance. Taking into account the drop in prices for our main export goods, including raw materials, what caused this positive trade balance?

    Alexei Ulyukayev: We have a positive trade balance and balance for current operations.This is what is most important. In 2015, we had a trade surplus of about 145 billion rubles. This is slightly less than we had before. First and foremost, this is due to the drop in our export prices. Physical volumes have not declined, and the fourfold oil market drop, as well as the drop in the markets for gas and ferrous and non-ferrous metals, have led to a serious decrease in the price of exported goods. But the cost of imports has also declined.

    http://www.tradingeconomics.com/russia/balance-of-trade

    Russia posted a USD 9.1 billion trade surplus in November of 2015, down from a USD 13.7 billion surplus a year earlier, as exports shrank 30.5 percent and imports 28.9 percent. It is the lowest trade surplus since August.

    Year-on-year, exports shrank 30.5 percent to USD 25.5 billion while imports decreased 28.9 percent to USD 16.4 billion, central bank data showed.

    That would mean that trade surplus for Russia was $19.1B overall in 2015.  I think there is a major translation issue going on here.

    also:


    http://www.theglobaleconomy.com/Russia/trade_balance_dollars/


    If you read the trading economics link, it also states that balance of trade in million USD would amount to $129B with those numbers.

    Are we talking about Exports or Current Account Surplus  which is total export - total imports ?

    Thanks , BTW I checked your Blog and its wonderful , Thank You for your effort.

    Thanks man. I appreciate that. I was also hoping you would be able to contribute to it. I am trying to get others involved besides just George and myself, like you and KVS.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #7

    Post  zg18 on Sun Jan 31, 2016 2:05 am

    For what it is worth, it might be interesting to make a comparative between 2015 levels of external trade and pre-2000 era. Average exports of goods in 1994-1999 were USD79.4 billion and 2015 levels were 4.3 times higher. Average imports of goods in 1994-1999 were USD58.45 billion and these rose 3.3 times in 2015 figures. As the result, average 1994-1999 trade balance was USD20.95 billion. 2015 trade balance was 7 times larger than that.

    Not too shabby numbers, event though 2015 was a tough year of trade for Russian exporters.

    http://trueeconomics.blogspot.hr/2016/01/30116-russian-trade-balance-in-goods.html?spref=tw

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