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    Russian Air Force numbers and procurement plans

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    Azi

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    Post  Azi on Fri Jan 24, 2020 2:59 pm

    Isos wrote:
    F35 is stealth for engagement radars which gives it a big advantage. S400 can detect it far away but the real question is at what range can it engage the f-35 ?
    If it can detect it, it can destroy it. The 40N6 missile have active seeker, so if you are able to bring the missile near F-35 the fighter is dead... range would be the same as for other fighters, miss chance slightly higher. The 48N6 has only a half active seeker that's true, I expect only 100-150 km, depending on circumstances.[/quote]
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    Post  GarryB on Fri Jan 24, 2020 4:38 pm

    When the MiG-1.44 was cancelled and Sukhoi won the contract for the fifth generation aircraft the PAK-FA was presented as a replacement for both the Su-27 and the MiG-29. Remember that the aircraft was supose to be orderd in numbers of 200-250 aircraft in the beginning.

    So you are suggesting you think 250 Su-57s is all they think they need for a fighter aircraft force?

    If that were the case why are they still producing Su-30s, Su-35s and starting production of MiG-29M2s and MiG-35s while at the same time ordering Su-57s?

    Why are they talking about upgrading the Su-34s and developing MiG-41s?

    The US developed the F-35 to replace everything and stopped production of everything else to concentrate on production of the F-35.

    F35 is stealth for engagement radars which gives it a big advantage.

    If your search radar detects a target you know exactly where to look so a high energy pencil beam should be able to track targets at greater range than they would otherwise have been able to have been engaged simply because you know where to look... it also suggests that command guided missiles like the Pantsir and TOR can be used to max range to engage stealthy targets too...

    Stealth was supposed to mean that you could only detect the threat when it was right on top of you but it could see you, but if they can see you at normal distances all those compromises in price and performance were for nothing...

    Russia has the advantage of using a huge IADS but many countries will operate only few s-400 with other european made SAM degrading overall perf against a 5th geberation aircraft.

    If their long range search radar can detect stealth aircraft at extended ranges they could simply fit their missiles with IIR seekers and launch an attack from enormous ranges using the search radar to get the missile to relatively close range... within 2km... where its IIR seeker can do the rest...

    Even russia doesn't have that many s-400 when they are spread in all russia.

    At the moment there are only 300 F-35s and based on Israeli experience they wont enter Syrian airspace so I doubt they would enter Russian airspace either.

    The fact that the search radars of the S-400 can see them means they can be located with a reasonable level of accuracy so SAMs operating in passive optical mode like TOR or Pantsir or SOSNA or even Igla or Verba could be warned and ready to fire if the F-35 in question gets close enough... with command guided missiles its stealth will be meaningless... the F-35s will be focussing on those S-400 batteries, but without scanning the airspace with its radar it wont detect those Su-35s and Su-57s being directed to its location either...

    So many places in Russia are defended by only one or two S-400 battalions. The Russian IADS system is powerful considering many places at once. And only Moscow and St. Petersburg have strong protection, many S-400 battalions.

    You are ignoring the fact that in an IADS even just a single S-400 radar without any launchers provides location data for these super expensive stealthy fighters that can be used to direct even ancient missiles like SA-3 to shoot them down... in this case the radars are providing the information needed by an air defence network to shoot down what should be invisible except at very close range... the fact that S-400 radars can detect these aircraft suggests the various other ground and air based radars can probably do the same which explains why Israeli F-35s wont enter Syrian airspace...

    If it can detect it, it can destroy it. The 40N6 missile have active seeker, so if you are able to bring the missile near F-35 the fighter is dead... range would be the same as for other fighters, miss chance slightly higher. The 48N6 has only a half active seeker that's true, I expect only 100-150 km, depending on circumstances.

    Indeed... compare Russian forces experience in Syria with Saudi experience.... the Russian forces seem able to deal with a wide range of threats including tiny drones which are tricky targets... because they can see them they can deal with them... in comparison the Saudis with some impressive on paper hardware didn't even notice it had been attacked and then in Iraq Western bases were hammered by ballistic missiles they had plenty of warning about...
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    walle83

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    Post  walle83 on Sat Jan 25, 2020 8:50 pm

    GarryB wrote:
    When the MiG-1.44 was cancelled and Sukhoi won the contract for the fifth generation aircraft the PAK-FA was presented as a replacement for both the Su-27 and the MiG-29. Remember that the aircraft was supose to be orderd in numbers of 200-250 aircraft in the beginning.

    So you are suggesting you think 250 Su-57s is all they think they need for a fighter aircraft force?

    If that were the case why are they still producing Su-30s, Su-35s and starting production of MiG-29M2s and MiG-35s while at the same time ordering Su-57s?

    Why are they talking about upgrading the Su-34s and developing MiG-41s?

    The US developed the F-35 to replace everything and stopped production of everything else to concentrate on production of the F-35.

    Im not suggesting anything just repeating what was reported 10 years ago.
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    Post  marcellogo on Sat Jan 25, 2020 10:08 pm

    walle83 wrote:
    GarryB wrote:
    When the MiG-1.44 was cancelled and Sukhoi won the contract for the fifth generation aircraft the PAK-FA was presented as a replacement for both the Su-27 and the MiG-29. Remember that the aircraft was supose to be orderd in numbers of 200-250 aircraft in the beginning.

    So you are suggesting you think 250 Su-57s is all they think they need for a fighter aircraft force?

    If that were the case why are they still producing Su-30s, Su-35s and starting production of MiG-29M2s and MiG-35s while at the same time ordering Su-57s?

    Why are they talking about upgrading the Su-34s and developing MiG-41s?

    The US developed the F-35 to replace everything and stopped production of everything else to concentrate on production of the F-35.

    Im not suggesting anything just repeating what was reported 10 years ago.

    PLEASE NOT AGAIN WITH THIS GIG!
    It's the tenth time I have to repeat same thing.

    PLEASE put finally in your mind the simple fat that RUSSIAN ORDER A BATCH AT TIME and ONCE they have completed ONE they just ORDER ANOTHER.
    PLEASE try just to understand the simple fact that ONE thing is the TOTAL NUMBER of a TYPE of planes (air superiority fighter, front line fighter, air defence interceptor, light bomber etc, etc) they put forth as their need in their long terms (10 years) acquisition plans and another TOTALLY DIFFERENT thing is the number of a SINGLE MODEL of plane ordered in a SINGLE batch signed with a SPECIFIC Aircraft Production Organization.
    So 250 is the TOTAL number of long range air superiority fighter they want to have, while 76 are the number of the SINGLE production batch of Su-57 they have just ordered  to the KnAAPO.
    And 76 is a whooping high number of planes ordered IN A SINGLE BATCH for russian standards: Su-35S, that fit into the same category of planes of Su-57 according to russian type classification above, were ordered in TWO batches, one of 48 and another of 50 in THE SAME long term production plan to the same, above mentioned, Konsomol na Amursk APO.

    They have already state that immediately after this (meaning in the same long term acquisition plan that will end in 2028) they would order another batch of Su-57 this time with the stage two engines.

    So, in case of a batch of identical size they would have 76 first stage and 76 second stage Su-57 PLUS 98 Su-35S.
    Made final sum by yourself.

    P.S. The enormous numbers of F-35 that USAF planned to acquire would span in a time period of more than 20 years i.e. in MORE than two russian long term production plans meaning that in the meantime the process of substitution of Su-35S would probably be started already.
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Sun Jan 26, 2020 2:31 am

    Further to what marcellogo is saying... the ten year plans are not set in stone... they are just plans... half way through the plan period things are re-evaluated and changes are made... they might plan to buy 250 aircraft over a 10 year period and order 76 in the second year of that period... but at year five in that ten year plan period they might order another 76 or even 150 if things are going well or international things are going badly and they want more aircraft on hand.

    Equally, 5 years in to that plan they might have some Su-57s in service and realise they are much better than Su-35s and a similar price to buy and operate so they might decide to stop making Su-35s and double the numbers of Su-57s they make to 500. The MiG-35 being smaller and cheaper means they might keep buying that as the cheap light fighter until a new 5th gen lighter aircraft can be developed.

    Or they might decide that the Su-57 and stealthy fighters in general are just a gimmick and are more expensive but really don't offer any real practical advantages in war time... which Israel is learning with its super expensive F-35s that are no more effective than the F-16s and F-15s they operate, so they might reduce the number of Su-57s they buy to 150 and to increase production of Su-35s and MiG-35s to compensate.

    When they ordered 250 Su-57s they had no idea what sort of performance they would be getting and what sort of costs would result... after 5 years of experience and new information they can look at the reasons for the decision 5 years before to order 250 and decide if these reasons still hold up and are still relevant... If they are not then changes should be made.

    That is what planning and management are all about.

    And by the way the F-22 was originally going to replace the F-15 and they were talking about 1,500 to be made... that was revised when the cold war ended to half... ie 750... in the event they produced less than 200 and destroyed the tooling and equipment to make them so no more could be easily made...

    It is a numbers cheat... making large numbers means you can claim the cost of individual products becomes cheaper... if you want to make one car you don't spend 5 million dollars setting up a factory to build it because even if it only cost $20,000 to make that means that car cost $5,020,000 dollars to make.

    If you want to make 10,000 cars then that factory makes sense because hand making 10,000 cars would cost more than 5 million and it would simply just take too long... building a factory makes it cheaper and much much faster to make things.

    The price given for the F-35 assumes 3,500 aircraft are going to be made, so the costs involved in making it can be reduced and offset by the larger production volumes... when they start to decrease the numbers to be built... like refusing to give Turkey their 100 F-35s... then the price for all the rest goes up.

    It happens all the time... a 10 billion dollar fighter aircraft programme for 126 aircraft... the winner is an aircraft that would cost more than 22 billion for that number of aircraft... they end up cutting the number of aircraft to 36... but work it out.... 10 billion dollars divided by 126 means each aircraft costs about 80 million dollars each. At 22 billion for 126 aircraft that means the actual cost of each aircraft was about 175 million dollars each... so at 175 million dollars each then 36 should cost about 6.25 billion... but India are being charged 8 billion for those 36 aircraft so about 222 million per aircraft...

    So the same aircraft is 175 million when you are buying 126 of them and 222 million when you are only buying 36 of them.

    Sure, those aircraft come with all sorts of bits and pieces this isn't just airframe fly away price, but we can assume the deal is not much different only the aircraft numbers change...
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    Post  AMCXXL on Wed Jan 29, 2020 8:14 am

    walle83 wrote:
    When the MiG-1.44 was cancelled and Sukhoi won the contract for the fifth generation aircraft the PAK-FA was presented as a replacement for both the Su-27 and the MiG-29. Remember that the aircraft was supose to be orderd in numbers of 200-250 aircraft in the beginning.

    What is this nonsense ?? did you read "The national interest" or Bloomberg ?

    Su-27 is currently replaced for Su-35 and MiG-29 have been replaced already for Su-30SM, this are facts and are not questionable

    No one serious in Russia said such a thing of buy 250 airplanes of any type. Please, stop to read that magazines of propaganda of western industrial-military complex

    Su-35 will continue in production until the total replacement of Su-27 , and probable the producton of Su-57 on criuse-speed only happends after the production of Su-35 for Rusiia is complete

    Su-57 will go to TOTALLY NEW regiments , dont replace nothing, increase the size of airforce, and will be received in reason of 1 regment each Air Army.

    In long term the total will be 100-125 Su-57, that compared the 162 F-22 full equiped, in 9x18 squadrons really operative , is a good proportion with USA


    Last edited by AMCXXL on Wed Jan 29, 2020 8:59 am; edited 1 time in total
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    Post  AMCXXL on Wed Jan 29, 2020 8:53 am

    GarryB wrote:Further to what marcellogo is saying... the ten year plans are not set in stone... they are just plans... half way through the plan period things are re-evaluated and changes are made... they might plan to buy 250 aircraft over a 10 year period and order 76 in the second year of that period... but at year five in that ten year plan period they might order another 76 or even 150 if things are going well or international things are going badly and they want more aircraft on hand.

    Equally, 5 years in to that plan they might have some Su-57s in service and realise they are much better than Su-35s and a similar price to buy and operate so they might decide to stop making Su-35s and double the numbers of Su-57s they make to 500. The MiG-35 being smaller and cheaper means they might keep buying that as the cheap light fighter until a new 5th gen lighter aircraft can be developed.

    Or they might decide that the Su-57 and stealthy fighters in general are just a gimmick and are more expensive but really don't offer any real practical advantages in war time... which Israel is learning with its super expensive F-35s that are no more effective than the F-16s and F-15s they operate, so they might reduce the number of Su-57s they buy to 150 and to increase production of Su-35s and MiG-35s to compensate.

    When they ordered 250 Su-57s they had no idea what sort of performance they would be getting and what sort of costs would result... after 5 years of experience and new information they can look at the reasons for the decision 5 years before to order 250 and decide if these reasons still hold up and are still relevant... If they are not then changes should be made.
    .

    Notjing of this will hapend, the air forcé has a plan and will not change

    after the break of USSR Rusia gets 11 Su-27 regiments

    In the better case Rusia will get 10 to 12 regiments of air defence figthers, excluding MiG-31

    This can be: 7 regiments of Su-35 and 3 of Su-57 , or 6+4, or 7+4, or 6+5, or 8+4 , or 7+5 ot 6+6, those are all the possibilities

    In each main military region will be one Su-57 regiment (Leningrad, krasnodar and Jabarobsk)
    After that other regiment in North and other in near Moscow could be very possible

    Rusian Armed Forces will have about 800-850 figthers (600-650 VKS and 200 Navy), this means to restore the strength of the Order of Battle previous to year 2008


    Of course, no MiG-35 will be purchased except one squadron for Kubinka and probably one or two more for Astrakhan, just to restore the current number of MiG-29.
    In fact I have the hope of one combat regiment of MiG-35f or the South District, where there are not MiG-31 regiments, but after Yerevan is going to receive Su-30, is clear RuAF does not want MiG-35 at all

    MiG-35 will have massive sales to India that needs hundreds and hundreds of airplanes in next decade. A naval versión for export is also probable
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    Post  Isos on Wed Jan 29, 2020 9:34 am

    Su-57 will go to TOTALLY NEW regiments , dont replace nothing, increase the size of airforce, and will be received in reason of 1 regment each Air Army.

    Well su-35 and su-30SM haven't replaced 1 for 1 the su-27 and mig-29.

    "Increase" isn't the best word you could use.
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    Post  AMCXXL on Wed Jan 29, 2020 11:08 am

    Isos wrote:
    Su-57 will go to TOTALLY NEW regiments , dont replace nothing, increase the size of airforce, and will be received in reason of 1 regment each Air Army.

    Well su-35 and su-30SM haven't replaced 1 for 1 the su-27 and mig-29.

    "Increase" isn't the best word you could use.

    No ? really ?

    By the way, Mr Putin used that word: "increase" for the reform of tha Air Force.

    He said: first, replacement , later, slow incrase


    how many regiments or squadrons had in 2010-2012 ??
    the replacement is taking the order of battle in 2010-2012 when the main reform for re-built the Air Force began
    You are confusing Russia with USSR

    In fact there are more regiments now,
    Belbek in Crimea was open in december 2014 (until march 2014 was under Ucraine rule), and 689º in Kaliningrad was disbanded in 2009.
    By 2010 there were ZERO Su-27 in Crimea and 4 as much in Chkalovsk

    This two regiments will receive Su-35, total 48, so it is a net increase from ten years ago of + 44

    About MiG-29 all existing the units are replaced by Su-30SM (Domna, Millerovo, Kursk and later Yerevan) in adition the Navy will receive several regiments in this new decade.

    The Su-57 will be new units , starting from zero, with a new and different regimental structure
    Probably the first Su-57 regiment will go to Dzemgi , and the regiment of Su-35 will be relocated in other airbase, as Dolinsk-Sokol in Sakhalin or Kalinka in Jabarovsk

    In other aeras will be necesary build new aerodromes or rebuild the older that were abandoned betwwen 1993 and 2008
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    Post  marcellogo on Wed Jan 29, 2020 11:43 am

    Isos wrote:
    Su-57 will go to TOTALLY NEW regiments , dont replace nothing, increase the size of airforce, and will be received in reason of 1 regment each Air Army.

    Well su-35 and su-30SM haven't replaced 1 for 1 the su-27 and mig-29.

    "Increase" isn't the best word you could use.

    Why should they?
    There are also the SU-27SM and SM3 and the Mig-29SMT to be considered in the total sum and even the oldest of them are still new frames with a lot of remaining flight hour to be used.
    Su-30Mk2 actually used for training would form another operative regiment so original numbers are about to be entirely covered by the actual development plan order.
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    Post  AMCXXL on Wed Jan 29, 2020 12:22 pm

    George1 wrote:
    Isos wrote:2012 is the year when they really started puting money in their armed forces, 2014 being the best year.

    Russian Air Force numbers and procurement plans - Page 27 Eow3f810

    https://bmpd.livejournal.com/3907389.html

    so in 2019 we had

    10x Su-35S
    8x Su-34 and

    2xMiG-35S

    I put here the article's text for MiG-35. These 2 that were delivered are actually experimental

    Two MiG-35 fighters. In June 2019, the Russian Aerospace Forces were transferred two pre-production (actually experimental) MiG-35S fighters - a single MiG-35S (flight number is unclear) and a double MiG-35UB (flight number "11 blue"), built at the Lukhovitsky Aviation Plant (LAZ) named after P.A. Voronin - a branch of JSC "RSK" MiG ". Both of them were built according to a contract signed in February 2017 with the Russian Ministry of Defense for two samples of the MiG-35 fighter for their connection to the expanded program of state tests of this type. State tests with the participation of two prototypes of the MiG-35 built in 2016 were launched in May 2018 and to date, with the connection of two sides of the 2019 construction, have not yet been completed.

    In August 2018, the Russian Ministry of Defense signed a contract with the United Aircraft Corporation JSC (UAC, which includes MiG RSK) for the supply of the first six serial MiG-35S and MiG-35UB fighters with a contract execution period from 2018 to 2023 years. It was reported that the first plane on it was supposed to be delivered at the end of 2019, but this did not happen.



    Also for exports in 2019:

    Regarding export deliveries, we can say that, according to our information, in 2019 the Russian aviation industry delivered 18 new-built combat aircraft abroad, including ten MiG-29M / MiG-29M2 fighters to Egypt, four Su-30SM fighters to Belarus and four Su-30SM fighters to Armenia, as well as ten combat training aircraft Yak-130 - including six to Myanmar and four to Belarus.

    In addition, six Su-30K (formerly Indian) fighter jets were delivered to Angola, and two MiG-29UB combat trainers were handed over to Mongolia. It is possible that the transfer of military aircraft from the availability for Syria was also carried out.

    The official figures of the Ministry of Defense speak in general about 145 aircraft received among new, modernized and repaired, which are still less than other years that exceeded 200

    NEW aircraft:
    - 10 Su-35
    - 8 Su-34
    - 3 Il-76MD-90A

    MODERNIZED have been received:
    - a dozen or more of MiG-31BM
    - a dozen of Su-25SM3
    - 1 Tu-160M
    - 1 An-124-100 (taken out of the reserve)

    NEW HELICOPTERS:
    - 1 Mi-26
    - 8 Ka-52 in autumn and another lot now, probably 14 in total
    - 8 Mi-28UB
    - 6 Mi-35M
    - 14 Mi-8MTV-5
    - 12 to 14 Mi-8AMTSh, including 4 of the VIP version
    - 4 Mi-8MTPR-1 at least
    Modernized:
    - About 10 or 12 Ka-27M, the total modernization is 46, that should end in 2020


    I don't know if I forget something, the missing ones until 145 will be MLU, including several Tu-22M3, Tu-95S and Tu-142, also 1 An-124-100 and several Il-76MD.
    Of the tactical aviation logically being fairly new or modernized now, only a few are repaired, especially Su-24, Su-27 and Mi-24 are still repaired


    In addition, several aircraft have been delivered for state testing and certification by the ministry of industry, which are military property but are not operated by the Air Force or Navy
    - One MiG-35UB
    - 2 Mi-28MH
    - 2 Mi-38

    The Su-57 scheduled to perform state tests crashed days before being delivered in December


    About bmpd that sais two MiG-35 were delivered, but there are not any evidence, probably is confusing with the two prototypes Nº702 and Nº712
    In 2019 only the MiG-35UB with Nº11 blue was seen in Lukhovitsiy and other places of Moscow region

    The contract of 2 MiG-35 for test and certification is until 2020 (probably one in 2019 and other in 2020)
    The deliveries for the troops will star in 2021 or later as the contract for 6 serial MiG-35 ends in 2023


    Last edited by AMCXXL on Wed Jan 29, 2020 12:37 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    Post  Isos on Wed Jan 29, 2020 12:34 pm

    Why should they?
    There are also the SU-27SM and SM3 and the Mig-29SMT to be considered in the total sum and even the oldest of them are still new frames with a lot of remaining flight hour to be used.
    Su-30Mk2 actually used for training would form another operative regiment so original numbers are about to be entirely covered by the actual development plan order.

    Because Russia is big. 100 su-35 split in the all territory means 24 in the west, 24 in the far east, 24 in the south and another 28 somewhere else. That's very low numbers and they can't help each other.

    When you have Nato on the left and Japan with a huge airforce on the right you need a lot of aircraft. Both are upgrading their air forces with 5th generation fighters.

    Russia should be making 24 su-35 every year since its introduction to have at least 300 of them.
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    Post  AMCXXL on Wed Jan 29, 2020 12:47 pm

    Isos wrote:
    Why should they?
    There are also the SU-27SM and SM3 and the Mig-29SMT to be considered in the total sum and even the oldest of them are still new frames with a lot of remaining flight hour to be used.
    Su-30Mk2 actually used for training would form another operative regiment so original numbers are about to be entirely covered by the actual development plan order.

    Because Russia is big. 100 su-35 split in the all territory means 24 in the west, 24 in the far east, 24 in the south and another 28 somewhere else. That's very low numbers and they can't help each other.

    When you have Nato on the left and Japan with a huge airforce on the right you need a lot of aircraft. Both are upgrading their air forces with 5th generation fighters.

    Russia should be making 24 su-35 every year since its introduction to have at least 300 of them.

    Rusia has near 200 betwwen Su-35 and Su-27. the first 100 Su-35 orders were for 2011-2020.
    In 2021 new orders to replace the other Su-27
    Also think Su-27UB will be replaced for Su-30SM, so with 170 could be enough

    Russia will have 300 or more between Su-35 and Su-57, and this is the same strengh in number of regments that had after the break of USSR
    Also MiG-31 , Su-30


    If NATO (USA and thier puppets) wants war with Russia,  a scorching fire will sweep USA and UK

    Putin said very clear: Russia will not figth another war in its own territory

    The new armament that Russia is developing sais very clear to the talasocratic enemies of Russia: If you attack Russia you will get a huge retaliaton in your own territory
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    Post  AMCXXL on Wed Jan 29, 2020 1:14 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:
    Isos wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:they said they will buy more Su-35 and Su-30SM (after the upgrades).  We just have to wait till either end of this year or MAKS.

    Putin ordered 76 su-57 while the expected number was lower to allow more su-35/30 and mass production will start this year. I doubt they will invest more in flanker family since they never expected 76 su-57 to be ordered at once.

    And the fact they ordered 76 su57 isn't just a matter of number. It also means they think it is much better than su-30/35 and worth investing money.


    They do but its a different plant altogether (KnaAPO).  Irkutsk plant is producing the Su-30SM and they already made demands for fitting Irbis radar and Su-35 electronics/engines on it.  This demand was made by MoD themselves.  So they will for sure end up purchasing more.

    Plus the 76 Su-57 are till 2028.  That is a long time from now.  They will invest in more Su-35 to accommodate the low acceptance of Su-57.

    The Su-35 will be produced at a constant rate untill the total replacement of Su-27

    The Su-57, for the moment only are prototupes, the airplane for test and certification crashed in december,

    When the two test Su-57 contracted will be received , it will star the state test and certification, other two years, and later will be formed the first squadron for training purposes of the master pilots who will train the other pilots, and make the training strategy of the Air Force for this new airplane

    So in not easy any combat squadron will be formed before the Su-35 supply in the air force is completed, and it is logical

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