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    Yemeni Conflict: News #2

    zorobabel
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    Post  zorobabel on Sat Sep 14, 2019 7:01 pm

    Saudi Arabia Shuts Down About Half Its Oil Output After Drone Strikes
    Shutdown amounts to a loss of some five million barrels a day, roughly 5% of the world’s daily production of crude

    A coordinated drone strike hit at the heart of Saudi oil production on Saturday, sparking an enormous blaze and forcing the kingdom to shut down about half of its crude output, according to people familiar with matter.

    ...https://www.wsj.com/articles/drone-strikes-spark-fires-at-saudi-oil-facilities-11568443375
    zorobabel
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    Post  zorobabel on Sat Sep 14, 2019 7:22 pm

    If they can continue to hit oil facilities, they could really wreak havoc for Saudi Aramco's IPO.
    kvs
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    Post  kvs on Sat Sep 14, 2019 7:54 pm

    zorobabel wrote:Saudi Arabia Shuts Down About Half Its Oil Output After Drone Strikes
    Shutdown amounts to a loss of some five million barrels a day, roughly 5% of the world’s daily production of crude

    A coordinated drone strike hit at the heart of Saudi oil production on Saturday, sparking an enormous blaze and forcing the kingdom to shut down about half of its crude output, according to people familiar with matter.

    ...https://www.wsj.com/articles/drone-strikes-spark-fires-at-saudi-oil-facilities-11568443375


    There is no way that daily oil production (i.e. crude) is 100 million barrels. At most it is 86 million barrels and includes biofuels (ethanol from corn and sugar cane and biodiesel from palm oil).

    Global production of crude oil and condensate is less than 80 million barrels per day.

    https://stratasadvisors.com/Insights/2019/053019-Upstream-Crude-Condensate-Production-Overview-Q2

    So 5 million barrels per day of crude is about 6.4 %. That's going to cause a nice spike in oil prices on Monday.

    medo
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    Post  medo on Sat Sep 14, 2019 8:23 pm

    kvs wrote:
    zorobabel wrote:Saudi Arabia Shuts Down About Half Its Oil Output After Drone Strikes
    Shutdown amounts to a loss of some five million barrels a day, roughly 5% of the world’s daily production of crude

    A coordinated drone strike hit at the heart of Saudi oil production on Saturday, sparking an enormous blaze and forcing the kingdom to shut down about half of its crude output, according to people familiar with matter.

    ...https://www.wsj.com/articles/drone-strikes-spark-fires-at-saudi-oil-facilities-11568443375


    There is no way that daily oil production (i.e. crude) is 100 million barrels.    At most it is 86 million barrels and includes biofuels (ethanol from corn and sugar cane and biodiesel from palm oil).  

    Global production of crude oil and condensate is less than 80 million barrels per day.  

    https://stratasadvisors.com/Insights/2019/053019-Upstream-Crude-Condensate-Production-Overview-Q2

    So 5 million barrels per day of crude is about 6.4 %.    That's going to cause a nice spike in oil prices on Monday.


    It's half of Saudi oil production, not whole World oil production. For whole World it represent around 5% of oil production. Anyway, it is excellent result for 10 Houti drones or cruise missiles, whatever they use in this strike. This prove high quality of iranian weapons to effectivelly strike deep into Saudi hartland, which is well protected by Saudi air defense and US air defense and air forces. They catch Saudi and US air defenses with pants down. Don't forget that Trump send additional US troops to KSA, including air defense, around US drone shot down and crisis with tankers.
    zorobabel
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    Post  zorobabel on Sat Sep 14, 2019 8:34 pm

    kvs wrote:
    zorobabel wrote:Saudi Arabia Shuts Down About Half Its Oil Output After Drone Strikes
    Shutdown amounts to a loss of some five million barrels a day, roughly 5% of the world’s daily production of crude

    A coordinated drone strike hit at the heart of Saudi oil production on Saturday, sparking an enormous blaze and forcing the kingdom to shut down about half of its crude output, according to people familiar with matter.

    ...https://www.wsj.com/articles/drone-strikes-spark-fires-at-saudi-oil-facilities-11568443375


    There is no way that daily oil production (i.e. crude) is 100 million barrels.    At most it is 86 million barrels and includes biofuels (ethanol from corn and sugar cane and biodiesel from palm oil).  

    Global production of crude oil and condensate is less than 80 million barrels per day.  

    https://stratasadvisors.com/Insights/2019/053019-Upstream-Crude-Condensate-Production-Overview-Q2

    So 5 million barrels per day of crude is about 6.4 %.    That's going to cause a nice spike in oil prices on Monday.

    That's true. Global oil production is not 100 mbpd.
    magnumcromagnon
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    Post  magnumcromagnon on Sun Sep 15, 2019 1:48 am

    medo wrote:https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-49699429

    Drone attacks have set alight two major oil facilities run by the state-owned company Aramco in Saudi Arabia, state media say.

    Footage showed a huge blaze at Abqaiq, site of Aramco's largest oil processing plant, while a second drone attack started fires in the Khurais oilfield.

    The fires are now under control at both facilities, state media said.

    A spokesman for the Iran-aligned Houthi group in Yemen said it had deployed 10 drones in the attacks.

    The military spokesman, Yahya Sarea, told al-Masirah TV, which is owned by the Houthi movement and is based in Beirut, that further attacks could be expected in the future.

    He said Saturday's attack was one of the biggest operations the Houthi forces had undertaken inside Saudi Arabia and was carried out in "co-operation with the honourable people inside the kingdom".

    Yemeni Conflict: News #2 - Page 40 5d7c8910

    Houtis made a succesfull strike with 10 drones on Saudi largest oil processing plant in the World in Abqaiq, which process around 7 million barells per day and on Khurais olifield. They are far away from Yemen and drones have to fly deep into Saudi air space.  Saudi Air defense is one of the best on paper armed with Oerlikon 35 mm Skyguard complexes, Stinger MANPADs, older Crotale and I-HAWK SAMs and modern Patriot PAC-2 and PAC-3 SAMs, THAAD and most modern French VL MICA SAMs. Saudi air space is also protected with F-15S and Eurofighters. Oil facility with such strategic importance is for sure well protected and there are also a lot of US military presence around including US air defense as protection against Iran with their SAMs and ECM complexes. This is a very big blow for western air defense complexes. Syrian air defense with Russian SAMs have no problem to shot down various missiles, bombs and drones launched from terrorists, NATO or Israel.

    Oh the anti-Pantsir propagandists are eating plates of shit right now lol!
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    Post  yavar on Sun Sep 15, 2019 4:55 am

    Yemen Ansarullah movement, Launches Major Drone Attack on, major Saudi Aramco oil-processing facility Abqaiq Eastern Province, blasts.


    Major Saudi Arabia oil facilities hit by Houthi drone strikes
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/14/major-saudi-arabia-oil-facilities-hit-by-drone-strikes


    kvs
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    Post  kvs on Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:27 am

    Maybe this is real, maybe it is staged. We have no video of how serious the damage is. And the timing smells. As soon as Bolton is let go we have Iran
    being accused of bombing this facility by Pompeo.


    Cyberspec
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    Post  Cyberspec on Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:55 am

    It's real all right...they tried to explain the smoke with "emergency flares"  Very Happy
    Apparently, cruise missiles were used as well...which is where the Iranian connection is made
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    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Sun Sep 15, 2019 7:53 am

    Saudi Air defense is one of the best on paper armed with Oerlikon 35 mm Skyguard complexes, Stinger MANPADs, older Crotale and I-HAWK SAMs and modern Patriot PAC-2 and PAC-3 SAMs, THAAD and most modern French VL MICA SAMs. Saudi air space is also protected with F-15S and Eurofighters.

    Just goes to show that it doens't matter what systems you have in your air defence... radar coverage and the IADS that ties it all together and shares information and command and control is what really matters during an actual attack.
    medo
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    Post  medo on Sun Sep 15, 2019 10:43 am

    GarryB wrote:
    Saudi Air defense is one of the best on paper armed with Oerlikon 35 mm Skyguard complexes, Stinger MANPADs, older Crotale and I-HAWK SAMs and modern Patriot PAC-2 and PAC-3 SAMs, THAAD and most modern French VL MICA SAMs. Saudi air space is also protected with F-15S and Eurofighters.

    Just goes to show that it doens't matter what systems you have in your air defence... radar coverage and the IADS that ties it all together and shares information and command and control is what really matters during an actual attack.

    According to Westerners, US is the best in this regard. So this is not an excuse for Saudi and US air defense.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-49054323

    The Pentagon has said US troops are being deployed to Saudi Arabia to defend American interests from "emergent credible threats".

    The move comes amid heightened tensions with Iran over the safety of shipping lanes in the Gulf.

    Saudi Arabia confirmed that King Salman had approved the move "to strengthen regional security and stability".

    The kingdom has not hosted US combat forces since 2003, when Donald Rumsfeld announced their withdrawal.

    The US presence in Saudi Arabia started with Operation Desert Storm in 1991, when Iraq invaded Kuwait.

    BBC North America correspondent Peter Bowes says the US is understood to be deploying Patriot air defence missile batteries manned by 500 soldiers to Prince Sultan Base in Saudi Arabia.
    ◾Gulf crisis: Are we heading for a new tanker war?
    ◾Iran-US tensions: What's going on?
    ◾US-Iran relations: A brief history

    The US also plans to send a squadron of F-22 stealth fighters to the base.

    "This movement of forces provides an additional deterrent and ensures our ability to defend our forces and interests in the region from emergent, credible threats," a statement from US Central Command said.

    US send additional troops few months ago to protect US interest in KSA which also include largest oil processing plant and instalations. With those additional troops also come additioal Patriot battalion. This strategicaly important area is defended by Saudi and US early warning radars, Saudi and US AWACS planes, Saudi and US fighter jets and Saudi and US air defense batteries and ECM complexes. Attack was done by 10 cruise missiles, which are not stealth and there wasn't any jamming, so Saudi and US units should shot them down without any problem. With such density of Saudi and US air force and air defense units in that region, this is enormous success for Houties.

    Yemeni Conflict: News #2 - Page 40 47027310
    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible on Sun Sep 15, 2019 10:54 am

    In US/Saud defense - cruise missiles and Drones fly very low. Meaning that detection/tracking time/distance is very short. So in this regard, SHORADS are what would be very important. And this is where Saudi messed up I suppose. Strong IADS is important in interconnectivity. I doubt this exists in Saudi Arabia.
    medo
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    Post  medo on Sun Sep 15, 2019 12:31 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:In US/Saud defense - cruise missiles and Drones fly very low.  Meaning that detection/tracking time/distance is very short.  So in this regard, SHORADS are what would be very important.  And this is where Saudi messed up I suppose.  Strong IADS is important in interconnectivity.  I doubt this exists in Saudi Arabia.

    Few cruise missiles should be easy targets for F-15 and Eurofighters. Saudi air defense also have Skyguard and ultra modern French VL MICA for that job. Older Crotale could do the job against cruise missiles as well. They are not stealth, they are subsonic, there were no jamming and area is flat desert, so they could be detected at long distance as any low flying plane and easy target to shot down. They were not in such big number, that saudi modern air defense could not deal with them. Saudis also have strong military presence at Yemeni border, where they are fighting with Houties together with EW radars and Patriot batteries. They could detect them well inside Yemen and shot down them, when they are crossing border or earlier. Whole air force and air defense structure of KSA and US fail and KSA lost half of oil production to 10 cruise missiles.

    Serbia manage to shot down many similar Tomahawk missiles in 1999 with old S-125 Neva in heavy ECM environment and Serbian land is full of hills and forests, which better hide such low flying cruise missiles. I don't think old S-125 Neva is better complex than modern VL MICA.

    Yemeni Conflict: News #2 - Page 40 Dwyw0y10

    Yemeni Conflict: News #2 - Page 40 Dwyw0y11

    Saudi VL MICA SAM complex. VL MICA have range of 20 km and 9 km in altitude. Mica have both IIR and ARH homing heads and as AAMs, they are the main armament of Rafale jets. If Patriot have problems, VL MICA should be deadly effective as it is SHORAD/medium range system. As the last line of defense KSA have Skyguard Oerlikon 35 mm AA guns and Stinger MANPADs. What else they need more? This air defense is worth a lot of money, which usual countries doesn't have. Saudis have Mica missiles on the ground, Iris-T missiles on Eurofighters, AIM-9X and AMRAAMs on F-15. They have the best western missiles in armament.
    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible on Sun Sep 15, 2019 12:39 pm

    Fair enough Medo.

    BTW, your expertise in radar knowledge is needed at the Su-57 thread, since you know more details of the known radar systems available at the moment.
    kvs
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    Post  kvs on Sun Sep 15, 2019 4:32 pm

    Cyberspec wrote:It's real all right...they tried to explain the smoke with "emergency flares"  Very Happy
    Apparently, cruise missiles were used as well...which is where the Iranian connection is made
    Yemeni Conflict: News #2 - Page 40 EEbrbKAWwAAvRVB?format=jpg&name=medium
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    This is not any evidence of how serious the damage is. Try again. A plume of black smoke of the same size can be produced by setting an oil storage tank on fire.



    Isos
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    Post  Isos on Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:53 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:In US/Saud defense - cruise missiles and Drones fly very low.  Meaning that detection/tracking time/distance is very short.  So in this regard, SHORADS are what would be very important.  And this is where Saudi messed up I suppose.  Strong IADS is important in interconnectivity.  I doubt this exists in Saudi Arabia.

    They will likely buy some Tors and pantsirs with kasta 2E2 radars and command posts to secure their oil fields.

    They don't need a huge IADS.

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