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    Situation in KSA

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    Walther von Oldenburg

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    Situation in KSA

    Post  Walther von Oldenburg on Mon Oct 26, 2015 5:26 pm

    KSA situation is not good... and detoriating further.

    There are economic problems, there is the lengthy, Vietnam-like war in Yemen and there's unconfirmed info that a coup agaisnt King Salman is currently being organized. If the rumors are true and the coup indeed takes place, it may throw KSA into true chaos - there are numerous factions in the Al Saud family and each of them owns more wealth than some smaller countries... add other tribes and Shias into the equation and you get a recipe for the end of KSA.

    victor1985

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    Re: Situation in KSA

    Post  victor1985 on Mon Oct 26, 2015 5:54 pm

    Who is ksa?
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    Project Canada

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    Re: Situation in KSA

    Post  Project Canada on Mon Oct 26, 2015 6:30 pm

    KSA warned UK about potential damage to relations if the latter continues its meddling with KSA's human rights affairs Rolling Eyes
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    Dima

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    Re: Situation in KSA

    Post  Dima on Mon Oct 26, 2015 7:01 pm

    victor1985 wrote:Who is ksa?
    Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

    victor1985

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    Re: Situation in KSA

    Post  victor1985 on Mon Oct 26, 2015 7:11 pm

    Thanks
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    Godric

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    Re: Situation in KSA

    Post  Godric on Mon Oct 26, 2015 7:16 pm

    Kingdom of Saudi A$$holes more like it
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    Vladimir79

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    Re: Situation in KSA

    Post  Vladimir79 on Mon Oct 26, 2015 7:17 pm

    Project Canada wrote:KSA warned UK about potential damage to relations if the latter continues its meddling with KSA's human rights affairs Rolling Eyes

    Do you think they will cancel any further Typhoon deals? They seem to prefer relations with France.


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    Militarov

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    Re: Situation in KSA

    Post  Militarov on Mon Oct 26, 2015 8:22 pm

    Vladimir79 wrote:
    Project Canada wrote:KSA warned UK about potential damage to relations if the latter continues its meddling with KSA's human rights affairs Rolling Eyes

    Do you think they will cancel any further Typhoon deals?  They seem to prefer relations with France.

    They will probably take what was already ordered and then try to get F15SE or even more F16 Block 61. Who knows if relations go worse they might even start offering second hand Eurofighters around..
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    George1

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    Re: Situation in KSA

    Post  George1 on Mon Oct 26, 2015 10:47 pm

    Walther von Oldenburg wrote:and there's unconfirmed info that a coup agaisnt King Salman is currently being organized.

    you mean coup by republican nasserist-style officers?


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    JohninMK

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    Re: Situation in KSA

    Post  JohninMK on Mon Oct 26, 2015 10:56 pm

    George1 wrote:
    Walther von Oldenburg wrote:and there's unconfirmed info that a coup agaisnt King Salman is currently being organized.

    you mean coup by republican nasserist-style officers?
    Expect so, you know, those guys showing how to really fight in Yemen.

    But seriously most of the senior officers in the Saudi armed forces seem to be members of the 'tribe' (claimed to be 25000 strong) so any coup will just be a change in the branch that is in charge, not in what happens.
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    max steel

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    Re: Situation in KSA

    Post  max steel on Mon Oct 26, 2015 11:13 pm


    Svyatoslavich

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    Re: Situation in KSA

    Post  Svyatoslavich on Tue Oct 27, 2015 12:08 am

    Walther von Oldenburg wrote:KSA situation is not good... and detoriating further.
    What is bad for Saudi Arabia is good for the world.
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    George1

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    Re: Situation in KSA

    Post  George1 on Fri Oct 30, 2015 12:28 pm

    If there are economic problems in such a rich state that means that corruption is at record high


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    max steel

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    Re: Situation in KSA

    Post  max steel on Mon Jan 04, 2016 6:42 am

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    flamming_python

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    Re: Situation in KSA

    Post  flamming_python on Mon Jan 04, 2016 3:27 pm

    The time is now for Russia (and Iran) to pile on pressure on the pathetic brutal dictatorship of Saudi Arabia. They are not collapsing yet, but the first foundations have already been broken. Make all efforts to increase oil production to new record highs, and drive prices down still further.
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    Walther von Oldenburg

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    Re: Situation in KSA

    Post  Walther von Oldenburg on Mon Jan 04, 2016 6:40 pm

    flamming_python wrote:The time is now for Russia (and Iran) to pile on pressure on the pathetic brutal dictatorship of Saudi Arabia. They are not collapsing yet, but the first foundations have already been broken. Make all efforts to increase oil production to new record highs, and drive prices down still further.
    The same strategy was used by US and KSA in the 1980s to "help" facilitate USSR's collapse... what an irony!
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    flamming_python

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    Re: Situation in KSA

    Post  flamming_python on Mon Jan 04, 2016 6:48 pm

    Walther von Oldenburg wrote:
    flamming_python wrote:The time is now for Russia (and Iran) to pile on pressure on the pathetic brutal dictatorship of Saudi Arabia. They are not collapsing yet, but the first foundations have already been broken. Make all efforts to increase oil production to new record highs, and drive prices down still further.
    The same strategy was used by US and KSA in the 1980s to "help" facilitate USSR's collapse... what an irony!

    It was indeed, and now its payback time for the world's most universally reviled shit-hole.

    Iran-Saudi Arabian tensions would be a good backdrop to start doing the right work in. Of course, there is no need to openly oppose them or interfere in anything; no need for Russia to directly involve itself in the Sunni-Shi'ite mess. All pieces can manuevered into position behind the scenes.

    I wouldn't think to wish ISIS on anyone. But for Saudi Arabia, it might actually bring an improvement to human rights. ISIS, being squeezed in a vice between the SAA, Kurds and Iraq, may smell blood and make the decision to strike out towards the south against an increasingly weakened, destabilizing and war exhausted Saudi Arabia.
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    Walther von Oldenburg

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    Re: Situation in KSA

    Post  Walther von Oldenburg on Mon Jan 04, 2016 7:09 pm

    IF you were in charge of Iranian foreign policy, what would you do, flamming_python?

    The first thing I would do is start unlimited arms supply to Yemen. Give them ATGMs, RPGs and MANPADS, then small arms etc. Deploy some Basij brigade + S-F. I would escalate the war until most of Saudi army is engaged in Yemen. Then I would send IRGC S-F to Shia regions of Saudi Arabia.
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    flamming_python

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    Re: Situation in KSA

    Post  flamming_python on Mon Jan 04, 2016 9:33 pm

    Walther von Oldenburg wrote:IF you were in charge of Iranian foreign policy, what would you do, flamming_python?

    The first thing I would do is start unlimited arms supply to Yemen. Give them ATGMs, RPGs and MANPADS, then small arms etc. Deploy some Basij brigade + S-F. I would escalate the war until most of Saudi army is engaged in Yemen. Then I would send IRGC S-F to Shia regions of Saudi Arabia.

    I wouldn't move to an open conflict with Saudi Arabia. The clock is ticking for them and I'm not ready to sacrifice sanctions relief and other benefits I'd have received as a result of the Nuclear Deal - including production agreements with Russia and all the rest of it.

    Saudi Army is getting humiliated in Yemen as it is. Although, some extra arms won't do any harm. But save the officers and brigades for the main theatre - Syria. Main thing would be to drive oil production up, to increase the pressure on their finances and budget.

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    Re: Situation in KSA

    Post  JohninMK on Mon Jan 04, 2016 10:11 pm

    flamming_python wrote:
    Walther von Oldenburg wrote:IF you were in charge of Iranian foreign policy, what would you do, flamming_python?

    The first thing I would do is start unlimited arms supply to Yemen. Give them ATGMs, RPGs and MANPADS, then small arms etc. Deploy some Basij brigade + S-F. I would escalate the war until most of Saudi army is engaged in Yemen. Then I would send IRGC S-F to Shia regions of Saudi Arabia.

    I wouldn't move to an open conflict with Saudi Arabia. The clock is ticking for them and I'm not ready to sacrifice sanctions relief and other benefits I'd have received as a result of the Nuclear Deal - including production agreements with Russia and all the rest of it.

    Saudi Army is getting humiliated in Yemen as it is. Although, some extra arms won't do any harm. But save the officers and brigades for the main theatre - Syria. Main thing would be to drive oil production up, to increase the pressure on their finances and budget.
    At the moment, with very little move in the oil price, the world seems to agree with you.

    In a way the Saudis have just pulled their version of Turkey's Su-24 move. Virtually no-one, outside the Wabidiot grouping, agrees with their action and it will give Iran the internal political support to double down in Yemen and Syria.

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    Re: Situation in KSA

    Post  JohninMK on Mon Jan 04, 2016 10:20 pm

    Thanks.
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    max steel

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    Start Preparing for the Collapse of the Saudi Kingdom

    Post  max steel on Thu Feb 18, 2016 4:13 pm

    Start Preparing for the Collapse of the Saudi Kingdom


    Saudi Arabia is no state at all. It's an unstable business so corrupt to resemble a criminal organization and the U.S. should get ready for the day after.

    For half a century, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has been the linchpin of U.S. Mideast policy. A guaranteed supply of oil has bought a guaranteed supply of security. Ignoring autocratic practices and the export of Wahhabi extremism, Washington stubbornly dubs its ally “moderate.” So tight is the trust that U.S. special operators dip into Saudi petrodollars as a counterterrorism slush fund without a second thought. In a sea of chaos, goes the refrain, the kingdom is one state that’s stable.

    But is it?

    In fact, Saudi Arabia is no state at all. There are two ways to describe it: as a political enterprise with a clever but ultimately unsustainable business model, or so corrupt as to resemble in its functioning a vertically and horizontally integrated criminal organization. Either way, it can’t last. It’s past time U.S. decision-makers began planning for the collapse of the Saudi kingdom.

    In recent conversations with military and other government personnel, we were startled at how startled they seemed at this prospect. Here’s the analysis they should be working through.

    Understood one way, the Saudi king is CEO of a family business that converts oil into payoffs that buy political loyalty. They take two forms: cash handouts or commercial concessions for the increasingly numerous scions of the royal clan, and a modicum of public goods and employment opportunities for commoners. The coercive “stick” is supplied by brutal internal security services lavishly equipped with American equipment.

    Related: The GOP 2016 Contenders Swooning for Saudi Arabia
    Related: Riyadh Responds to Iran Deal: Give Us 600 Patriot Missiles
    Related: Syria’s Peace Hinges on Iran vs. Saudi Arabia

    The U.S. has long counted on the ruling family having bottomless coffers of cash with which to rent loyalty. Even accounting today’s low oil prices, and as Saudi officials step up arms purchases and military adventures in Yemen and elsewhere, Riyadh is hardly running out of funds.

    Still, expanded oil production in the face of such low prices—until the Feb. 16 announcement of a Saudi-Russian freeze at very high January levels—may reflect an urgent need for revenue as well as other strategic imperatives. Talk of a Saudi Aramco IPO similarly suggests a need for hard currency.

    A political market, moreover, functions according to demand as well as supply. What if the price of loyalty rises?

    It appears that is just what’s happening. King Salman had to spend lavishly to secure the allegiance of the notables who were pledged to the late King Abdullah. Here’s what played out in two other countries when this kind of inflation hit. In South Sudan, an insatiable elite not only diverted the newly minted country’s oil money to private pockets but also kept up their outsized demands when the money ran out, sparking a descent into chaos. The Somali government enjoys generous donor support, but is priced out of a very competitive political market by a host of other buyers—with ideological, security or criminal agendas of their own.

    Such comparisons may be offensive to Saudi leaders, but they are telling. If the loyalty price index keeps rising, the monarchy could face political insolvency.


    Looked at another way, the Saudi ruling elite is operating something like a sophisticated criminal enterprise, when populations everywhere are making insistent demands for government accountability. With its political and business elites interwoven in a monopolistic network, quantities of unaccountable cash leaving the country for private investments and lavish purchases abroad, and state functions bent to serve these objectives, Saudi Arabia might be compared to such kleptocracies as Viktor Yanukovich’s Ukraine.

    Increasingly, Saudi citizens are seeing themselves as just that: citizens, not subjects. In countries as diverse as Nigeria, Ukraine, Brazil, Moldova, and Malaysia, people are contesting criminalized government and impunity for public officials—sometimes violently. In more than half a dozen countries in 2015, populations took to the streets to protest corruption. In three of them, heads of state are either threatened or have had to resign. Elsewhere, the same grievances have contributed to the expansion of jihadi movements or criminal organizations posing as Robin Hoods. Russia and China’s external adventurism can at least partially be explained as an effort to re-channel their publics‘ dissatisfaction with the quality of governance.


    For the moment, it is largely Saudi Arabia’s Shiite minority that is voicing political demands. But the highly educated Sunni majority, with unprecedented exposure to the outside world, is unlikely to stay satisfied forever with a few favors doled out by geriatric rulers impervious to their input. And then there are the “guest workers.” Saudi officials, like those in other Gulf states, seem to think they can exploit an infinite supply of indigents grateful to work at whatever conditions. But citizens are now heavily outnumbered in their own countries by laborers who may soon begin claiming rights.

    For decades, Riyadh has eased pressure by exporting its dissenters—like Osama bin Laden—fomenting extremism across the Muslim world. But that strategy can backfire: bin Laden’s critique of Saudi corruption has been taken up by others and resonates among many Arabs. And King Salman (who is 80, by the way) does not display the dexterity of his half-brother Abdullah. He’s reached for some of the familiar items in the autocrats’ toolbox: executing dissidents, embarking on foreign wars, and whipping up sectarian rivalries to discredit Saudi Shiite demands and boost nationalist fervor. Each of these has grave risks.

    There are a few ways things could go, as Salman’s brittle grip on power begins cracking.

    One is a factional struggle within the royal family, with the price of allegiance bid up beyond anyone’s ability to pay in cash. Another is foreign war. With Saudi Arabia and Iran already confronting each other by proxy in Yemen and Syria, escalation is too easy. U.S. decision-makers should bear that danger in mind as they keep pressing for regional solutions to regional problems. A third scenario is insurrection—either a non-violent uprising or a jihadi insurgency—a result all too predictable given episodes throughout the region in recent years.

    The U.S. keeps getting caught flat-footed when purportedly solid countries came apart. At the very least, and immediately, rigorous planning exercises should be executed, in which different scenarios and different potential U.S. actions to reduce the codependence and mitigate the risks can be tested. Most likely, and most dangerous, outcomes should be identified, and an energetic red team should shoot holes in the automatic-pilot thinking that has guided Washington policy to date.

    “Hope is not a policy” is a hackneyed phrase. But choosing not to consider alternatives amounts to the same thing.

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