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    Russian Economy General News: #6

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    sepheronx
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #6

    Post  sepheronx on Fri Jan 22, 2016 1:58 am

    A Different Voice wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:I am not sure, but somewhat close to that, yes.

    But also look at costs in China and the fact that Russia does direct trade rather than going through USD.  There is a reason why they pushed for this such trade.

    It appears that someone in Russia buying a product from China today would have to exchange a LOT more rubles into yuan in order to buy that product, as compared to the same transaction in early 2014. That sucks.

    Yes and No.  Now they don't have to convert to USD to do it.  As well, the costs of goods vs the deflated value of the currency kinda balance out, sorta.

    Edit: Man, now I think about it, for how cheap it will be to make smartphones and stuff like that in Russia would really benefit a lot. They gotta do it.

    Vann7
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #6

    Post  Vann7 on Fri Jan 22, 2016 3:59 am

    A Different Voice wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:I am not sure, but somewhat close to that, yes.

    But also look at costs in China and the fact that Russia does direct trade rather than going through USD.  There is a reason why they pushed for this such trade.

    It appears that someone in Russia buying a product from China today would have to exchange a LOT more rubles into yuan in order to buy that product, as compared to the same transaction in early 2014. That sucks.

    You are correct in your views. but there is some ways to waive around those limitations for the weakening Ruble. Russia Government for example can trade with China without currency at all. One ton of Titanium in change for x tons of food.. etc. and trade for the right price a fair one.
    On division of S-400s in change for X tons of Gold from china. In reality you don't need currency at at all to trade , the whole system of Economy in the world ,will not be in the current state is now with US allowed to make infinite debt and not pay a cent of it.. just taxes. and overvalue currency etc. Even paper credit is being sold as "Gold" ,and western Economy is becoming more
    like a religion , that you need to believe by faith on the system. Had the world had a strong System of trade without money , the speculation and artificial economies will end. To make real money nations will need to produce things of value. Russia was already trading with IRAN for example ,but also with North Korea using pure trade system , since their currency long time ago have no real measured value.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #6

    Post  zg18 on Fri Jan 22, 2016 11:47 am

    Russia added 208 metric tones of gold to CB reserves in 2015, bringing total to 1415 tons


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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #6

    Post  zg18 on Fri Jan 22, 2016 11:49 am

    It should be noted that like in China, gold holdings are probably institutionally diversified. Meaning, reported CB gold is not all the gold in Russian state hands.

    Werewolf
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #6

    Post  Werewolf on Fri Jan 22, 2016 8:06 pm

    Federalize the fucking Central Bank of Russia and then fucking cheer of the gold held by "russia".

    CBR is private bank not a state owned bank.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #6

    Post  JohninMK on Fri Jan 22, 2016 11:33 pm

    A Different Voice wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:The major effect in the past would have been the purchases from China where they had to convert from ruble to USD in order to buy from China.  Since the Yuan is dropping and convertable to Ruble, the costs are not going to be nearly as high for Russia and thus inflation wont be as much as a problem.  A lot of or most domestic consumer goods around the world comes from them anyway.

    Correct me if I am wrong but wasn't the YCN/RUB exchange rate like 5.5 at the beginning of 2014? It's at almost 12 now. What am I missing?
    Nothing, the Yuan is pegged quite closely to the US$ so it should move against the Ruble similarly to the US$. The Chinese are allowing it to drop but only slowly.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #6

    Post  Vann7 on Sat Jan 23, 2016 2:06 am

    Werewolf wrote:Federalize the fucking Central Bank of Russia and then fucking cheer of the gold held by "russia".

    CBR is private bank not a state owned bank.

    Private banks do not give away half of its profits to Russia , neither its Directors elected
    specifically by Putin. In short you are wrong.  Russia Central Bank is more like Gazprom ,
    semi private and semi public. With the Government of Russia being the major bonds holder
    of the Russian central bank. So this means that Putin do have some ways to influence their
    central bank.. is not the same thing you see in the west. Where the bank controls the government and elect its Presidents. Obama and clinton had to get the blessings of Bankers
    before going for the final race of presidential elections.  in Russia Putin was elected by people not bankers. Max Keyser who knows a little of economy is on record saying Russia is one of the few nations in the world that its Governments controls its bank and are not puppets of the western American banking system. So again all those experts saying Russia needs to "nationalize" a bank that is already mostly theirs are all wrong.  

    Just think for a second about that .. did you really think Putin will dare to oppose American Empire if the Russian central bank was controlled by the west and they could shut it down?
    Absolutely not. Putin will be a puppet of America and the EU if what people claim about Central Bank of Russia being a servant of the west. thats not true.  is semi private ,semi public bank with Russian government being the major bonds holder there. So Russia have some powerful
    ways to pressure its bank to do what it wants.. but a total control of the bank is not positive
    for a Russia that wants to keep open the doors for western investors and  trading with the western banking system.  Said in other words , if Americans controlled Russian bank ,why they don't shut it down? why they allow Russia central bank to stop using Dollars and trade with others in RUbles? It is because is a Rebel bank ? no. is simply not the fiction story that the Russia central bank is owned by the west. not true. Russia economy and its bank its dependent of the west.. yes that true.. but is not controlled by it. They can isolate themselves from the west if they want and cut all trade with them and become 100% independent. This means Russia producing all the technology ,food ,entertainment that it needs. But until Russia develops an industrial revolution ,to literary replace every product produced in the west with similar or better quality ..then they will still need to depend on trading with the west. Because i don't think the European Union will make business with Russia ,if had to do it outside their banking system ,the americans who control Europe will not allow it. So Russia is being forced to have open doors with the western financial system ,without totally giving up its nation sovereignty and its political independence.

    Russia now is politically independent from the west. and military independent too. they can produce 100% of all the weapons they need for its nation defense. ,still they are not Business
    independent , and this is the only reason why they have the banking system they have. one that is compatible with the west at the minimum .neither have a strong Business like the west.. ie.. Fast foods ,Clothing , entertainment and technology for home or office. . And i don't think Russia needs to be so extreme to only have Russian fast foods and clothing. People will like at times to taste how is western produced things. Again , it cannot be possible that Putin effectively oppose Obama ,US Congress and US senate if the Russian central bank was puppet of the American Federal Reserve and under their control . Not possible. US will not be lowering the oil prices to damage Russia economy ,but also theirs.. all they had to do is simply turn off Russian bank. Germany like all Europe in the other hand is a colony of USA ,with limited sovereignty . All germany Gold is deposited in American banks. So thats is a huge problem that germans will need to fix ,to get its independence. becoming strong allies with Russia is the only way Europe can restore world order and create a new fair world based on international laws and fair economic system.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #6

    Post  Austin on Sat Jan 23, 2016 9:02 am

    kvs wrote:
    Austin wrote:Just wondering why Saudi rial is not getting impacted by Oil Fall

    http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/SARUSD:CUR

    The rial is not a freely floating currency like the ruble.  It is propped up by the Saudi Central Bank.

    The CBR does not make any interventions to prop up the ruble.  I have seen people still thinking it is doing this.

    Even if Saudi Central Bank is propping up rial it is not showing up in their Forex dropping drastically and Rial is stable.

    I think what is happening with Rouble is as soon as Oil Prices drop , Speculator keeps attacking it weakning the rouble , Perhaps engineered from outside or market forces working there. Hence the drop in Rouble is much more drastic like ~ 40 % for drop in oil price.

    I saw when Oil Reached 27 even for minor fall in prices in .xx range Rouble was falling more not sure why , Likely Speculators

    sepheronx
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #6

    Post  sepheronx on Sat Jan 23, 2016 9:06 am

    Austin wrote:
    kvs wrote:
    Austin wrote:Just wondering why Saudi rial is not getting impacted by Oil Fall

    http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/SARUSD:CUR

    The rial is not a freely floating currency like the ruble.  It is propped up by the Saudi Central Bank.

    The CBR does not make any interventions to prop up the ruble.  I have seen people still thinking it is doing this.

    Even if Saudi Central Bank is propping up rial it is not showing up in their Forex dropping drastically and Rial is stable.

    I think what is happening with Rouble is as soon as Oil Prices drop , Speculator keeps attacking it weakning the rouble , Perhaps engineered from outside or market forces working there. Hence the drop in Rouble is much more drastic like ~ 40 % for drop in oil price.

    I saw when Oil Reached 27 even for minor fall in prices in .xx range Rouble was falling more not sure why , Likely Speculators

    I was reading how Saudi Arabia is offering over $1T in bonds. I imagine they are getting propped up. For a country like Saudi Arabia, they need it. As well, they have a massive deficit which they never had before (or long time).

    Austin
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #6

    Post  Austin on Sat Jan 23, 2016 9:17 am

    Central Bank Recipe for Growth

    Risky budget policy hampers Central Bank to keep inflation under control — official


    http://tass.ru/en/economy/851488


    MOSCOW, January 22. /TASS/. It will be difficult for the Central Bank to keep inflation under control if the government conducts a risky budgetary policy, the bank’s head Elvira Nabiullina said at the expanded board of the Ministry of Finance.

    "Monetary policy and fiscal policy are interrelated. If there is an unbalanced budget and the uncontrolled growth of public expenditure, it will cause the growth of long-term interest rates and inflation expectations. In these circumstances, it will be harder for the Central Bank to keep inflation under control," - she said

    According to Nabiullina, the low level of budget deficit, inflation and of its national debt should serve as a base for development of the country's economy.

    "Structural measures should not harm but should be based on macroeconomic stability as the current situation presents a general challenge for budget and monetary policy. This challenge is to retain macroeconomic stability amid sharply worsening situation on commodity markets," she said, adding that macroeconomic stability means "low deficit, low debt and low inflation," - she said.

    Nabiullina also dwelled upon dynamics of oil prices saying oil price rebounds are possible though one should not expect highs of earlier days. "The situation on the oil market is the key factor for our economy, and here [Finance Minister] Anton Germanovich [Siluanov] is right, oil price rebounds are possible though one should not expect them [oil prices] to return to the highs of last years," she said. She also pointed out that the dependence of the Russian economy and the ruble’s exchange rate on oil prices is declining.

    "The dependence of the economy and the ruble’s exchange rate on oil is declining. But of course we need structural efforts to diversify economy so that the dependence on oil prices will be going down in the future as well," she said.
    More:
    http://tass.ru/en/economy/851488

    sepheronx
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #6

    Post  sepheronx on Sat Jan 23, 2016 9:25 am

    blah blah blah, diversify, blah blah blah.

    In other words, no idea.  Gee, it is kind of sad that other groups can obtain actual data that comes from even Rosstat that proves these others wrong.  Jesus.....

    Holy hell, I am pretty much certain they are just making stuff up and using excuses for no idea what to do.  I imagine if Russia's budget had $0 from oil and gas, they would still state the same thing. But, now it is what? less than 13% of GDP. Oooh wow. OK, so what is their excuse now? CBR is along sides with German Gref, whom was told that he was pretty much retarded when he claimed the oil prices was due to China's alternative energy.....

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #6

    Post  Austin on Sat Jan 23, 2016 10:28 am

    She is right no point blaming her , even government agrees they need to do structural reforms now more than ever.

    Dont Kill the Messenger

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #6

    Post  Austin on Sat Jan 23, 2016 10:29 am

    http://tass.ru/ekonomika/2606771

    The low level of budget deficit, public debt and inflation must be the basis for the development of the Russian Federation, said Nabiullina.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #6

    Post  kvs on Sat Jan 23, 2016 2:20 pm

    sepheronx wrote:blah blah blah, diversify, blah blah blah.

    In other words, no idea.  Gee, it is kind of sad that other groups can obtain actual data that comes from even Rosstat that proves these others wrong.  Jesus.....

    Holy hell, I am pretty much certain they are just making stuff up and using excuses for no idea what to do.  I imagine if Russia's budget had $0 from oil and gas, they would still state the same thing.  But, now it is what? less than 13% of GDP.  Oooh wow.  OK, so what is their excuse now?  CBR is along sides with German Gref, whom was told that he was pretty much retarded when he claimed the oil prices was due to China's alternative energy.....

    I guess Nabiullina never looked at the finances of NATO members. She is spouting off monetarist dogma.

    Someone speculated on another board that Russia is actually manipulating the ruble exchange itself. I agree. The large drops are
    just way too convenient since they cancel out the oil price drop (i.e. Russian oil producers get basically the same number of rubles per barrel
    regardless of the dollar price of oil). This manipulation is associated with the large foreign debt paydowns. Russian companies are selling
    rubles to buy dollars and this puts pressure on the ruble exchange rate. But western idiots are happy for the ruble to "lose value" (Laughing)
    and this plays into Russia's hands.

    The thing to watch is how much inflation there is from the latest forex change. A 13% inflation for 2015 was a small price to pay for
    import substitution and maintenance of oil industry revenues. I think there will be much less inflation in 2016.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #6

    Post  kvs on Sat Jan 23, 2016 2:21 pm

    Austin wrote:http://tass.ru/ekonomika/2606771

    The low level of budget deficit, public debt and inflation must be the basis for the development of the Russian Federation, said Nabiullina.

    Obviously she is not living on planet Earth. None of the OECD (which includes all NATO members) conforms to this dogma.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #6

    Post  A Different Voice on Sat Jan 23, 2016 7:05 pm

    kvs wrote:
    Austin wrote:http://tass.ru/ekonomika/2606771

    The low level of budget deficit, public debt and inflation must be the basis for the development of the Russian Federation, said Nabiullina.

    Obviously she is not living on planet Earth.   None of the OECD (which includes all NATO members) conforms to this dogma.

    Everyone on here disagrees with Kudrin and Nabiullina about certain issues related to Russia's budget and economy. Here, everyone knows how to run things better. They Nabiullina and others is are idiots, incompetent, or a traitors, etc.  They think deficits and a crashing ruble will have only positive effects on Russia.

    I have a different view. Nabiullina and others in the Russian government have done a good (but not perfect) job at dealing with a difficult economic period for Russia. She does not deserve criticism for her actions and for statements like the one above.

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