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    Russian Economy General News: #6

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    flamming_python
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    Russian Economy General News: #6

    Post  flamming_python on Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:00 am

    kvs wrote:
    Karl Haushofer wrote:
    medo wrote:
    This is exactly what I said for some time ago. Russia will become extremely powerful concurent for the West in the international market. They produce their products now with the same high quality as the west with similarly economically and ecologically effective industry, but Russia not only have cheaper currency, but also far lower taxes and debts to pay. EU have large debts and they simply could not lower the taxes, actually they are increasing taxes, that they could pay interests for public debts and to pay public sector.

    There are a few reasons why the GDP/capita in Russia is lower than in the West. One of them is that the Russian economy and industries are not as well developed and efficient than their Western counterparts. So I think the highlighted part of your post is not correct. Russia is not yet on par with the West in this regard.

    You have no clue what you are talking about.   Your so called efficiency is nothing of the sort.   This bogus metric is obtained by dividing
    the GDP by the active population and called "efficiency".   Total, ludicrous nonsense.   Efficiency is related to, you know, actual production.  
    So you cannot use the whole GDP which includes the fluff called the "financial industry" and all of the extra territorial economic revenue
    you generate thanks to transnationals.   You have to use the fraction of the GDP related to domestic production.   Manufacturing in
    the USA is less than 20% of GDP.   So start by comparing apples to apples.

    I will give you a counter example that utterly destroys this NATO propaganda BS.   Russia can produce six Project 636.3 submarines
    for $2 billion dollars.   One Japanese Soryu class sub which is no better and in the same category of diesel-electrics goes for $2 billion.   Clearly
    Russia is way more efficient at producing this high tech product and the exchange rate of the ruble to the dollar simply cannot explain
    a factor of six difference in the price.  


    Haushofer has nothing but valid points.

    You bring up the Defence Industry, which is an industry in which Russia is for the most part, cutting-edge and in fact more competitive than any Western country in, especially with the current rouble devaluation.

    And you know what, if all Russian industries were like Russia's military one - then Russia might well be one of the most developed, richest countries in the world. But they're not, and it's not.

    Let's go over some of them:

    1). Textiles/Garments/Leather - neither Europe's quality, nor Asia's cheapness; Russia is still trying to find itself here, and it better do so soon as this industrial sector has been slowly dying for the last 20 years. It has some successes, there are definitely a few successful brands and factories here (Lutch, Slavyanka, etc...); but hardly any with any substantial export orders or international recognition - maybe only Bosch. The rest are held back by quality issues, lack of evolution from Soviet-era industrial practises, or lackluster branding and P&R efforts. There is definitely quality to be seen here though, some of the military and camo outfits are good examples.
    This sector employs a fair amount of people in Russia, particularly in the Volga and Central provinces, but pay is generally low, facilities often look run-down, the firms are often stuck in the past - it's a big industrial sector where Russia is nowhere close to European standards. Europe's firms in this sector by comparison are far more lean, modern, dynamic and export-orientated.

    2). Handicrafts/Masterworks (samovars, wooden carvings, laces, traditional headscarves, pottery, paintings, miniatures, religious icons, tableware, musical instruments, traditional knives, etc..). Russia actually does good here, some real high-quality stuff done by old masters and specialists, knowledge passed on via apprenticeships and family businesses in villages where such crafts have been practiced for centuries.
    Problem is - in comparison to Europe's equivalent businesses; Russia hasn't secured much export interest here. This stuff stays in Russia, and this limits expansion and demand. A shame, because there are some real treasures here.

    3). Watchmaking, was a huge industry in the Soviet Union, which manufactured millions of watches every year, mostly for export. Several huge factories (2 in Moscow, 1 in St. Petersburg, 1 in Uglich, 1 in Penza, 1 in Chelyabinsk, 1 in Chistopol, others too).
    Now? Shadow of its former self; a couple of the surviving factories have massively downsized and are still barely profitable, or were until recently - the one in Chelyabinsk has been downsizing for 20 years and only in the past 2 years has started talking about expansion. Other factories collapsed, and their machinery and premises was divided up among small splinter-firms, that get by using old stocks of Soviet-era mechanism or new ones from China to build some dubious quality-watches.
    There are a couple masters in this field too, such as Konstantin Chaykin, that has his own very successful firm making his own ultra-luxury watches of extremely high quality using his own custom-built mechanisms.
    However, other than the ultra-luxury sector, there are really only 2-3 or so Russian companies able to compete with Swiss or Japanese watch firms here. One of them is the Petrodvorets Watch Factory, which all but collapsed in the 90s and was all but a ruin until it was revived and turned around completely by a French investor a few years ago. Now it's a very, modern dynamic firm with great prospects and able to compete with some of the lower-end Swiss segment.
    In comparison with Europe, this Russian sector still secures many export orders, however the quality is generally worse, and many companies are still struggling. There are some world-famous Russian brands; but mostly they are just reflecting their Soviet-era past and glory; of the new wave we haven't seen a real breakthrough yet. IMO though, it's only a matter of time before Russian watches make a come-back and rejoin the world's leading nations.

    4). Metallurgy, Russia is pretty much as competitive here as the Europeans or anyone else; which is why Russian metallurgical products are exported around the world and integrated into the global economy. By and large, no problems here.

    5). Power generation and machinery, if we talk about nuclear power - Russia probably has the most competitive industry in the world, it's already taken over 37% of the world market for NPP construction (and rising).
    If we're talking about other types of power plants, Russia builds mostly for itself, with the exception of occasional hydroelectric dam contracts. Once again, this limits profitability and expansion; I'm pretty sure US, German and Japanese firms have more export orders than Russia's ones that build thermal, hydroelectric, solar, wind power units and associated equipment.
    2 bright points though. Firstly, Russia has many borders with many countries, and a unified electricity network - which allows it to efficiently export electricity to a large amount of neighbours and it makes a brisk trade from doing so - this is something Europe can't do as well.
    Secondly, Russia does a roaring trade selling power turbines and other specific equipment, it definitely has some very competitive companies in this field.
    Overall it's a mix, but if we factor in nuclear power - Russia definitely has the edge on Europe and everyone else; because it's nuclear export success is so phenomenal. But on everything else; it can stand to improve.

    6). Infrastructural development. Russia has infrastructural companies that can develop roads/railways/airports/cosmodromes/ports/highways/etc... problem is, even in their own home market - they regularly lose tenders to European/Turkish/Chinese firms, and them securing export orders is almost unheard of. Perhaps with the exception of Russian Railways - but even they've had a pretty small amount of export success considering the amount of high-level government support, funds and resources that they enjoy.
    So yeah, Russia is losing out to Europe here for sure. Hopefully all the new contracts in Russian infrastructure might give them a jump-start.

    7). Construction. Much the same as with infrastructure development, only there are more local Russian companies doing it; but still a lack of presence on outside markets. They are competitive only in Russia itself. Don't see any sign of improvement on the horizon.

    Cool. Alcohol; huge amount of companies of varying qualities, but almost all of them are geared towards Russian and CIS markets. Compare this to European alcohol corporations, particularly beer producers, and how they've expanded and spread all around the world, their brand recognition, etc...
    Even though Russia is basically competitive here, it's success has been limited.
    Of course, there are success stories, successful Russian vodka exporters, other high-quality spirits, Baltica brewery (albeit its now owned by Europeans too), etc... but generally, less than there should be. And I don't see much progress on this front.

    9). Agriculture, still a huge amount of old Soviet-style collective farms, if not in organization than certainly in methods and equipment, where things are being done as they were 25 years ago. A lot of the land being cultivated, is not cultivated as efficiently as land in Europe is. Agriculture in Russia tends to be more weather dependent than in Europe, there is a greater risk of bad harvests. Infrastructure for storage, transportation and export of grain and cereals is not as developed as in Europe, this leads to higher losses.
    This sector has much improved over the last 10 years mind you, and is growing quickly. We were all until recently, eating dairy products from the Baltic states, now we are eating our own; and not only dairy, but grains, meat, fruit & vegetables - it's all rapidly rising in Russia. The government programs, for loans, new equipment, land grants, etc... are all doing their part too. But the infrastructural challenges remain, even with the government focusing on that too.
    The greater abundance and lower cost of land should ensure that Russian agriculture will soon become more competitive than its European competitors, which are right now going through a crisis - however we are not there just yet.

    10). Financial sector. Well what Russia has here, is basically pretty good. Moscow City, the St. Petersburg stock exchange and so on. The trouble is that what it has is rather small relative to Russia's size and economy, while the Financial Sector is extremely profitable so having a bigger financial sector would really pay off. Countries with a bigger financial sector automatically have quite a boost to their GDP. Per capita, I think almost all European countries have a bigger Financial sector than Russia has.

    11). Small and Medium sized Businesses. Again, what Russia has here is not that bad. And again, relative to the Russian economy's total size - this sector is not particularly large. Which is a shame, as again, in developed countries, it tends to account for a huge amount of the GDP. Russia has problems here with excessively high-interest loans, a perception of bureaucratic hurdles and instability (in actual fact its improved significantly, but the perception remains), lower faith in the legal system to secure business rights than it perhaps deserves, and so on.

    12). Chemical and Petrochemical production; everything is more or less good here, can't knock it, some of these facilities are the largest or most modern in the world; again this is another sector where Russia is quite competitive, and it shows because its products here are used all around the world.

    13). Space services and industry. If it weren't for the fact that Russia has a monopoly on parts of this industry, there really wouldn't be anything that special about many of Russia's companies here. Yes it has a lot of contracts, a lot of partnerships, and a lot of money is being made; but much has been lost too - due to negligence, low quality standards, sub-standard parts, etc...
    I suppose this is a sector where Russia wins on default as Europe barely has a space sector, but really, Russia needs to keep reforming it and shaking it up; the Europeans and Americans are moving forth with their own plans and Russia will have to work hard to maintain its market-share in the coming decades.

    I could go on and on for hours more, challenges, problems and unfulfilled promises in food processing, tourism, automobile industry, hydrocarbon extraction services, retail, logistics, machinery-tool production, shipbuilding, etc... but I think that you guys get the picture.
    Far from a rosy picture, actually.
    A mix of the competitive, the non-competitive, and the somewhere in the middle - not that great yet but with a lot of potential.
    That's the Russian economy in a nutshell. As you can see, there is plenty of work to be done, and plenty of objective reason, why Russia is poorer than Germany, Japan, France, the US, Canada, Great Britain, Sweden, South Korea, Australia, etc...
    Yes, some of it is just spreadsheet magic, financial and currency focus-pocus and whatnot, but most of it is grounded in reality on the ground - Russia has to catch-up and just the fact that its nuclear sector, defence industry, etc... happen to be doing well is not enough.

    So please, no more ridiculous chest-beating Russia-***** BS.

    kvs
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #6

    Post  kvs on Fri Aug 28, 2015 3:53 am

    flamming_python wrote:
    Haushofer has nothing but valid points.

    You bring up the Defence Industry, which is an industry in which Russia is for the most part, cutting-edge and in fact more competitive than any Western country in, especially with the current rouble devaluation.



    So please, no more ridiculous chest-beating Russia-***** BS.

    You are the one BSing. It is obvious the trollish comments on Russia's backward industry are rubbish and your long post
    does not justify any of them. Who the f*ck cares about leather. And consumer goods are made in China for every
    developed country. If the USA is not making consumer trash at home and letting China do it, then why should Russia
    be evaluated on the basis of its domestic consumer industry? All I see is ridiculous apples and oranges where you see
    some "valid points". Canada does not make any TVs and computer parts but I don't see any finger wagging about how
    underdeveloped it is. If consumer trash imports are good for Canada, the USA and the whole of the EU, then they are
    good enough for Russia.

    The insinuation by these two pseudo-trolls, whom you defend with full vigour, is that Russia does not have the capacity
    to advance and that its current development trajectory is lacking. On what basis do these two clowns make this assertion?
    On their worthless gut feelings conditioned by decades of brain rotting NATO propaganda (and don't even try to lecture me
    that there is no NATO propaganda of the sort I am referring to, it is the daily bread and butter of the NATO MSM from Poland
    to Canada to Japan)? I see many Russian startups going far and fast. But somehow that is discounted with a broad brush
    invoking consumer junk production that NATO does not even generate itself.

    flamming_python
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #6

    Post  flamming_python on Fri Aug 28, 2015 9:24 am

    kvs wrote:
    flamming_python wrote:
    Haushofer has nothing but valid points.

    You bring up the Defence Industry, which is an industry in which Russia is for the most part, cutting-edge and in fact more competitive than any Western country in, especially with the current rouble devaluation.



    So please, no more ridiculous chest-beating Russia-***** BS.

    You are the one BSing.   It is obvious the trollish comments on Russia's backward industry are rubbish and your long post
    does not justify any of them.   Who the f*ck cares about leather.   And consumer goods are made in China for every
    developed country.   If the USA is not making consumer trash at home and letting China do it, then why should Russia
    be evaluated on the basis of its domestic consumer industry?   All I see is ridiculous apples and oranges where you see
    some "valid points".   Canada does not make any TVs and computer parts but I don't see any finger wagging about how
    underdeveloped it is.   If consumer trash imports are good for Canada, the USA and the whole of the EU, then they are
    good enough for Russia.

    The insinuation by these two pseudo-trolls, whom you defend with full vigour, is that Russia does not have the capacity
    to advance and that its current development trajectory is lacking.   On what basis do these two clowns make this assertion?
    On their worthless gut feelings conditioned by decades of brain rotting NATO propaganda (and don't even try to lecture me
    that there is no NATO propaganda of the sort I am referring to, it is the daily bread and butter of the NATO MSM from Poland
    to Canada to Japan)?   I see many Russian startups going far and fast.   But somehow that is discounted with a broad brush
    invoking consumer junk production that NATO does not even generate itself.    

    Who the f*ck cares about leather? Well maybe you should, because you care about the Russian economy so much, and there are millions of Russians employed in light industries such as that, and many other industries, a lot of which but not all are sub-optimal when compared to their competitors.

    As for the USA not making consumer trash and Russia being evaluated on the basis of its domestic consumer industry - well the whole point is that the US doesn't make consumer trash, it lets China do - instead its citizens, on average, are employed in other sectors; more profitable ones.
    If the US had a huge consumer trash making industry, it would probably be uncompetitive, and would be a problem for the US and would give it a smaller overall economy than the one it has now. But the US doesn't have any uncompetitive industrial sectors as such.

    Russia should be evaluated on its domestic consumer industry because again, it has its citizens employed in it and its a part of its economy.
    Even if Russia has a super duper ultra-modern defence industry (and actually, there are still some problems even there too), it's overall economy is nothing but the average across all its sectors and the people employed in them - so textiles, agriculture and the financial sector figure in no less to how the Russian economy should be evaluated compared to its European peers.

    If Canada doesn't make TVs, good for them. If it did make them, then it would have better made sure that they are good ones that would be exported around the world. But instead it doesn't bother, and thus has its people freed up to make things that they are good at making and that are popular in other countries - such as snowmobiles.
    Russia BTW does produce TVs; but again, only for the domestic market and at best some of the CIS one. If they as good as say Japanese or South Korean models, I think they would have conquered some world market share by now.
    Not that I'm saying Russia should give up on it or anything. Far from it. It's just not there yet, that's my point.

    I didn't see any insinuation that Russia is incapable of advancing, would you please kindly point it out to me?
    Yeah, Russian startups going far and fast - but for the umpteenth bloody time - how much of the Russian economy overall do those startups account for? And how much do all the problem areas and more that I've been mentioning account for?

    Your anger at me is ridiculous. Don't be angry at me because my demonstrated knowledge and analysis has surpassed your own and I've proven you wrong on a forum. Accept defeat gracefully.

    bmtppk
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #6

    Post  bmtppk on Fri Aug 28, 2015 10:00 am

    here is what russia ''produces'' if you

    Remove oil, gas and raw materials, that the leaders shamelessly steal from the people.

    145 million Russians produce and export less than Greater Toronto, population 4.5 million

    max steel
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #6

    Post  max steel on Fri Aug 28, 2015 11:36 am

    flamming_python wrote:
    kvs wrote:
    flamming_python wrote:
    Haushofer has nothing but valid points.

    You bring up the Defence Industry, which is an industry in which Russia is for the most part, cutting-edge and in fact more competitive than any Western country in, especially with the current rouble devaluation.



    So please, no more ridiculous chest-beating Russia-***** BS.

    You are the one BSing.   It is obvious the trollish comments on Russia's backward industry are rubbish and your long post
    does not justify any of them.   Who the f*ck cares about leather.   And consumer goods are made in China for every
    developed country.   If the USA is not making consumer trash at home and letting China do it, then why should Russia
    be evaluated on the basis of its domestic consumer industry?   All I see is ridiculous apples and oranges where you see
    some "valid points".   Canada does not make any TVs and computer parts but I don't see any finger wagging about how
    underdeveloped it is.   If consumer trash imports are good for Canada, the USA and the whole of the EU, then they are
    good enough for Russia.

    The insinuation by these two pseudo-trolls, whom you defend with full vigour, is that Russia does not have the capacity
    to advance and that its current development trajectory is lacking.   On what basis do these two clowns make this assertion?
    On their worthless gut feelings conditioned by decades of brain rotting NATO propaganda (and don't even try to lecture me
    that there is no NATO propaganda of the sort I am referring to, it is the daily bread and butter of the NATO MSM from Poland
    to Canada to Japan)?   I see many Russian startups going far and fast.   But somehow that is discounted with a broad brush
    invoking consumer junk production that NATO does not even generate itself.    

    Who the f*ck cares about leather? Well maybe you should, because you care about the Russian economy so much, and there are millions of Russians employed in light industries such as that, and many other industries, a lot of which but not all are sub-optimal when compared to their competitors.

    As for the USA not making consumer trash and Russia being evaluated on the basis of its domestic consumer industry - well the whole point is that the US doesn't make consumer trash, it lets China do - instead its citizens, on average, are employed in other sectors; more profitable ones.
    If the US had a huge consumer trash making industry, it would probably be uncompetitive, and would be a problem for the US and would give it a smaller overall economy than the one it has now. But the US doesn't have any uncompetitive industrial sectors as such.

    Russia should be evaluated on its domestic consumer industry because again, it has its citizens employed in it and its a part of its economy.
    Even if Russia has a super duper ultra-modern defence industry (and actually, there are still some problems even there too), it's overall economy is nothing but the average across all its sectors and the people employed in them - so textiles, agriculture and the financial sector figure in no less to how the Russian economy should be evaluated compared to its European peers.

    If Canada doesn't make TVs, good for them. If it did make them, then it would have better made sure that they are good ones that would be exported around the world. But instead it doesn't bother, and thus has its people freed up to make things that they are good at making and that are popular in other countries - such as snowmobiles.
    Russia BTW does produce TVs; but again, only for the domestic market and at best some of the CIS one. If they as good as say Japanese or South Korean models, I think they would have conquered some world market share by now.
    Not that I'm saying Russia should give up on it or anything. Far from it. It's just not there yet, that's my point.

    I didn't see any insinuation that Russia is incapable of advancing, would you please kindly point it out to me?
    Yeah, Russian startups going far and fast - but for the umpteenth bloody time - how much of the Russian economy overall do those startups account for? And how much do all the problem areas and more that I've been mentioning account for?

    Your anger at me is ridiculous. Don't be angry at me because my demonstrated knowledge and analysis has surpassed your own and I've proven you wrong on a forum. Accept defeat gracefully.


    " Americans are employed in other sectors more profitable ones. Lol " I dnt knw about Russia but your ignorance on american labour and jobs is laughable.They have lost their Industralized base.


    Bmtpkk troll somewhere else .

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #6

    Post  Prince Darling on Fri Aug 28, 2015 11:48 am

    would paste the structure of russian export, but i am afraid some pompous asshole will accuse me of being an eurocentric evil germanic wannabe conqueror lol

    please update your 19. century thinking and rethoric.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #6

    Post  higurashihougi on Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:30 pm

    Prince Darling wrote:would paste the structure of russian export, but i am afraid some pompous asshole will accuse me of being an eurocentric evil germanic wannabe conqueror lol

    please update your 19. century thinking and rethoric.

    Actually we don't see much Russian goods in the market, but we can see a considerable amount of Russian parts inside Western goods.

    That is the pattern of Russian export. They export high-tech products (titanium products, machines parts, chemicals, zircon core for nuclear reactors...) to foreign companies, rather than export Russian branded goods to foreign market.

    Legacy of the USSR planned economy, I believe.

    Imports into Russian probably are luxuries and products exchanged inside a cooperation (for example Russian sell titanium parts to Boeing and buy a whole Boeing airplanes, dunno how to express it in English).

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #6

    Post  KomissarBojanchev on Fri Aug 28, 2015 2:18 pm

    I'm really pissed that Russia lost the household appliance market. Here in Bulgaria soviet tools, washing machines, ovens, etc. are renowned and loved for their quality with many of them still running, while the german shit breaks usually after 1-2 years. Rusia has massive potential in this sector to make devices made to last instead of breaking to force you to buy a new one. If mediocre economy croatia(or was it slovenia?) can have gorenje sell worldwide why can't a company in russia do that especially with that massive industrial base?

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #6

    Post  sepheronx on Fri Aug 28, 2015 2:44 pm

    bmtppk wrote:here is what russia ''produces'' if you

    Remove oil, gas and raw materials, that the leaders shamelessly steal from the people.

    145 million Russians produce and export less than Greater Toronto, population 4.5 million

    Got a link for that? Toronto doesn't have manufacturing you dolt. It is other locations like Windsor Ontario, which BTW, is losing jobs left right and center.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #6

    Post  PapaDragon on Fri Aug 28, 2015 3:06 pm

    bmtppk wrote:here is what russia ''produces'' if you

    Remove oil, gas and raw materials, that the leaders shamelessly steal from the people.

    145 million Russians produce and export less than Greater Toronto, population 4.5 million

    bmtpkk is inbred degenerate retard

    See, it has to be true because it is in bolded leters. Razz

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #6

    Post  par far on Fri Aug 28, 2015 4:05 pm

    Karl Haushofer wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:Have you? Care to share your perosnal photos?

    I keep hearing the claims, but not seen the evidence.
    I don't have any personal photos to offer, but the infrastructure does get a lot poorer when you go to Russia.

    For example Kuusamo (a small city in northern Finland) is a modern and well developed Finnish town. You can nowadays cross to Russia from Kuusamo. You should see how these small villages and towns  look like in East Karelia (or Viena Karelia as it is called in Finland) in Russia. It looks probably the same that Kuusamo looked in the 1940's and 1950's. There is no running water in these villages. You see cows, hen and chicken wandering on the dirt roads at summers.

    They look like this:



    I realize that this is not how all of Russia looks like, but there are no underdeveloped places like this in Finland at all. Even the most remote villages have the basic services (even internet connections).

    Very country with a large population and large land mass is going to have some underdeveloped areas, this is Detriot, USA and Detriot is a Major city:


    http://clickcited.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/detroit-slums.jpg

    http://ghettoamerica.blogspot.ca/


    The way west media works is that they ignore and hide all the bad parts of their own and show otehrs.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #6

    Post  zg18 on Fri Aug 28, 2015 4:40 pm

    Russian Oil Firms Increase Profits and Output On Weak Ruble

    In ruble terms, the state-controlled Bashneft's production costs were 281 rubles per barrel in the second quarter, slightly up from 264 rubles a year ago, the firm said in a presentation on its website. In dollar terms, costs were down to $5.3 from $7.5.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #6

    Post  medo on Fri Aug 28, 2015 5:06 pm

    KomissarBojanchev wrote:I'm really pissed that Russia lost the household appliance market. Here in Bulgaria soviet tools, washing machines, ovens, etc. are renowned and loved for their quality with many of them still running, while the german shit breaks usually after 1-2 years. Rusia has massive potential in this sector to make devices made to last instead of breaking to force you to buy a new one. If mediocre economy croatia(or was it slovenia?) can have gorenje sell worldwide why can't a company in russia do that especially with that massive industrial base?

    Gorenje is from Slovenia and it made its name as well as Iskra in times of Yugoslavia. But now only few Gorenje products are produced in Slovenia, because majority is produced in China.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #6

    Post  flamming_python on Fri Aug 28, 2015 7:39 pm

    bmtppk wrote:here is what russia ''produces'' if you

    Remove oil, gas and raw materials, that the leaders shamelessly steal from the people.

    145 million Russians produce and export less than Greater Toronto, population 4.5 million

    GTFOutta here, how about some sources for this BS?

    Gonna be fun picking it apart.

    Pretty sure Moscow alone produces and exports more than Greater Toronto.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #6

    Post  par far on Fri Aug 28, 2015 10:16 pm

    What is happening with the Chinese economy? The west propaganda machine is acting like the Chinese economy is about to collapse. They did the same thing with Russia.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #6

    Post  Ivan the Colorado on Fri Aug 28, 2015 10:27 pm

    par far wrote:What is happening with the Chinese economy? The west propaganda machine is acting like the Chinese economy is about to collapse. They did the same thing with Russia.
    No one knows for sure. Some speculating simple market correction, while some speculating full collapse imminent.

    Whatever the case maybe, the path that China is currently on is not financially viable. Here is a good documentary, please watch it if you have time (hour long).

    Project Canada
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #6

    Post  Project Canada on Fri Aug 28, 2015 10:32 pm

    Ivan the Colorado wrote:
    par far wrote:What is happening with the Chinese economy? The west propaganda machine is acting like the Chinese economy is about to collapse. They did the same thing with Russia.
    No one knows for sure. Some speculating simple market correction, while some speculating full collapse imminent.

    Whatever the case maybe, the path that China is currently on is not financially viable. Here is a good documentary, please watch it if you have time (hour long).

    youtube is saying the video contains content from BBC and is blocked in this country, do you have other links?

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #6

    Post  Ivan the Colorado on Fri Aug 28, 2015 10:37 pm

    Project Canada wrote:
    Ivan the Colorado wrote:
    par far wrote:What is happening with the Chinese economy? The west propaganda machine is acting like the Chinese economy is about to collapse. They did the same thing with Russia.
    No one knows for sure. Some speculating simple market correction, while some speculating full collapse imminent.

    Whatever the case maybe, the path that China is currently on is not financially viable. Here is a good documentary, please watch it if you have time (hour long).

    youtube is saying the video contains content from BBC and is blocked in this country, do you have other links?
    Try these...




    (might not be BBC)

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #6

    Post  kvs on Fri Aug 28, 2015 11:21 pm

    Ivan the Colorado wrote:
    par far wrote:What is happening with the Chinese economy? The west propaganda machine is acting like the Chinese economy is about to collapse. They did the same thing with Russia.
    No one knows for sure. Some speculating simple market correction, while some speculating full collapse imminent.

    There can only be a market correction + recession.   Talk of collapse is inane.   The internal demand in China is huge and it will
    not disappear just because some stocks lost their value.    People love to attribute the Great Depression in the US to the
    1929 stock market failure but that is simply not true.   That stock market collapse was way worse than anything currently
    happening in China and even then it was by no means a causal factor for the Depression.   At the same time China is
    on a strong development trajectory that the USA was not during the 1920s.   The Chinese domestic consumer demand
    is not tapped out.   Even if they overbuild "ghost cities" the real estate demand is still there and huge.   And that is
    another difference from the USA during the 1920s and during 2007.

    The western media can't help itself engaging in projection and smear.   Sober analysis is lacking and you have vapid pundits
    chirping about tropes and repeating propaganda narratives instead.    China was way overdue for a large market correction.
    Capitalism is cyclical and there has not been a real recession in China since basically the moment Deng Xiaoping started down
    the path of economic reform.   China has problems, sure, but they are not as bad as Ukraine's problems and have not heard
    a single squeak from the NATO MSM about Ukraine's looming collapse.  In fact I heard about Ukraine's GDP contracting by
    just 2% during 2015 from Moody's.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #6

    Post  max steel on Fri Aug 28, 2015 11:52 pm

    lol!  What you are calling a Chinese Economy meltdown is all rubbish. It's an overdue correction. It is exceedingly rare to find an even remotely sane piece on the Chinese economy in the Western press - like for Russia, the upside is it allows those of us with a penchant for trading to profit from the credulity of our fellow man.

    Let me explain you in detail what happened .


    Any stock market is driven by herd mentality and kept afloat by confidence. The system is inherently a closed-feedback loop.

    What we are seeing in China right now is a loss of confidence (that the prices might still go up or stabilize or at least will stop falling) so people want to sell, and that causes the price to fall further: this is the herd stampeding to gtfo as fast as they can. What the Chinese government is trying to do is restore confidence, and slowly bleed out the pressure from the markets to prevent a catastrophic explosion.

    China has been experiencing impressive growth since 1978 and famously accelerated to double digits in the 2000s. Impressive to the rest of the world, but to the Chinese, they cannot grow fast enough! China was and still is behind the West in many ways, and needs to grow faster. But the economists are not crazy: they are aware of the boundaries of insanity and all people knew the growth rate was not sustainable. What has and is always going to be debated is: what is the error rate or the tolerance?


    Imagine you're on a train. A train that will take you far away. You know where you hope this train will take you, but you don't know for sure.

    The question has always been: when should I get off the train?


    Friday, May 15, 2015 — the central government has consistently been hinting that the "new normal" has dawned in China. The chief concern was how to slow down the train that is the stock market so people can disembark without dying. But even China is bounded by the laws of the universe.

    China's stock markets are also fundamentally different than Western ones, because Chinese markets are full of individual investors whereas Western markets are full of institutional investors. Unlike Americans, Chinese people do not blow their first pay cheque on fancy shit and self-indulgences — they invest it. And there are two obvious choices for people: real estate and stocks. The availability of cheap credit and lack of financial regulation means every Chinese citizen is basically jumping into the stock market, after the real estate market has been saturated. And the thing is a vast majority of these people have no fucking idea what they are doing! But discussion for this disaster is for another topic.

    This means that Chinese companies receive unprecedented capital injection, and suddenly the possibilities seem endless. For the central government, this was also a possible exit scenario to reform its zombie state-owned enterprises.

    Too much buying enthusiasm also means stocks become unprecedentedly overpriced. A market correction is due, i.e. bringing prices down to correspond to actual value. It is much harder if not impossible to control a herd of wild horses (individual investors) than a herd of semi-domesticated horses (institutional investors).

    Though China has achieved the impossible before on many other occasions, the people of China collectively is one of the mightiest forces in the universe... you cannot control a god. And this was just one of the many gods of fortune that exert force on the China stock market.

    Monday, June 29th, 2015 — the collapse was in full swing as soon as the markets opened. What was so special about this Monday?

    At that point, the Shanghai stock market have lost the value of Spain's entire stock market over a course of two weeks... and that doesn't even consider the Shenzhen or HK exchange. Investors were nervous (understatement).


    Madness, as you know, is a lot like gravity, all it takes is a little push.

    That little push came over the weekend, as the Eurozone meltdown had reached a new critical zone: Greek banks were desperately averting bank runs and their cowardly government shifts the responsibilities of decision making for their fiscal issues to the uninformed public.

    Ever since, the drama has been unfolding.
    (And no, oversensitive greecophiles out there, it is not Greece's fault.)

    The inevitable market correction is due, and everyone knows it. The issue with the Chinese market is the very heavy handed government interventions. They need to stop the train, but too quickly and there would be many casualties, but too slowly, people don't want to get off... yet. People are predictably irrational, but rationally unpredictable.

    --------------------------------------

    China stopped supporting the yuan’s tight link to the strong dollar, allowing its currency to weaken by 3% through Friday. That’s not large by foreign-exchange standards—Japan’s yen has fallen by 35% since 2012. Yet the yuan devaluation unsettled global financial markets that are worried about weak global growth and deflation pressures.

    The depreciation of the yuan follows the spectacular boom and bust in China’s stock market: The Shanghai index, up 60% year-to-date at its June 12 peak and is now up only 23%. The two shocks gave new life, probably short-lived, to decade-long predictions of a China hard landing. Some in Washington may interpret Beijing’s latest move as part of a currency war, or an indication of China’s greater ambitions—in the South China Sea, Africa, the global financial system, and toward a yuan bloc through its new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB).

    For China, however, the problem was more about the global slowdown and the strengthening dollar. Under current U.S. policies, the dollar has no reliable value—it weakened massively in the 1970s, strengthened in the 1980s and 1990s, weakened in the 2000s, and has been soaring in recent years. This instability makes the dollar an unsuitable long-term link for Beijing and its aspirations for fast economic growth.

    Since 1993 China’s leaders have been committed to providing a “strong and stable” yuan throughout the business cycle and, as a result, median income has risen rapidly. That commitment to stability is in marked contrast to the U.S. which lets markets change the value of the dollar based on their perception of economic conditions. This turns often-arbitrary currency trends into a dominant self-reinforcing part of our economic fundamentals, creating momentum-driven boom-bust cycles in the strong-dollar 1990s and the weak-dollar 2000s.

    The risks of devaluing its national currency, the yuan. Plus, Hillary Clinton’s decision to give federal authorities her private computer server and a thumb drive, and the EPAs three million gallon spill of heavy metals into a river.

    By opting out of this, China is in effect taking a big step toward currency independence. The yuan’s link to the dollar, whose value has been surging, caused the yuan to rise too high in value to meet Beijing’s goal of price stability, and its goal of fostering commerce with its other trading partners, many of which have devalued. The dollar has been rising against gold and, lately, even against the normally strong Singapore dollar and Swiss franc, so the dollar can’t be considered stable.

    China decided that a gradual delinkage from the dollar would help maintain the stability of its own currency. The International Monetary Fund immediately welcomed the new policy of flexibility, which allows the dollar to weaken or strengthen by 2% a day against the yuan. China hopes this float will prepare the yuan to become a reserve currency alongside the dollar, pound, euro and yen, which has been one of China’s highest economic priorities.

    Those who are bearish on China keep asserting that China is acting out of panic or weakness. Not so: Beijing is methodically pursuing financial liberalization while responding to the external problems of slower global growth, excessive dollar strength, and the reverberations in China from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s inexplicable policy of setting interest rates near zero six years after the recession. China’s move is another step in the gradual shift away from the dollar bloc and U.S. economic leadership that dominated Asia since World War II. China hopes to replace this with an anchor to the yuan, and China-based institutions like the AIIB.

    It remains to be seen whether Beijing’s change in currency policy will provide any near-term boost to the country’s economic slowdown. Monetary conditions in the global economy are bordering on deflation, and China’s move won’t help with that. The yuan devaluation already seems to have worsened the plunge in commodity indexes. Pressure on dollar debtors both in China and elsewhere will increase as China’s devaluation puts downward pressure on dollar prices world-wide.

    The magnitude of dollar and yuan strength is reflected in gold’s recent price break below its 10-year average. That’s the same deflation signal that preceded the disastrous Asian devaluation crisis of 1997-98, during which world dollar GDP and corporate earnings shrank as they are doing now.

    Asia is in a better position this time to withstand an open-ended strong-dollar policy because less of its private and public debt is denominated in dollars. But the world monetary system is in a worse position.

    Central banks in the U.S., Japan and Europe already have used their preferred tools, expanding balance sheets and setting interest rates near zero. Despite that (because of it, in my view), growth remains anemic and inflation in the U.S., rather than moving toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, is likely to turn negative given the latest plunge in oil and gasoline prices.

    Yet there’s no plan to change the Fed’s top-down, market-distorting misallocation of credit as the first interest-rate hike approaches. This is one factor in China’s decision to create distance between the yuan and the dollar.

    Making matters worse for global growth, the reliance on monetary policy has diverted attention from the urgent need for structural reforms in the developed countries, including Europe’s antigrowth labor, tax and spending policies, and the byzantine U.S. tax code and escalating federal regulatory chokehold.

    The result has been a huge downgrade in global GDP that adds to China’s economic slowdown. A year ago the IMF looked for a world gross domestic product of $81.6 trillion in 2015. The IMF lowered its projection to $74.6 trillion in April. It’s likely the IMF’s projection will fall below $72 trillion in its October update, to take into account China’s devaluation and the spreading recessions in many emerging markets.

    China may have loosened its tie to the unstable dollar, but this won’t suddenly stop the slide in its exports that is the result of the global slowdown. Nor can exchange-rate policy cause businesses to invest more effectively or consumers to open their pocket books.

    The urgency for China is to create a framework of effective regulations and rule of law that assures freedom and lets markets rather than the government sort out more of the mistakes—such as the wild April-May Shanghai stock-market bubble. Many parts of China’s system are too big to fail, which is a recipe for being doomed to live in interesting times.




     



    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



    In context to the bbc video . I haven't seen it but I feel it's on China's Ghost cities perhaps .


    As China’s equity markets cool down and its currency is devalued, attention will return to the question of whether the country’s property market is heading for a fall. In my view, the boom days are over, but with buyers required to put at least 30 per cent cash down, the risks of a crisis are low.
    China’s housing market is one of the most important parts of its economy, and also one of the most misunderstood. Important, because residential real estate together with construction accounts directly for more than 10 per cent of gross domestic product. Misunderstood because few observers appear to grasp the structure of China’s residential property market.

    The Communist party allowed most workers to buy their government housing at a steep discount to market value, with the result that the home ownership rate in China is now among the highest in the world: 89 per cent compared with about 64 per cent in the US and the UK. But this does not mean the appetite for new homes has been sated. A large share of homes are substandard, so demand for upgrading is significant. Moreover, only 55 per cent of the population is urban, a share that will continue to rise, driving demand for housing.

    Almost all the new homes sold in China are apartments, not single family homes. What is more, 80 per cent of those apartments are bought one year or more before construction of the building will be finished, known as presale. That is one reason it takes time for new Chinese cities to fill up.

    In Zhengzhou, for example, a city featured on many lists of “ghost cities”, people bought apartments in the city’s new area with the intention of not moving in for several years, based on the view that house prices would be higher after the subway lines were completed. The first subway line is now open, and the new area is thriving. This pattern is repeated across the country.

    One of the biggest misconceptions about China’s property market is that most buyers are speculators. In fact, the residential market is driven by owner-occupiers. Data collected from sales managers across the country reveal that during the past three years less than 10 per cent of buyers were investors.
    China’s 9 per cent average annual growth in residential property prices over the past 10 years may appear to be the hallmark of a bubble, but that was accompanied by 12 per cent average annual nominal urban income growth.

    Unprecedented income growth not only supports China’s remarkable consumption story, it also underpins a healthy property market. Over the past decade, inflation-adjusted urban income rose by 7 per cent or more every year, while real rural income increased by 7 per cent or more during each of the past nine years. In contrast, over the past decade real income rose at an average annual pace of 1 per cent in the US and 0.3 per cent in the UK.

    An important precondition for a bubble in any asset class is a high level of leverage, because in the absence of high leverage, the consequences of a sharp price decline are limited. In China there is low leverage among homebuyers because about 15 per cent of buyers over the past three years paid cash, while for those using mortgages a minimum deposit of 30 per cent is required.

    Today the market is soft, but it is far from the collapse that many are writing about. It is inevitable that China’s economy will, on average, grow a bit more slowly every year for the foreseeable future. This applies to the residential property market as well.

    New home prices are down about 6 per cent year on year, compared with an increase of about 4 per cent a year ago, but given that Chinese homebuyers are required to use a lot of cash, even steeper price declines would leave few mortgages under water.

    Fundamental demand for housing remains healthy. There are around 13m marriages every year, and new couples account for approximately one-third of new home sales. Income continues to rise at a healthy pace and household savings increased by more than 300 per cent over the past 10 years to $8.5tn, greater than the combined GDPs of Russia, Brazil, India and Italy.

    The boom days of China’s property market are over, but this more mature market is far from a disaster: Chinese are still likely to buy about 10m new urban homes this year, almost double the number of combined new and existing home sales in the US last year.




    False Alarm on a crisis in China

    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/26/opinion/false-alarm-on-a-crisis-in-china.html?_r=1

    sepheronx
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #6

    Post  sepheronx on Sat Aug 29, 2015 3:53 am

    KomissarBojanchev wrote:I'm really pissed that Russia lost the household appliance market. Here in Bulgaria soviet tools, washing machines, ovens, etc. are renowned and loved for their quality with many of them still running, while the german shit breaks usually after 1-2 years. Rusia has massive potential in this sector to make devices made to last instead of breaking to force you to buy a new one. If mediocre economy croatia(or was it slovenia?) can have gorenje sell worldwide why can't a company in russia do that especially with that massive industrial base?

    Russia wont end up turning around to such markets. It could possibly start producing them, but mostly for domestic use. Actually, majority of Russia's enterprises are domestic use only (no chance of export due to low production and lack of a market) and something like 5% or so are in the export market.

    That said, unless there ends up a demand outside for such goods, majority will end up pretty much Russian sale - Small production batches and services for only Russian clients. In the future, there could be a demand (like a demand growing for Russia's cars). The rest may end up as foreign brands manufacturing in Russia (good and bad really).

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #6

    Post  Vann7 on Sat Aug 29, 2015 8:00 am



    Karl Haushofer wrote:

    For example Kuusamo (a small city in northern Finland) is a modern and well developed Finnish town. You can nowadays cross to Russia from Kuusamo. You should see how these small villages and towns  look like in East Karelia (or Viena Karelia as it is called in Finland) in Russia. It looks probably the same that Kuusamo looked in the 1940's and 1950's. There is no running water in these villages. You see cows, hen and chicken wandering on the dirt roads at summers.

    They look like this:


    Enlarge this image Click to see fullsize



    I realize that this is not how all of Russia looks like, but there are no underdeveloped places like this in Finland at all. Even the most remote villages have the basic services (even internet connections).


    Have the above guy realize he is comparing a nation like Findland with a Continent like Russia that have near 50x times more territory than Findland.. means it needs an economy much higher than the americans ones plus 10x to be able to develop all its territory.

    Russia is 4x times bigger than main land USA.. and for the size it have they have achieve a miracle there ,the nation with more pavement roads and largest trains routes in the world.
    Show me a train in Findland or American that covers 9,000km on a decent transportation system? Guess none exist.. Russia SUbways are about the best in the world and for obvious reasons of its monumental size and its close ARtic proximity it will be impossible for Russia to fully develop more than half of its land mass ..is not economically practical ,specially because most of RUssia territory is inhabited.  But Russia do have very well developed cities that have nothing to envy Finland or any other nation in Europe.. take a look for example the dozen of major cities in Russia where half the population live and FIFA 2018 will be hosted..

    This is about ~12 cities in Russia.. but there are more developed ones.. this are just the ones
    were Russia will be hosting Football.





    here are new cities in Russia under construction..



    and show any place in Findland that match
    St Petersburg..



    or Moscow...


    here all FIFA new Sport facilities in development in Russia for 2018.



    In your dreams Findland is more developed than Russia. It have 1/50 the size of Russia , with 3% of its population Findland have 5 million people ,Russia have 140 millions.. So obviously it will be far easier for Findland to build roads across the entire country since less territory.
    But so far Russia have more developed cities in quantity ,quality and luxury than FIndland ,even thought is only a small part of so huge continent ..it will be unfair to look at the size of Russia and look for undeveloped cities.. You will find that in any major country in the world.. including US /France or Germany..

    Oh Russia is so poor.. . looks like zimbabwe to me..   lol1  
    Findland can only dream to have all the luxury , history and development that exist in Russia.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #6

    Post  JohninMK on Sat Aug 29, 2015 12:22 pm

    Don't think this guy should expect promotion any time soon. My highlight.

    WASHINGTON, August 29. /TASS/. Russia’s latest moves to expand the area of the continental shelf in the Arctic under its control are in full conformity with international law, a senior US Department of State official said in a special tele-briefing for the media devoted to an international conference on the Arctic, due in Anchorage, Alaska on August 30-31.

    About Russia’s revised bid for expanding the area of its continental shelf in the Arctic, presented on August 3, the US official said: "They are doing things entirely under the process of the Law of the Sea Treaty." The US official said that Russia had carried out extensive work to gather more arguments in support of its claim submitted to the Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf. "They have devoted a lot of science to documenting their claim, and they’re going through the proper process within the Law of the Sea Treaty," the diplomat said. He expects that apparently three countries will be contesting the North Pole, not only Russia and Denmark, which filed their applications earlier, but also Canada. "I’ve had preliminary looks at what Canada might submit as their claim; it also claims the North Pole and a rather large portion of the Arctic Ocean," he said.

    The official expressed regret the US Congress had not yet ratified the relevant convention, which left no chance for Washington to take active moves in the Arctic the way other countries of the region were doing.

    "My only regret is that the United States is not able to have standing under that treaty because we have not acceded to it yet," he said.

    The US official in fact pointed to unfair and biased coverage in the Western media of Russia’s steps to expand its continental shelf borders. "Much has been made over the fact that their (Russians’) claim includes the North Pole; not much of a fuss was made when Denmark made a similar claim," he recalled.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #6

    Post  kvs on Sat Aug 29, 2015 3:16 pm



    Whenever you hear Standard and Poor's predictions think of this credit worthiness map.   Ignore Ukraine as it is an obvious
    problem that even the S&P clowns can't deny.   But look at those deep, rich green A and AA rankings for the Baltic statelets
    and only a BB rating for Russia.   Seriously, S&P is utter crap of a ratings agency.    On what basis do they evaluate the
    debt servicing capacity of Russia?   On the 1998 default?    Russia has basically 10 times less debt compared to the EU "rich"
    countries that average debt loads over 80% of GDP.  

    http://www.cbr.ru/eng/statistics/print.aspx?file=credit_statistics/debt_an_det_new_e.htm&pid=svs&sid=itm_272

    The direct debt of the Russian government is $49.4 billion.   Canada's government debt is over $1 trillion.   You will
    see many sources lump in the $351 billion that the CBR lists as "public sector" into Russia's government debt.  

    * Public Sector External Debt covers liabilities of the General Government, the Central bank, and those entities
    in the banking and other sectors that are public corporations, i.e. non-financial or financial corporations which are subject
    to control by government and the Central bank. Control is established (directly or indirectly) through ownership of more
    than half of the voting shares or otherwise controlling more than half of the shareholder voting power.

    This is a baloney definition.   Gazprom's debt is not the debt of the Russian government.   It is corporate debt and is financed by pure
    corporate activity.   If we are going to move goal posts like this then all the corporate debt in the US of about $14 trillion
    should be lumped into the $16 trillion government debt of the USA.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #6

    Post  Neutrality on Sat Aug 29, 2015 3:31 pm

    kvs wrote:

    Whenever you hear Standard and Poor's predictions think of this credit worthiness map.   Ignore Ukraine as it is an obvious
    problem that even the S&P clowns can't deny.   But look at those deep, rich green A and AA rankings for the Baltic statelets
    and only a BB rating for Russia.   Seriously, S&P is utter crap of a ratings agency.    On what basis do they evaluate the
    debt servicing capacity of Russia?   On the 1998 default?    Russia has basically 10 times less debt compared to the EU "rich"
    countries that average debt loads over 80% of GDP.  

    That is a very intersting infographic. I'm also wondering on what basis S&P rates the Baltic states higher than Russia. Is anyone here who is up to date on the investment potential of these countries? Really curious to find out.

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