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    Mistral News thread #2

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    Militarov
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    Re: Mistral News thread #2

    Post  Militarov on Wed Sep 23, 2015 7:43 pm

    Huh, mediocre navy like Egypt getting Mistrals.... eh...

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    Re: Mistral News thread #2

    Post  JohninMK on Wed Sep 23, 2015 8:28 pm

    Militarov wrote:Huh, mediocre navy like Egypt getting Mistrals.... eh...
    Maybe now but money from the Gulf is being pumped into it, think of it as an embryo Arab Navy.

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    Re: Mistral News thread #2

    Post  JohninMK on Wed Sep 23, 2015 8:38 pm

    Given the ship is designed for them they are a natural Ka-52K customer.

    MOSCOW, September 23. /TASS/. Russia and Egypt have signed an agreement on supplies of fifty helicopters of the Ka-52 Alligator family and Moscow does not rule out delivery of the deck-based version of these helicopters that were designed for the defaulted Mistral project, a well-connected source in the sphere of defense technologies told TASS. "An agreement on the supplies of fifty Ka-52 helicopters has been signed," he said. "If the Egyptian side finds it necessary, the sea-based version of the helicopters will be supplied."

    Officials at the state weaponry trading company Rosoboronexport refrained from commenting on the information.

    Elysees Palace said earlier on Wednesday the French government had reached an agreement on the sales to Egypt of two Mistral-class helicopter carriers that were originally built for the Russian Navy.

    Sources in the Russian Navy’s Main Headquarters told TASS in August that the Navy expects to receive the first Kamov Ka-52K (Katran) ship-borne helicopters in 2017-2018. The helicopters were earlier intended to be based on two Mistral helicopter carriers, which France has refused to deliver to Russia over Moscow's stance on developments in neighboring Ukraine. The Ka-52K is the deck-based version of the Ka-52 Alligator combat helicopter. Initially, this type of helicopters was developed for Mistral helicopter carriers ordered in France in 2011.

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    Re: Mistral News thread #2

    Post  Vladimir79 on Wed Sep 23, 2015 9:49 pm

    sepheronx wrote:Mistral was meant as a transport ship with able to launch/land helicopters. It isnt spaced age tech or anything. Russia was interested in the comm systems and having good relations with France. Instead it got burned. I am glad the mistral deal fell through. And now that Russia got more roubles out of it than before, added that inflation is only 16% (and not in everything but selected items), they should use that towards building their own. Or more landing ships or something.

    Interested in French comms yet we installed our own? They were never allowed to export radios based on NATO waveguides. We wanted modular shipbuilding and we got it... for free. Just because we get paid back in more rubles doesn't mean we made a profit... that is called breaking even when your currency collapses. We are spending $8 billion a month to keep it stable, this billion returned will last 3.5 days.


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    Re: Mistral News thread #2

    Post  Vladimir79 on Wed Sep 23, 2015 9:52 pm

    JohninMK wrote:
    Militarov wrote:Huh, mediocre navy like Egypt getting Mistrals.... eh...
    Maybe now but money from the Gulf is being pumped into it, think of it as an embryo Arab Navy.

    The Arab states are forming their own allied military funded by the GCC and manned by Egypt. They do so under the guise of fighting Islamists but they are trying to become a regional power. Like you really need Mistrals to patrol the Red Sea? Next stop Iran...


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    Re: Mistral News thread #2

    Post  sepheronx on Wed Sep 23, 2015 9:56 pm

    Spend $8b on what? Russian reserves increased to over $360B from $350B as CBR said no more spending to keep ruble afloat.

    As well, if the money is to be used to buy another foreign object then yes, it comes out to the same regardless, but if it is to be used for domestic purchase, then it is technically more money as KVS said, inflation wasnt 100%, but roughly 16 - 20% and that isnt all goods (cost of metals decreased as an example), and since Russian purchases are in rubles for domestic, then it makes a difference.

    And it was supposed to be about comand and control equipment, but guess they didnt get it.

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    Re: Mistral News thread #2

    Post  Vladimir79 on Wed Sep 23, 2015 10:42 pm

    sepheronx wrote:Spend $8b on what? Russian reserves increased to over $360B from $350B as CBR said no more spending to keep ruble afloat.

    As well, if the money is to be used to buy another foreign object then yes, it comes out to the same regardless, but if it is to be used for domestic purchase, then it is technically more money as KVS said, inflation wasnt 100%, but roughly 16 - 20% and that isnt all goods (cost of metals decreased as an example), and since Russian purchases are in rubles for domestic, then it makes a difference.

    And it was supposed to be about comand and control equipment, but guess they didnt get it.

    The Reserve Fund is being used to pay the difference as well SOEs are still required to buy the rouble. It is just shifted from one set of books to another set no one looks at. They are learning well from the Chinese...

    They knew they would never get SENIT 9 much less any NATO data links. It wouldn't even be compatible with our C&C.



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    Re: Mistral News thread #2

    Post  Militarov on Wed Sep 23, 2015 10:44 pm

    Vladimir79 wrote:
    JohninMK wrote:
    Militarov wrote:Huh, mediocre navy like Egypt getting Mistrals.... eh...
    Maybe now but money from the Gulf is being pumped into it, think of it as an embryo Arab Navy.

    The Arab states are forming their own allied military funded by the GCC and manned by Egypt.  They do so under the guise of fighting Islamists but they are trying to become a regional power.  Like you really need Mistrals to patrol the Red Sea?  Next stop Iran...

    I dont mind Egypt getting Mistrals, better Egypt than Canada or Saudi Arabia if you ask me, but they imo lack support ships and infrastructure to host and use such ships. Also tbh i dont know whats the point of Mistral ships for such fairly small navy, Mistral is not littoral patrol ship or frigate. I am aware they invested quite alot in their navy recently but still if i was in their skin id rather spend my money on something else.

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    Re: Mistral News thread #2

    Post  Vladimir79 on Wed Sep 23, 2015 10:56 pm

    Militarov wrote:

    I dont mind Egypt getting Mistrals, better Egypt than Canada or Saudi Arabia if you ask me, but they imo lack support ships and infrastructure to host and use such ships. Also tbh i dont know whats the point of Mistral ships for such fairly small navy, Mistral is not littoral patrol ship or frigate. I am aware they invested quite alot in their navy recently but still if i was in their skin id rather spend my money on something else.

    I really don't buy the excuse of using it to fight Houthis rebels, the GCC infrastructure is good enough to get troops as close or closer to the action than a floating army base can get it. BPC is a tool for power projection. Egypt cites the need as they have discovered natural gas off the coast, but what are they going to do with it in open water? Hey, we need to send an armoured brigade to defend the drilling rig?


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    Re: Mistral News thread #2

    Post  sepheronx on Wed Sep 23, 2015 11:08 pm

    Vladimir79 wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:Spend $8b on what? Russian reserves increased to over $360B from $350B as CBR said no more spending to keep ruble afloat.

    As well, if the money is to be used to buy another foreign object then yes, it comes out to the same regardless, but if it is to be used for domestic purchase, then it is technically more money as KVS said, inflation wasnt 100%, but roughly 16 - 20% and that isnt all goods (cost of metals decreased as an example), and since Russian purchases are in rubles for domestic, then it makes a difference.

    And it was supposed to be about comand and control equipment, but guess they didnt get it.

    The Reserve Fund is being used to pay the difference as well SOEs are still required to buy the rouble.  It is just shifted from one set of books to another set no one looks at.  They are learning well from the Chinese...

    They knew they would never get SENIT 9 much less any NATO data links.  It wouldn't even be compatible with our C&C.


    I am only going by what CBR said. If you got any documents to share, please do. CBR last said they will let the ruble float except for buying them (buying roubles is a good way to increase its value while increasing its overall supply). Seems majority of sales of USD is going straight to buy gold.  As well, reserve and welfare fund both fall under forex according to Nebulina or whatever her name is.

    As for the C4I, we all figured it. I always agreed with smoothiex12 that it was a bad decision to buy it.


    Last edited by sepheronx on Wed Sep 23, 2015 11:11 pm; edited 2 times in total

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    Re: Mistral News thread #2

    Post  kvs on Wed Sep 23, 2015 11:09 pm

    Vladimir79 wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:Spend $8b on what? Russian reserves increased to over $360B from $350B as CBR said no more spending to keep ruble afloat.

    As well, if the money is to be used to buy another foreign object then yes, it comes out to the same regardless, but if it is to be used for domestic purchase, then it is technically more money as KVS said, inflation wasnt 100%, but roughly 16 - 20% and that isnt all goods (cost of metals decreased as an example), and since Russian purchases are in rubles for domestic, then it makes a difference.

    And it was supposed to be about comand and control equipment, but guess they didnt get it.

    The Reserve Fund is being used to pay the difference as well SOEs are still required to buy the rouble.  It is just shifted from one set of books to another set no one looks at.  They are learning well from the Chinese...

    They knew they would never get SENIT 9 much less any NATO data links.  It wouldn't even be compatible with our C&C.


    Sorry but you are barking up the wrong tree. When the CBR fully floated the ruble in December it eliminated all money spending on
    ruble buys to modulate the exchange rate. This was many billions per month saved. You are talking about expenditures in addition
    to CBR's previous interventions. No accounting games here whatsoever.

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    Re: Mistral News thread #2

    Post  Militarov on Wed Sep 23, 2015 11:27 pm

    Vladimir79 wrote:
    Militarov wrote:

    I dont mind Egypt getting Mistrals, better Egypt than Canada or Saudi Arabia if you ask me, but they imo lack support ships and infrastructure to host and use such ships. Also tbh i dont know whats the point of Mistral ships for such fairly small navy, Mistral is not littoral patrol ship or frigate. I am aware they invested quite alot in their navy recently but still if i was in their skin id rather spend my money on something else.

    I really don't buy the excuse of using it to fight Houthis rebels, the GCC infrastructure is good enough to get troops as close or closer to the action than a floating army base can get it.  BPC is a tool for power projection.  Egypt cites the need as they have discovered natural gas off the coast, but what are they going to do with it in open water?  Hey, we need to send an armoured brigade to defend the drilling rig?

    Egypt does not have THAT big coast, you can fairly easy and fast transport whatever you want from land bases especially with their amount of helicopters and transport aircraft.

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    Re: Mistral News thread #2

    Post  Vladimir79 on Wed Sep 23, 2015 11:29 pm

    kvs wrote:
    Sorry but you are barking up the wrong tree.   When the CBR fully floated the ruble in December it eliminated all money spending on
    ruble buys to modulate the exchange rate.   This was many billions per month saved.    You are talking about expenditures in addition
    to CBR's previous interventions.   No accounting games here whatsoever.

    The CBR didn't stop the intervention until July. It simply moved from dumping dollars to spending the Reserve Fund, $38 billion already allocated this year. SOEs still can't transact in any currency other than local so they either lose or win depending on exchange rates. The exchange rate is not only determined by FOREX, it is the total of current accounts so move one column into another no one looks at and you suddenly engineer some miracle. The situation hasn't changed.


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    Re: Mistral News thread #2

    Post  Vladimir79 on Wed Sep 23, 2015 11:32 pm

    Militarov wrote:

    Egypt does not have THAT big coast, you can fairly easy and fast transport whatever you want from land bases especially with their amount of helicopters and transport aircraft.

    That is what doesn't make sense.  The Sinai has some hard to reach terrain but it is no harder to drive there and hike than it is to conduct an amphibious operation and still hike into mountains.  Of course Egypt is rather indebted to fight Houthis now that GCC practically bought their new military so Yemeni operations are foreseeable. Maybe they want to invade Somalia too? That makes more sense for a PCB.


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    Re: Mistral News thread #2

    Post  TheArmenian on Thu Sep 24, 2015 12:33 am

    Just a (very) wild guess about the Mistral sales to Egypt:

    Egypt buys them. A few months later sells them back to Russia. US is outraged. French government fires the officials who "forgot" to put a clause in the contract that does not allow Egypt to sell the ships without French consent...

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    Re: Mistral News thread #2

    Post  ExBeobachter1987 on Thu Sep 24, 2015 12:57 am

    TheArmenian wrote:Just a (very) wild guess about the Mistral sales to Egypt:

    Egypt buys them. A few months later sells them back to Russia.  US is outraged. French government fires the officials who "forgot" to put a clause in the contract that does not allow Egypt to sell the ships without French consent...

    Twisted Evil

    Certain Russians would be also outraged. angry

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    Re: Mistral News thread #2

    Post  PapaDragon on Thu Sep 24, 2015 1:22 am

    Vladimir79 wrote:
    kvs wrote:
    Sorry but you are barking up the wrong tree.   When the CBR fully floated the ruble in December it eliminated all money spending on
    ruble buys to modulate the exchange rate.   This was many billions per month saved.    You are talking about expenditures in addition
    to CBR's previous interventions.   No accounting games here whatsoever.

    The CBR didn't stop the intervention until July.  It simply moved from dumping dollars to spending the Reserve Fund, $38 billion already allocated this year.  SOEs still can't transact in any currency other than local so they either lose or win depending on exchange rates.  The exchange rate is not only determined by FOREX, it is the total of current accounts so move one column into another no one looks at and you suddenly engineer some miracle.  The situation hasn't changed.  

    Don't you think that MSM would already be screaming bloody murder if that were the case? It would be too good to pass up...

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    Re: Mistral News thread #2

    Post  Vladimir79 on Thu Sep 24, 2015 1:43 am

    TheArmenian wrote:Just a (very) wild guess about the Mistral sales to Egypt:

    Egypt buys them. A few months later sells them back to Russia.  US is outraged. French government fires the officials who "forgot" to put a clause in the contract that does not allow Egypt to sell the ships without French consent...

    Twisted Evil

    They would void any service contracts or warranty, not to mention Egypt is in talks to buy Ka-52s. My only question is who is financing this... I heard rumours we could be offering low interest loans instead of French financing.


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    Re: Mistral News thread #2

    Post  Vladimir79 on Thu Sep 24, 2015 1:49 am

    PapaDragon wrote:

    Don't you think that MSM would already be screaming bloody murder if that were the case? It would be too good to pass up...

    The media doesn't have enough time to explain it before readers would fall asleep... they look for drama.


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    Re: Mistral News thread #2

    Post  sepheronx on Thu Sep 24, 2015 1:56 am

    PapaDragon wrote:
    Vladimir79 wrote:
    kvs wrote:
    Sorry but you are barking up the wrong tree.   When the CBR fully floated the ruble in December it eliminated all money spending on
    ruble buys to modulate the exchange rate.   This was many billions per month saved.    You are talking about expenditures in addition
    to CBR's previous interventions.   No accounting games here whatsoever.

    The CBR didn't stop the intervention until July.  It simply moved from dumping dollars to spending the Reserve Fund, $38 billion already allocated this year.  SOEs still can't transact in any currency other than local so they either lose or win depending on exchange rates.  The exchange rate is not only determined by FOREX, it is the total of current accounts so move one column into another no one looks at and you suddenly engineer some miracle.  The situation hasn't changed.  

    Don't you think that MSM would already be screaming bloody murder if that were the case? It would be too good to pass up...

    Although, if they simply moved the money from the reserve fund to another fund (moving money around) then it may make sense.

    http://lenta.ru/news/2015/08/17/ruble/

    Assistant to the President explained that the volume of the Central Bank reserves, excluding gold now stands at a little over $ 300 billion. "But of the $ 300 billion more than 120 billion accounted for stocks of government - it is the Reserve Fund and National Welfare Fund, which is stored in the form of currency", - said Belousov.

    So of the central bank reserves, part of it, $120B of it, is reserve fund and welfare fund.  

    http://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/66539/

    On July 1, 2015 Russia's international reserves stood at $ 361.7 billion. Of these, 84%, or $ 302 billion, accounted for by foreign currency assets, including $ 256.5 billion of securities and $ 45.5 billion for foreign cash and deposits . Reserves in gold bullion and coins amounted to 48 billion, or 16% of the total. A year ago, the proportion of gold in the international reserves of the country was 9.8%. According to the Central Bank, as of August 14 of this year, Russia's international reserves totaled $ 362.9 billion.

    So if the reserve fund dropped by $38B, that would mean that effectively combined of the reserve fund and the welfare fund would be $82B, which in that case, they would have to remove $38B from the total of $362.9B mentioned as CBR reserves (which is mentioned by Belousaov as accounting both the reserve fund and welfare fund).

    Vladimir79 wrote:
    PapaDragon wrote:

    Don't you think that MSM would already be screaming bloody murder if that were the case? It would be too good to pass up...

    The media doesn't have enough time to explain it before readers would fall asleep... they look for drama.

    I dunno, read above.  I am quite intrigued though, could you please share some more info like links?

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    Re: Mistral News thread #2

    Post  PapaDragon on Thu Sep 24, 2015 2:24 am

    Vladimir79 wrote:
    PapaDragon wrote:

    Don't you think that MSM would already be screaming bloody murder if that were the case? It would be too good to pass up...

    The media doesn't have enough time to explain it before readers would fall asleep... they look for drama.

    Never stopped them before. There all  been looking for ''Russia collapses'' story for over three years and they just pass something like this up? Not noticing a smoking gun?
    Even they aren't that incompetent.

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    Re: Mistral News thread #2

    Post  Vladimir79 on Thu Sep 24, 2015 2:54 am

    sepheronx wrote:

    I dunno, read above.  I am quite intrigued though, could you please share some more info like links?

    Don't be a link troll... when capital flight occurs you have to balance the current account. CBR does that putting money back into the economy. The bleeding doesn't stop until capital inflows match or exceed outflows.





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    Re: Mistral News thread #2

    Post  sepheronx on Thu Sep 24, 2015 3:01 am

    Vladimir79 wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:

    I dunno, read above.  I am quite intrigued though, could you please share some more info like links?

    Don't be a link troll... when capital flight occurs you have to balance the current account.  CBR does that putting money back into the economy.  The bleeding doesn't stop until capital inflows match or exceed outflows.    




    OK, well, I am only going by what is being mentioned by the authorities.

    As well, capital outflow has been mentioned to be the paying off debt.  Since there is not going to be much inflow from FDI anymore, there will be a negative for quite sometime till the debt is payed off. So it may make sense if they are forced to replace that FDI with domestic use of funds. But according to CBR/Rosstats and what not, the CBR reserve funds are not being used but growing again.

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    Re: Mistral News thread #2

    Post  sepheronx on Thu Sep 24, 2015 3:15 am

    What you are saying makes sense, replacing the FDI and outflow with domestic investments through the reserve funds, but it seems extremely strange that they say the CBR reserves have grown and documented. Only thing I can think of is if they account those investments in their books as reserves or liquidity....

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    Re: Mistral News thread #2

    Post  Vladimir79 on Thu Sep 24, 2015 3:51 am

    sepheronx wrote:What you are saying makes sense, replacing the FDI and outflow with domestic investments through the reserve funds, but it seems extremely strange that they say the CBR reserves have grown and documented.  Only thing I can think of is if they account those investments in their books as reserves or liquidity....

    FX reserve value changes a hundred times a day based on the exchange rates of the holdings. They hold the same assets and it can still change drastically without buying or selling anything. Based on the policy they haven't been active trading since July.


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