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    Russian Transport Aircraft fleet (VTA)

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    GarryB

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    Re: Russian Transport Aircraft fleet (VTA)

    Post  GarryB on Thu Oct 12, 2017 8:53 am

    They could also build stretched IL-76MFD-90A to get more bang for the buck-

    The Il-476 is already stretched to take it from the 40 tons payload of the early Il-76 aircraft to about 62 tons of the current models.

    the Il-214 better known as MTA, is an An-12 size shortened Il-76 with two engines.

    I suspect they will go with the new heavy transport family using the new more powerful engines with a two engined aircraft in the 80-100 ton payload class, a four engined aircraft in the 120-150 ton payload class, and a six engined heavy transport for outsized external loads.

    The AN-70 saga may continue to RF favour once the Kiev regime is gone.

    If anything a shorter lighter Il-76 with prop fans could substitute for the An-70, but I doubt the An-70 has a chance.

    Unless Ukraine is swallowed by Russia & revives it.

    If the Ukraine collapses and Moscow has to recover the body, then the cost of fixing what was the Ukraine... even just a few regions... would cost so much there would be no plans for An-70 type aircraft for a very long time.

    IL-76 (old & new) is an overkill (in all aspects) as a substitute, & IL-112/114 are jokes compared with it.

    Not really... a smaller lighter Il-76 with new engines, but only two perhaps could perform the same role as the An-70 without costing too much.

    Il-112 and Il-114 are a totally different class of aircraft and to be honest would be rather more use to Russia than the An-70 would.

    The main user of the An-70 in Russia would be the VDV and to be honest the Il-476 would do a better job... especially with heavier equipment.

    There is a bit of pride involved too.... Russia could easily have given the An-70 programme to Ilyusion, or even Tupolev... they gave it to Antonov because of tradition and to keep the workers in the Ukraine working. The Ukraine threw it back in their faces, so there is almost no chance of the Russians doing something to help the Ukraine now even if the Ukraine asked nicely.... which they wont.


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    Tsavo Lion

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    Re: Russian Transport Aircraft fleet (VTA)

    Post  Tsavo Lion on Thu Oct 12, 2017 9:57 pm

    Downsizing IL-476 with 2 propfans/jets is a lot harder than just stretching it even more. If it's done, this plane may become the C-17 counterpart, if it's not widened, at least in payload, & with good export potential. Then the future IL-106 & AN-124 follow-ons #s may not be so critical. In related news, Japan's C-2 (with 30T payload) is offered to ME, at $173M(!) each:
    http://quwa.org/2017/10/09/kawasaki-heavy-industries-market-c-2-transport-middle-east/
    Comparable strategic airlifters include the propfan-powered Airbus Defence & Space (DS) A400M and Antonov (under UkroBoronProm) An-70. Russia’s VTA IL-76MD-90A is a jet-powered alternative. The Airbus DS A400M has a payload of 30 tons, with which it can fly a range of 4,500 km (and 6,400 km with a 20-ton payload). With a 35-ton payload, the An-70 can fly 5,100 km, but the platform is not in production. UkroBoronProm is hoping to revive the An-70 with U.S. industry support under the Antonov An-77 program. The IL-76MD-90A can reach 5,000 km with a 52-ton payload.
    For comparison, the latter costs $58M, ~3 times less. http://www.deagel.com/Support-Aircraft/Il-476_a000368004.aspx

    The IL-214 (with 20T payload) is still in development but the An-70 already been tested 2 y ago delivering military cargo in Europe & Africa. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ilyushin_Il-214#Specifications

    The An-70 exceeds.. the A400M (the purchase and operation costs of the An-70 are twice lower). The max.weight capacity of the An-70 is 47 tonnes.
    http://open4business.com.ua/ukrainian-military-transport-aircraft-an-70-passes-direct-test-in-africa/

    It's not about helping Ukraine under the present or next regime there - the AN-124 saga is a case in point. Russia could take the design, modify it & produce a derivative under a different name.
    Ukraine & Belarus will be eventually divided up among others like Poland was before WWI, so RF'll get only parts of it. Then it would make sense to call it "Russian &/ Eastern Slavic Confederation/Commonwealth" instead.
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    eehnie

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    Re: Russian Transport Aircraft fleet (VTA)

    Post  eehnie on Thu Oct 12, 2017 11:49 pm

    eehnie wrote:Data by weight class, updated in 2017 from Russianplanes.net and other complementary sources:

    -

    Active 010 Reserve 016 Production 1984-Today An-124

    Active 005 Reserve 000 Production 1979-Today Il-86/80/96
    Active 006 Reserve 003 Production 1966-1975 An-22

    Active 146 Reserve 071 Production 1973-Today Il-76/78/A-50
    Active 007 Reserve 002 Production 1966-Today Il-62

    Active 004 Reserve 000 Production 1990-Today Tu-204/214
    Active 018 Reserve 003 Production 1969-Today Tu-154

    Active 000 Reserve 000 Production 2010-Today Su-Superjet100
    Active 031 Reserve 054 Production 1980-Today Mi-26/27
    Active 000 Reserve 000 Production 1976-2003 Yak-42/142: http://russianplanes.net/planelist/Yakovlev/Yak-42
    Active 064 Reserve 102 Production 1964-1989 Tu-134
    Active 048 Reserve 007 Production 1959-1985 Il-18/20/22/24
    Active 060 Reserve 059 Production 1957-1972 An-10/12

    Active 028 Reserve 019 Production 1985-Today An-72/71/74
    Active 000 Reserve 019 Production 1960-1980 Mi-6/10

    Active 159 Reserve 145 Production 1962-Today An-24/26/30/32

    Active 000 Reserve 000 Production 2017-Today Mi-38
    Active 089 Reserve 000 Production 2009-Today Yak-130
    Active 130 Reserve 074 Production 1980-Today Ka-27/28/29/31/32

    Active 000 Reserve 000 Production 2017-Today Ka-60/62

    Active 036 Reserve 000 Production 2013-Today Mi-Ansat
    Active 041 Reserve 000 Production 2004-Today Ka-226
    Active 000 Reserve 000 Production 1995-Today Il-103: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ilyushin_Il-103
    Active 000 Reserve 000 Production 1985-Today Yak-55/54/56: https://www.aviaport.ru/directory/aviation/jak54/
    Active 000 Reserve 000 Production 1984-Today Su-26/29/31: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhoi_Su-29
    Active 099 Reserve 240 Production 1977-1998 Yak-52
    Active 015 Reserve 005 Production 1966-1993 Mi-2
    Active 036 Reserve 038 Production 1950-1991 An-2

    Including all the most modern Russian and Sovietic successful aircrafts and helicopters with production over 50 units, plus the Mi-38 and the Ka-60/62 which mass production begins now, are expected to be a success, and have been ordered by the Russian Armed Forces. Not included foreign aircrafts that are likely to disappear soon from the Russian Armed forces (by sale, transfer to other governmental ministries or other way):

    Active 010 Reserve 000 Production 2009-Today An-148/158/178 in the weignt clas of the An-72/74
    Active 009 Reserve 000 Production 1997-Today An-140 in the weight class of the An-24/26/30/32
    Active 029 Reserve 070 Production 1970-2015 L-410 in the weight class of the Ka-60/62
    Active 200 Reserve 000 Production 1977-1998 L-39 in the weight class of the Mi-Ansat

    Green means production available for Russia. Blue means unlikely to reach the Russian Armed Forces. Purple is related with foreign aircrafts likely to disappear soon, and red is related with the proportion of units in active service or reserve produced in 1975 or before. Totally red means all the units in the Russian Armed Forces produced in 1975 or before. In the case of the An-2 only 2 units have been produced after 1975. In the case of the Mi-2 the number of units produced after 1975 is exactly the number of units in active service.

    Between the 6 biggest cathegories aircrafts are dominant. Between the 5 smaller cathegories the helicopters would be dominant despite to be not present in all the cathegories, taking into account the success of the Mi-26/27 (bigger than the success of the An-72/71/74, with higher number of units produced). In the future I would expect:

    - Transport aircrafts to be successful in the 2nd to 6th cathegories (since 20 tons payload).
    - Airliner aircrafts to be successful in the 3rd to 6th cathegories (since 95-100 passengers + mid range >5000Km).
    - Helicopters to be successful in the 6th to 11th cathegories (until 20 tons payload).
    - Trainer aircrafts to be successful in the 9th and 11th cathegories.
    - Trainer helicopters to be successful in the 11th cathegory.

    The success is uncertain for the rest of the options. As overall rule, I would avoid to invest on them.

    According to this and recovering the results about priorities of my previous comment, that come from here, this would be the order of priority for non-combat aircrafts and helicopters:

    0.- Su-SJ100 (I expect some order from the Russian Armed Forces in the short term).

    1.- Mi-46 (in the An-24/26/30/32 size class with around 10 tons payload).
    2.- Il-214 40 or Tu-330 or Be A-40/42 (in the Tu-204/214 size class with around 40 tons payload).
    3.- Ka-102 (in the An-72/74 size class with around 15 tons payload).
    4.- PTS 80 or Il-106 (in the An-22 size class with around 80 tons payload).
    5.- Il-214 or Tu-230 (in the An-10/12 size class with around 20 tons payload).
    6.- PTS 160 (in the An-124 size class with around 160 tons payload).
    7.- Il-214 60 (in the Il-76/78 Be-A50 size class with around 60 tons payload).

    8.- Il-90 or Frigate Ecojet (in the Il-62 size class for double configuration: 1 mid passenger capacity + long range, 2 high passenger capacity + mid range).
    9.- Tu-304 or Comac C929 (in the Il-86/80/96 size class for high passenger capacity + long range).
    10.- New Helicopter (in the Mi-26/27 size class with around 20 tons payload.
    11.- MS-21/Yak-242 (in the Tu-204/214 size class for mid passenger capacity + mid range).

    While it would be interesting to see the first group in serial production before the end of 2025, the last group can be finnished between 2026 and 2050.

    Note that the PTS 240 would come as consecuence of the three sizes philosophy, but would not be prioritary in my view. The Il-PAK-TA is not in the list because would be for air transport in contested areas.

    I would expect the An-22 to be used in Syria until to be totally exhausted in the short term.

    Under this size thegorization by weight, the Ukranian An-70 would be in the size cathegory of the Il-76. It means it would be redundant with the Il-76, a little smaller but redundant. And from being a little smaller there is a disadvantage for the An-70. With 47 tons of payload is not assured that can afford to transport warfare on the Armata platform, being oversized for warfare on the Kurganets or Bumerang platforms.

    For smaller payloads I think it would be better for Russia to focus in the development of a new transport aircraft with around 40 tons of payload in the size cathegory of the Tu-204/214, like explained in the previous quote. The timeline exposed for the need of new aircrafts would be long enough for the development of the new aircrafts and helicopters coming.
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    GarryB

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    Re: Russian Transport Aircraft fleet (VTA)

    Post  GarryB on Fri Oct 13, 2017 10:52 am

    Downsizing IL-476 with 2 propfans/jets is a lot harder than just stretching it even more.

    Make the wing smaller by taking out sections on each side and then shorten the fuselage by quite a bit and make it a 35 ton payload platform with twin engines to replace the An-70.

    Keep the standard Il-476 in production and develop a new family of transports with the bigger engines to replace the engines in the An-124.

    That way you end up with 4-5 transport types optimised for different weight loads but with only 2 different engine types.

    The IL-214 (with 20T payload) is still in development but the An-70 already been tested 2 y ago delivering military cargo in Europe & Africa.

    The AN-70 is not in competition with the Il-214... they are different types for different roles.

    The Il214 is supposed to replace all the 20 ton payload transports in the Russian VTA... ie they are replacing the An-12s.

    A two engined shorter lighter Il-476 will still be too big and too heavy to do that job.

    What they need is an An-70 replacement for the VDV... the An-70 has been tested but is not an option for the Russians... all the paperwork and most of the components are Ukrainian.... you might as well suggest the Russian naval Infantry adopt a T-84 Ukrainian tank design... it would be just as impossible.


    It's not about helping Ukraine under the present or next regime there - the AN-124 saga is a case in point. Russia could take the design, modify it & produce a derivative under a different name.

    The Russians don't have the An-70 design and even if they did the engines it uses are progress designs that are not in production anywhere.

    Without the engine it makes no sense to make it.  Without that specific engine it makes more sense to adopt an engine that will be in Russian service.... the PD-14... which is what the Il-476 will be using four of.

    Hey... there is an idea... why not reduce the size of an Il-476... ie shorter fuselage and shorter wingspan and take off two engines and make a little Il-476... maybe call it a Il-276.... in the 25-30 ton payload class with a 5,000km range.

    Ukraine & Belarus will be eventually divided up among others like Poland was before WWI, so RF'll get only parts of it. Then it would make sense to call it "Russian &/ Eastern Slavic Confederation/Commonwealth" instead.

    Even if there was a 100% guarantee that this would actually happen there is no time frame for it.... that might take 50 years.

    Even if it did happen there is no guarantee the An-70 and the factories that make all its parts wont be sold off to the highest foreign bidder way before then anyway and then where would Russian plans be?

    For smaller payloads I think it would be better for Russia to focus in the development of a new transport aircraft with around 40 tons of payload in the size cathegory of the Tu-204/214, like explained in the previous quote. The timeline exposed for the need of new aircrafts would be long enough for the development of the new aircrafts and helicopters coming.

    Previous weight classes were 20 tons = An-12, 40 tons = Il-76, 80 tons = An-22, and 100 plus tons the An-124.

    The An-12 is being replaced by the Tu-214 in the 20 ton payload class. The current production model Il-76s have moved to 60 tons payload in the Il-476 model and the An-124 is in the 120-150 ton payload class depending upon the model.

    Old model Il-76s could be given basic upgrades and keep them in the 40 ton payload class to fill the role of the An-70 but I think a reduced size model Il-276 would be interesting for the gap between the Tu-214 and the Il-476.


    _________________
    “The West won the world not by the superiority of its ideas or values or religion […] but rather by its superiority in applying organized violence. Westerners often forget this fact; non-Westerners never do.”

    ― Samuel P. Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order

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