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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #17

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    ExBeobachter1987
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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #17

    Post  ExBeobachter1987 on Sat Jul 18, 2015 10:50 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:When NATO attacked us they expected us to capitulate in 72 hours. Instead they had to settle for negotiated end after 3 months. Getting bombed was unavoidable part of the events.
    We were isolated, cut off, outnumbered, outgunned, and out of time. Still we pulled off the impossible.

    You fought well, but you lost the war and the territory you fought for.
    The "negotiated end" was not much better than Minsk I-II.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #17

    Post  Karl Haushofer on Sat Jul 18, 2015 10:50 pm

    Ivan the Colorado wrote:
    Karl Haushofer wrote:
    Rodinazombie wrote:
    The moment NAF starts a major offensive and carves up territory that whole process of ukrainian disintigration goes back to zero.
    You are living in a la-la land if you think that non-Donbass Ukraine is in danger of disintegration. What happened in Mukacheno was nice and even encouraging, but it was still only a minor skirmish involving only a handful people.

    In fact Russia is more of a danger of losing Northern Caucasus than Ukraine is in danger of being disintegrated.
    Ya drunk? drunken drunken drunken
    Well, I don't see either of them as a serious possibility right now. Ukraine will not disintegrate because there are no regions in Ukraine (except maybe for Donbass) where the majority of people do not consider themselves Ukrainians. And Russia is not going to lose Chechnya or Dagestan either because at the moment Russia has enough resources to keep these regions mostly happy.

    However, the prospect of Russia losing Chechnya or Dagestan is higher than prospect of Ukraine losing any of its current regions because these Russian regions have a different mentality and religion and ethnicity than the majority of the Russian people.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #17

    Post  whir on Sat Jul 18, 2015 10:53 pm

    Sorry if this offends someone but...

    WTF has happened here? Is everyone going full retard? angry

    As I wrote yesterday replying to Kepesh I've the feeling that we're witnessing a redux of "the reinforcements are coming" from last summer.

    All positions along the frontline are compromised after months of intel gathering and susceptible to artillery. Just the notion of a pull back wrecks any orchestrated effort to monitor NAF activity along the contact line.

    The combined arms training we have seen in the last few weeks is not simply a stupid way to spend fuel and ammunition for the sake of it.

    And don't forget that ATO 2 is just in it's initial stage with NG driving around just like they were doing prior to the referendum.

    PapaDragon
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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #17

    Post  PapaDragon on Sat Jul 18, 2015 10:57 pm

    ExBeobachter1987 wrote:
    PapaDragon wrote:When NATO attacked us they expected us to capitulate in 72 hours. Instead they had to settle for negotiated end after 3 months. Getting bombe'd was unavoidable part of the events.
    We were isolated, cut off, outnumbered, outgunned, and out of time. Still we pulled off the impossible.

    You fought well, but you lost the war and the territory you fought for.
    The "negotiated end" was not much better than Minsk I-II.

    Dude, NOBODY here expected to win, we just wanted to play good game before inevitably folding. We surprised ourselves buy lasting this long and not getting occupied.

    I am sure some other folks would do sooooooo much better in similar conditions against enemy of comparable size and strength... Rolling Eyes lol1 Cool lol1

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #17

    Post  Ivan the Colorado on Sat Jul 18, 2015 11:00 pm

    Karl Haushofer wrote:
    Ivan the Colorado wrote:
    Karl Haushofer wrote:
    Rodinazombie wrote:
    The moment NAF starts a major offensive and carves up territory that whole process of ukrainian disintigration goes back to zero.
    You are living in a la-la land if you think that non-Donbass Ukraine is in danger of disintegration. What happened in Mukacheno was nice and even encouraging, but it was still only a minor skirmish involving only a handful people.

    In fact Russia is more of a danger of losing Northern Caucasus than Ukraine is in danger of being disintegrated.
    Ya drunk? drunken drunken drunken
    Well, I don't see either of them as a serious possibility right now. Ukraine will not disintegrate because there are no regions in Ukraine (except maybe for Donbass) where the majority of people do not consider themselves Ukrainians. And Russia is not going to lose Chechnya or Dagestan either because at the moment Russia has enough resources to keep these regions mostly happy.

    However, the prospect of Russia losing Chechnya or Dagestan is higher than prospect of Ukraine losing any of its current regions because these Russian regions have a different mentality and religion and ethnicity than the majority of the Russian people.
    Check the government support polls in the Russian regions of the Caucasus. The results will blow your mind.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #17

    Post  ExBeobachter1987 on Sat Jul 18, 2015 11:00 pm

    Karl Haushofer wrote:Probably, but Russia would lose a big portion of Black Sea coastline with Dagestan and also the Caucasus mountains as a geographical barrier in south.

    Neither is existence-threatening, unlike the decay of the central part of the country.
    Remember what destroyed the USSR.
    Not the secession of the Baltic republics and certain other peripheral SSR, but opposition in the founding, Slavic republics.

    Karl Haushofer wrote:And NATO would most likely swallow Chechnya and Dagestan with military bases soon after.

    Too exposed for that much NATO-commitment.

    Karl Haushofer wrote:Ukraine only lost Crimea because of Russia's direct intervention. Without Russian intervention Crimea would be still Ukrainian.

    The intervention was inevitable thanks to the BSF in Crimea. The Kremlin could not have avoided it without looking very weak.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #17

    Post  sepheronx on Sat Jul 18, 2015 11:01 pm

    Ivan the Colorado wrote:
    Karl Haushofer wrote:
    Ivan the Colorado wrote:
    Karl Haushofer wrote:
    Rodinazombie wrote:
    The moment NAF starts a major offensive and carves up territory that whole process of ukrainian disintigration goes back to zero.
    You are living in a la-la land if you think that non-Donbass Ukraine is in danger of disintegration. What happened in Mukacheno was nice and even encouraging, but it was still only a minor skirmish involving only a handful people.

    In fact Russia is more of a danger of losing Northern Caucasus than Ukraine is in danger of being disintegrated.
    Ya drunk? drunken drunken drunken
    Well, I don't see either of them as a serious possibility right now. Ukraine will not disintegrate because there are no regions in Ukraine (except maybe for Donbass) where the majority of people do not consider themselves Ukrainians. And Russia is not going to lose Chechnya or Dagestan either because at the moment Russia has enough resources to keep these regions mostly happy.

    However, the prospect of Russia losing Chechnya or Dagestan is higher than prospect of Ukraine losing any of its current regions because these Russian regions have a different mentality and religion and ethnicity than the majority of the Russian people.
    Check the government support polls in the Russian regions of the Caucasus. The results will blow your mind.

    Care to share those? I heard Putin was ridiculously popular in the NC regions, but I have no idea.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #17

    Post  whir on Sat Jul 18, 2015 11:02 pm

    видео видео wrote:Donetsk. shelling near a bridge on a bet.

    видео видео wrote:Shelling terrorists DNR Avdeevka

    Ира Типичная wrote:Attention! 18 July 15 shelling of Makeyevka

    TGodessa wrote:Shock! American mercenaries already in Odessa!

    Министерство информации ДНР wrote:tatement by Alexander Zakharchenko, Denis Pushilin and Vladislav Dane

    ExBeobachter1987
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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #17

    Post  ExBeobachter1987 on Sat Jul 18, 2015 11:05 pm

    whir wrote:Sorry if this offends someone but...

    WTF has happened here? Is everyone going full retard? angry

    Mismanagement of the war or at least the PR front in Novorossia led to a partial collapse of morale in this thread.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #17

    Post  BKP on Sat Jul 18, 2015 11:10 pm

    sepheronx wrote:
    BKP wrote:I don't think there's been a single day in which Ukes haven't been in violation of Minsk 2. We know the Western MSM ignore or misrepresent this and fully expected them to do so. And, of course, they will howl with outrage if NAF go on the the offensive, and put all the blame on them and Putin while screaming about the "Minsk agreement."

    Since it's a given that Novos will be blamed regardless, I'm wondering why they don't go on the offensive. Maybe they still don't have adequate forces to do so? Offense is risky, but maybe the US government's strategy for the Ukes is to never commit to a major thrust again, and just slowly kill everyone and destroy everything from a relatively safe distance. That sounds like something they'd come up with: dirty, ruthless, cowardly, but possibly effective in the long term.

    Obviously, the NAF have a clearer picture of what their situation, capabilities, and limitations than we can ever have. Still, it's extremely frustrating having to watch the side of evil and lies deliberately kill civilians day after day.

    I'm still hoping something will give and there will be positive developments.

    Only thing now is to strike back with artillery on the PUkes artillery positions.  The west will scream about it but do nothing.  Because then the PUkes will have to leave their hardened positions to go fight, and NAF would destroy them.  So the only thing NAF isn't doing which should be doing, is hitting those artillery positions.

    Yeah, something like that. Withdrawing heavy weapons at this point as a "goodwill" gesture... I'm not seeing it. There's no goodwill in Kiev, it doesn't exist, and the "gesture" will be ignored by Kiev, Washington and their MSM mouthpieces. So, why bother making it? Maybe these are sarcastic statements, like Putin calling the governments of Europe and North America "partners."

    Maybe these positions are just becoming untenable for the NAF, or they actually are trying to lure the ukrops to attack in force, as neutrality said. I don't know. We'll see.

    Karl Haushofer wrote:
    I am a Western citizen and a Western dominated world probably is good for my material well being, but a moral side of me finds this very disturbing and distressing. I feel for the non-Western world but I also think that they should finally stand up and defend themselves.

    As for Western "material well being," what happened to the Greeks might well be what's in store for all of us. The nation states are being dismantled, public assets privatized, democracy usurped. A new era of corporate serfdom is dawning. </digression>

    Rodinazombie wrote:

    Going on a full blown offensive just plays right into poroshenkos hands. Look how far ukraine has fallen down the black hole, how its militias are biting it on the ass with tensions building up. The moment NAF starts a major offensive and carves up territory that whole process of ukrainian disintigration goes back to zero.

    The rift between porky and the rabbit, pravy sektor, other militias will disappear.
    Suddenly more money will be pouring in from europe and the US and ukraines financial meltdown will be put on hold.
    The fracturing ukie society will pull together via more brainwashing in the face of russian aggression.

    We dont want any of the above happening, why do you think the americans and kiev have been doing their best to goad NAF into doing just that?? If they want you to do it, then its pretty obvious that its the last thing you want to be doing.

    I agree, and this has largely been my position all along. The renewal of large-scale fighting in the east would threaten to undermine process of disintegration taking hold in Ukraine.


    Rodinazombie wrote:

    There has however, got to be a response to the shelling and constant breaking of the minsk treaty by the ukies. They cant be allowed. Or seen to be allowed to shell residential areas with impunity. Whether the response it political or military, it cannot be ignore


    Ah, see? As we just said, a response can carry the danger of stabilizing the rest of Ukraine, which is bad. So, what will the response be?

    This, again, is why I'm glad I'm not actually making these decisions. This is now a very complex situation. I still have faith in the current leadership.

    Also, as to anyone casting aspersions on Putin (not you, RZ). It is clear to me, at least, that he is the great statesman of the current age. In fact, he is one of the few actual statesmen that exist anymore. It's clear that most national "leaders" are puppets now. I won't post some bullet list of his remarkable track record. We are undoubtedly all familiar with it, or should be. I'll just add that I, for one, would not want to be in that man's shoes and take weight of his responsibilities onto my shoulders, or make the decisions that he has to.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #17

    Post  Ivan the Colorado on Sat Jul 18, 2015 11:13 pm

    sepheronx wrote:
    Ivan the Colorado wrote:
    Karl Haushofer wrote:
    Ivan the Colorado wrote:
    Karl Haushofer wrote:
    Rodinazombie wrote:
    The moment NAF starts a major offensive and carves up territory that whole process of ukrainian disintigration goes back to zero.
    You are living in a la-la land if you think that non-Donbass Ukraine is in danger of disintegration. What happened in Mukacheno was nice and even encouraging, but it was still only a minor skirmish involving only a handful people.

    In fact Russia is more of a danger of losing Northern Caucasus than Ukraine is in danger of being disintegrated.
    Ya drunk? drunken drunken drunken
    Well, I don't see either of them as a serious possibility right now. Ukraine will not disintegrate because there are no regions in Ukraine (except maybe for Donbass) where the majority of people do not consider themselves Ukrainians. And Russia is not going to lose Chechnya or Dagestan either because at the moment Russia has enough resources to keep these regions mostly happy.

    However, the prospect of Russia losing Chechnya or Dagestan is higher than prospect of Ukraine losing any of its current regions because these Russian regions have a different mentality and religion and ethnicity than the majority of the Russian people.
    Check the government support polls in the Russian regions of the Caucasus. The results will blow your mind.

    Care to share those?  I heard Putin was ridiculously popular in the NC regions, but I have no idea.
    He is, if I remember of the top of my head he has 98% popular support there. Will try to find the polls.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #17

    Post  Ghoster on Sat Jul 18, 2015 11:15 pm

    whir wrote:Sorry if this offends someone but...

    WTF has happened here? Is everyone going full retard? angry

    As I wrote yesterday replying to Kepesh I've the feeling that we're witnessing a redux of "the reinforcements are coming" from last summer.

    All positions along the frontline are compromised after months of intel gathering and susceptible to artillery. Just the notion of a pull back wrecks any orchestrated effort to monitor NAF activity along the contact line.

    The combined arms training we have seen in the last few weeks is not simply a stupid way to spend fuel and ammunition for the sake of it.

    And don't forget that ATO 2 is just in it's initial stage with NG driving around just like they were doing prior to the referendum.
    Kiev junta gathered all of that intel for naught, since in the end NAF are withdrawing their equipment anyway. Is that what you're saying?

    Now Kiev junta can shell any civilian areas without any fear of a response attack. Albeit the leadership wouldn't let NAF do that anyway.

    Do you really think that if Kiev pulled back all of their weapons from the front, it would be a good thing for them too? There's no cunning plan in these gestures of goodwill. It's gonna make Novorossiya lose.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #17

    Post  kvs on Sat Jul 18, 2015 11:18 pm

    The NAF should be shelling the Ukr regime artillery positions. The NATO propaganda chorus cannot spin this into
    some sort of great atrocity since the regime forces are in open fields if they are shelling Donetsk. If they are
    deployed in villages then NAF forces must attack those villages without shelling them from afar.

    Minsk-2 is not some sacred agreement. It is just a fancy ceasefire. Ceasefires never hold and every NATO resident
    knows this. And as has been pointed out, who the f*ck cares what morons in NATO think.

    It seems the Russian leadership is full of idiots who think their EU "partners" will engage them in rational discourse
    and policy. They need to wake the f*ck up. NATO has gone full retard. Drunk on its hubris and delusions of
    invincibility. Just like Napoleon and Hitler. Appeasing these sick f*cks is akin to surrender. Russia should
    greenlight the NAF to wage full war on the Ukr regime and no more Minsk sellouts. If NATO wants to invade and
    fight the regime's war for it then it should go right ahead. Then the whole world will see what NATO is. By
    doing the slow dance with NATO, Russia gets covered in pig excrement.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #17

    Post  Flagship Victory on Sat Jul 18, 2015 11:53 pm

    My thinking is that the west bated Putin into taking Crimea. Absorbing such a big chunk of Ukraine guarantees that Ukrainians will hate Russia forever, sort of like between Syria and Israel after Israel absorbed Golan in 1982. Putin should have been wiser. Occupy to keep Ukrainian troops out, but not absorb. cheers

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #17

    Post  Flagship Victory on Sat Jul 18, 2015 11:58 pm

    Interpretermag reports Adveevka is under shelling. Not sure if that was yesterday before NAF disarmed or if that was from today. Maidan is claiming that NAF is shelling Donetsk. Shocked See link below.

    http://www.interpretermag.com/ukraine-live-day-516-1-ukrainian-soldier-killed-5-wounded-shelling-in-donetsk/

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #17

    Post  ExBeobachter1987 on Sun Jul 19, 2015 12:05 am

    Flagship Victory wrote:My thinking is that the west bated Putin into taking Crimea.


    You are thinking too highly of the USAE leadership.

    Flagship Victory wrote:Absorbing such a big chunk of Ukraine guarantees that Ukrainians will hate Russia forever, sort of like between Syria and Israel after Israel absorbed Golan in 1982.

    Sounds like a good decision.
    Yats' government did not need a justification to create a cold war between Ukrainians and Russians.
    That was the goal all along and its willingness to blame Russia for everything shows that an excuse would have been found.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #17

    Post  Flagship Victory on Sun Jul 19, 2015 12:07 am

    ExBeobachter1987 wrote:You are thinking too highly of the USAE leadership.

    On the contrary, the US foreign policy against Russia has been working very well. Systematically taking down Russia's allies. Egypt, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Serbia, Ukraine, and now Cuba. Selling arms to India to make India a client of the US rather than a client of Russia. Belarus is next.

    If you look at the Crimea vote last March, you can see how few allies Russia has left.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_General_Assembly_Resolution_68/262


    Last edited by Flagship Victory on Sun Jul 19, 2015 12:14 am; edited 1 time in total

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #17

    Post  Karl Haushofer on Sun Jul 19, 2015 12:10 am

    Flagship Victory wrote:Belarus is next.
    At another board I came across with a Belarussian guy. He is currently in Kiev and his brother is fighting in one of Kiev's volunteer battalions.

    These were his words and I don't know how truthful they are, but he said that after they are done with Donbass separatists they will go after Lukashenko and replace him. And they have wide support from Western intelligence services.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #17

    Post  Vann7 on Sun Jul 19, 2015 12:11 am

    Flagship Victory wrote:My thinking is that the west bated Putin into taking Crimea. Absorbing such a big chunk of Ukraine guarantees that Ukrainians will hate Russia forever, sort of like between Syria and Israel after Israel absorbed Golan in 1982. Putin should have been wiser. Occupy to keep Ukrainian troops out, but not absorb. cheers

    Did you have any thinking?

    Didn't you told pages ago ,that Novorosiya leaders were removed? Please do us a favor
    and keep your thinking for yourself. No one cares.. You are always wrong in everything..
    and seems more like you like to troll.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #17

    Post  Flagship Victory on Sun Jul 19, 2015 12:16 am

    Karl Haushofer wrote:
    Flagship Victory wrote:Belarus is next.
    At another board I came across with a Belarussian guy. He is currently in Kiev and his brother is fighting in one of Kiev's volunteer battalions.

    These were his words and I don't know how truthful they are, but he said that after they are done with Donbass separatists they will go after Lukashenko and replace him. And they have wide support from Western intelligence services.

    For sure most Belarussians hate Lukashenko. Lukashenko is getting old and he's going to run again. This time he'll meet his doom like Gaddafi.


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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #17

    Post  Flagship Victory on Sun Jul 19, 2015 12:22 am

    an update from Yahoo News

    http://news.yahoo.com/russias-lavrov-talks-ukraine-us-german-counterparts-202421618.html

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #17

    Post  JohninMK on Sun Jul 19, 2015 12:23 am

    Rumours of airstrike against RS in the west. Yandex translate.

    Information, about 20:00, between the Great Bereznyi rural areas Zubrod, the Mi-8 helicopter, equipped with facilities to launch guided rockets, desantana group of the military, writes Закарпаття.depo.ua with reference to Mukachevo.today.

    Then on positions of fighters of "Right sector", situated in the forest zone, was attacked from the air.


    http://zak.depo.ua/ukr/zak/na-zakarpatti-viyskoviy-gelikopter-vidkriv-vogon-po-18072015224200

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #17

    Post  Karl Haushofer on Sun Jul 19, 2015 12:27 am

    Flagship Victory wrote:
    Karl Haushofer wrote:
    Flagship Victory wrote:Belarus is next.
    At another board I came across with a Belarussian guy. He is currently in Kiev and his brother is fighting in one of Kiev's volunteer battalions.

    These were his words and I don't know how truthful they are, but he said that after they are done with Donbass separatists they will go after Lukashenko and replace him. And they have wide support from Western intelligence services.

    For sure most Belarussians hate Lukashenko. Lukashenko is getting old and he's going to run again. This time he'll meet his doom like Gaddafi.


    What makes you think the most Belarussians hate him?

    But, even if most of the Belarussians support him the Minsk Maidan is possible if there are enough radical nationalist youth who can be trained by the West and the Belarussian state is too weak to prevent it from happening.

    The key is to win over the minds of young people. The West won in Ukraine because young people believed Western propaganda (probably due to work of Western NGO's). The West is VERY good at winning over youth in every part of the world. It is said that even Iranian youth is pro-Western even after years of western sanctions against Iran.

    Win over the young people and you can overthrow any government unless the government is like in China who simply massacred all the protesters in Tiananmen. Yanuk should have done that but either he or his government was too weak.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #17

    Post  ExBeobachter1987 on Sun Jul 19, 2015 12:31 am

    Flagship Victory wrote:On the contrary, the US foreign policy against Russia has been working very well. Systematically taking down Russia's allies. Egypt, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Serbia, Ukraine, and now Cuba. Selling arms to India to make India a client of the US rather than a client of Russia. Belarus is next.

    What lost allies?
    Russia has regained influence in Egypt and Iraq. Libya and post-Soviet Ukraine were never allies of the Russian Federation and I do not see how Cuba is supposed to be lost.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #17

    Post  Flagship Victory on Sun Jul 19, 2015 12:42 am

    Karl Haushofer wrote:
    What makes you think the most Belarussians hate him?

    Lukashenko is a dictator. Everyone hates dictators. The end of dictators is very bad. Killed like Napoleon, Hitler, Mussolini, Ceaucescu, Gaddafi.

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