The Situation in the Ukraine. #16

Karl Haushofer wrote:And when Donetsk and Lugansk are leveled off the war will also end. Donbass will be an empty destroyed space, emptied from its "subhuman" population and available for "true Ukrainian patriots" to resettle.

Khepesh wrote:Before the fighting there were three water pumping stations supplying Lugansk, two have long been destroyed by ukrops. This evening the electricity substation supplying power to the third and last water pumping station has been destroyed by ukrops with no possibility of repair while fighting continues. Lugansk now has stored water for only two days. This may change all equations....

Karl Haushofer wrote:

whir wrote:

Karl Haushofer wrote:What's the point of continuing this war? It's obvious that Russia is not going to help and the ukrops are able to make the living of Donbass people a hell.

Define "help".

Total military defeat of Kiev so that they are not able to continue the war.

Flagship Victory wrote:What's interesting is that back a couple of months ago if Maidan shells Donetsk with heavy artillery Putin would get up at 3 in the morning and complain about it. These days it's all business as usual and Putin does not say anything about it when Maidan shells Donetsk with heavy artillery. By now, I doubt Russia would complain if the US gives nukes to Ukraine and Maidan drops a nuke on Donetsk. What would Putin say? Oh, that's bad behavior from Russia's brother nation?

Flagship Victory wrote:I think the focus now is turning to Crimea. Expect major air and sea blockade by the US navy based in Odessa very soon. This is going to get way uglier before it gets any better.

par far wrote:The Novorossiyan army should be given the chance to drive these thugs back from shelling. You guys are right Oddesa and Crimea are going to be the next hot spot.

sepheronx wrote:

Flagship Victory wrote:What's interesting is that back a couple of months ago if Maidan shells Donetsk with heavy artillery Putin would get up at 3 in the morning and complain about it. These days it's all business as usual and Putin does not say anything about it when Maidan shells Donetsk with heavy artillery. By now, I doubt Russia would complain if the US gives nukes to Ukraine and Maidan drops a nuke on Donetsk. What would Putin say? Oh, that's bad behavior from Russia's brother nation?

I read Russian news quite often, I highly doubt you do, as I have noticed that when you mentioned countless times that they don't report it, then I head on over to Tass news agency and see that they have reported it and complained about it, gives me full indication that you are lying.

Flagship Victory wrote:

I think the focus now is turning to Crimea. Expect major air and sea blockade by the US navy based in Odessa very soon. This is going to get way uglier before it gets any better.

Vann7 wrote:

Flagship Victory wrote:

I think the focus now is turning to Crimea. Expect major air and sea blockade by the US navy based in Odessa very soon. This is going to get way uglier before it gets any better.

You are watching to many Hollywood movies dude..  US NAVY using its warships to blockade Crimea will mean war.. WAR.. and Russia will have the legitimate right to sink that warship to the
button of the sea.  lets see if i can explain it with an example..

Legitimacy and moral high ground. in your actions is The most important thing in any conflict.   This is what made USA retreat from Syria war with its intention to bomb Syria with its Navy.. Obama based his decisions on a faked false flag chemical weapon attack.. that later UN investigators and many other independent ones told it was a staged event and Assad did not did it..

Why is important Legitimacy and Moral high ground in wars?  Because if you start a war against
another nation illegally ,without reason ,and you suffer a thousand or so casualties ie.. a warship destroyed.. for attacking another Nation that.. 1)have done nothing against you 2) have not committed any crime .  Then the aggressor in this case USA face the HUGE RISK.. that
if they experience major disaster ,,ie.. like an Aegis Destroyer sent to the button of the sea.. with thousands of Americans..  Then the Horror and Scandal will be automatic in America.. everyone will be MAD as hell.. but not with RUssia but with Obama.. because he was messing with Russia at Russian Borders and got Killed americans for its blatant illegal ,illegitimate aggression. So things will be seen as US navy attacked Russia for no reason and Russia fought back in self Defense and sink their warship.. and a revolution will trigger in Washingtong DC asking Obama to Resign and move the hell away US warships from Russia coast to stop their
their attacks..  

So you have here an interesting scenario..
1) A US warship destroyed with thousand american killed.
2) A major civil war in USA cities demanding Obame to resign.
3) And Russia happy about it.. ie.. that they could justify their attack with their Russian
citizens because it is the role of any Government to defend its people.

can you see the difference Legitimacy makes?
IF obama is stupid and do what you say ,to blockade Crimea ,and an Air Blockade.. really?
a no fly zone?     What Russia will do if they were that stupid as you think they are it will
completely destroy any NATO warships participating in the Blockade of Crimea without the blind of an eye.

And the reason is again Legitimacy , Russia have the legitimate right to defend itself.. if Legitimacy was not important ..then Russia will NOT be bothering with any referemdum in
Crimea.. just take Crimea and thats it.  So for Russian Government and for Europe too..
Americans doing what you claim they will do .. will be a declaration of war against Russia followed by an Attack.. it will be no different than US marines invading Russia with thousands of soldiers and tanks..  it will be war.. and it will be non sense.. suicide.  Because Americans cannot fight Russia with soldiers invasion. Remember Russia is a nuclear power with thousands of nuclear weapons.

Why you think Ukraine have no bombed Crimea in 1 year of war ?
Because they have no capabilities to do it and have no airforce? of course not. they
could do it.. if really were crazy they will could do it. But they don't do it.. because
their legitimacy is question.. Crimea hold peacefully a REfemdum  and kiev cannot claim
effectively Russia aggression there because no one was killed and everyone voluntarily declared
its independence from Ukraine. and asked to join Russia..

So i cannot imagine any scenario where americans will declare a naval blockade in Crimea.
As use their warships to stop any Russian commercial ship entering Crimea..That will be War..
And if Americans wants war with Russia ,and will want to start one.. it will make more sense
a preventive nuclear strike on many Russian military bases and Navy ports and Moscow.. that the non sense you suggest.  Of start a war ,for no reason and allow Russia to strike back being
aware they are at war. and allow them to retaliate in full Force and with the support of their people.  (while americans government having no support)

So if americans goes a declare a no fly zone in Crimea or a naval blockade with its
navy as you claim .. It will make things incredibly Easy for Russia. All Russia needs
to do is do a press conference and explain the world the reasons they are declaring war against USA.. to defend their nation from a hostile illegal attack and sink 1-2 US warships and enjoy the American Revolution overthrowing Obama later..    So if american Government were that stupid it will be awesome. Because Russia could defeat US ,in the Crimean way.. using very little force. Just sinking a warship and provoking a civil war in America that will destroy the entire nation ,people very angry with their Government will go to the streets demanding Obama to resign.. and this is not counting ,the HUGE RISK.. that obama will face of a major coup
the Kennedy style , for placing USA in so dangerous situation of an imminent nuclear war with RUssia.

So relax.. there will be no Naval blockade from Americans on any part of Russia ,that will be war. The only thing Americans can do is a proxy war.. provide lethal weapons to Ukraine
and encourage them fight the Rebels that Russia support.. and they will claim is self defense.
So they will have some at very least a debatable level of legitimacy.

Russia was ready to use nuclear weapons against just 1 Cruiser destroyer warships.. according to Putin words..and make no mistake ,Putin will have not Blinked twice to use nukes if there was confirmed reports of a US attack on Crimea..with Russian soldiers killed.  Why nukes? because
a single torpedo could do the job..  To get the maximum possible message to United States and
get the world attention to American Hostile Aggression will not be tolerated by Russia and that will defend itself with everything they have.

If you ever meditate about the word.. Public Opinion  how EXTREMELY important it is in wars... you will understand why Americans fight by Proxy Russia ,in Syria and Ukraine..
and you will Understand why Russia retaliate in Ukraine with another proxy war.  They both fully
understand it will be suicide to start a war without 80% to 90% support of its people. So the fight in Ukraine needs to be done in many fronts.. Military front, Political front ,diplomatic front ,Business front  and Public Opinion front.. that is shaped by the media.

That said americans cannot start a war on Russia without Public opinion absolute majority support. and fully explaining the possible consequences of it.  What American Government
could do if they were really desperate to destroy the planet.. they could start a False FLag
in US cities.. detonate nuclear bombs there.. and later blame Russia for it.

Fortunately for Putin.. he have been very friendly to Americans always speaking
that they want good relations with Americans and will continue working with them even if
relations bad..  So Putin truly understand how important is public opinion in war.. thats why
he calls Ukraine their brotherly nation and how he call americans friends at time..
this is not because Putin is naive or an idiot.. he very well will like to bomb poroshenko and Washington DC.. it is a message to the world opinion.. To get the entire world ,including americans on Russian side.. on the need for political dialogue..

And this is why every American Politician or NATO , whenever they talk about Russia..
the mention the word "Russia Agression" as many times as possible.. and this is to gain
Public Opinion.. to get people opinion on their side.. that way if a war start.. or a major
unintended consequence happens ,that they provoke Russia and Russia strike back.. that the
people anger and hate is driven against Russia and NOT against them. .  

Civil wars are more more dangerous ,for a government than a nuclear war. Because if you get
your army divided ,and half of the nation seeking to overthrow you.. the entire country will go down and without Russia firing a single shot..  and Public Opinion is the most important thing
in the world for any war or conflict. is what makes the difference in weather you will be alone
fighting or with vast majority of the world support.

Remember when Putin told in the Syrian war.. when the US navy was withing  hours to fire
cruise missiles to to Strike Syria.. Putin told he will not fight Americans , not even in defense of their allies in Syria. That Russia will only seek diplomacy to solve their difference..
Did Putin betrayed Syria? No.. It was neccessary to get World Opinion on Russia Side.. and they did it.. and that was the reason Obama retreated from his frontal direct attack on Syrian Government. Because Obama wanted war against Syria was NOT officially supported by anyone in NATO (other than France).. So the World Public Opinion ,including its NATO allies was against
them..    Yet Putin told will never fight in defense of Syria.. but behind the scenes their warships in Syrian Coast were monitoring any single movement of US navy to warn Syria about any missile launch and help with logistics the Syrian Government. Significantly improving
the Syrian Small Navy and Airforce of all US navy movements , Russia could easily have guided
the missiles that Syria fire to its final target.. and Americans will have no way to know or proof
Russia help..

Having a diplomatic,friendly and humanitarian helpful stance ,shaking hands with Poroshenko ,kerry obama and nuland smiling..allows Russia to counter all the propaganda of being a monster by the west.that is worse than ISIS and not as bad as Ebola according to obama  

,and also help to have the entire world opinion on Russian side ,including americans.
that will be extremely helpful not only in case Russia is forced to fight in a major world war..(helping Russia to get overwhelming support of Russian people regardless of Economy ) but also to make Russia immune to AMerican staged False flags attacks (as was the malasyan plane) or any other they planning.that could be used to justify their western aggression.

all said.. in any war that Russia is forced to fight.. they will need to have most of World Opinion on their side..but more than anything Russians opinion, otherwise it Risk ,a major civil war
in Russia demanding Putin to be overthrow for Russians killed in an unjustified war... and this is exactly the goal of Americans.. They know Ukraine stand not a chance to win against Russia..
but it doesn't matter.. as long they can damage Russia and Putin image , something that could be the caused by Russian army soldiers killed and economy destroyed etc.. then they win.

Putin needs to maintain their nation unity at all cost.. no matter what ,if they want to avoid another soviet union style collapse and calls for separation  in Russia.. And this can be obtained by only using their army if it can be 100% fully justified..and fully explained that
another Nation attacked them and that they need to defend itself.

Having people support is also extremely important for RUssia ,so people help the Government
defeat western sanctions and their attempts to isolate Russia.. Any government that lose
people support is a dead government. and will get civil wars and divided armies and bankrupt
economy and  cease to exist.. . Russia will defeat Kiev and without any army invasion.. this is what will happen if kiev continues its illegal criminal war for another year.

Karl Haushofer wrote:

Ghoster wrote:

Karl Haushofer wrote:I wrote two long posts about my thoughts of this war and how things look now and in the future in another forum. I will share them here as well.

First post:

Good post. You sum up the situation pretty well.

I wish I could be more optimistic for Novorossiya, but they're not on the winning side. IMO if NAF doesn't start responding to Ukrainian attacks adequately, then DPR/LPR governments will start to lose local support. No one even talks about the Minsk agreements seriously anymore. They were broken up completely by Ukraine since the very start.

Yes, and this is why I think they should surrender. Since they cannot win this war on their own and since Russia is not going to save them what's the point of continuing this madness?

I don't believe the Kiev junta would outright kill the civilian population if they surrender. They are going to hunt down anyone who has been cooperating with the LPR and DPR authorities and lots of innocent blood will be spilled and lots of innocent people will rot in prisons for the rest of their lives. But this is still better than have the whole cities destroyed with this long and painful attrition strategy of Kiev junta.

The DPR and LPR leadership and all the military personnel of the NAF will of course have to go to Russia before the surrender. They will not be spared from death if they stay.

Георгий Котенок wrote:"Valkyrie": after us - FRATERNAL RUSSIA!

PapaDragon wrote:

That is a lot of melodramatic BS that proves that you do not know first thing about war or what happens to the losers regardless if they are defeated or surrender.

PapaDragon wrote:
I have a counterproposal. How about ukrops surrender. Or better yet, how about whole thing continues at the present course. Donass may get reduced to ashes but it will be just the small part of much larger and infinitely more horrible hell  that will persist for decades to come and devour entire generations.

PapaDragon wrote:
It will be long, painful and absolutely horrific but it will have the benefit of turning life into absolute torment for millions of filthy scum who deserved it.

Nikander wrote:

sepheronx wrote:

Flagship Victory wrote:What's interesting is that back a couple of months ago if Maidan shells Donetsk with heavy artillery Putin would get up at 3 in the morning and complain about it. These days it's all business as usual and Putin does not say anything about it when Maidan shells Donetsk with heavy artillery. By now, I doubt Russia would complain if the US gives nukes to Ukraine and Maidan drops a nuke on Donetsk. What would Putin say? Oh, that's bad behavior from Russia's brother nation?

I read Russian news quite often, I highly doubt you do, as I have noticed that when you mentioned countless times that they don't report it, then I head on over to Tass news agency and see that they have reported it and complained about it, gives me full indication that you are lying.

I said a couple of weeks ago that this Flagship guy is a paid troll who's lying constantly and I stand by that. That little blurb about Assad is telling. He's not the only one also. Everyone who is spreading defeatism for no reason, saying that Putin is a traitor or that Donetsk and Lugansk republics should quit and any other crazy ideas is not pro-Russian. He is just pretending to be to turn people against the government.

Flagship Victory wrote:What's interesting is that back a couple of months ago if Maidan shells Donetsk with heavy artillery Putin would get up at 3 in the morning and complain about it. These days it's all business as usual and Putin does not say anything about it when Maidan shells Donetsk with heavy artillery. By now, I doubt Russia would complain if the US gives nukes to Ukraine and Maidan drops a nuke on Donetsk. What would Putin say? Oh, that's bad behavior from Russia's brother nation?

More than 10,000 cases of desertion have been registered in the Ukrainian Army since the outbreak of the Donbass war in April 2014, Ukrainian Vesti reported.

In 2014 the army suffered heavy desertion and nearly 30 percent of the servicemen called up in the first wave of mobilization (March 17) abandoned their positions, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said.

Ukrainian parliament Verkhovna Rada has announced six waves of mobilization so far. By the end of 2014 the strength of Ukrainian Armed Forces grew from 130,000 to 232,000.

Ukrainians have been protesting against the mobilization. They travel to work abroad or simply reside at their relatives' in other countries. Almost 1,3 million Ukrainian draftees live in Russia.

Since April 7, 2014 the Kiev authorities have been waging war against Donbass self-defense forces who rejected the legitimacy of the coup-imposed Ukrainian government and declared the independent republics of Donetsk and Lugansk.

Official figures estimate the number of victims to near 6,500. But the German intelligence reported of 50,000 victims in February 2015.

Khepesh wrote:New video from Artyom Grishanov, "Enemy at the Gates"

“Well, 55 Saxons have reached Ukraine. 20 will be converted for use as frontline medical evacuation vehicles and the rest – as armored command vehicles,” Yuri Biryukov said in a Facebook post Saturday.

“The Saxons cost us around 51,000 pounds apiece. With proper use we could be getting a whole lot of them. They are better than the (Russian-made) UAZ-452, or UAZ-469, aren’t they?” Biryukov added.

The purchase of a group of antiquated AT105 Saxon armored personnel carriers from the United Kingdom was hailed by Ukrainian leadership as a major boost to the country's military.

In March General Sir Richard Dannatt, who served as Britain’s Chief of the General Staff between 2006 and 2009, said he believed the Saxon armored vehicles were “quite useless.”

"My concern is the inadequate nature of these vehicles which I ordered out of British Army front line service when I was Commander in Chief Land Command 2005-2006. They were withdrawn from Iraq and never deployed in southern Afghanistan,” Dannatt told The Daily Telegraph.

The UK no longer uses the Saxon — but they are still utilized by countries including Nigeria and Bahrain for moving troops around.

Ukraine accepted delivery of 20 Saxon armored vehicles from Britain in February to be weaponized and put into action by the army.