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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #15

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    Cowboy's daughter
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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #15

    Post  Cowboy's daughter on Wed Jun 17, 2015 3:04 am

    auslander wrote:
    Cowboy's daughter wrote:
    auslander wrote:
    Cowboy's daughter wrote:
    Cahaba wrote:I see XJ220 is still yanking chains.

    Ugh. attack

    For me, I decided it wasn't worth me posting over there.

    I'm glad somebody is carrying water over there, but I don't even go over there & read, or seldom ever.

    Well, the trolls are pretty active here of late. Anyone taking that daily mail article as remotely true is living in another universe and yet we have almost two pages on it. Well done, trolls.

    I remember reading the article but don't remember what it was about. Embarassed

    My back (I figured out it's my ribs not my back.) are still attack

    Here in a little bit I'm going back to the doctor. cheers cry Neutral Here's hoping!

    I hope the sawbones fixes your back and you are good as new tonight.

    The article was about some supposed UAF female sniper who executed prisoners etc etc ad nauseum as usual. Of especial note was the photos of her and hubby. Nice blue plastic work sandals, hubby, let alone no field equipment of any kind on him besides a mismatched uniform of old Sov trousers and a German surplus blouse. She had pretty nifty 'I'm going shopping downtown' boots on, a repro Sov brass belt buckle and not much else besides military trousers for kit. Anyone who has ever served will get in to the post about 5 words and understand it is bovine scatology.  

    I remember that article now!

    OMG, my back & ribs aren't hurting. Thank God! & I got some pain med that maybe won't make me feel like a drunk zombie! I hated the ones I had, and had to be desperate to take even a half of one.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #15

    Post  PapaDragon on Wed Jun 17, 2015 3:16 am

    That sanctions renewal date is approaching rapidly and poor little ukrops and their sugardaddies still have nothing to present to media that even resembles NAF offensive...how sad Razz

    I am sure they will get their wish in the form of god old asskicking administered by NAF but the specific date of that activity will not be decided by ukrops.... Twisted Evil

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #15

    Post  auslander on Wed Jun 17, 2015 5:09 am

    Cowboy's daughter wrote: OMG, my back & ribs aren't hurting. Thank God! & I got some pain med that maybe won't make me feel like a drunk zombie! I hated the ones I had, and had to be desperate to take even a half of one.

    Great! Happy to hear that and happy to hear the new meds don't turn you zombieish.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #15

    Post  auslander on Wed Jun 17, 2015 5:13 am

    PapaDragon wrote:That sanctions renewal date is approaching rapidly and poor little ukrops and their sugardaddies still have nothing to present to media that even resembles NAF offensive...how sad Razz

    I am sure they will get their wish in the form of god old asskicking administered by NAF but the specific date of that activity will not be decided by ukrops.... Twisted Evil

    The sanctions will be renewed and would be renewed even if the NAF lines were voluntarily pulled back to Olmsk.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #15

    Post  auslander on Wed Jun 17, 2015 5:18 am

    whir wrote:
    auslander wrote:Well, the trolls are pretty active here of late. Anyone taking that daily mail article as remotely true is living in another universe and yet we have almost two pages on it. Well done, trolls
    I posted it not because of the alleged executions that can't be proven but for two small details that really need some attention like the peacemaker webpage, that is nothing more than a hit list; and the photo those anti-personnel metal flechettes fired from artillery rounds that are described as illegal according to humanitarian law.

    No, you posted it to show exactly what the article shows and says. You might fool some people but you and your multiple personalities don't fool me for an instant.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #15

    Post  auslander on Wed Jun 17, 2015 6:25 am

    Something very large hit just before 22:00 last night in the Kuibyshevsky district of Donetsk. Few details are available now, 10 hours after the hit, so I would aver that whatever it hit was serious for NAF. We will know more later today.

    Conjecture is the incoming round was either Tuchka or Pion. I await the OSCE report with breathless anticipation.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #15

    Post  sepheronx on Wed Jun 17, 2015 6:30 am

    auslander wrote:Something very large hit just before 22:00 last night in the Kuibyshevsky district of Donetsk. Few details are available now, 10 hours after the hit, so I would aver that whatever it hit was serious for NAF. We will know more later today.

    Conjecture is the incoming round was either Tuchka or Pion. I await the OSCE report with breathless anticipation.

    If they can get off their collective asses and use the media to their advantage, then people will start screaming even more from Europe to stop their support of Ukraine. But it is very hard to get decent footage or any media from what goes on their unless one constantly searches the Russian media, which most do not.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #15

    Post  Ivan the Colorado on Wed Jun 17, 2015 8:15 am

    sepheronx wrote:
    auslander wrote:Something very large hit just before 22:00 last night in the Kuibyshevsky district of Donetsk. Few details are available now, 10 hours after the hit, so I would aver that whatever it hit was serious for NAF. We will know more later today.

    Conjecture is the incoming round was either Tuchka or Pion. I await the OSCE report with breathless anticipation.

    If they can get off their collective asses and use the media to their advantage, then people will start screaming even more from Europe to stop their support of Ukraine.  But it is very hard to get decent footage or any media from what goes on their unless one constantly searches the Russian media, which most do not.
    I'm not sure how effective that will be, everybody's mind is already made up was reinforced by this conflict. You must know this too as you live in Ukraine-loving Canada. Everyone is convinced that Russia is evil, helping the Rebel scum, shooting down commercial aircraft, and so on and so forth. Nobody wants to hear how ethnic Russians AND Ukrainians are being murdered by Kiev in cold blood and their death toll FAR exceeds the dead from MH17. Makes me sick, but there is absolutely nothing I can do about it and very little anybody else or any other group can do something about this. Look at Graham Phillips for example, his work is superb, but people in the West shun and despise him.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #15

    Post  whir on Wed Jun 17, 2015 9:26 am

    bmpd.livejournal via Google Translate wrote:Интервью с секретарем Совбеза ДНР Александром Ходаковским о начале войны в Донбассе в 2014 году
    Interview with Security Council Secretary Alexander DNR Khodakovsky the beginning of the war in the Donbass in 2014
    June 16th, 12:19

    Last week, the situation has deteriorated in the Donbass, were fighting in Marinka on the outskirts of Donetsk, there are casualties on both sides. Such heavy fire Donetsk was not in February, mines hit the market, houses, only in the Donetsk dozens wounded. Under attack villages and Spartak, Telmanovo, Shirokino; Gorlovka have died, including children. The situation at the front, and how come to this nightmare, "Russian Reporter" discussed with the Secretary of Security Council of the NPT, one of the leaders of the armed protest of Donetsk Alexander Khodakovsky.

    What happens in Marinka? The truce frustrated? Who and where to come?

    No one anywhere. An escalation in this area. And the worst thing again subjected to massive bombardment of residential areas of our cities, people are dying, including children. But from a military point of view, nothing new has happened. Neither we nor the opponents are not changing significantly positions. Yatseniuk said the alleged attempt to attack our forces, but it is misinformation. In fact, even after the truce did not stop fighting. They are almost constantly around the perimeter of the boundary line. The clashes, say, in or near the village Shirokino Spartak are not inferior in strength. In March, there were numerous attempts to break Ukrainian nationalist battalion in Donetsk. Attempts from a military point of view, quite meaningless. The only way to define such a provocation - "reconnaissance in force", but also a stretch. All this is rather the creation of a permanent voltage tsealyu provoke us to take retaliatory action, accusing him of disrupting the Minsk Agreement. We DNI, our leader Alexander Zakharchenko repeatedly called for real and direct dialogue to real negotiations. But instead of the enemy - only escalate a dirty game, whose victims are civilians.  Continue reading.

    TASS wrote:Over 1,500 people gone missing in Kiev-controlled area of Donbas in 2015 — report
    World June 17, 10:22 UTC+3

    A search effort launched by Ukraine’s police on the territory of Donbas has located just 208 people

    MOSCOW, June 17. /TASS/. The number of citizens of towns and villages in the Kiev-controlled area of Donbas has reached more than 1,500 in the first half of 2015, the Donetsk region’s prosecutors said in a report on Wednesday.

    "This year, the number of people who have gone missing in the region remains significantly on the rise. As of June 1, 2015, their number is 1,592," said the report quoted by the Donetsk news agency.

    A search effort launched by Ukraine’s police on the territory of Donbas has located just 208 people. This is just 13% out of the overall number of those missing, the report reads.

    The increase in the number of missing people has been reported in Artemovsk (115), Selidovo (88), Slavyansk (82), Kramatorsk (69), Dzershinsk (61), Maryinsky district (69) and the Oktyabrsky district of Mariupol (66), the prosecutors said.
    These Donbas towns are currently under control of Ukraine's forces. Continue reading.

    TASS wrote:Ukraine Security Service bans public transport from crossing disengagement line in Donbas
    World June 17, 8:43 UTC+3

    Exceptions concern "nonscheduled transportation for certain organized groups of people (refugees, children for rehabilitation and recreation) on relevant permits

    KIEV, June 16. /TASS/. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said it has banned public passenger transport from crossing the disengagement line in Donbas (the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions).

    The ban is contained in an updated version of "The provisional procedure to control movement of persons, vehicles and cargoes [goods] across the disengagement line within the boundaries of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions."

    "Crossing the disengagement line by public passenger transport is prohibited, except for nonscheduled transportation for certain organized groups of people [refugees, children for rehabilitation and recreation] on relevant permits issued under a decision of the coordination centre," the document said.

    Six checkpoints: Lisichansk, Zaitsevo, Georgiyevka, Bugas, Gnutovo, Novoaidar will operate for crossing the disengagement line in Donbas inside vehicles. Checkpoints on the railroad will operate at the stations Krasny Liman, Konstantinovka, Pereyezdnaya and Volnovakha. Continue reading.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #15

    Post  JohninMK on Wed Jun 17, 2015 12:26 pm

    [quote="Cyberspec"]DNR will attack if Ukraine attacks Transnistria

    In the case of aggravation of the situation in Transnistria DNR army will be ready to support the forces of the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic. This was announced to reporters in Donetsk by the Foreign Minister Alexander Kofman. Aggravation of the situation, in his opinion, is inevitable (due to the appointment of Sakashvilli as Odesa governor)

    Nothing like a bit of moral support. Goodness knows how they could provide physical help, even the Russians are going to have a problem.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #15

    Post  whir on Wed Jun 17, 2015 1:14 pm

    JohninMK wrote:Nothing like a bit of moral support. Goodness knows how they could provide physical help, even the Russians are going to have a problem.
    To reach Tiraspol you don't need to go through Odessa, a landing somewhere between Bilgorod-Dnistrovsky and Tatarbunary could do the trick since both districts are sparsely populated.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #15

    Post  JohninMK on Wed Jun 17, 2015 1:34 pm

    whir wrote:
    JohninMK wrote:Nothing like a bit of moral support. Goodness knows how they could provide physical help, even the Russians are going to have a problem.
    To reach Tiraspol you don't need to go through Odessa, a landing somewhere between Bilgorod-Dnistrovsky and Tatarbunary could do the trick since both districts are sparsely populated.
    Ah, a 'traditional' commando operation then.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #15

    Post  Flagship Victory on Wed Jun 17, 2015 1:42 pm

    auslander wrote:
    PapaDragon wrote:That sanctions renewal date is approaching rapidly and poor little ukrops and their sugardaddies still have nothing to present to media that even resembles NAF offensive...how sad Razz

    I am sure they will get their wish in the form of god old asskicking administered by NAF but the specific date of that activity will not be decided by ukrops.... Twisted Evil

    The sanctions will be renewed and would be renewed even if the NAF lines were voluntarily pulled back to Olmsk.

    Ditto.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #15

    Post  Flagship Victory on Wed Jun 17, 2015 1:43 pm

    auslander wrote:Something very large hit just before 22:00 last night in the Kuibyshevsky district of Donetsk. Few details are available now, 10 hours after the hit, so I would aver that whatever it hit was serious for NAF. We will know more later today.

    Conjecture is the incoming round was either Tuchka or Pion. I await the OSCE report with breathless anticipation.

    I think it is a Pion shell. A few days ago Pions were seen transported to Donetsk. Oh, and don't expect OSCE which is a bunch of do goody Swedish guys and gals to say anything about it.

    facebook truthaboutukraine reports Pions are used for the first time

    https://www.facebook.com/TruthfromUkraine

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #15

    Post  whir on Wed Jun 17, 2015 2:11 pm

    JohninMK wrote:Ah, a 'traditional' commando operation then.
    Take a look at Rasseika Resort, it's a bit too south but it represents quite well the coastline in that part of Ukraine.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #15

    Post  PapaDragon on Wed Jun 17, 2015 2:23 pm

    auslander wrote:
    PapaDragon wrote:That sanctions renewal date is approaching rapidly and poor little ukrops and their sugardaddies still have nothing to present to media that even resembles NAF offensive...how sad  Razz

    I am sure they will get their wish in the form of god old asskicking administered by NAF but the specific date of that activity will not be decided by ukrops....  Twisted Evil  

    The sanctions will be renewed and would be renewed
    even if the NAF lines were voluntarily pulled back to Olmsk.

    I agree 100%.

    But I believe there is a difference whether EU sanctions are renewed based on some media BS about "Russian offensive" or if they are officially renewed out of pure subservience.

    It has more to do with Russia dotting the i's and crossing the t's than realistically expecting sanctions to be withdrawn.

    And this would be why ukrops are ratcheting heat more and more as deadline approaches. They want to manufacture situation on the ground to support media narrative to further validate sanctions extension.      

    We all know that at the moment it makes no difference whether there is proper cover for extending sanctions or not, they will be extended either way. But it will become relevant down the road. It's about letting EU compromise and harm themselves further.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #15

    Post  whir on Wed Jun 17, 2015 2:27 pm

    Патриотические Силы wrote:ATO use weapons high power truce. The result of the shelling. 06/17/2015


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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #15

    Post  PapaDragon on Wed Jun 17, 2015 2:59 pm

    I am not a big fan of this author and there is plenty of BS in this article but some good points were made also:


    EU Must Face the Harsh Realities of Ukraine Conflict

       No compromise between Kiev and Donbass rebels seems possible
       Political part of Minsk 2 seems deader than ever
       US and Russia seem perfectly content with a frozen conflict for the time being

    What EU can do is start talking to Russia, strengthen the practical-technical side of Minsk 2 and try and prevent the outbreak of full scale war when the agreement is finally (and inevitably) buried


    http://russia-insider.com/en/harsh-realities-ukraine/ri8089

    Dmitri Trenin

    Four months after the Minsk II accords, the Ukraine crisis continues to simmer, with occasional violent eruptions.

    The ceasefire in Donbass has not prevented some 1,000 people from losing their lives since February, adding to the previous fatality count of more than 5,000. Some of the heavy weapons that both sides should have pulled back from the line of contact are still positioned close to that line, and are active.

    Despite some technical contacts with the participation of both Kiev and Donbass, political dialogue on the “modalities” of local elections has not started. Kiev has balked at issuing pardon and amnesty to those it still terms “terrorists.” Exchanges of prisoners and hostages have taken place, but some are definitely still being held against their will.

    Some humanitarian supplies are managing to get through to the region but no convoys are allowed to cross the ceasefire lines. “Full restoration of social and economic transfers,” including pensions and taxes, has not happened. The reality is more of a tightening economic blockade.

    The restoration of Kiev’s control of the Ukrainian-Russian border, which was supposed to begin right after the local elections and be completed after the “full political regulation” of the situation in Donbass by the end of 2015, has been blocked by complete lack of progress on the political front.

    There has been no evidence of a pullout of foreign forces and weapons and disarmament of illegal groups. Russia’s support for the “people’s republics” is unwavering. Constitutional reform in Ukraine aimed at drawing up a new basic law for the country by the end of 2015, even if it proceeds, will go on without Donbass.

    This is a dismal record by any standard, but compared to the numerous and highly authoritative recent predictions from Kiev, picked up in Brussels and Washington, of an imminent Russian invasion, the situation is less bad than feared by many. Moreover, the month of May has seen some diplomatic activity between the West and Russia, including the visits by German Chancellor Angela Merkel to Moscow and by US Secretary of State John Kerry to Sochi.

    For the first time in many months, Russian President Vladimir Putin was engaged face-to-face by a senior member of the Obama administration. These conversations, particularly Kerry’s, have provoked speculations about a climb-down from the 15-months-old confrontation between Russia and the West over Ukraine.

    This, unfortunately, is wishful thinking. The most that has been achieved in Sochi is a degree of understanding between Washington and Moscow about the dangers of allowing the conflict to boil over and potentially to widen. Both the Russians and the Americans sought assurances from the other party that they are not pursuing a military solution.

    The Obama Administration, focusing on the president’s foreign policy legacy, was also interested in getting Russia’s continued cooperation on the Iranian nuclear issue, and possibly also Syria and the Islamic State (IS).

    The last thing Obama needs is a conflict in Ukraine getting out of control, confronting his administration with the risk of deeper and more direct US involvement. The Kremlin, for its part, having protected the rebel-held enclave in Donbass, is preparing now to sit and watch economic hardship in Ukraine lead to social tensions and ultimately to political upheavals overthrowing the Maidan-installed leadership in Kiev. Freezing the conflict for now looks like the best option for both the United States and Russia.

    A frozen conflict in Donbass is not what the European Union wants. Europe insists on full implementation of the Minsk accords. However, it needs to face up to the harsh realities.

    Donbass rebels want a confederal status within Ukraine, complete with a veto on the country’s potential NATO membership. Kiev wants to crush the rebellion, punish its leaders and activists, and end Russian interference in Ukraine. No compromise between the two seems possible.

    Minsk II is definitely headed for a train wreck. Its likely failure, however, must not be allowed to lead to a resumption of the large-scale hostilities that we saw last summer and winter.

    To avert looming disaster, the parties to the Minsk agreement and the United States need to focus on those elements of it which can be implemented: stabilizing the ceasefire; pulling back heavy weapons; and exchanging prisoners. This means in practice much tighter control of the forces physically confronting each other across the line of contact.

    Russia, of course, will have to support Donbass economically and financially, but that burden will be light compared to the burden that others will have to carry to support Ukraine and avert its meltdown. As for the rest of Minsk II, the agreement should be converted into an open-ended diplomatic process, which might come in handy when and if conditions on the ground change.

    Four decades after Helsinki and a quarter-century after the fall of the Berlin Wall, Europe has entered a new period of insecurity. This is not just one crisis, however acute, which can be resolved in short order, so that the situation returns to “normal.” Things will not be fixed quickly. Behind the Ukraine crisis looms the Russia problem, which despite a number of attempts, was not solved by means of the country’s inclusion into the Euro-Atlantic security system.

    Ironically, the problem can hardly be solved by means of Russia’s exclusion from the rest of Europe; this is a recipe for a continued standoff. No “grand bargain” between Russia and the West is even conceivable at this point. European security is at an impasse.

    While no new “end state” of European security is visible at this time, things will likely have to play themselves out. The Baltic States and Poland should feel safe: Russia is not after them.

    New crises, however, are possible elsewhere – for example in Transnistria, where the Russian-protected mini-state may be squeezed hard by Ukraine and Moldova. In the bigger scheme of things, Ukraine’s domestic evolution will be of prime importance. Will the country finally be able to reform itself or will the country’s elites, which have not changed much since the Maidan revolution, use the conflict in Donbass as an excuse not to?

    Finally, US concerns about alleged Russian violations of the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) might return US missiles to Europe, so that they can target Russian strategic assets at close range. Should that happen, a new Euromissile crisis will be inevitable.

    It may be that things will get worse before they get better. If so, then rather than thinking about some grand architecture for the future, it would make more sense now to think about stepping away from the brink.

    Pathways leading toward safer ground include stabilizing the situation in Donbass; preventing a new crisis in Transnistria; using confidence-building measures and direct lines of communication to prevent accidents and avoid miscalculation. For the United States, Russia is now Europe’s problem to deal with. The Europeans need to rise to the challenge and come up with a strategy of conflict management, prevention and eventually resolution. Their own security depends on it.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #15

    Post  PapaDragon on Wed Jun 17, 2015 3:03 pm

    pwnd   Trouble in paradise:


    Ukraine's Seizure of Ostchem Assets Threatens to Expose Government Infighting

    Ukraine’s Interior Ministry has seized the real estate assets of Ostchem, owned by oligarch Dmytro Firtash, as part of its “war on oligarchs”. However, the move could expose a rift within the Ukrainian government.


    Mike Wheatley

    http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/ukraines-seizure-ostchem-assets-threatens-expose-government-infighting/ri8097

    The Ukrainian government has imposed an asset freeze on Ostchem, the largest chemicals, gas and energy firm in the country. Ostchem is owned by the Ukrainian oligarch Dmytro Firtash, one of the country’s richest men, who is currently wanted by the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) on suspicion of violating laws on bribery in the course of his foreign business deals.

    A report in BNE IntelliNews said the Ukrainian interior ministry has filed a court request to seize 110 Ostchem-owned real estate assets, adding that 46 have already been seized. In addition, the Ukrainian authorities have launched an investigation into a $10 billion lawsuit that the gas company Rosukrenergo, a subsidiary of Ostchem, won against the state energy company Naftogaz in 2010. Ukraine’s Interior Minister Arsen Avakov alleged that officials of Naftogaz were ordered to lose the case deliberately by the government of ex-president Viktor Yanyukovich, and that it amounted to “phenomenally criminal collusion”.

    Firtash, who recently won a battle against extradition to the U.S. from Austria, his current residence, later appeared on a Ukrainian TV channel he owns to refute the allegations, saying Kiev was using its “war against oligarchs” as a smokescreen to divert attention away from its own economic failings and the war against separatists in the east.

    “When they saw that they can’t win the war and realized that something still needs to be done, they started this so-called fight with the oligarchs,” Firtash said. “This isn’t just one…five people, it’s thousands of people…who are creating jobs, who fill the state coffers, and who develop entire regions.”

    “Regrettably, we are now fighting against the government,” Firtash complained.

    Political infighting?

    BNE IntelliNews suggests that the case threatens to expose infighting between different factions of the Ukrainian government, which is using its war on oligarchs to hide the fact that senior politicians are scrapping amongst themselves over the country’s spoils.

    The article points out that Firtash has “declared a personal war on the Yatsenyuk government” despite apparently allying with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko. It points to a meeting between Firtash, Poroshenko and his main adversary in the Presidental elections, Vitaly Klichko, that took place March 2014. It’s alleged that at the meeting Firtash helped convince Klichko not to oppose Poroshenko in the elections in return for legal protection.

    But, although the president is apparently on board, Yatsenyuk and his People’s Front party made no such agreement with Firtash and remain determined to take him down.

    The government’s “deoligarchization” campaign isn’t just focused on Firtash, however. Earlier this year, Poroshenko removed billionaire Ihor Kolomoisky as a regional governor as lawmakers moved to take control of lucrative state energy companies away from him.

    More recently, authorities honed in on Rinat Akhmetov, Ukraine’s richest man and a longtime backer of ex-President Viktor Yanukovych. Last month, prosecutors announced plans to cancel his DTEK energy holding’s controversial acquisition of a top electricity generator, saying that the process was uncompetitive.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #15

    Post  PapaDragon on Wed Jun 17, 2015 3:07 pm


    Russia Calls Ukraine's Bluff on $3 Billion Loan

    In comments that appear to contradict Poroshenko’s description of the Russian loan as a “bribe”, Ukrainian finance minister Jaresko admitted that Ukraine is liable to pay the debt


    Alexander Mercouris

    http://russia-insider.com/en/business/russia-calls-ukraines-bluff-3-billion-loan/ri8065

    It appears that Russia, by challenging Ukraine to make clear its intentions about the $3 billion debt it owes Russia, has successfully called Ukraine’s bluff.

    Ukrainian finance minister Jaresko is now reported to have admitted Ukraine’s liability to pay this debt. Although Jaresko did not say that Ukraine now admits this debt is public debt as opposed to private debt and will not default on it, that is the logic of what she is saying.

    Jaresko has admitted that Ukraine is trying to get Russia to agree to restructuring this debt.  Her precise words were:

    ”We acknowledge this loan of $3 billion as well as any other European obligations. I don’t hide our intentions to restructure this loan. I’m doing everything I can.”

    The logic of these words is that Ukraine does not intend to default on this debt. There would be no sense in seeking an agreed restructuring if it did. By equating this debt with Ukraine’s European debt, Jaresko appears to be admitting that it is public debt, like the European debt.

    While we cannot know for sure, the likelihood is that following the storm whipped up by Poroshenko’s comment that Russia’s loan to Ukraine was a “bribe”, the IMF in confidential discussions warned Ukraine that it would not support Ukraine if it defaulted on this loan (as to why the IMF might do this, see our discussion in “Poroshenko Calls Russia’s $3 Billion Loan A ‘Bribe’”, Russia Insider, 16th June 2015).

    One thing that suggests that what caused Ukraine to back down was a warning from the IMF is the complete failure of the Western media to report Poroshenko’s comment or the Russian reaction to it.

    If the IMF intended to support Ukraine’s decision to default on the Russian loan, then past experience suggests there would have been strategically placed leaks in the Western media saying as much, together with editorials in the Western press backing the IMF and Ukraine for the stand they were taking.  

    That after all is what happened prior to Ukraine’s decision to threaten to default on payment of the debts it owes to its private creditors.  See for example this editorial in the Financial Times (“Ukraine’s creditors must share the country’s pain”), published just before the IMF’s backing for Ukraine’s plan for a debt moratorium was made public.

    Though the Russians look like they have won this round, this is hardly the end of the story.  

    Payment of the debt to Russia is going to be deeply unpopular and controversial with the Maidan movement. Some of Ukraine’s Western backers are also going to be unhappy. Some of them are already making clear their anger at the limited help (as they see it) that Ukraine is getting.

    As the weeks and months go by, and as Ukraine’s economic crisis gets worse, it is a virtual certainty that this issue will be revisited.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #15

    Post  JohninMK on Wed Jun 17, 2015 3:24 pm

    Not sure what this means. Sometimes Bausurin seems to over exaggerate.

    MOSCOW, June 17. /TASS/. The reconnaissance units of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic have identified the arrival of another 40 pieces of military equipment and some 300 troops at the frontline, the spokesman for the unrecognized republic's defense ministry has told TASS.

    "The Donetsk republic’s intelligence groups keep registering redeployments of Ukrainian manpower and materiel. Two multiple rocket launchers Grad have been moved from Volnovakha to Andreyevka. Five multiple rocket launchers have been moved eastwards from Kurakhovo," the Donetsk News Agency quotes Basurin as saying.

    In the village of Ostroye 19 Grad launchers and four Uragan launchers have been deployed, and four self-propelled artillery systems MSTA-2S and three systems Giatsint-B have been spotted in the village of Kleban-Byk.

    "In the area of Andreyevka the location has been established of three Grad multiple rocket launchers. Up to 300 troops have arrived in the town," Basurin said.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #15

    Post  JohninMK on Wed Jun 17, 2015 3:47 pm

    This came out 10 minutes ago. Taken at face value its the US/Russians ganging up on Kiev. We will have to see what Washington says about it. If correct it is Nuland being brought to heel by Kerry.

    MOSCOW, June 17. /TASS/. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin and US Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland held a meeting in Berlin on Wednesday during which they exchanged views on prospects of settling the crisis in Ukraine, Russia’s Foreign Ministry said.

    The officials "confirmed their joint support for the full implementation of the February 12 Minsk agreements", the ministry said.

    During their last meeting in Moscow on May 18, Karasin and Nuland discussed a wide range of issues relating to the Ukrainian conflict and exchanged views on possibilities for bilateral cooperation between Russia and the United States to facilitate a political settlement of the current crisis situation in Ukraine’s east.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #15

    Post  Khepesh on Wed Jun 17, 2015 5:02 pm

    JohninMK wrote:Not sure what this means. Sometimes Bausurin seems to over exaggerate.

    MOSCOW, June 17. /TASS/. The reconnaissance units of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic have identified the arrival of another 40 pieces of military equipment and some 300 troops at the frontline, the spokesman for the unrecognized republic's defense ministry has told TASS.

    "The Donetsk republic’s intelligence groups keep registering redeployments of Ukrainian manpower and materiel. Two multiple rocket launchers Grad have been moved from Volnovakha to Andreyevka. Five multiple rocket launchers have been moved eastwards from Kurakhovo," the Donetsk News Agency quotes Basurin as saying.

    In the village of Ostroye 19 Grad launchers and four Uragan launchers have been deployed, and four self-propelled artillery systems MSTA-2S and three systems Giatsint-B have been spotted in the village of Kleban-Byk.

    "In the area of Andreyevka the location has been established of three Grad multiple rocket launchers. Up to 300 troops have arrived in the town," Basurin said.
    Perhaps underestimating. ukrops have a battery of BM-30 near Kurakhovo and it is possible that the attack on the chemical plant yesterday was by two thermobaric missiles fired in salvo. The warhead weight of two 9M55S is the same as one Tochka-U

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #15

    Post  JohninMK on Wed Jun 17, 2015 6:37 pm

    Khepesh wrote:
    JohninMK wrote:Not sure what this means. Sometimes Bausurin seems to over exaggerate.

    MOSCOW, June 17. /TASS/. The reconnaissance units of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic have identified the arrival of another 40 pieces of military equipment and some 300 troops at the frontline, the spokesman for the unrecognized republic's defense ministry has told TASS.

    "The Donetsk republic’s intelligence groups keep registering redeployments of Ukrainian manpower and materiel. Two multiple rocket launchers Grad have been moved from Volnovakha to Andreyevka. Five multiple rocket launchers have been moved eastwards from Kurakhovo," the Donetsk News Agency quotes Basurin as saying.

    In the village of Ostroye 19 Grad launchers and four Uragan launchers have been deployed, and four self-propelled artillery systems MSTA-2S and three systems Giatsint-B have been spotted in the village of Kleban-Byk.

    "In the area of Andreyevka the location has been established of three Grad multiple rocket launchers. Up to 300 troops have arrived in the town," Basurin said.
    Perhaps underestimating. ukrops have a  battery of BM-30 near Kurakhovo and it is possible that the attack on the chemical plant yesterday was by two thermobaric missiles fired in salvo. The warhead weight of two 9M55S is the same as one Tochka-U
    Hi Khepesh, good to see your name again.

    The photo I have seen shows a big crater, aren't thermobaric weapons primarily surface blast devices?

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #15

    Post  Flagship Victory on Wed Jun 17, 2015 6:44 pm

    What arms does Ukraine buy from Russia? Kornets? Ukraine has never bought Kornets but I reckon Ukraine needs to buy lots of Kornets from Russia to fight insurgents yes?

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