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    Russian Economy General News: #5

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    collegeboy16
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #5

    Post  collegeboy16 on Fri May 15, 2015 6:56 pm

    hah, we're 46 Laughing . more like 60.

    max steel
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #5

    Post  max steel on Fri May 15, 2015 11:12 pm

    higurashihougi wrote:Not really relevant but...

    http://sputniknews.com/business/20150514/1022132502.html

    Russia advanced to 26th place in the Human Capital Report 2015 index, beating out South Korea overall and Japan among 15-25 year olds.


    According to that same report Ukraine jumped from 86th to 31st place , so either this report is inadequate or rest of the world's rankings got worse . Very Happy Laughing

    Are you on faqcebook higure ?

    @Sepheronx by what name you're commenting on zerohedge ?

    AlfaT8
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #5

    Post  AlfaT8 on Sat May 16, 2015 12:29 am

    max steel wrote:
    higurashihougi wrote:Not really relevant but...

    http://sputniknews.com/business/20150514/1022132502.html

    Russia advanced to 26th place in the Human Capital Report 2015 index, beating out South Korea overall and Japan among 15-25 year olds.


    According to that same report Ukraine jumped from 86th to 31st place , so either this report is inadequate or rest of the world's rankings got worse . Very Happy Laughing

    Are you on faqcebook higure ?

    @Sepheronx  by what name you're commenting on zerohedge ?

    The hell, the only way that makes sense is if they added in all the poor kids that are being drafted to the Ukr. Army, which also means there is going to be a big drop in there ranking later.

    Neutrality
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #5

    Post  Neutrality on Sat May 16, 2015 1:46 am

    Other great news from Russia: http://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/62099/

    Kazan (Tatarstan) just opened a brand new factory for producing composite materials (carbon fibre). Major points:

    -Production of composite materials in Russia will increase by fourfold thanks to this new factory.
    -In 2025 this factory alone will be able to cover 7% of global demand.

    It seems to me that Kazan is one of the fastest growing cities in Russia with high tech. industries.

    sepheronx
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #5

    Post  sepheronx on Sat May 16, 2015 1:51 am

    max steel wrote:
    higurashihougi wrote:Not really relevant but...

    http://sputniknews.com/business/20150514/1022132502.html

    Russia advanced to 26th place in the Human Capital Report 2015 index, beating out South Korea overall and Japan among 15-25 year olds.


    According to that same report Ukraine jumped from 86th to 31st place , so either this report is inadequate or rest of the world's rankings got worse . Very Happy Laughing

    Are you on faqcebook higure ?

    @Sepheronx  by what name you're commenting on zerohedge ?

    I don't comment. I simply read.

    kvs
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #5

    Post  kvs on Sat May 16, 2015 3:39 am

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-15/dear-bureau-labor-statistics-about-those-plunging-gasoline-prices



    In the US the inflation rate is adjusted away as above. In Russia you have the exact opposite. The CBR sees inflation
    where there is none.

    sepheronx
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #5

    Post  sepheronx on Sat May 16, 2015 4:50 am

    Apparently gas prices didn't change in Russia as Gazprom, Rosneft, Bashneft and others were starting to export their petrol at high costs and making good money. Government stepped in and told them that they need to concentrate on domestic sales to reduce overall prices.

    Dunno if that changed anything though.

    higurashihougi
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #5

    Post  higurashihougi on Sat May 16, 2015 8:35 am

    max steel wrote:Are you on faqcebook higure ?

    I do. Same avatar, Vietnamese version of the name higurashihougi.

    BTW, export of Poroshenko from Ukraina to Russia increased 8 fold during the first 4 months of 2015. 7,300 tons of Poroshenko Meat has been exported from Ua to Ru.

    http://www.accbud.ua/news/id/eksport-ukrainskoj-svininy-v-rossiju-stremitelno-vyros

    So that's how sanction works, eh ? Very Happy

    Viktor
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #5

    Post  Viktor on Sat May 16, 2015 11:29 pm

    A bit smaller drop than expected thumbsup

    Russia's GDP fell by two percent

    Earlier, Minister of Economic Development of Russia Alexei Ulyukayev estimated decline in the Russian economy in January-March at 2.2 percent.

    Karl Haushofer
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #5

    Post  Karl Haushofer on Sat May 16, 2015 11:32 pm

    Viktor wrote:A bit smaller drop than expected  thumbsup

    Russia's GDP fell by two percent

    Earlier, Minister of Economic Development of Russia Alexei Ulyukayev estimated decline in the Russian economy in January-March at 2.2 percent.
    Do you think Russia can return to growth later this year?

    sepheronx
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #5

    Post  sepheronx on Sat May 16, 2015 11:34 pm

    Karl Haushofer wrote:
    Viktor wrote:A bit smaller drop than expected  thumbsup

    Russia's GDP fell by two percent

    Earlier, Minister of Economic Development of Russia Alexei Ulyukayev estimated decline in the Russian economy in January-March at 2.2 percent.
    Do you think Russia can return to growth later this year?

    Only in 4th quarter I would gather. Next year is where the growth will happen.

    Viktor
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #5

    Post  Viktor on Sat May 16, 2015 11:38 pm

    Karl Haushofer wrote:
    Viktor wrote:A bit smaller drop than expected  thumbsup

    Russia's GDP fell by two percent

    Earlier, Minister of Economic Development of Russia Alexei Ulyukayev estimated decline in the Russian economy in January-March at 2.2 percent.
    Do you think Russia can return to growth later this year?

    Without a doubt. Just during 2014 Putin signed about 1 trillion $ worth long term contracts and just recently yet another 360 billion $ and there is much more to come.

    It was extremly important for Russia to survive this initial period until its economy reoriented towards import substitution and the East.

    Ministry of Industry: industrial engineering developed in the framework of sectoral plans for import substitution

    Import substitution in full swing.

    Ministry of Industry and Trade has identified priority areas for the creation of engineering centers at institutions of higher education on the basis of the approved 20 sectoral action plans for import substitution in the industry.

    Karl Haushofer
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #5

    Post  Karl Haushofer on Sun May 17, 2015 12:20 am

    Viktor wrote:
    Karl Haushofer wrote:
    Viktor wrote:A bit smaller drop than expected  thumbsup

    Russia's GDP fell by two percent

    Earlier, Minister of Economic Development of Russia Alexei Ulyukayev estimated decline in the Russian economy in January-March at 2.2 percent.
    Do you think Russia can return to growth later this year?

    Without a doubt. Just during 2014 Putin signed about 1 trillion $ worth long term contracts and just recently yet another 360 billion $ and there is much more to come.

    It was extremly important for Russia to survive this initial period until its economy reoriented towards import substitution and the East.

    Ministry of Industry: industrial engineering developed in the framework of sectoral plans for import substitution

    Import substitution in full swing.

    Ministry of Industry and Trade has identified priority areas for the creation of engineering centers at institutions of higher education on the basis of the approved 20 sectoral action plans for import substitution in the industry.
    I have been wondering about the reorientation of the Russian economy to the east. I think it needs to be done, but how much it will cost?

    Most of Russia's population is in the western part of the country. Moscow and St.Petersburg are connected to Europe, not to China, Japan and Korea. Geographically Europe is a much more natural economic partner for Russia then Asia, but politics are in the way right now.

    In order to pivot to the east the Russian economy needs new infrastructure, new transport routes etc.

    Austin
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #5

    Post  Austin on Mon May 18, 2015 10:24 am

    Is bank lending credit greater than that of GDP is good or bad thing

    http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FS.AST.DOMS.GD.ZS

    I see russian lending rate is low as 48 % while even for India it is 77 %

    Larger credit base equal to cheaper credit , So Russian bank should increase the credit base.

    KoTeMoRe
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #5

    Post  KoTeMoRe on Mon May 18, 2015 10:57 am

    Austin wrote:Is bank lending credit greater than that of GDP is good or bad thing

    http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FS.AST.DOMS.GD.ZS

    I see russian lending rate is low as 48 % while even for India it is 77 %

    Larger credit base equal to cheaper credit , So Russian bank should increase the credit base.

    It isn't bad, it's conservative. Higher lending rate augments volatility. And Russia's NPL (6%) are low nominally albeit rather higher in percentage than Western. Why restart the whole Ponzi scheme nightmares of the 90's?

    Russia needs to be conservative until the institutions are strong enough to take action and protect the SMB's from predatory lending. Better, Russians themselves fear credit like the Communist Party. It is better that way sofar.

    kvs
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #5

    Post  kvs on Mon May 18, 2015 2:26 pm

    Russia needs the CBR to set the lending rate to under 5%. Suffocating borrowing in Russia is suicidal and
    not conservative. Volatility comes from having to many little banks that can go under at any time. But
    that is not the main problem in Russia. Even rock solid Sberbank can't do its job since the lowest corporate
    lending rate is 8.5%. Companies require banks to function properly. Either they shop for venture capital,
    a very underdeveloped market in Russia, or they shop for bank loans. Without access to capital, talk of
    import substitution and growth is so much hot air.

    Neutrality
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #5

    Post  Neutrality on Mon May 18, 2015 4:03 pm

    Lending rate should scare off potential borrowers who wouldn't be able to pay off the borrowed amount. That is alot more disastrous than the current problem. That's how the housing market collapsed in the US and triggered the crisis in 2008.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #5

    Post  kvs on Mon May 18, 2015 6:23 pm

    Neutrality wrote:Lending rate should scare off potential borrowers who wouldn't be able to pay off the borrowed amount. That is alot more disastrous than the current problem. That's how the housing market collapsed in the US and triggered the crisis in 2008.

    You are missing the target.  Sub prime mortage rates have absolutely nothing to do with my point.
    Sub prime lending was basically pay almost no interest the first 12 months and then see the full 4%.
    If only Russians could even see 4%.  Instead they see more than twice and I am talking about business
    operations and not housing.   These are not the same thing.  

    Russian companies have been forced to raise capital offshore thanks to the monetarist true believers in
    the CBR.  Offshore borrowing could be had for 4% and less.   Until a few years ago the CBR rate was over 10%.
    Russia is a long way away from QE and excessively cheap capital.   There is no chance of any bubble formation
    and in fact it is the opposite.   The excessive interest rates are crushing Russian development.

    Neutrality
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #5

    Post  Neutrality on Mon May 18, 2015 6:31 pm

    Wasn't specifically talking about mortgages. That was just an example. I suspect businesses not being able to make the payments due to insolvency brings a much greater risk.

    medo
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #5

    Post  medo on Mon May 18, 2015 9:24 pm

    Actually it is better not to take too many credits, only when necessary. It is far better to invest your profits into development. Russia have quite big foreign exchange surplus and using it for domestic researches and development is investment. Maybe financing through credits is slower, but doesn't place traps in future, because all credits have to be payed with interests. Russia is slowly paying off their credits and low or no credits make your economy more concurent, because there is low or no credit in the price for product.

    sepheronx
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #5

    Post  sepheronx on Mon May 18, 2015 9:36 pm

    http://rt.com/business/259669-tool-launch-sanctions-russia/

    So ib other words, using open source data, they are going to make it harder for investors.

    Oh well, investors are a pain anyway. Grow at your own pace.

    That said, credit is good and bad. Some companies barely survive and credit just prolongs their demise. Others use credit to start a business or expand a business. If it is too high, it cuts into profit and makes it very hard financially to start one or expand. Recent CBR decision to increase reserves rather than lowering the interest rates is garbage. They better lower it soon or import substitution wont happen.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #5

    Post  kvs on Mon May 18, 2015 10:34 pm

    medo wrote:Actually it is better not to take too many credits, only when necessary. It is far better to invest your profits into development. Russia have quite big foreign exchange surplus and using it for domestic researches and development is investment. Maybe financing through credits is slower, but doesn't place traps in future, because all credits have to be payed with interests. Russia is slowly paying off their credits and low or no credits make your economy more concurent, because there is low or no credit in the price for product.

    Regular corporate operations require credits to function. You are confusing long term debt with short term debt.
    Your constraint imposes a catch 22 on Russian business. You want them to use their profits to invest, but they
    need to invest first before they can get those profits. That is the real world and not the Mickey Mouse world
    yapped about by politicians who always compare the economy to some corner store run by a family. A corner
    mom and pop shop does not need to borrow to introduce new production lines and to change its market focus.
    It has no relevance for either big business or for macroeconomics.

    New business startups require capital. They can't invest any profits since they have none. We are clearly
    not discussing the same topic. I am not talking about easy money for the Russian government to build up
    long term debt.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #5

    Post  sepheronx on Tue May 19, 2015 6:47 am

    http://www.gazeta.ru/business/news/2015/05/18/n_7206645.shtml

    So....did banks record a growth but 17B rubles less than last year or did they lose 17B rubles this year compared to a growth from last year? After looking at the figures total, they are far from hurting. And I am not entirely sad for banks losing money either, since they are major part of the initial problem to begin with.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #5

    Post  Neutrality on Tue May 19, 2015 11:52 am

    sepheronx wrote:http://www.gazeta.ru/business/news/2015/05/18/n_7206645.shtml

    So....did banks record a growth but 17B rubles less than last year or did they lose 17B rubles this year compared to a growth from last year?  After looking at the figures total, they are far from hurting.  And I am not entirely sad for banks losing money either, since they are major part of the initial problem to begin with.

    Why wouldn't you be worried about banks losing money? There are people's savings in there and where else would businesses get money from?

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #5

    Post  KoTeMoRe on Tue May 19, 2015 12:05 pm

    sepheronx wrote:http://www.gazeta.ru/business/news/2015/05/18/n_7206645.shtml

    So....did banks record a growth but 17B rubles less than last year or did they lose 17B rubles this year compared to a growth from last year?  After looking at the figures total, they are far from hurting.  And I am not entirely sad for banks losing money either, since they are major part of the initial problem to begin with.

    It's a bit puzzling because they have upped the provisions for losses for about 27bln, yet they lost 17 bln last year. Is this the typical, we lost 3 but here you have four?


    Anyway the losses seem rather modest (350 million USD) and seem to be a conglomerate of issues, from NPL's, defaults, capital flight etc.

    Bear in mind this is for 4 months...

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