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    S-300/400/500 News [Russian Strategic Air Defense] #1

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    Re: S-300/400/500 News [Russian Strategic Air Defense] #1

    Post  GarryB on Sun Mar 31, 2013 9:39 am

    There is also a political aspect to many of the deals... a deal for Vietnam IMHO would be on good terms because they are a good customer and a friend. A purchase for another country will be on different terms.

    Also keep in mind that there is a lot of support equipment and of course spares that will be included in some contracts, though not needed in others.

    A brand new system will need integration into the command structure and communications network. An add on system might include upgrades of previously bought systems.

    One country might buy a huge number of missiles so they are ready for conflict, another country might only buy missiles as they need them.

    Generally exported material gives the Russian maker a higher profit margin than a domestic purchase...


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    Re: S-300/400/500 News [Russian Strategic Air Defense] #1

    Post  Austin on Thu Apr 04, 2013 7:41 pm

    Did Star Wars Help End the Cold War? Soviet Response to the SDI Program

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    Re: S-300/400/500 News [Russian Strategic Air Defense] #1

    Post  Sujoy on Sat Apr 06, 2013 9:13 am

    Approximate cost of S -400

    http://russiandefpolicy.wordpress.com/2013/04/05/whats-it-cost/
    What’s It Cost?

    A reader recently asked:

    What’s the cost of one division of the S-400 for Russia and for foreign customers?

    Let’s call it a battalion (дивизион). We’ll start with exports (for which there is actually data). And we proceed from what was paid for the S-300.

    Russia’s planned sale of the S-300PMU1 to Iran reportedly involved the transfer of five “battalion sets” for $800 million. Some sources said as much as $1-1.2 billion.

    Let’s guess the “battalion set” has three firing batteries, with two launchers per, for a total of 30 TELs, 120+ missiles, and all associated radars, fire control systems, and vehicles.

    If $800 million is accurate, the price for one battalion was $160 million. The price for one S-400 system, four missiles on a TEL, was roughly $27 million.

    This isn’t unlike what the Chinese paid for the S-300 in the 1990s and 2000s. According to Sinodefence.com, they bought battalions for between $25 and $60 million at different times under different contracts.

    That done, we make the leap from the S-300 price to the S-400 price.

    A couple years ago, Vedomosti drew the scarcely precise conclusion that the price of the S-400 will double the S-300′s price (and the S-500 double the S-400′s).

    So perhaps a “battalion set” or a battalion of the S-400 will go for $320 million. That would be one full-up launch vehicle for $40-50 million.

    The only other shred of information is the widely-reported Financial Times story saying, if the Russians added the S-400 to a $2 billion arms deal with Saudi Arabia, the price of the sale would climb to $7 billion. But lots of Russian reports say Moscow won’t be selling the S-400 abroad soon. The military obviously hopes that’s true, so it can get first.

    But not every customer is Iranian, not every one will have to pay a premium price, and not every customer is foreign.

    Which brings the trickier question of what Russia’s Defense Ministry has to pay. It’s simply impossible to guess.

    Certainly a lot less than buyers abroad. The military’s bought some S-400 systems so there is a going price. OAO Concern PVO Almaz-Antey’s costs are a big question as is the level of profit the government is willing to tolerate.

    The government owns Almaz-Antey, so one part of government is selling to another. It’s a prime example of angst over GOZ ”price formation” in recent years. There was a similar big-ticket dustup over submarine prices with Sevmash. It’s something of a Mexican standoff. The buyer doesn’t have other supplier alternatives. And the seller may not be allowed to sell elsewhere.

    The Defense Ministry, the government don’t want to pay a lot and have the power to refuse and yet still receive goods. The question is how many. That’s ECON 101, friends.

    If those buyers set their price below equilibrium, Almaz-Antey will provide a lower than desired quantity more slowly than the buyers want. And Almaz might have other buyers as an option, an advantage Sevmash lacks. So “price formation” for the S-400 is all about agreement on Almaz’s costs and an acceptable level of profit. That agreement is apparently not smoothly worked out yet.

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    Re: S-300/400/500 News [Russian Strategic Air Defense] #1

    Post  Viktor on Sat Apr 06, 2013 1:59 pm

    Sujoy wrote:What’s It Cost?

    A reader recently asked:

    What’s the cost of one division of the S-400 for Russia and for foreign customers?

    Let’s call it a battalion (дивизион). We’ll start with exports (for which there is actually data). And we proceed from what was paid for the S-300.

    Russia’s planned sale of the S-300PMU1 to Iran reportedly involved the transfer of five “battalion sets” for $800 million. Some sources said as much as $1-1.2 billion.

    Let’s guess the “battalion set” has three firing batteries, with two launchers per, for a total of 30 TELs, 120+ missiles, and all associated radars, fire control systems, and vehicles.


    This is completely wrong.

    1. Iran bought 5 batteries of S-300PMU1 (also called in that case divisions/battalions)(NOT 15 batteries Very Happy )
    2. When talking about battalion set consisting of 3 batteries than you are talking only of S-300V system and no other. It is the way army
    nomenclatures its systems.
    3. Each battery/division/battalion (same thing when talking about territorial PVO) S-300PMU1 cost 160 million $
    4. Iran bought one almost full regiment (6 max, for S-400Export 8 max. )
    5. Minimum number of launchers per battery of export S-300/400 system is 4 (not 2 as said in the text) - but in that case customers
    always take more loaders
    6. There could be some other options included if Iran wanted to make its regiments more independent or dependant
    perhaps make two regiment out of 5 batteries and some other things but that is just to speculative


    Take Venezuela for example Sujoy, it could very easily be that Venezuela paid close to 1 bin $ for 1 S-300VM battalion (perhaps even

    more than 1 bin $) with simulators and PVO troopers training. Thats because there is no S-300V battery operational unit but only as a

    battalion consisting of 3 batteries and 4 batteries for newer versions.


    Sujoy wrote:If $800 million is accurate, the price for one battalion was $160 million

    Thats wrong also. Totally wrong.

    Iran ordered ONE S-300PMU1 regiment and thats all - consisting of five batteries.

    Price of one battery is 160 million $. Those systems are not cheap.


    Sujoy wrote:This isn’t unlike what the Chinese paid for the S-300 in the 1990s and 2000s. According to Sinodefence.com, they bought battalions for between $25 and $60 million at different times under different contracts.

    That done, we make the leap from the S-300 price to the S-400 price.

    A couple years ago, Vedomosti drew the scarcely precise conclusion that the price of the S-400 will double the S-300′s price (and the S-500 double the S-400′s).

    So perhaps a “battalion set” or a battalion of the S-400 will go for $320 million. That would be one full-up launch vehicle for $40-50 million.



    China contract are not representative because:

    - no one has seen such contract or has confirmed it by either side unlike some others
    - its price is speculative based on some defense analysts estimate cost of one S-300 battery and latter multiplied
    numerous times throughout mass media and latter entered in the SIPRI documets. Basically you have one lie or half-lie information
    floating around and gaining reputation.
    - Still it could be that earlier during the 90ies Russia sold its best at cheaper price, lower quality/capability and you have to take
    in the consideration inflation throughout this time.
    - Russia wanted money to save its industry or perhaps to invest them in new development
    - Never will this happen again if that happened anyway.

    Recent contract with Iran (S-300PMU1) that you wrongly cited where 160 million $ per division/battery/battalion
    Recent contract with Libya that sadly never materialized, included S-300PMU2 battery priced at 250 million $
    Early S-300PMU1 contract with Vietnam costed 150 million $ (min.) per division/battery.


    Sujoy wrote:A couple years ago, Vedomosti drew the scarcely precise conclusion that the price of the S-400 will double the S-300′s price (and the S-500 double the S-400′s).

    So perhaps a “battalion set” or a battalion of the S-400 will go for $320 million. That would be one full-up launch vehicle for $40-50 million.

    When talking about Russian territorial PVO, battery equals battalion. This 320 million $ could very easily be the price of one

    S-400 battery (although I think it will be even higher).

    As of now one battalion of S-300V4 consisting of three batteries cost 800 - 950 million $ (price for Russian army) which would

    give its price range somewhere in between 270 - 320 million $ per S-300V battery



    Sujoy wrote:The only other shred of information is the widely-reported Financial Times story saying, if the Russians added the S-400 to a $2 billion arms deal with Saudi Arabia, the price of the sale would climb to $7 billion. But lots of Russian reports say Moscow won’t be selling the S-400 abroad soon. The military obviously hopes that’s true, so it can get first.

    But not every customer is Iranian, not every one will have to pay a premium price, and not every customer is foreign.

    Which brings the trickier question of what Russia’s Defense Ministry has to pay. It’s simply impossible to guess.

    Certainly a lot less than buyers abroad. The military’s bought some S-400 systems so there is a going price. OAO Concern PVO Almaz-Antey’s costs are a big question as is the level of profit the government is willing to tolerate.

    The government owns Almaz-Antey, so one part of government is selling to another. It’s a prime example of angst over GOZ ”price formation” in recent years. There was a similar big-ticket dustup over submarine prices with Sevmash. It’s something of a Mexican standoff. The buyer doesn’t have other supplier alternatives. And the seller may not be allowed to sell elsewhere.

    The Defense Ministry, the government don’t want to pay a lot and have the power to refuse and yet still receive goods. The question is how many. That’s ECON 101, friends.

    If those buyers set their price below equilibrium, Almaz-Antey will provide a lower than desired quantity more slowly than the buyers want. And Almaz might have other buyers as an option, an advantage Sevmash lacks. So “price formation” for the S-400 is all about agreement on Almaz’s costs and an acceptable level of profit. That agreement is apparently not smoothly worked out yet.



    Chit Chat - nothing important there.

    But see Sujoy - having capable air defense cost money (a lot of it) and just buy buying all those systems is not enough

    as there is still more things you need to do, meaning a lot more money to spend further

    and still you will have PVO with the few orders of magnitude less than Russian one Very Happy

    But If you want to design a PVO as Russian do Laughing Laughing Laughing (and Im not here talking about the size of damn thing - thats

    whole new and different subject) with its complexity largely surpassing anything west can imagine

    than we are talking about mind-blowing sums of money but at the same time mind-blowing efficiency being able to take out tromendous

    pounding without losing its efficiency but at the same time completely denying your airspace to the adversary and shooting everything

    that comes in.

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    Re: S-300/400/500 News [Russian Strategic Air Defense] #1

    Post  gaurav on Sat Apr 06, 2013 4:24 pm

    Chit Chat - nothing important there.
    Absolutely .
    Some of the russian websites try to undermine the Russian state itself.They talk is terms of western propaganda tools of mafia business. They compare russian industry with Boeing , microsoft, Apple. Cool
    Complex thing to explain this but this is the reality of todays Russian media reporting.
    Russia is Russia thats all.

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    Re: S-300/400/500 News [Russian Strategic Air Defense] #1

    Post  KomissarBojanchev on Sat Apr 06, 2013 4:44 pm

    Are there any photos of S-500 missiles anywhere?Will it enter service in the PVo about the same time as the armata enters service in the Russian army?

    One thing I've always wondered is about how many % of trident,minuteman, etc. nuclear warheads could the PVO with A-135s,S-300s and S-400s destroy in a full scale US nuclear attack.

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    Re: S-300/400/500 News [Russian Strategic Air Defense] #1

    Post  gaurav on Sat Apr 06, 2013 5:21 pm

    One thing I've always wondered is about how many %
    of trident,minuteman, etc. nuclear warheads could the PVO with A-135s,S-300s and
    S-400s destroy in a full scale US nuclear attack.
    Dont worry about Tridents ..U.S is busy trying to create jobs for half of its population..Tridents will not fly off
    the ground becase their will be no officers with paid salaries to launch missiles.. he he Smile

    Besides Russia is developing very complex(ultra complex) arrangements of air and missile defenses as detailed by Victor.

    These are the reasons for taking long time to develop whole set of technology.

    The latest report suggests Almaz-antey has shifted its focus on S-400 upgrade ,
    dont know the name though of (S-400 upgrade).The work load of different technologies developed at same time
    is dramatically affecting the time taken to come out with prototypes.

    A-235 strategic missle defence is also in the works. It is ahuge system. Developed in complete secrecy.

    KomissarBojanchev wrote:re there any photos of S-500 missiles anywhere?
    Will it enter service in the PVo about the same time as the armata enters service in the Russian army?
    Total secrecy Smile
    A long range missile(offcial designation unknown) S-500 missile did go into testing in 2013 .But it will be integrated with s-400 , thats what was reported in interfax.

    77N6 and 77N6-N1 being developed now, I suspect these are not the actual names.PLease not
    the below quote from Forum member .. the latter half ..
    The 77N6-N and 77N6-N1 missile for S-500 is claimed by Izvestiya

    and I would take any news from it with a truck load of salt except for interviews

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    Re: S-300/400/500 News [Russian Strategic Air Defense] #1

    Post  Sujoy on Sat Apr 06, 2013 6:17 pm

    Viktor wrote:But see Sujoy - having capable air defense cost money (a lot of it) and just buy buying all those systems is not enough

    Viktor , all good points that you make .

    For China , this is what I know :

    The PLAAF signed a contract in 1994 ( and got delivery around 98-99)to purchase two battalions (eight batteries) of the S-300PMU1 . The US$400 million package included 32 self-propelled 5P85SE/DE TEL vehicles and 196 TVM-guidance 48N6E missiles.

    An additional two battalions (eight batteries) of the S-300PMU1 system was ordered in 2001 in a contract worth US$400 million. The packaged included 32 TEL vehicles and 198 missiles, also in the 48N6E model.

    In 2003, the PRC finalised a contract worth US$980 million with Rosoboronexport to acquire four battalions (16 batteries) of the S-300PMU2 . The package included 64 self-propelled 5P85SE2/DE2 TEL vehicles and 256 improved 48N6E2 missiles.

    In 1999 The commander of Russia’s air defense troops, Alexander Sorokin, said that Kazakhstan would be purchasing ten divisions of S-300PS systems by installments before 2011.The cost of two divisions of S-300 missile systems were evaluated at $250-300 million. This is the price that Vietnam paid Russia when it purchased two divisions of S-300 complexes.

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    Re: S-300/400/500 News [Russian Strategic Air Defense] #1

    Post  KomissarBojanchev on Sat Apr 06, 2013 9:20 pm

    gaurav wrote:
    One thing I've always wondered is about how many %
    of trident,minuteman, etc. nuclear warheads could the PVO with A-135s,S-300s and
    S-400s destroy in a full scale US nuclear attack.
    Dont worry about Tridents ..U.S is busy trying to create jobs for half of its population..Tridents will not fly off
    the ground becase their will be no officers with paid salaries to launch missiles.. he he Smile

    Besides Russia is developing very complex(ultra complex) arrangements of air and missile defenses as detailed by Victor.

    These are the reasons for taking long time to develop whole set of technology.

    The latest report suggests Almaz-antey has shifted its focus on S-400 upgrade ,
    dont know the name though of (S-400 upgrade).The work load of different technologies developed at same time
    is dramatically affecting the time taken to come out with prototypes.

    A-235 strategic missle defence is also in the works. It is ahuge system. Developed in complete secrecy.

    ok thx for the info. BTW I was just being curious in a theoretical full nuclear exchange scenario if the Russian PVO would actually be able to destroy enough incoming warheads so that the country isn't entirely turned into a worthless radioactive wasteland and so there are actual civilians saved Wink

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    Re: S-300/400/500 News [Russian Strategic Air Defense] #1

    Post  TR1 on Sat Apr 06, 2013 11:47 pm

    If there is a full out nuclear exchange, they won't do squat.

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    Re: S-300/400/500 News [Russian Strategic Air Defense] #1

    Post  Zivo on Sun Apr 07, 2013 5:17 am

    They would buy time, that's about it.

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    Re: S-300/400/500 News [Russian Strategic Air Defense] #1

    Post  Austin on Sun Apr 07, 2013 8:15 pm

    Q&A Session on Recent Developments in U.S. and NATO Missile Defense with Dr. Yousaf Butt and Dr. George Lewis

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    Re: S-300/400/500 News [Russian Strategic Air Defense] #1

    Post  Viktor on Mon Apr 08, 2013 3:02 am

    Sujoy wrote:
    Viktor wrote:But see Sujoy - having capable air defense cost money (a lot of it) and just buy buying all those systems is not enough

    Viktor , all good points that you make .

    For China , this is what I know :

    The PLAAF signed a contract in 1994 ( and got delivery around 98-99)to purchase two battalions (eight batteries) of the S-300PMU1 . The US$400 million package included 32 self-propelled 5P85SE/DE TEL vehicles and 196 TVM-guidance 48N6E missiles.

    An additional two battalions (eight batteries) of the S-300PMU1 system was ordered in 2001 in a contract worth US$400 million. The packaged included 32 TEL vehicles and 198 missiles, also in the 48N6E model.

    In 2003, the PRC finalised a contract worth US$980 million with Rosoboronexport to acquire four battalions (16 batteries) of the S-300PMU2 . The package included 64 self-propelled 5P85SE2/DE2 TEL vehicles and 256 improved 48N6E2 missiles.



    Do you know whats the problem Sujoy. Unreliability of information.

    You see

    - according to sinodefence China acquired 40 batteries of S-300 (each with 4 launchers making 160 launchers in total)

    - according to you China acquired 32 batteries of S-300 (each with 4 launchers making 128 launchers in total)

    - according to SIPRI China acquired 24-26 batteries of S-300 (each with 4 launchers making 96-104 launchers in total)

    So you see the problem. There is not exact known amount of the purchased systems so there is no point of discussing the price.

    Price of S-300 is even larger mystery that the number of S-300 launchers.


    Sujoy wrote:In 1999 The commander of Russia’s air defense troops, Alexander Sorokin, said that Kazakhstan would be purchasing ten divisions of S-300PS systems by installments before 2011.The cost of two divisions of S-300 missile systems were evaluated at $250-300 million. This is the price that Vietnam paid Russia when it purchased two divisions of S-300 complexes.

    Take a look.

    Nothing is settled jet. But things are unfolding. It is obvious that combined and integrated air-defense will be established but still

    it is not clear whether Kazahstan will pay for missiles or will be granted for free.

    My guess is that Kazahstan will pay for it in either case:

    1. Buying 10 divisions (1.5 bin $ aprox)
    2. Getting 10 divisions for free (Russia is getting rid of S-300PS) but binding them to buy S-400 later on.


    Russia, Kazakhstan to merge missile defences



    Russia and Kazakhstan will merge their missile defence systems, with the agreement to this effect due to be signed in 2013, the Commander of the Kazakh aerial defence, Colonel Nourzhan Moukanov, has told a news conference held in the town of Cholpon-Ata, on the shores of Lake Issyk-Kul.

    According to him, the terms of the proposed agreement are currently in the process of being finalised. The Commander also expects Russia to settle the issue of the delivery of Russian-made S-300 surface-to-air missiles to Kazakhstan in 2013.

    The Secretariat of the Council of CIS Defence Ministers told the Interfax news agency earlier that Russia would supply up to ten S-300 air defence systems to Kazakhstan free of charge.

    LINK



    Last edited by Viktor on Mon Apr 08, 2013 7:27 pm; edited 2 times in total

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    Re: S-300/400/500 News [Russian Strategic Air Defense] #1

    Post  medo on Mon Apr 08, 2013 5:19 pm

    China got different versions of S-300, so they don't have the same price. Maybe we should look on Azerbaidjan for price.

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    Re: S-300/400/500 News [Russian Strategic Air Defense] #1

    Post  Viktor on Mon Apr 08, 2013 6:56 pm

    medo wrote:China got different versions of S-300, so they don't have the same price.

    Of course, but as even the exact number of S-300 system remains a mystery so does the price no matter the version.


    medo wrote:Maybe we should look on Azerbaidjan for price.

    We have no price for Azerbaijan either. It is cited at 300 million $ for two S-300PMU2 divisionsat least Very Happy .

    Libya (before the war) signed for two S-300PMU2 divisions with the estimated worth 500 million $.

    Iran signed for 5 batteries worth 800 million $, meaning 160 million per division of S-300PMU1.

    Syria signed for 8 batteries of BUK-M2, meaning 120 million $ per battery.

    I think we can safely assume S-300PMU2 battery at around 200 million $ several million more or less

    depending on the amount and type of extra equipment or missiles.

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    Re: S-300/400/500 News [Russian Strategic Air Defense] #1

    Post  medo on Tue Apr 09, 2013 4:23 pm

    Even Dollar didn't have the same value through years.

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