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    Russian Economy General News: #4

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    KoTeMoRe
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  KoTeMoRe on Thu Apr 23, 2015 3:30 pm

    Kimppis wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:I am also curious how it will cost Russia money when they cannot buy western goods? Can someone explain that to me? Was the import business worth $75B? Cause when you purchase your own made goods, you GAIN revenue. Logically, what your media ia claiming that medvedev said, sure does not sound right. $75B, does that also include debt repayment? If so, that doesnt count.

    Aaand... exactly. Why talk about GDP percentages? Doesn't make much sense.

    It made sense for 2014, doesn't make sense for 2015.

    To see the original statement go to government.ru then look for "Government report on its performance in 2014".

    You'll see that no good crisis goes to waste.

    Kimppis
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  Kimppis on Thu Apr 23, 2015 3:33 pm

    KoTeMoRe wrote:The economy grew because of State intervention yes. And because the Oil prices were well above the 90 USD threshold up until November. Furthermore the USD started appreciating last winter which in return gave the Russian fund more value in regards to Euro. That probably was used by wealthy Russians to bet against RUB and EUR.

    So basically indeed the Ru economy was going to do a lot better if everything would have stayed the same (oil over 115 USD and Euro at 1.25 vs USD). Because unlike you might think Russia has expanded its oil exports albeit the oil costs less.

    Oh yes, absolute the growth would've been better, but not THAT (1.5% all due to sanctions, as Medvedev put it) much.

    So he never said anything about 75% and 4.8%? What the fuck?

    My translation:
    Last year sanctions took 25 billion from the Russian economy. This year the effect could be high as 75 billion. This would be equivalent of 4.8% of the country's GDP, Medvedev said.

    sepheronx
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  sepheronx on Thu Apr 23, 2015 3:36 pm

    Nope. Looks like Finnish media added that in.

    KoTeMoRe
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  KoTeMoRe on Thu Apr 23, 2015 3:36 pm

    Go to government.ru, check for "Government report on its performance in 2014"

    See by yourself.

    Even a lowbob like me will not make definite predictions let alone the PM of a 150 million country.

    Kimppis
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  Kimppis on Thu Apr 23, 2015 3:40 pm

    KoTeMoRe wrote:To see the original statement go to government.ru then look for "Government report on its performance in 2014".

    You'll see that no good crisis goes to waste.

    Thanks for the link. Didn't even no such a site existed in English. Smile

    And to answer my own question: No, there's not a word about "75 billion" or "4.8%". Atleast not in that article.


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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  Kimppis on Thu Apr 23, 2015 3:41 pm

    KoTeMoRe wrote:Go to government.ru, check for "Government report on its performance in 2014"

    See by yourself.

    Even a lowbob like me will not make definite predictions let alone the PM of a 150 million country.

    New replies coming in fast. Can't keep track anymore. Smile

    sepheronx
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  sepheronx on Thu Apr 23, 2015 3:42 pm

    KoTeMoRe wrote:Go to government.ru, check for "Government report on its performance in 2014"

    See by yourself.

    Even a lowbob like me will not make definite predictions let alone the PM of a 150 million country.

    I went through Tass, Sputnik and Ria on 21 of this month and found nothing mentioned of $75B or 5% of gdp mentioned by Medvedev. Add to that$75B isnt 5% of GDP, so the numbers are clearly off.

    KoTeMoRe
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  KoTeMoRe on Thu Apr 23, 2015 3:52 pm

    I think I know where the 4.8% comes from.

    We have some slick motherf.... at one of the Press agencies am Westen.

    Dmitry said that indeed there was a 2% fall in GDP this year from january to march

    government.ru wrote:These negative trends continued into this year. In January-March 2015, GDP declined by approximately two percent and industrial production by 0.4 percent from the first quarter of last year.

    Some creative people have quartered in and voila. 20 billion USD per quarter and you have your 80 billion. Given idiots don't know about fluctuating, you have the famous 2%, 2%, 2%, 2%.


    Now about oil and gas?

    government.ru wrote:Oil production has stabilised at about 527 million [metric] tonnes, a slight growth on the previous period. This level is enough to meet our own needs and our exports.

    Natural gas production is 640 billion cubic metres. There was a slight fall, but we reached an agreement to build a new gas pipeline to Turkey and Greece, as you know, instead of South Stream. A breakthrough 30-year contract was signed on gas supplies to China. A section of the pipeline to China along the Sila Sibiri [Siberian Might] eastern route is under construction.

    Now, a few words about the transport sector. It was largely thanks to state support that air transport continued to grow, including, which is especially important, on domestic routes – something we have been working on in recent years and which we finally managed to restore. Excluding Moscow, domestic air transport was up 22 percent, with over 10 million passengers carried. A total of 93 million people used air transport, which is 110 percent on 2013. Let me remind you that under the priority measures for domestic air travel, we set a 10 percent VAT rate to support carriers and therefore support our passengers.

    The situation in the commuter railway service was difficult. Under the priority action plan, a zero VAT rate was introduced for this sector. The situation has on the whole stabilised and is under control.

    I think RD needs a full time bombproofing for Russian news. Because the Free Press is always creative.

    sepheronx
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  sepheronx on Thu Apr 23, 2015 3:57 pm

    So then where did the supposed 0.8% gdp growth Q1 came from?

    KoTeMoRe
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  KoTeMoRe on Thu Apr 23, 2015 4:04 pm

    Probably "real growth"...Just like with Poland in 2009.

    Speculative moments have this amazing ability to create growth from nothing fro short amounts. So In december and february you had a bounce.

    And the World bank said the same...


    sepheronx
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  sepheronx on Thu Apr 23, 2015 4:07 pm

    KoTeMoRe wrote:Probably "real growth"...Just like with Poland in 2009.

    Speculative moments have this amazing ability to create growth from nothing fro short amounts. So In december and february you had a bounce.

    And the World bank said the same...


    World bank said 2% drop? Ouch. Guess they will need to figure something out.

    Kimppis
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  Kimppis on Thu Apr 23, 2015 4:10 pm

    TBH, even -2% is pretty damn good overall, considering the first quarter was supposed to be the worst. "Collapse of the Russian economy", indeed.

    sepheronx
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  sepheronx on Thu Apr 23, 2015 4:14 pm

    Kimppis wrote:TBH, even -2% is pretty damn good overall, considering the first quarter was supposed to be the worst. "Collapse of the Russian economy", indeed.

    Yes, you are right. In 2008 - 2009 Russian GDP droped by about 9% and no sanctions involved. 2% drop in Q1 and most stated worst is over (bloomberg acknowledged which is strange really) gives the indication they have really weathered it, but should push hard now. They need stability but guess the investments will take time to profit off of so we may not see things to really rebound till late this year or early next.

    Viktor
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  Viktor on Thu Apr 23, 2015 4:17 pm

    Russia and Argentina signed 5bin $ worth energy deal

    LINK

    KoTeMoRe
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  KoTeMoRe on Thu Apr 23, 2015 4:23 pm

    sepheronx wrote:
    KoTeMoRe wrote:Probably "real growth"...Just like with Poland in 2009.

    Speculative moments have this amazing ability to create growth from nothing fro short amounts. So In december and february you had a bounce.

    And the World bank said the same...


    World bank said 2% drop? Ouch. Guess they will need to figure something out.

    World bank says 1.6-3.8 dip from last year. Russians expect from 2 to 4%.

    However there are some very good points with Russian economy. Low Consumer credit and low % of Non Performing Loans. And generally less opaque unemployment numbers.

    Slightly off topic: this week quarantine is hard on my argument.

    Kimppis: Now first quarter has been slow two years in row...


    KoTeMoRe
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    The status of Russian Economy and its perceived Oil dependency #

    Post  KoTeMoRe on Thu Apr 23, 2015 7:30 pm

    Viktor wrote:Nice  thumbsup


    Off course, the Russian state has the oil at 50 USD all year now, guess what? Oil will shoot up at 70 by the end of the year and is already at 61...
    See people that's how you diversify :sarcasm:...

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