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    Russian Economy General News: #4

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    Viktor
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  Viktor on Wed Apr 22, 2015 7:46 pm

    Nice Very Happy thumbsup

    Turkey and Russia may conclude free trade agreement by year end — Turkish minister

    Ulyukayev: the authorities will have to take a decision to gradually increase the retirement age

    MAYOR improved forecast GDP and the rate of the ruble in 2015

    Weekly inflation in Russia has returned to the level of 0.2%

    Austin
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  Austin on Wed Apr 22, 2015 8:01 pm

    ^^ Nice Viktor , Thanks for you effort , Keeping Posting , I enjoy reading always !

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  Austin on Wed Apr 22, 2015 8:08 pm

    Just had a query if push comes to shove can Gazprom actually move the entire European Gas to Asian Market thats what they keep saying but is it feseable to move such large volume to asian market without a drop in gas price

    Viktor
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  Viktor on Wed Apr 22, 2015 8:08 pm

    Austin wrote:^^ Nice Viktor , Thanks for you effort , Keeping Posting , I enjoy reading always !

    My pleasure Austin ... tnx

    Soviet Redux: Vietnam Is Joining Russia's Eurasian Trade Bloc Very Happy thumbsup

    magnumcromagnon
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  magnumcromagnon on Wed Apr 22, 2015 9:05 pm

    Viktor wrote:
    Austin wrote:^^ Nice Viktor , Thanks for you effort , Keeping Posting , I enjoy reading always !

    My pleasure Austin ... tnx

    Soviet Redux: Vietnam Is Joining Russia's Eurasian Trade Bloc Very Happy thumbsup

    Rolling Eyes Leave it to the imbeciles at Vice Magazine to not realize that a Free Trade Association =/= Soviet Communism, and that the majority of the USSR member states were apart of the Russian empire before they were apart of the USSR.

    Viktor
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  Viktor on Wed Apr 22, 2015 9:27 pm

    magnumcromagnon wrote:
    Viktor wrote:
    Austin wrote:^^ Nice Viktor , Thanks for you effort , Keeping Posting , I enjoy reading always !

    My pleasure Austin ... tnx

    Soviet Redux: Vietnam Is Joining Russia's Eurasian Trade Bloc Very Happy thumbsup

    Rolling Eyes Leave it to the imbeciles at Vice Magazine to not realize that a Free Trade Association =/= Soviet Communism, and that the majority of the USSR member states were apart of the Russian empire before they were apart of the USSR.

    Most of the people here can clearly see the propaganda and spam and because of it, it is not important. But what is important is that Vietnam will join free trade zone with the Custom

    Union.

    max steel
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  max steel on Wed Apr 22, 2015 9:32 pm

    tpp went in gutter perhaps .

    Cyberspec
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  Cyberspec on Thu Apr 23, 2015 2:21 am

    max steel wrote:tpp went in gutter perhaps .

    Perhaps they're not as mutually exclusive in the longer run than it seems at the moment.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  Kimppis on Thu Apr 23, 2015 12:41 pm

    So according to Medvedev, the sanctions are going to cost Russia $75 billion this year, which is "around 5% of the GDP". How is that even possible if the economy is going to decrease by 2-4% and even that is mostly due to oil price?

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  KoTeMoRe on Thu Apr 23, 2015 12:55 pm

    Kimppis wrote:So according to Medvedev, the sanctions are going to cost Russia $75 billion this year, which is "around 5% of the GDP". How is that even possible if the economy is going to decrease by 2-4% and even that is mostly due to oil price?

    How is 75 billion 5% of Russian GDP? Is this revised rate and if so how does Medvedev knows how 2015 will end?

    Because sanctions are offset to a certain amount and losses FROM sanctions are recouped with local production and diversification.

    Little example.

    I own shop. You are my main supplier. The trade with you amounts to 5% of my total income. You stop supplying me. I find another supplier, to replace your input.
    But I have lost those 5% anyway.

    Kimppis
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  Kimppis on Thu Apr 23, 2015 1:47 pm

    KoTeMoRe wrote:
    Kimppis wrote:So according to Medvedev, the sanctions are going to cost Russia $75 billion this year, which is "around 5% of the GDP". How is that even possible if the economy is going to decrease by 2-4% and even that is mostly due to oil price?

    How is 75 billion 5% of Russian GDP? Is this revised rate and if so how does Medvedev knows how 2015 will end?

    Because sanctions are offset to a certain amount and losses FROM sanctions are recouped with local production and diversification.

    Little example.

    I own shop. You are my main supplier. The trade with you amounts to 5% of my total income. You stop supplying me. I find another supplier, to replace your input.
    But I have lost those 5% anyway.

    Well, ask Medvedev. And it's probably true, with the current exchange rate. According to Finnish media, he just said all that like a few days ago.

    KoTeMoRe
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  KoTeMoRe on Thu Apr 23, 2015 1:58 pm

    Kimppis wrote:
    KoTeMoRe wrote:
    Kimppis wrote:So according to Medvedev, the sanctions are going to cost Russia $75 billion this year, which is "around 5% of the GDP". How is that even possible if the economy is going to decrease by 2-4% and even that is mostly due to oil price?

    How is 75 billion 5% of Russian GDP? Is this revised rate and if so how does Medvedev knows how 2015 will end?

    Because sanctions are offset to a certain amount and losses FROM sanctions are recouped with local production and diversification.

    Little example.

    I own shop. You are my main supplier. The trade with you amounts to 5% of my total income. You stop supplying me. I find another supplier, to replace your input.
    But I have lost those 5% anyway.

    Well, ask Medvedev. And it's probably true, with the current exchange rate. According to Finnish media, he just said all that like a few days ago.

    The revised rate at how much? The current exchange rate sees a 25% hike last year. YOY it is about 45% hike (35vs USD to current 51). Which should if everything stays equal sink the Russian GDP value at about 1.2 trln USD. However as a part of Russian revenue is in hard currency (probably up to 0.6 trillion) this doesn't affect Russia as much.

    May I have a source?

    sepheronx
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  sepheronx on Thu Apr 23, 2015 2:40 pm

    Kimppis wrote:So according to Medvedev, the sanctions are going to cost Russia $75 billion this year, which is "around 5% of the GDP". How is that even possible if the economy is going to decrease by 2-4% and even that is mostly due to oil price?

    He probably didnt say that since I never seen that even in Russian news. As well, $75B isnt 5% of GDP. Are you sure he said that or is that what Finn Media is saying?

    I am also curious how it will cost Russia money when they cannot buy western goods? Can someone explain that to me? Was the import business worth $75B? Cause when you purchase your own made goods, you GAIN revenue. Logically, what your media ia claiming that medvedev said, sure does not sound right. $75B, does that also include debt repayment? If so, that doesnt count.


    Last edited by sepheronx on Thu Apr 23, 2015 2:55 pm; edited 1 time in total

    KoTeMoRe
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  KoTeMoRe on Thu Apr 23, 2015 2:49 pm

    I think we have a problem here...
    Radio Free Sh** wrote: Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said on April 21 that the country's economy has lost an estimated 25 billion euros as a result of Western sanctions and that the losses could be "several times" higher this year.

    Speaking in his annual report to parliament on the economy, Medvedev said Russia's gross domestic product dropped by about 2 percent in the first quarter of 2015. That drop, if confirmed, would be Russia's first quarterly contraction since the deep recession of 2009.

    Medvedev's assessment of Russia's economic situation was starker and more frank than upbeat comments from President Vladimir Putin, who told the nation on April 16 that the economy was "over the worst."

    Medvedev said Russia's losses from sanctions imposed by the European Union, the United States, and other countries over Moscow's interference in Ukraine have been "significant -- we won't hide it," and could get worse.

    "For the first time in the history of Russia after the collapse of the U.S.S.R....our country has turned out to be under the influence of two external shocks -- a sharp drop in oil prices and unprecedentedly harsh sanctions pressure," he said. "We've never faced such an array of simultaneous challenges."


    So how did that become 75 billion?

    Various sites are using the 75 billion Euro quote liberally, while other sites have been directly quoting the PM
    Yahoo Finance wrote: Mr Medvedev said the sanctions had cost the economy €25bn in 2014 - or 1.5 pc of GDP. "In 2015 that number could increase several times," he said.

    There you are.


    Last edited by KoTeMoRe on Thu Apr 23, 2015 2:59 pm; edited 1 time in total

    sepheronx
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  sepheronx on Thu Apr 23, 2015 2:58 pm

    KoTeMoRe wrote:I think we have a problem here...
    Radio Free Sh** wrote: Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said on April 21 that the country's economy has lost an estimated 25 billion euros as a result of Western sanctions and that the losses could be "several times" higher this year.

    Speaking in his annual report to parliament on the economy, Medvedev said Russia's gross domestic product dropped by about 2 percent in the first quarter of 2015. That drop, if confirmed, would be Russia's first quarterly contraction since the deep recession of 2009.

    Medvedev's assessment of Russia's economic situation was starker and more frank than upbeat comments from President Vladimir Putin, who told the nation on April 16 that the economy was "over the worst."

    Medvedev said Russia's losses from sanctions imposed by the European Union, the United States, and other countries over Moscow's interference in Ukraine have been "significant -- we won't hide it," and could get worse.

    "For the first time in the history of Russia after the collapse of the U.S.S.R....our country has turned out to be under the influence of two external shocks -- a sharp drop in oil prices and unprecedentedly harsh sanctions pressure," he said. "We've never faced such an array of simultaneous challenges."


    So how did that become 75 billion?

    And how did he get 2% drop when rosstat figures are not out yet?

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  flamming_python on Thu Apr 23, 2015 3:02 pm

    sepheronx wrote:
    KoTeMoRe wrote:I think we have a problem here...
    Radio Free Sh** wrote: Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said on April 21 that the country's economy has lost an estimated 25 billion euros as a result of Western sanctions and that the losses could be "several times" higher this year.

    Speaking in his annual report to parliament on the economy, Medvedev said Russia's gross domestic product dropped by about 2 percent in the first quarter of 2015. That drop, if confirmed, would be Russia's first quarterly contraction since the deep recession of 2009.

    Medvedev's assessment of Russia's economic situation was starker and more frank than upbeat comments from President Vladimir Putin, who told the nation on April 16 that the economy was "over the worst."

    Medvedev said Russia's losses from sanctions imposed by the European Union, the United States, and other countries over Moscow's interference in Ukraine have been "significant -- we won't hide it," and could get worse.

    "For the first time in the history of Russia after the collapse of the U.S.S.R....our country has turned out to be under the influence of two external shocks -- a sharp drop in oil prices and unprecedentedly harsh sanctions pressure," he said. "We've never faced such an array of simultaneous challenges."


    So how did that become 75 billion?

    And how did he get 2% drop when rosstat figures are not out yet?

    Well he is the Prime Minister you know.

    But it does smell a little fishy. Weren't the previous indications that the Russian economy supposed to have grown in Q1 2015?

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  Kimppis on Thu Apr 23, 2015 3:05 pm

    KoTeMoRe wrote:
    Kimppis wrote:
    KoTeMoRe wrote:
    Kimppis wrote:So according to Medvedev, the sanctions are going to cost Russia $75 billion this year, which is "around 5% of the GDP". How is that even possible if the economy is going to decrease by 2-4% and even that is mostly due to oil price?

    How is 75 billion 5% of Russian GDP? Is this revised rate and if so how does Medvedev knows how 2015 will end?

    Because sanctions are offset to a certain amount and losses FROM sanctions are recouped with local production and diversification.

    Little example.

    I own shop. You are my main supplier. The trade with you amounts to 5% of my total income. You stop supplying me. I find another supplier, to replace your input.
    But I have lost those 5% anyway.

    Well, ask Medvedev. And it's probably true, with the current exchange rate. According to Finnish media, he just said all that like a few days ago.

    The revised rate at how much? The current exchange rate sees a 25% hike last year. YOY it is about 45% hike (35vs USD to current 51). Which should if everything stays equal sink the Russian GDP value at about 1.2 trln USD. However as a part of Russian revenue is in hard currency (probably up to 0.6 trillion) this doesn't affect Russia as much.

    May I have a source?

    http://yle.fi/uutiset/medvedev_pakotteiden_aiheuttama_haitta_moninkertaistuu_tana_vuonna/7945283

    So yeah, it's saying basically the same thing as the article that was linked above. And according to Medvedev, 75 billion = 4.8% of the GDP.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  KoTeMoRe on Thu Apr 23, 2015 3:06 pm

    I can't get the transcription at the State Duma, will look at the RF PM's site. But something tells me that the 2% is creative editing from Radio Free Europe.

    As for the percentage at 1.5% could be the 2014 rate that makes about 1.7 trln Eur (about 2.1 Trln 2014-USD). Nothing weird, just Forex bouncing.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  Kimppis on Thu Apr 23, 2015 3:14 pm

    Something doesn't add up, that's for sure. 2-4% (or whatever) decrease in GDP, mostly due to oil price vs. sanctions take "4.8% of GDP".

    And last year Russian economy grew by 0.6%, if I'm not mistaken... And even that was mostly because of oil, right? It's not like Russian economy was going to grow 0.6% + 1.5% (Medvedev's figure) + whatever they lost due to oil (which should me way more than the sanctions!) in 2014 before the whole crisis.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  KoTeMoRe on Thu Apr 23, 2015 3:15 pm

    Kimppis wrote:
    KoTeMoRe wrote:
    Kimppis wrote:
    KoTeMoRe wrote:
    Kimppis wrote:So according to Medvedev, the sanctions are going to cost Russia $75 billion this year, which is "around 5% of the GDP". How is that even possible if the economy is going to decrease by 2-4% and even that is mostly due to oil price?

    How is 75 billion 5% of Russian GDP? Is this revised rate and if so how does Medvedev knows how 2015 will end?

    Because sanctions are offset to a certain amount and losses FROM sanctions are recouped with local production and diversification.

    Little example.

    I own shop. You are my main supplier. The trade with you amounts to 5% of my total income. You stop supplying me. I find another supplier, to replace your input.
    But I have lost those 5% anyway.

    Well, ask Medvedev. And it's probably true, with the current exchange rate. According to Finnish media, he just said all that like a few days ago.

    The revised rate at how much? The current exchange rate sees a 25% hike last year. YOY it is about 45% hike (35vs USD to current 51). Which should if everything stays equal sink the Russian GDP value at about 1.2 trln USD. However as a part of Russian revenue is in hard currency (probably up to 0.6 trillion) this doesn't affect Russia as much.

    May I have a source?



    So yeah, it's saying basically the same thing as the article that was linked above. And according to Medvedev, 75 billion = 4.8% of the GDP.

    Well Medvedev never said that...

    government.ru wrote: However, it is only a fraction of the work done in the Crimean Federal District. I made a point of mentioning this because, apart from funding, Crimea will require our active cooperation in the very near future. This is why we all often go there – both our State Duma colleagues and my colleagues in the Government – not because Crimea has a good climate but because this territory is significantly behind our country. Significantly behind. Our goal is to make up for ground lost in the last 25 years, so that we don’t regret later the decisions that have been made. This is especially important, which is why I opened my presentation with it, despite the fact there was no question about Crimea in the questions that were put to me in writing.

    The reunification of Crimea has influenced the economy. There is practically no economic sector that hasn’t been affected by some or other political measures, from the financial sphere and restrictions on access to foreign credit to technology imports. Losses caused by these restrictions are considerable, let’s not conceal them. As estimated by a number of experts, Russia has suffered damage worth about 25 billion euros, or 1.5 percent of the GDP. In 2015, this damage may increase several times over.

    But, certainly, the economic consequences of the Crimean decision would have been easier if a number of internal problems had not piled up in the economy, problems that we had failed to solve. And this should be admitted frankly as well. All regions in this country have felt in full measure the repercussions of the deteriorating foreign economic situation and foreign policy upheavals. Budget revenues have sunk, while expenditures have, on the contrary, risen.


    Seph can you please go to to government.ru and put the statement link because as a newbie I can't yet do it.

    So Free Media strikes again, I though this site would only have "first hand sources" in these matters, to avoid "Ahmadinejading" moments.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  sepheronx on Thu Apr 23, 2015 3:17 pm

    Kimppis wrote:
    KoTeMoRe wrote:
    Kimppis wrote:
    KoTeMoRe wrote:
    Kimppis wrote:So according to Medvedev, the sanctions are going to cost Russia $75 billion this year, which is "around 5% of the GDP". How is that even possible if the economy is going to decrease by 2-4% and even that is mostly due to oil price?

    How is 75 billion 5% of Russian GDP? Is this revised rate and if so how does Medvedev knows how 2015 will end?

    Because sanctions are offset to a certain amount and losses FROM sanctions are recouped with local production and diversification.

    Little example.

    I own shop. You are my main supplier. The trade with you amounts to 5% of my total income. You stop supplying me. I find another supplier, to replace your input.
    But I have lost those 5% anyway.

    Well, ask Medvedev. And it's probably true, with the current exchange rate. According to Finnish media, he just said all that like a few days ago.

    The revised rate at how much? The current exchange rate sees a 25% hike last year. YOY it is about 45% hike (35vs USD to current 51). Which should if everything stays equal sink the Russian GDP value at about 1.2 trln USD. However as a part of Russian revenue is in hard currency (probably up to 0.6 trillion) this doesn't affect Russia as much.

    May I have a source?

    http://yle.fi/uutiset/medvedev_pakotteiden_aiheuttama_haitta_moninkertaistuu_tana_vuonna/7945283

    So yeah, it's saying basically the same thing as the article that was linked above. And according to Medvedev, 75 billion = 4.8% of the GDP.

    Can you find a none finnish source? I am reading tass and ria and cant find it and they are Russian sources.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  sepheronx on Thu Apr 23, 2015 3:18 pm

    KoTeMoRe wrote:
    Kimppis wrote:
    KoTeMoRe wrote:
    Kimppis wrote:
    KoTeMoRe wrote:
    Kimppis wrote:So according to Medvedev, the sanctions are going to cost Russia $75 billion this year, which is "around 5% of the GDP". How is that even possible if the economy is going to decrease by 2-4% and even that is mostly due to oil price?

    How is 75 billion 5% of Russian GDP? Is this revised rate and if so how does Medvedev knows how 2015 will end?

    Because sanctions are offset to a certain amount and losses FROM sanctions are recouped with local production and diversification.

    Little example.

    I own shop. You are my main supplier. The trade with you amounts to 5% of my total income. You stop supplying me. I find another supplier, to replace your input.
    But I have lost those 5% anyway.

    Well, ask Medvedev. And it's probably true, with the current exchange rate. According to Finnish media, he just said all that like a few days ago.

    The revised rate at how much? The current exchange rate sees a 25% hike last year. YOY it is about 45% hike (35vs USD to current 51). Which should if everything stays equal sink the Russian GDP value at about 1.2 trln USD. However as a part of Russian revenue is in hard currency (probably up to 0.6 trillion) this doesn't affect Russia as much.

    May I have a source?



    So yeah, it's saying basically the same thing as the article that was linked above. And according to Medvedev, 75 billion = 4.8% of the GDP.

    Well Medvedev never said that...

    government.ru wrote: However, it is only a fraction of the work done in the Crimean Federal District. I made a point of mentioning this because, apart from funding, Crimea will require our active cooperation in the very near future. This is why we all often go there – both our State Duma colleagues and my colleagues in the Government – not because Crimea has a good climate but because this territory is significantly behind our country. Significantly behind. Our goal is to make up for ground lost in the last 25 years, so that we don’t regret later the decisions that have been made. This is especially important, which is why I opened my presentation with it, despite the fact there was no question about Crimea in the questions that were put to me in writing.

    The reunification of Crimea has influenced the economy. There is practically no economic sector that hasn’t been affected by some or other political measures, from the financial sphere and restrictions on access to foreign credit to technology imports. Losses caused by these restrictions are considerable, let’s not conceal them. As estimated by a number of experts, Russia has suffered damage worth about 25 billion euros, or 1.5 percent of the GDP. In 2015, this damage may increase several times over.

    But, certainly, the economic consequences of the Crimean decision would have been easier if a number of internal problems had not piled up in the economy, problems that we had failed to solve. And this should be admitted frankly as well. All regions in this country have felt in full measure the repercussions of the deteriorating foreign economic situation and foreign policy upheavals. Budget revenues have sunk, while expenditures have, on the contrary, risen.


    Seph can you please go to to government.ru and put the statement link because as a newbie I can't yet do it.

    So Free Media strikes again, I though this site would only have "first hand sources" in these matters, to avoid "Ahmadinejading" moments.

    Pleasr pm me. Ill do it but im on my phone at work atm.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  Kimppis on Thu Apr 23, 2015 3:19 pm

    sepheronx wrote:I am also curious how it will cost Russia money when they cannot buy western goods? Can someone explain that to me? Was the import business worth $75B? Cause when you purchase your own made goods, you GAIN revenue. Logically, what your media ia claiming that medvedev said, sure does not sound right. $75B, does that also include debt repayment? If so, that doesnt count.

    Aaand... exactly. Why talk about GDP percentages? Doesn't make much sense.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  sepheronx on Thu Apr 23, 2015 3:22 pm

    Kimppis wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:I am also curious how it will cost Russia money when they cannot buy western goods? Can someone explain that to me? Was the import business worth $75B? Cause when you purchase your own made goods, you GAIN revenue. Logically, what your media ia claiming that medvedev said, sure does not sound right. $75B, does that also include debt repayment? If so, that doesnt count.

    Aaand... exactly. Why talk about GDP percentages? Doesn't make much sense.

    Thats OK bro. Seems finnish media and radio free garbage striked again as Kotemor proved it wrong.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  KoTeMoRe on Thu Apr 23, 2015 3:23 pm

    Kimppis wrote:Something doesn't add up, that's for sure. 2-4% (or whatever) decrease in GDP, mostly due to oil price vs. sanctions take "4.8% of GDP".

    And last year Russian economy grew by 0.6%, if I'm not mistaken... And even that was mostly because of oil, right? It's not like Russian economy was going to grow 0.6% + 1.5% (Medvedev's figure) + whatever they lost due to oil (which should me way more than the sanctions!) in 2014 before the whole crisis.

    The economy grew because of State intervention yes. And because the Oil prices were well above the 90 USD threshold up until November. Furthermore the USD started appreciating last winter which in return gave the Russian fund more value in regards to Euro. That probably was used by wealthy Russians to bet against RUB and EUR.

    So basically indeed the Ru economy was going to do a lot better if everything would have stayed the same (oil over 115 USD and Euro at 1.25 vs USD). Because unlike you might think Russia has expanded its oil exports albeit the oil costs less.




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