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    Russian Economy General News: #4

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    max steel
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  max steel on Sun Apr 19, 2015 8:21 pm

    I know Eric kraus . let me know what suggestions you want to give on his article I'll let him know .

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  kvs on Sun Apr 19, 2015 8:28 pm

    Hannibal Barca wrote:But this is pretty much what happened.

    No.  The US doesn't get to count the GDP of India and other members of the Commonwealth.    The 50% of world GDP
    is an idiotic claim.

    http://socialdemocracy21stcentury.blogspot.ca/2012/09/us-real-per-capita-gdp-from-18702001.html

    http://ourworldindata.org/data/growth-and-distribution-of-prosperity/gdp-growth-over-the-last-centuries/



    There was no growth in the US between 1905 and 1945 that would support this claim.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  kvs on Sun Apr 19, 2015 8:42 pm

    http://www.paradoxian.org/hoi2wiki/index.php/GDP_statistics

    Comparison of the 1990 US dollars GDP of select countries in 1938-1945:

    1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945

    United States 800 869 943 1094 1235 1399 1499 1474
    United Kingdom 284 287 316 344 353 361 346 331
    France 186 199 164 130 116 110 93 101
    Italy 141 151 147 144 145 137 117 92
    Soviet Union 359 366 417 359 274 305 362 343
    Germany 351 384 387 412 417 426 437 310
    Austria 24 27 27 29 27 28 29 12
    Japan 169 184 192 196 197 194 189 144

    In 1945, the US was $1474 billion and the others were $1333 billion. If the US was 50% of the world GDP then
    the whole of the rest of the world was exactly $141 billion. Ludicrous.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  Kimppis on Mon Apr 20, 2015 12:40 am

    kvs wrote:
    Austin wrote:Enter the Dragon and the Bear: US Faces Its Ultimate Nightmare – Eric Kraus

    The expert elaborated that in 1945 the United States alone accounted for slightly more than 50 percent of global GDP.

    This is utter BS.  The US had a GDP much smaller than Russia 1905.   So in 40 years it grew to be half the GDP of the world?  This on top
    of the Great Depression of the 1930s that saw US GDP fall by 25%.   Total, unmitigated nonsense of a claim.    It looks like some
    clown discounted the USSR to zero since it was not a market economy and transferred the whole of the British Empire GDP to be
    that of US domestic GDP.  attack

    What are you talking about? It's common knowledge that the US was the largest economy since the 1880s, or so. I don't think that GDP was widely used in those times (it probably didn't even exist back then), industial production was the main measurement. And US was certainly number 1 in 1905. It was until China overtook it in around 2008 (and by PPP GDP last year). However, British Empire as a whole was larger until the 1920s, IIRC. And US economy grew MASSIVELY during WW2. That's the American way. They're exceptional (EDIT: I meant "exceptional").

    kvs wrote:http://www.paradoxian.org/hoi2wiki/index.php/GDP_statistics

    Comparison of the 1990 US dollars GDP of select countries in 1938-1945:

                         1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945

    United States 800 869 943 1094 1235 1399 1499 1474
    United Kingdom 284 287 316 344 353 361 346 331
    France        186 199 164 130 116 110 93 101
    Italy                141 151 147 144 145 137 117 92
    Soviet Union 359 366 417 359 274 305 362 343
    Germany        351 384 387 412 417 426 437 310
    Austria         24 27 27 29 27 28 29 12
    Japan        169 184 192 196 197 194 189 144  

    In 1945, the US was $1474 billion and the others were $1333 billion.   If the US was 50% of the world GDP then
    the whole of the rest of the world was exactly $141 billion.  Ludicrous.  

    And that's probably pretty close to the truth. Smile I think it was 45% or something, so almost 50%. Or maybe it was about industrial production in dollar terms. In any case, it was due to ww2 and didn't last.


    Last edited by Kimppis on Mon Apr 20, 2015 1:12 am; edited 1 time in total

    max steel
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  max steel on Mon Apr 20, 2015 12:46 am

    " US economy grew MASSIVELY during WW2. That's the American way. They're expectional. "


    All other industrial nations were destroyed in ww2 and america was left only remaining industralized nation . What so exceptional about it ? Duh .

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  collegeboy16 on Mon Apr 20, 2015 1:03 am

    kvs wrote:
    The expert elaborated that in 1945 the United States alone accounted for slightly more than 50 percent of global GDP.

    This is utter BS.  The US had a GDP much smaller than Russia 1905.   So in 40 years it grew to be half the GDP of the world?  This on top
    of the Great Depression of the 1930s that saw US GDP fall by 25%.   Total, unmitigated nonsense of a claim.    It looks like some
    clown discounted the USSR to zero since it was not a market economy and transferred the whole of the British Empire GDP to be
    that of US domestic GDP.  attack

    carnegie, rockefeller, morgan and ford dont ring any bells?
    Russian Empire is very much agricultural economy back in 1905 and America is probably most industrialized country by that time thanks to these people so yeah even then its GDP is bigger.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  Kimppis on Mon Apr 20, 2015 1:10 am

    max steel wrote:" US economy grew MASSIVELY during WW2. That's the American way. They're expectional. "


    All other industrial nations were destroyed in ww2 and america was left only remaining industralized nation . What so exceptional about it ? Duh .

    Exactly. Smile That was... sarcasm, or something.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  max steel on Mon Apr 20, 2015 1:22 am

    Kimpis did you vote today ?

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  kvs on Mon Apr 20, 2015 3:05 am

    collegeboy16 wrote:
    kvs wrote:
    The expert elaborated that in 1945 the United States alone accounted for slightly more than 50 percent of global GDP.

    This is utter BS.  The US had a GDP much smaller than Russia 1905.   So in 40 years it grew to be half the GDP of the world?  This on top
    of the Great Depression of the 1930s that saw US GDP fall by 25%.   Total, unmitigated nonsense of a claim.    It looks like some
    clown discounted the USSR to zero since it was not a market economy and transferred the whole of the British Empire GDP to be
    that of US domestic GDP.  attack

    carnegie, rockefeller, morgan and ford dont ring any bells?
    Russian Empire is very much agricultural economy back in 1905 and America is probably most industrialized country by that time thanks to these people so yeah even then its GDP is bigger.

    Since you never heard of Russian industrialists, then they must not have existed.   What you are repeating is the mythology the US propaganda
    machine has pulled over the world during the cold war.   That America was always number one.  Utter BS.

    http://www.rus-stat.ru/eng/index.php?vid=1&year=2002&id=9

    In 1900 Russia mined 10,4 million tons of oil, 12,0 million tons of coal, 5,5 million tons of iron ore, produced 2,5 million tons of cast iron, 2,3 million tons of steel, 1,9 million tons of rolled metal, 8200 tons of copper, 38,8 tons of gold and 5,1 tons of platinum, 1100 steam locomotives and 33300 cars, 21,5 million tons of grain, 1,2 million tons of sugar. Based on these and other 27 indices Russia stayed among three of the most industrial countries in the world. By the total technical and economic development Russia was placed in the fifth place in the world, by the volume of national wealth – 60,3 billion gold rubles – it was also in the fifth place.


    Russian GDP growth hit 10% per year around 1909.  I tried to find a good reference but I get junk that is not credible, which is most
    of what Google searches dig up.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  collegeboy16 on Mon Apr 20, 2015 6:25 am

    ok, i see your point - i am not really that knowledgeable about this period in Russian history as I should be, just the major developments.

    Kimppis
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  Kimppis on Mon Apr 20, 2015 9:43 am

    max steel wrote:Kimpis did you vote today ?

    Yes. Smile And I certainly didn't vote for a pro-NATO candidate. I don't think they were "NATO-elections" though. Even then, the pro-NATO party lost, so I guess that means something. Among Finns, 25-30% want to join NATO, 45% are against, so overall it doesn't seem to bad. I just don't like the fact that our populist/nationalist/anti-immigration party became the second largest. It really seems to be a Europe-wide phenomenon. Atleast those parties seem to be somewhat against NATO and US foreign policy (however, True Finns party, not so much), so I hope their popularity will enable Europeans to kick the US and US Army out of Europe.

    kvs wrote:Since you never heard of Russian industrialists, then they must not have existed.   What you are repeating is the mythology the US propaganda
    machine has pulled over the world during the cold war.   That America was always number one.  Utter BS.

    http://www.rus-stat.ru/eng/index.php?vid=1&year=2002&id=9

    In 1900 Russia mined 10,4 million tons of oil, 12,0 million tons of coal, 5,5 million tons of iron ore, produced 2,5 million tons of cast iron, 2,3 million tons of steel, 1,9 million tons of rolled metal, 8200 tons of copper, 38,8 tons of gold and 5,1 tons of platinum, 1100 steam locomotives and 33300 cars, 21,5 million tons of grain, 1,2 million tons of sugar. Based on these and other 27 indices Russia stayed among three of the most industrial countries in the world. By the total technical and economic development Russia was placed in the fifth place in the world, by the volume of national wealth – 60,3 billion gold rubles – it was also in the fifth place.


    Russian GDP growth hit 10% per year around 1909.  I tried to find a good reference but I get junk that is not credible, which is most
    of what Google searches dig up.

    Russia's total economic output was pretty big and growing fast, that's true. But on a per capita basis, still limited. 1. US (by a wide margin, the main point still stands), 2. Germany, 3. UK, 4. France (?), 5. Russia. Sounds about right.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  Viktor on Mon Apr 20, 2015 6:31 pm

    Nice thumbsup

    CBR resumed buying gold in reserve

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  sepheronx on Mon Apr 20, 2015 8:58 pm

    http://sputniknews.com/europe/20150420/1021135948.html

    So company letterone, who recently purchased offshore british wells, is being forced to sell its wells or face license revoke. So I suppose british companies in Russia should be subjected to the same?

    British government pukes. World Trade my arse. WTO is a farce.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  max steel on Mon Apr 20, 2015 9:42 pm

    sepheronx wrote:http://sputniknews.com/europe/20150420/1021135948.html

    So company letterone, who recently purchased offshore british wells, is being forced to sell its wells or face license revoke. So I suppose british companies in Russia should be subjected to the same?

    British government pukes. World Trade my arse. WTO is a farce.

    lol! read this : As Gazprom CEO Arrives In Athens, EU (Coincidentally) Files Anti-Trust Charges Against Russian Giant . Why would anyone want to do business in Europe when you'll just get bitch-slapped for political reasons?



    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-20/gazprom-ceo-arrives-athens-eu-coincidentally-files-anti-trust-charges-against-russia


    The EU forced Greece and Bulgaria to play the game according to the interests of the Western big companies . The failure of selling the Greek gas company (DEPA) to Russians, was not accidental, since in this case, Gasprom would have become the basic stakeholder of the Greek-Bulgarian pipeline IGB, in which the Greek company participates. And this means that the supply of Bulgaria and Romania with gas from Azerbaijan would be impossible. The 180 degree turn of European Commission is characteristic, since, while appeared at the start supporting fully the Nabucco pipeline, subsequently withdrew its support, since Nabucco was no longer competitive against Russian interests pipeline South Stream.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  max steel on Mon Apr 20, 2015 10:35 pm

    Kimppis wrote:

    Yes. Smile And I certainly didn't vote for a pro-NATO candidate. I don't think they were "NATO-elections" though. Even then, the pro-NATO party lost, so I guess that means something. Among Finns, 25-30% want to join NATO, 45% are against, so overall it doesn't seem to bad. I just don't like the fact that our populist/nationalist/anti-immigration party became the second largest. It really seems to be a Europe-wide phenomenon. Atleast those parties seem to be somewhat against NATO and US foreign policy (however, True Finns party, not so much), so I hope their popularity will enable Europeans to kick the US and US Army out of Europe.

    Off Topic

    NWO won the Finnish elections :- Opposite Center Party won by landslide but an earthquake was needed, did not materialize. Conservative Party (Stubb) lost greatly but not enough to qualify it as a catastrophe. Stubb personally lost half of his votes compared to last elections. The small Swedish People's Party of hawkish defense minister Haglund held its positions. Paradoxically the party gained support from the ultra-nationalist far-right Finns who are impressed by Haglund’s fierce anti-Russian policies. – My assessment: There will be a NWO government, with Center Party, Conservative Party (Stubb), True Finns Party (Soini) and Swedish People’s Party (Haglund). The opportunistic – and utterly devoid of any content - chairman of the Center Party Juha Sipila will be the Prime Minister. Stubb will become foreign minister and Haglund will continue as minister of war preparations. This would leave Soini from True Finns with the ministry of finance, but as a true populist he might not want to take that responsibility. – The True Finns Party is a faux-anti-EU party, which in fact is there only to suck in the protest votes in support of the Euro-elite, the way Zhirinovski is collecting the protest vote in Russia in favor of the government.
    The PM in spe Sipila has said during the campaign that he thinks Finland should not join NATO but anyway left the door open for that. He will for sure be pulled in by Stubb and Haglund – and your propaganda media - through that door left ajar.
    Nothing good awaits Finland, the economy will keep deteriorating, unemployment and poverty will grow and relations with Russia will be finally destroyed beyond repair. So in next elections all these parties will lose. – If there will be any more elections.


    Very inaccurate analysis of Finnish elections are spread in the international and Russian media. Here some comments.

    - It is an exagerration to say that the opposition has won. In Finland we have very many parties and they have to form coalition governments. In the outgoing government we had 6 parties. The opposition Center party won 5% more votes than in previous elections, but that gives them only 25% of seats in the parliament. The ruling Conservative party of Prime minister Stubb lost only 2%. Most likely (I expect) the Center party and Conservative party will form the new government together with the True Finns party and the Swedish People’s party of the present rabidly anti-Russian NATO hawk, Carl Haglund (defense minister in present government).
    - The Center party is equally pro-EU as the Conservative party, they are not equally fanatically pro-NATO, but all the same pro-Nato, and the NATO skeptical candidates of the party all lost. The True Finns party are faux-EU sceptics and also very pro-NATO. Most likely all these 3 parties with addition of the Swedish People's party will form the government and therw will be no change in the politics
    - We can expect no change in Finland’s foreign politics. The anti-Russian, pro-NATO politics will continue
    - The new government will not be able to offer any alternative for the economic politics either. Most likely they will cut the budget but that will only increase unemployment and poverty. Finland will go towards economic and political ruin with that kind of a new government
    - Sipila is a total opportunist, he has no own political line, he just wanted to be prime minister. In election campaign he said very little and tried to please everyone. Finland’s population are against sanctions and against NATO therefore Sipila gave some statements that would please that electorate, but at the same time he said we must leave open the possibility to join NATO, this means he actually will go for it if the West forces him to it. He has made no significant statements that he would be against sanctions. I am sure there will be no change in this respect. Only thing is that Sipila will behave himself more diplomatically than the rabidly anti-Russian and low-bred Stubb. But that will not make big difference as Stubb will be the foreign minister (I expect)
    - In fact present PM Stubb's party did not do so bad, they only lost 2%, although he personally lost half of the votes compared with previous elections. He could have lost much more but Finland’s propaganda media was very much helping him, and also the very lackluster performance of Sipila. A stronger opposition leader would have won much more


    Anti-NATO parties grab top spots in Finland general election lol!
    http://rt.com/news/251065-finland-election-centre-party/


    Really embarrassing that RT writes such bull... (Correctly speaking it is whimsical feelgood reporting). The parties winning the Finnish elections are in no way anti-NATO, on the contrary they are pro-NATO. They have just been adapting their political message to the public opinion which is anti-NATO. (It is very easy to manipulate the public opinion in Finland considering that the totalitarian propaganda media will not challenge them). The winning Center party chairman Sipila has said that he does not favor NATO membership "at this point" but "that possibility must be left open". What kind of anti-NATO is that? The position of the True Finns party chairman Soini is similar, but in deeds he has been more actively pro-NATO. His party chaired the parliamentary committee that fasttracked in 2014 in an unconstitutional fashion the so-called Host Country agreement with NATO, the stated aim of which is to create NATO bases in Finland. This in full connivance with the Center party which has not in any way protested. - RT should not give air to its wishful thinking. These parties are not anti-NATO but rather less publicly manifestly pro-NATO

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  Vann7 on Mon Apr 20, 2015 11:55 pm

    Findland cannot be part of NATO... if they do.. and a major world war start..

    Russian nukes ,the first strike will be on Findland NATO bases.. The only way Findland
    could become a NATO member is treason , that the leaders are bribed enough billions ,
    with resorts and properties promises in Miami florida ,to put their nation security under a Big
    Risk.. Not remembering world war 2... how Findland joining the side of the enemies of Russia cost them a very big price ..in being invaded and attacked by Russia . Last time a nation at Russian Borders , aligned with NATO even by their hostile actions, they lost territory..  that is the case of Georgia and Ukraine.. and it will be the case of Findland too..

    In the same way United States will never allow CAnada or Mexico ,to be armed by russia to threaten their nation security.. in the same way Russia will not allow its bordering nation
    to threaten theirs.. and in case of any war.. such countries will be the first ones to be attacked.

    In other news.. NATO generals are openly now threatening with attacking RUssia ,
    if case of any military conflict.. now what that exactly means it doesn't matter.. is a provocation
    of NATO that will only escalate with time and time.. until we see a major war..
     

    The head of the Main Operation Directorate of the General Staff has warned that in the case of a military conflict, critical facilities on the territory of “almost the entire European part of Russia will be vulnerable to NATO’s air attack, with the flight time of the missiles reduced by half.”

    http://rt.com/news/251229-nato-tornado-drills-estonia/


    Of course in any of such provocations the americans will not be present.. just like they did
    in Georgia.. the americans will never go in the front line against Russia.. and instead their tactic
    is to get others do the fighting for them.. Why Findland people need to be concerned that joining NATO will mean ,that Findland will be in the front line in any war provoked by americans
    and that they will be left alone.. as it happened to Ukraine or Georgia..

    It was Poroshenko who told..that he doesn't understand.. why Americans helps IRAQ with their airforce and IRAQ is not a NATO member and not an ally ,but Ukraine that is close to them..
    and have some association does not receive the support Americans give to IRAQ.. OF course
    Poroshenko never understood that Americans will never go to a war they cannot win and can be
    defeated.. So this is the major problem with the nations bordering Russia.. that do not see the
    danger that will be for them ,to be a NATO member and that US provoke Russia into a war with them.. The americans will be capable of sinking their own allies warships and later blame it on Russia.. just to get both nations into a fight. US have long history of supplying weapons to both sides of the conflict they help provoke.. IRAN and IRAQ war is the best classical example.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  kvs on Tue Apr 21, 2015 3:13 am

    http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showpost.php?p=123379432&postcount=21520

    The original article is behind a paywall but is quoted in the above post (in Russian).

    This is how Russians are being brainwashed by their own media, which is spreading western misinformation.
    The paper is Vedemosti and it quotes some BS Bloomberg consensus to predict a big GDP drop in the
    first quarter of 2015.



    It even attributes this forecast to the Russian Statics Agency (GKS). What brazen fraud. GKS has made
    no such forecast. I can't find a single reference to such a figure on the GKS webpage (in Russian).

    NATO propagandists would have you believe that the Russian media is controlled by Putin. The above
    is proof that this is a lie. And has been a lie since the 1990s.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  sepheronx on Tue Apr 21, 2015 3:52 am

    what was the GDP of 2015 Q1?

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  par far on Tue Apr 21, 2015 9:00 am

    sepheronx wrote:http://sputniknews.com/europe/20150420/1021135948.html

    So company letterone, who recently purchased offshore british wells, is being forced to sell its wells or face license revoke. So I suppose british companies in Russia should be subjected to the same?

    British government pukes. World Trade my arse. WTO is a farce.
    o


    The Russian government needs to start doing the same.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  par far on Tue Apr 21, 2015 9:05 am

    max steel wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:http://sputniknews.com/europe/20150420/1021135948.html

    So company letterone, who recently purchased offshore british wells, is being forced to sell its wells or face license revoke. So I suppose british companies in Russia should be subjected to the same?

    British government pukes. World Trade my arse. WTO is a farce.

    lol!  read this : As Gazprom CEO Arrives In Athens, EU (Coincidentally) Files Anti-Trust Charges Against Russian Giant  .  Why would anyone want to do business in Europe when you'll just get bitch-slapped for political reasons?  



    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-20/gazprom-ceo-arrives-athens-eu-coincidentally-files-anti-trust-charges-against-russia


    The EU forced Greece and Bulgaria to play the game according to the interests of the Western big companies . The failure of selling the Greek gas company (DEPA) to Russians, was not accidental, since in this case, Gasprom would have become the basic stakeholder of the Greek-Bulgarian pipeline IGB, in which the Greek company participates. And this means that the supply of Bulgaria and Romania with gas from Azerbaijan would be impossible. The 180 degree turn of European Commission is characteristic, since, while appeared at the start supporting fully the Nabucco pipeline, subsequently withdrew its support, since Nabucco was no longer competitive against Russian interests pipeline South Stream.


    The jokes on them, if they file a lawsuit against the Russian giant, then the Russian giant can raise the price of gas. Then EU is just paying off their own lawsuit LOL.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  Werewolf on Tue Apr 21, 2015 9:18 am

    kvs wrote:http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showpost.php?p=123379432&postcount=21520

    The original article is behind a paywall but is quoted in the above post (in Russian).

    This is how Russians are being brainwashed by their own media, which is spreading western misinformation.
    The paper is Vedemosti and it quotes some BS Bloomberg consensus to predict a big GDP drop in the
    first quarter of 2015.



    It even attributes this forecast to the Russian Statics Agency (GKS).   What brazen fraud.   GKS has made
    no such forecast.   I can't find a single reference to such a figure on the GKS webpage (in Russian).

    NATO propagandists would have you believe that the Russian media is controlled by Putin.   The above
    is proof that this is a lie.   And has been a lie since the 1990s.

    Vedemosti is financed by US NGO's.


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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  Viktor on Tue Apr 21, 2015 6:36 pm

    Ever increasing numbers joining in Russian SWIFT Very Happy

    To Russian peers joined SWIFT 168 banks

    and other good news

    Russian LNG sector is catching up departing train

    Budget spending limit decline in GDP by 3%

    Dvorkovich: Russia is planning to agree on gas supplies to China via the western route

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  Viktor on Tue Apr 21, 2015 8:18 pm

    And it was about time russia

    Duma adopted in the I reading the law on credit rating agencies

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  Hannibal Barca on Tue Apr 21, 2015 11:01 pm

    sepheronx wrote:what was the GDP of 2015 Q1?


    If I am not very much mistaken +0.8%

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  magnumcromagnon on Wed Apr 22, 2015 4:02 am

    Eurasia as we (and the U.S.) knew it is dead

    By Pepe Escobar

    Move over, Cold War 2.0. The real story, now and for the foreseeable future, in its myriad declinations, and of course, ruling out too many bumps in the road, is a new, integrated Eurasia forging ahead.

    China’s immensely ambitious New Silk Road project will keep intersecting with the Russia-led Eurasia Economic Union (EEC). And that will be the day when the EU wakes up and finds a booming trade/commerce axis stretching from St. Petersburg to Shanghai. It’s always pertinent to remember that Vladimir Putin sold a similar, and even more encompassing, vision in Germany a few years ago – stretching from Lisbon to Vladivostok.

    It will take time – and troubled times. But Eurasia’s radical face lift is inexorable. This implies an exceptionalist dream – the U.S. as Eurasia hegemon, something that still looked feasible at the turn of the millennium – fast dissolving right before anyone’s eyes.

    Russia pivots East, China pivots West

    A few sound minds in the U.S. remain essential as they fully deconstruct the negatives, pointing to the dangers of Cold War 2.0. The Carnegie Moscow Center’s Dmitri Trenin, meanwhile, is more concerned with the positives, proposing a road map for Eurasian convergence.

    The Russia-China strategic partnership – from energy trade to defense and infrastructure development – will only solidify, as Russia pivots East and China pivots West. Geopolitically, this does not mean a Moscow subordinated to Beijing, but a rising symbiotic relationship, painstakingly developed in multiple stages.

    The BRICs – that dirty word in Washington – already have way more global appeal, and as much influence as the outdated G-7. The BRIC New Development Bank, ready to start before the end of 2015, is a key alternative to G7-controlled mechanisms and the IMF.

    The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is bound to include India and Pakistan at their upcoming summer summit in Russia, and Iran’s inclusion, post-sanctions as an official member, would be virtually a done deal by 2016. The SCO is finally blossoming as the key development, political/economic cooperation and security forum across Asia.

    Putin’s “greater Europe” from Lisbon to Vladivostok – which would mean the EU + EEC – may be on hold while China turbo-charges the its New Silk Road in both its overland and maritime routes. Meanwhile, the Kremlin will concentrate on a parallel strategy – to use East Asian capital and technology to develop Siberia and the Russian Far East. The yuan is bound to become a reserve currency across Eurasia in the very near future, as the ruble and the yuan are about to rule for good in bilateral trade.

    The German factor

    “Greater Europe” from Lisbon to Vladivostok inevitably depends on a solution to the German puzzle. German industrialists clearly see the marvels of Russia providing Germany – much more than the EU as a whole – with a privileged geopolitical and strategic channel to Asia-Pacific. However, the same does not apply as yet to German politicos. Chancellor Angela Merkel, whatever her rhetoric, keeps toeing the Washington line.

    The Russian Pipelineistan strategy was already in place – via Nord Stream and South Stream – when interminable EU U-turns led Moscow to cancel South Stream and launch Turk Stream (which will, in the end, increase energy costs for the EU). The EU, in exchange, would have virtually free access to Russia’s wealth of resources, and internal market. The Ukraine disaster means the end of all these elaborate plans.

    Germany is already the defacto EU conductor for this economic express train. As an export powerhouse, its only way to go is not West or South, but East. Thus, the portentous spectacle of an orchestra of salivating industrialists when Xi Jinping went to Germany in the spring of 2104. Xi proposed no less than a high-speed rail line linking the New Silk Road from Shanghai to Duisburg and Berlin.

    A key point which shouldn’t be lost on Germans: a vital branch of the New Silk Road is the Trans-Siberian high-speed rail remix. So one of the yellow BRIC roads to Beijing and Shanghai boasts Moscow as a strategic pit stop.

    That Empire of Chaos …

    Beijing’s Go West strategy overland is blissfully free of hyperpower meddling – from the Trans-Siberian remix to the rail/road routes across the Central Asian “stans” all the way to Iran and Turkey. Moreover, Russia sees it as a symbiosis, considering a win-win as Central Asian stans jump simultaneously aboard the EEU and what Beijing dubs the Silk Road Economic Belt.

    On other fronts, meanwhile, Beijing is very careful to not antagonize the U.S., the reigning hyperpower. See for instance this quite frank but also quite diplomatic interview to the Financial Times by Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang.

    One key aspect of the Russia-China strategic partnership is that both identify Washington’s massively incoherent foreign policy as a prime breeder of chaos – exactly as I argue in my book Empire of Chaos.

    In what applies specifically to China and Russia, it’s essentially chaos as in divide and rule. Beijing sees Washington trying to destabilize China’s periphery (Hong Kong, Tibet, Xinjiang), and actively interfering in the South China Sea disputes. Moscow sees Washington obsessed with the infinite expansion of NATO and taking no prisoners in preventing Russia’s efforts at Eurasian integration.

    Thus, the certified death of Russia’s previous geopolitical strategy. No more trying to feel included in an elite Western club such as the G-8. No more strategic partnership with NATO.

    Always expert at planning well in advance, Beijing also sees how Washington’s relentless demonization of not only Putin, but Russia as a whole (as in submit or else), constitute a trial run on what might be applied against China in the near future.

    Meet the imponderables

    All bets are off on how the fateful U.S.-China-Russia triangle will evolve. Arguably, it may take the following pattern: The Americans talk loud and carry an array of sticks; the Russians are not shy to talk back while silently preparing strategically for a long, difficult haul; the Chinese follow a modified “Little Helmsman” Deng Xiaoping doctrine – talk very diplomatically while no longer keeping a low profile.

    Beijing’s already savvy to what Moscow has been whispering: Exceptionalist Washington – in decline or not – will never treat Beijing as an equal or respect Chinese national interests.

    In the great Imponderables chapter, bets are still accepted on whether Moscow will use this serious, triple threat crisis – sanctions, oil price war, ruble devaluation – to radically apply structural game changers and launch a new strategy of economic development. Putin’s recent Q&A, although crammed with intriguing answers, still isn’t clear on this.

    Other great imponderable is whether Xi, armed with soft power, charisma and lots of cash, will be able to steer, simultaneously, the tweaking of the economic model and a Go West avalanche that does not end up alienating China’s multiple potential partners in building the New Silk roads.

    A final, super-imponderable is whether (or when, if ever) Brussels will decide to undertake a mutually agreed symbiosis with Russia. This, vs. its current posture of total antagonism that extends beyond geopolitical issues. Germany, under Merkel, seems to have made the choice to remain submitted to NATO, and thus, a strategic midget.

    So what we have here is the makings of a Greater Asia from Shanghai to St. Petersburg – including, crucially, Tehran – instead of a Total Eurasia that extends from Lisbon to Vladivostok. Total Eurasia may be broken, at least for now. But Greater Asia is a go. There will be a tsunami of efforts by the usual suspects, to also break it up.

    All this will be fascinating to watch. How will Moscow and Beijing stare down the West – politically, commercially and ideologically – without risking a war? How will they cope with so much pressure? How will they sell their strategy to great swathes of the Global South, across multiple Asian latitudes?

    One battle, though, is already won. Bye, bye Zbigniew Brzezinski. Your grand chessboard hegemonic dream is over.

    Eurasia as we (and the U.S.) knew it is dead

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