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    Russian Economy General News: #4

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    par far
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    Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  par far on Sun Jan 04, 2015 7:45 pm

    Vann7 wrote:
    par far wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:
    flamming_python wrote:Is there any proof for the government buying up those shares? Some official statements or info from another source?

    Forgive me but all these 'Putin's grandmaster thinking cannot be fully comprehended by us mere mortals' articles don't inspire believability.

    They are not going to outright say it, and I do believe some of the comments are exaggerated, but I theorized prior to this events that Rus gov would allow companies and stocks to go under and buy them back at a mere fraction of the cost. Seems this is what they did. But there is still over $500B of private debt that will either need tk default on or something else.



    What happens if they default?

    Then the Russian Government will take control of those companies..take control of those companies for pennies
    and nationalize them..all done legally. The Government debt is very small.. the major debt is private companies with assests in the west.  As long As Russian Banks and Government have income..and can pay their debt is they have any.. then Russia will survive any crisis..  But the most important business Banks and Energy. that were under pressure and risk.are now safe... and in controls of the government. But i don't think they will want to carry all their business on their shoulders.. and instead will finance them..  

    But in real practice.. Russia government have the resources to Nationalize all their private industry and take control of it.. become some kind of new COmmunism.. under capitalism.  Russia have close to 400$billion reserves  and  and a lot of things to sell that everyone needs.. from Energy to Company shares to technology. But having control of all Rosfnet is a BIG plus ,because the income will go completely to Russian government. and this will allow them to better handle the oil crisis without burning their gold reserves.  So yes Oil now is at ~$50 more or less..  but Russian government profits are now up to 50% higher. Wink  This means that the margin of profit is even smaller now..
    Russian government could be selling oil at $30 or $20 and still make profit.. Obviously an adjustment of Russian budget and spending will have to be reduced.

    It was all planned... the attack on the ruble was not Russia initiative ..but US and Saudi Arabia.. then Russia decided
    to allow the west to near collapse the ruble and then buy back all their energy shares from the hands of americans and europeans. Russia will be very rich selling cheap energy once they build pipelines through all Asia.. China/India/South korea and Japan. And Saudi Arabia will be doomed.


    What is an irony is that American and European investors.. that lost their energy shares for panic..thinking Russia economy will collapse.. are victims of their own western media... however Russian media if you look how they reported everything from Dec1 to dec 16.. was not a lot different from how CNN did it..  I remember clearly how the
    chairman of the central bank told "They lost control of the ruble" and that people need to adjust to a new reality..
    and just hours later.. Medvedev says they have Enough resources to REVERSE the ruble performance and that is value at that time. .was not based on reality but on emotions..  Cool   (emotions that they helped to create)...
    People are still looking for those mysterious speculators destroying the Ruble  lol1   they were all duped into thinking Russia had no control of the ruble.. to allow them buy very cheap their energy shares.


    In other news.. it seems INDIA is now target of the western elite.. they are spreading panic about the safety of
    Indian airliners.. about rumors of terrorist that will hijack their planes.. Pretty much USA is on a full scale economic
    warfare against  BRICS nations.. All this planes falling form the sky is economic warfare against their airlines. and their economy..  it was Malaysia the only nation who did a trial for warcrimes against BUSH for the IRAQ invasion.
    I hope they do one against Obama for the SYria and Ukraine war. Smile



    They have been waging economic warfare against India for a while now, hope India is ready. How do you stop economic warfare against airlines? Do start hitting their airlines(you can't be on defensive all the time?  

    TR1
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  TR1 on Sun Jan 04, 2015 10:32 pm

    Zhirinovsky has said far worse.

    Mainstream Russian politicians have said similar things about Chechnya- and these are supposed to THEIR people!



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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  Kyo on Sun Jan 04, 2015 11:39 pm

    TR1 wrote:Zhirinovsky has said far worse.

    Mainstream Russian politicians have said similar things about Chechnya- and these are supposed to THEIR people!



    But Zhirinovsky and those Mainstream Russian politicians have never been (and will never be) in charge of the world affairs in the US State Department.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  AbsoluteZero on Mon Jan 05, 2015 4:54 am

    More anti-Russian fearmongering from AFP

    Russia 'may face chaos' if extra sanctions imposed: Germany]

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  TR1 on Mon Jan 05, 2015 5:20 am

    Indeed, they seem less dangerous to the world as a whole, humoursly enough.

    But I was responding to Rmf saying he hasn't heard Russian politicians say anything worse...dig a little you will find some very shocking statements.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  sepheronx on Mon Jan 05, 2015 6:59 am

    AbsoluteZero wrote:More anti-Russian fearmongering from AFP

    Russia 'may face chaos' if extra sanctions imposed: Germany]

    Consumption for the idiot masses. They are trying to make it sound like their methods are working (and not being counterproductive to their own economy), but also trying to prevent further sanctions to be "humantarian" rather than really saying "our economy is also faultering, with dozens of billions lost to our companies and economies, and EU is on the brink of decay. So we need to open trade with Russia so they can buy our crap again".

    Western countries are wierd in that they think that if Russia cannot purchase their goods or obtain their cheap fiat credit, that somehow the economy will collapse. But it isnt them holding Russias economy together. Its Russia themselves since Russia is net exporter. As oil and gas drops im value, Russia has to find other areas to make money in. Luckily, Russia still have a strong industrial base.

    What the media portrays and fails to grasp is that they think that EU sanctions means Russia cannot sell. But it is still selling same amount of oil and gas as it was before. Biggest drop in sales was to Ukraine thus drop in export. But in the end, other markets will take over.

    I find these articles both funny and scary. Scary in the context that people actually believe what they are reading and saying in the west. Evident enough in the comments section of that article. Without burden of proof, these people still believe the messages and even when counter arguments with evidence is made, they still manage to cover their ears and ignore anything else. Ignorance is a bliss.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  Austin on Mon Jan 05, 2015 10:55 am

    Funny thing Russia has not even entered in 2015 and the recession ( 4 % GDP drop projected) and Europeans are already panicking as it would be their economy would also be getting seriously impacted .

    Now EU would see the US game and in the end US has nothing to loose economically and its geo-strategic game is at EU expense :rotfl:

    Hollande: economic sanctions against Russia must be stopped

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  Austin on Mon Jan 05, 2015 12:21 pm

    Russian Economy: 15 key figures, which will start in 2015

    0.5 percent of Russia's GDP added at the end of 2014. These are preliminary estimates. According to the calculations of the Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences, the pace of economic growth in our country should not be less than 2-3 per cent per year, or structural problems will only increase.

    2 years in a row in Russia decreased real investment. Last year, it decreased by 3 percent. In 2015, the trend will continue.

    3 per cent of GDP in Russia will lose this year if oil prices stop at no more than $ 60, calculated in the Ministry of Economic Development.

    5 consecutive years of annual inflation in the single digits, which gave the Central Bank base set a goal to reduce it in 2014 to 5 percent. However, in December consumer price inflation exceeded 10 percent. The main driver of inflation was food. But the plans of the Central Bank does not change.

    6 percent, according to the calculations of the Institute "Development Center" NRU "Higher School of Economics", will lose real wages and incomes of the population in 2015. However, there is a more optimistic assessment, but increase the welfare of the average Russian is unlikely to be.

    15.64 per cent per annum was at the end of 2014 the average maximum rate on deposits in the top 10 banks. And until mid-December it ranged from 8.2 to 10.5 percent, the largest contributions to the fact, and not just the banks do not overlap inflation, people preferred to "leave" to rise in price in the currency. But the yield on ruble deposits rose sharply as soon as the Central Bank raised its key interest rate to unprecedented heights.

    17 per cent per annum
    - this is from mid-December key rate of the Bank of Russia. This is the initial price of borrowed money in the economy, the basic parameter that determines the business activity in the country, interest on loans and bank deposits. In 2014, the key rate had to raise six (!) Times, in response to a surge in inflation. A year began with the key rate at 5.5 percent. However, banks continue to borrow from the Central Bank a lot of money.

    $ 20 billion in the form of one percent of foreign debts will have to pay for Russian companies and banks this year, according to statistics from the Central Bank on July 1, 2014. And together with the main duty - 109 billion dollars. Prior to the sanctions business a significant part of the external debt is covered by the new loans abroad. With the closure of the western capital markets this familiar path was blocked, causing increased demand for foreign currency in Russia. And he, in turn, has led to a spike in the ruble.

    61 banks that participated in the deposit insurance system, lost his license in 2014. All depositors received compensation from the insurance Deposit Insurance Agency. For comparison, in 2013, licenses were withdrawn in 27 banks, deposits which were guaranteed by the state within 700 thousand rubles per depositor. License of the bank caused tension in society and flow of public funds in the largest state-owned banks. But experts call "clearing blockages" in the banking sector, held by the Central Bank, is uniquely necessary and useful. And in the summer of 2014 it became clear that the major players are unreliable exhibited the door, turn-by-little, little-known credit institutions play against their clients or against the state.

    1.4 million rubles. Toward the close of 2014 the insurance limit on deposits of individuals in the same bank doubled. The ability of the deposit insurance system to cope with any load can be no doubt: if necessary, the Central Bank will cover the shortfall in the DIA their loans.

    $ 70 per barrel for 2015 will allow the Russian budget to have more income than planned, calculated in the "Development Center" HSE "HSE". Although, the budgeted average price of oil at $ 100 a barrel, it will help the weakened ruble - revenue exporters in terms of the Russian currency even in adverse market conditions will remain solid.

    78 percent added for 2014 in the price of the usual buckwheat. It was the most rapidly rising in price everyday food item at the end of last year.

    Lost $ 111 billion foreign exchange reserves of Russia over the past year. Almost all of this incredible amount burned in the furnace of domestic foreign exchange market in a desperate attempt to support the Central Bank exchange rate. By the beginning of 2014 the international reserves stood at 510.5 billion dollars by the end of the year - 398.9 billion. Nevertheless, the backup volume exchange and gold accumulated by Russia, remains one of the largest in the world. They guarantee another two relatively quiet life in all the turmoil in the country and around it. And there, staring, and oil prices again grow or come true 25-year-old dream of economic diversification.

    $ 130 billion "flowed" from Russia in 2014. This two and a half times more than in 2013. In previous years, economic growth is greatly facilitated by capital inflows.

    87.8 billion Central Bank sold on the domestic market to smooth out fluctuations in the ruble. In November, the Central Bank changed its monetary policy, refused to intervene in the defined boundaries of the corridor of the currency basket, in fact releasing the ruble float freely. And then he backed his sudden intervention. Yet the Central Bank is now mainly affects the rate indirectly through money market rates.

    http://www.rg.ru/2015/01/05/cifri-site-anons.html

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  Austin on Mon Jan 05, 2015 12:25 pm

    One of the major mistakes of CBR was not to let Rouble Free Float in say June 2014 , instead of mid november , thats something they should have done even Putin admitted to this fact iirc.

    Having No Restriction in Movement of currency only benefits Oligarch who would convert rouble to USD/Euro and move out of the country.

    Full Account Convertibility should also be scrapped or restricted to lower amount.


    FUD is being speard that Restricting Currency and Removing Full Account Convertibility will hurt the Economy , its just a canard.

    Many BRICS country having neither of those like India or China or Brazil or South Africa flourish quite well without these two.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  Austin on Mon Jan 05, 2015 1:29 pm


    Sergey Glazyev Blasts Russia Central Bank in Economic Manifesto


    http://russia-insider.com/en/2014/12/13/1861

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  Austin on Mon Jan 05, 2015 1:45 pm

    Analyst: Russia Prepares for Lengthy Confrontation With West, Economic Restructuring

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  sepheronx on Mon Jan 05, 2015 2:41 pm

    Some of those reserves that were so called "lost" in the RG.RU article will come back as it was part of currency repo.

    As well, capital outflow is also has debt being repaid in its accounting. So it really is a flawed measure (also foreign investments as well). Foreigners investments in Russia will dry up though but it will take time.

    Real investments - how and where did they calvulate this drop? Real fixed asset investments in Russia is massive, so even a 3% - 5% drop is nothing. But, I think it should grow though. Hopefully this will improve as import substitution will be in full drive.

    But, I agree, capital controls are needed and a new economic model. Something that entails cheap loans to companies dealing in import substitution and or subsidies like certain breaks in utilities and tariffs on components needed.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  par far on Mon Jan 05, 2015 3:45 pm

    Were the reports that Russia has bought 30% of it's stock back true? Can anyone please confirm this.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  sepheronx on Mon Jan 05, 2015 4:17 pm

    They are true. But good luck finding a source that isnt mainstream news. Like bashneft takeover was only mainstream news.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  par far on Mon Jan 05, 2015 4:31 pm

    sepheronx wrote:They are true. But good luck finding a source that isnt mainstream news. Like bashneft takeover was only mainstream news.


    I knew that the mainstream media would not report it, they just jewish bastards.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  sepheronx on Mon Jan 05, 2015 5:12 pm

    par far wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:They are true. But good luck finding a source that isnt mainstream news. Like bashneft takeover was only mainstream news.


    I knew that the mainstream media would not report it, they just jewish bastards.

    Ok, well it was RT who mentioned it, which is state owned.

    BTW, can we please can the whole "jews are all evil" stereotype? Not all of them are the same. There are people who outright condemn their own government policies in Israel you know.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  flamming_python on Mon Jan 05, 2015 5:59 pm

    There's that Jewish community who go all around the world to preach that Israel is against the Old Testament and that Jews haven't been permitted by God to have their own country. They have visited Iran to meet with such personalities as Ahmedinejad and others. They are very religious, Orthodox Jews who observe all the tenets of their religion. They are also completely anti-Zionist.
    They could live in privilege and acceptance in Israel but instead they choose to dedicate themselves to their cause and are scorned and ostracized by their own people.

    So yeah, Jews are a pretty varied lot. Not that Jews should be judged based on their political views, support or non-support for Israel - anymore than any other people or person should be judged for his political views.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  Vann7 on Tue Jan 06, 2015 12:37 am

    Austin wrote:
    Sergey Glazyev Blasts Russia Central Bank in Economic Manifesto


    http://russia-insider.com/en/2014/12/13/1861

    Ignore that idiot..
    He have been proved wrong.. He told a story of a central bank that conspire against Russia which is BULLSHIT...
    Putin himself backed all central bank actions.. Russia simply let the ruble go very low to buy out all their
    energy shares at hands of the west for pennies.

    He also said that the central bank was blockading Putin orders of a payment national card.. that it was not doing anything.. which is FALSE.. already several news that some banks already testing the card. Ignore Glaziev clown for now.. he knows nothing of Russia or the strategy the Russian Government have for its economy.

    Russian budget will now receive not only half of the income from energy sales ..but most of it now.. Russia central bank also gave loans to all their big companies means the interest will stay in Russia.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  magnumcromagnon on Tue Jan 06, 2015 2:28 am

    Vann7 wrote:
    Austin wrote:
    Sergey Glazyev Blasts Russia Central Bank in Economic Manifesto


    http://russia-insider.com/en/2014/12/13/1861

    Ignore that idiot..
    He have been proved wrong.. He told a story of a central bank that conspire against Russia which is BULLSHIT...
    Putin himself backed all central bank actions.. Russia simply let the ruble go very low to buy out all their
    energy shares at hands of the west for pennies.  

    He also said that the central bank was blockading Putin orders of a payment national  card.. that it was not doing anything.. which is FALSE.. already several news that some banks already testing the card. Ignore Glaziev clown for now.. he knows nothing of Russia or the strategy the Russian Government have for its economy.

    Russian budget will now receive not only half of the income from energy sales ..but most of it now.. Russia central bank also gave loans to all their big companies means the interest will stay in Russia.

    Attacking Glazyev, from the likes of you? Stick to things you know best: clutching straws on things such as the moon landing, and how better looking French ships look compared to Russian ships, claiming the Nazi's and Hitler were the good guys (and you claim to be pro-Russian)... Rolling Eyes

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  NationalRus on Tue Jan 06, 2015 3:23 am

    TR1 wrote:Indeed, they seem less dangerous to the world as a whole, humoursly enough.

    But I was responding to Rmf saying he hasn't heard Russian politicians say anything worse...dig a little you will find some very shocking statements.

    nothing is shoking out of zhirik's mouth everybody knows lol1
    even ramsan seems cool with him again

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  Austin on Tue Jan 06, 2015 12:40 pm

    Brent today is at 51.76 , WTI at 48.86

    http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/

    Rouble is tanking at 63.11

    http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDRUB:CUR


    From the trends I have observed for ever $10 drop in price of Oil ( Brent ) Rouble tanks down by 10-15 Rouble generaly on higher side.

    So its easy to guess now of Brent reaches $40 then Rouble would be around 80

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  sepheronx on Tue Jan 06, 2015 2:39 pm

    Austin wrote:Brent today is at 51.76 , WTI at 48.86

    http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/

    Rouble is tanking at  63.11

    http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDRUB:CUR


    From the trends I have observed for ever $10 drop in price of Oil ( Brent ) Rouble tanks down by 10-15 Rouble generaly on higher side.

    So its easy to guess now of Brent reaches $40 then Rouble would be around 80

    Brent is around 52 and ruble at 62. I guess now it makes it easier to figure out rubles value.

    At least it keeps them safe at lower oil prices. Also means it will now definately help local producers since it will hurt imports.

    I wonder why Rial didnt end up this way and instead went the route of being lower valued than NK currency? Ruble was over valued at 34rub/usd. Guess once it free floated, this is its true value.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  AbsoluteZero on Tue Jan 06, 2015 3:39 pm

    sepheronx wrote:
    I wonder why Rial didnt end up this way and instead went the route of being lower valued than NK currency?  Ruble was over valued at 34rub/usd. Guess once it free floated, this is its true value.

    Yeah something doesn't seem right, Im pretty sure Saudi has a higher percentage of its economy that is reliant on oil sale, how come their currency isn't as badly affected like that of the rouble?

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  Kimppis on Tue Jan 06, 2015 3:54 pm

    sepheronx wrote:I wonder why Rial didnt end up this way and instead went the route of being lower valued than NK currency?  Ruble was over valued at 34rub/usd. Guess once it free floated, this is its true value.

    Meaning that the Russian economy would be (nominally) smaller than Canada or Italy and maybe even Spain and SK at this point. That doesn't seem right... That would basically mean that Russians per capita are somehow poorer than Brazilians or Turks at this point. Or is it correct to say that Russia would be like Ukraine or Bulgaria without oil? That the "true" value of the Russian economy is $7000-8000 per person. I'm not a currency expert, that's for sure, but none of that feels right. It can't be the "true" (long-term?) value if you think about what it means for the GDP, both total and per capita, albeit nominal.

    Btw, I think the Chinese nominal per capita GDP is bigger than Russia's with the current rates (it's going to hit 8000+ in 2015, if I'm not mistaken), which is also pretty interesting. They've come a looong way. At this rate they are going to over take Brazil and many other "middle income" countries quite soon (5 to 10 years).

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  sepheronx on Tue Jan 06, 2015 3:55 pm

    AbsoluteZero wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:
    I wonder why Rial didnt end up this way and instead went the route of being lower valued than NK currency?  Ruble was over valued at 34rub/usd. Guess once it free floated, this is its true value.

    Yeah something doesn't seem right, Im pretty sure Saudi has a higher percentage of its economy that is reliant on oil sale, how come their currency isn't as badly affected like that of the rouble?

    I think it is because they have their currency tied to something and not free floating. What free floating has done was ease the fall of the oil value, preventing budget issues. Since Russias budget is in Rubles, well it makes sense. But it will destroy the import business/market in Russia that makes billions. It may (or may not, depending on how lazy and incompetent Russians are) mean much more money for domestic makers. But of course, nominal gdp will be effected because its all priced in USD and a drop in currency value automatically drops gdp nominal. A pointless measurement it seems sinse it isnt effecting Russias military production (almost no imports for that anymore).

    If Russia really wanted to, they can fix the ruble to assets and stop currency exchange. That will increase value of Ruble to forex but cause other issues like a drop in budget revenue, and hurt domestic manufacturers as imports will rule again and low oil prices will mean less for all.

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