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    Russian Military involvement and aid to Syria

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    GarryB
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    Re: Russian Military involvement and aid to Syria

    Post  GarryB on Thu Nov 24, 2011 1:48 pm

    Well I don't think the situation in Syria is very clear at all.

    We have seen plenty of footage from the US showing protesters in the streets... does that mean NATO should bomb the US?

    Just because a group calls for the overthrow of the Syrian government does not mean it should happen or even will happen.

    Ask the people of Egypt how great it is to get rid of a dictator, because at the end of the day when dictators are removed it is not usually because of people power... there needs to be external forces that support a change and they change they will allow is never in the interests of those shedding blood to remove that dictator... it is usually in the hands of those who allowed the change to take place... and the result can be almost worse than than the original problem.

    Gadaffi was no hero, but the people of Libya were hardly enslaved by an evil tyrant either.

    Libya has plenty of natural resources to pay for the damage to be repaired, but that money will disappear into pockets and the Libyan people will not see the benefits... they will just get lip service and half-assed botched building contracts with buildings made out of concrete that has no cement in the mixture because the money for cement was skimmed off the top by the site manager.

    I doubt Russia or Iran will allow the west to go in and do what they did in Libya.

    If the US tries anything then expect to see Manpads crossing the border into Afghanistan in large numbers... right now the helicopter is the safest way to travel there to avoid IEDs. Add modern MANPADS and the cost and complication of that conflict will skyrocket to the point where it becomes simply too expensive and most of the countries will leave.

    The shift in attention away from Syria and back to Afghanistan would suit Iran... and they have plenty of MANPADS that are not amazing, but certainly good enough to be a problem for US forces.

    runaway
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    Re: Russian Military involvement and aid to Syria

    Post  runaway on Thu Nov 24, 2011 7:53 pm

    "Yet, unlike Libya, Russia has pledged their support to the Assad government and they are actually backing it up with military firepower.

    This will undoubtedly make for a much muddier situation for the U.S.-led NATO forces with the help of Arab League nations to wade into.

    Lavrov has recently pointed out that the so-called Free Syrian Army assault on an Airforce Intelligence compound on the peripheries of Damascus was “already completely similar to civil war,” and he couldn’t be more correct.

    You can no longer pretend to be a peaceful pro-democracy movement when you’re using rocket-propelled grenades and machine guns to assault a military base"

    True, many revolutions have led to far worse societys, Iran for example.
    Irak, as another. And Libya.. they might end up with islamists with shaaria laws, as Tunisia and Egypt also might.
    A far worse faith then what they had if you ask me.

    But back to the Naval situation, will there be a skirmish with live weapons between russian ships and Nato ships?
    Who will "win"? What will the results be if say, 2 US ships are sunk with the loss of hundreds of lives by russian missiles?

    A more important question, has the russian ships the technology to defeat US ships and missiles, or are they easy prey for the harpoons?

    I think we are heading for "a cuban missile crisis". A chicken race, and we`ll see who backs down first.

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    Re: Russian Military involvement and aid to Syria

    Post  GarryB on Thu Nov 24, 2011 11:52 pm

    "Yet, unlike Libya, Russia has pledged their support to the Assad government and they are actually backing it up with military firepower.

    Libya had made a lot of noises and ordered quite a bit of Russian gear but was clearly more in bed with the west than with Russia.
    The sudden release of the guy in prison for the bombing at lockerbie and the sudden thaw in relations is very suspect to me... there were a lot of skeletons and secret agreements.. gaddafi had to die to protect those secrets and apart from complaints that NATO was abusing a UNSC resolution the Russians really didn't care much about Libya... they were not a staunch friend and ally like India or Vietnam, they were more like Iran... a potential source of income that clearly had upset the west in some way... whether it was by not handing over natural resources at bargain basement prices, or having a socialist type government that provided free education and healthcare to its people paid for by the mineral wealth of the country... imagine the very thought of a country expecting to gain a benefit from its mineral wealth... instead of letting big western companies go in there and steal it all for the cost of a few bribes to the right people.

    Russia saw what happened in Libya and likely were surprised that the west so brazenly picked a side in a civil war and implemented a policy of regime change under the guise of humanitarian assistance...

    Neither Iran, nor Russia can afford that to happen to Syria.

    BTW the Arab league is a joke... it suspends Syria for its brutality against its own citizens, yet there are 15,000 in detention in Egypt and 40 were recently killed in legitimate protests and they say nothing.

    You can no longer pretend to be a peaceful pro-democracy movement when you’re using rocket-propelled grenades and machine guns to assault a military base"

    I said the same about the Libyan "unarmed civilians" that needed a no fly zone for protection. Driving around in utes with rocket packs normally carried by helicopter gunships and firing them at random in the general direction of the enemy, yet it was the Libyan government forces fighting off these armed rebels that were targeted by a force whose role was supposed to be protecting unarmed civilians.

    And Libya.. they might end up with islamists with shaaria laws, as Tunisia and Egypt also might.
    A far worse faith then what they had if you ask me.

    But this is the leadership many seem to be demanding.

    I say leave them to it. Being free is a state of mind... not a state of government.

    If you can't feed yourself or your family then what is the western definition of freedom... ie the ability to vote every 3 to 7 years? For the poor there is no freedom... freedom is having lots of money, so only 1% of the worlds population are actually free. In communist countries it is not money, but power but no one will tell you the real dirty secret... democracy, dictatorship, communism... they are all pyramid schemes where the people at the top enjoy the wealth and power and the people at the bottom just work and suffer. It does not just apply to governments... it applies to businesses too.

    Watch a very unusual American movie called "The Other Guys" with Will Farrel and Mark Wahlberg... particularly the closing credits.
    The figures and information given are very interesting reading.

    Who will "win"? What will the results be if say, 2 US ships are sunk with the loss of hundreds of lives by russian missiles?

    US and Russian ships will not fire on each other over Syria.

    A more important question, has the russian ships the technology to defeat US ships and missiles, or are they easy prey for the harpoons?

    Are US sailors issued with 10 million SPF+ sunscreen?
    Unless they launch an enormous salvo of Harpoons most Russian naval vessels are well defended against subsonic low flying missiles.

    How are these US vessels going to justify an attack?
    Russian vessels are blocking arms smugglers and protecting Syrian waters.

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    Re: Russian Military involvement and aid to Syria

    Post  runaway on Fri Nov 25, 2011 12:47 pm

    GarryB wrote:Libya had made a lot of noises and ordered quite a bit of Russian gear but was clearly more in bed with the west than with Russia.
    The sudden release of the guy in prison for the bombing at lockerbie and the sudden thaw in relations is very suspect to me... there were a lot of skeletons and secret agreements.. gaddafi had to die to protect those secrets and apart from complaints that NATO was abusing a UNSC resolution the Russians really didn't care much about Libya... they were not a staunch friend and ally like India or Vietnam, they were more like Iran... a potential source of income that clearly had upset the west in some way... whether it was by not handing over natural resources at bargain basement prices, or having a socialist type government that provided free education and healthcare to its people paid for by the mineral wealth of the country... imagine the very thought of a country expecting to gain a benefit from its mineral wealth... instead of letting big western companies go in there and steal it all for the cost of a few bribes to the right people.

    Russia saw what happened in Libya and likely were surprised that the west so brazenly picked a side in a civil war and implemented a policy of regime change under the guise of humanitarian assistance...

    Neither Iran, nor Russia can afford that to happen to Syria.

    BTW the Arab league is a joke... it suspends Syria for its brutality against its own citizens, yet there are 15,000 in detention in Egypt and 40 were recently killed in legitimate protests and they say nothing.

    And Libya.. they might end up with islamists with shaaria laws, as Tunisia and Egypt also might.
    A far worse faith then what they had if you ask me.

    But this is the leadership many seem to be demanding.

    I say leave them to it. Being free is a state of mind... not a state of government.

    Agree, its not up to the UN or the US to decide over all civilasations, and how they are governed. In that case, start your bombing runs over North Korea, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, and why not... CHINA, for example.

    I for one dont call the US with two parties a democratsy. So, maybe the we should bomb the US into a european/Italien style, with 10-20 parties.


    Who will "win"? What will the results be if say, 2 US ships are sunk with the loss of hundreds of lives by russian missiles?

    US and Russian ships will not fire on each other over Syria.
    Stranger things have happend in the distant seas. I wouldnt count on it.

    A more important question, has the russian ships the technology to defeat US ships and missiles, or are they easy prey for the harpoons?

    Are US sailors issued with 10 million SPF+ sunscreen?
    Unless they launch an enormous salvo of Harpoons most Russian naval vessels are well defended against subsonic low flying missiles.
    Unless their ECM is wiped out, which leaves them blind.

    How are these US vessels going to justify an attack?
    Russian vessels are blocking arms smugglers and protecting Syrian waters.

    How about; They fired first, justification. It has worked before as you have mentioned, Vietnam.

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    Re: Russian Military involvement and aid to Syria

    Post  GarryB on Sat Nov 26, 2011 12:27 am

    Agree, its not up to the UN or the US to decide over all civilasations, and how they are governed. In that case, start your bombing runs over North Korea, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, and why not... CHINA, for example.

    China, Iran, Ethiopia... all have civilisations going back thousands of years. Who is the US to say to them... ,well anything at all?

    When the US starts listening to advice on how to act then perhaps others might listen to their advice... which is not to say they will act on their advice... just listen.

    I for one dont call the US with two parties a democratsy. So, maybe the we should bomb the US into a european/Italien style, with 10-20 parties.

    I quite agree, the real problem is all of the west is that politics has polarised into left and right when in reality there is no such thing. I believe in strategic resources like energy being managed by government. I also agree with the death penalty and the rights of a woman to have an abortion of she chooses, though I think the father should have a say too.
    I believe gun control is about hitting your target... now am I left or right? it turns out I am both and neither...

    What a stupid system!

    You can either have Vanilla or Chocolate icecream... I don't want icecream.

    Stranger things have happend in the distant seas. I wouldnt count on it.

    There are plenty of cases... one case in the Black Sea where a large US vessel entered Soviet waters because of a maritime law about moving from one place to another place at sea. A fairly small Soviet ship was given the task to get rid of them.

    It didn't open fire... it rammed them.

    There is a video on the net somewhere.

    There was another case of a US submarine entering a Soviet Harbour and it was detected and chased for several hours. Eventually the sub (which was conventional diesel electric) had to surface to snorkel and the captain had expected to be immediately arrested and sent to siberia for 20 years along with his crew. ...in that case the Soviet ship commander simply said "thanks for the practise, we will escort you to international waters".

    Both sides know the consequences of direct confrontation, and any conflict that might result. Both are professional forces that respect each other... you get a few dickheads like the commander of the USS Vincennes that ended up shooting down a civilian Iranian Airbus. Every navy will have such people. I rather doubt such people will be sent to Syrian waters now.


    Unless their ECM is wiped out, which leaves them blind.

    ECM can't stop Kashtan... it uses a mix of cm, and mm wave radar and thermal imaging... the latter would be sufficient on its own to track and engage incoming subsonic anti ship missiles.

    Attacking a Russian ship in Syrian waters would be an act of war... no NATO country is that dumb or irresponsible.

    How about; They fired first, justification. It has worked before as you have mentioned, Vietnam.

    The difference is that they thought they could win in Vietnam fighting the North Vietnamese. There is no way they will think they can attack Russian vessels with impunity.

    I am sure the west would love to see a pro western regime in Syria, but not at the risk of a direct confrontation with Russia AND Iran.

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    Re: Russian Military involvement and aid to Syria

    Post  runaway on Sun Nov 27, 2011 11:44 pm

    "The Russian warships that arrived in Syrian territorial waters in recent days were reportedly carrying technical advisors who will assist the Syrian government in setting up an array of the super-advanced S-300 missiles.

    This is according to Syrian and Russian sources cited by the London-based Arabic Al Quds-Al Arabi which said that Moscow is seeing a Western attack on Syria as a “red line” which it will not tolerate in any way.

    This comes as the United States is moving the USS George H. W. Bush aircraft carrier off the coast of Syria and the Arab League has reportedly drawn up a plan for a no-fly zone over Syria which would utilize American logistical support.

    The report said that Russia is maintaining their support for the Assad government in Syria, despite constantly growing Western pressure and amongst the puppet leaders that make up the Arab League.

    In addition to the S-300 missiles, the report states that Russia is also installing advanced radar systems in all of the critical Syrian industrial and military installations."

    "Twenty-four hours before the Arab League Sunday, Nov. 27, clamped down sanctions on the Assad regime, the first ever against a member state, the armies of Syria's seven neighbors were already scrambling into position on standby on its borders for acts of retaliation. Military suspense mounted after the Arab League vote to cut off transactions with Syria's central bank, withdraw Arab funding from projects and other painful sanctions over Bashar Assad's refusal to halt his crackdown on protest.

    debkafile's military sources report Israeli armored brigades pushed forward up to the Lebanese and Syrian borders; Ankara placed three armored brigades, its air force and navy in astate of preparedness, likewise Hizballah and the Lebanese and Jordanian armed forces, while the US and Russia are in the midst of a naval buildup opposite Syrian shores.

    Military sources in the Gulf report that 150 Iranian Revolutionary Guards specialists had landed at a military airport south of Damascus on their way to Lebanon to join Hizballah which began bringing its rockets out of their hideouts.

    Ahead of the Arab League vote, Qatar and Turkey were reported to be airlifting "volunteers" from Libya to fight alongside the rebel Free Syrian Army, some also transporting weapons, whereas Russia has begun another airlift to deliver top-notch missiles for Assad's forces.
    Our sources report the two key items are advanced Pantsir-1 (SA-22 Greyhound) anti-air missiles for breaking a no-fly zone against most types of aircraft should one be imposed and supersonic Yakhont (SS-26) missiles for targeting vessels blockading Syria's shores at a distance of 300 kilometers."


    Nothing new of the ships, or the supposodly 47 russian fighterjets. Although the Arab leageu adopted new tough sanctions, the heat is increasing, the stakes are rising.
    The chicken race continues, and what will russia do? In the long run Bassad cannot last.
    And how long will the ships stay, for there is hardly any ships to replace them with, not from BSF in any case.
    Will Kutznetsov head there? Certainly, but where is Peter the great?
    Russia would need some subs there too, or are there already?

    "There is a big reason they are putting their latest high-tech missile batteries over there now... and it is not for show."


    This IS getting serious.

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    Re: Russian Military involvement and aid to Syria

    Post  GarryB on Mon Nov 28, 2011 2:02 am

    It is pretty clear that the "humanitarian ruse" to effect regime change in Libya by the west will not be repeated in Syria.

    The Syrian opposition have already said they don't want a no fly zone so I really don't see that happening at all.

    Sanctions will only hurt the Syrian people and the countries imposing the sanctions. Any oil that Europe suddenly refuses to buy will be bought by China, so the Europeans are only hurting themselves with sanctions.

    How long can the Russian ships stay?

    Tartus is not a fully equipped port, but other Syrian ports will be able to fully support operations of the two vessels indefinitely. I am pretty sure the Russian vessels could stay as long as they are needed.

    Submarines sound useful, but in practical terms they are actually not much use in this situation.

    In many ways a Submarine is a sniper... they hide and can kill without warning, but in the case of a blockade, it is better to send surface ships through a blockade than to transport things around it via subs or aircraft.

    A sniper is very useful in war, but in this case the consequences of war make it simply not an option for either side.

    The water is a bit too shallow round there anyway...

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    Re: Russian Military involvement and aid to Syria

    Post  GarryB on Tue Nov 29, 2011 6:30 am

    Sea alert: Russian warships head for Syria

    Moscow is deploying warships at its base in the Syrian port of Tartus. The long-planned mission comes, providentially, at the very moment when it could help prevent a potential conflict in the strategically important Middle Eastern country.

    ­The Russian battle group will consist of three vessels led by the heavy aircraft-carrying missile cruiser, Admiral Kuznetsov.

    Russian military officials insist that the move has no connection with the ongoing crisis in the region and was planned a year ago, the Izvestia newspaper reports. Apart from Syria, the aircraft carrier and its escort ships are set to visit the Lebanese capital, Beirut, Genoa in Italy and Cyprus, says the former Chief of Naval Staff, Admiral Viktor Kravchenko.

    Nevertheless, he added that the presence of a military force other than NATO’s is very useful for this region, because “it will prevent the outbreak of an armed conflict,” Izvestia quoted Kravchenko as saying.

    The Soviet Union, the Admiral recalled, created a special naval squadron to deter Western military forces in the Mediterranean Sea. To repair and supply its ships, Moscow needed its own maintenance base in the region, and that was how the base in Tartus came into being.

    At present, the base is mostly used to support vessels of Russia’s Black Sea fleet. Some 600 military and civilian personnel of the Defense Ministry serve there.

    News of Russia’s naval deployment in Tartus came shortly after the US nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS George HW Bush anchored off Syria, along with additional naval vessels. The US battle group is to remain in the Mediterranean, allegedly to conduct maritime security operations and support missions as part of Operations Enduring Freedom and New Dawn. The US 6th Fleet is also patrolling the area, Interfax reports.

    “Of course, the Russian naval forces in the Mediterranean will be incommensurate with those of the US 6th Fleet, which includes one or two aircraft carriers and several escort ships,” Admiral Kravchenko explained. “But today, no one talks about possible military clashes, since an attack on any Russian ship would be regarded as a declaration of war with all the consequences.”

    The mission is set to start in early December, when the Admiral Kuznetsov begins its journey in the Barents Sea, accompanied by another vessel of Russia’s Northern Fleet, the heavy ASW ship Admiral Chabanenko. The group will then skirt the European continent from the west and enter the Mediterranean through the Strait of Gibraltar.

    Later, they will be joined by frigate Ladny of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. It will travel through the Bosphorus, with a stop-over in Malta’s Valletta.

    Admiral Kuznetsov will be carrying eight Sukhoi Su-33 all-weather fighters, two Kamov Ka-27 anti-submarine helicopters and several brand new Mig-29K fighters. The Mig fighters were built for India’s air force and are supposed to be “tested” during their first assignment.

    Military officials have stressed that all flights will be performed in open waters, away from the Syrian coast.

    Unlike American aircraft carriers, designed largely as floating runways, Admiral Kuznetsov is a heavily-armed aircraft-carrying cruiser. Its primary armaments, among others, are 12 long-range surface-to-surface anti-ship Granit cruise missiles, a six-gun short-range surface-to-air missile system Kinzhal, eight close-in air defense Kashtan gun-missile systems and two UDAV-1 anti-submarine systems.

    The Admiral Kuznetsov has already been twice to the port of Tartus during its assignments in the Mediterranean and Atlantic Ocean in 1995 and 2007.

    Source: http://rt.com/news/russian-aircraft-carrier-syria-363/


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    Re: Russian Military involvement and aid to Syria

    Post  runaway on Tue Nov 29, 2011 6:41 pm

    [quote="GarryB"]
    Sea alert: Russian warships head for Syria

    Moscow is deploying warships at its base in the Syrian port of Tartus. The long-planned mission comes, providentially, at the very moment when it could help prevent a potential conflict in the strategically important Middle Eastern country.

    ­The Russian battle group will consist of three vessels led by the heavy aircraft-carrying missile cruiser, Admiral Kuznetsov.

    Russian military officials insist that the move has no connection with the ongoing crisis in the region and was planned a year ago, the Izvestia newspaper reports. Apart from Syria, the aircraft carrier and its escort ships are set to visit the Lebanese capital, Beirut, Genoa in Italy and Cyprus, says the former Chief of Naval Staff, Admiral Viktor Kravchenko.

    Nevertheless, he added that the presence of a military force other than NATO’s is very useful for this region, because “it will prevent the outbreak of an armed conflict,” Izvestia quoted Kravchenko as saying.

    Yes, undoubtly it will cause the US to back down, if they dont strike before K arrives. But with Cruiser Moskva and other ships there, that isnt possible, unless they take a big risk and try to scare to russian ships to stay inactive. "Light up, and you will swim ashore" tactic they used against russian ship in Libya in 1980`s.



    At present, the base is mostly used to support vessels of Russia’s Black Sea fleet. Some 600 military and civilian personnel of the Defense Ministry serve there.

    Sound like a legimitate reason for russian ships to be there, protect their citizens.


    News of Russia’s naval deployment in Tartus came shortly after the US nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS George HW Bush anchored off Syria, along with additional naval vessels. The US battle group is to remain in the Mediterranean, allegedly to conduct maritime security operations and support missions as part of Operations Enduring Freedom and New Dawn. The US 6th Fleet is also patrolling the area, Interfax reports.

    “Of course, the Russian naval forces in the Mediterranean will be incommensurate with those of the US 6th Fleet, which includes one or two aircraft carriers and several escort ships,” Admiral Kravchenko explained. “But today, no one talks about possible military clashes, since an attack on any Russian ship would be regarded as a declaration of war with all the consequences.”

    Of course they dont count to win a battle in NATO sea. Not a gun battle, but maybe a physkological one. We`ll see.



    The mission is set to start in early December, when the Admiral Kuznetsov begins its journey in the Barents Sea, accompanied by another vessel of Russia’s Northern Fleet, the heavy ASW ship Admiral Chabanenko. The group will then skirt the European continent from the west and enter the Mediterranean through the Strait of Gibraltar.

    Later, they will be joined by frigate Ladny of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. It will travel through the Bosphorus, with a stop-over in Malta’s Valletta.

    Admiral Kuznetsov will be carrying eight Sukhoi Su-33 all-weather fighters, two Kamov Ka-27 anti-submarine helicopters and several brand new Mig-29K fighters. The Mig fighters were built for India’s air force and are supposed to be “tested” during their first assignment.

    Military officials have stressed that all flights will be performed in open waters, away from the Syrian coast.

    Unlike American aircraft carriers, designed largely as floating runways, Admiral Kuznetsov is a heavily-armed aircraft-carrying cruiser. Its primary armaments, among others, are 12 long-range surface-to-surface anti-ship Granit cruise missiles, a six-gun short-range surface-to-air missile system Kinzhal, eight close-in air defense Kashtan gun-missile systems and two UDAV-1 anti-submarine systems.

    I still would have wanted Peter the great sailing with the K and not a destroyer from the 80`s with very limited AA capability. Though ASW can be useful, the K has the choppers for that.
    But I`m surprised the new MIG`s will be onboard. Togheter with the SU-33`s the quality will outmatch the US, but not in numbers though.
    Talk about these pilots will have to have ice in their weins, as the US pilots will do anything they can to annoy and trigger a reaction.

    Hopefully the Moskva will wait in place and join task force with K.




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    Re: Russian Military involvement and aid to Syria

    Post  GarryB on Wed Nov 30, 2011 12:00 am

    "Light up, and you will swim ashore" tactic they used against russian ship in Libya in 1980`s.

    There was and is nothing in Libya worth defending for the Russians.

    In Syria there is Tartus, which is clearly important to them for their future operations in the Med.

    Sound like a legimitate reason for russian ships to be there, protect their citizens.

    The US invaded Grenada for 200 odd US students... so yes.

    Of course they dont count to win a battle in NATO sea. Not a gun battle, but maybe a physkological one. We`ll see.

    They don't have to be able to win, they just have to be there.

    The material they are likely taking with them should enable some areas of Syria to be protected from air attack... a cruise missile attack will not be sufficient.

    The fact that they are taking Indian Mig-29Ks for "testing" is very interesting. Perhaps... considering Migs experience in integrating the R-37 and R-37M with the Mig-31BM might enable them to integrate the RVV-BD as well as the RVV-MD and RVV-SD with the Mig-29K.

    The Su-33s are pretty much Su-27s with tailhooks and improved structural strength and the Kh-31 series of ARM and AShM added to their arsenal, so the Migs ability to carry newer missiles make it much more potent.

    I am sure this example will show the Russian Navy that they need new aircraft in a very practical way as without the Mig-29K the Su-33 will be armed with R-27. It is not a useless missile but it is not ideal either... it would be important to use its range and speed against enemy threats with AMRAAM.

    The Su-33 has a lot of onboard fuel and good speed potential so it can fly around a lot of sky, which makes any BVR a low PK, and in close combat its R-73 is a proven killer at extended ranges.

    I still would have wanted Peter the great sailing with the K and not a destroyer from the 80`s with very limited AA capability. Though ASW can be useful, the K has the choppers for that.

    Tartus is not that big... it will be stretched to support the K with its fuel and the fuel for all those aircraft.

    Keeping the Peter the Great in reserve means you have the option of escalating without firing a shot... you should be planning for a long term operation... Syria will not be solved over night.

    Talk about these pilots will have to have ice in their weins, as the US pilots will do anything they can to annoy and trigger a reaction.

    I rather doubt the US pilots will want to start anything with a country that has real WMDs and can hit their backyard without leaving their backyard.

    They have whined on about this country or that country having WMDs and being a threat to world peace, when in reality only a very few countries are in that club because it is not enough to have WMDs, you have to be able to deliver them to target... which Iran and Iraq have not had.


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    Re: Russian Military involvement and aid to Syria

    Post  runaway on Wed Nov 30, 2011 10:35 pm

    "
    HomeNewsWorld Advanced Russia sending its warships to Syria
    Rare port call to Syria before the end of the year
    By AFPPublished Tuesday, November 29, 2011

    Demonstrators protest against Syria's President Bashar al-Assad in Khalidieh, near Homs. (REUTERS)

    Russia has loaded its only aircraft carrier with supersonic jets and anti-ship helicopters in preparation for a rare port call to Syria before the end of the year, military officials said on Tuesday.

    The Admiral Kuznetsov will lead Russia's first major flotilla to Syria since 2008 after completing final preparations at its Norther Fleet base near the city of Murmansk, the official said.

    The mission will include Russia's newest anti-submarine destroyer and a fleet of smaller ships that will ferry supplies between the heavy aircraft carrier and the shore once it enters Syria's Tartus port harbour.

    The Izvestia daily had on Monday reported that the naval mission to Russia's close Arab world ally would take place in the spring of 2012.

    But Russian news reports moved that date ahead by several months on Tuesday despite officials' continued refusal to link the operation to the escalating tensions around strongman Bashar al-Assad's crackdown on street protests.

    "Our ships' visit to Syria was planned in advance and has no relation to the current events in Syria," the ITAR-TASS news agency quoted an unnamed Russian defence official as saying.

    "This is a matter of improving the training of our naval crew," the official said.

    Syria's ambassador to Russia echoed the statement.

    "You cannot link the Russian ships' plans to enter Tartus to the current situation in Syria," ambassador Suleiman Abu Diyab told the Interfax news agency.

    "Syria is Russia's friend and your ships can enter our port for repairs or any other reason," the Damascus envoy said."

    Hard to tell whats really the plan is. There are many laying smoke, but i wouldnt be surprised if the Kutznetsov shove up outside Tartus by new year, saying it needs replenishment. As they surely would need, having raced from Murmansk at high speed...

    But no news as for the Moskva or other ships, so i guess they are still in Tartus harbour, were media can`t reach them.
    As long as US carrier Bush is stationed in the vincinity, the Moskva task force is likelly to also dwell there.



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    Re: Russian Military involvement and aid to Syria

    Post  GarryB on Thu Dec 01, 2011 12:56 am

    First of all the last I read the USS Bush was in France, and no where near Syrian waters... the Med is actually quite a large area.

    Second the plans for the K were indeed set a year ago and was originally planned to be a leisurely jaunt from Murmansk down to various friendly ports that was to end in Syria by about March.

    The events in Syria have not created this voyage, but clearly events in Syria have changed the timetable so the crew of the K from the Northern Fleet will still get a good tan, they will just likely spend rather more time near Syria than originally intended.

    AFAIK the Russians have several Mig-29Ks on board which they will likely take out for a spin and perform a bit of testing on... they might go out to international waters and set up a few obsolete vessels or perhaps barges and test their Urans and Kh-31s and perhaps even Klubs.

    Will probably be time to deliver a few Mig-29SMT aircraft with RVV-MD and RVV-SD AAMs, and of course a few Pantsir-S1 batteries while they are there.

    From memory the K stopped off at Tartus in 1997 and 2005, so there will be no obvious problems with regard to its size... it has been supported there before.

    Most of the normal use of Russian aircraft carriers...unlike the US carriers will be a show of force... sabre rattling... showing they can back up their words with action if they need to.

    I would be surprised if the Su-33s don't get an upgrade while the K is being upgraded in 2012-2017 to allow them to carry ARH missiles like RVV-SD as the modification is not that expensive... the F-15 didn't need a new radar to move from Sparrows to AMRAAMs... in fact F-16s didn't need new radars to go from only Sidewinders to AMRAAMs... it is not that big a deal, but in the past there was little reason to make the change as there were few R-77s in service anyway.

    Now with the Russian AF buying lots of new guided weapons, it makes sense for the Russian Navy to do the same, though the Su-33 uses a different R-27ER and ET and R and T model missile from the land based Flankers, as the naval missiles have been optimised for use over water. The PVO, or air defence forces within the air force also used different model missiles that used different codes and different frequencies, and their Flankers were also different from those used by the Air Force too, so to add to the R-27 family there were not just passive radar homers (R-27P and R-27EP), semi active radar homers (R-27R and R-27ER), and of course IR guided missiles (R-27T and R-27ET) and of course the standard and long range models (R-27 and R-27E), plus of course the experimental ARH models (R-27AE and presumably R-27A), there were also naval models optimised for use over water (presumably passive, SARH, and IR but also possibly ARH in short and long range versions) Air Force (ie Frontal Aviation) models (Passive radar homing, SARH, and IR in short and long range versions), PVO models (Passive radar homing, SARH, and IR in short and long range versions) and of course the versions of the R-27 for older model fighters like the Mig-21-98 and the Mig-23-98 (Passive radar homing, SARH, and IR in short and long range versions).

    ...quite a family.

    Of course with the introduction of RVV-SD there is no need for an ARH version of the R-27, but the SARH and IR and passive radar homing R-27 might still be useful... especially in the long range model where high flight speed could result in your missile hitting them before their missile gets to you so you can concentrate fully on their missile rather than worry about their missile and what they are doing while you are dealing with their missile.

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    Re: Russian Military involvement and aid to Syria

    Post  Kysusha on Sat Dec 17, 2011 9:05 am

    Two days ago, the Poms suddenly discovered a Russian battle fleet anchored 30km off the Scottish coast! They hurriedly dispatched the HMS York to “Escort” the fleet.

    My understanding was the Admril K and fleet left port quite some time back – certainly plenty of time had passed for them to have reached the Mediterranean by now. So, is it really a case of “bad weather” stopping an Aircraft carrier of 60,000 tonnes and her fleet, when fishing fleets were at sea, or are we seeing something akin to old fashioned gunboat diplomacy here?

    Firstly, it certainly took the Poms by surprise to see the fleet there and they have slipped in quite un-noticed. Secondly, is this a case of don’t meddle in Syria the way you did in Libya??

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    Re: Russian Military involvement and aid to Syria

    Post  runaway on Sat Dec 17, 2011 8:31 pm

    Kysusha wrote:So, is it really a case of “bad weather” stopping an Aircraft carrier of 60,000 tonnes and her fleet, when fishing fleets were at sea, or are we seeing something akin to old fashioned gunboat diplomacy here?

    Firstly, it certainly took the Poms by surprise to see the fleet there and they have slipped in quite un-noticed. Secondly, is this a case of don’t meddle in Syria the way you did in Libya??

    Interesting thought. I was puzzled when i heard they had sought shelter, if they had reached Scotland, they would be in shelter from the north atlantic. I know that the north sea can be dreadful in bad weather, but not against the big K!
    But perhaps the smaller escort ships would be in danger.
    I have heard all of north Britain had hurricane warnings and took cover, so it seems it is a case of really bad weather.

    Anyway its certainly a wake up call, and a remainder to the West that it isnt all mighty on the seas.
    Also, it gives a hint of what a powerful navy can achive, in the "diplomatic" world.


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    Re: Russian Military involvement and aid to Syria

    Post  Kysusha on Sat Dec 17, 2011 10:48 pm

    The video of them “in shelter” showed an almost perfectly calm sea! If at sea and underway, why stop?? Especially if you have very calm water after a rough spell. Surely the weather didn’t do such damage that they had to carry out repairs and maintenance??!

    I strongly suspect this is Russia emerging as a sea power and starting to flex muscle against Merika. Britain is a shadow of the sea power it once was and so cash-strapped that most of their kit is in mothballs, missiles included.

    My opinion – this was a strong political/diplomatic message to Britain.

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    Re: Russian Military involvement and aid to Syria

    Post  GarryB on Sun Dec 18, 2011 1:07 am

    The location they stopped is a well known location in that area and is often used to take shelter from storms.

    I have read of a complaint made about the Russians dumping rubbish, like food waste etc, but that is the usual Russophobic Brits... it is perfectly legal to do such things outside the 12 mile limit, and is standard practice at sea.

    BTW this trip was planned over a year ago, though events in Syria have changed the tempo of the voyage.

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    Re: Russian Military involvement and aid to Syria

    Post  KRATOS1133 on Wed Dec 21, 2011 11:24 am








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    Re: Russian Military involvement and aid to Syria

    Post  GarryB on Wed Dec 21, 2011 1:01 pm

    Interesting footage...

    Note the Yakhont has a solid rocket booster, so for the first few seconds of flight the burning rocket motor might generate some ionised particles that will be detectible on radar... many types of solid fuel rocket have materials like Aluminium to increase the heat the material burns at, which can increase thrust.

    Once on its way, however the Yakhont uses a ramjet engine so there would not be any radar return signal generated by that that would show up on radar.

    The first warning would be from IR sensors and they will be line of sight sensors, so as the missile comes over the horizon it will be detectible... if the appropriate sensors are on and directed in the right direction.

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    Re: Russian Military involvement and aid to Syria

    Post  Kysusha on Wed Dec 21, 2011 8:41 pm

    Why do you refer to it as “Russians smuggling weapons” when Merika sells weapons all over the world and no one accuses them of smuggling??

    Hell, the CIA even arms two sides of a conflict.

    So, OK for Merika to sell arms, but Russia has to smuggle them???! ! !

    Need to look at our values here.

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    Re: Russian Military involvement and aid to Syria

    Post  Kysusha on Thu Dec 22, 2011 12:23 am

    Do Joo terrorists worry about international law??? if so, since when??

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    Re: Russian Military involvement and aid to Syria

    Post  GarryB on Thu Dec 22, 2011 3:26 am

    May I ask you Kysusha to please be more careful in how you phrase what you say.

    I understand you think there are Juice in the background controlling the west and in particular the US in a way similar to the so called illuminati or Templar Knights.

    I don't agree... I think they would be in a much better situation if they really had that level of power or control.

    I would however ask you to phrase your comments so that it is clear to everyone you are talking about a group of juice, but not all juice.

    There are plenty of juice that oppose the creation and very idea of Israel, and I have an enormous amount of sympathy for these people because they have suffered like all the Juice, but most of the suffering and anger created by the Zionist juice often gets (mis)directed at them.

    Keep in mind that there are juice happily living in Iran that are not persecuted because they are juice... because they don't want to steal anyones country nor build settlements on the land of others.

    I am sure most non-zionist juice would be happy for further investigation and analysis of the holocaust and many other aspects of their history, though not if the goals were clearly to deny or refute it outright without exploring the real facts.

    An open and fair analysis is not allowed by Zionist Juice, because it releases Europe and the West of guilt and undermines their power within western circles.

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    Re: Russian Military involvement and aid to Syria

    Post  runaway on Thu Dec 22, 2011 4:23 pm


    Guys, you`re so out of topic here, i go back to it.


    Kysusha wrote:Why do you refer to it as “Russians smuggling weapons” when Merika sells weapons all over the world and no one accuses them of smuggling??

    Hell, the CIA even arms two sides of a conflict.

    So, OK for Merika to sell arms, but Russia has to smuggle them???! ! !

    Need to look at our values here.

    Well, I was ironic, i know they dont have, or will smuggle weapons, they can sell normal weapon as there is no ban yet.

    However, it could be used by opponents, and they can make a "Bush". Ie lie to the whole world and fabricate something. Then go to action and get more oil or whatever.

    Now i dont think the Israelis will try anything, but dont fool yourselfs, in a hot situation things can happen quickly.


    The USS Bush was an attempt to call Russias bluff. Russias decision to send the Kuznetsov and to deliver the Yakhonts was the Russians putting a winning hand of cards on the table.

    I think you`re right, and i also think there is alot of respect for Yakhont.

    Any speculations on the Subs, are there any Akulas hiding amongst the ships?







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    Re: Russian Military involvement and aid to Syria

    Post  Kysusha on Fri Dec 23, 2011 1:19 am

    OK, I hold my bum up for smacking too – I ran off topic; actually something I am very passionate about, and got carried away in reply. Kiwis have a very strong sense of social justice and a history of supporting the underdog; we tend to go out on a limb for mates and the down-trodden. I unfortunately [or fortunately, depending on your persuasion] follow that trend.

    I read recently that the Russian task force is going to conduct exercises with the Israeli navy when they get to station??? Is this a case of keep your friends close but your enemies closer??

    Two questions:

    Can anyone confirm this?

    If it is true, what do you think might be the motive behind it??

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    Re: Russian Military involvement and aid to Syria

    Post  GarryB on Fri Dec 23, 2011 4:05 am

    This voyage was planned over a year ago, and they probably thought a bit of anti terrorism training practise with the Israelis would be good PR and good training.

    They also train with the USN very occasionally, so I don't think it is a sign that the Russian navy might shift from Tartus to Israel.

    I have not read any mention of joint exercises with the Israeli Navy, but then I have not read a detailed list of their itinerary either... either the original one or the new likely revised one, though I seem to remember that originally they were going to visit several ports on the way and not actually get to Syria till February or later.

    It should be mentioned that during the cold war the Soviets actually set up mobile independent bases that were simply moorings in international waters in the Med.

    A couple of support ships would basically drop anchor in the middle of the med, and any ships that needed resupply could head there and pull up along side and take on water, or fuel, or food, or ammo or combinations of all the above while getting a tan.

    I also vaguely remember at one time they had a mooring off Greece somewhere too.

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    Re: Russian Military involvement and aid to Syria

    Post  runaway on Fri Dec 23, 2011 8:22 pm

    If there is any sub with the taskforce, it isnt Nerpa, as she is in the far east, where she had the accident.
    Also her quality is inferior as she leaked, having being built from cheap chinese steel.


    The Ladny would have joined the fleet of spain now, and they should be through Gibraltar any day.
    I seriously doubt they will be exercising with Israel right now, as the situation is hot.

    I would expect them to visit Cyprus and Egypt, as the latter is free from influence of US.
    Now lets see if Moskva is joining the fleet, or if she heads home, relived.
    But the K is sure to remaine in eastern Med for some time.

    santa Happy Xmas
    Late news, what do you think of this??

    ■Sevmash won’t be repairing CV Admiral Kuznetsov in 2012. The shipyard is prepared to build a future carrier.



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