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    Russian Economy General News: #3

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    Austin
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  Austin on Thu Oct 16, 2014 4:09 pm

    sepheronx wrote:
    Austin wrote:For countries that import Oil no drop in Oil Price would mean Government would save budget money allocated to oil so there could be Budget Surplus or lower Budget Deficit than projected like in case of India.

    We had projected Budget Deficit of 4.1 % of GDP , If Oil price stay low till March 2015 then we can expect a lower budget deficit thanks to low oil price.
    If not lower it, at least they can import more for the same price.

    But have you seen a change at the pumps in India?

    By very small amount Rs 1 or so

    http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/petrol-price-reduced-1-per-litre-ioc-fuel-diesel-rates/1/395772.html


    The Indian Government will rather use this opportunity to reduce its budget deficit rather then pass the full benefit to the customer.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  AlfaT8 on Thu Oct 16, 2014 4:16 pm

    sepheronx wrote:I got a question for all you people: have you seen a drop yet in prices at the pump? It was $1.20/L here but now $1.16/L. Barely a drop compared to oil itself.

    I have a feeling they are mitigating the issue of lower oil costs at the pump.
    I also heard a rumor that Saudi Arabia oil companies have huge stakes in various gas pumps around the world and that prices stay up because of them. I was hoping prices would drop.
    Don't know anything about the Suadi, but i can tell you with absolute certainty that here in the ABC islands there has been no significant drop whatsoever (4.3 cent drop), when oil prices go up the Gov. blames the global oil prices, but now that its gone down i don't hear a peep, to say nothing of the price of electricity.


    Last edited by AlfaT8 on Thu Oct 16, 2014 4:22 pm; edited 1 time in total

    sepheronx
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  sepheronx on Thu Oct 16, 2014 4:17 pm

    1 rupee decline? What is the nornal price? I heard different stories but my bro in law gets military price or something to that effect. But average person pays what?

    Yeah, I thunk pump prices will stay the same to mitigate any loss from oil drop and Indian gov can use opportune time to increase revenue.

    Austin
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  Austin on Thu Oct 16, 2014 4:28 pm

    sepheronx wrote:1 rupee decline? What is the nornal price? I heard different stories but my bro in law gets military price or something to that effect. But average person pays what?

    Yeah, I thunk pump prices will stay the same to mitigate any loss from oil drop and Indian gov can use opportune time to increase revenue.

    If you bro-in law is in Armed forces or have relatives there then they might be getting reduced rates.

    Indian Gov runs high budget deficit projected to be 4.1 % this year so low oil price means they might reduce it further , Modi will claim I did it Very Happy

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  sepheronx on Thu Oct 16, 2014 5:27 pm

    Austin wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:1 rupee decline? What is the nornal price? I heard different stories but my bro in law gets military price or something to that effect. But average person pays what?

    Yeah, I thunk pump prices will stay the same to mitigate any loss from oil drop and Indian gov can use opportune time to increase revenue.

    If you bro-in law is in Armed forces or have relatives there then they might be getting reduced rates.

    Indian Gov runs high budget deficit projected to be 4.1 % this year so low oil price means they might reduce it further , Modi will claim I did it Very Happy

    What do you pay in gas? Or are you a gov employee getting discounts? Lol.

    Hannibal Barca
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  Hannibal Barca on Thu Oct 16, 2014 5:38 pm

    sepheronx wrote:I got a question for all you people: have you seen a drop yet in prices at the pump? It was $1.20/L here but now $1.16/L. Barely a drop compared to oil itself.

    I have a feeling they are mitigating the issue of lower oil costs at the pump.
    I also heard a rumor that Saudi Arabia oil companies have huge stakes in various gas pumps around the world and that prices stay up because of them. I was hoping prices would drop.


    Usually orders from the oilfield take 1-3 weeks to reach pump so your price reflects older broker prices like looking the sky you take a pixture of the past.
    A perfect arbitrage scheme and actually many refineries made mountains of money by exploiting this simple fact Wink

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  Firebird on Thu Oct 16, 2014 6:40 pm

    Austin wrote:via STRATFOR

    [url=https://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.stratfor.com%2Fgeopolitical-diary%2Foil-prices-continue-define-geopolitics&title=Oil Prices Continue to Define][/url]  
    Oil Prices Continue to Define Geopolitics

    http://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical-diary/oil-prices-continue-define-geopolitics

    Editor's Note: Oil prices dropped steeply Oct. 14, with crude oil futures falling 4.6 percent to $81.84 per barrel -- the biggest decrease in more than two years. Brent crude dropped by more than $4 a barrel at one stage in the day, dipping below $85 for the first time since 2010. While these are relatively substantial drops, they are just one part of a continuing trend Stratfor has been tracking over the past few months. Factors behind the slump include weak demand, a surfeit of supply and the fact that many large Middle Eastern producers are reluctant to reduce their output.
    In light of today's developments, we are republishing the following diary from Oct. 2, which details the reasons behind the falling prices and how the drops could affect oil-dependent countries around the world.


    The global oil benchmark, Brent crude, fell Thursday to about $92 per barrel before rebounding to finish the day at around $94 per barrel, the lowest price since mid-2012. The latest sell-off follows one of the sharpest declines in a quarter in recent years, in which the price of oil slid about 16 percent. It may be premature to forecast sustained international oil prices lower than $90 per barrel, but if the price of oil remains close to where it is now, many oil exporting countries will feel the pain after basing their budgets on previous price expectations.

    Simply put, the oil market has gotten overstocked. After spending much of the year producing only around 200,000 barrels per day, Libya has seen its production jump up by about 700,000 bpd since mid-June. The United States has continued its relentless expansion of oil production, with the latest Energy Information Agency figures estimating that U.S. production has increased by about 300,000 bpd since the beginning of August, and Iraq has experienced similar gains. Russia, Angola and Nigeria have also seen marked boosts in production. While most of the recent production increases are one-offs, North America could add another 1 million to 1.5 million barrels of production by the end of next year.

    Despite these noteworthy hikes in oil production, sluggish demand by European and Asian (particularly Chinese) consumers has proved just as important to oil prices. While China's demand will continue to grow, demand in developed countries will remain flat, as it has for a while. These factors only add to the concern that if left unchecked, oil prices per barrel in the $90-$100 range may persist for the foreseeable future.

    Lower global oil prices will create challenges for several OPEC producers and others, particularly Russia. While some have suggested that OPEC will lower its production targets, it may not have the ability or the unity to coordinate a large enough drop in production to counter trends elsewhere and bring prices to a level more desirable to it (above $100 per barrel). If oil prices do return to this level in the near future, it likely will have little to do with OPEC's actions.

    The Standoff Between Russia and the West



    The first and most import consequence of lower oil prices is the effect it will have on the ongoing struggle between Russia and the West. Energy commodities dominate the Russian economy, particularly its exports. Any sustained drop in oil prices would directly impact the country's export revenues, and Russia's GDP would take a significant hit. The Kremlin's 2014 budget was based on oil prices averaging $117 per barrel for most of the year, with the exception of prices of $90 per barrel for the fourth quarter. For 2015, however, the budget has been pegged at $100 per barrel after much debate within the Russian leadership. While Moscow has significant financial reserves and can run a budget deficit if need be, Finance Ministry officials have estimated that lower oil prices could shave off 2 percent of Russia's GDP.
    Although Russia has been able to weather the effects of U.S. and EU sanctions thus far for its action in Ukraine, the restrictions have already led some firms, such as Rosneft, to ask for financial assistance from the country's National Wealth Fund. A reduction in oil prices, and in turn lower revenues for Russia's budget, will constrain the Kremlin's ability to support Russian businesses hurt by sanctions the longer they are in place. With less of a financial cushion to soften to consequences of sanctions in the longer term, the Kremlin will have to moderate its position in the ongoing negotiations over the future of Ukraine to meet the demands of Western partners and achieve a reduction in sanctions.

    Competition in the Middle East



    As the West looks to gain from low oil prices in its struggle with Russia, it is also looking for an opportunity to negotiate with a beleaguered Tehran to come to some sort of a resolution on the Iranian nuclear program. For Europe, Iran and its large natural gas reserves represent one of the most promising long-term sustainable alternatives to Russian natural gas. Tehran is facing sanctioned export volumes, lower profit margins and ongoing expenses because of proxy conflicts in Syria and Iraq, and it can ill afford a sustained downturn in global oil prices. Progress on coming to an agreement with the West may be slow, which will only place more pressure on Tehran to negotiate.

    Saudi Arabia is also set on maintaining its global market share and has an opportunity in the short term to rely on its considerable foreign exchange reserves and low production costs to wait out other global producers. Riyadh's oil output is its most strategic resource, and one that the government is quick to use to its advantage. With summer temperatures beginning to cool and regional consumption starting to taper off, Riyadh can free up larger volumes to export, even at lower prices. The Saudis are also looking to leverage their short-term economic stability over rivals such as Russia, especially as they square off with Iran over the future of the Syrian government.

    Saudi Arabia also has the ability to take a considerable number of barrels of oil offline if it wants to. Recently, however, it has offered discounts on its crude oil to secure market share for November, perhaps signaling to other OPEC members that while Riyadh may be willing to take its supply offline, others will have to do the same. But there is no incentive for other countries to reduce their output, since most Gulf producers will still manage to make a profit in the $90-$100 per barrel range; lowering production levels, therefore, would only reduce revenues.

    The Americas and Beyond



    Outside the Middle East, a decline in oil prices will also affect Venezuela. Officially, Caracas sets its budget at the low target of $60 per barrel of oil, a precedent begun by former President Hugo Chavez. Excess revenue could then be funneled elsewhere to off-budget expenditures to satisfy political patrons. Venezuela is in a dire financial position, needing oil prices perhaps as high as $110 to meet expenditures both on and off the book. Sustained low oil prices would severely hamper Caracas' ability to finance its imports, perhaps forcing government officials to get serious on selling foreign assets, such as Citgo, and gold from its central bank reserves, or offering even more attractive terms on loans for oil deals with the Chinese, though Beijing has recently balked at this. If oil prices stay low for an extended period, Caracas could also be forced to reconsider its deals with Cuba or programs like Petrocaribe.
    Meanwhile, for developed massive oil importers -- Japan, China, India and the European Union -- low oil prices will give some respite to significant import bills. On the other hand, prices could also increase short-term strain in Europe, where energy has been the main factor pushing monthly inflation lower. While lower energy costs are good for Europe in the long run, they also raise the threat of deflation and inflame tension between the European Central Bank and Germany.

    Even though prices have likely bottomed out, the recent plunge in the price of oil serves as a reminder of how geopolitically significant energy prices can be. Energy supplies form the backbone of modern industrial economies, and energy resources are critical export commodities for those who possess a lot of them. As long as fossil fuels remain the dominant source of energy -- something that is likely to last at least another few decades -- oil supply and oil prices will remain critical.


    Read more: Oil Prices Continue to Define Geopolitics | Stratfor
    Follow us: @stratfor on Twitter | Stratfor on Facebook

    A perculiar aspect of all this is that if oil went below 87 or certainly 80 usd per barrel, fracking becomes more and more unviable, especially in the key 7 or so regions around the USA.

    Additionally, the Rouble is becoming weaker vs the USD. This *could* mean inflation. However, sometimes a depreciation is beneficial to an economy. It can mean that while Russia is getting less USD per barrel, it *might* actually benefit more in overall terms. (Sadly its a complex area, but anyway..!)

    Meanwhile, the RMB is starting to develop as more of an international currency. And America is antagonising the EU with its sanction demanding arrogance vs Russian trade.

    PS Brent crude is very easy to manipulate, and can't be considered a valid barometer of prices on its own. Infact London and elsewhere have managed to corrupt foreign exchange and bond markets, so would have no problem rigging Brent crude, which is a price derived from a tiny number of suppliers.

    With Eurasian Union develpts happening, and the Ukraine leading to ever more jawdropping levels of idiocy, I wonder where things will go...?


    sepheronx
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  sepheronx on Thu Oct 16, 2014 8:00 pm

    Hannibal Barca wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:I got a question for all you people: have you seen a drop yet in prices at the pump? It was $1.20/L here but now $1.16/L. Barely a drop compared to oil itself.

    I have a feeling they are mitigating the issue of lower oil costs at the pump.
    I also heard a rumor that Saudi Arabia oil companies have huge stakes in various gas pumps around the world and that prices stay up because of them. I was hoping prices would drop.


    Usually orders from the oilfield take 1-3 weeks to reach pump so your price reflects older broker prices like looking the sky you take a pixture of the past.
    A perfect arbitrage scheme and actually many refineries made mountains of money by exploiting this simple fact Wink  

    And yet, Ontario already saw a 15 cent decrease per L and we are paying roughly the same. So why they end up with decrease already?

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  Hannibal Barca on Thu Oct 16, 2014 8:18 pm

    Different places different traders. Some get the stuff faster than others or have more demand and more supplies.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  Austin on Thu Oct 16, 2014 8:27 pm

    sepheronx wrote:

    What do you pay in gas? Or are you a gov employee getting discounts? Lol.

    By gas if you mean Petrol because in India no one calls it gas except for CNG vehical that uses Gas.

    Different cities have different rates depending on the central and state tax and there are different kind of petrol normal and high octane.

    I dont remember exactly how much a liter of petrol will cost today in my city Mumbai as I dont own any vehical but I can find it out for you by tommorow.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  sepheronx on Thu Oct 16, 2014 8:29 pm

    Thanks Austin. Yeah, i would imagine driving in Mumbai is terrible and its faster to walk or take transit.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  Austin on Thu Oct 16, 2014 8:32 pm

    sepheronx wrote:Thanks Austin. Yeah, i would imagine driving in Mumbai is terrible and its faster to walk or take transit.

    You bet and now we have Metro so its much more better , I generally take metro while going to office and walk back home ...... it nothing else it burns a bit of calorie Wink

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  Austin on Thu Oct 16, 2014 8:36 pm

    Looks like Saudi is hell bent on dropping the Oil Price to $70 from the news report

    http://www.vedomosti.ru/finance/news/34833321/strany-persidskogo-zaliva-ne-namereny-sokraschat-dobychu-na

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  Austin on Thu Oct 16, 2014 8:38 pm

    Ministry of Economic Development acknowledged the likelihood of a recession in 2015

    Читайте далее: http://www.vedomosti.ru/politics/news/34823091/minekonomrazvitiya-priznalo-veroyatnost-recessii-v-2015-g#ixzz3GKng04lR

    Ministry of Economic Development is considering various scenarios of economic development for 2015-2017., Including stress option proposed by the Central Bank. When you save the current market prices the economy in 2015 could decline, said Deputy Minister of Economic Development Alexei Vedev . "We are, of course, in this research, and $ 60 per barrel, we have lived and even when some of them dreamed of. Economy is much more adapted than it seems, is actually much more stable, "- he said, answering the question, considering whether the Ministry of Economic Development of the Central Bank stress scenario with oil prices fall to $ 60 a barrel.


    Commenting on the issue, whether the economy will decline in 2015 at current oil prices, Vedev said: "There is such an option."


    According to the forecast released by the Ministry of   "Option A" average oil price of Urals in 2015 is expected to reach $ 91 per barrel, and in 2016-2017. it is assumed to stabilize at $ 90 per barrel.


    At that price, Ministry of Economic Development of Russia's GDP forecast a decline in 2015 by 0.6% and the recovery of growth at the level of 1,7-2,8% in 2016-2017.
    Today, the Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak explained why not see the tragedy in lower oil prices. "Earlier this year, the price reached $ 120 per barrel despite the fact that in the last three years has been an average of $ 100. If we had $ 120, and now $ 83-85, average weather will be about $ 100. Maybe it is not necessary to make a tragedy that the price dropped slightly and now all afraid.


    Price fluctuations, sine - this is normal. You need to watch the price of the average for the year and then to predict the trends for the coming years - 2015-2016 "- said Novak.


    Recently, the rating agency S & P forecasted reduction in Russia's economy in the second half of the year, for 2014 growth will be about 0.3%. The reason - the two types of sanctions, says S & P: Russia to limit access to foreign financial markets and restrictions on food imports by Russia, which led to a food supply shock caused the acceleration of inflation. In the periodic review of the Center for Development of HSE "Comments about the state and business," 20 September - 3 October said that in the short term risk of transition of the Russian economy from stagnation to a full recession in September "Got a little more." Forecast made at the price of Russian oil at $ 92 per barrel.

    Читайте далее: http://www.vedomosti.ru/politics/news/34823091/minekonomrazvitiya-priznalo-veroyatnost-recessii-v-2015-g#ixzz3GKnoGNY6



    sepheronx
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  sepheronx on Thu Oct 16, 2014 8:49 pm

    Well, I wouldnt be surprised really. Seems Europe is facing a recession and they are Russias major trading partner. Depends on how mich the recession is. As long as it isnt the 2008 shock (-9%) then its doable, just need to change the economic model.
    I agree with what you previously said Austin about changing the budget to reflect low oil prices. This in turn will force the gov to look at other economic options. With import substitution industry now creating an industrial boom in Russia, added the low currency value, it will now be even cheaper to do business in Russia and these new industries or old ones, will be able to pull in more.

    Chinese investors in Russia are probablh salivating, as it means even cheaper production for them.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  kvs on Thu Oct 16, 2014 11:18 pm

    The US can't win this game of chicken with Russia by definition. World oil production is extremely tight these days.
    Non conventional (e.g. fracked oil and tar sands) are the main source of new supply. These are very expensive to
    produce and, as noted above, below $80 per barrel they start to become non-viable. So we have a situation where
    pushing prices down will push production down and without any slack in the system the prices will rebound.

    The other problem is that the US leadership has drunk too much of the koolaid it's media propaganda mouthpieces
    have been spewing. Russia is not a banana republic dependent on an export commodity for its economic existence.
    In reality, most of Russia's GDP growth over the last 15 years has been due to domestic consumption. Russia's
    problem is not the oil price but the amount of imports it brings in. Thanks to sanctions and the ruble exchange
    rate fall, these imports are in serious decline. And Russia's economy is advanced enough to offer substitutes.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  Austin on Sat Oct 18, 2014 12:24 pm

    Russian CBR says they plan to make Rouble Free Floating by Jan 1,2015

    Russia on track to let rouble float freely - central bank chief

    It has since relaxed its intervention rules to widen the rouble's trading "corridor" of rates against a basket of currencies and reduce the amount it spends before shifting the boundaries of the corridor.

    Nabiullina reiterated that the central bank will let the rouble float freely from Jan. 1, scrapping the trading corridor as part of a long-term policy shift, although it will still intervene if risks to financial stability emerge.

    "A floating exchange rate allows (the economy) to bear external shocks, to restrain fluctuations in interest rates," Nabiullina said.


    "We will constantly monitor the situation - which now is under control - and if necessary, will intervene. But to spend the gold and foreign currency reserves over a short period of time, that will not be constructive."

    Nabiullina said that even when the rouble starts floating next year the central bank will keep intervening in the currency market if risks to financial stability emerge.

    "For now (the rouble) is not freely floating, but it is influenced by market factors, including oil prices," Nabiullina said. "Having said that, in our opinion fixing the exchange rate is a counterproductive decision, since this will contradict market factors which we can't control."

    The central bank's stated goal is to shift away from a policy of supporting the rouble to place greater emphasis on bringing down stubbornly high inflation.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  Austin on Sat Oct 18, 2014 4:34 pm

    Makes good read as the Author is from Official Russian Institute

    For Russia to lower oil prices reduce dangerous

    http://itar-tass.com/opinions/2292

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  Austin on Sat Oct 18, 2014 5:05 pm

    Ruble devaluation compensates for loss of oil revenue

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  Viktor on Sun Oct 19, 2014 1:22 am

    30-35 bin $ project will go along thumbsup

    Russia, China to agree basics of cooperation on Moscow-Kazan rail line project by Dec 15

    China is replacing western companies in basically all Russian energy sector

    China to have joint venture with Russia in LNG production

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  Austin on Sun Oct 19, 2014 12:22 pm

    Russia’s reserve fund may be used up in two years amid current negative tendencies

    http://en.itar-tass.com/economy/755188

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  Viktor on Sun Oct 19, 2014 12:34 pm

    Austin wrote:Russia’s reserve fund may be used up in two years amid current negative tendencies

    http://en.itar-tass.com/economy/755188

    Russian international reserves are 700 bin $ (one of those fonds hold 90 bin$)

    If Russia would it could spend all 700 bin $ in one year and in that regard this article might as well be

    "Medvedev:Oh my God, Russia without money by the end of next year" Very Happy but of course it makes no sence.

    China is largest USA creditor and now will be Russia creditor too instead of EU and USA. So thats all whats gona happen.


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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  kvs on Sun Oct 19, 2014 3:37 pm

    Austin wrote:Russia’s reserve fund may be used up in two years amid current negative tendencies

    http://en.itar-tass.com/economy/755188

    This is total BS. The reserve fund would be used to shore up Russia's financial industry in case of a meltdown such as the
    one in 1998 and 2008. There is no way it would be used to counter a budget deficit. All of this yapping is so lame it
    makes one's head hurt. Russia can run sizable deficits for the next few years and would still have less total debt than
    the vast majority of the countries on the planet.

    The Russian deficit would be about 2% of GDP and over the next three years it would raise Russia's debt to 16% of GDP.
    The average debt for the OECD is 113% of GDP and for emerging economies is 25%. The sky is falling, the sky is falling.

    There are too many of these idiots in Russia who spout off sensationalist statements. Golikova should keep her trap
    shut since she is only destabilizing Russia's investment climate. If she was in the west she would lose her position over
    such irresponsible and inflammatory statements.

    The ones who should be worried about low oil prices are NATO. The non-conventional supply from fracking and tar sands
    is all that is keeping the current supply from collapsing. This production depends on high oil prices. This is not a debatable
    fact.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  kvs on Sun Oct 19, 2014 3:47 pm

    http://government.by/ru/content/5730

    The Belorus government is concerned about losses by its exporters of food goods to Russia. They were
    expecting a large windfall from the sanctions war with the EU, but instead are seeing losses. The devaluation
    of the ruble has led to lower demand.

    Since Russians are not starving, it means that import substitution is even happening in the food sector.
    NATO is going to be completely surprised by the outcome of its attempt to coerce Russia into backstabbing
    the rebels in the Donbas. NATO leaders have made the fatal mistake of believing their own propaganda
    about Russia's economy.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  magnumcromagnon on Sun Oct 19, 2014 3:50 pm

    Excellent article on Russia's re-industrialization. According to this Rostec article the Boris Yeltsin's 90's era of monetarist (or money-tsarist) austerity has caused Russia to recede it's production capacity to 1/25th of it's capability. In other words when Russia's fully re-industrializes with new superior domestic made machine tools, Russia's production capability in both civilian and military sectors will jump by a wide margin. Apparently they have at least 40 new advanced machine tool prototypes already:

    The revival of the machine tool industry

    The new infrastructure will not depend on foreign supplies



    Machine tool industry today is highly dependent on foreign supplies,  clustering is designed to solve this problem.

    Over the next three years, the Russian industry must master the production of complex components that were previously imported from abroad. This was stated by Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin on the forum " TVM 2014 " . Active import substitution should occur in the machine tool industry as one of the most dependent on foreign supplies of domestic industries. Help solve this important problem can including the Development Fund for Industry, a decree on the creation of which Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev signed on September 2.

    During Soviet times, with tank-building  was an independent and highly developed industry. According to the Industry and Trade Ministry of Russia, the share of imports in the machine tool industry now exceeds 90%. For comparison: in heavy engineering - 60 - 80%, light industry - 70 - 90%, in the electronic industry - 80 - 90%, in the pharmaceutical and medical industry - 70 - 80%. " Indicator of 50-60% can be achieved In the case of a deliberate policy of import substitution. In some sectors will be able to get out even better performance " , - said Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation Sergey Tsyb.

    Over the past 20 years, the domestic market has undergone Engineering Technology quantitative and qualitative changes, the volume of equipment decreased compared with 1991, more than 25 times. In the USSR, machine tools, as the basis for technological independence and technological industrial base DIC received privileged resources: the necessary equipment, materials and supplies. Research institutes sector were equal to the Research Institute of the defense industry under compensation of scientists and engineers, to ensure that R & D funding, etc.



    Today our country has practically ceased production of the main components for the production of machine tools and forging equipment (PAC). Machine tools with numerical control almost completed imported from Germany and Japan, CNC systems, sensors, measuring systems, robots, electrical and electronic products, hydraulic systems, etc. The main suppliers of components are

    According to the CEO of the company " Stankoprom " Sergei Makarov, one of the key problems in the industry is the backwardness of its own production base. Including lost the confidence of the Russian consumers to domestically produced equipment. Lost production culture and prestige of the machine-tool trades, and as a result, we have a shortage of qualified workers.

    " Age of equipment in all industries has considerable wear. Today, 75 - 80% of the park metalworking equipment used for more than 20 years. Since 1991, virtually no change of equipment was conducted or conducted by a factor of updates, no more than 1% per year. In the structure of machinery, presses and only 4.5% in operation less than five years - said Giorgi Samodurov, president of the Russian Association " Stankoinstrument " . - Machine Tool Degradation occurs primarily because of the lack of investment for a long time " . According to the expert, low attractiveness of the industry for domestic investors due to the very low level of profitability (2 - 5%), which is typical for high-tech industries. Foreign investors are not willing to invest in the development of domestic technologies that directly compete with their manufacturers. The only investor in the machine-tool industry, as well as for the defense industry, can only serve the state.

    The tax burden on manufacturers in many countries is much lower than in Russia. " Recently, our contacts with major construction companies operating in Russia inviting them to create a joint venture abut in this problem. They'd better find in our country intermediary to create with them supposedly a joint venture (usually on paper), to find a warehouse here and deliver equipment, finished products, call it made ​​in Russia and ensure yourself a good financial condition. All this is due to the imperfection of our defense mechanisms " , - says Samodurov.



    Clustering in the machine tool industry is still in its initial stage. Perhaps the first powerful cluster in the machine tool industry will be a group of " Stan " , which includes STANKOZAVOD Sterlitamaka, Ryazan, Ivanovo, Kolomna and, presumably, Saratov. Feature of this group is the presence of an integrator in the form of the banking system with the ability to attract resources for technical re-equipment, develop new products, to attract qualified professionals, etc.

    Subject to obtaining bank resources " shoot " can cluster in St. Petersburg. To do this, there are all the prerequisites: the presence of machine-tool industries, companies producing components, highly qualified staff, a significant number of defense enterprises.

    According to Sergei Makarov, " Stankoprom " is considering the establishment of joint enterprises of machine tool, in particular, clusters of machine tool and tool production facilities in several areas of CFD. In late August, " Stankoprom " signed a cooperation agreement with the administration of the Lipetsk region.

    Some support machine tool provided subroutine " The development of domestic machine tool and tool industry for the period 2011 - 2 016 years, " the federal program " National Technological Base " . Program will not only survive the machine tool enterprises, able to develop and manufacture prototypes of about 40 types of equipment. The second phase of the program - from 2014 and 2016 - provides for the development of R & D as well as a number of investment projects designed to re-equipment of individual enterprises. " In our opinion, it is necessary to significantly increase financial support for the machine tool and to provide him with benefits in various areas (subsidies payment of interest on loans, reducing or zeroing certain taxes, etc.). Significant support to the industry can have a government resolution of 24 December 2013 № 1224 on restrictions on the admission of foreign goods to the procurement for the needs of national defense and national security. It is only necessary to adjust the control over its execution, as a discipline of its implementation defense companies is very low " , - concludes George Samodurov.

    http://rostec.ru/news/4514841


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