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    Russian Economy General News: #3

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    sepheronx
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    Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  sepheronx on Sat Oct 11, 2014 12:07 pm

    Austin wrote:Ilya Kramnik has write up on Defence Cuts

    As far as Russia could cut military spending in the next 10-15 years?

    Accounting for sacred cows

    http://en.itar-tass.com/russia/753784

    I posted an article stating the cuts wont happen. Just another random person trying to gain their own fame through making up cuts.

    Pretty much till 2018, the defense budget will be safe.

    Austin
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  Austin on Sat Oct 11, 2014 2:00 pm

    sepheronx wrote:
    Austin wrote:Ilya Kramnik has write up on Defence Cuts

    As far as Russia could cut military spending in the next 10-15 years?

    Accounting for sacred cows

    http://en.itar-tass.com/russia/753784

    I posted an article stating the cuts wont happen. Just another random person trying to gain their own fame through making up cuts.

    Pretty much till 2018, the defense budget will be safe.

    From 2017 the defence budget will any way go down.

    I suspect if Rouble Falls further like goes to to 42-44 average then they will have to relook the budget.

    I dont mind if they cut 1-2 trillion Rouble which is approx $50 Billion for 2 Trillion and then they can look into it after 2020

    Viktor
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  Viktor on Sat Oct 11, 2014 2:39 pm

    Austin wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:
    Austin wrote:Ilya Kramnik has write up on Defence Cuts

    As far as Russia could cut military spending in the next 10-15 years?

    Accounting for sacred cows

    http://en.itar-tass.com/russia/753784

    I posted an article stating the cuts wont happen. Just another random person trying to gain their own fame through making up cuts.

    Pretty much till 2018, the defense budget will be safe.

    From 2017 the defence budget will any way go down.

    I suspect if Rouble Falls further like goes to to 42-44 average then they will have to relook the budget.

    I dont mind if they cut 1-2 trillion Rouble which is approx $50 Billion for 2 Trillion and then they can look into it after 2020
    I agree fully but look at another aspect of the same story. Russia was supposed to have 1million army from years back but it does not. It has around 800 000 and the money saved because of that non-existant 200 000 is certainly not negliable. Given 2010-2020 time frame we can talk about lots of trillions of Rubles saved and redirected to another more important things. Another aspect of the story is that certain weapons will be late with development and/or introduction in the service anyway meaning some money will be saved there too. Im sure also Russia has some money for black days also to pull the programs it needs to be pulled without delay and Im not thinking about reserve fonds Smile ... Anyway there where some talk a few years back about Russian Federation introduction of new system of calculating its GDP because it uses old one from the 90ies unlike west which artificialy means smaller GDP. Any news about that?

    sepheronx
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  sepheronx on Sat Oct 11, 2014 8:58 pm

    Austin wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:
    Austin wrote:Ilya Kramnik has write up on Defence Cuts

    As far as Russia could cut military spending in the next 10-15 years?

    Accounting for sacred cows

    http://en.itar-tass.com/russia/753784

    I posted an article stating the cuts wont happen. Just another random person trying to gain their own fame through making up cuts.

    Pretty much till 2018, the defense budget will be safe.

    From 2017 the defence budget will any way go down.

    I suspect if Rouble Falls further like goes to to 42-44 average then they will have to relook the budget.

    I dont mind if they cut 1-2 trillion Rouble which is approx $50 Billion for 2 Trillion and then they can look into it after 2020

    No they wouldn't.  Ruble value makes sense if they import which they are not or stopping any import for military.  Maybe extending SAP2020 could happen if they are worried about the budget.  But the value of the Ruble for that would only mean they could increase it since a large portion of their reserves are in currencies not the Ruble.  Hence why they were able to drop the debt quite a bit.

    As for 2017 and after. It matters based upon what is left needed to be completed in the contracts. How I see it, they need the equipment badly, especially in these troubled times and Russia ever so more getting surrounded by enemies thanks to US policies. Add to that, the military industrial complex account for 25% of Russia's manufacturing and it is second to Russia's exports. I would imagine that investing more into them will do better for Russia. If it means privatizing some companies in order to get the budget, fine. Or, if stretching SAP2020 further so that it stretchs each years budget more, then that is fine too. But as long as the military gets what it needs. New bases, new personnell (more too, since 800,000 isn't enough) and new equipment.

    Hell, the Rupee dropped even more than the Ruble, yet they managed to increase defense spending anyway, and they are a major importer of it. Russia is a major developer of it, so I cannot see why they couldn't.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  Austin on Sun Oct 12, 2014 7:47 am

    Here is an nice chart for Oil Prices Break Even and Current Account for major Oil Exporting Countries


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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  Hannibal Barca on Sun Oct 12, 2014 9:55 am

    This is an interesting chart at first look but then someone may wonder why the hell they need a positive fiscal account when pretty much nobody has it in the west....
    This is like when the cunts speak about whether China will SUCCEED in her target of 7.5% But even with 7.4% they still beat the pants off anyone else.
    What a twisted logic.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  GarryB on Sun Oct 12, 2014 10:20 am

    This is like when the cunts speak about whether China will SUCCEED in her target of 7.5% But even with 7.4% they still beat the pants off anyone else.
    What a twisted logic.

    The west is an expert in making success look like failure...


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    sepheronx
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  sepheronx on Sun Oct 12, 2014 2:43 pm

    Yeah. They said Chinas growth is slowing down and they may loom at stagnation.... at a wopping 7.4% gdp growth. China is still the best effective economy in the world and they are trying to make it look like they are failing.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  higurashihougi on Sun Oct 12, 2014 3:01 pm

    sepheronx wrote:Yeah. They said Chinas growth is slowing down and they may loom at stagnation.... at a wopping 7.4% gdp growth. China is still the best effective economy in the world and they are trying to make it look like they are failing.

    It is what we call "propaganda".

    Yes, the West always blabber about "propaganda" in the East, but the biggest whitewashing machine is located somewhere in the "freedom land".

    But to be fair, there are elements who are threatening the rapid growth of China. For example, pollution, old techs, massive population, big wealth gap, high level of corrpution.

    China has to find a way to fix all these issues in order to solidify its position as a global power.


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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  Austin on Sun Oct 12, 2014 5:58 pm

    The West is essential Jealous of  Chinese Growth , What took the West like many decades and generations to build China managed to do in just 25 years Razz

    My only regret is Russia should have alligned with China Economy 15 years back and shouldn't have waited for West to slap them.

    Russia needs low debt and balance budget because unlike West it cannot print Euro/USD and increase debt as it wishes and make it look good , Russia also depends on highly fluid oil price.

    sepheronx
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  sepheronx on Sun Oct 12, 2014 7:41 pm

    It could if it wasnt for the fact CB is its own entity. We gotta dig up Yeltsin to blame him. Now essentially, Russia will have to start fresh again.

    Oh well, let this be a lesson to never trust the west. Atleast Russia still has industry that many western countries wish they had.

    As well,as for oil price, before stating what country relies on what, lets wait to see what the outcome is, because KVS and I both pointed out that it is flawed logic about reliance on resource. So far, Russia is operating on surplus thus it isnt nearly hit.  Foreign entities in west relies on debt as they dont make anything anymore but somehow come up rich. Russia could do the same internally, but that may lead to major future problems.

    The $1trillion question is, why can they give long term low interest rate loans to foreign entities but not domestic? Because of CB.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  Rmf on Sun Oct 12, 2014 9:32 pm

    With this price would be catastrophic for american oil producers as well.
    that shale oil boom could just be a new trillion $ bubble waiting to happen which would make housing market crash childs play...
    Many of them function on credits obligations and "future profits" expectations, and since extraction is very expencive the squeeze starts to hurt at 90-70$ range depending on well ,much earlier and more then russian conventional producers.
    Russian budget would be hurt , but half of USA domestic production would crash- demanding imports and thus - return of higher price.
    Ofcourse , Chinese are biggest winners in this lower oil price game.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  Viktor on Sun Oct 12, 2014 10:50 pm

    WoooooooooW  thumbsup  thumbsup  thumbsup  nice going

    Iran, Russia sign 70-billion projects to boost trade, economic ties

    in national currencies  Very Happy

    Iran and Russia have agreed to use national currencies in bilateral trade.

    Iran, Russia can boost trade exchanges tenfold: Zangeneh

    and the joint bank

    Iran, Russia planning to establish joint bank

    kvs
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  kvs on Mon Oct 13, 2014 4:27 am

    The discussion about Russia being hurt low oil prices is the purest of propaganda drivel. Recall when Obama ran
    a $1.5 trillion deficit (thanks to Bush, but that is beside the point)? I do not remember hearing wails of doom
    from the pundits that were and still are paraded by the western media. The US had a deficit 10% of GDP. Russia
    is not facing a deficit on this scale and if there is a deficit it will not extend into the indefinite future.

    Just as with China, Russia is "stagnating" if its GDP growth isn't large enough in the demented narrative
    pushed by the western media. Meanwhile some of the most productive economies of the west (e.g. Germany)
    are seeing triple dip recessions. This is exceedingly rare and unheard of during the post WWII period and highlights
    that there are chronic economic problems facing the west. Perhaps they should stop with the trash talk aimed at
    Russia and deal with their own problems.

    Austin
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  Austin on Mon Oct 13, 2014 7:17 am

    Are they sure its 70 Billion Euros or its just type

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  Asf on Mon Oct 13, 2014 8:09 am

    Beriev-200 going to be built in USA

    Where are the sanctions, then they are needed the most? Let them buy russian-build ones

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  Mike E on Mon Oct 13, 2014 8:22 am

    Asf wrote:
    Beriev-200 going to be built in USA

    Where are the sanctions, then they are needed the most? Let them buy russian-build ones
    I wish they'd build them in RU, but that isn't going to happen... Ironic that even through all the sanctions, the US needs Russian equipment one way or another!

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  Asf on Mon Oct 13, 2014 8:33 am

    I wish they'd build them in RU, but that isn't going to happen... Ironic that even through all the sanctions, the US needs Russian equipment one way or another!

    So why not to let them go f**k themselves instead of Be-200 or rocket engines until they stop sanctions? In the other way it's nice to have money for the planes, helicopters for Aughanistan, ect, but I'm really pissed of with such hypocrisy of one-way sanctions

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  par far on Tue Oct 14, 2014 12:30 am

    What does this mean?

    http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-saudi-arabia-and-oil-prices-2014-10


    What can Russia do here?


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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  kvs on Tue Oct 14, 2014 1:24 am

    par far wrote:What does this mean?

    http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-saudi-arabia-and-oil-prices-2014-10


    What can Russia do here?



    There is no comparison with the situation during the 1980s when Saudi Arabia cranked up production and drove world prices
    for oil down for a sustained period of years. Today Saudi Arabia does not have anywhere near the spare capacity it had
    in the 1980s. All their new field development has produced heavy sour crude. Anyway, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia can't
    even crank up its production by 1 million barrels per day.

    Since the 1980s, world demand for oil has gone up significantly but the supply has barely kept up. We have been on a
    plateau in production of crude and condensate globally since 2006. There has been a surge in US production from non-conventional
    sources in the last few years, but that is not enough to service the world. So crashing oil prices indicate economic recession
    and oil futures shenanigans.

    If the world oil price crashes too much then all of the non-conventional US production will become non-viable economically.
    So do not expect the oil price to crash and stay depressed for years. We are going to see a crash in production if the price
    gets too low.

    Russia has nothing to fear. The oil price will not fall to $50 per barrel. It might bounce into the $70 range for short periods
    of time, but then it will spike back to over $110. It's a supply constrained market. Global demand is not dominated by
    discretionary consumption and most of the demand growth has been from China, India and other developing nations. They
    are not going stop consuming especially if the price drops.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  kvs on Tue Oct 14, 2014 2:18 am

    I forgot to add a vital detail. The ruble exchange rate is falling faster than the oil price so Russia is actually getting more
    national currency for its oil. Russia does not operate on dollars but on rubles. Dollars are for investment and the bottom
    line is not affected.

    It looks like these sanctions and oil price games are going to be an epic fail.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  GarryB on Tue Oct 14, 2014 3:42 am

    Seems to me that these sanctions are forcing Russia to invest in a range of technologies it has imported up until now... many areas that in fact would leave Russia vulnerable like in electronics and other important areas.

    With domestic substitution of key technologies other areas are funded and with the domestic demand these areas should expand and perhaps might reach a level where they are internationally competitive with their western alternatives.'

    Lets be realistic, that means nothing in the domestic market as few western companies would likely buy such components from Russia but the west constitutes only a small portion of the worlds population and people in the rest of the world might decide that with a devalued Rouble that Russian components will start looking much cheaper than western equivalents and there would be no chance of back doors imposed on the makers by the NSA or CIA or any other evil three letter US acronym organisation, which would be an added attraction.


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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  Austin on Tue Oct 14, 2014 6:43 am

    The article has good read on what low oil price means

    As the price of oil drops, so do hopes for Russia's economic future


    Siluanov predicted that Russia’s budget would lack 500 billon rubles (nearly $12.5 billion) if oil prices drop to $87 per barrel and the dollar-ruble exchange rate trades as high as 40 in 2015. In such a scenario, Russia would have to use money from its Reserve Fund, which comprises about $90 billion, he announced at the Oct. 13 session of the State Duma, the lower chamber of the Russian parliament.

    Today Ural Blend trade at $87 and Rouble is at 40.32

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  sepheronx on Tue Oct 14, 2014 7:15 am

    If Russia comes out with a GDP growth (even if very small like 0.1%) I am going to laugh.

    That said, the article isn't bad, title is just outright stupid.  All this will do is force Russia to change economic policies and look at other methods to the economy rather than just oil and gas.  They may look more at their own population to prop themselves up by offering cheaper gas on domestic market. What is funny, the doom and gloom seems to be always pointed at Russia. But even with Sanctions up the ying yang, Iran survived. They have their issues, but a lot of it is due to poor management and lack of freedom in economy. Outside of that, they are still producing.

    The question is, how will this effect countries like US and Canada?  Canada's main export is pretty much oil and gas, besides US made automobiles.  US Fracking will be in trouble and Saudi Arabia relies on oil and gas sales, especially in keeping their people together.

    Russia on the other hand, has their industrial strength to fall back on.  Maybe not the biggest money maker, but at least they do produce cars, tools, heavy industrial equipment, agriculture etc etc etc.  They will just have to find a market for it and I guess they knew something like this would eventually end up happening, since they are looking towards latin america, Africa and Caucuses to sell their products to.

    As for having to use reserve funds, they can effectively use their foreign reserve as well, which still stands at over $450B even though CB used a lot of it in order to pay off debt.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  Austin on Tue Oct 14, 2014 8:54 am

    sepheronx wrote:If Russia comes out with a GDP growth (even if very small like 0.1%) I am going to laugh.

    That said, the article isn't bad, title is just outright stupid.  All this will do is force Russia to change economic policies and look at other methods to the economy rather than just oil and gas.  They may look more at their own population to prop themselves up by offering cheaper gas on domestic market.  What is funny, the doom and gloom seems to be always pointed at Russia.  But even with Sanctions up the ying yang, Iran survived.  They have their issues, but a lot of it is due to poor management and lack of freedom in economy.  Outside of that, they are still producing.

    The question is, how will this effect countries like US and Canada?  Canada's main export is pretty much oil and gas, besides US made automobiles.  US Fracking will be in trouble and Saudi Arabia relies on oil and gas sales, especially in keeping their people together.

    Russia on the other hand, has their industrial strength to fall back on.  Maybe not the biggest money maker, but at least they do produce cars, tools, heavy industrial equipment, agriculture etc etc etc.  They will just have to find a market for it and I guess they knew something like this would eventually end up happening, since they are looking towards latin america, Africa and Caucuses to sell their products to.

    As for having to use reserve funds, they can effectively use their foreign reserve as well, which still stands at over $450B even though CB used a lot of it in order to pay off debt.


    You know I have heard the bolded part before from Russian Government in the many years I have been following them.

    When Oil Prices Fall they say we need to get from Oil Dependencies blah blah blah ........When Oil Prices Rise its all gone and forgotten.

    The more they change the more things remain the same Mad

    I would only believe if they do something concrete else its all BS Talk for Talk Stuff

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