Thoughts on the four day war of 2016 - Spring, 2016
It is said that the tree of liberty must be refreshed from time-to-time with the blood of patriots and tyrants. Armenia's tree of liberty was watered amply this spring. I salute those who gave their lives in the defense of our homeland with the words of Garegin Njdeh - Մահ չիմացեալ մահ է, Մահ իմացեալ՝ անմահություն: Our martyrs are now immortal and our tree of liberty has just grown a bit stronger.
Now, with that said, I would like to express additional thoughts on the four day war that took place between April o2 and April o6, 2016. I will most probably state things that will not be appreciated (or comprehended) by a vast majority of my Armenian readers. Knowing that talking to Armenians about geopolitics is like talking to a five year old child about the meaning of life (i.e. pointless), I would like to ask those of you who think that the war was a great victory for Armenia; or that this war proved that Armenia can go it alone in the south Caucasus; or that this war proved Russians are anti-Armenian backstabbers; or that Armenia now needs to seek security guarantees from the West, to please refrain from reading the rest of this commentary and just go back to your silly little fantasy world where everything is black and white; where evil doers are punished and good people are awarded; where Armenians are an invincible superpower when united; where Armenia's allies enthusiastically go out of their way to make Armenia happy all the time; and the where politics is like a street fight or a bar brawl.
What happened in Nagorno Karabakh (Arm: Artsakh) was a short but violent war that shocked the world. The global community realized that there was yet another hot spot in the world that could ignite a world war. Although confined to border areas of the yet unrecognized Armenian enclave, the clash between Armenian and Azeris troops saw the utilization of newly developed attack drones, special forces, combat helicopters, main battle tanks, heavy artillery and multiple rocket launchers. About one hundred Armenian lives were lost. Armenia is a small nation. Life is therefore precious for Armenians. I hope to see their deaths serve a greater purpose for the motherland. Ultimately, that purpose would be the recognition of Artskah's independence or its unification with Armenia. Not officially recognizing Artsakh's independence (or its reunification with Armenia) made political sense as long as the ceasefire was maintained between the two sides and the region avoided a war. Despite periodic ceasefire violations, Yerevan's grand plan worked for a long time. But it's not working anymore. Baku is desperate. Turkey is desperate. Western powers may be seeking to create a new hot spot on Russia's southern border. For its part, Moscow may now be ready to finally settle the festering dispute and in doing so increase its footprint in the strategic region. Yerevan needs to recognize that the status quo which worked so well for Armenia during the past twenty years is gradually coming to an end. The south Caucasus stands on the verge of a new chapter. There will be a new calculus at play. It's time for official Yerevan to formulate a new approach.
Times like this is when the quality and depth of Armenia's alliance with the Russian Bear comes to the forefront. This is why I have been calling for closer, deeper Russian-Armenian relations for over a decade.
What happened on April 02 was not or should not have been a surprise to anyone who has been observing developments in the region during the past few years. In fact, many observers were predicting this kind of an escalation by Baku. We knew Baku was violating the ceasefire all along Armenia's and Artsakh's border with Azerbaijan on a regular basis; we knew Azerbaijan was spending billions of dollars on weapons acquisitions from around the world; we knew Baku was growing increasingly desperate as a result of falling oil prices; we knew Baku's spiritual partners in Ankara were growing increasingly belligerent; we speculated that due to their defeat in Syria, anti-Russian interests in the region may attempt to bring problems closer to Russia's borders in the south Caucasus; there was increasing chatter that 2016 was to be the year when the dispute over Artsakh got resolved. In hindsight, Aliyev may have also been seeking to divert public attention from the so-called "Panama Papers". We therefore had been waiting for something like this to happen for some time now.
There are also subtle indicators that Baku's most recent aggression against Armenia was agreed to or even planned by not only Ankara but also by Western powers. The intent may have been to punish Yerevan for its close military ties with Russia and, as noted above, to divert Moscow's attention from Syria. After all, there had been a flurry of anti-Armenian and anti-Russian rhetoric coming out of Western capitols in recent months, and the tiny country called Armenia was being described as a threat to NATO. I personally think that the seeds of this most recent bloodletting in the south Caucasus can be found in the contents of the following articles -
U.S. Intelligence Chief Warns Of Karabakh Escalation: http://asbarez.com/145845/u-s-intelligence-chief-warns-of-karabakh-escalation/
Alexey Martynov: «Whom is scaring US intelligence by Karabakh war?: http://rusarminfo.ru/alexey-martynov-whom-is-scaring-us-intelligence-by-karabakh-war/
Is Armenia the Next Turkish-Russian Flashpoint?: http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/is-armenia-the-next-turkish-russian-flashpoint
Radio Liberty: Experts Cast Doubt On Yerevan's Claims Over Nagorno-Karabakh:http://www.rferl.org/content/armenia-nagorno-karabakh-army-synergy/27656532.html
Turkey’s Lobbyists Seek U.S. Help By Calling Tiny Armenia A Big Threat: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/turkey-lobbyists-armenia_us_56fd85a6e4b0a06d58054b16
Security Ties With Russia Reinforce Armenia’s Regional Isolation: http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/trend-lines/18100/security-ties-with-russia-reinforce-armenia-s-regional-isolation
Russia's Staging Bases in Armenia: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/armine-sahakyan/russias-staging-bases-in_b_9339046.html?
US Ambassador: Putin's Newest Satellite State: Armenia: http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2016/02/24/putins-newest-satellite-state/#155181443549
The Russia-Armenia alliance is threatening Turkey, a critical U.S. ally: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-russia-armenia-alliance-is-threatening-turkey-a-critical-us-ally/2016/02/26/18289900-da5f-11e5-8210-f0bd8de915f6_story.html
Amanda Paul: Russia and the militarization of the South Caucasus: http://www.todayszaman.com/columnist/amanda-paul/russia-and-the-militarization-of-the-south-caucasus_393399.html
Putin just sent Armenia MiG-29 fighters and military aid. Here are three key reasons why: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/04/14/putin-just-sent-armenia-mig-29-fighters-and-military-aid-here-are-the-3-key-reasons-why/
We therefore knew Baku, Ankara and Washington were conspiring and all three conspirators were in Washington the week before the Azeri offensive against Artsakh. Merely two days before Azerbaijan's military incursion into Artsakh, Kerry and Aliyev had a meeting at the US State Department with the quite noticeable absence of President Sargsyan who was also in Washington at the time -
Secretary Kerry Meets with President Aliyev of Azerbaijan: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5pFp0BJvKr8
Russian experts on Aliyev-Kerry meeting in absence of Sargsyan: http://rusarminfo.ru/russian-experts-on-aliyev-kerry-meeting-in-absence-of-sargsyan/
However, because Russian officials were perceived to be somewhat silent and a lot of the military hardware Azeris utilized in their assault were Russian made (although their Israeli made weapons seemed to have made a greater impact on the battlefield), Western-financed mercenaries and Soros-funded organizations like Lragir, Founding Parliament and the rest of the Western-led political opposition in Armenia have begun a full scale campaign to convince Armenians that Russia was behind this most recent assault against Armenian of Artsakh. And encouraged by President Sargsyan's ill-advised criticism of Moscow's arms sales to Baku - done from Western-occupied Germany nonetheless - the anti-Russian hysteria has reached new heights in Armenia. Russia is now being accused of blatantly taking sides against Armenia. Russia is now being accused of backstabbing Armenia. They are also screaming, "Russians stopped the Armenian counteroffensive to save Azerbaijan!" Needless to say, had Russians not stopped the fighting, they would have been screaming, "Russians allowed the fighting to continue so that more Armenians would die!" There is no winning with them. They have an agenda to push after all. Professional Russophobes embedded inside Armenian society are behind all this. Speaking of professional Russophobes, please listen to the words of Igor Muradyan, one of Armenia's top Western agents today -
Ռուսաստանը վերմակն իր վրա է փորձում քաշել և միայնակ զբաղվել ԼՂ հակամարտությամբ: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=38DL_tTaVDU
Agent Muradyan, much like his ideological partners agent Gary Kasparov and agent Paruyr Hayrikian, claims Russia is a defeated nation; claims Russia is a dangerous aggressor nation; claims Russia does not have the power to negotiate anything anymore; and claims Russia can no longer keep its promises about not allowing a war to happen in Artsakh. Agent Muradyan goes on to make the outrageous claim that Turkey is only interest in the region is peace and that the region's only problem is Russia. In my opinion, agent Muradyan's attempt to convince Armenians that Russia and not Turkey was behind Azerbaijan's aggression actually suggests that Baku's aggression was indeed ordered by anti-Russian interests. In my opinion, agent Murdyan's words are evidence that Azerbaijan's latest aggression against Armenia was a test not only for Armenia but also for the Russian Federation. Nevertheless, Western mercenaries will now do all they can, including the dissemination of false news, to make Moscow look like an accomplice in Baku's aggression against Armenia in an ultimate attempt to lead our naive sheeple to the slaughterhouse once more. Armenians are once more being manipulated and led astray.
Smut-peddlers want us to believe that Russia is the enemy
In the eyes of many, the enemy right now is Russia. The hysteria being whipped up inside Armenia Western agents (with the tacit approval of Armenian officials) has gotten unprecedented numbers people these days thinking Russia has back-stabbed Armenia and some are now even shouting Ռուսաստան սիկտիր (Translated: Russia get the f#@k out). Yes, Armenians are telling Russians to get the f#@k out, in Turkish nonetheless. Ok, let's play that game. Let's say Russians heeded Armenian demands and shutdown their army base in Gyumri and air force base in Yerevan and indeed got the f#@k out... but continued to sell weaponry to Azerbaijan but stopped providing weaponry to Armenia, and maybe even decided that Armenians can do without cheep Russian natural gas and benzine. And since Russia did not have an Armenian ally in the region anymore, it simply decided that the best way to keep the region in control was to embroil it in a perpetual state of inter-ethnic war. Then what?!
What's going to deter Turks from venturing into Armenia? Who is going to pay the billions of dollars for the weaponry and training Armenia will need to keep military parity with Azerbaijan? How about the already near-dead Armenian economy? Who is going to put up the money to operate Armenia's national infrastructure? How about the hundreds-of-thousands of Armenian citizens that make their living in Russia? Do these people shouting stupid slogans realize that Armenia is located in southern Caucasus... or do these idiots think they are living in southern California? How stupid are these f#@king people?! Shouting, "stop selling weapons to Baku" is one thing, but "Russia get the f#@k out"?!?!?! It makes no sense. What these people are doing isn't political activism, it isn't protesting, it's sheer madness. What they are doing is actually psychotic and suicidal behavior. They are probably too stupid to know it but they are actually advancing an old Turkish plan. Getting Russians to leave Armenia is actually a Western and Turkish political agenda -
George Friedman: “Russian presence in Armenia is bad for Turkey”: http://theriseofrussia. blogspot.com/2010/11/arye-gut- israeli-jewish-expert-in.html
Turkish Advice: Armenian diaspora, focus on Russia rather than Turkey! http://www.hurriyetdailynews. com/armenian-diaspora-focus- on-russia-rather-than-turkey
Russian General Leonid Ivashov: Turkey Seeks Separation Between Russia and Armenia: http://news.am/eng/news/36696. html
USA trying to break up Armenian-Russian military relations, general says: http://www.eurasianet.org/ resource/a...0005/0040.html
Westerners and Turks know (obviously a lot better than some Armenians) that Armenia simply can't survive without Russia. They know that once Russia is forced out of Armenia, Armenia will be fully at their mercy. This is essentially why all kinds of politicians, activists and news agencies are tasked by Western powers to disseminate anti-Russian rhetoric throughout Armenian society. Due to unique Armenian traits (that are also better recognized by Armenia's enemies), Armenians are proving very susceptible to manipulation and self-destructive behavior. There might be yet another factor. I hate to say this, but the recent battlefield victory we had may have given our idiots in Yerevan a false sense of security and illusions of grandeur. Again I see the cat looking in the mirror and seeing a lion. This cat better not go out to play in the wild without the accompaniment of the bear. If Armenians insist on acting psychotic and continue recklessly playing with the life of the republic - in a Turkic-Islamic environmental nonetheless - I would much rather Armenia become a province within the Russian Federation. Times like this remind me that we Armenians may not yet be ready for statehood.
A few additional words about today's Western-funded anti-Russian community: It is quite common to hear from them that serious changes will be taking place in the world in the next ten years or so and that Russia will be destroyed in the end. Like brain-dead members of an evil cult, our professional Russophobes are convinced of it. They claim therefore to want to save Armenia by making Yerevan break its ties with Moscow... that is, before Russia is finally destroyed. Well, that the world is heading toward uncharted territory and that we are in the midst of a world war today is well known. What's obviously not known however is whether Russia (or the West for that matter) will be destroyed in the end. I am pretty confident Russia won't be the one destroyed. Russia has faced much tougher challenged in the past and it has come out stronger every time. It is the Western world that is in decline today, which is why they are setting fires around the world. Besides, all this talk about "Russia will fall" is a moot point because Armenia does not have a choice in the matter. Armenia has no choice but to remain within Russia's orbit. Armenians better realize that if Russia is forced out of the south Caucasus, the south Caucasus will turn back into a Turkic/Islamic cesspool regardless of whether or not Armenia has good relations with the West.
Armenians also better take a good look at Cypriots, Serbians, Ukrainians, Kurds and Georgians to name only a few and realize that the West can never-ever be a security guarantee for Armenia. When it comes to matters pertaining to its national security, Armenia's only option is to firmly maintain its strategic alliance with Russia; better understand the geopolitical calculus of the region; and be better prepared militarily for a worst case scenario. Yet, due to our people's political illiteracy we are constantly getting distracted and mislead by our enemies. Speaking of Western psy-ops targeted at Armenians, take a look at the following two articles. One is by the CIA-affiliated Stratfor and the other is by Soros-funded Open Democracy. One is trying to drive a wedge between Moscow and Yerevan, the other is trying to foment a color revolution in Yerevan. Their rhetoric sounds exactly like what our Western activists in Armenia say all the time -
Armenia's Fair-Weather Allies: https://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical-diary/armenias-fair-weather-allies
Why Armenians are successful everywhere except Armenia: https://www.opendemocracy.net/can-europe-make-it/hovsep-khurshudyan/why-armenians-are-successful-everywhere-except-armenia
This is Western psy-ops at its worst. The premise of both articles are based on lies and half-truths. The truth is that the CSTO (and we are primarily talking about Russia here) is under treaty to come to Armenia's aid and not Artsakh's, and even then only after Yerevan officially requests it. But I have no doubt that Moscow would also militarily intervene if Artsakh was seriously threatened. They have even hinted as such. Please note that the most recent Azeri incursion into Artsakh was not an attempt by Baku to "restore jurisdiction" over Stepanakert. What happened was not a full-scale war and Artsakh was never in serious danger. Azerbaijan is simply not large enough or militarily powerful enough to actually threaten Armenia or Artsakh. Yerevan has never felt the need to ask for military intervention by Russia. Moreover, by covering Armenia's western border with Turkey, Moscow provides Yerevan with the freedom to concentrate its limited resources on keeping Azerbaijan in check on Armenia's eastern borders. That Armenian officials are squandering the task of properly fortifying Armenia's border with Azerbaijan by graft and embezzlement of financial resources is all together another topic of discussion. Nevertheless, what happened on April 02, 2016 was a test or a warning but not a full scale war. The following is a very recent Armenian language article that talks about CSTO's actual responsibilities -
ՀԱՊԿ–ն կարձագանքի, եթե Հայաստանը դիմի: http://sputnik.co.am/armenia/20160402/2698538.html
People working at places like Stratfor and Armenia's Western activists always fail to ask: How did Artsakh, a tiny piece of territory that has no real economy to speak of, come to acquire so much weaponry in the first place? Is it because of the military assistance an economically depressed and cash broke Armenia provides, or is it a result of cheep (often free) Russian arms supplies to Armenia slowly trickling down to Artsakh? A lot of the weaponry that Russia has provided Armenia throughout the years has gone to Artsakh, with Moscow's knowledge. That's a fact. Also, why can't the people at Stratfor and Armenia's Western activists just say, Russia is covering Armenia's western border with Turkey so that Yerevan can concentrate all its resources on a more manageable threat coming from Azerbaijan?
Major powers see the world on a grander scale
It was inevitable that Western intelligence services and their lackeys throughout Armenian society would waste no time in taking a very complex matters like what's going on in Artsakh and grossly twist it to fit their narrative. And that narrative, a poisonous cocktail, is then fed to the sheeple. Therefore: Russian arms sales to Baku does not mean Russia is abandoning Armenia (Moscow would sooner occupy Armenia than abandon it). Russia is not taking sides against Armenia. Had Russia taken sides against Armenia, we would not have an Armenia today. Remember that we are talking about a tiny, impoverished and blockaded nation that would not be able to defend itself against any of its predatory neighbors had it not been for the military and economic support it receives from Russia. The same actually applies to Artsakh. Had Russia actually been against Artsakh being under Armenian control, the situation there would have been a whole lot different today. This is the bottom line: Oil rich Baku has the money to purchase whatever it wants from whoever it wants. Armenia does not have that luxury. Russia has been the only reason why an impoverished Armenia has been able to maintain military parity with an oil rich Azerbaijan. Russia is the only reason keeping Turks on their side of the border, thereby allowing us Armenians to concentrate our limited resources on the Azeri threat. Minister Dmitry Medvedev's comments recently were revealing, but were Armenians listening? -
"If we imagine for a minute that Russia has given up this role (of arms seller), we well understand that this place will not stay vacant... They will buy weapons in other countries, and the degree of their deadliness won't change in any way... But at the same time, this could destroy the existing balance of forces (in the region)"
The Russian Prime Minister basically said: If Moscow broke its ties with Baku, then Western, Israeli, Turkish and Islamist interests will inevitably fill the void; the region will not be less militarized; and Armenia will not be able to maintain its military parity with a wealthy Azerbaijan. In other words, PM Medvedev is saying Moscow would lose control of the situation in the region if it stopped dealing with Baku.
From an emotional perspective, I don't like the thought of our allies in Moscow selling weapons to our enemy. From a political perspective, however, I fully agree with the comments made by the Russian prime minister. I think the situation with Baku could be much worst had Russia not been in the picture in Azerbaijan. In my opinion, Moscow is executing a very sophisticated political approach to the very complex dispute in question. And Western-activists, like the filthy smut-peddlers that they are, are exploiting Moscow's political predicament and vulnerability to incite Russophobia inside Armenia.
None of what I'm saying here is rocket science. People with normally functioning brains should be able to understand all this. Apparently, not us Armenians. It's simply amazing for me to see just how politically illiterate we as a people are. At the end of the day, and despite its dealing with our enemies, Russia remains Armenia's one and only ally and Russia remains the only nation on earth that would militarily intervene to save Armenia from being overrun by Turks and/or Islamists. Armenians therefore need to stop seeing the world in black and white terms; Armenians need to stop believing what Western propagandists say; Armenians need to stop being maximalistic in their desires; Armenians need to more accurately assess their capabilities; Armenians need to better understand the game of politics and how its played; Armenians need to control their emotions; and Armenians need to stop thinking only in the short-term and start developing some foresight.
Moscow is neither an angel or a demon. Moscow is a superpower. And all superpowers tend to formulate geostrategy and implement them cautiously, systematically and professionally. There is no room for emotions or knee-jerk reactions in politics.
We vividly saw Moscow's pragmatic restraint and strategic foresight in the wake of the downing of the Russian military plane over Syria. A Russian aircraft was ambushed and shot-down and a Russian pilot was murdered. The typical human reaction would have been to immediately repay in kind. But that is not how it works in politics. We saw Moscow execute a highly sophisticated statecraft in Ukraine, where the ethnic Russian community there was encouraged by Moscow to rise up against Kiev. But we also saw that Russia did not directly intervene to liberate Ukraine's rebellious Russians due to political considerations. Moscow's primary intent was to ruin Kiev's EU/NATO plans and distract Ukraine's attention from the Crimea, and Novorossiyans were doing just that. Moreover, while the Western-backed military junta in Kiev was waging war against Novorossiyans, Moscow was supporting the ethnic Russians there while at the same time continuing certain trade deals with Kiev. Was Moscow backstabbing Novorossiyans? Of course not. Has Moscow abandoned Novorossiyans? Of course not. Simply put: The liberation of Novorossiya does not fit Moscow's geopolitical calculus, at least for now. Incidentally, I didn't see Novorossiyans, who thus far have gotten the short end of the stick, organizing street protests and angrily accusing Moscow of backstabbing them. Are Slavs more politically aware? Perhaps. We more recently saw Moscow doing similar things in Syria. Russia intervened to save the Alawite community there from an inevitable genocide. But as we have seen since, Russia's military intervention in Syria did not mean Moscow will agree to every single demand made by the Assad government. Do Syria's Alawite community have political maturity? We'll have to wait and see. That said, the following article that just appeared in the New York Times shows the kind of flawless statecraft Moscow is executing -
Russian Forces Remain Heavily Involved in Syria, Despite Appearances: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/16/world/europe/russian-forces-remain-heavily-involved-in-syria-despite-appearances.html?ref=world&_r=0
Moscow behavior in places like Ukraine, Syria and Armenia, is not stupid, duplicitous or backstabbing. Moscow behavior is superpower behavior. When a major nation makes a simple error, it can cause a world war. This is why high level policymakers in major nations are always calculating and they are always cautious when it comes to foreign policy, with the notable exception of Neocons in the US. This calculus, caution and pragmatism is the reason why Russia has not invaded eastern Ukraine; the reason why it has not hit back at Turkey; and it is also the reason why Moscow is doing its best to maintain ties with Baku. Russia is a nation that borders Europe, the Caucasus, central Asia, east Asia and all of the Arctic. Russia is a massive nuclear power. Russian officials, like their American counterparts, tend to see things on a grander scale. Moscow has to have a grand view of the world. Russians officials have centuries of diplomatic expertise and have cultivated impeccable foresight when it comes to geostrategy. Russians have also suffered calamitous wars all too often. Therefore, the execution of Russian politics is by nature cautious, calculating, systematic and meticulous. In short: Russia is a superpower. Moscow therefore thinks as a superpower. And the following are the thoughts of Russian politician, activist and writer, Nikolai Starikov -
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict explained by Nikolai Starikov: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ANqaJzxX3k
Moscow will look at a matter like Artskah, Syria or even Novorossiya not from an emotional, cultural or historical perspective as we Armenians love to do, but from a legal, political and geostrategic perspective as all major powers prefer to do.
Baku should remain within the Russian orbit
When Armenians stop approaching politics from an emotional or personal perspective they will begin to better understand the political world and that in turn will help them better maneuver politically. In other words: Armenian need to see the bigger, geostrategic picture. And in the bigger, geostrategic picture, a Baku that is within the Russian orbit is less of a threat to Armenia than a Baku that is under the total influence of Ankara and Western powers. I understand this is not ideal. Unfortunately, Armenia once again finds itself facing two choices: One is a bad choice and the other one is a worst choice. That said, we must recognize that Russians are right now operating in full realpolitik mode. For Moscow, everything right now is pure calculus. Moscow knows that there is an active agenda by the Anglo-American-Jewish alliance and their Turkic/Islamic friends to surround and isolate Russia. Moscow knows that the entire Eurasian continent is one bad incident away from a third world war. Moscow is therefore doing its best to manage the very complex, very volatile situation we currently have in the world, and what I see many of us Armenians doing is acting like typical mountain dwellers.
Once more I implore you to think: If Russia was to stop selling arms to Baku, it would essentially be a symbolic measure because Baku has the money to purchase modern arms from elsewhere. Baku has already purchases billions of dollars of arms from countries other than Russia. If Moscow stopped selling arms to Baku, all of the money Baku has allocated for arms purchases will thereafter go to Turkey, Israel, Ukraine, Pakistan, China and Western powers, and these powers will come to have more leverage inside Azerbaijan. Will that be better for the region? Will that be better for Armenia and Artsakh? Moscow knows that pan-Turkism and Islamic extremism have been Western power tools for a long time. Moscow knows that Western powers have used and continue using pan-Turkism and Islamic extremism against the Russian nation. Russian official are doing their best to stay in the game in Azerbaijan essentially because they realizes that if they breaks their close relationship with Baku, Azerbaijan is highly susceptible to turning into a center of pan-Turkic and Islamic activities. Yes, we all know that American, British and Israeli interests already exist in Baku. We also know that Grey Wolves and ISIS also operates inside Azerbaijan. But the aforementioned are not espoused officially and they are not yet mainstream.
Without Russia in the picture in Baku, Azerbaijan has the strong potential to become hotbed of pan-Turkism and Islamic extremism. Azeri officials in fact use these factors in Azerbaijan as a threat to make Russians remain closely engaged with Baku.
So, as you can see, Azeri officials are not as stupid as we would like to think they are. The stupid ones are in fact us. Look at it this way: Armenians that call on Russia to stop dealing with Baku are essentially calling on Russians to turn Azerbaijan into an even worst threat for Armenia and Artsakh. Those of us that want Moscow to break ties with Baku are actually asking Moscow to sowing the seeds of a major war in the region. Yes, Russia needs to be ready for a war. But at the same time, Russia must also do everything in its power to avoid one. The same applies to Armenia. Turkic peoples, Islamic peoples can afford wars, we Armenians can't. It is very worrying for me that a lot of this rationale is escaping most of our people today. The better we Armenians understand all this, the better will be be able to navigate the perils of superpower politics and the coming storm.
I reiterate: Russia is Armenia's one and only ally. Russia is not abandoning Armenia (or even Artsakh). If there are problems or flaws in Moscow geostrategic vision towards Armenia or Artsakh, Armenians need to stop throwing temper-tantrums like little emotional children and figure out ways to work with their Russian counterparts to fix the problems. Our leaders cannot do what I just suggested by running off to Western capitols and complain about Moscow every time Moscow says or does something that Armenians don't happen to like. In other words, we as a people yet have to mature politically.
Sadly, talking to Armenians about geopolitical nuances is like talking to a five year old child about the meaning of life. If our overly emotional and always politically naive sheeple fall for the highly sophisticated manipulations and machinations of Western powers and ruin Armenia's relations with Russia as a result, Armenia will once again be erased from the world map. Our idiots in Yerevan better realize this because we have made the same mistake all too often. Despite what patriotic Armenians want to believe, Russia's hand over Armenia is the only thing keeping Armenia in existence today. This may be difficult for "proud" Armenian (especially in the Diaspora) to accept but this is reality. If Western powers manage to convince our people that Russia's hand is a hand that is not needed or worst, a hand that is hurting Armenia, Armenia will be dangerously exposed in a very dangerous environment. We as a people need to understand that we are in the early stages of a world war. We as a people need to understand that Western powers look at Turks and Islamists as geostratetgic assets. We as a people need to understand that the defeat of Russia is one of the ultimate goals of the Anglo-American-Jewish world order in this war. Armenians better wake up and realize that if Russia is defeated, Armenia will face another genocide regardless of whether or not Armenia has good relations with the West - and all the big talking Armenian Diaspora will be able to do is hold demonstrations in Western capitols in support of Armenia.
Once more: Armenia is not even on the list of Western priorities. Western powers will never come to Armenia's aid under any circumstances. At best, the West will take in a number of Armenian refugees and some Western officials will make some emotional speeches in favor of Armenians. That's it. The ONLY nation on earth that would be adversely impacted by Armenia's demise is Russia. The ONLY nation on earth, besides Armenians, that would be willing to spill blood for Armenia is Russians.
Artsakh proved its mettle in combat, its our diplomats' turn
The Turkish/Western defeat in Syria on one hand, the worsening socioeconomic situation in Azerbaijan on an other hand and the Anglo-American-Jewish bloodlust for Russian blood on yet another hand, something bad was bound to happen - either in Novorossiya or in Nagorno Karabakh. Unfortunately, it was our turn this time. It seems Baku was seeking to quickly occupy some Armenian held territory and inflict serious losses on Armenians as a stern message to Yerevan that is was now serious about resolving this festering matter. I suspect Baku did not risk a full scale invasion of Artsakh and made sure to keep things quite along Armenia's border because it feared Russian retaliation. Nevertheless, whatever it was that they had wanted to do, it didn't fully work as hoped. Armenians instinctively rallied around the national flag, Armenian troops held firm and the advancing Azeris were thrown back without much difficulty.
This mini war may have been a test for Armenia and Russia. They may have wanted to see Armenia's military performance and Yerevan's political resolve and Russia's reaction. If so, and if viewed strictly from a political perspective, I believe both passed the test. Russia did not have to militarily react essentially because Armenian forces in Artsakh performed well on the battlefield and Armenia was never under any threat. All Moscow therefore felt was needed was condemnation of Baku's actions, a symbolic troop buildup on the border with Azerbaijan, and it waited for the right time - when Armenian troops had liberated lands (with one exception) that had been initially lost in the fighting - to step in and call a ceasefire. Nevertheless, Armenian troops in Artsakh performed their tasks very well even in face of lethal, Israeli made weapons that were introduced in combat for the first time. In fact, Armenian troops performs so well that military units stationed in Armenia didn't even need to get involved in the fighting. The thousands of enthusiastic men and women that poured into Artsakh from Armenia were all volunteers and veterans of the previous war. Even in Artsakh, most of the available combat units seemed to have been held back in reserve. Therefore, a relatively small number of Armenian troops were able to repulse a major military incursion into Artsakh and inflicted heavy losses on them. Artsakh proved its mettle in combat and the world noticed. The following powerful words was written by a Russian lawyer -
“Artsakh is becoming not only a strong military power but also a completely unexpected ideological challenge for the post-modern world order, in which a nation is not a nation and a state is not a state, where the ideal man in peaceful times is a Consumer and in harsh times is the one who flees – the Refugee. It is exactly for this reason that the world is in a shock and can’t believe its eyes when watching how men with smiles on their faces go to the front to fight for their brothers, for their land and for that boy who was killed in a school yard by some asshole artilleryman... If the Karabakh Armenians had fled, they too would have probably been given a couple of German villages to live in, their feet too would have been washed in St. Peter’s square in Rome, their crying men would have been shown on CNN and BBC too. But they didn’t run! To the contrary – an Armenian millionaire is taking his son out of comfortable Oxford and sending him to the front, and not to some elite unit but to the very frontline, under Russian “Солнцепек”s; because for him it is more important to have a son who is a real man rather than a son who is a leading economist. I am very worried for Artsakh. I am very envious of Artsakh, where in that mountainous air is so thickly concentrated with the meaning of life that you can eat it with a spoon”
Artsakh has once again made us proud. Artsakh continues to be the place where Armenians worldwide draw a red line. From a tactical military perspective, however, it must also be said that this battle revealed some technical and tactical flaws. Perhaps more about that in a future blog commentary. That said, I think this short but violent war was a timely wake up call for all Armenians. While I am deeply saddened for the lives we lost on the battlefield, I think this was a very necessary battle to prove our resolve, as well as a battle to remind us Armenians of who the real enemy is. Unfortunately, we Armenians are one of those troublesome people that have to be reminded from time-to-time that the enemy is the Turk and not the Armenian government.