par far wrote:PapaDragon wrote:
Or shorter version: Armenian Military was sitting on it's ass and did not fire a single bullet in Azeri direction. You can't expect others to fight your war without being willing to fight yourself.
Nagorny Karabakh Conflict: 3:1 in Azerbaijan's Favor
Baku managed to drive a wedge between Armenia and Russia
http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/nagorny-karabakh-conflict-31-azerbaijan/ri13890Originally appeared at Vzglyad – Russian online magazine. Translated by Julia Rakhmetova and Rhod Mackenzie
The author is a well-known political analyst and expert on the Caucasus
Another flare-up of the conflict in the Nagorny Karabakh is over. But this one differed radically from the previous ones. During both non-military and military confrontations, the initiative generally belonged to Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia, and they managed to maintain the status quo: this time it’s Azerbaijan that scores.
First of all, it’s obvious that the main goal in restarting the conflict wasn’t to start a war as such but to update it and attract international attention, showing that the Karabakh conflict wasn’t over. And given the international resonance the flare-up received, Baku scored impressively.
Secondly, the power demonstrated by the Azeri army in this short conflict that was not intended to become a full-scale war, was a surprise to everyone, and the results differ drastically from what we’ve seen before.
Recently during what was probably the most active post-war phase of the conflict, in summer 2014, the Azeri army faced the first defense line of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, but now its troops quickly broke through the two defense lines after taking seven strong points and settlements that Armenians had held for twenty years.
We can’t say the Azeris dominated on the battlefield, losing many tanks, but in general the action was a surprise. The Karabakh had seemed an unassailable fortress, a perfect engineering feat, but we now can’t be sure about that anymore.
Finally, Baku succeeded in driving a wedge between Armenia on the one hand, and Russia and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) on the other. Remember that despite the popular myth that Armenia can defend itself in Nagorny Karabakh, the status quo doctrine for Armenia was always based on the neutralization of Azerbaijan with the help of Moscow and the CSTO freely arming Armenia, while refusing to deliver arms to it and exerting diplomatic and other pressure on Baku, transferring the Karabakh conflict to Armenia’s territory to force both Russia and the CSTO to get involved.
Today the situation shows that none of that worked: the blockade of arms deliveries to Baku failed completely, neither Russia, nor anyone else opted for Armenia, at best pursuing a policy of equidistance.
This resulted in semi-panic and semi-hysterics in the Armenian media, cursing President Putin and claiming Russia had betrayed Armenia before, and it could join the US.
The one considerable drawback for Baku is that much of the international community believes it started the conflict. However, under the current circumstances, that is not very important and for a series of reasons doesn’t imply any urgent threat.
The fact that Armenia is losing confidence in Moscow and CSTO’s ability to help it solve the Karabakh conflict, straining relations with its allies, benefits Azerbaijan, and this is a serious achievement.
The fact that the international community sees it as the aggressor is not crucial, making it a 3:1.
This is not good, Russia needs to do something, the US is doing everything to escalate this situation.
There is a general issue with the articles though.
Karabakh isn't recognized by Russia nor nearly anyone else besides Armenia and a few others. Russia is not obliged to help it, but it still brokered a peace deal between the two countries for now, so it did help. Second, Armenia may have sent people but these are, I am not entirely 100% sure on this, Armenian military but Karabakh army. Thirdly, Armenia wasn't attacked directly thus CSTO does not take into affect. Unless Armenia was stricken directly, then guarantee Russia would have intervened.
As for Armenia and the media campaign by US, I don't think it will work. As evident from the so called RI articles youtube video, there was less then 30 people present at that "demonstration". And to boot, the demonstration was in english.... Hmmm, I wonder why? Now The two Armenian's we have on this site seem to be very intelligent people and know quite a bit (The Armenian and Armenian), so I can assume that majority of the population is like that.
Anyway, head of CSTO and Armenia's president had a metting: https://z5h64q92x9.net/proxy_u/ru-en.ru/sputnikarmenia.ru/karabah/20160415/2989642.html
So I assume that they are probably drafting out ideas on CSTO's actions and what not. But Armenia knows they cannot side with US (at least I hope they do) cause it will affect directly Armenia in regards to Russia's counter actions with gas prices and what not, which will heavily affect Armenia's economy. Add to that, Turkey is Armenia's enemy and US ally as it is part of NATO. Something that Armenians know very well would drive a wedge from them. As well, Russia would then probably turn to Azerbaijan (as Russia has more to offer Azerbaijan than Turkey does) and I don't think Armenia would like that. But who knows!