Regular wrote:It seems situation have been defused so far. Reports about Azeri troops behind Armenian lines are here and there, but I think it got quiet. But it doesn't mean it can flare up again as that's how 888 War started too.
Azeris are being Azeris, fucking beheadings. I hate their guts, but I know that Russia won't slap good customer in their face.
Out of respect to resident Azeri, AtillaA, keep the Azeri generalizations to a minimum, keep it respectful. As far as the claims of beheadings go, they really haven't been confirmed yet...but let's play devils advocate, and lets say they did happen...you should know that's the classic calling card of the Grey Wolf 'stay-behind'
network financed by Turkish intelligence, just take a look at the Turkish military operation in Cizre, a multitude of bodies were found beheaded after the operation concluded. I suspect that Turkish military intelligence acting as patrons of the Grey Wolves, and helped them penetrate/infiltrate Azeri ranks, so now there's swathes of Azeri officers who are loyal to Erdogan and not to Aliyev.
Let's ask Qui Bono? Who benefits? Who wants this? Neither Azerbaijan nor Armenia's leaders want this, I doubt any of the CSTO wants this, and it's extremely unlikely that the CSTO will exacerbate the situation. I doubt China, Iran or the SCO as a whole wants this, so who's left who could be the instigator in this? Naturally through the process of elimination the only party left is Turkey.
Despite overblown and grandiose claims of Turkish-Azeri allegiance/alliance, behind closed doors their leaders hate each others guts. Aliyev hasn't forgotten that Turkish military intelligence in 1995 tried to assassinate/overthrow his father, and Erdogan hates any country in the near-east that's controlled by secularist's and Shia's, who keep their doors open for Moscow to engage in open-dialogue *cough, Syria, cough*.
Instability in Azerbaijan makes perfect sense for neo-Ottoman Erdogan for these very reasons: 1.) It causes in-fighting (divide and conquer) between near-east Christians and Shia's, who've been figting Erdogan's puppets, ISIS/JAN. If it gets bad enough you may see it spread/exported in to Iran (which has both those demographics). 2.) Azerbaijan weakened by civil war means it'll be much easier to overthrow Aliyev with a Pro-Turkish military coup...we've seen this script before with Ayaz Mutallibov. 3.) A Turkish puppet govt. in Baku, means Azerbaijan will be annexed along with it's hydrocarbons, we've seen it time and time again, neo-Ottomans such as Erdogan like de facto annexing territories and stealing those territories hydrocarbons for his private accounts.