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    Probability of Russian Navy missiles to hit or destroy an AEGIS equipped target?

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    Probability of the Oynx, Kalibr, Brahmos and similar missiles hitting a modern, advanced "western" ship.

    [ 7 ]
    50% [50%] 
    [ 5 ]
    36% [36%] 
    [ 1 ]
    7% [7%] 
    [ 0 ]
    0% [0%] 
    [ 1 ]
    7% [7%] 

    Total Votes: 14

    Mike E
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    Probability of Russian Navy missiles to hit or destroy an AEGIS equipped target?

    Post  Mike E on Thu Jun 19, 2014 10:42 pm

    I noticed there was no major discussion/poll like this out there, so here we go! The RIM-116 Rolling Airframe Missile definitely seems like a threat to Russian missiles, so with this system included, what do you think the possibility of a successful hit is? I would like to note that this includes all current/near-future ships, missiles, CIWS etc. Keep in mind the RAM is only on a few US ships, but on almost every German warship.

    I know Navy officials have stated that the new Kalibr (Klub) equipped with the "supersonic warhead" is their biggest concern in the missile department, but unfortunately I can not find that article.

    Also, it would be cool be if this topic could also be on developments of the naval Pantsir system, and CIWS in general.

    Thanks, in advance.

    - Mike E.

    Morpheus Eberhardt
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    Re: Probability of Russian Navy missiles to hit or destroy an AEGIS equipped target?

    Post  Morpheus Eberhardt on Thu Jun 19, 2014 11:13 pm

    This is a misleading topic.

    The topic and participation in its discussions may create the illusion in some readers that there is a real possibility that, let's say, Aegis can shoot down an Oniks.

    Technically, the probability of Aegis shooting down an Oniks is, literally, less that shooting the Oniks down by someone throwing a piece of rock at the missile.


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    Re: Probability of Russian Navy missiles to hit or destroy an AEGIS equipped target?

    Post  Mike E on Thu Jun 19, 2014 11:21 pm

    Doesn't mean it absolutely can't. The Ticonderogas only have two Phalanx systems, as do some Burkes, which means they stand almost no chance against the Oniks.

    Don't forget this topic is meant to include all AEGIS ships and ships with software like AEGIS. Including the Type 45 etc.

    That being said, the RAM seems like a "decent" system.

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    Re: Probability of Russian Navy missiles to hit or destroy an AEGIS equipped target?

    Post  Hannibal Barca on Thu Jun 19, 2014 11:36 pm

    Morpheus Eberhardt wrote:This is a misleading topic.

    The topic and participation in its discussions may create the illusion in some readers that there is a real possibility that, let's say, Aegis can shoot down an Oniks.

    Technically, the probability of Aegis shooting down an Oniks is, literally, less that shooting the Oniks down by someone throwing a piece of rock at the missile.


    Precisely ! But still I am the one voted 60-80% because there is a substantial chance of malfunction or misfire. Now if we talk about 4-5 simultaneous launches....

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    Re: Probability of Russian Navy missiles to hit or destroy an AEGIS equipped target?

    Post  Mike E on Thu Jun 19, 2014 11:37 pm

    Then they would stand no chance, almost!

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    Re: Probability of Russian Navy missiles to hit or destroy an AEGIS equipped target?

    Post  GarryB on Fri Jun 20, 2014 10:55 am

    RAM is a nice looking missile... the Russians will have a similar missile in service in a few years time based on the 9M100 AAM/Morfei SAM.

    The question really is... is RAM accurate enough to get the sort of hit that will bring down an Onyx missile.

    Patriot showed in the Gulf War that hitting the target alone is simply not enough... a very high speed ballistic target with titanium armour might be too difficult for the Sea RAM to deal with.


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    Re: Probability of Russian Navy missiles to hit or destroy an AEGIS equipped target?

    Post  magnumcromagnon on Fri Jun 20, 2014 12:07 pm

    GarryB wrote:RAM is a nice looking missile... the Russians will have a similar missile in service in a few years time based on the 9M100 AAM/Morfei SAM.

    The question really is... is RAM accurate enough to get the sort of hit that will bring down an Onyx missile.

    Patriot showed in the Gulf War that hitting the target alone is simply not enough... a very high speed ballistic target with titanium armour might be too difficult for the Sea RAM to deal with.

    And Onyx's kinetic energy alone could probably sink most smaller ships.

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    Re: Probability of Russian Navy missiles to hit or destroy an AEGIS equipped target?

    Post  Mike E on Sat Jun 21, 2014 12:10 am

    Very true, probably 4-5 RAMs would need to be fired to have a chance. They also cost around $450,000, so they are somewhat of a waste. (Plus, they are barely even on more than a couple US ships. The US is relying on the old Phalanx system instead.)

    GarryB, I have a question for you (a couple, to be exact). 

    Do you have any more information on the 2500km range Kalibr (Klub)? I cannot seem to find information on it anywhere! 

    This question is on the same missile, does it have a "supersonic warhead" like the other Klub missiles?



    I think the biggest "threat" to AShMs is the RIM-162 ESSM. Since it hasn't been tested against Russian AShMs, its performance is unknown. Isn't it funny that the Zumwalt class lacks even a single CIWS? It is almost like they want it to be destroyed!

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    Re: Probability of Russian Navy missiles to hit or destroy an AEGIS equipped target?

    Post  GarryB on Sat Jun 21, 2014 11:39 am

    Do you have any more information on the 2500km range Kalibr (Klub)? I cannot seem to find information on it anywhere!

    The information you read about is all about Klub and therefore about export products.

    Kalibr is not for export.

    Very simply the Soviet Navy developed a 2,500km range cruise missile that NATO called Sampson and gave the ASCC code of SS-N-21 Granat (Not to be confused with the 7 ton Granit of the Kirov/Oscar/Kuznetsov vessels).

    250m CEP of Granat meant it was a nuke only.

    Enter new technology and new terminal guidance and navigation and you end up with Kh-101 and Kh-102 terminal seeker and long range guidance fitted to the old Granit and you get Klub.

    In the export family you have the subsonic all the way anti ship or land attack model with a range of about 290-300km as per international export restrictions. There is also the version with the pointy nose that flys 250km to the target at subsonic but launches a rocket powered payload the last 50-80km to penetrate the last line of defences of a ship.

    The Russian versions are not limited by export restrictions so their anti ship subsonic all the way missile could easily have the 2,500km range of Granat, while their subsonic land attack missile is called Kalibr and also has a 2,500km range and a very small CEP. the main question regards the high speed missile... my personal opinion is that the subsonic section has a range of 1,000 to 1,500km with the supersonic section reaching the same 50-80km at very low altitude.

    Russian domestic models are not revealed publicly and so information is occasionally slipped but confirmation is difficult.

    For a while Naval officials were talking about a 5,000km range cruise missile... the Kh-101 and Kh-102 air launched missiles used by the Russian air force have this range so an upgraded ship and sub launched model is not impossible.

    Plus, they are barely even on more than a couple US ships. The US is relying on the old Phalanx system instead.)

    The Soviets/Russians have always taken anti ship missiles more seriously than the US or Brits... their larger ships have 8 or more gatlings and the introduction of Kashtan was largely to defend against supersonic anti ship missiles.


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    Re: Probability of Russian Navy missiles to hit or destroy an AEGIS equipped target?

    Post  Mike E on Sat Jun 21, 2014 9:25 pm

    Thanks for all the info, that is what I expected.

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