The Situation in the Ukraine. #4

Indoctrination for............Democracy of course:




U.S. Aid will have the "correct line" of coverage of May 25th elections, even if Right Sector intimidates voters:

Calling Carl Bildt pond scum would be an insult to the dignity of pond scum:

flamming_python wrote:

So we have
Donbass militia,
Crimeans,
Ossetians,
Chechens,
Russians who fought in Chechnya,
Russians who thought in Afghanistan,
Probably some other Russians (incl. Cossacks).

Wouldn't be a surprise if the Transdniestrians tag along.
This will be like a rebel superbowl.

Unfortunately for now we don't have any. And they need them badly. My vote for the Ossetians, who defended Tskhinvali successfully.
However, we must maintain cool blood because the fascists are progressing slowly if not nothing. But for me is not easy at all. And that fucking 25th of May...

I spoke with a knowledgeable guy and I think I have good news. NATO seems to be certain that a Russian intervention will follow "short".

magnumcromagnon wrote:Calling Carl Bildt pond scum would be an insult to the dignity of pond scum:

He's banned to enter Russia, right?

Look at Ukrainian troops https://vk.com/video97003702_168579671
Rebels have no chance, not in numbers, not in weapons. They seem to abstain from fighting guerilla war. And Ukrainians are throwing everything they have against them. 
Even partisan methods won't help much as numbers are so uneven and they are surrounded. 
Rebels will be martyred in a matter of days. A massive respect to them dying as real soldiers. 
Putin is in a corner. He has to save his face. He will lose support home if he leaves it like that.

Look at Ukrainian troops https://vk.com/video97003702_168579671
Rebels have no chance, not in numbers, not in weapons. They seem to abstain from fighting guerilla war. And Ukrainians are throwing everything they have against them.
Even partisan methods won't help much as numbers are so uneven and they are surrounded.
Rebels will be martyred in a matter of days. A massive respect to them dying as real soldiers.
Putin is in a corner. He has to save his face. He will lose support home if he leaves it like that.  

No match for Russia . Not even for a match for Syria army. In the video there was about 5-10 tanks , about 20 light armored vehicles and about 12 self propelled artillery.  about 100 strong special forces armed with 10km  Kornets-D ,sniper rifles could ambush that group and finish it in couple of hours. Smerch Missiles artillery with 90km range also will have a field day with them.  If Ukraine sends all their tanks to the east ,you will see Kornets attacks like there is no tomorrow. Artillery is the one that will cause more trouble why they need to fight near civilians zones..

take a look at all the things Kornets-D can defeat with up to 10km range...not bad at all.   



and with up to 1300mm armor penetration after Era will cut like butter any Modern Tank including from NATO.  
This Multi purpose Weapon can keep Ukraine tanks,helicopters and infantry away of any pro federation zone..still artillery can
be a pain for them. IF Russia wants it can supply the Federation forces with those weapons.

Honestly all those Ossetian, Chechen, Crimean, Russian veteran, Cossack, etc... battalions would be enough to deal with that rabble of forces that the Ukraine has managed to assemble against Donetsk. Actually the Ukrainian forces doing the fighting; the Omega Spetsnaz and so on - look well trained and equipped enough. As for the Airborne and some others, again they look capable, but their morale and loyalty is shaky; at least some of the ones that were taken prisoner 3 weeks ago when the BMDs were swipped - have gone onto the rebels side; one of them - a lieutenant, is commanding a rebel BMD right now.
The rest of the Ukrainian forces are auxillaries; dressed-up Pravyj Sektor, Nats Guard, and mobilised loyal police and road police forces.
They are all supported by some armour, tactical bombers, helicopter aviation and artillery but nothing substantial

The volunteers battallion can probably wipe out these formations; the Donbass rebels have already done a lot of the work, despite their limited numbers and resources; 4-5 helicopters shot down or disabled, +6 BMDs and variants captured and another couple knocked out, 3 Ukr Spetsnaz captured and at least 2 killed (that was a month ago, probably more of them have died in the latest operations), about a dozen Pravyj Sektor guys killed or captured, 1-2 dozen Ukrainian soldiers of various designations killed and another 2-3 dozen wounded, over 60 airborne troops disarmed and a few squads of Nats Guard troops disarmed too.
Ammo and equipment supplies have been raided, supply trucks captured, SBU buildings, police stations, military commissions buildings taken over and their armouries seized, staff disarmed or collaborating with the rebels.

The trouble with the volunteers, is that if they start coming from any other place than the Crimea perhaps - is that their presence is actually going to rally the demoralized Ukrainian forces around their leadership, no matter how many of them don't want to carry out orders or view their government as illegitimate.
Right now, Berkut basically all over the country are refusing Kiev's orders to deploy to the Donetsk region, in many cases to carry out its orders in their home territories too. Most Ukrainian Alpha Spetsnaz teams are still formally loyal, but are refusing to deploy too, or otherwise sabotaging their orders. Only the Omega Spetsnaz teams can be relied upon by Kiev
The Ukrainian 25th airborne brigade as we saw in Kramatorsk 3 weeks back; a convoy of them basically allowed themselves to be captured - with a number even joining the rebels, while a couple of platoons agreed to simply disarm themselves and turn back. In the latest episode, a squad of what looked to be airborne - agreed to fire off all their ammo into the air when confronted by locals. Other airborne squads and companies, etc... have followed their orders, determined to complete their mission. The least you can say about them - is that their loyalty is a mixed back and that they are unreliable for Kiev.
The Nats Guard is badly trained and pretty useless for all but the most basic tasks such as a holding a cordon/perimeter, or manning a checkpoint. They are also badly demoralised, squads have surrendered after firefights and agreed to disarm, another squad when surrounded by villagers - agreed to disarm.
Pravyj Sektor are of course vicious and determined, but they don't constitute a huge threat, their arsenal is limited.
Regular police all over Donetsk and Lugansk are either collaborating with the rebels or otherwise recognize their authority and don't mess with them, Ukraine can mostly only rely on police brought in from other regions.

So as you can see, the Ukrainian forces are in huge disarray. But is it worth risking them rallying to the cause and orders of Kiev (and I don't know if they will or won't, but it is a risk), for the pay-off or reinforcing the rebels with several hundred more trained fighters and weapons, supplies?
Kiev will finally get what its been waiting for - the Russian presence, using it, it can call reinforcements to arms, armour brigades, etc... that until now have been sitting idle, and formations that until now have been sabotaging its orders or outright refusing them. And of course the US & co. will get their direct evidence of Russian intervention too, and use it to justify whatever.

Bottom line, if Russia intervenes - then it should do so decisively, or not at all. There are no half-measures. A half-measure will risk Kiev uniting the rest of the Ukraine behind it and crushing the limited forces that Russia decides to send w/o further support.

In more detailed news about what have been reported.. Aljazeera media ..owned by Qatar.. made a report
telling the truth in Ukraine    and is quite good.. Shows a picture of the 21 year old girl killed by the Ukrainian army.
And give a summary of the combats on monday..

I'm not saying Ukrainian army is uber alles. Their tactics and punitive operation are flawed. 
The point is rebels in Sloviansk are in big disadvantage. We can talk about how Russia would wipe out them in a seconds, but reality is people in Slovyansk are standing alone. They don't have enough bodies or even heavy equipment like ATGMs which is a MUST in countering armour. Every living soul lost is a severe blow to them. If it wasn't for their BMDs they captured even those 5 guys would be gobe. It looks like Babay didn't make it. May he RIP.

Regular wrote:It looks like Babay didn't make it. May he RIP.

Really? That's sad. Where did you hear it from?

Regular wrote:I'm not saying Ukrainian army is uber alles. Their tactics and punitive operation are flawed. 
The point is rebels in Sloviansk are in big disadvantage. We can talk about how Russia would wipe out them in a seconds, but reality is people in Slovyansk are standing alone. They don't have enough bodies or even heavy equipment like ATGMs which is a MUST in countering armour. Every living soul lost is a severe blow to them. If it wasn't for their BMDs they captured even those 5 guys would be gobe. It looks like Babay didn't make it. May he RIP.

Can someone tell me who Babay is.

I think you are wrong Regular... if Russia sends in troops or arms the rebels they are basically proving the west right which justifies extreme measures by the illegal ukrainian government.

Ukrainian coup members acting as the Ukrainian government killing unarmed civilians is clearly wrong to anyone.

Compare it to Libya... western claims that the Libyan forces were fighting unarmed civilians was used to justify western support... yet the video footage shown had unarmed Libyan civilians in camo gear with light vehicles mounting 14.5mm HMGs and rocket pods.

Arming the Ukrainian anti nazi forces would justify the use of military force against them and make a civil war much more likely...

Of course the west will never accept elections or referendum results that don't suit it so perhaps that is the only way out of this... the point is that Putin can't decide this from Moscow... the Ukrainians need to decide this for themselves.

Perhaps UN peacekeepers... but none from Europe...

Apparently Cossacks arriving at Antratsit on 05/05/2014

flamming_python wrote:The trouble with the volunteers, is that if they start coming from any other place than the Crimea perhaps - is that their presence is actually going to rally the demoralized Ukrainian forces around their leadership, no matter how many of them don't want to carry out orders or view their government as illegitimate.
...

So as you can see, the Ukrainian forces are in huge disarray. But is it worth risking them rallying to the cause and orders of Kiev (and I don't know if they will or won't, but it is a risk), for the pay-off or reinforcing the rebels with several hundred more trained fighters and weapons, supplies?

That's a good observation, and that's why I think Russia should pull a KGB style stunt there and 'help some elements disappear'.
Once the CIA/FBI advisors and the RightSector ultras start disappearing en masse, things will start slowing down. And it gives Russia 'Plausible deniability'.
What's the US gonna say: they're killing our spies there? Not a chance!

For the current situation, the options are either that - or they go all in, and start massive bomb runs on selected targets deep in Ukraine.
Use the Sukhois to bring down the government in Kiev...but that's not the preferable one if you ask me.

GarryB wrote:Perhaps UN peacekeepers... but none from Europe...

I actually beg to differ on that Gary.

Why not UN forces from here in the Balkans? Everyone here is considered a puppet to either NATO or the EU, or both.
If forces from the Balkans are used in a UN mission, they'd be considered NATO assets, but because of political pressure back home they'd HAVE TO defend the proRussians. And here's why I think it would work: it's been empirically proven! During 2004 when Kosovo was occupied by NATO, and the Albanians there started burning Orthodox Churches and killing monks, there was a Greek contingent that was guarding the monastery of Sokolica in western Kosovo. I've spoken to some of the monks from Kosovo back then, and they told me that it was the most defended monastery in whole of Kosovo. Other monasteries that were 'guarded' by the American soldiers were allowed to be torched, but the sisters in Sokolica were safe. The Greeks didn't fire warning shots, mind you - they FOUGHT against the Albanians who were attacking the Monastery inflicting MASSIVE losses in each attack.

So, imagine that we had a mixed Greek/Serbian/Slovenian/Macedonian/Montenegrin force there. Russia wouldn't object knowing full well that they WILL defend the proRussians. NATO couldn't object because they'd have to say to NATO/EU members (or aspiring members): we don't trust you. That would be a massive political blow to NATO and the EU. It's a win-win situation.

Besides, I'd really like to see our forces used for something truly humanitarian, rather than the effin' Iraq and Afghanistan fiasco. Oh, we also send our 'peace keepers' in Bosnia

Picture from the victory parade practice.

Does the St George's Ribbon indicate that the parade would be a combined parade to celebrate both victories?

Yeah, I forgot to mention: Today is the day we celebrate Saint George according to the eastern calendar.
Doesn't have to mean anything, but it would be symbolic if something happened today...
Just a thought.

The Cossacks are coming at the invitation of the authorities of Lugansk.




kuban Cossacks..>?

Morpheus Eberhardt wrote:Picture from the victory parade practice.

Does the St George's Ribbon indicate that the parade would be a combined parade to celebrate both victories?

Looks terrible.

This ribbon mania going on in Russia in recent years is so lame.
Red Star or bust.

Hannibal Barca wrote:I know Putin is the greatest Russian leader after Alexander Nevsky and Ivan the Terrible but no matter what the cynical approach might be I feel a pain watching the Eastern population to be mistreated like this.

Pfff. There were Tsars that actively worked to make life of serfs better.

Much more accomplished than anything Putin has done in my book.

Plus, most Russian leaders in past 150 years have been terrible, so it is not saying much.

This been posted yet?



English subbed

Morpheus Eberhardt wrote:

Regular wrote:I'm not saying Ukrainian army is uber alles. Their tactics and punitive operation are flawed. 
The point is rebels in Sloviansk are in big disadvantage. We can talk about how Russia would wipe out them in a seconds, but reality is people in Slovyansk are standing alone. They don't have enough bodies or even heavy equipment like ATGMs which is a MUST in countering armour. Every living soul lost is a severe blow to them. If it wasn't for their BMDs they captured even those 5 guys would be gobe. It looks like Babay didn't make it. May he RIP.

Can someone tell me who Babay is.

This guy   

flamming_python wrote:

Morpheus Eberhardt wrote:

Regular wrote:I'm not saying Ukrainian army is uber alles. Their tactics and punitive operation are flawed. 
The point is rebels in Sloviansk are in big disadvantage. We can talk about how Russia would wipe out them in a seconds, but reality is people in Slovyansk are standing alone. They don't have enough bodies or even heavy equipment like ATGMs which is a MUST in countering armour. Every living soul lost is a severe blow to them. If it wasn't for their BMDs they captured even those 5 guys would be gobe. It looks like Babay didn't make it. May he RIP.

Can someone tell me who Babay is.

This guy   

Is regular's story about him having been killed correct?

flamming_python wrote:

Morpheus Eberhardt wrote:

Regular wrote:I'm not saying Ukrainian army is uber alles. Their tactics and punitive operation are flawed. 
The point is rebels in Sloviansk are in big disadvantage. We can talk about how Russia would wipe out them in a seconds, but reality is people in Slovyansk are standing alone. They don't have enough bodies or even heavy equipment like ATGMs which is a MUST in countering armour. Every living soul lost is a severe blow to them. If it wasn't for their BMDs they captured even those 5 guys would be gobe. It looks like Babay didn't make it. May he RIP.

Can someone tell me who Babay is.

This guy   

watch sec 6th- 8th..

macedonian wrote:

GarryB wrote:Perhaps UN peacekeepers... but none from Europe...

I actually beg to differ on that Gary.

Why not UN forces from here in the Balkans? Everyone here is considered a puppet to either NATO or the EU, or both.
If forces from the Balkans are used in a UN mission, they'd be considered NATO assets, but because of political pressure back home they'd HAVE TO defend the proRussians. And here's why I think it would work: it's been empirically proven! During 2004 when Kosovo was occupied by NATO, and the Albanians there started burning Orthodox Churches and killing monks, there was a Greek contingent that was guarding the monastery of Sokolica in western Kosovo. I've spoken to some of the monks from Kosovo back then, and they told me that it was the most defended monastery in whole of Kosovo. Other monasteries that were 'guarded' by the American soldiers were allowed to be torched, but the sisters in Sokolica were safe. The Greeks didn't fire warning shots, mind you - they FOUGHT against the Albanians who were attacking the Monastery inflicting MASSIVE losses in each attack.

So, imagine that we had a mixed Greek/Serbian/Slovenian/Macedonian/Montenegrin force there. Russia wouldn't object knowing full well that they WILL defend the proRussians. NATO couldn't object because they'd have to say to NATO/EU members (or aspiring members): we don't trust you. That would be a massive political blow to NATO and the EU. It's a win-win situation.

Besides, I'd really like to see our forces used for something truly humanitarian, rather than the effin' Iraq and Afghanistan fiasco. Oh, we also send our 'peace keepers' in Bosnia

Wow, that's quite an interesting story  

However, I don't think that's going to work in Ukraine's case. "Friendly" contingents may just be relocated elsewhere. Remember, we're not talking about some brain-dead al-qaeda here, but nazis, and they should not be underestimated.




To regular:
"Look at Ukrainian troops https://vk.com/video97003702_168579671
Rebels have no chance, not in numbers, not in weapons. They seem to abstain from fighting guerilla war. And Ukrainians are throwing everything they have against them.
Even partisan methods won't help much as numbers are so uneven and they are surrounded.
Rebels will be martyred in a matter of days. A massive respect to them dying as real soldiers.
Putin is in a corner. He has to save his face. He will lose support home if he leaves it like that."

IMO, just because the rebels don't have a chance to push back junta forces in slaviansk, doesn't mean that rebellion is doomed. Remember, slaviansk is only ONE area out of dozens of towns and villages, supporting people's republics.