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    Russian invasion of Finland Possible?

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    GarryB
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    Re: Russian invasion of Finland Possible?

    Post  GarryB on Wed May 14, 2014 8:43 am

    About this invasion of Finland and the thing about us joining NATO, my countrymen formerly opposed nato, but after the recent events, the support for nato has risen quite high and there are talking of a referendum to join nato. Not that i support it of course.

    Are Europeans not taught history in schools... lots of small countries joining into military alliances with big countries not only didn't assure peace in 1914, it started a brutal and bloody war whose result ended in another global war a few decades later... why would Finland joining NATO benefit Finland?

    Other than souring relations with Russia, how will it make Finland safer?

    Russia has no reason to invade Finland... if I wanted new territories it could easily right now add South Ossetia and Abkhazia to its collection and clearly eastern regions of the Ukraine seem to rather want to see Russian soldiers there than armed Ukrainian ones... Sure Putin accepted Crimean requests for membership in the Russian federation, but that is mainly because it is pretty much Russian territory with Russian citizens already who have voted several times to join Russia... there was little chance of civil opposition... unlike parts of the Ukraine or for that matter the Baltic states or Finland.



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    Re: Russian invasion of Finland Possible?

    Post  Jyshky on Wed May 14, 2014 10:11 am

    GarryB wrote:
    About this invasion of Finland and the thing about us joining NATO, my countrymen formerly opposed nato, but after the recent events, the support for nato has risen quite high and there are talking of a referendum to join nato. Not that i support it of course.

    Are Europeans not taught history in schools... lots of small countries joining into military alliances with big countries not only didn't assure peace in 1914, it started a brutal and bloody war whose result ended in another global war a few decades later... why would Finland joining NATO benefit Finland?

    Other than souring relations with Russia, how will it make Finland safer?

    Russia has no reason to invade Finland... if I wanted new territories it could easily right now add South Ossetia and Abkhazia to its collection and clearly eastern regions of the Ukraine seem to rather want to see Russian soldiers there than armed Ukrainian ones... Sure Putin accepted Crimean requests for membership in the Russian federation, but that is mainly because it is pretty much Russian territory with Russian citizens already who have voted several times to join Russia... there was little chance of civil opposition... unlike parts of the Ukraine or for that matter the Baltic states or Finland.

    1. Yes, we are thaught military history and history of the wars and the alliances and coalitions. And also people in my country think that we cannot stay neutral forever in this conflict, because they are aware and afraid of the possibility of Russian Invasion of Finland.

    2. They believe, that we should not "bow to Russian commands", and we should "break away from Russian sphere of influence" by joining nato.

    3. They believe according to what some people in Russian media have said that Russia should try to attain the former borders of the Russian Empire, in essence taking back Finland. There have been some people in Russian media saying that it was a mistake to give Finland independence and that they should try to take Finland back.

    These are some of the reasons of why most of the people think that joining NATO might be a good idea.

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    Re: Russian invasion of Finland Possible?

    Post  GarryB on Wed May 14, 2014 12:17 pm

    1. Yes, we are thaught military history and history of the wars and the alliances and coalitions. And also people in my country think that we cannot stay neutral forever in this conflict, because they are aware and afraid of the possibility of Russian Invasion of Finland.

    So do you think joining a large military organisation that opposes Russia would make a Russian invasion less likely or more likely?

    2. They believe, that we should not "bow to Russian commands", and we should "break away from Russian sphere of influence" by joining nato.

    And when did Russia demand Finland bow down? I would think bowing to Russia would suit the anti Russians because lowering your head to Russia raises your ass to NATO which is appropriate for what NATO wants Finland for... Smile

    The thing you forget is that no piece of paper... signed or otherwise will change Finlands physical position of little land buffer between NATO and Russia. That little piece of paper does however determine what Russian forces might do on their way through Finland... ie pass through a neutral country or crap all over you on the way to get your allies... but if you want to have a big fight between NATO and Russia on Finnish land then by all means join NATO.

    You likely wont be safe in a war in Europe, though your trade with Russia will likely suffer and the chance of conflict will greatly increase... and for what?

    3. They believe according to what some people in Russian media have said that Russia should try to attain the former borders of the Russian Empire, in essence taking back Finland. There have been some people in Russian media saying that it was a mistake to give Finland independence and that they should try to take Finland back.

    Unless it was Putin I think it is safe to ignore such twaddle.

    BTW the best way to make more Russians think that way is to join NATO and become a threat to Russia... that is about the only way Finland would become a threat...

    These are some of the reasons of why most of the people think that joining NATO might be a good idea.

    Pretty weak reasons. Of course when you do join NATO and Russia reacts by reducing economic trade and things become less friendly I am sure those who wanted to join NATO will claim this is proof they had to join NATO.

    There are other places Russia can sell its products of course.


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    Re: Russian invasion of Finland Possible?

    Post  Asf on Wed May 14, 2014 2:39 pm

    They believe, that we should not "bow to Russian commands"
    Rly? Ever heard of Russia commanding someone? But Washington D.C. makes europeans even to take part in american wars? Not to mention smaller third world states. This is called "the leading role of the United States".

    Believe it or not, but Finland's ground forces are one of the best in Europe. There is no actual reason for Finland to join NATO, as it can defend itself from "possible" russian onslaught by causing unacceptable losses to the Russian Army.

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    Re: Russian invasion of Finland Possible?

    Post  Regular on Wed May 14, 2014 6:32 pm

    Airspace violations, aggressive Russian officials remarks and etc doesn't help build strong relation with Finland. Russia should cherish such non aligned European countries, support them, score PR points, win public minds and hearts and gain an ally. Make Russophobia a past and good relations with Russia should be strived for. Maybe I'm wrong, but Russia should ally with couple EU and NATO countries just to get the leverage over USA . You can only win by playing smart.

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    Re: Russian invasion of Finland Possible?

    Post  sepheronx on Wed May 14, 2014 7:50 pm

    Western propaganda machine runs rampant in EE, and any attempts to make friends with the other nations has been met with hostility for 'the past' and evil Russians, ect. I agree to a point about Finland as they seem to be the least brainwashed. But besides maybe Bulgaria, the rest of EU hates Russia.

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    Re: Russian invasion of Finland Possible?

    Post  magnumcromagnon on Wed May 14, 2014 8:05 pm

    sepheronx wrote:Western propaganda machine runs rampant in EE, and any attempts to make friends with the other nations has been met with hostility for 'the past' and evil Russians, ect. I agree to a point about Finland as they seem to be the least brainwashed. But besides maybe Bulgaria, the rest of EU hates Russia.

    Don't forget the Greeks love Russians, the Greek military is more likely to fight the Turks than to fight the Russians, despite being "NATO allies".

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    Re: Russian invasion of Finland Possible?

    Post  Regular on Wed May 14, 2014 8:44 pm

    sepheronx wrote:Western propaganda machine runs rampant in EE, and any attempts to make friends with the other nations has been met with hostility for 'the past' and evil Russians, ect. I agree to a point about Finland as they seem to be the least brainwashed. But besides maybe Bulgaria, the rest of EU hates Russia.
    Germany, Italy, France doesn't. Look how "keen" they are about sanctions. Too bad our retarded president won again. There were few people who considered normalized relations with Russia to be our prime goal.

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    Re: Russian invasion of Finland Possible?

    Post  Regular on Wed May 14, 2014 8:47 pm

    magnumcromagnon wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:Western propaganda machine runs rampant in EE, and any attempts to make friends with the other nations has been met with hostility for 'the past' and evil Russians, ect. I agree to a point about Finland as they seem to be the least brainwashed. But besides maybe Bulgaria, the rest of EU hates Russia.

    Don't forget the Greeks love Russians, the Greek military is more likely to fight the Turks than to fight the Russians, despite being "NATO allies".
    And don't forget the turks. No matter what they said about Crimea, but business is a business. They are willing to work with Russia. So is Hungary. There are more countries who want to have good relations, but there is certain puppeteer who pressurises those countries.

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    Re: Russian invasion of Finland Possible?

    Post  GarryB on Thu May 15, 2014 4:15 am

    The problem is not the puppets... it is the puppet master.

    Until the puppets decide to cut the strings there is no point to engaging with Europe because when that string is pulled the EU middle finger comes up... so what is the point?

    Personally I think Russia should look south and east and boost trade in other directions everywhere apart from the west to reduce the strings the west can pull to try to control Russia and I also think the EU should do the same... not that either would listen to me...

    I just find it really funny that small countries (I live in a small country that also thinks it can be relevant if we follow the US BTW) seem to think being controlled by the US is better than having good relations with Russia... Neutral


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    Re: Russian invasion of Finland Possible?

    Post  Asf on Thu May 15, 2014 7:42 am

    GarryB wrote:The problem is not the puppets... it is the puppet master.

    Until the puppets decide to cut the strings there is no point to engaging with Europe because when that string is pulled the EU middle finger comes up... so what is the point?

    Personally I think Russia should look south and east and boost trade in other directions everywhere apart from the west to reduce the strings the west can pull to try to control Russia and I also think the EU should do the same... not that either would listen to me...

    I just find it really funny that small countries (I live in a small country that also thinks it can be relevant if we follow the US BTW) seem to think being controlled by the US is better than having good relations with Russia... Neutral
    As US sanctions have shown, those strings aren't that tight, plus they can be pulled by Russia as well.

    And about small countries you are totally right, I just can't understand that US-centric logic

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    Re: Russian invasion of Finland Possible?

    Post  Asf on Thu May 15, 2014 7:46 am

    Regular wrote:Airspace violations, aggressive Russian officials remarks and etc
    Do you have any proofs about it? Is where any aggressive remarks toward Finland or it's just sombody's imagination? I can't recall any aviolations of Finland's airspace as well

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    Re: Russian invasion of Finland Possible?

    Post  mutantsushi on Thu May 15, 2014 9:53 am

    I believe there was a recent incident of what seemed to be a Russia backed psyops/propaganda operation,
    which doesn't help Russia's image at all, though the US/NATO counterpart of course should be understood.
    Finland can be wholly forthright with Russia in assuaging any actual concerning actions Russia has engaged in,
    but I fail to see why joining NATO (in name or effect ala Sweden) is needed,
    nor why Russia would not be motivated to positively engage with a Finland acting in good faith and strong neutrality.

    Rantings of marginal nationalists is just not a reason for a real change in policy, some nuts rant about Alaska...get real.
    If that is a real concern to Sweden, ask the Russian government to denounce it, have public education against it, etc.
    Likewise Finland can reciprocate by not harboring individuals connected to crime, terrorism, separatism.
    If there is problems in relations, those should be addressed: Signing up to NATO nuclear umbrella does not solve the conflict.

    There just isn't any rationale for Russia to attack neutral Finland, while there does exist one within NATO.
    Russia doesn't need Finland's trees, and doesn't need to occupy Finland to get mutually beneficial value from Finland's talent.
    Modern NATO efforts to demonize Russia and/or equate it with USSR fall flat with Finland in particular,
    because Finland sat out the Cold War outside of NATO while never being attacked by the evil USSR,
    despite even a certain history of nationalist conflict w/ Russia, so why does Finland possibly need to join NATO now?
    Besides future POSSIBILITIES of war, joining NATO immediately has a CERTAIN negative impact on economic and other ties.

    This same argument goes for Sweden just as much, as a truly neutral country Russia has no reason to ever attack them,
    WW3 could go down and a neutral Sweden could sit it out just fine and dandy,
    but a Sweden enmeshed in NATO and plots against non-NATO countries immediately does become a military target.
    Sweden talks about reinforcing Gotland as if Russia would ever have a need to attack a demilitarized neutral Gotland,
    while militarizing it directly increases the threat of Swedish intervention in Baltics/Belorussia/Ukraine/Russia.

    Remember when NATO media talked up the EEZ conflict between Russia and Norway, to the point of military threat?
    When RU/NO diplomatically solved it, I don't remember NATO media diminishing the Russian threat and praising Russian diplomacy.
    Here is a US "Atlanticist" article villainizing Russia for happening to win in it's case adjudicating the EEZ in Sea of Okhotsk:
    http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=42282&no_cache=1
    Doing exactly what they are supposed to, conforming to norms of int'l law, yet still portrayed as ominous aggressor...
    While the issue doesn't even directly concern the US (source of article), they just consider anything to Russia's benefit as evil.
    (the article claims the ruling would block "shipping" yet EEZs in no way restrict that, never mind the zone is not an int'l transit route)

    Joining NATO is joining an alliance that talks international law, but illegally attacked Libya, Serbia, Syria (by proxy),
    Turkish involvement there being particularly notable (and NATO acquiescence to Turkish aggression in N. Cyprus being another black mark),
    yet ignores the fundamental fact of Ukraine crisis: the junta ILLEGALLY removed President, and all later acts are thusly tainted,
    (in the strong Presidential system Ukraine had, most ever law, administrative ruling, constitutional court changes, etc, go thru the President)
    which is a fundamentally sound reason for any Ukrainian to refuse to recognize the junta, it's packed courts, laws, armed forces, etc.
    Never mind avoidance of the fact that the EU Parliament previously sanctioned (in 2012?) Svoboda and warned against any cooperation with it.
    WHAT HAPPENED THERE? No explanation there from the coalition of freedom and human rights? Down the old amnesia hole...
    Gross avoidance of such basic facts of the Ukraine situation (certainly in public view) does not make it a valid resurrection of NATO's purpose.

    Never mind that Finland never found a need for NATO in it's original purpose against the USSR,
    so why would "neo-USSR Russia" (in NATO media terms) possibly change that?
    NATO has a history of breaking security promises to Russia, and thus has zero credibility in peaceful diplomacy, etc.
    NATO members can escalate danger of conflict without consensus, while all members share vulnerability collectively,
    as seen in moving forces to Baltics by agreement of certain NATO members only, outside of North Atlantic Council process,
    (where Germany at the least seemingly would have opposed that move)
    So joining NATO means signing up to a "UNKNOWN" factor of future danger BEYOND what bilateral relations would bring.
    The scope of bilateral conflict just seems vastly smaller than the conflict between NATO and Russia,
    with NATO basically openly treating Russia as a current ENEMY, as opposed to Finland's current relations with Russia.

    Ultimately, I question the supposed defensive benefit in joining NATO,
    Counter to the assumption NATO's umbrella can be expanded ad infinitum,
    I just don't think that if push came to shove, NATO would truly defend to the hilt ALL new members in all scenarios.
    We already know that NATO does operate in "defense" of countries not covered by it,
    so assuming there is NATO will to defend Finland in some scenario where Finland is uniquely attacked,
    it doesn't seem plausible that NATO would do so if Finland was a member, but not do so if Finland was not
    If Finland is attacked with the whole of NATO in some larger conflict, I doubt NATO will divert resources
    from wherever they are most useful to defend Finland in particular, while neutral Finland could easily sit out any conflict.


    Last edited by mutantsushi on Thu May 15, 2014 10:43 am; edited 2 times in total

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    Re: Russian invasion of Finland Possible?

    Post  GarryB on Thu May 15, 2014 10:10 am

    They are probably like the Russian Air Force violations of UK air space... not their actual air space but the area of space they think of as theirs extending hundreds of kms from their actual borders in international air space.

    And of course every single close encounter is reported as if it is a violation... which is ironic considering the last 60 odd years the US and UK and other NATO members have been deliberately violating Soviet airspace to trigger a reaction by the air defence forces so frequencies can be recorded and procedures examined to allow planning to penetrate that airspace can be more accurate and effective.

    And aggressive Official remarks... that is an issue with what your own media reports... any idiot can claim all sorts of things when a microphone is pushed into their face... not really something to base international relations on... or is it?


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    Re: Russian invasion of Finland Possible?

    Post  Asf on Thu May 15, 2014 12:34 pm

    GarryB wrote:
    And aggressive Official remarks... that is an issue with what your own media reports... any idiot can claim all sorts of things when a microphone is pushed into their face... not really something to base international relations on... or is it?
    I literally can't recall any aggressive rethorics toward Finland. There are other countries like Poland or may be even Sweden (not to mention US), but Finland? Country got their statehood from the russian emperor Alexander II (there is even his monument in the center of Helsenki), and that statehood was never questioned by Russia, not even by Stalin.
    Some years ago finnish diplomats have smuggled a child out of Russia in a diplomatic car (it was a child of mixed family with russian citizenship), but still there were no aggresiveness even from media or somekind of a crazed politician.

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    Re: Russian invasion of Finland Possible?

    Post  GarryB on Sat May 17, 2014 12:19 pm

    There was support for Chechen groups and if I remember correctly a few Chechen criminals had websites in Finland too... so it is hardly all one sided.

    Relations between neighbours are always complex and extensive... if you want to find problems they will always be fairly easy to find if you look.

    Not a good reason to join NATO and make relations worse.


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