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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #2

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    Hannibal Barca
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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #2

    Post  Hannibal Barca on Sun Mar 09, 2014 4:55 pm

    flamming_python wrote:UPDATE:

    Seems Lugansk has definitely fallen out of the control of the Kiev authorities  russia 



    The governor has abdicated and has left. Police inside the building aren't trying to prevent the entrance of any protestors, etc... they are only making sure that damage isn't done and no-one loots anything.

    Now the people have to rapidly organise and set up volunteer brigades, checkpoints, etc... they don't have much time until the Kiev government comes knockin'


    2 weeks for Lugansk which is near the borders  Suspect 
    Come on let us accelerate else it will take an eternity to reach Kiev!

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #2

    Post  collegeboy16 on Sun Mar 09, 2014 5:01 pm

    looks like its time to ring roanapur a call- Hotel Moscow could use the chewtoy.  Razz 
    tho srsly- if more of these PMCs come we are in for a new era. MGS4 anyone?

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #2

    Post  flamming_python on Sun Mar 09, 2014 5:17 pm

    BTW humanitarian aid to the Crimea is being or has been sent via convoys or other means from Volgograd, Chechnya, Chuvashia, Moscow city, Moscow region, Dagestan, St. Petersburg city, Stavropol, Perm, Tatarstan, Krasnoyarsk, Novosibirsk, Krasnodar Krai, Yakutiya, Udmurtia, Bashkiria, Altai Krai, Ingushetia and Adygea.
    These are all either citizen's, charities' or regional government initiatives.
    The Federal government is also planning it's own humanitarian aid supplies to the Crimea.

    Separately, the Federal government has also set aside a few billion dollars to be used for covering the Crimea's budget, social obligations and economic development.
    Moscow city, Altai republic, Stavropol, Udmurtia, Kostroma, Kaliningrad and North Ossetia are setting up funds to give financial aid to the Crimea
    Senators are calling for a commission to be formed for Russian regions to donate economic aid to bordering Ukrainian regions, and also for the reception of possible Ukrainian refugees.

    Several Russian regions have already signaled their readiness to accept refugees.

    Zhirinovsky's LDPR political party is sending it's own funds and volunteers to the Crimea.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #2

    Post  flamming_python on Sun Mar 09, 2014 6:46 pm

    There was a pro-Russian rally in Odessa earlier on too:
    http://www.ustream.tv/channel/timer-video

    Apparently the local SBU in Lugansk took the side of the people today; they are outside Kiev's control too.

    Donetsk seems to have had it's head cut-off though. All they've been doing is seizing the regional administration building, then giving it up, then seizing it again and so on. And now they're not even doing that; even though the crowds there are bigger than anywhere else.
    They need to organise and come up with a plan; seize all government buildings there, seize local TV and radio stations, prosecution office, etc.... and blockade police stations unless the police agree not to interfere or go onto their side. Then they need to set up volunteer brigades, block roads into the city, and set up their own local government there, with different people answering for different roles.

    The new head of the Crimean republic; Sergey Aksenov, gives some valuable advise:


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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #2

    Post  zino on Sun Mar 09, 2014 7:00 pm

    Thank you flaming python for the report. Much appreciated.
    However I'm really worried because even EU continue to escalate the thing. What a disgrace!
    You are right: Russia could win only in the long run, with lot of patience and iron nerves.
    Has anyone seen Khodorovsky in Kiev? A new political star is born...

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #2

    Post  Regular on Sun Mar 09, 2014 7:05 pm

    Austin wrote:Dreaded Blackwater Mercenaries have arrived 

    Has Blackwater been deployed to Ukraine? Notorious U.S. mercenaries 'seen on the streets of flashpoint city' as Russia claim
    Haha only mentally ill would write  that article. No wonder it's the Daily Fail.
    Them people could be Sokol or privateers of pro Maidan oligarch. SBU also comes to my mind.
    Why do you need Americans with crappy training and awful ROE here? What bunch of greasy fucks from god knows where far away could do better than local people can't? There are plenty of trained personal there.
    Yankees would suck in ex soviet environment. I doubt they would speak the lango or have understanding  of situation especially knowing their inheritance of down syndrome.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #2

    Post  zino on Sun Mar 09, 2014 7:25 pm

    flamming_python wrote:There was a pro-Russian rally in Odessa earlier on too:
    http://www.ustream.tv/channel/timer-video
    cut

    Wonderful video. I can recognize here:
    - russia flag
    - soviet flag
    - russian navy flag
    - odessa city flag
    - israel flag (amazing!)
    - tzarist flag

    and others that I don't know (any help?).
    Israel could help a bit if it retired the ambassador from Kiev. Obviously I'm dreaming...

    etaepsilonk
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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #2

    Post  etaepsilonk on Sun Mar 09, 2014 8:07 pm

    Regular wrote:
    Austin wrote:Dreaded Blackwater Mercenaries have arrived 

    Has Blackwater been deployed to Ukraine? Notorious U.S. mercenaries 'seen on the streets of flashpoint city' as Russia claim
    Haha only mentally ill would write  that article. No wonder it's the Daily Fail.
    Them people could be Sokol or privateers of pro Maidan oligarch. SBU also comes to my mind.
    Why do you need Americans with crappy training and awful ROE here? What bunch of greasy fucks from god knows where far away could do better than local people can't? There are plenty of trained personal there.
    Yankees would suck in ex soviet environment. I doubt they would speak the lango or have understanding  of situation especially knowing their inheritance of down syndrome.

    I'd suggest you to check your language, Regular.

    Also, hiring foreigners makes sense, if loyalty of local forces is in doubt (happens all the time in the third world).
    In this article I haven't seen any definitive proof that they're from Blackwater, but their foreign origins are pretty likely, when you look at their weapons, they don't look russian/soviet made for sure.

    Btw, could someone identify them?  Smile 
    I think that some folks in those photos were carrying Beryl/Tantal rifles (Polish), and P-90s. Could be wrong, however.


    To magnum:

    Sorry, but your article ( http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/29/opinion/sunday/imagining-a-remapped-middle-east.html ) constitutes an OPINION, rather than official USA policy. That's especially the case for Iraq. If they wanted it divided, they could've EASILY done so during their 8 years of occupation.


    Last edited by etaepsilonk on Sun Mar 09, 2014 10:05 pm; edited 2 times in total

    Hannibal Barca
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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #2

    Post  Hannibal Barca on Sun Mar 09, 2014 8:24 pm

    Hiring English speaking mercenaries, with NATO equipment and NATO command and behavior is more than crazy. Is suicidal.
    I consider this information to either be false, or have to do with some kind of provocation.

    magnumcromagnon
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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #2

    Post  magnumcromagnon on Sun Mar 09, 2014 9:04 pm

    This shouldn't be a surprise, China and India back Russia's position and oppose sanctions:


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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #2

    Post  flamming_python on Sun Mar 09, 2014 9:56 pm

    etaepsilonk wrote:
    Regular wrote:
    Austin wrote:Dreaded Blackwater Mercenaries have arrived 

    Has Blackwater been deployed to Ukraine? Notorious U.S. mercenaries 'seen on the streets of flashpoint city' as Russia claim
    Haha only mentally ill would write  that article. No wonder it's the Daily Fail.
    Them people could be Sokol or privateers of pro Maidan oligarch. SBU also comes to my mind.
    Why do you need Americans with crappy training and awful ROE here? What bunch of greasy fucks from god knows where far away could do better than local people can't? There are plenty of trained personal there.
    Yankees would suck in ex soviet environment. I doubt they would speak the lango or have understanding  of situation especially knowing their inheritance of down syndrome.

    I'd suggest you to check your language, Regular.

    Also, hiring foreigners makes sense, if loyalty of local forces is in doubt (happens all the time in the third world).
    In this article I haven't seen any definitive proof that they're from Blackwater, but their foreign origins are pretty likely, when you look at their weapons, they don't look russian/soviet made for sure.

    Btw, could someone identify them?  Smile 
    I think that some folks in those photos were carrying Beryl/Tantal rifles (Polish), and P-90s. Could be wrong, however.

    They look sorta like Russian Alfa Spetsnaz or certain CSTO units, similar uniforms.

    Most likely, they are either Ukrainian Alfa Spetsnaz (SBU), Sokol Spetsnaz (MVS/Police) or private mercenaries hired by an oligarch. The first two variants are more likely.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #2

    Post  etaepsilonk on Sun Mar 09, 2014 10:08 pm

    flamming_python wrote:
    etaepsilonk wrote:
    Regular wrote:
    Austin wrote:Dreaded Blackwater Mercenaries have arrived 

    Has Blackwater been deployed to Ukraine? Notorious U.S. mercenaries 'seen on the streets of flashpoint city' as Russia claim
    Haha only mentally ill would write  that article. No wonder it's the Daily Fail.
    Them people could be Sokol or privateers of pro Maidan oligarch. SBU also comes to my mind.
    Why do you need Americans with crappy training and awful ROE here? What bunch of greasy fucks from god knows where far away could do better than local people can't? There are plenty of trained personal there.
    Yankees would suck in ex soviet environment. I doubt they would speak the lango or have understanding  of situation especially knowing their inheritance of down syndrome.

    I'd suggest you to check your language, Regular.

    Also, hiring foreigners makes sense, if loyalty of local forces is in doubt (happens all the time in the third world).
    In this article I haven't seen any definitive proof that they're from Blackwater, but their foreign origins are pretty likely, when you look at their weapons, they don't look russian/soviet made for sure.

    Btw, could someone identify them?  Smile 
    I think that some folks in those photos were carrying Beryl/Tantal rifles (Polish), and P-90s. Could be wrong, however.

    They look sorta like Russian Alfa Spetsnaz or certain CSTO units, similar uniforms.

    Most likely, they are either Ukrainian Alfa Spetsnaz (SBU), Sokol Spetsnaz (MVS/Police) or private mercenaries hired by an oligarch. The first two variants are more likely.


    Well, logic says that they're indeed local forces. But in reality, they could be ANYONE. I initially thought that they could be Polish SF unit "Grom" or something  Smile 

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #2

    Post  magnumcromagnon on Sun Mar 09, 2014 11:23 pm

    What serious sanctions would do to the global space industry:

    By the Way, the World's Space Missions Rely on Russian Hardware

    One thing to keep in mind as tensions rise between Russia and the West: We can't send people to space without them.

    Last December, an Atlas V rocket rose from
    Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, carrying a secret observation satellite for the National Reconnaissance Office. The engine in the rocket's booster was an RD-180s, made by Russia's Energomash corporation. This is only one of many examples that demonstrate the world space industry's reliance on Russia for flight-ready hardware. It's true for the European Union, Japan, and the United States.

    Because of Russia's sudden invasion of the Crimea, many voices are calling on Western leaders to punish Vladimir Putin's country and make it a pariah state. But strained relations with Russia could endanger space missions around the world.

    Pentagon

    The Air Force hires United Launch Alliance (ULA), a Lockheed Martin-Boeing partnership, to launch its most critical satellites. Those often wind up atop Atlas V rockets, which feature the high-tech, Russian-made RD-180 as the heart of the launch system. How vital are these Russian engines? So much so that the Air Force is looking at licensing the design and producing them in the United States.

    These Atlas V engines have long been the subject of political tugs-of-war between Moscow and Washington. Russia has publicly considered stopping the delivery because the United States uses them for military launches. The Pentagon has responded by setting up contingencies, but most of them rely on at least some parts from Russia's Energomash.

    What about the all-American SpaceX launch system, Falcon 9? SpaceX is on track to be certified by the Air Force for national security launches, but the earliest EELV-class mission SpaceX could launch would be in the 2017. The ULA's other workhorse, the Delta IV, doesn't use Russian engines. However, this engine isn't used very often anymore and is probably more expensive to operate than the Atlas V.

    U.S. Private Space

    Of the three companies vying for NASA contracts to deliver astronauts to orbit, two rely on United Launch Alliance (ULA) Atlas V rockets. Those companies, Sierra Nevada and Boeing, turned in their proposals to NASA based on that arrangement in January. The third company, SpaceX, designed it own launch hardware. If there is a disruption in the delivery of engines to ULA because of geopolitics, that could influence NASA's selection of a company to deliver astronauts to ISS.

    Russia also has a hand in the private space cargo missions to ISS. Orbital Sciences' Antares rocket relies on NK-26s engines built in Russia and designed for the Soviet lunar program. However, the long-term availability of these engines is in doubt and Orbital is coming up with other options.


    International Space Station

    The most obvious case of our reliance on Russian hardware is the International Space Station: The Russian-operated Soyuz delivers crew and cargo there. The United States has been renting seats on the Soyuz spacecraft for about $60 million a pop since NASA ended the Space Shuttle program in 2011. A Soyuz also serves as the lifeboat in case of emergencies. If Soyuz flights are curtailed, the ISS would have to be abandoned, at least temporarily.

    European Union

    The Ukrainian crisis is a challenge for Europe, and the economic ties between the EU and Russia may become political tools. A good example of this can be found in French Guiana, a small South American nation where the European Union venture Arianespace operates a spaceport.

    In a joint agreement, the Russians launch Soyuz missions from the jungle spaceport, taking advantage of the equatorial location to fling satellites into orbit. (The Soyuz can carry 3.3 tons of payload into orbit from this launch pad versus 1.8 tons for a launch in Russia, because the Earth's rotation is faster close to the equator.) Arianespace, in return, can offer more launches and also guard against rocket delays by switching launch vehicles. The agreement could be subject to political gestures on both sides.

    http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/space/rockets/by-the-way-the-worlds-space-missions-rely-on-russian-hardware-16554242?src=spr_FBPAGE&spr_id=1457_46496334

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #2

    Post  George1 on Sun Mar 09, 2014 11:42 pm


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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #2

    Post  flamming_python on Mon Mar 10, 2014 12:46 am

    There was another shooting in Kharkov today; 2 ordinary people dead

    And a grenade thrown in Donetsk at some policemen, some were killed.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #2

    Post  magnumcromagnon on Mon Mar 10, 2014 1:15 am

    George1 wrote:

    Would someone please be so kind to explain the context of this photo? Is it some sort of naval blockade?

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #2

    Post  Cyberspec on Mon Mar 10, 2014 1:45 am

    Yeah it shows the Russian blockade of the Ukr. fleet in Sevastopol.

    ----

    Sergey Aksenov on the SE regions of Ukraine....in short he says that the Ukrainian state is in a state of dissolution and that the separation of the SE and the anexation to Russia is basically inevitable. He talk about the SE regions establishing new government structures (incl. defence units) and that Crimea will actively support them.  


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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #2

    Post  Austin on Mon Mar 10, 2014 4:09 am

    What kind of support does Putin policy in Ukraine have support in Russia among Russian people.........do they have good support for he is doing ?

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #2

    Post  flamming_python on Mon Mar 10, 2014 4:49 am

    Austin wrote:What kind of support does Putin policy in Ukraine have support in Russia among Russian people.........do they have good support for he is doing ?

    Big support. But of course there is the clampdown on anti-war demonstrations, TV media control, etc... don't think that's popular with a lot of people.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #2

    Post  Regular on Mon Mar 10, 2014 5:36 am

    [quote="etaepsilonk"][quote="Regular"]
    Austin wrote:
    I'd suggest you to check your language, Regular.
    Sorry if I made our ex Blackwater members cry, I became intolerant to tabloids.

    when you look at their weapons, they don't look russian/soviet made for sure.
    Any reason they should? There are plenty of imported weapons used in Ukrainian SF units. Tavor, Aug, AR-15 and etc.
    Btw, could someone identify them?  Smile 
    Your typical neighbourhood 74 and heavily decked 74u or as You've mentioned Beryl. Even Lithuanian army used them in recce training as opfor weapon so it wouldn't surprise me.
    I didn't see Fn P90 in this video, but I think Ukraine is using FN production as well.

    I doubt Grom uses helmets made in Kharkiv. Clearly Ukrainian Kaska helmets. It's more typical look of Sokol.



    Compare to this

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #2

    Post  flamming_python on Mon Mar 10, 2014 6:31 am

    Sunset in Simferopol, Crimea  russia 


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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #2

    Post  Austin on Mon Mar 10, 2014 8:35 am

    http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/10/world/europe/ukraine-crisis/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

    "If there is an annexation of Crimea, if there is a referendum that moves Crimea from Ukraine to Russia, we won't recognize it, nor will most of the world," U.S. deputy national security adviser Tony Blinken said on CNN's "State of the Union" on Sunday.

    "So I think you'd see, if there are further steps in the direction of annexing Crimea, a very strong, coordinated international response."

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #2

    Post  Austin on Mon Mar 10, 2014 8:59 am

    The worrying part is co-ordinated response from EU and US this will screw the Russian Economy ?

    If referendum is held and they decide to join Russia but remain autonomous.....Putin can just reject it and say remain autonomous but part of Ukraine .....isnt it ?

    That way the West cant say Putin is annexing Crimea ?

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #2

    Post  flamming_python on Mon Mar 10, 2014 9:59 am

    Austin wrote:The worrying part is co-ordinated response from EU and US this will screw the Russian Economy ?

    If referendum is held and they decide to join Russia but remain autonomous.....Putin can just reject it and say remain autonomous but part of Ukraine .....isnt it ?

    That way the West cant say Putin is annexing Crimea ?

    I think the referendum is for show. Just for Russia to demonstrate to the world that yes it has a mandate being there (much like the US and pals always claim they have from the local population whenever they go to liberate whoever).
    It's also a way of giving a big middle finger to the US and EU and show that Russia is capable of doing whatever the hell it wants it these blocs threaten instability or its interests right on its front doorstep, and that it it isn't afraid of punishment. But that doesn't mean that Russia will actually do whatever the hell it wants, it just wants to show that it can if it wants.

    Such a referendum and its ostensibly pro-Russian landslide of a result would be an important justification for whatever more realistic and less confrontational course of action Russia decides on after that. Hopefully the support and establishment of a Eastern Ukrainian government, based in the Crimea for now, that doesn't recognize the authority of the Kiev Junta. Eventually this government can morph into a seperate country altogether but that's later on. The Crimeans have to know, that their sovereignty, their place in the world and legitimacy, their economic welfare and security depend directly on just how much of the rest of the Ukraine they managed to help liberate and organise under their banner.
    If they are by themselves, then sure they would survive, and Russia will protect them - but they will end up as little more than a large Pridnestrovie, and will end up as a big drag on Russia.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #2

    Post  Austin on Mon Mar 10, 2014 10:10 am

    Or they might recognise Crimea as independent entity , much like S Ossetia or Abhkazia

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