I read the forum for sometime now and I was thinking lately of registering, but I got the decision due to this Ukrainian matter to express some thoughts.
So from where should I start my analysis. I will start from this more general matter which I consider absolutely vital for any discussion.
Is Russian and China (and partially India) in an unbreakable alliance for at least the next couple of decades or not?
If the answer is no then there is no point in continuing this discussion. Is game over. As simple as that.
If the answer is yes then some interesting times are ahead. First of all this EU thing. Is not gonna survive this decade.
EURO is a tragedy, Euro-skepticism is getting big and politically the situation is deteriorating with lightening speed.
I live in Greece and I have good information (long stays) for Italy and France as well.
Long story short. Greece have more than 50% chances to brake out of US dominance the next two years if adequately supported
politically by Russia and economically by China. The people here are burning and bursting pro-Russian.
Italy and to a lesser extend Spain and Portugal follow Greece's path. Especially Italy is already in great political turmoil.
Hungary and Czech nationalist insurgence is Eastwards as well.
In general nationalism grows by lips and bounds in Europe and it is entirety pro-Russian. Including Le pen and UKIP as well,
with the sole exception of Ukraine nationalism! but even this is good because Ukraine nationalism will be either isolated or carried along.
And all this is just the beginning:
-Catalonia want separation
-Belgium is a mess with two separate minorities and a gigantic Muslim minority.
-Scotland runs a referendum next year
-Gibraltar set conflicts between Spain and UK constantly
-Even Venice wants separation from Italy
All this make us conclude that if the Eastern giants work together can annihilate the US puppet of Europe.
Actually the chances of interventionism is huge and can make the situation explode to such a degree that will make USSR's collapse look midget.
Of course nothing can be done without China's economic mighty, something that I think many Russo-centric analysts fail to realize.
Let us now that we summed the general situation go back to Ukraine. First without Russia and China's money the country will fall in sub-Saharan state,
but not vice verse. This means that East controls the situation no matter what.
Yet Ukrainian @@ are hugely pro American for reasons too lengthy to be mentioned here. Thus the optimal solution seems to be to buy time
until Europe's death self-manifest. In the meantime I doubt that anything will be signed with EU, East is in position to threat absolute suffocation of Ukraine's economy.
On the other hand "adopting" immediately Ukraine would cost to the Allies in the East big troubles:
-@@ Ukrainians dream on Europe causing havoc in the country and unfulfilled feelings
-their economy is a mess and require billions upon billions
-they are a liability in a point in time that every resource and Ruble, hmmm Renminbi I wanted to say, should focus towards provoking the collapse of EU/NATO.
From what I see and the information I have in my access, being non Russian speaker, the Eastern powers are exactly on schedule,
so if I am not very much mistaken, so far so good.