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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #1

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    Hannibal Barca
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    Analysis on the Ukriane-EU issue

    Post  Hannibal Barca on Fri Dec 13, 2013 3:30 am

    Hi guys,

    I read the forum for sometime now and I was thinking lately of registering, but I got the decision due to this Ukrainian matter to express some thoughts.

    So from where should I start my analysis. I will start from this more general matter which I consider absolutely vital for any discussion.
    Is Russian and China (and partially India) in an unbreakable alliance for at least the next couple of decades or not?
    If the answer is no then there is no point in continuing this discussion. Is game over. As simple as that.

    If the answer is yes then some interesting times are ahead. First of all this EU thing. Is not gonna survive this decade.
    EURO is a tragedy, Euro-skepticism is getting big and politically the situation is deteriorating with lightening speed.
    I live in Greece and I have good information (long stays) for Italy and France as well.
    Long story short. Greece have more than 50% chances to brake out of US dominance the next two years if adequately supported
    politically by Russia and economically by China. The people here are burning and bursting pro-Russian.

    Italy and to a lesser extend Spain and Portugal  follow Greece's path. Especially Italy is already in great political turmoil.
    Hungary and Czech nationalist insurgence is Eastwards as well.
    In general nationalism grows by lips and bounds in Europe and it is  entirety pro-Russian. Including Le pen and UKIP as well,
    with the sole exception of Ukraine nationalism! but even this is good because Ukraine nationalism will be either isolated or carried along.

    And all this is just the beginning:
    -Catalonia want separation
    -Belgium is a mess with two separate minorities and a gigantic Muslim minority.
    -Scotland runs a referendum next year
    -Gibraltar set conflicts between Spain and UK constantly  
    -Even Venice wants separation from Italy

    All this make us conclude that if the Eastern giants work together can annihilate the US puppet of Europe.
    Actually the chances of interventionism is huge and can make the situation explode to such a degree that will make USSR's collapse look midget.
    Of course nothing can be done without China's economic mighty, something that I think many Russo-centric analysts fail to realize.

    Let us now that we summed the general situation go back to Ukraine. First without Russia and China's money the country will fall in sub-Saharan state,
    but not vice verse. This means that East controls the situation no matter what.
    Yet Ukrainian @@ are hugely pro American for reasons too lengthy to be mentioned here. Thus the optimal solution seems to be to buy time
    until Europe's death self-manifest. In the meantime I doubt that anything will be signed with EU, East is in position to threat absolute suffocation of Ukraine's economy.
    On the other hand "adopting" immediately Ukraine would cost to the Allies in the East big troubles:
    -@@ Ukrainians dream on Europe causing havoc in the country and unfulfilled feelings
    -their economy is a mess and require billions upon billions
    -they are a liability in a point in time that every resource and Ruble, hmmm Renminbi I wanted to say, should focus towards  provoking the collapse of EU/NATO.

    From what I see and the information I have in my access, being non Russian speaker, the Eastern powers are exactly on schedule,
    so if I am not very much mistaken, so far so good.

    Hannibal

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #1

    Post  sepheronx on Fri Dec 13, 2013 3:38 am

    flamming_python wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:Easy said, but I bet many years ago no one say Ukraine going this far.  They van push for so called democracy, pay people to protest, and then Belarus is gone. So far, this tactic is working quite well against Russia. US funds opposition in Russia. Remember MZKT in mp.net? In Belarus he mentioned about anti Russians for supporting Lukashenko. There is anti Rusdian sentiment and that can be used against Russia. Then what? Russia sat on their duff, and realized that they were being cornered with Georgia they acted. What, you want it to eventually lead to war?

    It is people like you the underestimate what is happening on the world stage and downplaying the whole thing. Eventually we may hear about Siberia being funded to separate. There already is rampant corruption in Russia, that it may not be hard to find someone who wants money, seat in power just to follow what is being said by west. Yugoslavia is another example.

    You have too little faith in people

    Ukraine is going away due to their own choice.
    Yugoslavia went the way they did, due to their own choice. Sure Germany, US, etc.. interfered and supported their own sides, but that was after the process had started and they wouldn't have accomplished anything if there wasn't already real violence and divisions brewing.

    The USSR collapsed; and that had very little to do with the West or Western interference. It was our own choice.

    As for Belarus - everything is very simple. They, and Russians too; can see the mess that the Ukraine is becoming due to their unstable and meandering political trajectory, and after the Ukraine signs the AA with the EU, and its situation becomes even worse - Belarussians and Russians will see that too.
    People aren't dumb you know, and no-one in Belarus will want such a fate for their own country.

    The US put just as much money into funding the opposition and revolution in Russia in 2012 as they did in the Ukraine now. Yet they accomplished nothing, the people didn't want it.
    In the Ukraine they did accomplish something; because enough of the population allowed themselves to be fooled.

    All Russia has to do is become a successful, attractive country. Really - that's all it has to do. All the rest of these issues will then sort themselves out.

    I just do not see it that way. US and EU will do whatever it will take in order to curb Russian economic growth. A weak economy means a weak army, and a fragile system that is prime for the picking. They will not want Russia to have the opportunity to expand its economy. Simply fact is, without CIS, EU and such, Russia is nothing economically, at least not until they can completely control their own economy, and make sure that domestic consumption is key to its development. Outside of that, they become way too reliant and the sad part is, US and EU will try to curb it the best it can. It is in Russia's most important interest to trade and work with countries that are not entirely best with USA. Cuba is a lot of potential but Russia is not helping it build up to become a strong economic partner. Without it being a strong economic partner, Russia is very limited to what it can sell it. This goes for a lot of Russia's allies.

    Ultimately, if Russia is surrounded and the control of flow of its products is entirely though EU, then that is when Russia's economy will take a dive. Look what happened when T-Platforms was hit with blacklist. It failed/failing. Imagine now, with significant amount of Russian corporations with that same blacklist, and you will find you got nothing left or at least will not be able to operate other than North Korean style.

    There should be an emergency service in Russia to discuss the possibilities and building up allies as well as trying to seek further trade with countries that are important to it. Currently, China and India are the few countries that are neutral to Russia and willing to trade anything. France is investing a lot, but seems they want control of a lot of Russia's economy/industries. France, even if part of EU, is willing to look at everything with a blind eye regarding Russia. Real issue are these post soviet countries, and with them surrounding Russia, it isn't good, especially when you know whom decides to jump in and want to place a base in order to "protect Freedom".

    Reason why I have little faith in Humanity is that I had a nice long chat with my father whom worked for the US airforce (that I mentioned multiple times) and his activities in Pakistan and India in the 80's and the company he worked for. People have very little morals and are all out for themselves, especially even if that means willing to screw their own loved ones. I have lost faith in people because I follow what my father has told me "People are pigs".

    The sooner you realize that, the sooner you will now that they are doing this to spite Russia, not help it. Ultimate goal is to surround Russia so that Russia has very little say and very little chance in retaliation, and a high chance of being broken apart. Simple as that.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #1

    Post  Viktor on Fri Dec 13, 2013 3:57 am

    EU has no future as its not build on democratic principles since no country voted for EU constitution (it has not passed in France, Ireland, Holland) and than the EU commision decided to go on with the Lisbon treaty which is basically EU constitution with the first page ripped off.

    As Ukraine has lots of economy problems see no problem with Ukraine joining EU since it will furthermore speed up its breakup with Russia increasing its sphere of influence even sooner than it planned. Ukranians will see what EU really is and will have no other option but to crawl back and fall back in line. On the other hand I have no doubt that Russia will from the either outcome make its best to its interest.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #1

    Post  GarryB on Fri Dec 13, 2013 10:18 am

    Welcome Hannibal, I would say first of all it is the actions of the EU and US that drive the alliance between Russia and China as neither wants to be dictated to by Washington. There is no love between the countries, but neither want the US dominance to continue as they know it is bad for them and the rest of the world... it is bad for everyone but the US.

    This means that not just Russia and China but all the BRICSA countries and any other countries that want to join that economic and political group need to work together to fight off any moves the US or EU might make to destabilise or undermine them.

    If the countries of the EU want out then I don't think Russia should support them leaving, but once they have left they should offer separate trade deals that suit both parties... I sincerely believe that getting rid of politics and just selling stuff to each other is a much better future than all this sphere of influence and posturing BS.


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    Hannibal Barca
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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #1

    Post  Hannibal Barca on Fri Dec 13, 2013 11:10 am

    GarryB it is vital to address this China-Russia thing and equally the China-India etc.
    The most important reason US triumphed in the cold war was their ability to gather every single developed nation in the world against Soviet Union,
    connect them, bridged the differences and make what now is the West which is nothing more than the ability of USA to create a compact front.

    If after all this China and Russia (and others, including key countries like Indonesia) cannot genuinely pack together then they learn nothing from the past.
    They have no strategy and they gonna fail miserably once more. And I am adamant to this because I am sure most people don't realize.
    Differences between Russia and China is a joke compare to difference between Germany and France or Japan and US or most than anything Turkey and Greece.
    Yet Americans sort them out, amazingly to a great degree with honesty and not due to purpose.

    About your perception that
    "countries of the EU want out then I don't think Russia should support them leaving,  but once they have left they should offer separate trade deals that suit both parties...
    I sincerely believe that getting rid of politics and just selling stuff to each other is a much better future than all this sphere of influence and posturing BS."
    sorry for saying this to a generally well informed poster but is quite naive.

    eg let's take Greece which of course I know better than anybody.
    Greece went to West after WWII because this is what was decided although Greece is an East country (probably you hear this first time), created Orthodox church,
    and has great historic ties with Russia. Remained US puppet for 70 years now for the sole reason that US makes a pretty good job keeping a favorable
    political and social climax in the country.
    After USA economy went bust in 2008 the people forcing US rule to Greece struggle to hang on. And this is the same for a dozen European countries in the same time.
    Some former Warsaw pact ones as well.
    If Greece (as an example) don't get help to leave now, with the ways US help others, with the "orange" way let's say, and don't get the guarantees that now granted by US,
    then US dogs will remain home, will recover and finish off this incompetents from the East.

    Anglo-Saxons always do a great job realizing the obvious, others still find it very difficult to cope with simple realities.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #1

    Post  zino on Fri Dec 13, 2013 10:35 pm

    Hannibal Barca wrote:Hi guys,
    -Even Venice wants separation from Italy
    Hannibal

    Actually no. Only a small minority of separatist, since 20 years ago, wants that. But obviously a national bankruptcy can change the overall picture, like in Greece. I don't see major changes (revolutions, separatism, etc) in all Europe if not matched by real poverty, which at the moment is not the case.
    On the alliance subject. Russia's position is clear: multipolar world. IMO we will not see any proper alliance between Brics countries, but a convergence of interests. Look at the SCO: it's not a military alliance, but a platform for molding ideas in opposition to the "muscolar" western policies. I agree with you about Greece however: Russia can build something important there.

    More in topic: I don't understand anything of what is going on now in Ukraine. Ashton and Fule (oh dear!) today were babbling about a road map, IMF loans, cooperation platforms, etc etc. Yanuk emerged from deep coma and started to demand punishment for the provocateurs and analysis of risks behind signing EU agreement. It seems a stalemate at the moment.

    Meanwhile in Russia: https://www.kyivpost.com/content/russia-and-former-soviet-union/medvedev-ukraine-needs-to-overcome-tectonic-fault-threatening-states-existence-333626.html
    So Russia is still interested in preventing the partition of Ukraine. Is it a perception of force? (we can eventually control the whole Ukraine tomorrow without being bankrupt). Is it a perception of weakness? (we cannot live with nato bases in Galicia or worse so it's better to preserve the status quo). I don't know.

    Oh Jesus! My English is not getting better...apologies. I hope it is understandable.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #1

    Post  GarryB on Sat Dec 14, 2013 9:16 am

    If after all this China and Russia (and others, including key countries like Indonesia) cannot genuinely pack together then they learn nothing from the past.

    The thing is that most of the countries that will form this group are largely rejected by the west anyway so they have little choice really.

    Yet Americans sort them out, amazingly to a great degree with honesty and not due to purpose.

    I wouldn't give the US all the credit... the British have been hating the Russians long before communism and continue to dislike them now.

    sorry for saying this to a generally well informed poster but is quite naive.

    I think Russia should not stoop to the level of the US... what is the point of Russia winning if it comes out no worse than the US attempts to divide Russia?

    Actively working to split up countries is a pandoras box that should be left unopened.

    Russia can't and wont remove the US from Europe... Europe has to stand up on its own and make its own decisions. Surely the heart of western civilisation can work things out on their own?


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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #1

    Post  Regular on Sat Dec 14, 2013 3:26 pm

    Viktor wrote:EU has no future as its not build on democratic principles since no country voted for EU constitution (it has not passed in France, Ireland, Holland) and than the EU commision decided to go on with the Lisbon treaty which is basically EU constitution with the first page ripped off.

    A M E N !


    GarryB wrote:
    I wouldn't give the US all the credit... the British have been hating the Russians long before communism and continue to dislike them now.

    Yes, it is comical sometimes. Stupid stereotypes left, right, no one cares to say that in public, but no single bad word on their friends from middle east.
    Hell I'm Russian to most of British and You should hear the crap they say. And I'm talking about middle class, white collars. Dailymail and other crap propaganda planted their seed in the people. 
    Sometimes it reminds me of the way ancient Greeks looked down at Romans. 
    But then again, Russians started hating almost everyone around them too. Everyone is their enemy and etc. 

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #1

    Post  Cyberspec on Sun Dec 15, 2013 5:00 am

    Flaming Python's view that Russia should just wait and watch has some merit but is not realistic. Events could force a reaction even if the Rus. government doesn't want to get involved. There are several million Russians in Ukraine who can't just be abandoned and their views ignored. Going by what I'm reading, I seriously doubt that they will accept a forceful change of government in Ukraine. In such a scenario, Russia won't be able to just sit and watch

    Also Russia aspires to be one of the leading countries in the world. There are certain responsibilities (and costs) involved for a country aspiring to such a position.

    ----

    Ukraine (top) and EU integrated Ukraine (bottom)  Cool 


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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #1

    Post  flamming_python on Sun Dec 15, 2013 3:04 pm

    Cyberspec wrote:Flaming Python's view that Russia should just wait and watch has some merit but is not realistic. Events could force a reaction even if the Rus. government doesn't want to get involved. There are several million Russians in Ukraine who can't just be abandoned and their views ignored. Going by what I'm reading, I seriously doubt that they will accept a forceful change of government in Ukraine. In such a scenario, Russia won't be able to just sit and watch

    All I'm saying is that the EU is doomed to fail in the Ukraine
    Unless the EU is willing to give them 20 billion dollars a year
    In which case the EU itself will be doomed to fail

    So I rather think that the situation will sort itself out, and Russia's best strategy for the moment is pull back its efforts and its capital investments, and watch its opponents exhaust themselves

    Like that adage goes: never interfere when your enemy is busy making a mistake

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #1

    Post  navyfield on Sun Dec 15, 2013 9:11 pm

    My opinion is that yanukovich was tacticaly going forward on the surface but didnt want to sign eu patrnership deal anyway ,and he just waited for the last moment to not do it (during harsh winter)...
    euro-demostrators and ngo-s were quite surprised and it took them some time to get organised...
    now he has to ride the storm (and he had to eventually if he didnt want to follow eu commands), and after winning it ,slowly integrate more and more into russian sphere of influense...

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #1

    Post  Pyrrus on Sun Dec 15, 2013 9:42 pm

    flamming_python wrote:
    So I rather think that the situation will sort itself out, and Russia's best strategy for the moment is pull back its efforts and its capital investments, and watch its opponents exhaust themselves

    Like that adage goes: never interfere when your enemy is busy making a mistake
    there's one 'but'... West made several similar mistakes in which Russia was standing aside and watching doing nothing: Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, now Ukraine. One after another and Western zone of influence is growing and growing despite being the sum of mistakes. No, geopolitics is not like the company. It isn't directly connected with profit/loss way of thinking. Russia realized that only when there was turn for Syria, another Western mistake, and seems to forget or somehow paralyzed facing the Ukraine's case. Another question, out of loss/profit topic is what about Russian speaking people from Ukraine? Should they fall into fascist and Western influence? You ignore the option of partition, but it is out of consideration unless UE direction is put aside. What if Yanukovich will capitulate? He is close to it. This Ukraine story is checkmate for Russia. Russia really can do nothing, just observe its failure. Sorry, but saying it is the victory is wrong. What else is not needed for Russia? Armenia, then Caucasus, then Siberia...? Before you name West losers give me the example of successful 'checkmate' played by Russia against the USA or EU last decade. No, the only Russia can do is defend its zone of influence, and start to renew previous contacts. But vague victories in Nicaragua, Vietnam, Venezuela versus Libya and Ukraine (for now not Syria)? The mediocre score. Sorry, I forgot about such strategic areas like South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The USA and Russia still don't play in the same league.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #1

    Post  Cyberspec on Sun Dec 15, 2013 11:19 pm

    flamming_python wrote:Like that adage goes: never interfere when your enemy is busy making a mistake

    I agree.

    But it can't hurt to be a bit more aggressive, via the media for example, point out what exactly is on offer, expose the more radical opposition for what it is. Fund pro Russian organisations in Eastern Ukraine and the Crimea and so on.


    Pyrrus wrote:The USA and Russia still don't play in the same league.

    True they've been way to reactive and pragmatic, but I don't think they even want to play the same game if you listen to Putin's latest speech.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #1

    Post  GarryB on Mon Dec 16, 2013 9:06 am

    I think the best thing Russia can do right now is let the Ukraine do what it likes.

    If the US had had that attitude in the 1960s regarding Vietnam the US would be a lot more wealthy and a few more Americans would have been alive today.

    The Ukraine is not really worth fighting for... if the Ukraine doesn't see a lot of its trade is with Russia and very little is with the EU and if it wants to select a particular side then that should be the main thing in its head.

    Winning the Ukraine in the long term is like winning custody of a mentally handicapped son with the mental age of 4. You might love him to bits but he is going to cost you most of the good things in life... you wont be able to hold down a proper job and he will be expensive to look after properly.


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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #1

    Post  AlfaT8 on Mon Dec 16, 2013 2:04 pm

    The Hell!!  Suspect 


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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #1

    Post  TR1 on Mon Dec 16, 2013 2:23 pm

    Nobody cares what McCain says anymore.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #1

    Post  Firebird on Mon Dec 16, 2013 5:49 pm

    GarryB wrote:I think the best thing Russia can do right now is let the Ukraine do what it likes.

    If the US had had that attitude in the 1960s regarding Vietnam the US would be a lot more wealthy and a few more Americans would have been alive today.

    The Ukraine is not really worth fighting for... if the Ukraine doesn't see a lot of its trade is with Russia and very little is with the EU and if it wants to select a particular side then that should be the main thing in its head.

    Winning the Ukraine in the long term is like winning custody of a mentally handicapped son with the mental age of 4. You might love him to bits but he is going to cost you most of the good things in life... you wont be able to hold down a proper job and he will be expensive to look after properly.

    Sorry, gotta disagree on that one Garry : )

    The Ukraine, or more importantly MOST of the Ukraine is very important to Russia. Not just in ec and strategic terms but more importantly, in cultural terms. Kiev, the historic centre, the Orthodox church, essay upon essay could be written upon this.

    Wikipedia divides the Ukraine into West, South, East and Central. Ofcourse the East is basically Russian, outside of Russian, I think thats 8m people or so. The Southern Ukr is pretty strongly pro Russian, not far behind the East. I think the South is around 11m? I'm guessing but the Central Ukraine
    is prob around 15m. This goes way West of the Dneiper and includes the all important Kiev etc. Finally, there is the Western Ukraine - including Poles, Germans, Lithuanians, or those of that descent, and an affinity with Catholicism or anti-Russian nonsense.

    Imagine if there was partition, well I think we can say that the S and East would overwhelmingly want to join Russia, or be in a pro-Russian state. The Central area would be even more pro-Russian if the West Ukrainians were jettisoned to form their own (pathetic excuse for... Laughing ) a state. The West Ukrainians would probably then start bickering about whether to join Poland, or be a separate West Ukraine (This was  a problem with the West Ukrainian Republic that lasted a short while in the 20th Century).

    So, I actually wonder about jettisoning in West and keeping South, East and Central. Or central atleast Central to include Kiev and surrounds. Unfortunately the W Ukrainians to be frank can be rather like a virus, infecting culture, truth, economy etc etc.

    Naturally there are mucky areas - Russian enclaves in the West, W Ukr enclaves centrally etc etc.

    But I do wonder, if S, E and Central are retained and form a tight, loyal association with Russia, *maybe* that isnt too bad a state of affairs. Because currently, we have an area of extremists ( only a smallish proportion among 8 or 11m in the West) just ruining it for everyone..

    I'm not sure, because I'd need to see more details. But... maybe there is a case...?

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #1

    Post  Hannibal Barca on Mon Dec 16, 2013 7:01 pm

    Reading the posts of the pro-Russian members here I realize two things:

    -that the otherwise very well educated forum members lack in geopolitics understanding and
    -that due to the devastating defeat of the resolution of the Soviet Union and the events prior and after, pro-East people suffer from inferiority complexes and pessimism.

    About what partition are you talking about? EU is about to collapse! They are not even a formidable opponent but act simply due to panic and desperation hoping
    to export their problems to someone else.

    The strong East nations need to simply tight relations with the key panicking players inside EU (like France, Italy, Spain) and stress the tensions with the rest until
    the collaboration collapse like dominoes.

    It is really easy. You just need to isolate each one and punish him hard enough to discourage him to align with the rest against you ever again. So you break cohesion.
    That's why multi-polar alliances like EU are extremely rare in human history and never last long. It's about the weakest link.

    What happened to Europe was possible only due to the staggering incompetence of the Soviet Union. 30 different nations with 20 difference languages and hundreds of dialects,
    from dozen different races and religions try to create a compact front leaded by the destroyed and vessel-ed by USSR Germany and the biggest country in the world
    take them like a formidable treat!

    I seriously think that at the current point in time Chinese should lead the coalition, while Russians need time to restore their so much needed confidence!
    (and this was clear in Syria where only due to Chinese determination Russia found the courage to stand through the end and gain the first win over US after 3 decades).

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #1

    Post  etaepsilonk on Mon Dec 16, 2013 8:51 pm

    Hannibal Barca wrote:I seriously think that at the current point in time Chinese should lead the coalition, while Russians need time to restore their so much needed confidence!
    (and this was clear in Syria where only due to Chinese determination Russia found the courage to stand through the end and gain the first win over US after 3 decades).

    So what's the difference between Chinese and Americans would be then?
    Let's face it, in terms of imperialistic aspirations and power greed, China is not that much different from US neocons. And it's not a democracy.
    In the multipolar world, NO single country should be leading anything.


    To Firebird:
    Yes I agree with you, that Ukraine is very important for Russia. It has good fertile lands, large well educated and culturally similar population, huge water resources (Dnepr, Dnestr, Bug rivers), and so much estuaries and bays, that if all of these were occupied by ports, they could service a quarter of world's economy, no problem.
    Given all this, it would be pretty foolish for the Russians to just abandon UA, like some members here suggest  unshaven .

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #1

    Post  Hannibal Barca on Mon Dec 16, 2013 9:11 pm

    etaepsilonk wrote:
    Hannibal Barca wrote:I seriously think that at the current point in time Chinese should lead the coalition, while Russians need time to restore their so much needed confidence!
    (and this was clear in Syria where only due to Chinese determination Russia found the courage to stand through the end and gain the first win over US after 3 decades).

    So what's the difference between Chinese and Americans would be then?
    Let's face it, in terms of imperialistic aspirations and power greed, China is not that much different from US neocons. And it's not a democracy.
    In the multipolar world, NO single country should be leading anything.

    China has a history of 3000 years and unlike the other ancient civilizations (Greeks, Italians, Persians, Indians) has a long tradition of relative internal stability and low aggressiveness.
    Not to mention the newer western European countries. So I found it unfair to call China imperialist. You know there is a reason why remained all this centuries united and vastly populated, I am Greek and I know where we suffer.

    So much about democracy compare to happiness. Nevertheless Chinese are more satisfied from their government than any democracy, which is one of the reasons why USSR failed. Moreover, funnily, most western countries technically are still monarchies... so much about western democracy  Razz 

    etaepsilonk
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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #1

    Post  etaepsilonk on Mon Dec 16, 2013 9:18 pm

    To hannie:

    You know, for a Greek, you have a lot of Chinese fanboyism in your posts.  Suspect   Razz 

    Hannibal Barca
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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #1

    Post  Hannibal Barca on Mon Dec 16, 2013 9:49 pm

    Let me clarify. My compatriots are not anti-Chinese. They are simply superficial about what is happening in the world.

    Additional, since modern Greece has very few things to be proud with, they try to gain self-esteem by believing that they are Westerners
    and developed/civilized like all westerners.

    We are arrogant against all eastern Europeans with the exception of Russians and Serbians which we sympathize greatly like brothers and there is a truth in this
    you know, since in Athens live more Eastern girls than native ones if you get what I mean. Is hard to look respectful after this...

    Honestly, we are nor western nor developed  though and we are not really civilized either  Twisted Evil

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #1

    Post  zino on Tue Dec 17, 2013 12:37 am

    So tomorrow Yanuk will go to Moscow. IMO nothing important will happen. You know, the situation is too hot for another 180° turn. An agreement on the modernization of GTS of Ukr is nearly impossible, because in the future could be seized by the 3rd energy package, much better push on South Stream. One seizure may suffice.
    But, but, but... given a discount on gas price,we can hope perhaps for a solution of the BSF impasse. At the moment the modernization of the fleet is impossible, because the Ukr counterpart has to agree on that, ship by ship depending on the capabilities. I think this is the real reason for the not really impressive pace of construction of the project 11356 frigates: they simply cannot be deployed at now. This would not come cheap however.
    Comrades, can you imagine the outrage in Brussels? Two days after McCain the Fleet rose again!
    Fingers crossed.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #1

    Post  GarryB on Tue Dec 17, 2013 9:40 am

    Many of the former Soviet republics were important to Russia, but because they are also democracies that can turn against Russia in one election there is no point building a close relationship in the future with them... it could all be taken away.

    Those of you claiming Russia is not assertive enough... why?

    What has Russia to gain from being the US of the east?

    Especially without the bribe money or bullying military to back it up?

    At the end of the day Russia can not and in my opinion should not try to control the Ukraine.

    If the people of the Ukraine can't be bothered getting off their asses to tell their government they want to retain good relations with Russia then it is not the place of Russia to force the issue. If they did then they would actually be being the boogey man their western opponents claim them to be (and their western opponents actually are BTW).

    The Ukraine is a pretty screwed up country that is not in a very good state.

    Russia will have to spend a small fortune fixing its own problems... how would Russians feel about fixing the problems of the Ukraine too?

    Most of Eastern Europe had better living standards than Russia and Soviet republics... when the cold war ended did those eastern european countries thank Russia?

    Or did they resent Russia?

    What do you think will happen in the Ukraine if they even lift a finger to take territory?

    Very simply I would say Russia should just say to Ukrainian Russians that if they want to, they can have a small plot of land to call their own (Russia has plenty of land) and a job in a factory if they want to leave the Ukraine for Russia.

    Treat them well when they come and more will follow and settle and grow roots.

    Send tanks into the Ukraine and watch the world turn against Russia... the west will love it and support the resistance because it ticks all the boxes for the US. It doesn't involve and can't involve US soldiers, it hurts Russia but does not hurt any country the US feels anything for...

    The path for Russia in my opinion is to state to the Ukraine the basic facts... try to join the EU and joining our economic club becomes impossible.. you can't join every gang... mainly because of the meaning of the word rival.

    The vast majority of trade that the Ukraine has is with Russia.. which could be jeopardised with joining the EU.

    no need for threats or tantrums... the cold hard facts are enough.


    _________________
    “The West won the world not by the superiority of its ideas or values or religion […] but rather by its superiority in applying organized violence. Westerners often forget this fact; non-Westerners never do.”

    ― Samuel P. Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order

    Hannibal Barca
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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #1

    Post  Hannibal Barca on Tue Dec 17, 2013 12:04 pm

    So in other words if the pro-American dogs of West Ukraine decide to join EU, join NATO and use MOTOR SICH and ANTONOV and Ukrainian soil to harm and if possible submit Russia then the best Russia should do is to advice Russians in Ukraine to leave their homes and settle somewhere in Siberia where there is plenty of land in abundance and probably let the food hot in the oven to welcome uncle Sam's soldiers.

    That's why New Zealand will never rule the world  Laughing 

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