Kimppis wrote:You mean 6 regiments of Su-57s by 2030?

Hmmm... so there should be more than 600 new 'Flankers' by the end of 2025? I mean the combined total of Su-30SMs, Su-34s, Su-35s and Su-57s? 200-300 Su-30SMs, 200 Su-34s and more than 200 Su-35s and Su-57s (combined).

I said exactly : to receive the new Su-57 regiments in the period 2020-2030

__and beyond__ , depending if VKS gets 4 , 5 or 6 SU-57 regiments

And Su-57 is not a "Flanker"

It depends of the rate of Su-57 planes handed over.

You need at least one dozen for training/test in Astrakhan & Lipestk (excluding prototypes)

This dozen is supossed to be deployed in 2019 and 2020

Then , if KnaAPO can hand over 10 planes per year , in 2030 it will have 4 regiments

If KnaAPO can produce 12 planes per year , in 2030 you will have 5 SU-57 regiments (and time enough for rebuilt 5 airbases and train the pilots)

The 6th after 2030

About the Su-35 , this year and the next , VKS will receive only 10 because China gets other 10

In 2019 - 2020 the production should be 14 Russia and 6 Indonesia , then VKS in 2020 will have 7 squadrons of Su-35 and other 20 planes (Kubinka, Lipestk, Akhtubinsk)

Later, 2021-2025 , is enough with one squadron of 12 planes per year for get the 12 squadrons in 6 regiments. The other 8 produced each year will be exported

If VKS wants the 7th regiment in North ,Central district or Kaliningrad is unkonow today, but is possible after 2025

The Su-30SM will reach 100 planes this year and 116 planes in 2018 (88 VKS and 28 Navy)

Navy needs more planes, it was said "about 50" in 2020

This means navy need 10 in 2019 and 10 in 2020 for get 4 squadrons (48)

Keep this rate, in 2025 Navy will have about 100 (one regiment each fleet)

The VKS only need about 8 planes in period 2019-2025 for reach 145 planes , enough for 4 regments , the "two seaters" of 6 SU-35 regiments and 20 planes more (Kubinka, Lipesk Astrakhan)

This means 18 SU-30SM per year , similar rate than now. The rest of production of IAPO can be exported

About the Su-34 , this year will be 107 in VKS and the next 123. A new contract for 3 more regiments of Su-34M , at rate 12 per year 2019-2024 will send the total to about 195-200 about 2025. NAPO will also export other 6-8 planes per year

The SU-30M2 will go to training units after Su-35 regiments get their Su-30SM "two seaters"

This means to receive 50 planes in 2018:

10 Su-35

16 Su-30SM

16 Su-34

8 Mig-35

2019 and 2020 58 planes per year:

6 SU-57

14 Su-35

18 SU-30SM

12 Su-34M

8 Mig-35

2021-2025 54 planes per year:

12 Su-57

12 Su-35

18 SU-30SM

12 Su-34M

After 2025 :

12-18 Su-57 per year

And perhaps other regiment of Su-35

Replacement for Mig-31BM starts 2030

Replacement for Su-25SM/SM(3) starts 2030

Then the total will be in 2025:

200 Su-34

240-250 Su-30SM (140-150 VKS & 100 in Navy)

166 Su-35

24 SU-27SM(3)

75 Su-57

705-720 planes

630-640 "Flankers"

In 2030:

200 SU-34

240-250 Su-30SM (140-150 VKS & 100 in Navy)

166-190 SU-35 (6 - 7 regiments)

135-165 Su-57 (5 regiments if 6th, then after 2030)

740-805 planes