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    Ukrainian Aviation Industry: Discussion

    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible on Sat Nov 23, 2019 2:06 am

    GarryB wrote:
    It's impossible to stop all trade with Russia, no matter what Ukrainian nationalists wish & say.

    Of course that is true, but you are not talking about smuggling or sending money home from Russia to family in the Ukraine... you are talking about the Russian government investing their money in factories and people in a foreign country, which... if detected would likely lead to the Ukrainian government seizing the funds and any hardware brought in from Russia or some other country... Russia would lose money and end up with nothing but egg on their faces... and for what... to save a company that has spent the last 20 odd years trying to screw Russia out of as much money as they could.

    Antonov... as a company has been a pain in the ass for Russia for most of the post cold war period making all sorts of demands of ownership of Soviet designed aircraft... they really have been a pain in the ass... now of course the workers can't be blamed for all the shit the management have put Russia through, but at the end of the day it is the company they used to work for... unless they moved to the east of the country to support the ukrainian people wanting to continue to speak Russian, or moved to Russia to find work they are of no interest to Russia because they are supporting the nazi regime in Kiev.... so fuckem.

    Russia should not only not spend a cent in the Ukraine, they should actively block their border with the Ukraine to maximise the problems of the illegal regime in the Kiev as much as they can as a clear message to the Baltic countries and indeed Belarus that if you want to abuse your citizens for speaking Russian then you need to turn your back completely on Russia... we wont invade you... but we wont trade with you either. Earn your money elsewhere.

    yes, agreed 100%.

    These pissant countries rely on Russian market yet will spit all over Russia. And Russian government is completely inept by allowing this. Seize their assets in Russia, and stop all trade with them entirely. Screw them.
    kvs
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    Post  kvs on Sat Nov 23, 2019 3:51 am

    Antonov's claim on Soviet IP is utter BS. When Russia covered the USSR's debts it should have claimed all of the USSR IP as a shared
    entity. That is no BS claims by former USSR republics to ownership of USSR IP. But in principle Russia has every right to the USSR
    IP regardless where USSR companies ended up.

    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Sat Nov 23, 2019 4:06 am

    The Ukrainian state won't last for much longer, & a coming civil war be will split up- with parts going to Poland, Hungary, Romania & Russia. As part of economic help, aviation plants will be given more orders.
    Rodion_Romanovic
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    Post  Rodion_Romanovic on Sat Nov 23, 2019 9:37 am

    Tsavo Lion wrote:The Ukrainian state won't last for much longer, & a coming civil war be will split up- with parts going to Poland, Hungary, Romania & Russia. As part of economic help, aviation plants will be given more orders.
    Even if it was true it is  still in the future (maybe 2 years, maybe 5 or maybe even more than 20.
    What should Russia do, give them money without even getting a single part in return (because it was the Ukraine that stopped cooperation with Russia on the aircraft and ship building industries, among the rest)?

    There are quite a bit of industries in need of new orders in Russia, before them. As I said before, Aviakor in Samara is one of them. It will be absurd to spend money in a foreign place while leaving Russian industries in dismay.
    And it is not that they are in better geographically positioned location to serve as MRO center for Africa or the middle East, btw.

    Furthermore for sure, even the current Russophobic crazies were ousted from the control of the Ukraine, Russia will not want to depend again on the whims of the Ukrainian government for their aviation industry, as the experience from the 90s and early 2000s has reached them.

    Until Kiev and Kharkov are in a foreign country, Russia  should not invest a ruble.

    Edit:
    The only thing that Russia could do is selling them components and parts, if antonov manage to sign a contract with some African or middle East country, for some of their products.
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Sat Nov 23, 2019 9:10 pm

    What should Russia do, give them money without even getting a single part in return..
    of course not, & never advocated that.
    However,even before or w/o the implosion, if/when relations improve, there'll be no turning back on more trade, investment & cooperation, since the alternative is economic collapse, impoverishment & deeper colonization by the West, followed by Russian armed intervention & resulting fratricide.
    https://iz.ru/946661/2019-11-23/savchenko-predrekla-ischeznovenie-ukrainy-v-2023-godu


    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Sat Nov 23, 2019 9:43 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : add link)
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Sun Nov 24, 2019 5:24 am

    They had a civil war when the US coup succeeded... it didn't really tear the country in to pieces... it drew a line in terms of parts that didn't care about new laws banning the Russian language or even supporting the ban, and those for which such a law was unacceptable.

    What happens in the future wont happen quickly and unless Russia tries to absorb the so called pro Russian side I doubt other countries will try to do the same... which is a good reason for Russia to not try to entice parts of the Ukraine to join the RF.

    The fact of the matter is there is no pro russian ukraine.... there are just people who speak russian and don't want to be forced to stop and are prepared to fight those trying to make them stop... it is Kiev saying these people are russians or pro russia, but in fact they are just anti kiev... which is perfectly understandable... they didn't vote for a coup... this is an American imposed situation... would you comply with a government that was not elected by the people but was imposed by a foreign power that clearly does not have your interests in mind?

    Any breakup of the Ukraine will take several years, and with such a breakup it is likely to take some time longer while the west determines just how much Russia is to blame for it all... and then when things settle and the dead are buried you really have to ask yourself what is going to be left worth saving... I would suggest not much at the moment and even less later on.

    Right now Antonov is competition for Russian aircraft companies... not much competition of course but still an alternative brand that is fighting for the same dollars the Russians are to support former soviet aircraft operating around the world in the hope of securing contracts for replacement aircraft...

    Antonov is not in the eastern region of the ukraine and is unlikely to become part of the bits likely to actually be friendly to Russia so it really isn't going to be a problem anyway... most of the better workers are probably already in Russia or the west anyway.

    If there is a Russian armed intervention then that will likely trigger an armed NATO intervention too... which is really not in Russian interests to have a Kosovo on its border. There is nothing there for Russia to fight for... anybody who identifies as Russian rather than Ukrainian or think they are both the same can move to Russia if they choose... they can already get Russian passports if they want them.
    Rodion_Romanovic
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    Post  Rodion_Romanovic on Sun Nov 24, 2019 9:43 am

    Tsavo Lion wrote:
    What should Russia do, give them money without even getting a single part in return..
    of course not, & never advocated that.
    However,even before or w/o the implosion, if/when relations improve, there'll be no turning back on more trade, investment & cooperation, since the alternative is economic collapse, impoverishment & deeper colonization by the West, followed by Russian armed intervention & resulting fratricide.
    https://iz.ru/946661/2019-11-23/savchenko-predrekla-ischeznovenie-ukrainy-v-2023-godu
    The problem is that already in better times (e.g. the 90s and the 2000s they always used delivery of critical parts for the Russian industries as a political tool and blackmail, even with so called pro Russian leadership (that was that only in name).

    It is like you have a small company that produces some components needed for a larger company elsewhere  And because of the behaviour of your small company (or of the regional administration where your company is located), the larger company cannot complete their products and sell them, with loss of money, credibility and problems for their customers...


    Do you believe that eventually they will not do everything that is possible to replace your components in their design (even if it is very expensive and time consuming in the short and middle term)? If you are an industry you want suppliers that produce  the components they need to an acceptable standard of quality at an acceptable price, and are reliable in the delivery. And if you are a customer you want to get what you paid without having to be blackmailed by the mayor of the town where the small company is.

    So Russia already went over this point. They already spent a lot of money to replace or to source elsewhere most of the components previously produced in the Ukraine. Why come back now?

    Yes, there are still several products and plants in the Ukraine that would be useful to Russia (not fundamental, as it was before, but merely useful).
    However basing their designs or plans on such components would be stupid, since they cannot guarantee the delivery.

    One of the big mistakes that Russia did in the past was finance Ukrainian industries and do not establish who owns the IP for the design.

    The only use that the Ukrainian industries may have would be as "contractors" for some design work, like Boeing and Airbus do in Moscow or Rolls-Royce does in India, etc.

    In that case, however it would be better and safer to establish a small office somewhere in Russia (e.g Rostov, Saratov, Crimea, or wherever). Incidentally, this is also what China is doing or trying to do, creating some design office in China that host former Antonov or ivchenko progress/motor sich employees. And Russia already welcomed many engineers and technicians from the Ukraine in the past five years.

    As for the plants, if they were reliable, they could be tasked to providing some parts under order, but they are not and they have never been modernised. All that they can currently do is produce Soviet equipment, and the assembly plants are not currently capable of serial production anyway.

    As I said before, if antonov finds for themselves customers in Africa or in the middle East for their products ( and they are not so stupid about trying to replace all the Russian equipment with American or French one (more expensive and that possibly could require recertification), Russia can sell them components, and even provide equipment to modernise their plants. Of course all of this behind payments of parts upfront, no loans for Ukrainians available anymore (even if Russia is at the same time providing loans to Turkey, Vietnam, and the like). They had their many opportunities to be treated like best friends and they wasted all of them.

    And about An 132, 178, 140, etc  being competitors to Russian products...maybe it is true, but they are at least one generation older technology and anyway Russia is not America or French in having to destroy other countries industry. Ukrainians are very good by themselves on such matter (I mean, destroying their own industry and economy).
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Sun Nov 24, 2019 10:25 pm

    The problem is that already in better times (e.g....

    Agree... Russia doesn't need to and shouldn't sabotage the Ukrainian economy, or try to steal what is left, but it is not in their interests to help it as it is at the moment.


    As I have said before if they apologise for all the shit they have said and prosecute those who have actually committed crimes and fire the majority of those in power and in opposition that supported criminal activity and started afresh then Russia might consider restoring ties and links... and it would certainly give the Ukraine the best chance of what an American politician might call a reset or restart... the alternative is to continue down the same path to economic isolation and eventual collapse and perhaps its neighbours might want to pick up the tab to fix them and maybe not... it will probably be expensive... look at what happened to West Germany when it tried to "Fix" East Germany... it took 30 years and they still are not the same... they never will be because they have a different culture and different morals and ideals.

    If you want a country to help you destroy a country then call the US or France of the UK... they are experts... if you want to fix a country and rebuild it... ask Syria and I think they will suggest Russia for the job... if they are interested of course... they wont just take on any problem... they are not the self appointed world police after all.
    Rodion_Romanovic
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    Post  Rodion_Romanovic on Sat Nov 30, 2019 5:05 am

    https://www.unian.net/m/economics/transport/10771283-glava-antonova-zayavil-ob-ugroze-ostanovki-predpriyatiya-iz-za-starogo-oborudovaniya.html

    Source UNIAN (Ukrainian Independent Information Agency of News).



    The head of "Antonov" said the threat of stopping the enterprise due to old equipment


    November 27, 2019


    Also, Aleksandr Donets noted a lack of funds for updating, as there is no customer.



    Depreciation of fixed assets of the state-owned enterprise Antonov is 80%, which in case of inaction can lead to the shutdown of the enterprise in 5-7 years.


    According to a UNIAN correspondent, this was stated by the president of Antonov, Alexander Donets. "We have a depreciation of fixed assets of 80% in Antonov. Another 5-7 years - that's all," he said. According to Donets, the main part of the depreciation of fixed assets falls on the production enterprise - Antonov Serial Plant. Donets also noted a lack of funds for updating, as there is no customer. “We don’t even have an internal market. We haven’t received a single order from the Ministry of Defense, the Border Guard Service, or the emergency services. We have five aircraft in the assembly shops. But there is no filling and no customer. Are they needed? I think we need “The president flies and he likes it,” he said.

    As UNIAN reported earlier, Antonov can complete the process of import substitution of Russian components for An-148, An-158 and transport An-178 aircraft in two years, but only if the state has financing of $ 201 million. Help UNIAN. SE Antonov is the largest and only producer of transport, passenger and special-purpose aircraft in Ukraine. Among the most recognizable developments of the enterprise are the An-32, An-148, An-158, An-74, An-124, An-70 and An-225 aircraft.



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