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    INF Treaty - coming to the end of its life

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    Arrow


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    Post  Arrow Sat Oct 20, 2018 11:44 am

    hese days with S-400 and even upgraded S-300s able to engage targets moving at 4.8km/s and 2.8km/s they should be pretty much OK in terms of stopping enemy missiles. wrote:

    Big S-300 missiles can not intercept maneuvering warheads. Only 9M96 is very manoeuvrable.
    GunshipDemocracy
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    Post  GunshipDemocracy Sat Oct 20, 2018 9:46 pm

    Arrow wrote:

    Big S-300 missiles can not intercept  maneuvering warheads. Only 9M96 is very manoeuvrable.


    if you say so...but read first

    9M82M - anti-aircraft guided missile 9K81M anti- aircraft missile system Antey-2500 . The range of the rocket was significantly increased to 200 km. The rocket is capable of hitting targets, maneuvering with overloads up to 30g. The maximum airspeed was also increased to 2600 m / s [5] .



    +++

    Damage range (for S-300VM):
    Aerodynamic objectives: 200 (250) [4] km
    Ballistic targets up to 40 km
    Lesion height:
    Aerodynamic objectives: 25 m - 30 km
    Ballistic targets: 1-30 km
    Maximum speed of a ballistic target: 4500 m / s
    Maximum acceleration of target maneuver (when a 9M82 M missile is hit ): 30 g [5]
    Minimum effective target reflecting surface: 0.02 m², for C-300B 0.05 m².
    Maximum launch range of a ballistic missile to capture: 2500 km
    The number of simultaneously tracked goals:
    Aerodynamic goals: 24
    Ballistic targets up to 16
    Rate of fire (from one launcher / from various PU): 1.5 / 0 s
    Number of missiles simultaneously aimed at 1 target: up to 4
    Deployment time: 5 minutes
    Time to prepare the rocket for launch: 7.5 seconds
    The probability of hitting a target when using one missile defense (for S-300V) [6]
    BR type "Lance" one Zour 9M83: 0.5-0.65
    Aircraft One Zour 9M83: 0.7-0.9
    the head of the "Pershing" rocket of one Zur 9M82: 0.4-0.6
    SRAM missiles of one Zur 9M82: 0.5-0.7


    https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%A1-300%D0%92%D0%9C




    PapaDragon
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    Post  PapaDragon Sat Oct 20, 2018 11:54 pm


    The deed is done thumbsup

    Trump ‘confirms’ he’s pulling US out of nuclear deal with Russia

    https://www.rt.com/usa/441841-trump-nuclear-deal-russia-pullout/

    Time to start installing extra stage on Iskanders, Kinzhals and Zircons and mounting them on trucks

    Chop, chop boys, there is 30 years worth of work to catch up on Cool
    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible Sun Oct 21, 2018 12:11 am

    I say this will benefit Russia more than US.

    The missiles are already made and ready and used.  Now they just need to create ground based launchers and that is it.  They end up with the advantage.  Especially in the arctic.

    Key word though was mentioned - China.

    US pulled out cause they knew that no one else followed this crappy treaty anyway and that nations like China, India, Pakistan, NK, Iran, etc have so many medium range missiles, there is nothing they can do about it.  It was one of those "if they can have them, how come we cant?"

    Now Russia will shrug its shoulders, spend maybe a $ billion more, and get a ton of ground based launchers for 2,500 - 5,000km range missiles.  Hell, Russia could just re-instate SS-20 and that would probably make US shit its pants (again).

    While it sucks that US will now have the ability to strike deep within Russia through Poland, Lithania, Estonia, etc, it gives Russia the ability to strike western Europe from Kaliningrad and Northern Canada from Arctic. This just means though, KBP may get even more contracts to build even better PANTSIR systems to protect against BM's.
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    Post  LMFS Sun Oct 21, 2018 12:39 am

    miketheterrible wrote:While it sucks that US will now have the ability to strike deep within Russia through Poland, Lithania, Estonia, etc, it gives Russia the ability to strike western Europe from Kaliningrad and Northern Canada from Arctic. This just means though, KBP may get even more contracts to build even better PANTSIR systems to protect against BM's.

    Another lovely present from US to Europe, another bullseye in our head as a prize for serving their geopolitical games... its outraging
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    Post  PapaDragon Sun Oct 21, 2018 1:51 am

    miketheterrible wrote:.......
    While it sucks that US will now have the ability to strike deep within Russia through Poland, Lithania, Estonia, etc, it gives Russia the ability to strike western Europe from Kaliningrad and Northern Canada from Arctic. This just means though, KBP may get even more contracts to build even better PANTSIR systems to protect against BM's.


    If anything this means that Russia will no longer need to stuff Kaliningrad with short-range missiles.

    Now they can park intermediate range missiles along entire western perimeter and have whole Europe on the nuclear platter.

    Also, they can clean up entire US Western seaboard from Kamchatka.

    Japan, Middle East and even China (should need arise) go without saying.

    To say nothing of countless new options for coastal anti-ship missiles. Think several Kinzhals mounted on simple Topol booster stage.
    They couldn't do stuff like that before because of INF treaty. But they will be able to do it now. Pacific and Atlantic just became shooting galleries for Russian Navy coastal units.

    And yes, this whole Kabuki theatre is definitely about China. They want to have loads of missiles pointed at China from Japan and Korea and to install them under excuse of them supposedly​ being intended for Russia.

    Party that is getting screwed most in this Second Summer of Love is definitely Europe.
    But they did volunteer for the job so it's all good... Cool
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    Post  GarryB Sun Oct 21, 2018 5:22 am

    With a 5,000km range they could put IRBMs up in the northern military bases they are opening up... they should be able to reach canadian and US targets... and do so in 5-10 minutes... an excellent option for taking down airfields and major SAM sites and radar stations in the first few minutes of war... clear the way for the ICBMs and SLBMs and of course the cruise missile carrying bombers... not to mention clean up any AEGIS class cruisers in the Arctic ocean on ABM patrol...
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    Post  hoom Sun Oct 21, 2018 5:34 am

    There is one ray of light here
    Trump wrote:Unless Russia comes to us and China comes to us and they all come to us and they say, ‘Let’s all of us get smart and let’s none of us develop those weapons,’ but if Russia’s doing it and if China’s doing it and we’re adhering to the agreement, that’s unacceptable.
    Russia has been pushing for a renegotiation for years with US flat rejecting the possibility, so having the US President suggest renegotiation as a solution is arguably a huge advance  Suspect

    Some kind of New INF treaty incorporating other nuke powers & closing loopholes in the current treaty could be a really good outcome.
    Of course the idea that the US would actually be willing to make the kind of concessions necessary to make that work is sadly almost certainly an impossible dream... pwnd


    Related note: recently Charly015 linked to this article https://tass.ru/politika/5632702
    which has a quote from Rybakov the Deputy Foreign Minister
    googletranslate wrote:“A few days ago there was a glimpse of the message that Russia, after a long denial, had allegedly acknowledged the existence of a rocket, which we are accused of violating the treaty,” said a high-ranking diplomat.

    "This is absolutely not true. We never denied that certain work in the field of improving our missile weapons is underway. But the problem is that the 9M729 missile has never been tested for a range prohibited by the agreement,"
    That's potentially an admission of an INF breach though since range for a Cruise Missile is defined as 'how far it would go with full fuel in its standard config'.
    'The range its been tested at' is only the definition for Ballistic Missiles Neutral


    Edit:
    To say nothing of countless new options for coastal anti-ship missiles. Think several Kinzhals mounted on simple Topol booster stage.
    Russia can do that now, INF doesn't apply to anti-ship missiles as long as they don't have anti-land capability.
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    Post  Mindstorm Sun Oct 21, 2018 9:43 am

    Well , as said some years ago, US authorities was attempting since a decade to demolish INF, using -as usual in theirs latest foreign policy - the typical mountains of lies and totally absurd and unsubstantiated allegations to justify theirs unreliability in the compliance with the agreements that they themselves had pushed Rolling Eyes

    For theirs unluck i was far from the only to have realized this obvious dynamic several years ago and the unavoidable result will be only that them, one more time, will find themselves with the short end of the stick both in the technological that in the economic implications of the thing.

    The only enormous difference now is that ,to the contrary of end of '80 years there will no be any kind of traitor hand ,in our side, aiding them to pull out of the deep hole where them will find trapped....to the contrary.

    Rocket 15Ж57, of middle of '80 years, from Chukotka was capable to strike from there literally any single cm of US soil - from West to East side -, over the ocean was so crushingly behind under a strict technological point of view to be forced to place......subsonic cruise missiles.....on the other place of the balance to provide some type of makeshift cover for the begging to elimitate ,through diplomatic measures the immense menace represented by of our РСД-10.  

    When them will realize that the huge technological gap, in ballistic missile field, in all those years even greatly widened and that the implications will literally uproot from the foundation also theirs surface and under-water Navy structure the situation will be already frozen ; the economical repercussions for them will be of epic proportions.

    Well as often it is said: "Never stop an enemy in the course of making an huge mistake"  Cool
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    Post  Arrow Sun Oct 21, 2018 9:51 am


    So Mindstorm what will Russia's response to US withdrawal from the INF Treaty be?
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    Post  zg18 Sun Oct 21, 2018 11:27 am

    Mindstorm wrote:Rocket 15Ж57, of middle of '80 years, from Chukotka was capable to strike from there literally any single cm of US soil - from West to East side -, over the ocean was so crushingly behind under a strict technological point of view to be forced to place......subsonic cruise missiles.....on the other place of the balance to provide some type of makeshift cover for the begging to elimitate ,through diplomatic measures the immense menace represented by of our РСД-10.  

    True, US signed INF for this reason above. It was massively beneficial for US but with China in the picture everything has turned upside down for them.

    My hunch is that US doesn`t actually want to collapse INF but wants to force China to be part of it.

    The way they are doing it is incredibly stupid, they should be honest and public about it.
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    Post  PapaDragon Sun Oct 21, 2018 12:40 pm

    zg18 wrote:......

    True, US signed INF for this reason above. It was massively beneficial for US but with China in the picture everything has turned upside down for them.

    My hunch is that US doesn`t actually want to collapse INF but wants to force China to be part of it.

    The way they are doing it is incredibly stupid, they should be honest and public about it.


    Correct, this is exceptionally stupid way of going about it

    Russia gains nothing from getting China to join and they now have option of saving huge amounts of cash by reintroducing intermediate range missiles instead of hassling with surface navy

    USA also forgot that stationing nuclear missiles in Europe with be politically way more difficult than during Cold War, Poland being exception but it's nothing new since they have always been voluntary ground zero in any future US-RU conflict
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    Post  George1 Sun Oct 21, 2018 2:42 pm

    US withdrawal from INF Treaty will trigger arms race, senior MP warns

    According to Shamanov, Trump’s statement on leaving the INF Treaty was not surprising for Russia

    MOSCOW, October 21. /TASS/. Washington’s withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF Treaty) will spark an arms race, but Russia’s response would be adequate and in the framework of its financial potential, Russian State Duma (lower house of parliament) Defense Committee Chairman and former Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Airborne Troops Vladimir Shamanov said.

    "Short-an intermediate-range missiles are a tactical area of confrontation. This [the US withdrawal from the INF Treaty] will lead to a further arms race," Shamanov said. "We have worked out some measures and the president in his address to the Federal Assembly made it clear that we would not sit idle," he said.

    "We have made a number of measures of an organizing and scientific and technical character, the response will be absolutely adequate and in the framework of our financial capabilities, that’s enough. We won’t allow them to blackmail us," the politician warned.

    According to Shamanov, Trump’s statement on leaving the INF Treaty was not surprising for Russia. "They rejected our proposals to sit down at the negotiating table and discuss all the claims [to Russia on the INF Treaty]," Shamanov said, noting that Washington’s claims are "absolutely inconsistent." Russian President Vladimir Putin, Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov have stated this many times, he noted.

    Meanwhile, Russia also accuses the US of violating the arms control treaty, but Washington tries not to notice its founded charges. "That’s why the only way to solve this issue is to sit down and hold talks. Everything else is just blackmail," he said.

    "Certainly, this [the US withdrawal from the INF Treaty] will add some instability, what won’t improve the situation in the world," the lawmaker said. Speaking on whether there is still a chance to draw up a new treaty, he said: "We have tried. The ball is in their court."

    On Saturday, US President Donald Trump said that Washington would withdraw from the INF Treaty because Russia was violating the terms of the agreement. At the same time, he did not rule out signing a new agreement on intermediate-range nuclear forces with Moscow and Beijing if Russia and China provide guarantees of halting the production of such weapons.

    According to the US data, which was shared with NATO allies, Russia allegedly started deploying its newest missiles 9M729, what Washington claims is a violation of the 1987 treaty. Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said the US accusations that the 9M729 range exceeds the limits stipulated by the treaty have not been proven.

    The INF Treaty was signed between the Soviet Union and the United States on December 8, 1987 in Washington, DC. The US accused Russia of violating the agreement for the first time in July 2014. Later, Washington repeated the claims on many occasions, while Moscow rejected them, also accusing the US of developing missiles, which are tested at a range prohibited by the treaty and deploying missile defense elements, which may be used for launching short- and intermediate-range missiles.


    More:
    http://tass.com/politics/1027064
    AlfaT8
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    Post  AlfaT8 Sun Oct 21, 2018 4:08 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:
    The deed is done thumbsup

    Trump ‘confirms’ he’s pulling US out of nuclear deal with Russia

    https://www.rt.com/usa/441841-trump-nuclear-deal-russia-pullout/

    Time to start installing extra stage on Iskanders, Kinzhals and Zircons and mounting them on trucks

    Chop, chop boys, there is 30 years worth of work to catch up on Cool

    Rumor has it that the extra stage Iskander is already deployed, Kinzal might actually be another extra stage Iskander and Zircon in already compatible with Club-M/K platforms.
    So putting these missiles on trucks would just be a formality.

    I am more interested in ground launched Kh-101/2s
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    Post  miketheterrible Sun Oct 21, 2018 4:11 pm

    I'm thinking that would have been the cheap/effective option. Secondary booster for Iskander. It already flies at Mach 6. Add secondary booster so it can fly upwards to 2,000km.....

    Yes, putting Kh-101 in ground based missile launches would also be interesting.
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    Post  AlfaT8 Sun Oct 21, 2018 5:05 pm

    I forgot to add the possibility of a new Iskander-E2 to be available for export.
    Tighten up those CEPs and quasi trajectories.
    And add an extra missile.


    Last edited by AlfaT8 on Sun Oct 21, 2018 6:24 pm; edited 1 time in total
    zg18
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    Post  zg18 Sun Oct 21, 2018 5:53 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:Correct, this is exceptionally stupid way of going about it

    Russia gains nothing from getting China to join and they now have option of saving huge amounts of cash by reintroducing intermediate range missiles instead of hassling with surface navy

    Yep, fleet of SRBMs and MRBMs will save a lot of money for Russia medium-to-long term, it will need less conventional forces but that will be better funded/equiped/trained overall and more expeditionary oriented, rather than home defence.
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    Post  LMFS Mon Oct 22, 2018 12:38 am

    From Martyanov's blog:

    http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2018/10/more-iskanders-and-s-500-i-guess-for.html
    A. Martyanov wrote:
    Isn't the US in better position because they can deploy thousands of
    nuclear armed missiles in Europe but Russia can not do the same in
    Mexico? It means that Russia will have far less time to react to first
    strike nuclear attack compared to the US. Just like in the Cold War.


    No, it is not--one of the major reasons why US us exiting INF Treaty is a dawning realization that warfare changed, namely on March 1st. Of course, people who make decision of exiting INF Treaty are in it for some significant domestic purposes such as "revitalization" of Military Industrial Complex but this boat sailed long ago because, as I said, the gap is not just qualitative but generational. As per reaction time--modern early warning systems allow to see launches practically in real time.. So, as I said, most of the US behavior under Trump and last two (Obama, W) administrations are, increasingly, signs of American decline and last attempt to increase chaos in global system in an attempt to find ways for cure from implosion.

    Same for China. I heard that the US is dropping the treaty due to issues with China too. The US can deploy such weapons near China but China can not deploy weapons in Mexico or Canada.


    Again, what people miss often, despite China's gigantic economy (this one is very real, unlike American virtual one), China's nuclear (largely, deterrent forces) are nowhere near those of Russia. It is literally an issue of two different universes. Russia today can strike the US proper even conventionally with decapitating salvo(s)--this capability will continue to grow , once more Avangards. Petrels et all arrive. China doesn't have such capabilities and, in fact, it is China where the US will try to realistically push since US has an overwhelming advantage over China in the ocean, primarily due to US Navy's world class massive submarine force. China has realistically nothing to counterbalance it with. She is trying to catch up--it is not easy.

    Regarding US intentions to force a new unilateral disarmament of Russia:

    You, Russia, reduce weapons which you have in exchange for us, America, reducing weapons which we don't have.
    lol1 lol1

    Sorry US, no Gorbachev now to give a hand this time
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    Post  PapaDragon Mon Oct 22, 2018 12:47 am


    ...once more Avangards. Petrels et all arrive...

    This is supposed to be Buravestnik.

    About translating it's name, while it does refer to a bird which in English is called "Storm Petrel" that bird's name in Russian literally means "Storm Harbinger" which is pretty damn appropriate.

    Probably main reason why that name was chosen by public during online vote.

    Just pointing it out...
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    Post  GarryB Mon Oct 22, 2018 1:18 am

    Actually a two stage Iskander with a range of 2,000 to 3,000km would be useful in the Russian far east to destroy any US ABM system based in Alaska... and it could also be used against the Northern Pacific too with its new anti ship capacity...

    BTW an extra booster rocket or extra small stage for a Kh-101 or Kh-102 would boost the range beyond 5,500km so they could have used ground launched models even with the INF treaty in place.

    Just carrying more fuel would not increase the price per missile by very much and a larger, more powerful solid booster rocket motor could be used to get it airborne and on it way...

    If the US wants to include China then all of NATO needs to be included too... there is no point in tying Russian hands if France or the UK could develop IRBMs too...

    Personally I think Russia would be better off without it.

    I suspect the real motivation is not Chinese capability, but new Russian hypersonic technology that they want to get included in the ban... so screw them.... Cool
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    Post  GunshipDemocracy Mon Oct 22, 2018 1:35 am

    I am surprised to be honest what UK gov supported withdrawing USA form INF What a Face What a Face What a Face OK colonies and territories like Poland or Romania is understandable. Nobody cares for them . Own comprador elites neither.

    But UK?! they will be among first to receive couple of Kinzahls/Avangads.


    PapaDragon wrote:
    This is supposed to be Buravestnik.

    About translating it's name, while it does refer to a bird which in English is called "Storm Petrel" that bird's name in Russian literally means "Storm Harbinger" which is pretty damn appropriate.

    Probably main reason why that name was chosen by public during online vote.

    Just pointing it out...

    Actually it would not be "harbinger " but final act russia russia russia



    Last edited by GunshipDemocracy on Mon Oct 22, 2018 1:57 am; edited 1 time in total
    GunshipDemocracy
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    Post  GunshipDemocracy Mon Oct 22, 2018 1:52 am

    GarryB wrote:Actually a two stage Iskander with a range of 2,000 to 3,000km would be useful in the Russian far east to destroy any US ABM system based in Alaska... and it could also be used against the Northern Pacific too with its new anti ship capacity...


    Why? Rubezh/Avangard have same range. And already exist.  On pic Rubezh vs Yars comparison.

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    If the US wants to include China then all of NATO needs to be included too... there is no point in tying Russian hands if France or the UK could develop IRBMs too...
    I can see that you dont understand promoting of western values and democracy  lol1  lol1  lol1



    Personally I think Russia would be better off without it.
    Not necessarily. There will be always higher costs for arms race then without.
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    Post  LMFS Mon Oct 22, 2018 2:34 am

    GarryB wrote:Actually a two stage Iskander with a range of 2,000 to 3,000km would be useful in the Russian far east to destroy any US ABM system based in Alaska... and it could also be used against the Northern Pacific too with its new anti ship capacity...
    I suspect the Iskander can reach longer than 500 km with current external dimensions, but we will see. Otherwise you would need to update TELs.
    Updated SS-20 coming back too I guess, pretty sure MoD has been preparing for this for a good while.

    I suspect the real motivation is not Chinese capability, but new Russian hypersonic technology that they want to get included in the ban... so screw them....  Cool
    Sure they want to exchange the new Russian weapons for essentially nothing. Bolton can buy something fancy in the duty free, otherwise he will come back to Washington with empty hands I'm afraid  lol1

    About translating it's name, while it does refer to a bird which in English is called "Storm Petrel" that bird's name in Russian literally means "Storm Harbinger" which is pretty damn appropriate.
    Great name thumbsup

    I am surprised to be honest what UK gov supported withdrawing USA form INF What a Face What a Face What a Face OK colonies and territories like Poland or Romania is understandable. Nobody cares for them . Own comprador elites neither.

    But UK?! they will be among first to receive couple of Kinzahls/Avangads.
    The mental decay is complete when not even self preservation instincts survive. I wonder what is the advantage this smart Williamson is seeing in his country being now under threat of newer, cheaper and abundant Russian MRBMs
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    Post  hoom Mon Oct 22, 2018 3:26 am

    I am surprised to be honest what UK gov supported withdrawing USA form INF
    They've been clearly more rabidly into the whole anti-russia thing than just about any country, it should be no surprise that they'll be all for this.

    Probably creaming themselves for at least an AEGIS ashore on UK territory & a bunch of Intermediate missile bases because 'security' & logistics/base support contracts.

    If the US wants to include China then all of NATO needs to be included too... there is no point in tying Russian hands if France or the UK could develop IRBMs too...
    Agreed.
    I'd expect Russia to want ship & air launched Intermediate missiles included too as well as clean up of the definition of Cruise Missile around armed drones, China would demand India/Pakistan & Japan/Korea/Taiwan be included, Israel & US will demand Iran be included, Iran will demand only if Israel & Arab League be included...

    There is an opportunity there for a massive global step-back from the brink & I seriously hope that it will happen.
    But I don't believe USA is capable of making the concessions required.
    Hole
    Hole


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    INF Treaty - coming to the end of its life   - Page 11 Empty Re: INF Treaty - coming to the end of its life

    Post  Hole Mon Oct 22, 2018 9:36 am

    At the moment Russia needs to keep some ICBM´s targeting France and England. Without the INF treaty they can deploy IRBM´s (Rubezh?). Which would be cheaper and frees up some missiles.

    A global treaty would be good, but then Amiland would loose the Advantage they think they have.

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    INF Treaty - coming to the end of its life   - Page 11 Empty Re: INF Treaty - coming to the end of its life

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