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    INF Treaty - coming to the end of its life

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    magnumcromagnon
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    Re: INF Treaty - coming to the end of its life

    Post  magnumcromagnon on Mon Sep 22, 2014 6:39 pm

    Mike E wrote:Kremlin sees no reasons to withdraw from INF Treaty

    But it is possible in exceptional circumstances, Sergei Ivanov, the chief of the Kremlin administration, said

    MOSCOW, September 21. /ITAR-TASS/. The Kremlin sees no reasons to unilaterally quit the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, but it is possible in exceptional circumstances, Sergei Ivanov, the chief of the Kremlin administration, said on Sunday.
    “In principle, each of the parties may withdraw from the treaty in exceptional circumstances,” he said in an interview with the Rossiiskaya Gazeta daily. “So far, and I would like to stress it, I see no such circumstance.”
    “As a matter of fact, we adherents of the principle of implementing international liabilities,” he said. “Unless we see that our security interests are seriously threatened.”
    He said that prior to 2003 Russia and the United States had had regular consultations on the INF Treaty but later they had been stopped at the initiative of the U.S. side. “Now, the INF Treaty is in the focus of discussion, including in a regime of accusations and counteraccusation. The American side is loudly but groundlessly accusing us of actual violation of the treaty, but we have still more claims to the Americans,” Ivanov said, citing among them target missiles the United States used during tests of its missile system, offensive operations drones and the ongoing implementation of missile defence plans providing for the deployment of MK-41 launch platforms in Europe.
    Drawback of this treaty had become evident, he said, adding that the key one was its bilateral character. “It means that any other country of the world is free to do whatever it wants as concerns this type of weapons,” Ivanov noted. As an example, he cited such countries as North Korea, Israel, Pakistan, India, Iran, which did have such type of weapons and which were located near Russia. “By the way, over the time of the Bush administration, the American leaders were fully aware of that; different geographical location requires different approaches to defence,” he noted.
    He said that the first round of new Russia-U.S. consultations had been held and the sides had told each other what they thought about it. “Let us wait for the continuation,” he added.
     
    - I don't know what to make of this... He said that they have no interest in withdrawing, just to say that they *might* withdraw at a later time... (Depending on the situation, of course...)

    The Kremlin proves yet again that it's dominated by the incredibly naive, France and Britain never signed the INF treaty and Russia is surrounded by theater range nukes from it's West, it's East, and it's South...and on top of that the U.S. will invest $1 trillion to "maintain" it's nuclear stockpile:

    ‘Anti-nuclear’ Obama plans to spend $1 trillion on nukes

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    Re: INF Treaty - coming to the end of its life

    Post  zg18 on Mon Sep 22, 2014 7:22 pm

    magnumcromagnon wrote:The Kremlin proves yet again that it's dominated by the incredibly naive, France and Britain never signed the INF treaty and Russia is surrounded by theater range nukes from it's West, it's East, and it's South...and on top of that the U.S. will invest $1 trillion to "maintain" it's nuclear stockpile:

    Why terminating INF , when you can test and deploy "Rubezh" -barely-an-ICBM- Wink

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    Re: INF Treaty - coming to the end of its life

    Post  GarryB on Tue Sep 23, 2014 7:58 am

    The INF treaty is a card Russia can play when it is useful.

    Right now it is not doing and damage to Russian security, but if that changes they are free to withdraw if they need to.

    Right now the INF treaty limits what ground based missile systems the US can deploy to Europe... any weapon... ballistic or cruise, ground to ground or ground to air, is banned by the INF treaty if its flight range is 500km to 5,500km... and if it is greater than 5,500km it is no longer an intermediate range missile... it becomes an ICBM, which comes under the New START treaty...


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    Re: INF Treaty - coming to the end of its life

    Post  George1 on Mon Dec 01, 2014 3:28 am

    GarryB wrote:The INF treaty is a card Russia can play when it is useful.

    Right now it is not doing and damage to Russian security, but if that changes they are free to withdraw if they need to.

    Right now the INF treaty limits what ground based missile systems the US can deploy to Europe... any weapon... ballistic or cruise, ground to ground or ground to air, is banned by the INF treaty if its flight range is 500km to 5,500km... and if it is greater than 5,500km it is no longer an intermediate range missile... it becomes an ICBM, which comes under the New START treaty...

    Klub-K/M land attack cruise missile system violates INF Treaty?





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    Re: INF Treaty - coming to the end of its life

    Post  GarryB on Tue Dec 02, 2014 7:23 am

    No.

    Domestic and exportable versions have ranges of less than 500km.



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    Re: INF Treaty - coming to the end of its life

    Post  magnumcromagnon on Tue Dec 02, 2014 6:51 pm

    GarryB wrote:No.

    Domestic and exportable versions have ranges of less than 500km.


    So would a naval and air launched IRBM be perfectly legal?

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    Re: INF Treaty - coming to the end of its life

    Post  GarryB on Wed Dec 03, 2014 9:42 am

    The INF treaty regards land based cruise and ballistic missiles.

    It does not apply to sub or ship launched nor air launched weapons.

    Just looking at the 5,500km range of the Kh-101 and Kh-102, perhaps extra fuel tanks and solid rocket boosters to extend its range to say, 8,000km could make a land based cruise missile perfectly legal.

    It would then count under new START as a strategic weapon if it was nuclear but with a conventional warhead it might slip through the cracks...


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    Re: INF Treaty - coming to the end of its life

    Post  Morpheus Eberhardt on Wed Dec 03, 2014 9:55 am

    George1 wrote:
    GarryB wrote:The INF treaty is a card Russia can play when it is useful.

    Right now it is not doing and damage to Russian security, but if that changes they are free to withdraw if they need to.

    Right now the INF treaty limits what ground based missile systems the US can deploy to Europe... any weapon... ballistic or cruise, ground to ground or ground to air, is banned by the INF treaty if its flight range is 500km to 5,500km... and if it is greater than 5,500km it is no longer an intermediate range missile... it becomes an ICBM, which comes under the New START treaty...

    Klub-K/M land attack cruise missile system violates INF Treaty?





    The domestic version would have a range above 5500 km.

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    Re: INF Treaty - coming to the end of its life

    Post  Vann7 on Fri Dec 05, 2014 7:10 am

    Morpheus Eberhardt wrote:
    George1 wrote:
    GarryB wrote:The INF treaty is a card Russia can play when it is useful.

    Right now it is not doing and damage to Russian security, but if that changes they are free to withdraw if they need to.

    Right now the INF treaty limits what ground based missile systems the US can deploy to Europe... any weapon... ballistic or cruise, ground to ground or ground to air, is banned by the INF treaty if its flight range is 500km to 5,500km... and if it is greater than 5,500km it is no longer an intermediate range missile... it becomes an ICBM, which comes under the New START treaty...

    Klub-K/M land attack cruise missile system violates INF Treaty?





    The domestic version would have a range above 5500 km.


    Klub have 5,500 km range? source?

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    Re: INF Treaty - coming to the end of its life

    Post  GarryB on Fri Dec 05, 2014 9:08 am

    Technically Klub is an export missile and has a flight range of less than 300km.

    Kalibr is the modern version of Granat (SS-N-21 cruise missile... nuclear armed because CEP was 250m) that can be conventionally armed because of its sub 10m CEP.

    The main reason it got a conventional warhead capability is because enormous improvements in terminal accuracy, but I see no reason why the improvements in propulsion over 20-30 years could not result in an increase in flight range too like the Kh-101 and Kh-102 over the Kh-55.


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    Re: INF Treaty - coming to the end of its life

    Post  Morpheus Eberhardt on Fri Dec 05, 2014 9:10 am

    Vann7 wrote:
    Morpheus Eberhardt wrote:
    George1 wrote:
    GarryB wrote:The INF treaty is a card Russia can play when it is useful.

    Right now it is not doing and damage to Russian security, but if that changes they are free to withdraw if they need to.

    Right now the INF treaty limits what ground based missile systems the US can deploy to Europe... any weapon... ballistic or cruise, ground to ground or ground to air, is banned by the INF treaty if its flight range is 500km to 5,500km... and if it is greater than 5,500km it is no longer an intermediate range missile... it becomes an ICBM, which comes under the New START treaty...

    Klub-K/M land attack cruise missile system violates INF Treaty?





    The domestic version would have a range above 5500 km.


    Klub have 5,500 km range? source?

    What do you mean by "source"? Do you think I personally know the designer, or do you think the designer reports to me?

    Just use deduction and calculate.


    Last edited by Morpheus Eberhardt on Fri Dec 05, 2014 9:14 am; edited 1 time in total

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    Re: INF Treaty - coming to the end of its life

    Post  Morpheus Eberhardt on Fri Dec 05, 2014 9:13 am

    Actually Kh-55SM and Kh-102 have ranges that are well above 10000 km.

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    Re: INF Treaty - coming to the end of its life

    Post  Austin on Fri Dec 12, 2014 10:01 am

    One more threat from US

    US Readying Military, Economic Options to Russian Missile Treaty Violation

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    Re: INF Treaty - coming to the end of its life

    Post  TR1 on Fri Dec 12, 2014 8:23 pm

    Morpheus Eberhardt wrote:Actually Kh-55SM and Kh-102 have ranges that are well above 10000 km.

    Not from any reliable source they don't.
    Look @ the differences between Kh-55SM and Kh-55, you think in any universe they squeezed that much range out of it?

    Some journalists made up the 10k number.
    Every other source until recently reported their range as 5000km TOPS for Kh-101/102.
    Kh55SM range is 3000km.

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    Re: INF Treaty - coming to the end of its life

    Post  Mike E on Fri Dec 12, 2014 10:30 pm

    Yeah, there is no way it has a range of 10,000 km... 5,000 or around there is much closer to reality.

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    Re: INF Treaty - coming to the end of its life

    Post  GarryB on Fri Dec 12, 2014 11:36 pm

    Actually all the sources I have seen suggest 5,500km for the Kh-101 and Kh-102 simply because that would take them out of the IRBM range and allow ground launch versions.

    The controversy with the range is interesting and could be based on flight profile...

    Take a cruise missile from the 1980s and most of its flight will be at medium altitude and low thrust setting... in other words medium to high altitude cruise to extend flight range, followed by a drop down to low level to penetrate a countries air defences.

    the thing is that those old missiles were half the weight of the current ones and had older less efficient engines and heavier components and electronics.

    The round figures of 5,000km and 5,500km and indeed 10,000km are clearly not accurate numbers, but such numbers would be secret anyway.

    I rather suspect launched from mid air from a high subsonic Tu-160 at medium altitude with a low speed optimum throttle setting the Kh-101/102 at 2 tons should be able to fly further than the figure released suggests.

    We have had Russian officials stating that the domestic version of the Kh-38 has double the range of the missile that will be made available for export (ie 80km vs 40km) so they have a habit of downplaying range even when releasing numbers for export models.

    I would like to state that 10,000km sounds like rather an exaggeration to me, but then for some time the flight range of Onyx was suggested to be similar to the Moskit (ie 120km) too.


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    Re: INF Treaty - coming to the end of its life

    Post  GarryB on Fri Dec 12, 2014 11:48 pm

    One more threat from US

    note in that article the range for the INF treaty is 300 miles to 3,400 miles, which is 480km to 5,440km.

    Amusing also is claims Russia is not abiding by the CFE treaty... amusing because only Russia and the Ukraine have actually signed it last time I checked... NATO countries refusing to sign it because of Russian troops in peacekeeping missions in Abkhazia and elsewhere.

    Putin has publicly stated although Russia has signed, it will not be bound by the terms of the treaty until all members have signed it and are following the new treaty.

    Regarding the INF treaty the US has to prove that the cruise missiles tested are in violation of the treaty... if they are Kh-101/102 based then their flight range could be over 5,500km which means the INF treaty does not apply.

    In this period of cross forces use of weapons I would question why they would keep different long range land attack cruise missiles for different branches of the Russian military.

    Certainly the Kh-101/102 have potential to replace Kalibr and the UKSK launch bins should accommodate the Kh-101/102 missiles.. having one type of missile in production should reduce costs and simplify things too.

    The original 1980s missiles were very different, with different flight performances, but now it should be possible to standardise...

    BTW the first US military sanction might lead to Russia banning the sale of Titanium for the F-35 for 4 years... which would greatly increase its cost and cause delays...


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    Re: INF Treaty - coming to the end of its life

    Post  Werewolf on Fri Dec 12, 2014 11:52 pm

    They should ban titanium for entire US, russia will not lose a single penny, the US will have to buy it as a third customer over other countries and have highly increased costs.

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    Re: INF Treaty - coming to the end of its life

    Post  Morpheus Eberhardt on Sat Dec 13, 2014 1:51 am

    TR1 wrote:
    Some journalists made up the 10k number.

    As I explained above, I would never base may assessments based on any journalist's "numbers".

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    Re: INF Treaty - coming to the end of its life

    Post  GarryB on Sat Dec 13, 2014 11:13 am

    The technology of cruise missile engines has benefited greatly from lots of investment in small engines for UAVs and UCAVs.

    The Russians are not stupid and would not blatantly violate the INF treaty when they know that the response and reaction would be the same as if they just openly withdrew from that treaty... which would be easy enough... all they would need to do is cite the expansion of the US ABM system beyond its borders as a reason.

    Based on this that, in my opinion, leaves two logical answers.

    First is that they took a 3,000km range land attack cruise missile and filled it with a 1 ton conventional warhead which has reduced its flight range to less than 500km.

    the second is that they have an increased weight cruise missile with perhaps a 200kg HE payload and a range in excess of 5,500km... both options are reasonable assumptions in my opinion and either option could have been the solution taken or indeed both options might have been taken.

    The added value of the extra payload would include the capability to carry multiple warheads... perhaps a penetrator 250kg warhead for the final target and a 750kg submunition payload that could be used to disable airfields or other targets on the way... or mine main roads likely used by military forces in enemy rear areas.


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    ― Samuel P. Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order

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    Re: INF Treaty - coming to the end of its life

    Post  Stealthflanker on Sat Dec 13, 2014 8:05 pm

    Morpheus Eberhardt wrote:

    As I explained above, I would never base may assessments based on any journalist's "numbers".

    Did you use Breguet range equation for this ? I'm curious on the variables you used..Like say fuel load.

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    Re: INF Treaty - coming to the end of its life

    Post  George1 on Fri Feb 27, 2015 11:10 am

    US Can Respond to Russia on INF With Missiles - Ex-Pentagon Official

    Daniel Gouré claimed that another response might be deployment of aerial detection systems in Europe capable to detect and track missiles, manned and unmanned aircraft up to 340 miles away. Washington accuses Moscow of alleged breaches of the INF Treaty.

    WASHINGTON (Sputnik) — The United States is capable to respond to alleged Russia’s Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty violations by deploying new sea-based ballistic missiles, placing aerial detection systems in Europe, or selling advanced drones to allies, former Pentagon official told Sputnik.

    “First thing I would do on the offensive side, it’s just going to be a 500 km [range], may be even sea-based missile,” former director of the Pentagon’s Office of Strategic Competitiveness Daniel Gouré told Sputnik. “If you really want to get ugly about it, it would be a missile capable of being deployed… on the next batch of Virginia class attack submarines.”

    The United States could build an “INF compliant” missile, "bigger than torpedo tube, bigger than Tomahawks," Gouré added.

    “And now I can put it in the North Sea, I can put it in the Arctic, if I was dealing with the Russians, I can even put it on a modified surface ship in the Black Sea,” he said.

    The Missile Defense Agency's test of the Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD). The Ground-Based Interceptor launches from Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif. on June 22, 2014.

    Beginning in July 2014, Washington accused Moscow of violating the INF treaty by testing a prohibited cruise missile. Russia has denied the allegation pointing, in turn, to US violations of the agreement that bans nuclear and conventional ground-based cruise and ballistic missiles with a range of 310-3417 miles (500-5500 kilometers).

    Gouré claimed that another response might be deployment of aerial detection systems in Europe capable to detect and track missiles, manned and unmanned aircraft up to 340 miles away.

    “In fact, you can start with sensors, you don’t even have to start with weapons,” he said. “Take the JLENS [Joint Land Attack Cruise Missile Defense Elevated Netted Sensor System], send it to Europe, just send it to Europe and deploy it.”

    JLENS, currently being tested at the Aberdeen Proving Grounds in northeast Maryland, is a system of two aerostats that float 10,000 feet in the air. The helium-filled aerostats, each nearly as long as a football field, carry powerful radars, according to the system developer Raytheon.

    Additionally, the United States could begin sales of drones to its NATO allies following the US government's ruling last week that allows the sale of armed drones to foreign governments, Gouré asserted.

    “With the new ruling, how about selling advanced drones, big ones, and the sensor packages to allies,” he said.

    The United States military and defense industry have on the shelf technology “to do all kinds of nasty things that would unnerve them [the Russians] without ever having to violate the [INF] Treaty,” the former official concluded.

    During testimony to the US Senate in early February, newly appointed Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter raised the possibility of pursuing military measures to respond to Russia’s alleged development of a ground-launched cruise missile that is not compliant with the arms control treaty.

    On Friday, a US House Armed Services committee staffer told Sputnik that Congress would actively consider Pentagon recommendations for a possible military response to Russia’s alleged violations of the INF.

    The United States and the Soviet Union signed the INF Treaty in 1987.

    Read more: http://sputniknews.com/military/20150227/1018825108.html#ixzz3SwFporJg

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    Re: INF Treaty - coming to the end of its life

    Post  GarryB on Sat Feb 28, 2015 3:53 am

    If the US is so sure Russia is violating the INF treaty then Russia should withdraw and then actually violate it...hopefully the US will see the difference...


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    Re: INF Treaty - coming to the end of its life

    Post  Mike E on Sat Feb 28, 2015 6:33 am

    GarryB wrote:If the US is so sure Russia is violating the INF treaty then Russia should withdraw and then actually violate it...hopefully the US will see the difference...
    Exactly... If the West sees Russia as "guilty", why not just drop the whole thing in the first place?

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    Re: INF Treaty - coming to the end of its life

    Post  magnumcromagnon on Sat Feb 28, 2015 6:40 am

    Mike E wrote:
    GarryB wrote:If the US is so sure Russia is violating the INF treaty then Russia should withdraw and then actually violate it...hopefully the US will see the difference...
    Exactly... If the West sees Russia as "guilty", why not just drop the whole thing in the first place?

    The reality is that the U.S. benefits more with Russia in the INF treaty, and surrounded by several theater range ballistic missile wielding countries, and Britain and France not bound by the treaty, than otherwise. It's as one-sided of a treaty as you can get!

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