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    INF Treaty - coming to the end of its life

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    Austin

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    Re: INF Treaty - coming to the end of its life

    Post  Austin on Fri Dec 12, 2014 10:01 am

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    TR1

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    Re: INF Treaty - coming to the end of its life

    Post  TR1 on Fri Dec 12, 2014 8:23 pm

    Morpheus Eberhardt wrote:Actually Kh-55SM and Kh-102 have ranges that are well above 10000 km.

    Not from any reliable source they don't.
    Look @ the differences between Kh-55SM and Kh-55, you think in any universe they squeezed that much range out of it?

    Some journalists made up the 10k number.
    Every other source until recently reported their range as 5000km TOPS for Kh-101/102.
    Kh55SM range is 3000km.
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    Mike E

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    Re: INF Treaty - coming to the end of its life

    Post  Mike E on Fri Dec 12, 2014 10:30 pm

    Yeah, there is no way it has a range of 10,000 km... 5,000 or around there is much closer to reality.
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    GarryB

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    Re: INF Treaty - coming to the end of its life

    Post  GarryB on Fri Dec 12, 2014 11:36 pm

    Actually all the sources I have seen suggest 5,500km for the Kh-101 and Kh-102 simply because that would take them out of the IRBM range and allow ground launch versions.

    The controversy with the range is interesting and could be based on flight profile...

    Take a cruise missile from the 1980s and most of its flight will be at medium altitude and low thrust setting... in other words medium to high altitude cruise to extend flight range, followed by a drop down to low level to penetrate a countries air defences.

    the thing is that those old missiles were half the weight of the current ones and had older less efficient engines and heavier components and electronics.

    The round figures of 5,000km and 5,500km and indeed 10,000km are clearly not accurate numbers, but such numbers would be secret anyway.

    I rather suspect launched from mid air from a high subsonic Tu-160 at medium altitude with a low speed optimum throttle setting the Kh-101/102 at 2 tons should be able to fly further than the figure released suggests.

    We have had Russian officials stating that the domestic version of the Kh-38 has double the range of the missile that will be made available for export (ie 80km vs 40km) so they have a habit of downplaying range even when releasing numbers for export models.

    I would like to state that 10,000km sounds like rather an exaggeration to me, but then for some time the flight range of Onyx was suggested to be similar to the Moskit (ie 120km) too.


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    GarryB

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    Re: INF Treaty - coming to the end of its life

    Post  GarryB on Fri Dec 12, 2014 11:48 pm

    One more threat from US

    note in that article the range for the INF treaty is 300 miles to 3,400 miles, which is 480km to 5,440km.

    Amusing also is claims Russia is not abiding by the CFE treaty... amusing because only Russia and the Ukraine have actually signed it last time I checked... NATO countries refusing to sign it because of Russian troops in peacekeeping missions in Abkhazia and elsewhere.

    Putin has publicly stated although Russia has signed, it will not be bound by the terms of the treaty until all members have signed it and are following the new treaty.

    Regarding the INF treaty the US has to prove that the cruise missiles tested are in violation of the treaty... if they are Kh-101/102 based then their flight range could be over 5,500km which means the INF treaty does not apply.

    In this period of cross forces use of weapons I would question why they would keep different long range land attack cruise missiles for different branches of the Russian military.

    Certainly the Kh-101/102 have potential to replace Kalibr and the UKSK launch bins should accommodate the Kh-101/102 missiles.. having one type of missile in production should reduce costs and simplify things too.

    The original 1980s missiles were very different, with different flight performances, but now it should be possible to standardise...

    BTW the first US military sanction might lead to Russia banning the sale of Titanium for the F-35 for 4 years... which would greatly increase its cost and cause delays...


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    “The West won the world not by the superiority of its ideas or values or religion […] but rather by its superiority in applying organized violence. Westerners often forget this fact; non-Westerners never do.”

    ― Samuel P. Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order
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    Werewolf

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    Re: INF Treaty - coming to the end of its life

    Post  Werewolf on Fri Dec 12, 2014 11:52 pm

    They should ban titanium for entire US, russia will not lose a single penny, the US will have to buy it as a third customer over other countries and have highly increased costs.
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    Morpheus Eberhardt

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    Re: INF Treaty - coming to the end of its life

    Post  Morpheus Eberhardt on Sat Dec 13, 2014 1:51 am

    TR1 wrote:
    Some journalists made up the 10k number.

    As I explained above, I would never base may assessments based on any journalist's "numbers".
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    GarryB

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    Re: INF Treaty - coming to the end of its life

    Post  GarryB on Sat Dec 13, 2014 11:13 am

    The technology of cruise missile engines has benefited greatly from lots of investment in small engines for UAVs and UCAVs.

    The Russians are not stupid and would not blatantly violate the INF treaty when they know that the response and reaction would be the same as if they just openly withdrew from that treaty... which would be easy enough... all they would need to do is cite the expansion of the US ABM system beyond its borders as a reason.

    Based on this that, in my opinion, leaves two logical answers.

    First is that they took a 3,000km range land attack cruise missile and filled it with a 1 ton conventional warhead which has reduced its flight range to less than 500km.

    the second is that they have an increased weight cruise missile with perhaps a 200kg HE payload and a range in excess of 5,500km... both options are reasonable assumptions in my opinion and either option could have been the solution taken or indeed both options might have been taken.

    The added value of the extra payload would include the capability to carry multiple warheads... perhaps a penetrator 250kg warhead for the final target and a 750kg submunition payload that could be used to disable airfields or other targets on the way... or mine main roads likely used by military forces in enemy rear areas.


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    “The West won the world not by the superiority of its ideas or values or religion […] but rather by its superiority in applying organized violence. Westerners often forget this fact; non-Westerners never do.”

    ― Samuel P. Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order
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    Stealthflanker

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    Re: INF Treaty - coming to the end of its life

    Post  Stealthflanker on Sat Dec 13, 2014 8:05 pm

    Morpheus Eberhardt wrote:

    As I explained above, I would never base may assessments based on any journalist's "numbers".

    Did you use Breguet range equation for this ? I'm curious on the variables you used..Like say fuel load.
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    George1

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    Re: INF Treaty - coming to the end of its life

    Post  George1 on Fri Feb 27, 2015 11:10 am

    US Can Respond to Russia on INF With Missiles - Ex-Pentagon Official

    Daniel Gouré claimed that another response might be deployment of aerial detection systems in Europe capable to detect and track missiles, manned and unmanned aircraft up to 340 miles away. Washington accuses Moscow of alleged breaches of the INF Treaty.

    WASHINGTON (Sputnik) — The United States is capable to respond to alleged Russia’s Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty violations by deploying new sea-based ballistic missiles, placing aerial detection systems in Europe, or selling advanced drones to allies, former Pentagon official told Sputnik.

    “First thing I would do on the offensive side, it’s just going to be a 500 km [range], may be even sea-based missile,” former director of the Pentagon’s Office of Strategic Competitiveness Daniel Gouré told Sputnik. “If you really want to get ugly about it, it would be a missile capable of being deployed… on the next batch of Virginia class attack submarines.”

    The United States could build an “INF compliant” missile, "bigger than torpedo tube, bigger than Tomahawks," Gouré added.

    “And now I can put it in the North Sea, I can put it in the Arctic, if I was dealing with the Russians, I can even put it on a modified surface ship in the Black Sea,” he said.

    The Missile Defense Agency's test of the Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD). The Ground-Based Interceptor launches from Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif. on June 22, 2014.

    Beginning in July 2014, Washington accused Moscow of violating the INF treaty by testing a prohibited cruise missile. Russia has denied the allegation pointing, in turn, to US violations of the agreement that bans nuclear and conventional ground-based cruise and ballistic missiles with a range of 310-3417 miles (500-5500 kilometers).

    Gouré claimed that another response might be deployment of aerial detection systems in Europe capable to detect and track missiles, manned and unmanned aircraft up to 340 miles away.

    “In fact, you can start with sensors, you don’t even have to start with weapons,” he said. “Take the JLENS [Joint Land Attack Cruise Missile Defense Elevated Netted Sensor System], send it to Europe, just send it to Europe and deploy it.”

    JLENS, currently being tested at the Aberdeen Proving Grounds in northeast Maryland, is a system of two aerostats that float 10,000 feet in the air. The helium-filled aerostats, each nearly as long as a football field, carry powerful radars, according to the system developer Raytheon.

    Additionally, the United States could begin sales of drones to its NATO allies following the US government's ruling last week that allows the sale of armed drones to foreign governments, Gouré asserted.

    “With the new ruling, how about selling advanced drones, big ones, and the sensor packages to allies,” he said.

    The United States military and defense industry have on the shelf technology “to do all kinds of nasty things that would unnerve them [the Russians] without ever having to violate the [INF] Treaty,” the former official concluded.

    During testimony to the US Senate in early February, newly appointed Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter raised the possibility of pursuing military measures to respond to Russia’s alleged development of a ground-launched cruise missile that is not compliant with the arms control treaty.

    On Friday, a US House Armed Services committee staffer told Sputnik that Congress would actively consider Pentagon recommendations for a possible military response to Russia’s alleged violations of the INF.

    The United States and the Soviet Union signed the INF Treaty in 1987.

    Read more: http://sputniknews.com/military/20150227/1018825108.html#ixzz3SwFporJg
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    GarryB

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    Re: INF Treaty - coming to the end of its life

    Post  GarryB on Sat Feb 28, 2015 3:53 am

    If the US is so sure Russia is violating the INF treaty then Russia should withdraw and then actually violate it...hopefully the US will see the difference...


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    Mike E

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    Re: INF Treaty - coming to the end of its life

    Post  Mike E on Sat Feb 28, 2015 6:33 am

    GarryB wrote:If the US is so sure Russia is violating the INF treaty then Russia should withdraw and then actually violate it...hopefully the US will see the difference...
    Exactly... If the West sees Russia as "guilty", why not just drop the whole thing in the first place?
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    magnumcromagnon

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    Re: INF Treaty - coming to the end of its life

    Post  magnumcromagnon on Sat Feb 28, 2015 6:40 am

    Mike E wrote:
    GarryB wrote:If the US is so sure Russia is violating the INF treaty then Russia should withdraw and then actually violate it...hopefully the US will see the difference...
    Exactly... If the West sees Russia as "guilty", why not just drop the whole thing in the first place?

    The reality is that the U.S. benefits more with Russia in the INF treaty, and surrounded by several theater range ballistic missile wielding countries, and Britain and France not bound by the treaty, than otherwise. It's as one-sided of a treaty as you can get!
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    Mike E

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    Re: INF Treaty - coming to the end of its life

    Post  Mike E on Sat Feb 28, 2015 7:25 am

    magnumcromagnon wrote:
    Mike E wrote:
    GarryB wrote:If the US is so sure Russia is violating the INF treaty then Russia should withdraw and then actually violate it...hopefully the US will see the difference...
    Exactly... If the West sees Russia as "guilty", why not just drop the whole thing in the first place?

    The reality is that the U.S. benefits more with Russia in the INF treaty, and surrounded by several theater range ballistic missile wielding countries, and Britain and France not bound by the treaty, than otherwise. It's as one-sided of a treaty as you can get!
    Agreed. Everyday Russia has lesser a reason to maintain this (clearly) one-sided treaty. I hope it will be solved soon, but only time will tell...
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    GarryB

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    Re: INF Treaty - coming to the end of its life

    Post  GarryB on Sun Mar 01, 2015 2:13 am

    I am sure the US would love to return ground launched cruise missiles to Europe... and now they can locate them all over Europe...

    Keep the treaty just STFU with the whining. If you have proof show it... otherwise... STFU.


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    “The West won the world not by the superiority of its ideas or values or religion […] but rather by its superiority in applying organized violence. Westerners often forget this fact; non-Westerners never do.”

    ― Samuel P. Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order
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    Mike E

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    Re: INF Treaty - coming to the end of its life

    Post  Mike E on Sun Mar 01, 2015 2:18 am

    GarryB wrote:I am sure the US would love to return ground launched cruise missiles to Europe... and now they can locate them all over Europe...

    Keep the treaty just STFU with the whining. If you have proof show it... otherwise... STFU.
    So would Russia to Havana, lol...  lol1
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    flamming_python

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    Re: INF Treaty - coming to the end of its life

    Post  flamming_python on Sun Mar 01, 2015 2:34 am

    GarryB wrote:I am sure the US would love to return ground launched cruise missiles to Europe... and now they can locate them all over Europe...

    Keep the treaty just STFU with the whining. If you have proof show it... otherwise... STFU.

    Sry Garry voted you down by mistake Neutral
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    magnumcromagnon

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    Re: INF Treaty - coming to the end of its life

    Post  magnumcromagnon on Sun Mar 01, 2015 3:02 am

    GarryB wrote:I am sure the US would love to return ground launched cruise missiles to Europe... and now they can locate them all over Europe...

    Keep the treaty just STFU with the whining. If you have proof show it... otherwise... STFU.

    Ground launched cruise missiles in Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba, Ecuador, all pro-Russian countries that have criticized U.S. military overstretch. Wink
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    George1

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    Re: INF Treaty - coming to the end of its life

    Post  George1 on Wed Mar 11, 2015 5:02 pm

    Tensions over intermediate nuclear force treaty high — Russian foreign ministry

    MOSCOW, 11 March. /TASS/. The intermediate nuclear force (INF) Soviet-US treaty of 1987 that outlawed the intermediate and shorter range missiles is not falling apart yet, but tensions over it are soaring high, the director of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s non-proliferation and arms control department, Mikhail Ulyanov, told a news conference on Wednesday.

    "Some actions by our US colleagues cause great surprise. At a meeting with a US delegation in Moscow on the issue US delegates did explain what particularly they do not like - in their scheme of things we are expected to say voluntarily what we have violated and to confess violations," Ulyanov said. "This kind of approach does not look serious to us."

    "At the same time we have at least three questions about US compliance with the treaty. I cannot say that the replies the Americans offered satisfied us," the diplomat said.

    "The discussion with the United States on this subject will go on. Its outcome is anyone’s guess but at this point it would be wrong to say that the treaty is falling apart," Ulyanov concluded.

    US actions jeopardize nuclear disarmament process


    Ulyanov said that US actions undermine the global strategic stability and make further steps towards nuclear disarmament problematic.

    He reminded that the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty signed in 2010 envisaged a reduction in the nuclear potentials of Russia and the United States, adding that "there was no doubt that both countries would accomplish the task".

    Ulyanov added that Washington’s current actions, specifically, the deployment of anti-ballistic missile system in Europe and development of high-precision strategic non-nuclear weapons brought into question further steps towards nuclear disarmament.

    "In such circumstances, the continuation of the nuclear disarmament process seems problematic", he said.

    "This is a question that should be posed to the United States", Ulyanov said, adding that Russia’s focus was on creating the necessary conditions for disarmament.
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    max steel

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    Re: INF Treaty - coming to the end of its life

    Post  max steel on Thu Mar 12, 2015 7:33 pm

    Good news for GarryB to cheer upon  cheers



    The intermediate nuclear force (INF) Soviet-US treaty of 1987 that outlawed the intermediate and shorter range missiles is not falling apart yet, but tensions over it are soaring high, the director of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s non-proliferation and arms control department, Mikhail Ulyanov, told a news conference . Garry's wish might come true .  sniper  sunny




    http://tass.ru/en/russia/782155


    Last edited by max steel on Fri Mar 13, 2015 12:04 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    GarryB

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    Re: INF Treaty - coming to the end of its life

    Post  GarryB on Fri Mar 13, 2015 12:26 am

    Sorry for off topic but why do people spell Garry with only one r?

    Harry, Larry, Barry, the word carry and the word marry all have two rs in them.

    In fact when you take one r out of the word marry it becomes Mary which is pronounced completely differently from marry or Garry or Larry etc etc.

    Not that it is hugely bothersome as it has happened most of my life.


    _________________
    “The West won the world not by the superiority of its ideas or values or religion […] but rather by its superiority in applying organized violence. Westerners often forget this fact; non-Westerners never do.”

    ― Samuel P. Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order
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    Werewolf

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    Re: INF Treaty - coming to the end of its life

    Post  Werewolf on Fri Mar 13, 2015 12:27 am

    Why not call you B or Gaz? Cool
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    Big_Gazza

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    Re: INF Treaty - coming to the end of its life

    Post  Big_Gazza on Fri Mar 13, 2015 1:47 pm

    Werewolf wrote:Why not call you B or Gaz? Cool

    Seconded... Very Happy
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    magnumcromagnon

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    Good news for GarryB to cheer upon

    Post  magnumcromagnon on Fri Mar 13, 2015 2:18 pm

    Or how about, Mig-GarryBM?
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    George1

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    Re: INF Treaty - coming to the end of its life

    Post  George1 on Tue Mar 24, 2015 10:03 am

    US says ready to continue dialogue with Russia on INF treaty

    Washington has started suspecting that Moscow is violating the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces treaty, a US official told a TASS correspondent at the Carnegie International Nuclear Policy

    WASHINGTON, March 24. /TASS/. Under-Secretary for Arms Control and International Security at the US Department of State Rose Gottemoeller has said Washington is ready to continue the dialogue with Moscow on the observance of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF).

    Gottemoeller told a TASS correspondent at the Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference in Washington, DC on Monday that the United States seeks to settle the issues related to the treaty, which was signed in 1987.

    The diplomat said the goal is to find a mutually acceptable solution to the issues which Washington raised during the consultations with the Russian government. She said the discussions on the issue are ongoing.

    Washington has recently started suspecting that Moscow is violating the INF treaty, the US official said. According to the US, Russia is developing a new cruise missile which is banned under the treaty.

    The Russian officials say that the US itself violates the treaty. In February, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that the US actions "are in conflict with the spirit and the letter of this document." For instance, the minister said armed drones widely used by the US fall within the treaty’s definition of intermediate-range cruise land-based missiles.

    "The treaty directly prohibits ABM launchers, which will soon be deployed in Romania and Poland, because they can be used to launch intermediate-range cruise missiles," the minister said.

    "While refusing to acknowledge these facts, our US colleagues assert they have some "substantiated" claims against Russia with respect to the INF Treaty, but diligently avoid specifics," he said.

    In comments to Moscow’s accusations, Gottemoeller said that in her opinion the Russian colleagues had been provided with "substantial information" on the issue. She also confirmed the US readiness to continue talks in an effort to solve the dispute related to the INF treaty.

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