State Armaments Program 2011-2020

I cannot locate the article at the moment but it was out in the previous couple of weeks in regards to the replacement of foreign parts for the Defense industry. In it was mentioned that at the present there are over a 100 new and rebuilt military equipment unable to be completed due to lack of parts and that over 600 repairs are unable to be completed for the same reason. Could be sometime into 2017 before all these issues are resolved. Comment came from either Rogozin or some MoD spokesperson.

franco wrote:Russia to continue rearming at ~200 aircraft and ~600 AFV's per year;
http://tass.ru/en/defense/843801

Good news. 

As for the equipment that is waiting for spares from import substitution, any clue what they may be?

No it didn't specify. Just felt it was an important piece to share.

franco wrote:No it didn't specify. Just felt it was an important piece to share.

Very important.  It shows the need for import substitution and doing things domestically.

I still am gloating over how I mentioned importing and JV for military was dangerous for Russia and how I was lambasted for it.

Tank moderaztion:

http://southfront.org/russia-military-report-a-tale-of-three-tanks/


Nuclear moderaztion:

http://southfront.org/russia-military-report-nuclear-triad-modernization/

2015 ended and it's time to sum up the work of the Russian military-industrial complex, and compare them with the results of last year. According to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation in the framework of the state defense order this year is at 7% more military equipment than in the past, and do deliveries are made on 96% (95% in 2014). To obtain a more complete picture you need to pay attention to certain categories of military equipment.

Aviation equipment - less than last year

In 2015, Air-Space Forces of the Russian Federation (FSI) received 243 aircraft and helicopters - a little less than in 2014, while the troops were 277 aircraft. Keep in mind that this figure takes into account the technology, the modernization of the past, not only built from scratch. If you take only new products in the past year we received a record number of videoconferencing aircraft - 108 units.
This year, counting some complexity; less information: for sure you can talk about the supply of 18 multi-role fighters Su-30cm, 4 Su-30M2 (according to the plans 5 may open information is incomplete), 18 Sukhoi Su-34 (2 over the plan), not less than 6 Su-35 (although the plan they were 14, it is possible that a transfer of a part of these official information did not appear), not less than 6 light MiG-29 SMT (P) / UX (R) (possibly , 12 training Yak-130, 1 military transport aircraft Il-76MD-90A, An-148-100E 1 (maybe 2). In total - is 66-78 aircraft. That is, even in the most favorable case, released on 30 cars less (27% less). The reasons for this are different: out of contracts for Su-35s (new contract for 48 aircraft has not been signed) and deck MiG-29K aircraft An-148 and An-140 made without cooperation with Ukraine is problematic for the Yak-130 had some difficulties with the rapid import substitution. Nevertheless, the result is still not bad, considering the economic problems and the question of establishing local production of components.
As for the helicopters - detailed data in this year's smaller, but, apparently, the number of helicopters produced much has changed. With regard to the modernization of existing equipment, its rates remain high.

Strategic Nuclear Forces - actively replenished as before
In 2015, the "nuclear triad" received 35 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) - are expected to land 24 RS-24 "yars", and the rest - P-30 "Bulava", which are equipped with submarines of Project 955 "Borey". Last year it was built 38 ICBMs, including 16 "Yarsov" and 22 "Bulava". Thus, in the field of problems or significant changes there - no country in the world is not even close to such indicators. At the current rate by 2022 in service of the Russian Federation will be the only modern ICBMs.
Along with the construction of new ICBMs, strategic forces also got past modernization bombers - Tu-160M ​​2, 3 Tu-95MS and Tu-22M3 5. Navy also received two missile submarines of Project 955 "Borey" carrying 16 ICBMs "Bulava".

Manufacturing technology and the modernization of the land has remained at about the same level as last year, for example, still received two sets of missile brigade "Iskander-M". In total, modernized and built up to 1172 units of armored vehicles (tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers, armored vehicles), 148 rocket and artillery systems and up to 2292 vehicles. But the main novelty was the new generation of armored vehicles, pre-series batch which is shown in the Victory Parade on May 9 in Moscow. Were demonstrated tank T-14 heavy infantry fighting vehicles T-15 created Undercarriage "Armata", infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers on the basis of track platform "Kurganets-25" wheeled APCs "Boomerang", 152-mm self-propelled howitzer "Coalition-SV" .

Air defenses were also reported in the planned amount

Military shipbuilding - the most vulnerable sector
Russian Navy was in 2015, two diesel-electric submarine project 636.6 "Warszawianka" (1 in 2014), 2 nuclear submarine Project 955 "Borey" (1 in 2014), two small missile ship project 21631 and other ships: in total 8 surface and 16 support vessels.
In addition, the state tests patrol ship project 11356 "Admiral Grigorovich" (to be adopted in February 2016). Two more ships of this type will be commissioned in 2016. But associated with them, and a big problem - the ships of the project established Ukrainian power plants, so the fate of the 3 more ships under construction a few vague, although the construction and start again.
In general, the Navy may be affected by the economic crisis and sanctions hardest: the industry was in a very serious condition, the large surface ships were not built for many years, so the "save" means the budget, probably, it is the shipbuilders. Enough hard problem is the dependence on the Ukrainian and German power plants that are now impossible to buy.

Sanctions and "cheap oil" could not seriously harm the Russian military-industrial complex

The main conclusion is that Western sanctions and economic crisis in two years could not fundamentally affect the military-industrial complex of the Russian Federation - there were some problems in some sectors, many of which have been solved, while others need to be addressed (for example, personal "extremely" complicated Ukrainian analogues in the manufacture of ship propulsion systems in RF not simply because this Soviet design, thus - a matter of time). However, the next 2-3 years will be very revealing - primarily because of the problems in the economy. The first task for the military-industrial complex - run state armaments program until 2020. Just the results of 2016, 2017 and 2018 and show us whether the Russian "defense industry" stand up the pace. In addition, you must have an active work on the state armaments program until 2025 (its adoption is postponed due to the unpredictable economic situation in the country).

More of the same....

Equipping the Armed Forces with modern samples reached 47%. At the enlarged session of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation was submitted a report on the outcome of the War Department for 2015 According to the document, according to the results of the growth of the state defense order supplies to the troops of the new weapons and equipment amounted to 7% compared to the 2014 Armed Facilities Forces (AF) modern samples reached 47% (target current state armaments program - 2020 to bring the latest technology to share 70%). December 30, 2015 Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin said in an interview to television channel "Russia-24" that the state defense order will be executed in 2015 by about 96%. An overview of new military equipment, which went into operation the Russian Armed Forces in 2015 Strategic Nuclear Forces (SNF) - The Strategic Missile Forces (RVSN) on combat duty have taken up 6 missile regiments equipped with stationary and mobile missile complexes RS-24 "yars". The share of modern weapons in ground-based strategic nuclear forces (SNF) has reached 51%, in constant combat readiness contains 95% launchers. - Aircraft component SNF replenished with ten modernized aircraft: Long-range aviation has received 2 strategic bomber-rocket carrier Tu-160M, 3 strategic bomber-rocket carrier Tu-95MS and 5 long-range supersonic bomber Tu-22M3. - Entered in the combat-ready naval forces 2 missile submarine of strategic purpose (SSBN) project 955 "Borey" - K-550 "Alexander Nevsky" K-551 "Vladimir Monomakh". Facilities marine strategic nuclear forces with modern weapons was 56%. - Total SNF in 2015 were delivered 35 new intercontinental ballistic missiles, causing equipment "nuclear triad" of strategic nuclear forces with modern arms has reached 55%.

Aerospace forces August 1 on the basis of the Air Force (Air Force) and the troops Aerospace Defense (VVKO) created a new branch of the armed forces - the Air-Space Forces (VKS). Was transformed 6 Army and Air Force and Air Defence 3 aircraft division, formed 12 aviation regiments. In the Northern Fleet formed 45th Army Air Force and Air Defense. Within the framework of the state defense order in 2015 VCS received 243 new aircrafts. According from public sources, this figure includes: 18 Sukhoi Su-34; 18 Su-30SM; at least 4 Su-30M2; at least 6 Su-35S; at least 4 MiG-29 SMT (P); 12 combat training aircraft Yak-130; 1 heavy military transport aircraft Il-76MD-90A; at least 1 passenger aircraft An-148-100E; 16 Ka-52 helicopters; at least 3 Mi-8MTV5-1; at least 2 helicopters "Ansat-U". Were upgraded 11 fighter-interceptors MiG-31BM and 1 airborne command post IL-80. Troops EKR received 90 anti-aircraft missile systems and complexes, 208 radar systems. As a result, the share of modern weapons in video conferencing has reached 52%.

Land Forces (SV) In 2015, the Armed Forces formed 8 new Brigades for various purposes. The troops received: 2 brigade sets of missile complexes "Iskander-M"; 1,172 units of equipment, including tanks (including modified T-72B3) and other armored vehicles; 148 rocket and artillery systems; 2,292 car for different purposes. The level of equipment with modern weapons SV reached 35%. May 9, 2015 at the Victory Parade in Moscow were officially presented promising military equipment - tanks T-14 and T-15 infantry fighting vehicles to heavy tracked unified platform "Armata", armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles on the track platform "Kurganets-25" on the APC wheel platform "Boomerang" and self-propelled howitzers "Coalition-SV".

Navy (Navy) The Navy received 8 new surface warships and 16 support vessels. In the Navy included: 2 diesel-electric submarines of Project 06363 - B-265 "Krasnodar" and B-262 "Stary Oskol"; 2 small missile ship project 21631 - "Green Dol" and "Serpukhov". Returned to service after the repair of the submarine B-227 "Vyborg" Project 877, K-335 "Cheetah" Project 971 and B-336 "Pskov" Project 945A. Also in the operation included patrol boat project 03160, anti-sabotage boat project 21980, landing craft projects 21820 and 02510, ship communication, "Yuri Ivanov" Project 18280, boats, catamarans search and rescue support project 23370, transport Floating Dock Project 22570 "Sviyaga" Marine Transportation of weapons "Academician Kovalev" project 20181, and others. The level of equipment of the Navy with modern ships reached 39%.

Besides Specialists of the Russian Armed Forces currently operate 1,720 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), "drones" are taking part in combat operations on the territory of Syria. For comparison, in 2011 the Russian Air Force used a total of 180 UAV. The first stage of the Unified Space System. Enacted its West modernized command post in the Central Federal District, conducted training ground facilities Plesetsk cosmodrome. In November, launched the first spacecraft system.

In 2016 the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation plans to: Put in SV 2 brigade sets of missile complexes "Iskander-M" and multiple launch rocket systems "Tornado-C", and 1 set of Brigadier anti-missile system "Buk-M3." Rearm 6 battalions on new tanks and infantry fighting vehicles. Put in VKS and aircraft of the Navy more than 200 new and upgraded models of aircraft. Rearm 5 anti-aircraft missile regiment in the anti-aircraft missile system S-400. Build group of United Space Systems to launch another device of the system. Put on alert 3 radar station - "Voronezh-DM" Yeniseysk and Barnaul and "Voronezh-M" in Orsk. Enter the Navy 2 multi-purpose submarines and surface warships 7.

http://tass.ru/en/defense/849380

So Kudrin believes that in 2 - 3 years time, if current economic situations holds same (unlikely) that defense spending will have to be reduced.  He makes good points but main point should be made is to stretch out sap2020 to possibly 2025 so it can still meet the needs of the military, just reduced perchases per year to save money but in longer run, get same needed numbers of new equipment.

It certainly must be cut if there will be basically no growth in the next few years, but indeed that seems to be quite unlikely. But even if they have to cut military spending, it seems that they SAP2020 will be largely achieved by 2020. I mean they are already at over 47% "modern", so I think they can quite "easily" reach something like 60% even in the worst case scenario by the end of 2020. They have to keep factories running after all.

How many rubles is Russia earning per barrel at the moment? Oil has gone down to around $35 (EDIT: Urals seems to be slightly below $30), but the ruble has also weakened somewhat.

Well, brent oil is at $30 and Rub is at 76rub/usd. So for 1,000,000 barrels, they are getting 2.28B rubles (forgot the 30x part thanks Franco).

By 2020, I imagine a huge part of the airforce will be modernized and other areas like Army and Navy will be left as the ones needing concentration.  I just imagine instead of lets say 50 Su-35's for 2019 and 30 for 2020 order (theoretically), they would opt for lets say 40 for 2019 and 40 for 2020.  This is all an example of hypothetical situation.  But in that case, saving money on 10 aircraft for 2019 could wager a savings of 2.28B rubles and they would end up with same # of Su-35 in the end (just later date).

Ultimately, as the % of modernized equipment gets closer to the mark, the less money that will be required in future orders to meet the rest of the demand, so ultimately, defense spending will drop.  I imagine next saps will be much smaller than this one.

Will be overall good if they can not only save money, but also keep steady work for the industries and still have additional finding for R&D.  But reality might be Russia would have to find some sort of middle ground. Lets say purchase newer but cheaper equipment than the more expensive equipment.  If Pak Fa is too expensive, they may opt for an alternative (cheaper but still uses a lot of the technology learned). And instead of new destroyers like Lider, they may opt for more frigates/corvettes.  Things like purchases of tanks is hard decision.  T-90MS would be much cheaper than Armata, but only in short term.  Key here is the chasis is what will make it fundamentally cheaper in long run due to similar components between various classes (Armata to Kurganets to Boomerang).

Check your math! Should be $30 x 76 = 2280 Rubles per barrel.

I screwed up. So it is 2.28B rubles.

Forgot the 30x part.  As well, Billion, not trillion.

Piece of news about Russian State Armaments Program 2011-2020:

Russian Media Revealed Growing Breaches in Multibillion Defense Contracts
http://mil.today/2016/Weapons2/

Backinblack wrote:Piece of news about Russian State Armaments Program 2011-2020:

Russian Media Revealed Growing Breaches in Multibillion Defense Contracts
http://mil.today/2016/Weapons2/

...Interesting enough Navalny is involved in "exposing corruption"...I stopped reading when that douche's name was mentioned.

magnumcromagnon wrote:

Backinblack wrote:Piece of news about Russian State Armaments Program 2011-2020:

Russian Media Revealed Growing Breaches in Multibillion Defense Contracts
http://mil.today/2016/Weapons2/

...Interesting enough Navalny is involved in "exposing corruption"...I stopped reading when that douche's name was mentioned.

I added a comment to the article. Essentially, there was no talks of cutting defense spending, and I have no idea where they are getting this info from, because I cannot find anything. I posted even Medvedev's statement of SAP2020 has priority and wont be cut. So the statements are odd from what is being stated about. And yes, Navalny is a joke.

Rostec's Sergei Chemezov thinks that the defence order will be cut by 10% this year:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/wsj-q-a-with-sergei-chemezov-1457657218

I wonder how much it increased from 2014 to 2016? Probably over 10%? Because that year was already a very good one for the armaments program. Not to mention that according to Rogozin they are actually ahead of the plan.

Due to the failure of state contracts of the Russian Federation Ministry of Defense has received less 15 planes and 8 ships among others

Their non-fulfillment of the state order several enterprises of the Russian Federation Ministry of Defense has received less dozens of pieces of military equipment, according to Sight with reference to the Deputy Defense Minister Yuri Borisov.
"Despite the positive, on the whole, the dynamics of the implementation of the SDO-2015, are not fulfilled a number of government contracts. So, in a timely manner not delivered 15 aircraft, 8 vessels, 17 units of communications and automated control systems " Borisov reported to the Russian president.

In addition, according to him, the Defense Ministry has not received "3 carrier rocket" Rokot ", one upper stage" Breeze ", 253 missiles for various purposes, and 240 units of armored vehicles."
"For all non-performance government contracts drawn companies exhibited penalties work are taken under special control," - Borisov said.
He noted that the reason for the failure of contracts were "poor organization of enterprises lead executor, the low level of capacity planning and attracting labor resources" and "the cessation of production of components and raw materials, loss of individual production technologies, violation of cooperative relations."
In general (so far) the state defense order for the last year made 98%.

Some more info on last year's results and plans for this year state armaments;

http://bmpd.livejournal.com/1786376.html

Impact of the Economic Crisis

https://thecipherbrief.com/article/europe/impact-economic-crisis-1090

The drop in Russian state revenues has affected Russian military modernization to some extent, though the Russian government has made an effort to insulate the military from budget cuts. Although the 2015 military budget was cut by five percent mid-year, the total allocation was still 25 percent higher than the previous year’s budget. This allowed the military to continue its modernization process, conduct operations in Syria, and fulfill its training and exercise programs.

With oil prices remaining low, the military is facing a more difficult financial picture in 2016. In November, the Finance Ministry announced that the total 2016 defense budget would be largely the same as in 2015. However, last month, an additional five percent cut was announced, which will result in the first annual net decline in Russian defense spending since Vladimir Putin became president in 2000.

As a result of the deteriorating financial outlook, the fulfillment of the 2011-2020 State Armament Program is now in question. The Russian military continues to develop new designs and receive new hardware but has been forced to reduce the quantities purchased of some items and to defer some big ticket items. For example, completion of the Yasen and Borei nuclear submarine construction programs has been pushed back from 2020 to no earlier than 2023 for the Yasen class and 2021 for the Borei class. Whereas Uralvagonzavod has previously announced that it will provide 2300 Armata T-14 main battle tanks to the Russian army by 2020, experts believe that only 200-300 will actually be procured over the next five years, with 2300 remaining a goal for 2030. Completion of the Barguzin railroad-based ICBM system was initially delayed by a over a year and then canceled due to financial problems. Finally, orders of the T-50 fifth generation fighter aircraft were reduced in 2015 from 55 to 12 because of the country’s deteriorating financial situation.

Longer term projects have also faced delays, with procurement of a new long range strategic bomber being postponed in favor of modernization of existing bombers. Plans for building large naval ships have been particularly affected. Construction of a new 14 thousand ton nuclear-powered destroyer, once intended to start in 2016, appears to no longer be under discussion, while plans for large amphibious assault ships, meant to replace the Mistral project that was canceled due to Western sanctions, remain amorphous and may have been quietly put on the back burner.

Overall, the constraints on procurement that have resulted from military budget cuts should not affect Russia’s strategic outlook in the near to medium term. The net effect of the procurement delays is that the Russian military will continue to depend on existing platforms and weapons to a greater extent and for a longer time period than originally hoped by the organizers of the military modernization effort. However, the Russian military is more than strong enough to hold its own in a conventional conflict against any likely adversaries other than the United States. And it could not hope to match the U.S. military even if the 2020 State Armament Program was fully implemented.

U.S. policymakers should not assume that Russia’s budget problems mean that they can stop thinking about the Russian military. While the Russian military is postponing and delaying many of its most ambitious military procurement projects, the financial situation has had a very limited impact on current military operations. The Russian military has shown that it can continue to maintain its schedule of exercises despite the financial constraints. The military has continued to regularly hold snap exercises, a practice that was begun by Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu soon after his appointment. The added financial outlays that resulted from the operation in Syria have been absorbed by the Defense Ministry without problem, with part of the cost being simply reallocated from the training budget.

Russia’s economic crisis has had at least one positive outcome for the Russian military. The number of applicants to serve as contract soldiers in the military has increased. For young men from small towns in the provinces, a military salary can provide a secure paycheck and reasonable living conditions. With the economic slowdown, the army has become a more attractive option.

The potential threat posed by the Russian military to Western states does not depend on the full implementation of all of the procurement plans. Russia’s existing complement of military hardware includes formidable air defense systems, high quality strike aircraft, and a growing number of ships and submarines equipped with land-attack and anti-ship cruise missiles. These forces have demonstrated their ability to conduct a small but effective air strike campaign in Syria, can present a strong A2/AD challenge to NATO forces operating near Russia’s borders, and have the capability of using cruise missiles to threaten targets up to 2500km away from ships located in enclosed seas (such as the Caspian and the Black Sea) where they are quite well-protected from potential adversaries. These existing capabilities will present a concern for U.S. military planners regardless of Russia’s ability to complete its larger military modernization program.

Another garbage article?

Nothing stated in the article has ANYTHING to do with budget.  Anyone with half a fucking brain would be able to point this out.

Lets begin:

The drop in Russian state revenues has affected Russian military modernization to some extent, though the Russian government has made an effort to insulate the military from budget cuts. Although the 2015 military budget was cut by five percent mid-year, the total allocation was still 25 percent higher than the previous year’s budget. This allowed the military to continue its modernization process, conduct operations in Syria, and fulfill its training and exercise programs.

With oil prices remaining low, the military is facing a more difficult financial picture in 2016. In November, the Finance Ministry announced that the total 2016 defense budget would be largely the same as in 2015. However, last month, an additional five percent cut was announced, which will result in the first annual net decline in Russian defense spending since Vladimir Putin became president in 2000.

I am starting to think you are purposely posting rehashes from what you or others have posted in the past, but this one sure sounds familiar already.  But let me break this one apart: http://russia-insider.com/en/putin-vows-defense-cut-wont-affect-procurement/ri13332

Since it has already been stated with:

The downside of this is that spending cuts will disproportionally affect personnel costs perhaps slowing down Russia's drive to attain more professional soldiers and rely less on conscripts serving short, 1-year terms.

As a result of the deteriorating financial outlook, the fulfillment of the 2011-2020 State Armament Program is now in question. The Russian military continues to develop new designs and receive new hardware but has been forced to reduce the quantities purchased of some items and to defer some big ticket items. For example, completion of the Yasen and Borei nuclear submarine construction programs has been pushed back from 2020 to no earlier than 2023 for the Yasen class and 2021 for the Borei class. Whereas Uralvagonzavod has previously announced that it will provide 2300 Armata T-14 main battle tanks to the Russian army by 2020, experts believe that only 200-300 will actually be procured over the next five years, with 2300 remaining a goal for 2030. Completion of the Barguzin railroad-based ICBM system was initially delayed by a over a year and then canceled due to financial problems. Finally, orders of the T-50 fifth generation fighter aircraft were reduced in 2015 from 55 to 12 because of the country’s deteriorating financial situation.

Once again, whoever quotes this idiot as worthy of anything, should be fired from whatever job they have especially if it is a so called think tank.  Let me explain:

The T-50 is being ordered by 12+0 due to the fact that these are training units for actual use.  Anyone will know that a unit is derived of 12 aircrafts, hence why Russia purchases in 12's.  Notice that no additional orders mentioned? it is all because it is for training and seeing serial production.  As for when items are pushed back isn't anything to do with finances.  The projects are already financed.  When it is pushed back during its production is due to the fact that there are issues with either production or suppliers:

   Deputy Defense Minister Yuri Borisov told the meeting that arms plants have missed delivery schedules on 15 warplanes, eight navy ships and 240 armored vehicles among other weapons systems.

   Borisov said that some of the delays were linked to subcontractors going out of business and missing technology.

   He claimed that the Western ban on the sales of weapons and arms technologies to Russia and Ukraine's decision to halt military industrial cooperation with Russia "had no significant impact" on Russian arms production.

Longer term projects have also faced delays, with procurement of a new long range strategic bomber being postponed in favor of modernization of existing bombers. Plans for building large naval ships have been particularly affected. Construction of a new 14 thousand ton nuclear-powered destroyer, once intended to start in 2016, appears to no longer be under discussion, while plans for large amphibious assault ships, meant to replace the Mistral project that was canceled due to Western sanctions, remain amorphous and may have been quietly put on the back burner.

What?  It was no more than a month and half ago (http://kret.com/en/news/10258/) we heard more about Russia's helicopter carrier.  As well, Liner hasn't even been decided yet.  And neither of these are a case regarding funds.  This is like cherry picking issues that derived from a supplier issue or production issues, and instantly state "oh, it is because of lack of funds!"  Who hires these retards?  None of this is reference to finances at all.

This article was posted on this forums already, over a month ago, with almost exactly same details.  It was on an Indian website though and I recall bitching about it.  The article is all a bunch of "hunches" with absolutely no proof what-so-ever to back up the claims.  And even someone that can take even a few minutes to do some research will know that his comments regarding the ships, T-50, and such are all pretty much pure non-sense.

Such articles simply turn this forums into a laughing joke, especially when it is repeated.