Military Forum for Russian and Global Defence Issues


    Russian Economy General News: #1

    Share
    avatar
    magnumcromagnon

    Posts : 4468
    Points : 4627
    Join date : 2013-12-05
    Location : Pindos ave., Pindosville, Pindosylvania, Pindostan

    Re: Russian Economy General News: #1

    Post  magnumcromagnon on Wed Mar 26, 2014 6:48 pm

    flamming_python wrote:
    The Western ones at least have proven to be more or less objective.

    I'm sorry but that simply isn't true, Standard & Poor's, one of the worlds most renowned rating agencies has been seriously challenged in court on 2 different occasions in 2 different countries because of their unreliability, as well as their blatant favoritism towards hedge-funds and derivative speculators alike.

    In Australia:

    Standard & Poor's appeals landmark ruling in favour of NSW local councils

    One of the world's biggest credit ratings agencies and a European investment bank will begin an appeal in the Federal Court in Sydney today to try and overturn a landmark ruling that they misled local councils.

    In late 2012, the court ruled that 13 New South Wales councils were deceived because Standard & Poor's gave complex investments a AAA credit rating, the highest investment ranking.

    The councils lost most of their money when the product, a Constant Proportion Debt Obligation (CPDO), plunged in value during the global financial crisis.

    The judge, Justice Jayne Jagot, granted them nearly $30 million in compensation.

    S&P, ABN AMRO, the European bank which created the investments, and Local Government Financial Services, which sold the product to the councils, are appealing the judgment to the Full Court of the Federal Court.

    S&P told the ABC in a statement that it is not responsible for investment decisions and investors need to do their own analysis.

    "It is bad policy to enforce a legal duty against a party like S&P, which has no relationship with investors who use rating opinions, yet impose no responsibility on those investors to conduct their own due diligence," the statement read.

    "It turns S&P's predictions about the future into guarantees."

    Standard & Poor's decision to give the investments a AAA or gold star investment ranking was criticised by Justine Jagot in November 2012.

    The judge found S&P made negligent misrepresentations and had misled the councils.

    It was the first court ruling of its kind worldwide against a credit ratings agency.

    Justice Jagot said a description of the CPDOs as "grotesquely complicated" was accurate.

    ABN AMRO and Local Government Financial Services (LGFS) were also found to have behaved in a misleading and deceptive way.

    LGFS also was found to have breached its fiduciary duty to the councils.

    Litigation funder John Walker, from Bentham IMF, financed the case for 12 of the councils.

    He says CPDOs were high risk but were marketed as being as safe.

    "It turned out to be very risky. It was simply a bet," he said

    Council says any overturn would have significant impact

    Bathurst Regional Council was awarded more than $1 million in compensation by the court.

    It originally got just $67,043 of its $1 million investment back.

    Bathurst Regional Council Mayor Gary Rush says council spending plans will be affected if the judgment is overturned.

    "Having to pay that money back would have a significant impact," he said.

    "It would mean we have to curtail some of the maintenance opportunities or the development of infrastructure opportunities we are currently looking at."

    CPDOs were created by ABN AMRO in 2006 and were described as the "poster child for the excesses of financial engineering" by researchers from the United States Federal Reserve.

    In court documents, an ABN AMRO banker described the product as being like a casino.

    "If you win you start again. If you lose, double your bet. Repeat. You have a great chance of winning (99.9 per cent) 1 pound, but a chance of losing the lot (0.10 per cent) if you lose 11 times in a row," ABN AMRO's David Poet wrote in an email.

    The investments tracked corporate debt but as companies defaulted on their loans during the global financial crisis, the value of the notes was all but wiped out.

    Justice Jagot found S&P rating analysts were "sandbagged" by ABN AMRO into awarding the top investment ranking to the product to make it more appealing to investors.

    Court documents show S&P debated whether the CPDO was worth a AAA rating.

    "You are the wuss for bending over in front of bankers and taking it... you rate something AAA, when it is really A-? You proud of that little mistake?" wrote Sebastian Venus to Derek Ding in May 2007.

    Standard & Poor's is also being sued by 90 local councils, churches and charities for rating toxic mortgage bonds sold by the collapsed investment bank, Lehman Brothers, as AAA.


    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-03/standard--poors-appeals-landmark-ruling-in-favour-of-councils/5293740



    Also in the United States:

    A $5 Billion U.S. Fraud Case Against Standard & Poor's Enters Critical Phase

    Thrilling depositions. Sounds like an oxymoron, right? Not when it comes to civil fraud lawsuits.

    The U.S. Department of Justice has scheduled depositions in its potential landmark suit against rating agency Standard & Poor’s (MHFI). The suit, pending in federal court in California, offers one of the last, best hopes for a full accounting of how the major rating companies allegedly inflated their evaluations of mortgage-backed securities in the runup to the 2008 financial crisis. S&P has admitted that its ratings were woefully inaccurate but has denied it committed fraud or any other wrongdoing.

    Whether the feds can prove the purposeful deception needed to clinch a fraud case—and billions of dollars in damages—will turn on whether government lawyers can get current and former S&P analysts to concede that they knew they were rubber-stamping doomed securities as worthy of AAA ratings. The venue for this showdown will be not the open courtroom but the bland conference rooms in which depositions occur. This case, you see, is unlikely ever to result in a full-dress trial. Instead, once the opposing sides see what the Justice Department can come up with in depositions, a settlement will probably ensue. So depositions are really the main event.

    “As many as nine current and former employees of McGraw Hill Financial Inc.’s Standard & Poor’s unit may be questioned by U.S. Justice Department lawyers as part of a fraud lawsuit against the ratings company. The government has scheduled depositions of six current collateralized-debt obligation analysts, according to a status report filed in federal court in Santa Ana, California. The U.S. is also scheduling depositions of another employee and two ex-employees, according to the joint filing. New York-based S&P has yet to schedule its own depositions. …

    “The Justice Department last year accused S&P of lying about its ratings being free of conflicts of interest and may seek as much as $5 billion civil penalties. S&P has said it will seek evidence that the lawsuit was political retribution by the government because S&P was the only rating company to downgrade U.S. debt in 2011.

    “The company is scheduled to seek to compel the U.S. to hand over internal documents about its decision to sue S&P and not Moody’s Corp. (MCO), which S&P says gave the same ratings as the company did for residential mortgage-backed securities and CDOs backed by those securities. A hearing is scheduled for March.”



    All this bears close attention by anyone concerned about the continuing centrality of rating agencies on Wall Street and in the economy at large.

    http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-01-16/5-billion-u-dot-s-dot-fraud-case-against-standard-and-poors-enters-critical-phase

    avatar
    flamming_python

    Posts : 3320
    Points : 3404
    Join date : 2012-01-30

    Re: Russian Economy General News: #1

    Post  flamming_python on Wed Mar 26, 2014 8:32 pm

    Well obviously none of them are perfect. They will ostensibly have their own problems with favouritism, corruption, etc...

    But evidence of them being part of the Western media-info-financial blitzkrieg network used by the US and pals to bludgeon and smear the economy and perception of anyone they don't fancy - I have found not.

    At the very least, they haven't been conscripted into war effort thus far, and have avoided getting their work corrupted by politics.

    Nothing wrong with Russia setting up their own agencies in theory, it's just that they won't be as objective - they will deliberately paint Russia's situation in a better light than it actually is, this is how people/investors will perceive them too and that makes this entire project a worthless waste of resources. Better for Matvinenko to focus her energy on something instead that will bring clear benefits.
    avatar
    sepheronx

    Posts : 7113
    Points : 7385
    Join date : 2009-08-06
    Age : 29
    Location : Canada

    Re: Russian Economy General News: #1

    Post  sepheronx on Wed Mar 26, 2014 9:14 pm

    flamming_python wrote:Well obviously none of them are perfect. They will ostensibly have their own problems with favouritism, corruption, etc...

    But evidence of them being part of the Western media-info-financial blitzkrieg network used by the US and pals to bludgeon and smear the economy and perception of anyone they don't fancy - I have found not.

    At the very least, they haven't been conscripted into war effort thus far, and have avoided getting their work corrupted by politics.

    Nothing wrong with Russia setting up their own agencies in theory, it's just that they won't be as objective - they will deliberately paint Russia's situation in a better light than it actually is, this is how people/investors will perceive them too and that makes this entire project a worthless waste of resources. Better for Matvinenko to focus her energy on something instead that will bring clear benefits.

    I would expect you would have noticed that triple a rated countries from these so called rating agencies, are highly burdened with debt and stagnation (Japan and USA). Yes, it is a political tool, always has been. Doesnt help either that moodies and s&p are located in NY.

    Austin

    Posts : 6805
    Points : 7194
    Join date : 2010-05-08
    Location : India

    Re: Russian Economy General News: #1

    Post  Austin on Thu Mar 27, 2014 7:47 am

    Sad  Sad  Sad

    Ulyukaev: GDP growth to be ca. 0.6% if capital outflow reaches $100 billion in 2014
    Economy
    March 27, 10:50 UTC+4



    MOSCOW, March 27. /ITAR-TASS/. If capital outflow from Russia reaches $100 billion, GDP growth will be around 0.6%, Russian Minister of Economic Development Alexei Ulyukaev stated on Thursday.

    He recalled that, according to the ministry’s estimates, capital outflow is estimated at $60 billion in the first quarter of 2014.
    “If we take it as a single capital outflow wave, we will reach a moderate capital outflow volume at around $100 billion annually. In case of this scenario, the economic growth forecast is reduced to 0.6% of GDP,” he said.

    In this case, investments will drop by 1.3%.

    Austin

    Posts : 6805
    Points : 7194
    Join date : 2010-05-08
    Location : India

    Re: Russian Economy General News: #1

    Post  Austin on Thu Mar 27, 2014 8:04 am

    GDP growth may reach 1.8-1.9% in 2014
    Economy
    March 27, 10:55 UTC+4
    MOSCOW, March 27. /ITAR-TASS/. Russia’s GDP growth may reach 1.8-1.9% in 2014, Russian Minister of Economic Development Alexei Ulyukaev said at the largest Russian annual forum of professional financial community on Thursday.

    In his words, falling investments affect foreign and domestic investors.

    “Capital outflow results from this. We forecast a normal GDP growth rate of around two percent — 1.8-1.9% with due account of production factors. Around two percent,” he said.

    Austin

    Posts : 6805
    Points : 7194
    Join date : 2010-05-08
    Location : India

    Re: Russian Economy General News: #1

    Post  Austin on Fri Mar 28, 2014 2:22 pm

    Negitive GDP Growth ?



    Ulyukayev: Russia's GDP will fall by 1.8% in capital outflow of $ 150 billion


    MOSCOW, March 28 - Prime. Economic decline in Russia this year could reach 1.8% in capital outflows in excess of $ 150 billion, and investment - will be reduced by 8%, said Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev.


    "If the outflow goes for $ 150 billion, we have negative growth in the region goes. We will be somewhere minus 8% investment and minus 1.8% economic growth" - the minister said during a seminar with representatives of the executive authorities of subjects RF.


    The World Bank on Wednesday also gave an estimate that the capital outflow of $ 150 billion in the case of shock because of the events of the Russian economy in the Crimea, the decline in GDP will be 1.8%.

    http://ria.ru/economy/20140328/1001463724.html



    avatar
    sepheronx

    Posts : 7113
    Points : 7385
    Join date : 2009-08-06
    Age : 29
    Location : Canada

    Re: Russian Economy General News: #1

    Post  sepheronx on Fri Mar 28, 2014 3:08 pm

    I think there may have been a translation error. Cause Itar Tass is saying he said growth of 1.8%

    Kurdin is saying 0.6%

    RIAN has had hickups in the past but whatever.

    Oops, read it as rian not ria. Anyway, lets see where it goes. Only a 1.8% decline is a lot better than 9% in 2008. That being said, it was that 9% that lit the fire under many butts to get Russia to modernize economy faster. This will in now turn light fires to get the banking sector under better control as well as diversify customers.

    Austin

    Posts : 6805
    Points : 7194
    Join date : 2010-05-08
    Location : India

    Re: Russian Economy General News: #1

    Post  Austin on Fri Mar 28, 2014 6:30 pm

    No he means -ve 1.6 %

    Comparision between Chinese and US Debt

    http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/2014/03/28/chinas-monumental-ponzi-heres-how-it-unravels/

    At the turn of the century credit market debt outstanding in the US was about $27 trillion, and we’ve not been slouches attempting to borrow our way to prosperity. Total credit market debt is now $59 trillion—-so America has been burying itself in debt at nearly a 7% annual rate.

    But move over America!  As the 21st century dawned, China had about $1 trillion of credit market debt outstanding, but after a blistering pace of “borrow and build” for 14 years it now carries nearly $25 trillion.  But here’s the thing: this stupendous 25X growth of debt occurred in the context of an economic system designed and run by elderly party apparatchiks who had learned their economic from Mao’s Little Red Book!

    Wonder how much is Russias total credit market debt
    avatar
    sepheronx

    Posts : 7113
    Points : 7385
    Join date : 2009-08-06
    Age : 29
    Location : Canada

    Re: Russian Economy General News: #1

    Post  sepheronx on Fri Mar 28, 2014 6:58 pm

    Austin wrote:No he means -ve 1.6 %

    Comparision between Chinese and US Debt

    http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/2014/03/28/chinas-monumental-ponzi-heres-how-it-unravels/

    At the turn of the century credit market debt outstanding in the US was about $27 trillion, and we’ve not been slouches attempting to borrow our way to prosperity. Total credit market debt is now $59 trillion—-so America has been burying itself in debt at nearly a 7% annual rate.

    But move over America!  As the 21st century dawned, China had about $1 trillion of credit market debt outstanding, but after a blistering pace of “borrow and build” for 14 years it now carries nearly $25 trillion.  But here’s the thing: this stupendous 25X growth of debt occurred in the context of an economic system designed and run by elderly party apparatchiks who had learned their economic from Mao’s Little Red Book!

    Wonder how much is Russias total credit market debt

    You dont say growth in the same sentance as - funds.

    Kurdin expects $150B outflow and .6% growth

    And

    Expect growth of 1.8-1.9%

    Kinda odd wouldnt you think to say growth then mention negative? Hence why I think ria may have gotten it wrong.
    avatar
    magnumcromagnon

    Posts : 4468
    Points : 4627
    Join date : 2013-12-05
    Location : Pindos ave., Pindosville, Pindosylvania, Pindostan

    Re: Russian Economy General News: #1

    Post  magnumcromagnon on Fri Mar 28, 2014 7:07 pm

    Austin wrote:No he means -ve 1.6 %

    Comparision between Chinese and US Debt

    http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/2014/03/28/chinas-monumental-ponzi-heres-how-it-unravels/

    At the turn of the century credit market debt outstanding in the US was about $27 trillion, and we’ve not been slouches attempting to borrow our way to prosperity. Total credit market debt is now $59 trillion—-so America has been burying itself in debt at nearly a 7% annual rate.

    But move over America!  As the 21st century dawned, China had about $1 trillion of credit market debt outstanding, but after a blistering pace of “borrow and build” for 14 years it now carries nearly $25 trillion.  But here’s the thing: this stupendous 25X growth of debt occurred in the context of an economic system designed and run by elderly party apparatchiks who had learned their economic from Mao’s Little Red Book!

    Wonder how much is Russias total credit market debt

    David Stockman has "0" credibility, and that goes for any economist from the Reagan era for that matter, he wont tell you that the repeal of FDR's New Deal regulations of securities and derivatives under Reagan, George Bush Sr., and Bill Clinton administrations are the source of all of the instability in the world economy. When securities were regulated Americans had far better economics circumstances, but since the repeal of regulations in the Early 80's Americans have had to live with recessions at the beginning and end of every decade! We had a recession in the late 80's - early 90's, then we had a recession in the late 90's - early 00's, and now were dealing with the most severe recession since the Great Depression in the late 00's - early 2010's and we see little evidence of the world economy recovering before the end of the decade and it wont recover until we reverse the repeal and roll-back of the New Deal regulations!!!
    avatar
    flamming_python

    Posts : 3320
    Points : 3404
    Join date : 2012-01-30

    Re: Russian Economy General News: #1

    Post  flamming_python on Fri Mar 28, 2014 7:50 pm

    sepheronx wrote:Kurdin expects $150B outflow and .6% growth

    And

    Expect growth of 1.8-1.9%

    Kinda odd wouldnt you think to say growth then mention negative? Hence why I think ria may have gotten it wrong.

    Well, there is at least one thing you can say about Kudrin and his predictions and that's that -

    At least the reality is never worse, than what Kudrin predicts Very Happy

    Quite frankly, I'd be satisfied with 0.6%, considering that Russia basically just swipped the Crimea and made it part of its own territory! I still maintain that's it a bit of an economic deadweight without the rest of East Ukraine, but nontheless it's worth a lot more than a couple percentage points in GDP growth for a year or two; with some investment some decent industries could be revived there, not to mention tourism of course. And then there are the gas fields in the Black Sea, they will take a lot of money and time to exploit but potentially they are worth their weight in gold-gas. But the main thing is not their economic value, but that they will be denied to Western majors  What a Face
    avatar
    sepheronx

    Posts : 7113
    Points : 7385
    Join date : 2009-08-06
    Age : 29
    Location : Canada

    Re: Russian Economy General News: #1

    Post  sepheronx on Fri Mar 28, 2014 8:09 pm

    flamming_python wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:Kurdin expects $150B outflow and .6% growth

    And

    Expect growth of 1.8-1.9%

    Kinda odd wouldnt you think to say growth then mention negative? Hence why I think ria may have gotten it wrong.

    Well, there is at least one thing you can say about Kudrin and his predictions and that's that -

    At least the reality is never worse, than what Kudrin predicts Very Happy

    Quite frankly, I'd be satisfied with 0.6%, considering that Russia basically just swipped the Crimea and made it part of its own territory! I still maintain that's it a bit of an economic deadweight without the rest of East Ukraine, but nontheless it's worth a lot more than a couple percentage points in GDP growth for a year or two; with some investment some decent industries could be revived there, not to mention tourism of course. And then there are the gas fields in the Black Sea, they will take a lot of money and time to exploit but potentially they are worth their weight in gold-gas. But the main thing is not their economic value, but that they will be denied to Western majors  What a Face

    Crimea affair is opening up something interesting here. It could pave way for other parts of Ukraine to leave, and as a friend from work (whom moved here no more than 5 months ago from Kiev) said: "East Ukraine is fed up with the gov".

    That said, Crimea is massive potential for tourism as many Russians travel there for vacation. Ease passport visas for tourists from other countries and guarentee you they will flock to crimea, especially if the tourism spots are well developed and isnt expensive. Then add in gas/oil and then agriculture and whatever other industry, and Russia can turn Crimea into its Costa Rica.

    Then there is the military side of things.

    Investments into Crimea will pay off eventually if Russians continue to use it as a major vacation hotspot and also its control of oil and gas flow to Europe.

    If banking sector can be dealt with fast, then Russia will gain more from the sanctions than before. As well, Russia should make amends with Iran as thats a 70+ million population economy waiting to get investments and Russian business.

    Putin already said that he is pushing for more investments and deals with Africa. Middle east should also be another one.

    Austin

    Posts : 6805
    Points : 7194
    Join date : 2010-05-08
    Location : India

    Re: Russian Economy General News: #1

    Post  Austin on Sat Mar 29, 2014 4:59 am

    magnumcromagnon wrote:
    Austin wrote:No he means -ve 1.6 %

    Comparision between Chinese and US Debt

    http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/2014/03/28/chinas-monumental-ponzi-heres-how-it-unravels/

    At the turn of the century credit market debt outstanding in the US was about $27 trillion, and we’ve not been slouches attempting to borrow our way to prosperity. Total credit market debt is now $59 trillion—-so America has been burying itself in debt at nearly a 7% annual rate.

    But move over America!  As the 21st century dawned, China had about $1 trillion of credit market debt outstanding, but after a blistering pace of “borrow and build” for 14 years it now carries nearly $25 trillion.  But here’s the thing: this stupendous 25X growth of debt occurred in the context of an economic system designed and run by elderly party apparatchiks who had learned their economic from Mao’s Little Red Book!

    Wonder how much is Russias total credit market debt

    David Stockman has "0" credibility, and that goes for any economist from the Reagan era for that matter, he wont tell you that the repeal of FDR's New Deal regulations of securities and derivatives under Reagan, George Bush Sr., and Bill Clinton administrations are the source of all of the instability in the world economy. When securities were regulated Americans had far better economics circumstances, but since the repeal of regulations in the Early 80's Americans have had to live with recessions at the beginning and end of every decade! We had a recession in the late 80's - early 90's, then we had a recession in the late 90's - early 00's, and now were dealing with the most severe recession since the Great Depression in the late 00's - early 2010's and we see little evidence of the world economy recovering before the end of the decade and it wont recover until we reverse the repeal and roll-back of the New Deal regulations!!!

    He has far better credibility than any American MSM commentator who covers Economy and he has always put facts and figures on the table unless you can dispute those and prove other wise.

    Stockman resigned from the Reagan administration in 1985 when he disagreed with his economic policies

    De-regulation has been done under every adminstration till date
    avatar
    magnumcromagnon

    Posts : 4468
    Points : 4627
    Join date : 2013-12-05
    Location : Pindos ave., Pindosville, Pindosylvania, Pindostan

    Re: Russian Economy General News: #1

    Post  magnumcromagnon on Sat Mar 29, 2014 6:46 am

    Austin wrote:
    magnumcromagnon wrote:
    Austin wrote:No he means -ve 1.6 %

    Comparision between Chinese and US Debt

    http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/2014/03/28/chinas-monumental-ponzi-heres-how-it-unravels/

    At the turn of the century credit market debt outstanding in the US was about $27 trillion, and we’ve not been slouches attempting to borrow our way to prosperity. Total credit market debt is now $59 trillion—-so America has been burying itself in debt at nearly a 7% annual rate.

    But move over America!  As the 21st century dawned, China had about $1 trillion of credit market debt outstanding, but after a blistering pace of “borrow and build” for 14 years it now carries nearly $25 trillion.  But here’s the thing: this stupendous 25X growth of debt occurred in the context of an economic system designed and run by elderly party apparatchiks who had learned their economic from Mao’s Little Red Book!

    Wonder how much is Russias total credit market debt

    David Stockman has "0" credibility, and that goes for any economist from the Reagan era for that matter, he wont tell you that the repeal of FDR's New Deal regulations of securities and derivatives under Reagan, George Bush Sr., and Bill Clinton administrations are the source of all of the instability in the world economy. When securities were regulated Americans had far better economics circumstances, but since the repeal of regulations in the Early 80's Americans have had to live with recessions at the beginning and end of every decade! We had a recession in the late 80's - early 90's, then we had a recession in the late 90's - early 00's, and now were dealing with the most severe recession since the Great Depression in the late 00's - early 2010's and we see little evidence of the world economy recovering before the end of the decade and it wont recover until we reverse the repeal and roll-back of the New Deal regulations!!!

    He has far better credibility than any American MSM commentator who covers Economy and he has always put facts and figures on the table unless you can dispute those and prove other wise.

    Stockman resigned from the Reagan administration in 1985 when he disagreed with his economic policies

    De-regulation has been done under every adminstration till date

    Opposing the economic austerity and de-regulation after the fact doesn't make him a revolutionary, it just means he was late to the party...actually he's not even advocating that, he still promotes the favorite "economic son" of the British empire, called "neo-liberalism" so blaming poor people and advocating austerity is still in the cards. The serious de-regulation of securities will go down as one the biggest rapes of justices known to man...the countless deaths by starvation, sickness, cold temperatures in the 3rd world caused by grain, medicine, and oil speculators alone is staggering. Neo-liberalism and globalization was the justification of the crimes against humanity spearheaded by the British empire, in fact the banks that did business in the City of London were the biggest profiteers of the trans-Atlantic slave trade, the same ones who take bailouts and then blame poor people for taking food stamps, those are the same ones who profiteered on slavery:

    http://atlantablackstar.com/2013/08/26/17-major-companies-never-knew-benefited-slavery/
    avatar
    sepheronx

    Posts : 7113
    Points : 7385
    Join date : 2009-08-06
    Age : 29
    Location : Canada

    Re: Russian Economy General News: #1

    Post  sepheronx on Sat Mar 29, 2014 5:30 pm

    Russia will now have to concentrate on domestic demand and increase standards of living, as their population will need to keep Russia afloat. Obama right now is trying to convince India and China for sanctions. So any country willing to deal with Russia and to say to hell with USA, should get total economic and military support from Russia. That includes North Korea. All the while pushing NK to ease a change in their country to create rights for NK citizens, so that could be another F U to the west.

    India has a lot to lose since they rely on Russian military tech.
    avatar
    Hannibal Barca

    Posts : 1261
    Points : 1275
    Join date : 2013-12-13

    Re: Russian Economy General News: #1

    Post  Hannibal Barca on Sat Mar 29, 2014 7:55 pm

    A plus vote from me. They (USA) lost track with reality cause now half their puppets are ready to flee them. Hit them now hard and it's over. This can really be a checkmate from nowhere.
    avatar
    sepheronx

    Posts : 7113
    Points : 7385
    Join date : 2009-08-06
    Age : 29
    Location : Canada

    Re: Russian Economy General News: #1

    Post  sepheronx on Sun Mar 30, 2014 4:05 am

    I have read this: http://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/48291/

    As one commentor has said, he does not trust Belarus thus all production should be done in St.Petersburg. I would say continue to push economic development in belarus (even if Lukashenko is trying to have 100% control of his countries economy), and hope they will not jump ship (I doubt that though).

    All high tech, heavy industrial production, and engine making companies should be done in Russia. All small things can be purchased outside, which it already is. I am surprised that Russia is barely even advertising its Elbrus 4C processor (besides mention of it on MCST, I cannot find anything else). I cannot even find photos of the recent tech show in Moscow which apparently showcased the Elbrus 4C. They really need to push the development of these and really get them out to the open market in Russia, to get people off of Intel/AMD and their control. Once they can get these into the people's hands, along with any other microprocessor development, then any further embargoes will mean squat.
    avatar
    GarryB

    Posts : 17877
    Points : 18439
    Join date : 2010-03-30
    Location : New Zealand

    Re: Russian Economy General News: #1

    Post  GarryB on Sun Mar 30, 2014 9:24 am

    India has a lot to lose since they rely on Russian military tech.

    Russia should not put pressure on India regarding who India can or cannot trade with.

    At the end of the day Russia should continue to pursue trade with any country willing to trade with them.

    This sanction BS is a western measure of bullying.

    Austin

    Posts : 6805
    Points : 7194
    Join date : 2010-05-08
    Location : India

    Re: Russian Economy General News: #1

    Post  Austin on Sun Mar 30, 2014 1:45 pm

    sepheronx wrote:Russia will now have to concentrate on domestic demand and increase standards of living, as their population will need to keep Russia afloat. Obama right now is trying to convince India and China for sanctions. So any country willing to deal with Russia and to say to hell with USA, should get total economic and military support from Russia. That includes North Korea. All the while pushing NK to ease a change in their country to create rights for NK citizens, so that could be another F U to the west.

    India has a lot to lose since they rely on Russian military tech.

    Neither India nor China nor Russia fundamentally believe in the policy of sanctions ....unless it comes from UN.

    So US will not be able to convince India or China not to trade with Russia.

    Sanctions is a Western phenomena built for their own Pleasure .......Trying that on Russia ......well hard luck

    Austin

    Posts : 6805
    Points : 7194
    Join date : 2010-05-08
    Location : India

    Re: Russian Economy General News: #1

    Post  Austin on Sun Mar 30, 2014 2:27 pm

    Peter Schiff: It's not the weather, the economy is headed towards recession!  ( Interview starts at 4:50 )



    at 12:25 "What doesn't make sense to me is that we can create all this money, we can print all this money, and prices not be going up".

    Peter Schiff suggests buying Gold , Silver and move away from USD 

    Austin

    Posts : 6805
    Points : 7194
    Join date : 2010-05-08
    Location : India

    Re: Russian Economy General News: #1

    Post  Austin on Sun Mar 30, 2014 7:15 pm

    World Bank Russia Report March 2014

    Fully Report Link ---> http://www.worldbank.org/content/dam/Worldbank/document/eca/RER-31-eng.pdf


    How did Russia’s economy fare in the past year?



    • Economy expanded at an estimated 1.3 percent in 2013, well below the projected rate of 3.6 percent.
    • The ruble came under increasing pressure, triggered by the ongoing deterioration of the current account and by higher volatility in capital outflows.
    • Frail domestic demand dragged the Russian economy close to stagnation.
    • Lack of growth-supporting structural reforms and decreasing profit margins weighted heavily on business sentiments and pushed down industrial and investment activities.
    • The contribution of fixed investment to GDP growth turned negative in 2013, compared to 1.4 percent in 2012.
    • Consumption remained the main growth driver, supported by fast credit and wage growth, yet its pace of expansion more than halved compared to 2012.
    • External demand recovered as expected in the second half of 2013, while exports grew strongly.


    What is the economic outlook for Russia going forward?


    Weaker growth prospects and stabilizing consumption at a lower rate decrease the economic mobility outlook. Recent events around the Crimea crisis have compounded the lingering confidence problem and exposed the economic weaknesses of the economic growth model, which is based on large investment projects, continued increases in public wages and transfers.
    Given the higher risk environment -- since political uncertainties around the Crimea crisis in early March 2014 led to an increase in market volatility, the World Bank developed two alternative scenarios for Russia’s 2014-2015 growth outlook.



    • The low-risk scenario assumes a limited and short-lived impact of the Crimea crisis and projects growth to slow to 1.1 percent in 2014 and slightly picking up to 1.3 percent in 2015.
    • The high-risk scenario assumes a more severe shock to economic and investment activities if the geopolitical situation worsens and projects a contraction in output of 1.8 percent for 2014.


    Impact on economic mobility and continued middle-class formation in Russia:




    • Consumption growth is forecast to decrease to about 2 percent for 2014-2015 in the low-risk scenario, compared to 3.4 percent in 2013 and 6.9 percent in 2012

    Russia’s long-term outlook will depend on a sustained positive shift in investors’ and consumers’ confidence.

    • Structural reforms will need to be started in the coming years.
    • Inefficiencies in factor allocation across the economy will need to be addressed, so that larger private investment is attracted in a sustained manner and on a larger scale.
    • The quality of regulatory and market institutions will have to improve, so that rules are implemented evenly.
    avatar
    magnumcromagnon

    Posts : 4468
    Points : 4627
    Join date : 2013-12-05
    Location : Pindos ave., Pindosville, Pindosylvania, Pindostan

    Re: Russian Economy General News: #1

    Post  magnumcromagnon on Sun Mar 30, 2014 7:36 pm

    Austin wrote:World Bank Russia Report March 2014

    Fully Report Link ---> http://www.worldbank.org/content/dam/Worldbank/document/eca/RER-31-eng.pdf


    How did Russia’s economy fare in the past year?



    • Economy expanded at an estimated 1.3 percent in 2013, well below the projected rate of 3.6 percent.
    • The ruble came under increasing pressure, triggered by the ongoing deterioration of the current account and by higher volatility in capital outflows.
    • Frail domestic demand dragged the Russian economy close to stagnation.
    • Lack of growth-supporting structural reforms and decreasing profit margins weighted heavily on business sentiments and pushed down industrial and investment activities.
    • The contribution of fixed investment to GDP growth turned negative in 2013, compared to 1.4 percent in 2012.
    • Consumption remained the main growth driver, supported by fast credit and wage growth, yet its pace of expansion more than halved compared to 2012.
    • External demand recovered as expected in the second half of 2013, while exports grew strongly.


    What is the economic outlook for Russia going forward?


    Weaker growth prospects and stabilizing consumption at a lower rate decrease the economic mobility outlook. Recent events around the Crimea crisis have compounded the lingering confidence problem and exposed the economic weaknesses of the economic growth model, which is based on large investment projects, continued increases in public wages and transfers.
    Given the higher risk environment -- since political uncertainties around the Crimea crisis in early March 2014 led to an increase in market volatility, the World Bank developed two alternative scenarios for Russia’s 2014-2015 growth outlook.



    • The low-risk scenario assumes a limited and short-lived impact of the Crimea crisis and projects growth to slow to 1.1 percent in 2014 and slightly picking up to 1.3 percent in 2015.
    • The high-risk scenario assumes a more severe shock to economic and investment activities if the geopolitical situation worsens and projects a contraction in output of 1.8 percent for 2014.


    Impact on economic mobility and continued middle-class formation in Russia:




    • Consumption growth is forecast to decrease to about 2 percent for 2014-2015 in the low-risk scenario, compared to 3.4 percent in 2013 and 6.9 percent in 2012

    Russia’s long-term outlook will depend on a sustained positive shift in investors’ and consumers’ confidence.

    • Structural reforms will need to be started in the coming years.
    • Inefficiencies in factor allocation across the economy will need to be addressed, so that larger private investment is attracted in a sustained manner and on a larger scale.
    • The quality of regulatory and market institutions will have to improve, so that rules are implemented evenly.


    The IMF/World Bank lacks credibility, the economic measures they recommend always tend to leave countries worse off than they were before (hence the PIIGS). Notice the pattern? Under Boris Yeltsin Russia had "positive" structural reforms, under Putin Russia has "negative" structural reforms, the only reforms that are considered positive to the IMF/World Bank is harsh austerity, as well as all things of value in your country owned and dominated by foreign companies for pennies-on-the-dollar.

    Austin

    Posts : 6805
    Points : 7194
    Join date : 2010-05-08
    Location : India

    Re: Russian Economy General News: #1

    Post  Austin on Mon Mar 31, 2014 6:23 pm

    Siluanov: in terms of sanctions is necessary to concentrate efforts

    MOSCOW, March 31. / ITAR-TASS /. Russian Ministry of Finance has the negative consequences of sanctions against Russia and believes that in these conditions the concentration of efforts on all fronts, said the TV channel "Russia 24" Finance Minister Anton Siluanov.

    "We see that the negative of this is - recognized Siluanov. - The question is - what will happen next sanction measures. Nevertheless, in these circumstances we in any case should not slacken their positions on monetary policy, the budget, on the contrary - need to focus and mobilize. "

    "Sanctions have already been announced and are - reminded the minister. - The most annoying thing is that this list may change, and there is nervousness as to what measures can be taken." According to the finance minister, has already closed credit position on Russia, investors have been slow to invest in Russian bonds, investment projects on the territory of the Russian Federation.

    "We're seeing some pressure on our trading partners are redefining relations with Russia - said Siluanov. - All this adversely affects the Russian economy and the economy of those countries with which entrepreneurs have been agreed." Also increased yield of Russian securities, which means additional risks that investors felt because of the sanctions.

    Speaking about Russian readiness of banks to changes in the situation on the foreign market and their willingness to attract liquidity in the domestic market, Siluanov noted that "we have enough foreign reserves we have the means significant enough government funds. At the most extreme case we have again 2008-2009 years, when we helped our businesses pay on foreign loans, currency helped aid included in Tier II capital. " "The experience we have this, if necessary, will use these mechanisms, and this time," - said the Minister.


    The Ministry of Finance is ready to fall in world oil prices


    Ministry is ready to fall in world oil prices if the U.S. begins exporting strategic reserves of oil, said Siluanov.

    "The pressure on the country's exporters, printing U.S. reserves - all of which can lead to the fact that prices will fall, he said. - But the question is - how long and to what level?" "We need to be ready for it," - said the Minister.

    Siluanov recalled that major oil exporters such as Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries, "in recent years increased their spending budget and have a balanced budget (with the price of oil - Ed.), About $ 90 per barrel." However, he noted that the federal budget of the Russian Federation in 2014 was calculated at a price of $ 101 per barrel, the budget 2015-2016 - $ 100 per barrel.

    The Finance Ministry of the Russian Federation is no reason to believe that Ukraine will not pay for the debts

    According Siluanova, the Finance Ministry has no reason to believe that Ukraine will not pay their debts.

    "We believe that the grounds for saying that Ukraine will not pay for the debts, not yet, - he said. - We hope to timely payment of obligations."



    http://itar-tass.com/ekonomika/1085982

    Austin

    Posts : 6805
    Points : 7194
    Join date : 2010-05-08
    Location : India

    Re: Russian Economy General News: #1

    Post  Austin on Mon Mar 31, 2014 6:59 pm

    So Russian Finance Ministry is preparing for 2008-2009 crises in worst case.

    As of Today Russian Forex is $486 billion

    http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/RUREFEG:IND
    avatar
    sepheronx

    Posts : 7113
    Points : 7385
    Join date : 2009-08-06
    Age : 29
    Location : Canada

    Re: Russian Economy General News: #1

    Post  sepheronx on Mon Mar 31, 2014 11:06 pm

    I dont see that happening again as that was -9%, which was quite a bit. If they predict 1.8% -2% then that is a drop in the ocean.

    Although, im kinda surprised they didnt balance their budget before hand, like saudi did. But this whole conflict has actually raised gas/oil prices and I doubt industries want that price to drop. As well, at least Russia has securities like gold and other resources. Convert a lot of their US bonds to gold and start pressuring USA.

    One thing for sure is this will change Russia's economic policies and will lead to a stronger economy. Maybe not some uber rich like China or USA, but a more secure and strengthened economy, wherr its average Russian will benifit, rather than what is seen now in most countries, small amount of rich and rest poor.

    Sponsored content

    Re: Russian Economy General News: #1

    Post  Sponsored content


      Current date/time is Fri Aug 17, 2018 9:35 pm