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    India's Foreign policy

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    Tsavo Lion

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    Re: India's Foreign policy

    Post  Tsavo Lion on Sun Nov 04, 2018 7:04 am

    If at some point India can't get F-16 spares from the US, Venezuela can sell them some- they got nothing to lose & can't fly them anyway. But if the production is set up with full transfer of technology, I don't see how they'll be grounded for lack of support!
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    medo

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    Re: India's Foreign policy

    Post  medo on Sun Nov 04, 2018 10:31 am

    Be real. Did US give production of F404 engines to India? No, they have to import them from US. Did Israel give production of EL/M-2032 radar to India? No, they have to import them from Israel. Did UK and France give production of avionics, ejection seats, radomes, etc to India? No, they have to import them from UK and France. In case of sanctions Indian "domestic" Tejas is grounded. Why do you think US will give full techonology of F-16 production to India? In best case India will produce bodies and wings like in Tejas, all the rest will come from US. In case of sanctions Indian F-16 will be absolutely grounded and electronics blocked by US.
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    Tsavo Lion

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    Re: India's Foreign policy

    Post  Tsavo Lion on Sun Nov 04, 2018 5:32 pm

    In that case, they'll have to take that risk in the name of diversification. Those parts they'll produce & the delivered F-16s can be sold to others, like Taiwan, Egypt, S. Korea, etc., hurting US businesses that won't get those &/ related orders.
    India already got away with getting nukes, buying Iranian oil & Russian S-400s. They have big trade surplus & $ to spend that the US MIC & other firms want. Sanctions won't stay forever even if they r imposed.
    For decades to come, India will be too valuable regional player on the Global chessboard for the USA to lose.
    For them, Russia-India- China + Japan-S. Korea mending fences & trading in their currencies will be the last nail in the coffin of "the sole remaining superpower". https://zen.yandex.ru/media/anime/iaponiia-iscet-soiuznikov-protiv-ameriki-5bd45e4ed0549400ab5b4d1a?&from=feed


    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Mon Nov 05, 2018 3:45 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : add link)
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    GunshipDemocracy

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    Re: India's Foreign policy

    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:08 am

    Tsavo Lion wrote:In that case, they'll have to take that risk in the name of diversification.

    this would be interesting to see Modi decision. US wont transfer all tech to build F-16 from one side. Similarly as French didn't want to (though they supposed to) India. Diversification is important. West however has proven that there is no diversification with them. You never get any tech even or older stuff.

    If Make in India is important for Modi then MiG-35 will be his choice as Russians already declared readiness to transfer all tech with license.





    For decades to come, India will be too valuable regional player on the Global chessboard for the USA to lose.

    If India wished to remain regional partner US would be utmost happy. The game now is about being a global partner.
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    Tsavo Lion

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    Re: India's Foreign policy

    Post  Tsavo Lion on Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:43 am

    They can aspire to be a global power but her location in S. Asia next to Pakistan, Nepal, Myanmar, Thailand & their ally China with direct access only to the Indian Ocean won't allow it.
    Japan, UK & USA r too far away.
    More often than not, the Indian subcontinent was invaded & colonized by outsiders. internal problems is the reason why the Gypsies (Roma) came out of India.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India#Medieval_India
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colonial_India

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    GunshipDemocracy

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    Re: India's Foreign policy

    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:53 am

    Tsavo Lion wrote:They can aspire to be a global power but her location in S. Asia next to Pakistan, Nepal, Myanmar, Thailand & their ally China with direct access only to the Indian Ocean won't allow it.
    Japan, UK & USA r too far away.
    More often than not, the Indian subcontinent was invaded & colonized by outsiders. internal problems is the reason why the Gypsies (Roma) came out of India.


    UK is global player in era of vanishing from scene. They are not even in EU anymore. Japan has more chances though is both under US occupation and with decreasing population.

    India? Access to Indian Ocean = access to any ocean. UK has access to North and Irish Seas too. Indian demographic and economic potential is unstoppable in foreseeable future. They likely will be bigger then US economically in 20-30 years. No they already started to play global with saying no to US about S-400.
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    Tsavo Lion

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    Re: India's Foreign policy

    Post  Tsavo Lion on Mon Nov 05, 2018 5:16 am

    UK is global player in era of vanishing from scene. They are not even in EU anymore. ..Access to Indian Ocean = access to any ocean. No they already started to play global with saying no to US about S-400.
    The UK is a financial global power & has islands in all oceans but the Arctic, as is France. She's building a 2nd CV & has nukes on SSBNs.
    To get to Atlantic, Med. Sea & Pacific, several choke points r in the way; to avoid them, Indian Navy ships & subs will need to go around Africa & Australia. How many overseas bases does India have?
    Turkey also said no to the US about the S-400, but that doesn't make her a global power.
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    GunshipDemocracy

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    Re: India's Foreign policy

    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:34 am

    Tsavo Lion wrote:
    UK is global player in era of vanishing from scene. They are not even in EU anymore. ..Access to Indian Ocean = access to any ocean. No they already started to play global with saying no to US about S-400.
    The UK is a financial global power & has islands in all oceans but the Arctic, as is France. She's building a 2nd CV & has nukes on SSBNs.
    To get to Atlantic, Med. Sea & Pacific, several choke points r in the way; to avoid them, Indian Navy ships & subs will need to go around Africa & Australia. How many overseas bases does India have?
    Turkey also said no to the US about the S-400, but that doesn't make her a global power.


    Country......................population..billions......................GDP (PPP)
    India..........................1,35..........................................$10.385 trillion (est 2018)
    UK..............................0,067.........................................$2,9.Trillion (2017 IMF)

    UK is fading star. India is rising fast. There is financial center but for how long without colonies to steal from? One likes or not Anglo-Saxon world is coming to an end. India in 10 years will be 10x UK economy. How much do you think Indian can then spend on tech and nukes? True, no bases at the moment. But do you think this is constant? You got money and army you'll find bases. UK is gonna crumble and India is gonna raise.

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    Tsavo Lion

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    Re: India's Foreign policy

    Post  Tsavo Lion on Tue Nov 06, 2018 5:44 am

    One likes or not Anglo-Saxon world is coming to an end. India in 10 years will be 10x UK economy.
    True, but it'll take decades, & the UK isn't only allied with US, Canada, Australia & NZ but also France & Japan. In the meantime, India may implode into several states that may then clash among themselves, & a lot sooner than China. With Hindus, Sikhs, Buddhists, Muslims & Christians often at each others throats + Kashmir & Assam insurgencies, it may be enough to prevent her staying together:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_India
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Kashmir_separatist_movement
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurgency_in_Northeast_India

    What is the North – South transport corridor? Will India be able to expand into Central Asia, bypassing RF & PRC?


    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:18 am; edited 2 times in total (Reason for editing : add link)
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    GarryB

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    Re: India's Foreign policy

    Post  GarryB on Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:42 am

    If at some point India can't get F-16 spares from the US, Venezuela can sell them some- they got nothing to lose & can't fly them anyway. But if the production is set up with full transfer of technology, I don't see how they'll be grounded for lack of support!

    Over time and through normal use parts wear out and need to be replaced... the parts the Indians would need will be the parts Venezuela couldn't replace either so they wont have any new parts to sell them.

    I doubt they would even get full transfer of technology for the reason that they could make extra money selling parts to venezuela...

    In that case, they'll have to take that risk in the name of diversification. Those parts they'll produce & the delivered F-16s can be sold to others, like Taiwan, Egypt, S. Korea, etc., hurting US businesses that won't get those &/ related orders.

    The US wont let them produce the parts that need replacing all the time and if they sold parts to Venezuela or Egypt or SK or Taiwan then they wont be selling them the parts they need that get worn out during normal use... and the US will likely sanction India and anyone who buys their parts...

    India already got away with getting nukes, buying Iranian oil & Russian S-400s.

    Ummm... no, no, and no. India getting nukes cost US sanctions until about 2012 when the US was tiring of Pakistan and wanted an ally that was not so friendly with China because China is the next big enemy. India will likely get a waiver for buying Iranian oil but only for 6 months and they will need to reduce and eventually end importing it... which I don't think they will agree to... so sanctions are likely there too. And with the S-400 it seems to be buy F-16s or get sanctions.

    Sanctions won't stay forever even if they r imposed.

    Sanctions will force them to look elsewhere.... once they have looked elsewhere... why look back?

    For decades to come, India will be too valuable regional player on the Global chessboard for the USA to lose.

    You'd think, but they still seem to treat them like crap.

    If India wished to remain regional partner US would be utmost happy. The game now is about being a global partner.

    Coffee spill on a desk in the US and instead of India is our global partner, it was mistranslated into India is out global hamster...

    They can aspire to be a global power but her location in S. Asia next to Pakistan, Nepal, Myanmar, Thailand & their ally China with direct access only to the Indian Ocean won't allow it.
    Japan, UK & USA r too far away.

    Global power for India is about sea power and there is plenty of room for expansion there...

    The UK is a financial global power & has islands in all oceans but the Arctic, as is France.

    The UK has been ignoring its commonwealth and sucking up to the EU for the last few decades... and London being a financial centre might change when it has fully left the EU...

    How many overseas bases does India have?

    How many does it need?

    Turkey also said no to the US about the S-400, but that doesn't make her a global power.

    It makes her an independent power with her own voice... unlike the members of the EU.


    UK is fading star. India is rising fast. There is financial center but for how long without colonies to steal from? One likes or not Anglo-Saxon world is coming to an end. India in 10 years will be 10x UK economy. How much do you think Indian can then spend on tech and nukes? True, no bases at the moment. But do you think this is constant? You got money and army you'll find bases. UK is gonna crumble and India is gonna raise.

    And in a sense you can add the US to that... it is very very powerful now... but the beginning of the end has started and Trump is accelerating the process by threatening everyone with the US dollar... making it a weapon... and therefore toxic...

    The difference is that the UK has little going for it, while the US always has potential... a bit like the world in the 1990s... Russia was down but you could see real strength there and you knew with the right person in charge it could stand up again on its own two feet.

    I can see the US doing that too after its enormous crash and burn... the question is... will they avoid a civil war that could really do damage, or will they collapse but not completely and then rebuild back to a position where they are not a super power, but certainly a world power... but one of several.

    I can't see the UK going very well at all.

    True, but it'll take decades, & the UK isn't only allied with US, Canada, Australia & NZ but also France & Japan.

    She is mother, but most of our exports compete with UK exports... dairy for instance... I really don't see a really prosperous relationship developing with the UK and NZ and it is not that much different for Australia... most real ties these days are sport related and that is mostly because the rest of the ties were cut when the UK entered the EU market and basically forgot about us.
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    Tsavo Lion

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    Re: India's Foreign policy

    Post  Tsavo Lion on Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:13 pm

    India getting nukes cost US sanctions until about 2012 when the US was tiring of Pakistan and wanted an ally that was not so friendly with China because China is the next big enemy. India will likely get a waiver for buying Iranian oil but only for 6 months and they will need to reduce and eventually end importing it... which I don't think they will agree to... so sanctions are likely there too.
    So, the Indian card US plays against China is a good insurance policy against future US sanctions. Unless Trump is so stupid press on & lose India as a result, just like he lost Turkey & is now loosing SK.

    India will not join the US against Iran in any way, shape or form as she will hurt herself economically & her relations with Russia & PRC even more if she does.
    And with the S-400 it seems to be buy F-16s or get sanctions.

    If China could build its HQ-18, the S-300 counterpart, why India can't do the same with S-400?
    http://www.atimes.com/article/pla-reveals-details-of-s-300-missile-trial-and-deployment/

    And perhaps they should consider buying MiG-35s &/ SU-35s. It won't be much of a change since they now fly dozens of MiG-29s & SU-30MKIs.

    ..the UK entered the EU market and basically forgot about us.
    They'll exit it soon. If the US breaks apart, it may join with Atlantic Canada & New England. Australia & perhaps NZ will be eventually populated by Asians.


    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:13 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : add link)
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    GunshipDemocracy

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    Re: India's Foreign policy

    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:18 pm

    Tsavo Lion wrote:
    One likes or not Anglo-Saxon world is coming to an end. India in 10 years will be 10x UK economy.
    True, but it'll take decades, & the UK isn't only allied with US, Canada, Australia & NZ but also France & Japan. In the meantime, India may implode into several states that may then clash among themselves, & a lot sooner than China. With Hindus, Sikhs, Buddhists, Muslims & Christians often at each others throats + Kashmir & Assam insurgencies, it may be enough to prevent her staying together:

    Same as USA, UK and France can split into some of territories. None of strong states allow for that. France is not a free country but serf of US. Once US gets weaker France will set sail free. Japan and Germany are under US occupation. This is hardly definition of an ally to me.

    Canada,Australia and GarryB land are all anglosaxon world ;-)
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    Tsavo Lion

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    Re: India's Foreign policy

    Post  Tsavo Lion on Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:33 am

    Same as USA, UK and France can split into some of territories. .. France is not a free country but serf of US. Once US gets weaker France will set sail free. Japan and Germany are under US occupation. This is hardly definition of an ally to me.
    New Caledonia just had a referendum &, like Scotland, chose not to get independent.
    The US forces in Germany & Japan r not on occupation duty for decades now, & can be surrounded & confined to their bases as hostages. They won't pay more for their upkeep there as Trump demands, & will build up their militaries & alliances as they see fit.
    France, like India btw, is trying to sit on 2 chairs & leans periodically on 1 of them depending on her understanding of what can be gained by it. Having nukes, they can tell the US to take a long walk & follow their own path. They had enough of loosing all wars since Napoleon was defeated at Waterloo.
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    Re: India's Foreign policy

    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:43 am

    Tsavo Lion wrote:
    Same as USA, UK and France can split into some of territories. .. France is not a free country but serf of US. Once US gets weaker France will set sail free. Japan and Germany are under US occupation. This is hardly definition of an ally to me.
    New Caledonia just had a referendum &, like Scotland, chose not to get independent.

    That's exactly what I was saying. Either referendum is rigged (Scotland, Hawaii) or rendered illegal by local regime as in Catalonya


    The US forces in Germany & Japan r not on occupation duty for decades now, & can be surrounded & confined to their bases as hostages. They won't pay more for their upkeep there as Trump demands, & will build up their militaries & alliances as they see fit.

    They were not under occupation US troop would left immediately. UK troops too.


    France, like India btw, is trying to sit on 2 chairs & leans periodically on 1 of them depending on her understanding of what can be gained by it. Having nukes, they can tell the US to take a long walk & follow their own path. They had enough of loosing all wars since Napoleon was defeated at Waterloo.


    No Napoleon was defeated in Russia, then he lost most of his troops.
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    Tsavo Lion

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    Re: India's Foreign policy

    Post  Tsavo Lion on Wed Nov 07, 2018 6:21 am

    In pure military terms he didn't lose a single battle in Russia, but lost the campaign. The elites left Moscow but retained the army, as Kutuzov said. Then Moscow was looted, burned & abandoned by the French supposedly fighting tsarism & exporting democracy. The European Russia is several times bigger than France. It was the Russian scorched earth policy in the countryside, while not able to live off the land, long supply lines, guerrilla attacks, & the winter cold killing many that caused him to withdraw. His troops were reduced to eating horse meat, fleeing on the same devastated Old Smolensk Road they used to invade. So, Napoleon bit more than he could chew.
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    GunshipDemocracy

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    Re: India's Foreign policy

    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Thu Nov 08, 2018 1:39 am

    Tsavo Lion wrote:In pure military terms he didn't lose a single battle in Russia, but lost the campaign. The elites left Moscow but retained the army, as Kutuzov said. Then Moscow was looted, burned & abandoned by the French supposedly fighting tsarism & exporting democracy. The European Russia is several times bigger than France. It was the Russian scorched earth policy in the countryside, while not able to live off the land, long supply lines, guerrilla attacks, & the winter cold killing many that caused him to withdraw. His troops were reduced to eating horse meat, fleeing on the same devastated Old Smolensk Road they used to invade. So, Napoleon bit more than he could chew.

    Not exactly, in pure military terms he lost hundreds  of small battles with resistance. This + poor logistic planning on French side + massive desertions as you mentioned. SO poor strategical planning and in military terms and finally draw in Borodino Battle. This was actual first battle when French lost strategic initiative and started its collapse.


    Please mind that French troops invading Russia were ~50% larger then Russian ones. Most of Europe was conquered by Napoleon so e had also huge human and economic reserves.  Yet he lost. I would not call this very complimenting to French side.

    BTW jut yesterday wanna-be-empereur French Micron wanted to build  European army. Read: French command over junior partners (Germany + ev NL, Sweden)  + vassals (Italy, Spain and so on) + just colonies and overseas territories  (Poland, Romania, Czech Rep, Slovakia, Bulgarians, Croats etc).

    The funny part here is that Micron has very little support in his own country , but everybody can dream of Napoleon sequel lol1  lol1  lol1
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    Tsavo Lion

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    Re: India's Foreign policy

    Post  Tsavo Lion on Thu Nov 08, 2018 2:24 am

    Thanks to Russia's ability of finishing wars, France was left w/o her emperor, & Japan still has her emperor but w/o an empire.
    Macron knows that w/o Germany there can be no European army, so I doubt he dreams of a French only led force.
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    GunshipDemocracy

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    Re: India's Foreign policy

    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Thu Nov 08, 2018 3:15 am

    Tsavo Lion wrote:Thanks to Russia's ability of finishing wars, France was left w/o her emperor, & Japan still has her emperor but w/o an empire.
    Macron knows that w/o Germany there can be no European army, so I doubt he dreams of a French only led force.

    didn't I mention "a junior partner"? Twisted Evil Twisted Evil Twisted Evil   look at European fighter. French are leading project... Germany have to stay low as long and UK/US armies are there. First independence and IMHO partnership with France is a way to this. But first Kanzlerin Merkel has to go.



    I dont blame France( or rather elites) that they wanna own empire. Everybody does. But calling something  "european" when France is at all command posts is mildly speaking exaggeration.
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    Tsavo Lion

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    Re: India's Foreign policy

    Post  Tsavo Lion on Thu Nov 08, 2018 3:54 am

    They can have a federation or bloc of Latin derived speakers -France, Belgium, Italy (& maybe Greece), Spain, Portugal (perhaps incl. Brazil), & Romania- strong enough to defend Europe with strategic depth given by French colonies & Brazil.
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    Tsavo Lion

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    Re: India's Foreign policy

    Post  Tsavo Lion on Sun Nov 11, 2018 3:00 am

    Updates on the new EU Force here: http://www.russiadefence.net/t3863-ideas-of-united-european-army

    1 branch of the BRI network passes via India, & she could benefit from it:

    Those roads r already in place: https://www.mapsofindia.com/maps/india/india-railway-map.htm

    IMO, it would be foolish not to participate!

    IMO, the JAS-39 is a better choice than the F-16:


    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Mon Nov 12, 2018 7:02 am; edited 2 times in total (Reason for editing : add link)
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    GarryB

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    Re: India's Foreign policy

    Post  GarryB on Tue Nov 13, 2018 4:05 am

    The Gripen is probably not as wonderful as the people trying to sell it make it out to be... I don't think it would be a dog, but at the end of the day in a competition between the Gripen and the F-16 then the F-16 would win simply because the competition wont be fair.

    The Gripen uses a lot of american parts including the engine and its main weapons, so I suspect the word will be... Buy the F-16 or get a Gripen without AMRAAM or an engine...

    BTW that still of that video is interesting... Russia is obviously over run by NATO when this map is depicting... western Russia is now Europe and the Asian portion is some new country called Siberia... amusing.

    Of course it also ignores the sea option of the northern route for transport to Europe too for which a few rail lines will likely be added to.
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    Tsavo Lion

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    Re: India's Foreign policy

    Post  Tsavo Lion on Tue Nov 13, 2018 5:46 am

    The map depicts geographical Europe- it borders on the Ural, Kazakhstan, the W. Caspian coast, & Main or Great Caucasus Range.
    Who said that the Indians wouldn't be able to to fit different engines & weapons on a cheaper to operate Grippen?
    The Thai junta's AF operates 7 of them & 38 F-16s; I haven't heard of any US sanctions grounding them! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saab_JAS_39_Gripen#Thailand
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Royal_Thai_Air_Force#Current_inventory

    There must have been a reason they chose JAS-39 over modernizing &/ buying more F-16s; IMO it's not sanctions.

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