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    India's Foreign policy

    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Tue Aug 28, 2018 10:13 pm

    They'll find a way to do w/o the US $. Sanctions can't stay for too long, Russia may & will retaliate asymmetrically to make it harder for the US elsewhere: http://www.moscow-post.com/politics/lavrov_zajavil_o_skorom_oslablenii_dollara27596/

    http://www.pravdareport.com/news/russia/politics/27-08-2018/141457-russia_responds_new_sanctions-0/

    Trade war opens door for India to take bigger share of Chinese market
    http://www.atimes.com/article/trade-war-opens-door-for-india-to-take-bigger-share-of-chinese-market/
    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible on Tue Aug 28, 2018 10:37 pm

    Why does your post keep showing as a new post even though I seen this post like 20 times already? Broken forum software.

    No. India has been a compromised state of losers and incompetent leaders. They call themselves rich and powerful yet US can simply control their entire economy and make trade come to a fault by their own laws that normally shouldn't apply to India.

    India will never be a super power no matter how many times Indians wish for it. They have nearly zero control over their own country and foreign policy as is.
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    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:54 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:


    India will never be a super power no matter how many times Indians wish for it. They have nearly zero control over their own country and foreign policy as is.

    Very harsh words about India which I cannot agree. No country is perfect but Indian civilization exists thousands of years. They definitely have elites who think in terms of national interest. Their economical policy cannot be independent now same as Russian or Chinese are. Not yet, but step by step seems they follow an independence path.


    And India only by their human resources will be rich country. All says they can grow bigger then US. Before 2030 perhaps not yet but after I have no doubts.
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Wed Aug 29, 2018 7:36 am

    miketheterrible wrote:Why does your post keep showing as a new post even though I seen this post like 20 times already? Broken forum software.

    I deleted those posts & reposted them with more text & links instead of just editing, since noticing that the edits r being missed by others.

    Agree with u on India- unlike China, it has many antagonistic religions & writing systems for its 348 languages & ethnic/interest groups, + the infamous caste system. The phenomenon of Gypsies migration arose from conflicts there (the overseas Chinese appeared mostly as a result of trade & overpopulation); add the brutal British colonial rule followed by 3 wars with Pakistan & 1 with China.

    China takes the high ground in Nepal
    http://www.atimes.com/article/china-takes-the-high-ground-in-nepal/

    If Nepal moves closer to China & becomes another Austria or Finland, India will have even less strategic depth.
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Thu Aug 30, 2018 7:30 pm

    China-India rapprochement will benefit entire region
    Even as bilateral relations between China and India become more tightly knit, it may be just a matter of time before Pakistan and India also sort out their issues. Playing a supportive role, China could help build bridges, and even if just a modicum of success is achieved, an India-Pakistan-China triangle could ensure the long-term peace and prosperity of South Asia. ..in recent times, India has become the world’s largest weapons importer by purchasing 13% of the arms in the world, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). In the future, those finances could be re-channeled to poverty reduction and economic development if vibrant geo-economic relations are established.
    http://www.atimes.com/china-india-rapprochement-will-benefit-entire-region/?utm_source=The+Daily+Report&utm_campaign=dc02e29a5d-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_08_30_12_33&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_1f8bca137f-dc02e29a5d-31607385

    Dhaka bringing Beijing and New Delhi closer
    India’s recent bonhomie with the West further complicated its ambitions. The emergence of protectionist trade policy under US President Donald Trump followed by a declaration of a trade war against China, coupled with crippling sanctions against Iran, have pushed India into difficult terrain, not least because of the
    Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), which is casting shadows over its defense purchases from Russia.
    With such a difficult situation, confrontation with Beijing cannot be a desirable choice for New Delhi, so it is looking for avenues for cooperation where there is room for it. ..
    India has so far refused to enter the BRI, outlining its reservations on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which according to New Delhi violates India’s sovereignty, since a part of the CPEC runs through the disputed territory of Kashmir. But the complicated international developments under Trump have encouraged India to explore room for regional cooperation with China.
    http://www.atimes.com/dhaka-bringing-beijing-and-new-delhi-closer/?utm_source=The+Daily+Report&utm_campaign=dc02e29a5d-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_08_30_12_33&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_1f8bca137f-dc02e29a5d-31607385
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Sat Sep 01, 2018 5:06 am

    India risks losing big in Afghanistan
    http://www.atimes.com/india-risks-losing-big-in-afghanistan/?utm_source=The+Daily+Report&utm_campaign=f848721a60-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_08_31_12_20&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_1f8bca137f-f848721a60-31607385

    It was a fool's errand from the start. They now should follow the dictum: "if u can't beat them, join them!"

    As Washington Vacillates, Asia’s Alliances Are Shifting
    Strange Bedfellows and Buried Hatchets
    Starting with the administration of George W. Bush, the US has tried to lure India into an alliance with Japan and Australia – the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or “Quad” – to challenge China in the South China Sea and Indian Ocean.
    The Americans turned a blind eye to India’s violation of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and dropped the ban on selling arms to New Delhi. The Pentagon even re-named its Pacific Command, “Indo-Pacific Command” to reflect India’s concerns in the Indian Ocean. The US is currently training Indian fighter pilots, and this summer held joint naval maneuvers with Japan and the US – Malabar 18 – in the strategic Malacca Straits .
    But following an April Wuhan Summit meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, New Delhi’s enthusiasm for the Quad appears to have cooled. New Delhi vetoed Australia joining the Malabar war games.
    At June’s Shangri-La Dialogue held in Singapore, Modi said “India does not see the Indo-Pacific region as a strategy or as a club of limited members,” and pointedly avoided any criticism of China’s behavior in the South China Sea. Given that Indian and Chinese troops have engaged in shoving matches and fistfights with one another in the Doklam border region, Modi’s silence on the Chinese military was surprising.
    China and India have recently established a military hotline, and Beijing has cut tariffs on Indian products.
    During the SCO meetings, Modi and XI met and discussed cooperation on bringing an end to the war in Afghanistan. India, Pakistan, and Russia fear that extremism in Afghanistan will spill over their borders, and the three have joined in an effort to shore up the Taliban as a bulwark against the growth of the Islamic State.
    There is also a push to build the long-delayed Iran-Pakistan natural gas pipeline that will eventually terminate in energy-starved India.
    India signed the SCO’s “Qingdao Declaration,” which warned that “economic globalization is confronted with the expansion of unilateral protectionist policies,” a statement aimed directly at the Trump administration.
    The Modi government also made it clear that New Delhi will not join US sanctions against Iran and will continue to buy gas and oil from Tehran. Indian Defense Minister Nirmala Sitharaman also said that India would ignore US threats to sanction any country doing business with Russia’s arms industry. https://original.antiwar.com/hallinan/2018/08/30/as-washington-vacillates-asias-alliances-are-shifting/
    If North & S. Korea can improve their relations in spite of the US interests, influence & pressure, so can India, Pakistan & PRC.
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Sat Sep 08, 2018 4:19 am

    U.S., India seal military communications pact, plan more exercises
    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-india-usa/u-s-india-seal-military-communications-pact-plan-more-exercises-idUKKCN1LM0OM

    This by itself won't derail India's detente with the PRC.
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Thu Sep 13, 2018 6:48 am

    T-90 or Why Russia becomes the worst enemy of India
    http://perevodika.ru/articles/1202909.html?utm_referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fzen.yandex.com

    Pakistan is substituting India & the PRC as the top Russian arms importers. The latter may provide the funds for those purchases.
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    Post  GarryB on Thu Sep 13, 2018 11:58 am

    Well they only have themselves to blame... If India wants Russia to sell to them then they need to buy more and stop cooperating with the US..

    Odds are they will do neither.

    If India does not want Russia to sell T-90 tanks or Su-35s to Pakistan then the easiest way to do that would be an enormous Indian order that uses up all of Russias production capacity... and also stop purchases of US weapons and equipment...

    Otherwise why would Russia not sell to a customer?
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    Post  ATLASCUB on Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:33 pm

    It appears thus far that India does enjoy becoming U.S spearhead against China in the region - the perceived benefits far outweigh the perceived costs in their calculus. Russia's not gonna help India mount a front against China to contain it - that would be self-defeating...so the U.S is the tailored made partner, even if not the first choice. They could care less in that sense if they have to cut Russian MIC expenditures to give some quid pro quo to the Americans. Russia should carefully navigate these waters and it has done so thus far very well - very patient. In due time, if Russia continues to lose market share on a consistent basis, eventually they'll move to other open markets - as it pertains here: Pakistan. But it's important that India continues to be the one taking the steps. You never know what a change of guard can do to current Indian assessments on how to confront China. You don't want to jump the gun and aid the American ploy with justification just yet....the Indian market is too valuable.
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    Post  Tingsay on Thu Sep 13, 2018 3:48 pm

    India is up for another elections. All assumptions today might be stupid by the time it's done. New rounds of arms negotiations, cancellings and stallings dunno
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    Post  GarryB on Fri Sep 14, 2018 9:59 am

    70% of defence products in the Indian military are Soviet based... if they think a confrontation with their neighbour and inferior but much more expensive equipment from the US is their future then that is fine... I am sure the US is prepared to have all sorts of their equipment built in India, and to give away the source code for 5th gen fighters for 5 billion dollars.

    India needs to decide if it wants to be Americas bitch and tool for use against China, or if it sees its future in BRICS... because ultimately it is BRICS that the US really wants to destroy... and India is part of that.

    The point is that the US is now the only superpower... but it is in decline... no matter what happens it will remain important, but I can't see it remaining a superpower much longer with its divisive tactics.

    Perhaps elections will solve the problems... or they could make it worse.
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Tue Sep 18, 2018 2:16 am

    After concluding his quick trip to Pakistan, Pompeo headed to India. There, he not only praised the Indian democratic system but also signed a military communications agreement.
    As a part of this agreement, the US will provide India with the latest communication system, which will enable India to transmit real-time encrypted messages to its naval ships and aircraft. The US included India on its favored-nations list for receiving sophisticated military supplies through this agreement. This agreement will increase the defense capabilities of India against Pakistan and China.
    http://www.atimes.com/china-poised-to-become-pakistans-new-strategic-benefactor/?utm_source=The+Daily+Report&utm_campaign=ddaeac47fe-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_09_17_11_30&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_1f8bca137f-ddaeac47fe-31607385
    Before, India was capitalizing on the USSR-China-US tensions & imported mostly Soviet arms. Now, she is taking advantage of the present China/Pakistan-US tensions but will keep her options open with Russia & PRC as US policies can change again at a drop of a hat. So, why not import American gear now that may not be there later?
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Thu Oct 04, 2018 4:19 am

    Russia-India-China triangle is forming:
    https://vz.ru/politics/2018/10/3/944453.print.html
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    Post  GarryB on Fri Oct 05, 2018 2:54 am

    So, why not import American gear now that may not be there later?

    Because you don't buy US gear... you rent it...

    Buying US gear and threatening China for India would be self defeating when you consider what the C and the I in BRICS stands for.

    America is trying to sell weapons, but it is also trying to undermine BRICS and a political and economic rival to its global hegemony...

    If India wants to take part in that to gain a few crumbs from Americas table and the expense of China then by all means they can go ahead... but choosing to sit at the feet of the US and hope you can grow big and strong on crumbs that fall from the table is not a great tactic when they are basically shunning a seat at the childrens table.... admittedly for the moment it is only the childrens table right now, but they are working together and cooperating and pretty soon they will take their place at the grown ups table... the dog at the feet of the owner living off crumbs never gets a place set for them at the table...
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Fri Oct 05, 2018 4:59 am

    LM offered India to set up full F-16 production line with tech. transfer, so it's not "renting" or "leasing". 11 C-17s r owned by the IAF, as the ex-USN ship. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_C-17_Globemaster_III#Indian_Air_Force https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Trenton_(LPD-14)

    India to pass S-400 technology to NATO?
    US may permit India to buy Russian S-400 missile system
    They do lease 1 & may lease a 2nd Russian SSN, but those r for training, not combat. https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2018/1004/As-Russia-courts-India-help-from-a-surprising-corner-US-sanctions


    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Sat Oct 06, 2018 4:57 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : add link)
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Thu Oct 11, 2018 1:10 am

    America First’ rhetoric brings India, Russia closer

    Shadows of mistrust persist in India-China relations
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Tue Oct 30, 2018 6:40 pm

    China-India rapprochement continues with joint military drills
    Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman Wu Qian announced at a regular press briefing on Thursday that joint China-India military exercises would be held in November in the southwestern Chinese city of Chengdu. Details of the training are still being discussed, he added.
    India, Japan joining forces to keep Indian Ocean calm
    When India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrives in Tokyo on Sunday for an annual summit with his Japanese counterpart Shinzo Abe, they are expected to sign a logistics pact that will allow access to each other’s bases.
    In practical terms, that would mean that Japanese naval vessels will be using Indian naval bases on the Andaman and Nicobar Islands to refuel and get other services.
    India’s navy will also get access to Japanese facilities for maintenance. For the first time, the Indian Army and Japan’s Ground Self Defense Force will also conduct joint exercises at Vairengte in the northeast Indian state of Mizoram in November.


    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Tue Oct 30, 2018 6:55 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : add a quote)
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    Post  GarryB on Wed Oct 31, 2018 7:04 am

    LM offered India to set up full F-16 production line with tech. transfer, so it's not "renting" or "leasing".

    They can offer anything they want... but what happens if India does something to annoy the US... congress can cut them off on a whim.

    Ask Venezuela about how their F-16s are going... or indeed the New Zealand air force about their Skyhawks...

    Back when Pakistan was useful the US "sold" some landing ships to India... the restrictions were clear... they could be used against China, but not against Pakistan.

    As mentioned above... when China became more of a problem the US ignored the sanctions and bans on sales to India and started selling them weapons... the problem there is there was no warning or prior plan... something happened and they decided to change their policy... and the thing is that they can just as easily change back to their old policy if they want and you end up with weapons and systems not compatible with all your other stuff that you can no longer support or service... ask Iran... all their assets in the US have pretty much been seized and stolen... the US realises China is growing... they noticed Russia was growing too and look at how they reacted.... only a matter of time before they realise India is growing too.
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Wed Oct 31, 2018 7:29 am

    If the Iranians kept their F-4/-5/-14s flying in combat despite the arms embargo, so could Indians (who r not less capable) with the F-16s.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McDonnell_Douglas_F-4_Phantom_II#Iran
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northrop_F-5#Iran
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grumman_F-14_Tomcat#Iran
    Iranian frozen assets in international accounts are calculated to be worth between $100 billion and $120 billion. Almost $1.973 billion of Iran's assets are frozen in the United States. According to the Congressional Research Service, in addition to the money locked up in foreign bank accounts, Iran's frozen assets include real estate and other property. The estimated value of Iran's real estate in the U.S. and their accumulated rent is $50 million. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_frozen_assets
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Thu Nov 01, 2018 8:11 pm

    South Transportation Corridor update: https://regnum.ru/news/polit/2511787.html
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    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Fri Nov 02, 2018 3:19 am

    Tsavo Lion wrote:If the Iranians kept their F-4/-5/-14s flying in combat despite the arms embargo, so could Indians (who r not less capable) with the F-16s.

    True, but why India should to invest irrationally in country which can froze your money or stop tech transfer in middle of implementation? Russia never did "sanctionize" any country first.


    BTW frozen assets is a plain robbery, in middle ages highwaymen were hanged high ;-)





    GarryB wrote:
    LM offered India to set up full F-16 production line with tech. transfer, so it's not "renting" or "leasing".

    They can offer anything they want... but what happens if India does something to annoy the US... congress can cut them off on a whim.

    stop dramatizing, Will ya? .At least Modi can visit US now, visa ban was lifted. Should itnot be enough for century long serfdom friendship?
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Fri Nov 02, 2018 4:12 am

    Then perhaps they could also order JAS-39s from Sweden, btw their performance is better, or buy/set up production of Japanese F-2s, if the US doesn't object.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saab_JAS_39_Gripen#India
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saab_JAS_39_Gripen#Specifications
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Dynamics_F-16_Fighting_Falcon#Specifications_(F-16C_Block_50) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitsubishi_F-2#Specifications_(F-2A)

    Indonesia also has US made F-5/-16s & been cut off from their support- but I never heard of them all being grounded because of it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equipment_of_the_Indonesian_Air_Force#Current_inventory
    http://www.joebaugher.com/usaf_fighters/f5_36.html
    In 1999, the US imposed a ban on military aid to Indonesia after it was accused of taking part in violence in East Timor during that territory's break from Indonesia. The ban had a serious impact on the combat readiness of Indonesia's F-16 fleet, mainly due to a lack of spare parts. The ban was lifted in November 2005. http://www.f-16.net/f-16_users_article6.html
    Many Asian AFs have fighters from more than 1 foreign manufacturer, & India is no exception.
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    Post  GarryB on Sun Nov 04, 2018 5:05 am

    Iran keeping aircraft in service was at enormous cost and effort... I rather doubt India wants aircraft it has to figure out how to keep flying on its own... it is much cheaper and simpler to get that support from the aircraft designer... whether they are Russian or french...

    The US has a history of turning on its customers when either it has problems with them, or more important allies have problems with them....

    Compare Pakistan and Turkey and Argentina, with the UK, Saudi Arabia, and Israel...

    Then perhaps they could also order JAS-39s from Sweden, btw their performance is better, or buy/set up production of Japanese F-2s, if the US doesn't object.

    The Gripen uses US parts and weapons and the Japanese F-2s are super expensive and also contain US parts... the US wont give permission... because the competition is the F-16...

    There are no sanctions against Indonesia at the moment AFAIK, the F-5s are out of service and they should be able to keep the F-16s operating for a while yet because they are not as yet under sanction, but their purchase of Su-35s might change that in the near future and they might end up getting rid of their F-16s perhaps?
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Sun Nov 04, 2018 7:04 am

    If at some point India can't get F-16 spares from the US, Venezuela can sell them some- they got nothing to lose & can't fly them anyway. But if the production is set up with full transfer of technology, I don't see how they'll be grounded for lack of support!

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