Russia and Turkey

GarryB wrote:I see it as a tipping point... if Russia and China and Iran and Qatar and other countries can help Turkey survive with some dignity in leaving Americas sphere of influence, then in the long term that is good for everyone outside the sphere of US influence...

Turkey has historically been an enemy of Russia... so has Germany, and Japan and Pakistan... and right now things are different... it is not about communism any more..., someone might seize power and stab you in the back but I think it is worth a try.

Russia has no interests for a Kurdish state in Syria, it would be more useful for Assad to have total control of the entire country...

Assad should have total control over the entirety of Syria. The problem is if anything tries to cross the Euphrates it gets nailed by US air power. The Turkish occupation will not be much to worry about for long.

Isos wrote:

Maps disagree with you. SAA and russians have some bases east of Euphrates if I'm not wrong. That will be a big problem for kurds to make a state with a Syrian town with russian forces in the middle of the state.

Vladimir79 wrote:

Isos wrote:

Maps disagree with you. SAA and russians have some bases east of Euphrates if I'm not wrong. That will be a big problem for kurds to make a state with a Syrian town with russian forces in the middle of the state.

I don't know what Russian bases are there.  The SAA militias have a ceasefire in Qamishili but as 2016 demonstrated they are heavily outnumbered by the Kurdish militias.  The heavy American presence scrapped plans to make the airport into a Russian airbase as no equipment could get through the checkpoints or equipment flown in.  The two SAA enclaves are totally at the mercy of the sea of Kurds that surround them.  Everything they get by transport is inspected at Kurdish checkpoints.  

Isos wrote:

I think I have seen some map showing russian presence there. Maybe I'm wrong.

They can't just attack SAA. If they attack them, russia could start bombing them. As long as they stay calm there, kurds have to let them and wait that US go away and retake everything.

Kurds are a milicia. They have no equiement and once US help is finish, no matter how many they are they will be easy targets.

Vladimir79 wrote:

GunshipDemocracy wrote:
Russian peacekeepers in Turkey this is a pure fantasy mate. Turks supported Chechen islamists because Russia was on verge of  existence. They're nto gonna do anything like this when a country is strong.

It depends on how bad things get.  If the UN has to create a mission you can guarantee Russians will be in it.  Turks support terrorists, yeah I got it.  Turkey isn't strong and growing weaker by the day economically which eventually effects military.    

Vladimir79 wrote:
It will be interesting to see what countries offer up support.  If it doesn't include the ECB it won't be enough.  

GunshipDemocracy wrote:
It was not actually my, you have clearly grudge with Turkey.  Perhaps some in Russian leadership as well. But weak Turkey and then change of Russia friendly regime to  US serfs is even worse option. Putin plays without emotions carefully weighting cost benefit balance,  The world is not only Turkey and Russia.


If you dotn believe tell me  please:  Turkey goes in turmoil what happens next?  What EU does? what US does? what Russia does?

perhaps you're right but ECB is only a political tool for elites not the other way around. And Russia or China always can offer something in political dimension.

GarryB wrote:You know me... Mr Optimistic....

How about the FUKUS does something stupid, like the terrorists use Chlorine and some children are paraded covered in some dust and lying still like they are dead even though close examination of the vid will show they are not dead and the US starts a strike.

They don't give a shit about Idlib except that it is not controlled by Assad, so their attack will be mainly focussed on taking out Syrian air defence forces and trying to kill Assad and destroying some of that infrastructure that the Russians and Assad have built up... making US controlled areas look bad in comparison.

I think the Syrians will fight off many of the cruise missiles but that as it escalates the Russians will have to start targeting FUKUS launch platforms... whether it is actually launching missiles at them or just moving armed platforms towards them to make them go away...

And I think Putin will then move more S-400s into Syria and declare a no fly zone over all of Syria (except the Golan Heights no doubt to keep the peace there).

Without air control the US will not remain and Turkey just wants the PKK to not set up shop on their border... Assad can offer that to them by making it Syrian government territory again...

Regarding the bailout of Turkey... perhaps the big HATO airfield there could become a big Chinese airfield to let them support their peaceful investment in the region... the Chinese could afford it better than the Russians... and it would really piss off the EU, NATO, and the US... maybe they will realise what they had an lost.

The US has been really stupid over the last few decades... their removal of Saddam let the Shia majority take power and control via the ballot box, which let Iran in... their support of anti Assad terrorists have forced Iran to intervene in Syria too... without those two actions Irans influence in Iraq would be zero, and there would be no presence in Syria either.

With that agreement with Iran being ripped up by the US... if the EU cannot manage to inject enough investment into Iran to compensate then Iran might just tear up the whole thing... if you make promises like giving up a nuclear weapon programme in return for foreign investment to develop your economy and there is no investment why are you sticking to your side of the agreement.

Once that agreement is totally dead Iran can move thousands of ballistic missiles into Syrian and Iraqi territory pointed at US bases all round the region and also Israel... what sort of US attack is likely then?

We are not talking about scuds now... they have greatly improved their missiles now....

If I was the US I would ease up on Turkey and withdraw forces from Syria in the hope that Iran would leave.

I read a report recently that the US has made conditions for it to leave Syria and they include Iran getting out of Syria and US companies getting contracts to rebuild Syria and also US companies getting oil and gas contracts... Assad said no... the US is delusional...

Bolton said Russia as stuck in Syria... America has no understanding of a country helping a friendly country without guarantees of contracts to make money in the aftermath.

Of course Russian companies will get contracts, but I rather doubt Russia would demand that...

Of course if Russia gets no contracts then they can always leave... a lot of other countries in the region have noticed how Russia behaves and are impressed... they seem to be able to talk to anyone... they don't always get their way but they get the business done unlike the US.

Vladimir79 wrote:[

The US made their dividing line at the Euphrates to include all of Syria's oil and gas fields.  Assad has no money and the US is going to hold on to that to strangle him to their will, that being the ejection of Iran and a process for elections to replace him.  

It is far too early to be talking about reconstruction.  First we have to kick the Turks out, then figure out how to get the Americans out.      

Vladimir79 wrote: I already told you the end game, Turkey and Syria ends up in partition.  The US has already been drawing the borders.  The Turks see it plain as day.

perhaps you're right but ECB is only a political tool for elites not the other way around. And Russia or China always can offer something in political dimension.

 The ECB is the only one with the vested interest of getting their money back that would possibly consider it.  Of course those conditions would be worse than the IMF, not something Erdogan would want to bow down to.

GunshipDemocracy wrote:

yet after 7 years and billions lost Assad is still in place, and ever stronger ten before. Guess why? and no Iran wont get away .  US is powerful but not omnipotent and is also afraid of confrontation. Bombing Russians is 3WW and they know the stake too.

ITs more like chess. Russia DID bomb Idlib even though western secret service were there and what? Pompeo was sharing Russian concerns about terrorists right afterwards. Will oil wells return to Syria? Dunno depending how long US can keep Kurdistan alive - how you can export/import anything if you're a landlocked country and have nothing to offer besides li?

OK I like that much better.  BTW may I ask about reason for grudge against Turkey?

На саммите в Тегеране Турция открыто заявила о том, что методы, игнорирующие безопасность мирных сирийских граждан, не приносят никакой пользы, а только облегчают действия террористов.

— Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (@RT_Erdogan) September 7, 2018

Isos wrote:A war with who ? In one hand you have Russia helping Assad to get something everyone know he will take one day or another. On the other hand you have US trying to make a country for the kurds at the turkish border.

US plan is like 1 billion times more dangerous for them. Russian acting in Idlib isn't a surprise. Since the agreement with US that Euphrates is the separetion line, they all knew russia and assad will take everything on the west part. Even US wanted to move from al tanf but now they can't since russians threatened to attack the area. That would look like they are afraid.

Oil fields in "kurdistan" can be bombed occasionaly to not let them exploit it. Since the only way to export it is through the south, through countries that already produce oil and sell it, I doubt they would help a competitor sell its own oil. They are vulnerable. Just look what happened yesterday with iranian missiles.

Iraq isn't likely to help them since they need to rebuild their country because of US war(s). Turkey and syria will never let them transport oil through their country. Iran already started bombing them. Unless they try to transport the oil with cargo C-5 galaxy from us air force, they are unable to exploit anything.

Russia is also in syria for a long time. Fighters and bombers and probably some nuks will stay there for long time since they invested so much in supporting assad.

If Turkey intervenes in Idlib we will be at war with Turkey. We will not allow their tin-pot dictator to distract us from the goals we all agreed to in Astana. If Turkey opens fire on any of Assad or Russian troops we will immediately set up a no-fly zone and shoot down any Turkish aircraft that violates Syrian airspace, that includes Afrin. Secondly, any Turkish forces remaining in Idlib will be destroyed. The forward deployment of Turkish troops to the border is a pretext for the intervention Erdogan is threatening. He better think carefully what his next actions include because he cannot afford a war with Russia.

The Kurds will not be ready until Turkey collapses, the way Erdogan is moving it looks sooner rather than later.

Iraq is still controlled by the Americans, they have bases all over the country. If they must replace the government again they can do so. To think they had independence was a joke.

Isos wrote:
I meant that US is a bigger probleme for turkey than Russia. They will never try to shoot at russian or syrian soldiers. If they have to put effort for a problem, it is US trying to create kurdistan. They knew since long time ago that russia will take those lands on the north. They did nothing to prevent this happening, they won't do anything now.

Erdogan is an old guy. Old dictators are easily removed because new fresh politicians or military generals are more dinamic to hold a country. I don't give him more tha 3 or 4 years before being replaced. US seem to think that and they are waiting. Turkey isn't the probleme, erdogan is. Some sanctions and isolation will turn the people against him, they will remove him of the power before turkey is destroyed. I mean he is only a guy. Like Stalin said "no man no probleme".

Iraq gov never controled anything since Hussein. Milicias and talibans control it. Iran can supply them with weapons to destroy any pipeline kurds try to use. Their oil has 0 value. No matter how US is strong and how it control the country. If the neighbours say no they won't sell anything.  Turkey could also sabotage the transport lines. You can't watch 2 or 3000km of pipelines.

Iran has had every reason and opportunity to attack the Americans in Iraq... why haven't they done it yet? The IRIAF and their rusted F-14/F-5s are no match for the USAF, they know it despite what propaganda they play.

Isos wrote:Turkish people is used to western standards of modern life. Once the sanctions really hurt the population, he is done. He can't rule alone, and those around him will see an occasion to take his place. US will take care of the successor.

Syrian are poor and divided. It is easier to control such population for assad since his clan is big and has the coast while the rest never went to school. Turkey is full of turkish that have access to schools, internet... They won't starve while a erdogan live like a king. Now he has the support of the people because of anti US feelings but once they see he is a problem they will remove him.

Turkey/erdogan is similar to russia/Putin. They are strong leaders that wants power but are making things better for the country. If things goes bad they are done. They will be replaced quickly. Erdogan is done because of his own interests.

Anyway if Turkey is dead, greece could take everything on the north of bosphorus and make easier for Russian to access the mediteranean.

Why attack US ? Just hit the pipelines and oil fields in kurdistan if Syria and russia don't do it first.

Kurds only hope is to reach an agreement with russia. US won't support them for ever. They never supported anyone for ever. They fought 10 years in vietnam, one day they just decided to leave and let their "allies" loose badly. 20 years later they are sending warships for official visits to see vietnam's communists leaders ... it's like the one who said "being an enemy of US is dangerous but being an ally is fatal".

Kurdistan doesn't bring to them anything extraordinary. They have lot bases around there. They control most of golf countries for oil. And the election of Trump showed that a stupid guy can become president in US and do unexpected things like bring all soldiers back home. BTW he always wants to get them away from syria. Now that ISIS doesn't exist anymore, it is only a question of time to leave syria.

Airman wrote:You don't know anything about Atatürk and his views on Army-Politics relation. ''If the soldiers want to do politics, they should take off their uniforms immediately. Because you can't be both a soldier and a politician at the same time.'' These are the words of Atatürk about the Army-Politics relation and even Ataturk retired from the army to become a politician. Atatürk didn't set up such a mechanisms that gives Army the right to overthrow the government.

If you think that all military coups ın Turkey were planned by Turkish Army, you are wrong. For example, 1960 coup d'état just happened before when Prime Minister Adnan Menderes planned to visit Moscow in the hope of establishing alternative lines of credit. 1960 coup d'état was conducted by 16 turkish officers and They were first turkish officers trained by the United States. These 16 officers were part of the Turkish branch of anti-communist "stay-behind" guerrilla force.

1980 Turkish coup d'état happened to end 4 years long low level war between right wing groups and left wing groups. It was conducted by 5 Generals ıncluding General Kenan Evren, who was Chief of the General Staff at that time. Kenan Evren was the commander of Operation Gladio's Turkish branch.

As you can see, all of these coups was made by the US or US/NATO linked anti-communist forces to prevent the growth of Communism in Turkey and these coups have nothing to do with Islam or Islamıst leaders.

miketheterrible wrote:Just a note: Erdogan, like Trump, Putin and most other leaders, talk big talk for more domestic. Rumors here and there aside, in the end, Turkey will agree with Russia. They won't fight Russia or SAA, or there will indeed be some infighting. Outside of that, Erdogan knows US wants him gone and their puppet in Turkey, and Russia is only really one who will cooperate with him and his group. I don't think the man is suicidal, so while rhetoric is used, he agreed to Astana process and agreed to the deals done.

There may never be a major alliance between Russia and Turkey for obvious reasons, but keeping Turkey a relatively decent partner to cooperate with and help keep US and their vassals at Bay is best option.

And believe it or not, any major economic deals and even Russian investment into Turkey will help keep that going.

As well, Assad still controls a lot of oil Wells. Possibly half of them. Enough to supply Syria for a long time and even export. They also own refineries too. Enough to help fund Syria for a long time. There is also possible offshore which is being considered especially after the war to help fund reconstruction and help fund SAA.

Vladimir79 wrote:I guess you didn't hear the news... Turkey is sending 20,000 of its proxy army terrorists from Afrin and Euphrates Shield to fight Assad.

http://www.diken.com.tr/yeni-safakin-iddiasi-turkiye-20-bin-oso-militanini-idlibe-gonderiyor/

LMFS wrote:
Not saying this is good for SAA, but what is Turkey expected to do with the thousands of jihadists they have sponsored, if they are not eliminated in Syria? They have been radicalised and learned jihad as a way of life so they are more of a liability than an asset after the war, both Turkey and Syria would need to neutralize them in some way. And besides making things difficult for SAA will give Turkey leverage in the political settlement of the war so better to mobilize forces now than wait for AQ and the rest of the most hardcore crazies to be eliminated. The jihadists themselves know it is now or never so they will join forces regardless...