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    VVS Russian Air Force: News #1

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    TR1

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    Re: VVS Russian Air Force: News #1

    Post  TR1 on Sun Feb 15, 2015 11:32 pm

    You gonna pay for it?

    The number of new 4th gen airframes Russia is buying is quite good for its defense spending.

    I swear, some of you guys have no conception of what Russia actually needs/what it can pay for.
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    sepheronx

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    Re: VVS Russian Air Force: News #1

    Post  sepheronx on Sun Feb 15, 2015 11:39 pm

    TR1 wrote:You gonna pay for it?

    The number of new 4th gen airframes Russia is buying is quite good for its defense spending.

    Currently it is, I admit.  But the problem is, they have a real aging airforce and with NATO's pressuring Russia, it is becoming evident that they will need more soon to counter NATO.  Roughly, Russia has around 830 fighter or so combat aircraft in service, but that is somewhat decent for such a large nation, but not that good.  As well, who will pay for it?  Well, they will have to pay for it which is a lot less than paying for what could be a problem after a war which is far greater payments.  As well, if they stretch it out for the next x amount of years, then it shouldn't be a problem (and ultimately, prices will drop over time as production will be up).  As well, they could opt for building a plane that meets somewhere inbetween the Su-35, PAK FA and MiG-35.  Something cheaper.  The idea of a single jet engine plane would have been a good one, something with an RD-93 engine and more modern equipment onboard but ultimately cheaper (like Su-34 or cheaper) would be ideal to get in numbers.  Su-30 series is also a good step too.

    tr1 wrote:I swear, some of you guys have no conception of what Russia actually needs/what it can pay for.

    Well, theoretically, after time, it would become much cheaper to produce them.  Maybe more MiG-29M's for Russia would also be good as an alternative.  Su-30MK2 runs at around $37M per aircraft.  If they spent $20B (which they spend much more than that on other programs, and $20B being peanuts to Russia ultimately) could produce roughly 500 Su-30MK2's and that is just using current known figures, figures that could be export prices.  Just an example. Stretch that $20B to the next lets say 10 years, and that is: $2B a year.
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    TR1

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    Re: VVS Russian Air Force: News #1

    Post  TR1 on Sun Feb 15, 2015 11:52 pm

    MiG-29SMT - 50
    MiG-29K - 24
    MiG-35 - ~30
    Su-34 - ~170
    Su-35 - 112
    Su-30SM - 110-140
    Su-30M2 - 20
    Su-27SM/SM3 - 14

    Tentative Total : ~530-560

    My Tentative list for "new" (post-Soviet) airframes that will be around by 2020.

    I fail to see how this is a bad number.
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    sepheronx

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    Re: VVS Russian Air Force: News #1

    Post  sepheronx on Sun Feb 15, 2015 11:55 pm

    TR1 wrote:MiG-29SMT - 50
    MiG-29K - 24
    MiG-35 - ~30
    Su-34 - ~170
    Su-35 - 112
    Su-30SM - 110-140
    Su-30M2 - 20
    Su-27SM/SM3 - 14

    Tentative Total : ~530-560

    My Tentative list for "new" (post-Soviet) airframes that will be around by 2020.

    I fail to see how this is a bad number.

    Is there anymore orders for further MiG-29SMT? There is quite a few MiG-29's in service so upgrading them shouldn't be that costly, no? What about Su-27SM and SM3?

    As well, by anychance, do you have the figures on how much it cost for the Su-27SM3?
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    TR1

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    Re: VVS Russian Air Force: News #1

    Post  TR1 on Mon Feb 16, 2015 12:41 am

    The only current MiG-29SMT orders are the 16 airframes ordered until the MiG-35 is ready.

    Add that to the 34 Algerian birds, and that is where I got 50 from.

    There were two additional Su-27SM3 modernized recently, but aside from that AFAIK the program is over.
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    George1

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    Re: VVS Russian Air Force: News #1

    Post  George1 on Mon Feb 16, 2015 2:03 am

    TR1 wrote:The only current MiG-29SMT orders are the 16 airframes ordered until the MiG-35 is ready.

    Add that to the 34 Algerian birds, and that is where I got 50 from.

    There were two additional Su-27SM3 modernized recently, but aside from that AFAIK the program is over.

    maybe we have another order of 16 MiG-29SMT, until MiG-35 Smile
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    TR1

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    Re: VVS Russian Air Force: News #1

    Post  TR1 on Mon Feb 16, 2015 3:52 am

    George1 wrote:
    TR1 wrote:The only current MiG-29SMT orders are the 16 airframes ordered until the MiG-35 is ready.

    Add that to the 34 Algerian birds, and that is where I got 50 from.

    There were two additional Su-27SM3 modernized recently, but aside from that AFAIK the program is over.

    maybe we have another order of 16 MiG-29SMT, until MiG-35 Smile

    Not sure they could, I think they will be completely out of the first gen airframes after this order is completed.

    If somehow by 2017 Mig is STILL not able to produce MiG-35, they could just order MiG-29M2, since that airframe type has actually been in production.
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    sepheronx

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    Re: VVS Russian Air Force: News #1

    Post  sepheronx on Mon Feb 16, 2015 4:46 am

    TR1 wrote:The only current MiG-29SMT orders are the 16 airframes ordered until the MiG-35 is ready.

    Add that to the 34 Algerian birds, and that is where I got 50 from.

    There were two additional Su-27SM3 modernized recently, but aside from that AFAIK the program is over.

    The program being over is because the Su-27SM3 is still considered outdated by the other Sukhoi aircrafts? Cause I could see an Su-27SKM or SM3 or whatever using better/newer radar and newer subsystems with being a new airframe without costing that much, no? I think that would be good.
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    GarryB

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    Re: VVS Russian Air Force: News #1

    Post  GarryB on Mon Feb 16, 2015 7:27 am

    96 aircraft is a pathetic number.

    It is a pathetic number of I-16s with rifle calibre machine guns against well trained German pilots in vastly superior fighters.

    It is an excellent number for use against quarter billion dollar western equivalents.

    the simple fact is that Russia is not the Soviet Union and you simply can't compare an Su-35S produced now with an Su-27 from the early 1980s.

    Russias military is down sizing and simply doesn't need thousands of planes... what it really needs is 500-600 planes, plus the modern capable munitions that make them orders of magnitude more effective than previous gen aircraft.

    An Su-35S with 6 R-37M missiles with an effective range of 280km, and still room on the weapon pylons for 8 more missiles is very formidible, and a MiG-35 with 10 wing hard points is almost as useful.


    The number of T-50's proposed, 250, is a pathetic number too, when Soviet Union was able to produce 500 MiG-31's and far more MiG-29's, Su-27's and fielding previous gen aircrafts at same time. Russia put all the others in reserve, graveyard, while operating a pathetic fleet of MiG-29's, Su-27's and Su-24's with a few modern jets here and there. So Russia is in no position to even defend itself conventionally. Su-35's to replace all Su-27's and MiG-35 to replace all MiG-29's plus upgrade all current MiG-29's and replacing Su-24's 1 to 1 with Su-34's is where they need to go, or they will be heavily under protected and heavily outgunned real quick.

    Yet spending all that money on fighter aircraft didn't save the Soviet Union... it was that excess spending that did them in... and you want them to repeat the mistake?

    Is there anymore orders for further MiG-29SMT? There is quite a few MiG-29's in service so upgrading them shouldn't be that costly, no?

    For two decades the MiGs received little use but also little maintainence and they are of a different design to the current production models.

    The MiG-29M2 is the new airframe that has potential to be given upgrades to MiG-29K2 or MiG-35. the old model MiG-29s can only be upgraded to MiG-29SMT level, which is fully multirole but not startling in performance.

    A lot of tasks will in future be performed by unmanned aircraft so having a huge manned fleet doesn't really make that much sense.

    Having a small air force is only a bad thing if you don't upgrade to modern capable multirole aircraft with old dumb munitions...

    New air to air missiles will transform all modern Russian fighters...


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    Kimppis

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    Re: VVS Russian Air Force: News #1

    Post  Kimppis on Mon Feb 16, 2015 8:22 am

    TR1 wrote:Plan is for 96 through 2020, though they mentioned the 2nd batch might be increased in size modestly.

    T-50 won't be built at 12 per year from 2016, you can count on that.

    There have been 20 Su-30M2 ordered, and likely no more.
    60 Su-30SM for VVS, and VMF has ordered a small amount with a floated interest in 50 birds. Past that we can only guess.

    OK, thanks. Sounds about right. Except the T-50 part... Well that what they've announced Smile They've been doing a decent job with the re-armament so far so why the hell not? Seems realistic numbers to me. (But what the hell do I know: Very Happy)

    TR1 wrote:MiG-29SMT - 50
    MiG-29K - 24
    MiG-35 - ~30
    Su-34 - ~170
    Su-35 - 112
    Su-30SM - 110-140
    Su-30M2 - 20
    Su-27SM/SM3 - 14

    Tentative Total : ~530-560

    My Tentative list for "new" (post-Soviet) airframes that will be around by 2020.

    I fail to see how this is a bad number.

    Those are solid numbers, that's true. (And you're not even including Su-50.) And even the rest are 4th gen (thank you, USSR!) so 20-30% that are left can be easily replaced after 2020. Btw, that doesn't even include the already upgraded Flankers (100+?) if I'm not mistaken? EDIT: And let's not forget the 100 upgraded MIG-31s...

    nemrod wrote:Russians strategists don't think like that, they are infinietly more cleaver than we could  imagine. Russia is in war against west, espiaclally US. To build more SU-35, and Mig-35 implies to spend more ressources in military industrial complex, Russia cannot afford it. It is in fact the trap tended by US. China has at least 400 SU-27 derived, India has several hundreds SU-27, and Mig-29. China became the world economy, it has more ressources to spend. India, has growing economy too, these countries has huge ressources. Moreover, there are other countries in the world that are interresting by SU-35, and Mig-35, there are all challenges for US.
    The first batch of 24 SU-34 will arrive at China in 2016. Beijin is planning to build several hundreds, if not thousands of SU-27 derived products, with huge amounts of benefits for Russia, without straining its economy. China has nearly several trillions of dollars availlable, and all this amount will pressure US without spending one rouble for Russia. India, Vietnam, North Korea are planning to build, or buy more SU-27, and SU-50. The declining western economies could not sustain this race, and Russia will be the ultimate winner.
    SU-35, and Mig-35 are a very usefull cards between russian strategists not only in military areas.


    Yeah, I agree that China is a major issue for the US. However, I don't think they'll get Su-35s. We've been hearing that for something like 10 years now. It's just not going to happen. Su-35 is an excellent aircraft, no doubt about that, but the Chinese just don't need it anymore. And if they are going to get them, the numbers are going to be low.

    China is going to have around 1000 4th and 5th gen fighters by 2020 (or 2021) and that is going to increase close to 1500 by 2025. They already have around 700. And that doesn't even include 200+ JH-7s. Also the European context is important: France and UK each have only something like 200+ fighters. And we must not forget the Russian IADS.
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    Re: VVS Russian Air Force: News #1

    Post  TR1 on Mon Feb 16, 2015 8:50 am

    1.) I should be clearer, I meant serial T-50s. I would bet my savings those announcements regarding 2016 production are baloney. But that is just me.

    2.) I just made the list for new builds, not upgraded birds. But yes absolutely the fleet will be larger- that is just my estimate for what portion will be physically new. There will be plenty of upgraded legacy birds, and procurement of new birds will not magically stop @ 2020- so the fleet of "post-Soviet" birds will trend upward from my 500+estimate.

    Regarding upgraded planes, IMO the....51 upgraded Su-27SM that are still around will be out of the fleet by 2020, though I could be wrong about that.
    Su-24M2, the Gefest ones, all gone by then, and replaced by Su-34.
    Su-25SM fleet already numbers 84 birds, so I see Su-25 numbers staying at well over 100 past 2020.
    MiG-31BM of course will be around, probably a fleet or ~100 well past 2020.
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    sepheronx

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    Re: VVS Russian Air Force: News #1

    Post  sepheronx on Mon Feb 16, 2015 5:40 pm

    @ Garry

    Russia is the largest country in the world and sparcly populated in various regions, there is a lot of terriroty poorly covered. 500-600 fighters are not enough, even Turkey would field more aircrafts than that. Having roughly 1000 would be most ideal, and that is mixed in with air defense systems and ground based radar systems. The new aircrafts of TR-1 listing is a very good start. But they will definately need to field their older MiG-29's and Su-27's a bit longer than they may like, till more newer craft comes out. Eventually, a 1-3 conversion of Su-27P or S series being replaced by 1 Su-35 or Su-30 series, or maybe MiG-29M would be very beneficial to their protection. And I see them possibly upgrading remainder MiG-31's to use as replacements of older Su-27s in meantime for air patrols. I think they are pushing Su-34 sales more right now as Su-24 are the oldest of aircrafts still serving Russia and may need replacement ASAP so it is understandable.

    @TR1
    Those Su-27SM and other models, could they just go through an upgrade/facelift in order to make them fly longer and more effective? Because those jets are not that old, at least not as old as the Su-24's.
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    Re: VVS Russian Air Force: News #1

    Post  GarryB on Tue Feb 17, 2015 10:03 am

    I should be clearer, I meant serial T-50s. I would bet my savings those announcements regarding 2016 production are baloney. But that is just me.

    I would expect by next year they will have a few pre serial production aircraft to send to Air Force units to make manuals and develop tactics and also base serial production aircraft on.

    Wont have final engines and likely first iteration avionics that will continue to evolve over time.

    Su-25SM fleet already numbers 84 birds, so I see Su-25 numbers staying at well over 100 past 2020.
    MiG-31BM of course will be around, probably a fleet or ~100 well past 2020.

    There are rumours of replacements for both aircraft, though I doubt we will see them before 2020, I do think both these aircraft are important and therefore will remain in service in numbers till their replacements are ready.

    Russia is the largest country in the world and sparcly populated in various regions, there is a lot of terriroty poorly covered. 500-600 fighters are not enough, even Turkey would field more aircrafts than that.

    That is what radar is for... they don't need to continuously patrol the air space, they can remain on the ground in air bases while the air space is monitored and anything needing closer examination can be examined by an aircraft sent to investigate.

    Eventually, a 1-3 conversion of Su-27P or S series being replaced by 1 Su-35 or Su-30 series, or maybe MiG-29M would be very beneficial to their protection.

    By the 2030s they might have force multiplier drones that simply follow a fighter around acting like a wing man that carries lots of missiles and jamming and decoy equipment, but no pilot. When the fighter detects a target he can send his drone in closer for a close in look or if he knows it is hostile he can send it up a few kms in altitude and accelerate to supersonic and launch missiles at the target using higher energy flight manouvers and saving the primary fighter with sophisticated radar and sensors fuel and missiles so if they miss when it comes down to a dog fight your aircraft has more fuel and missiles ready to use.



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    Re: VVS Russian Air Force: News #1

    Post  nemrod on Tue Feb 17, 2015 2:02 pm

    sepheronx wrote:
    96 aircraft is a pathetic number.  Russia has a huge aging fleet of aircrafts and there is constant threat from US now at her borders, and cannot find money + pilots for it?
    Americans strategists are all, but not stupids.
    At first, as we've already said, a war between Russia, and US is simply impossible.
    Russia now has several hundreds of heavy, and light ICBM like SS-24, SS-25, SS-27 all with at least 10 MARV nuclear warheads -between 100 kt, to several Megatons-, as long as SLBM, Bombers, etc.... If a war is triggered US, and Russia won't exist. Noone in the world is too much stupid to die in a useless way.

    In order to understand what US threats are, we will have to study, analyse in objectives ways all previous conflicts where US were implied. Far from propaganda, and lies, we can notice that the US superiority was rarely du to technological advances, but in most of the case, by outnumbering their ennemis. US strategists are far to be idiots, they know very well that their F-22 -their ultimate fighter- might have dificulties even against a Mig 21-2000. No use to tell more about Mig-29, SU-27 families.

    In order to understand what are the goals of the threats, and what can do Russia, we will have to see the problem as geopolitical.
    If the F-22 is not able to attack Russia, he could be efficient against poor air defenses, poor air fighers, poor air trained pilots, weak, isolated countries. Who are the targets ? Third world countries. Why ? Because US consider that their wealths belong to US at first. If in your country there are copper, zinc, gold, oil, gas, etc...all these  richnesses owned to US. If you want to extract them, you will have to ask US companies, else, western companies. In order to do that, you need dollars, if you don't use $, you meet problems, before ultimate agression.
    In Syria for example they discovered huge reserves of gas, Assad, delivered immedialtly the licences for exploitations to russian companies. All transactions were in roubles and not in dollar. You understand why there is the civil war there. If the US take Syria, they will controll the world gas's price, Russia will be in danger. For that Russia is commited with Assad whatever there are. US gave up raids against Syria not because syrian air defenses -even S-300 won't deter US raids- but because Russia will be commited, and ...the Su-35, and Mig-35 will deter US air raids.
    A couple of years ago, Iran signed with China 100 billions $ contract for gas export. All this contract was not in dollar, but in Remimbi, for that reason US were infuriate. If you want to blow US empire, sell SU-35, or Mig-35 to Iran. Once these aircrafts between Iran's hands, an attack against Iran will be very costly for US, if not impossible. In fact US are very, very anxious about the proliferation of modern Sukhoi, and Migs because they hamper the developpement of US imperialism. And sometimes as North Korea, US are completly detered to attack, becaue North Korea has nuclear weapon to deter everyone to attack the country.
    The great difference between Russia, China, and US, America want all by imperialist behaviour, if not by terror.
    sepheronx wrote:
    The number of T-50's proposed, 250, is a pathetic number too, when Soviet Union was able to produce 500 MiG-31's and far more MiG-29's, Su-27's and fielding previous gen aircrafts at same time.  Russia put all the others in reserve, graveyard, while operating a pathetic fleet of MiG-29's, Su-27's and Su-24's with a few modern jets here and there.  So Russia is in no position to even defend itself conventionally.
    Russia with its actual fleet it is largely enough to deter any attack, by any agressors. You could not waste, as said TR1, and Garry, all your precious ressources to build figher-bombers, and recruiting soldiers. Russia has many challenge, at first to continue to develop siberia, by implementing more High-speed railway lines, research centers, modernizing its servers, microprocessors, super-calculators, agriculture, new russian operating systems, phone industry etc...US by pursuing their imperialist behaviour are in the roads of abysm

    TR1 wrote:
    The only current MiG-29SMT orders are the 16 airframes ordered until the MiG-35 is ready.

    Add that to the 34 Algerian birds, and that is where I got 50 from.
    It is very good news, if Russia could sell for example 100 SU-35 to Iran, and 100 SU-35, 100 Mig-35 to Algeria, with 100 SU-35 to Venezuela,  it could completly change US perceptions. This kind of news will infuriate US, because it will become more and more difficult to agress, or terror a country.


    Kimppis wrote:
    Yeah, I agree that China is a major issue for the US. However, I don't think they'll get Su-35s. We've been hearing that for something like 10 years now. It's just not going to happen. Su-35 is an excellent aircraft, no doubt about that, but the Chinese just don't need it anymore. And if they are going to get them, the numbers are going to be low.
    They've already ordered 24 SU-35, and has options for others, not only buying, but China could produce its own SU-35, with their new thrust vector engine WS-10G, waiting for their WS-15. US won't be able to attack China.

    Kimppis wrote:
    China is going to have around 1000 4th and 5th gen fighters by 2020 (or 2021) and that is going to increase close to 1500 by 2025. They already have around 700. And that doesn't even include 200+ JH-7s. Also the European context is important: France and UK each have only something like 200+ fighters. And we must not forget the Russian IADS.
    Very interresting.
    Could you please give us your sources.[/quote]
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    Kimppis

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    Re: VVS Russian Air Force: News #1

    Post  Kimppis on Tue Feb 17, 2015 7:56 pm

    TR1 wrote:1.) I should be clearer, I meant serial T-50s. I would bet my savings those announcements regarding 2016 production are baloney. But that is just me.

    Ok, now I get it. That's certainly possible but did they actually say that they are going to deliver 12 in 2016? Or did they only mention that the deliveries are going to number at around 12 on average per year, or something along those lines? So let's say that they build 6 Su-50s in 2016 and 12 beginning from 2017 -> 54 delivered by the end of 2020.

    Btw, I think Russian fighter inventory is closer to 800 aircraft - not 500 - and I think that is an excellent number and enough for Russia. Around 550 newly built by 2020, that is pretty much 70% of 800. And then we can add the remaining Su-24's and Su-25's (and strategic bombers of course) -> over 1000 "combat aircraft" (or whatever the term is).  

    nemrod wrote:
    They've already ordered 24 SU-35, and has options for others, not only buying, but China could produce its own SU-35, with their new thrust vector engine WS-10G, waiting for their WS-15. US won't be able to attack China.

    No orders have been placed. Only rumours.

    Kimppis wrote:
    China is going to have around 1000 4th and 5th gen fighters by 2020 (or 2021) and that is going to increase close to 1500 by 2025. They already have around 700. And that doesn't even include 200+ JH-7s. Also the European context is important: France and UK each have only something like 200+ fighters. And we must not forget the Russian IADS.
    nemrod wrote:Very interresting.
    Could you please give us your sources.

    It's impossible to get any "official" numbers, but the Chinese have atleast 260 J-10A's and 270 J-11's. Now J-10B is coming online and atleast 24 have already been built. And they have around 100 Su-30MKK's. So that's 654 and I'm not even including their old SU-27's. In addition, they have around dozen (atleast) J-15's (for the carrier) and some new J-16's (strike fighter)... So that's roughly 700 aircraft.

    Also, it seems that J-20 is moving forward nicely, so it's probably going to enter service in 2017 at the latest, not 2019. Something like 3 new prototypes flew last year and some posters on Sinodefence forum are saying that J-20 has already entered LRIP due to the impressive progress. I think globalsecurity.org forecasted around 24 J-20's in 2020, but that number was probably based on 2019 service entry, so the numbers are likely to be higher, maybe 50 in 2020.

    So overall, it's pretty much inevitable that they will have around 1000 4th and 5th fighters in 2020, even with a reasonably modest production rate. We must also remember that they should have 200+ billion - even nominally that is - military budget in 2020. And they really need to get rid of their J-7's and J-8's as soon as possible, so it all makes sense.

    And as I already mentioned, that doesn't even include the 200+ already built JH-7s. Also, the Chinese have an impressive IADS and land-based missile force. And their navy in 2020: 2-3 CV's, 6 052C DDG's, atleast 8 (it could be 12) 052D DDG's and atleast 2 055 DDG's (around 120 VLS, 12 000 tons), not to mention 4 Sovs, atleast 40+ modern SSK's, 10+ nuclear submarines, 24+ new frigates, 24+ new corvettes... They are going to be a force to be reckoned with in the western Pacific. We are living interesting times.


    Last edited by Kimppis on Tue Feb 17, 2015 8:13 pm; edited 1 time in total

    Firebird

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    plane numbers

    Post  Firebird on Tue Feb 17, 2015 8:10 pm

    Its interesting to look at plane numbers.
    Russia is producing at quite a high rate currently.

    The downside is that many older planes are coming up to retirement age.
    AND there was a lull in production or new devlts from the 1990s thro to around the mid/late 2000s.

    The other issue is that there are numerous replacement planes in development or recently commenced production.

    In the 4/4.5th G there's the Mig 35 and the Su 34 and 35.
    And there are PAK prospective variants of the T50, a Mig 31 replacement, an Su 25 replacement, the Mig LMFS etc.

    Ideally, these would all be in mass production by now or sooner.

    America produces vast amts of equipment not to defend its own borders, but its own meddling interests around the World. Thats why it can afford it.

    To me, the solution for Russia is to find a way to make equipment pay for itself when there ISNT the threat of a war. So for me, that means Russian bases abroad, for the benefit of friends/partners/allies etc.

    If Russia can tighten and enlarge the Eurasian Union, and enhance ties with countries like India, Venezuela, perhaps Vietnam etc, then it can afford a much larger air force that isn't there mostly for the biggest and most unthinkable wars.

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