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    Russian Strategic Nuclear Warheads: Numbers

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    franco
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    Re: Russian Strategic Nuclear Warheads: Numbers

    Post  franco on Sat Apr 02, 2016 3:10 pm

    Latest START figures released for March 2016.


    New START March 2016 aggregate numbers

    The U.S. State Department released aggregate New START numbers from the 1 March 2016 data exchange. Russia declared 1735 deployed warheads, 521 deployed launchers, and 856 total launchers. In September 2015 the numbers were 1648, 526, and 877 respectively.

    The increase of 87 deployed warheads is most likely due to the deployment of Bulava missiles on the Vladimir Monomakh submarine that was completed in April 2015. Some older missiles were apparently withdrawn from service.

    The U.S. numbers in March 2016 were 1481 warheads, 741 deployed and 878 total launchers (1538, 762, and 898 in September 2015).
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    Re: Russian Strategic Nuclear Warheads: Numbers

    Post  max steel on Sat Apr 09, 2016 11:38 pm

    Russia Deployed Over 150 New Warheads in Past Year

    Russia deployed 153 strategic nuclear warheads over the past year under the New START arms treaty while the U.S. military pared its nuclear forces by 57 warheads, according to State Department figures released last week.

    The increase in warheads by Moscow appears to be part of Moscow’s large-scale strategic nuclear forces buildup.

    Defense officials disclosed last week that Russia is doubling the number of strategic nuclear warheads and remains over the 1,550 warhead limit set by the 2010 New START arms treaty.

    The Russian increases are due to the deployment of new, multiple-warhead SS-27 Mod 2 road-mobile missiles and SS-N-32 submarine-launched ballistic missiles, officials said.

    Russia’s Defense Ministry announced last month that its nuclear forces will add 20 new SS-27 Mod 2 missiles, known as Yars, this year. New SS-N-32s, called Bulava by Russia, also are being fielded. Both missiles can be equipped with up to 10 warheads each. The SS-N-32s are deployed on new Borei-class missile submarines.

    The treaty requires the United States and Russia to reduce their arsenal of deployed strategic warheads to 1,550 by February 2018.

    The warhead numbers include weapons used on land-based intercontinental missiles, submarine-launches missiles and on bombers.

    Additionally, the latest data released by the State Department on Friday shows the Russians added six new missiles over the past year, while reducing its launchers by 34 nuclear missile launchers or bombers.

    For the United States, 20 missile launchers or bombers were eliminated over the past year under the treaty, along with eliminating 44 systems, either intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), sub-launched missiles, or nuclear-capable bombers.

    The large Russian warhead buildup, combined with official statements from Moscow questioning the utility of continued adherence to the treaty, are raising concerns about a break-out from the treaty limits.

    Mark Schneider, a former Pentagon nuclear forces policymaker, said the increase by Russia in deployed warheads is greater than analysts expected and signals Moscow is set to violate New START in the coming months.

    “Russia is now at 198 more deployed warheads than at entry into force [of the New START treaty],” Schneider said.

    The treaty went into effect in February 2011. Since then, Russia gradually has built up its warhead totals. The warhead numbers increased sharply over the past year, reflecting multiple-warhead missile deployments.

    “I believe the odds are that Russia will terminate the treaty in 2017,” Schneider said. “That would pocket all the U.S. reductions, give them more weapons, and it might be seen by [Russian leader Vladimir] Putin as revenge for the Anti-Ballistic Missile treaty [withdrawal].”

    The United States withdrew from the ABM treaty in 2002 and began building missile defenses, a move that Russia has interpreted as a threat.

    Additionally, Russia will be emboldened to pull out of the New START treaty by the failure of the United States to address Russia’s violation of the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty, Schneider said. The treaty bans the construction of intermediate-range ballistic and cruise missiles. Russia breached the accord with a new SS-N-8 cruise missile, U.S. officials have said.

    Whether or not the Russians pull the plug on New START, the number of Russian warheads will be much larger than 1,550,” Schneider said, noting state-run Russian press reports put Moscow’s long-term warhead level at 2,100, while a U.S. think tank estimates the Russians will deploy around 2,500 warheads by 2025.

    Schneider, now with the National Institute for Public Policy, also said the estimates of Russian warheads do not include announced plans by Moscow to build at least 50 new Tu-160 nuclear bombers. “That will push the number to over 3,000 when this program is completed,” he said.

    At the same time the United States has continued to cut its force levels, he noted.

    Asked about the Russian warhead increase, Blake Narendra, a spokesman for the State Department’s bureau of arms control, verification, and compliance, said both the United States and Russia continue to fully implement the New START treaty “in a business-like manner.”

    Narendra said under the treaty there are no interim limits on warheads so Russia has months to comply with the 1,550 warhead limit.

    Russian modernization of its nuclear forces will produce “fluctuations” in the number of deployed warheads as well as delivery systems, he said of the warhead increases.

    As for multiple warheads being added to new Russian missiles, Narendra said, “the United States itself maintains an upload capability on its Minuteman III ICBMs.”

    The State Department expects Russia to meet the New START central limits by 2018, he said.

    In addition to new nuclear forces, Russia has also adopted a new doctrine that emphasizes the use of nuclear forces in a conflict.

    The combination of new forces and the threatening nuclear doctrine has prompted U.S. military leaders to warn about the growing threat posed by Russia.

    Gen. Philip Breedlove, commander of the U.S. European Command and of NATO, said in February that Russia has “chosen to be an adversary and poses a long-term existential threat” to the United States and its allies.

    “To counter Russia, Eucom, working with allies and partners, is deterring Russia now and preparing to fight and win if necessary,” Breedlove told Congress.

    A report by the National Institute for Public Policy concludes that Russia is building up its nuclear forces to instill fear of Moscow.

    “Russian leaders appear to view nuclear weapons as the ultimate way to make the world ‘fear,’ or at least respect Russia, and provide a political lever to intimidate, coerce, and deter Western states from attempting to interfere militarily against Russian expansionism,” states the report, co-written by Schneider and Mark Payne, another former Pentagon nuclear forces expert.

    In addition to the new SS-27s and SS-N-32s, Moscow is building a new heavy ICBM called Sarmat that will have up to 15 warheads; another long-range missile called the RS-26 with MIRVs, and a railroad-launcher missile called Barguzin.

    Moscow has also showcased a developmental drone submarine called Kanyon with a megaton-sized nuclear warhead capable of blowing up harbors and ports.

    “Russia’s apparently low nuclear threshold raises the stakes in any conflict, and compels adversaries to confront the possibility they could become involved, so too would Russian nuclear weapons,” the report said.

    “This has been prominently displayed throughout hostilities in Ukraine, as Russian nuclear exercises, official statements and bomber patrols are intended to intimidate western states.”

    The report concludes: “Whether it be covering hybrid [warfare] operations, intimidating European states or potentially employing nuclear strikes to defeat a conventionally superior adversary, nuclear weapons and threat of their use are likely to remain, if not grow, in importance for Russia.”

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    Re: Russian Strategic Nuclear Warheads: Numbers

    Post  Austin on Sun Apr 24, 2016 8:16 am

    FAS: Status of World Nuclear Forces

    http://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/


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    Re: Russian Strategic Nuclear Warheads: Numbers

    Post  Austin on Sun Apr 24, 2016 8:19 am

    FAS: Russian nuclear forces, 2016

    http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/00963402.2016.1170359
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    Re: Russian Strategic Nuclear Warheads: Numbers

    Post  max steel on Sun Apr 24, 2016 8:37 am

    Austin wrote:FAS: Status of World Nuclear Forces




    Wrong data. Federation of American Scientists are unaware i suppose.
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    Re: Russian Strategic Nuclear Warheads: Numbers

    Post  Isos on Tue Jul 05, 2016 8:45 pm

    https://issuu.com/openbriefing/docs/tridentcommbrief1

    Trident commission in UK analyses nuclear capabilities of each country. Tell many umbers like active warheads, strategic and tactical number of warheads...
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    Re: Russian Strategic Nuclear Warheads: Numbers

    Post  sepheronx on Sat Aug 06, 2016 9:28 am

    It is always talked about ICBM's, but what about Russia's tactical nuclear arsenal? Do we have any figures regarding how many warheads they use and what exact missiles are currently in service?
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    Re: Russian Strategic Nuclear Warheads: Numbers

    Post  George1 on Wed Oct 05, 2016 11:25 am

    New START September 2016 numbers

    The U.S. State Department released aggregate New START numbers from the 1 September 2016 data exchange. Russia declared 1796 deployed warheads, 508 deployed launchers, and 847 total launchers. In March 2016 the numbers were 1735, 521, and 856 respectively.

    The U.S. numbers in September 2016 were 1367 warheads, 681 deployed and 848 total launchers (1481, 741, and 878 in March 2016).

    http://russianforces.org/blog/2016/10/new_start_september_2016_numbe.shtml


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    Re: Russian Strategic Nuclear Warheads: Numbers

    Post  Austin on Tue Jan 17, 2017 7:42 pm

    Summing up the 2016 strategic arms

    http://bmpd.livejournal.com/2358977.html

    Nearing the end of next year. Briefly about some results.

    As part of the Strategic Missile Forces. It conducted a large planned work. Conducted deployment, setting into service of new complexes. Yarsov has four versions with different letters and numbers - the two are in service, in two trials. In the Sarmat. Occurring problems are solved control, have been successfully test firing. Conducted successful trials throwing Barguzin. Frontier is ready for deployment. Vanguard alive. Unfortunately, there were emergency launches, but it is testing a new, and this is normal. The reasons are eliminated, measures are being taken. One of the tests - the same "mysterious explosion". Conducted a series of exercises and training, improve cooperation with air defense, PDSS and other subcontractors. Special wheeled chassis MZKT-79291 with the wheel formula 12x12 development of "Minsk Wheel Tractor Plant" (MZKT) (c) of "Minsk Wheel Tractor Plant"


    As part of the sailors. Worked through operation of Mace. Work is continuing on its deployment. Makeevtsy this year offered an alternative Bulava - a rocket with mass-dimensional characteristics similar to mace, but with increased power available and devoid of "shortcomings" of the Sineva in the start. It increases production of rockets Caliber plants operate around the clock. The task - ensuring massive naval cruise missiles. Zircon is underway testing until all successfully. The development of two new "minerals" has replaced the zirconium. One - of evolutionary development, the second - the revolutionary.

    The aircraft part. Work on upgrading the existing fleet of vehicles and the production of HSA for him. Created several promising cruise missiles, in addition to the X-101/102. We demonstrate the appearance of the PAK DA, work is underway to purge.

    Large works are in the field of hypersonic. There is a perfection of materials and technologies, as well as aspects of combat employment, the definition of the role and place of hypersonic weapons in weapons system. GEO create patterns of different classes with a ramjet engine, and with the other principles of acceleration.

    The big shift took place this year in terms of "exotic". Created and shown samples of weapons using the EMR, the laser radiation and a number of other principles. Several systems taken into service. Very much has been done in terms of EW - complexes of more than a dozen different applications. Currently, work is underway to assess their effectiveness in the interaction with the covers up their forces and means. Showed a special "interceptor drone." The tests will take place in the field at the beginning of next year.

    Ukrainian state long sought and finally achieved attention to themselves Strategic Forces.

    The United States is similar to trying to attract the attention of the forces and means of ITV. While they did not use against the United States, but the constant baseless accusations "of Russian hacking" might "wake up" and the integral part of our Armed Forces. If we introduced sanctions against us on spurious grounds, and then we can really start to engage in what we are accused.

    In general, the work is carried out intensively, a lot of work, the work of promising and interesting.

    Happy New Year! Peace in the New Year, kindness, intellect, fruitful work, the implementation of the conceived, happiness and health!


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    Summing up the 2016 strategic arms

    Post  Arrow on Tue Jan 17, 2017 9:48 pm

    Makeevtsy this year offered an alternative Bulava - a rocket with mass-dimensional characteristics similar to mace, but with increased power available and devoid of "shortcomings" of the Sineva in the start. It wrote:

    So Russia wants to replace Mace a new SLBM ?
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    Re: Russian Strategic Nuclear Warheads: Numbers

    Post  eehnie on Thu Feb 16, 2017 3:02 pm

    http://russianforces.org/current/

    Current status

    In January 2016 Russia was estimated to have 525 strategic launchers and about 1800 nuclear warheads. In its September 2015 New START data exchange Russia reported 526 deployed launchers with 1648 New START-accountable nuclear warheads.

    The Strategic Rocket Forces were estimated to have 299 operational missile systems that include missiles that can carry 902 warheads. These include 46 R-36M2 (SS-18) missiles, 30 UR-100NUTTH (SS-19) missiles, 72 road-mobile Topol (SS-25) systems, 60 silo-based and 18 road-mobile Topol-M (SS-27) systems, and 73 RS-24 missiles [SS-29]].

    [Strategic Rocket Forces...]

    The Russian strategic fleet includes 10 operational strategic missile submarines with SLBMs, whose missiles can carry 160 missiles with 704 nuclear warheads. Five operational Project 667BDRM submarines are based in the Northern Fleet. These submarines carry 80 R-29RM (SS-N-23) launchers. One Project 955 submarine with 16 Bulava SLBMs on board is also based in the Northern Fleet. The only remaining Pacific Fleet base hosts two 667BDR (Delta III) submarines, which carry 36 R-29R (SS-N-18) missiles and two Project 955 submarines with 32 Bulava SLBMs.

    [Strategic fleet...]

    The Russian strategic aviation consists of 66 bombers that carry an estimated 200 long-range cruise missiles and bombs. The bombers are 11 Tu-160 (Blackjack) and 55 Tu-95MS (Bear H). The bombers can carry various modifications of the Kh-55 (AS-15) and Kh-101 cruise missiles and gravity bombs.

    [Strategic aviation...]

    In November 2015 Russia launched the first satellite of the new-generation early-warning system, EKS. The satellite is currently undergoing tests.

    [Early warning and defense...]

    [January 12, 2016]

    I would expect Russia move their silo-bassed SS-27 to mobile platforms.

    Also I would expect Russia to include armoured cabins for all their mobile platforms. It would help in the scorting and it would mean an important modernization, increasing by the right way the modernization rates on strategic forces.
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    Re: Russian Strategic Nuclear Warheads: Numbers

    Post  GarryB on Fri Feb 17, 2017 3:17 am

    Silos are expensive but generally require a direct hit to defeat.

    Once you have built them they are a rather effective and secure way of having ready to launch missiles.

    A few batteries of SAMs nearby can be used to defend from conventional or first strike attack so they are pretty safe too... they should be able to launch the missiles before any successful attack can take them out.


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    Re: Russian Strategic Nuclear Warheads: Numbers

    Post  eridan on Sat Mar 11, 2017 1:54 pm

    Is there an alternative source to numbers of Russian nuclear arsenal, other than FAS or new START treaty numbers?

    More precisely, is there a source mentioning number of non-deployed ICBM and SLBM, as well as number of non-deployed warheads FOR ICBM and SLBM?

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    Re: Russian Strategic Nuclear Warheads: Numbers

    Post  franco on Sat Mar 11, 2017 3:03 pm

    eridan wrote:Is there an alternative source to numbers of Russian nuclear arsenal, other than FAS or new START treaty numbers?

    More precisely, is there a source mentioning number of non-deployed ICBM and SLBM, as well as number of non-deployed warheads FOR ICBM and SLBM?


    Are you talking about these numbers?


    New START September 2016 numbers

    The U.S. State Department released aggregate New START numbers from the 1 September 2016 data exchange. Russia declared 1796 deployed warheads, 508 deployed launchers, and 847 total launchers. In March 2016 the numbers were 1735, 521, and 856 respectively.

    The U.S. numbers in September 2016 were 1367 warheads, 681 deployed and 848 total launchers (1481, 741, and 878 in March 2016).


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    Re: Russian Strategic Nuclear Warheads: Numbers

    Post  eridan on Sat Mar 11, 2017 3:49 pm

    I am talking about source different from new START treaty. As one can see, those numbers are for deployed missiles and warheads only. FAS does offer some idea about non deployed warheads, but with inadequate detail, as one can't deduce number of ballistic missile warheads from other strategic warheads (warheads to be deployed via strategic bombers).

    Furthermore, there is no info on number of non-active icbm/slbm. Surely there must be some that are stored someplace, even if not used for some years now.
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    Re: Russian Strategic Nuclear Warheads: Numbers

    Post  franco on Sat Mar 11, 2017 4:32 pm

    FAS does offer some idea about non deployed warheads, but with inadequate detail, as one can't deduce number of ballistic missile warheads from other strategic warheads (warheads to be deployed via strategic bombers).
    I don't know of any and the FAS is pretty much the only group offering detailed estimates. That treaty nor any other doesn't requires the total number of nuclear warheads to be released and the countries involved don't seem to be interested in sharing.  

    Furthermore, there is no info on number of non-active icbm/slbm. Surely there must be some that are stored someplace, even if not used for some years now.
    That information is released with the Start figures in the "508 deployed launchers, and 847 total launchers".

    NOTES:
    - For the purpose of the START treaty, an active strategic bomber counts as one deployed launcher and one deployed warhead. One in reserve would count as one total launcher and 0 deployed warheads.
    - Apparently another particularity is the SS19 has to be kept unfueled and unarmed due to the volatility of it's fuel. So they would be counted in with the total launchers but not deployed launchers and with 0 deployed warheads. Or so I have read.
    - Another rumor which may have some credibility is that a mobile Yars may carry only 3 warheads as opposed to the silo Yars carrying 4 warheads.

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    Re: Russian Strategic Nuclear Warheads: Numbers

    Post  eridan on Sun Mar 12, 2017 12:31 am

    Thanks for pointing out the 847 total launchers. Somehow i forgot about that figure. But on second thought, 847 minus 508 deployed launchers should mean 340 more are in storage of some sort.

    Question remains whether bombers are included in the 508 figure. Logic would suggest yes, due to definition of new START treaty and how it handles bombers. So, 508 deployed minus 70 or so bombers would mean around 440 deployed icbm and slbm.

    Now, START doesn't go into details on those but FAS does guesstimate their numbers. Their figures don't mesh with START though. They say 316 ICBM and 176 SLBM (alongside 68 bombers). That's 482 without bombers or 550 with bombers.

    Since FAS does only guesstimate though, and for some reason they guesstimated the number of deployed slbm simply as number of total subs times number of missiles per sub. That's almost certainly not a good guesstimate, as all other slbm users have less missiles than total number of sub silos due to fact that it's impossible to have all ssbn operational at once.

    So it does seem plausible to me that deployed slbm number is less than 176. If 508 total figure is used, then 316 icbm and 68 bombers would yield some 124 slbm deployed. Which seems like a reasonable figure, little over two thirds of total fleet potential.

    And then, out of remaining undeployed 340 or so launcher missiles, great majority (almost 300?) should then be old ICBMs.
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    Re: Russian Strategic Nuclear Warheads: Numbers

    Post  franco on Sun Mar 12, 2017 1:23 am

    This is the Russian site if you are not familiar. His numbers don't jive either but explains his breakdown.

    http://russianforces.org/

    IMO the active bomber total is high, probably no more then 50 or so.
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    Re: Russian Strategic Nuclear Warheads: Numbers

    Post  GarryB on Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:10 am

    - Apparently another particularity is the SS19 has to be kept unfueled and unarmed due to the volatility of it's fuel. So they would be counted in with the total launchers but not deployed launchers and with 0 deployed warheads.

    Where did this silly information come from?

    The stilletto has a storage period of something like 20 odd years... are you trying to suggest they kept them with no fuel and no warhead on board and fuelled and armed them before launch...

    How could they even do that in a missile launch silo?

    The only Russian missiles I know of that require fuelling before use are the Kh-22M anti ship missiles, and space launch vehicles with cryogenic fuels that cannot be stored in the missile.

    Amusing for you to suggest that a missile in service at one time in the hundreds would need to be fuelled and armed before it could be launched... that is just crazy... only the first Soviet ICBMs had that problem with their cryogenic components like the R-7.


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    Re: Russian Strategic Nuclear Warheads: Numbers

    Post  franco on Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:22 am

    GarryB wrote:
    - Apparently another particularity is the SS19 has to be kept unfueled and unarmed due to the volatility of it's fuel. So they would be counted in with the total launchers but not deployed launchers and with 0 deployed warheads.

    Where did this silly information come from?

    The stilletto has a storage period of something like 20 odd years... are you trying to suggest they kept them with no fuel and no warhead on board and fuelled and armed them before launch...

    How could they even do that in a missile launch silo?

    The only Russian missiles I know of that require fuelling before use are the Kh-22M anti ship missiles, and space launch vehicles with cryogenic fuels that cannot be stored in the missile.

    Amusing for you to suggest that a missile in service at one time in the hundreds would need to be fuelled and armed before it could be launched... that is just crazy... only the first Soviet ICBMs had that problem with their cryogenic components like the R-7.

    Bro, I just report it. Don't make it up!

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    Re: Russian Strategic Nuclear Warheads: Numbers

    Post  eridan on Sun Mar 12, 2017 1:54 pm

    Thanks for the link, Franco!

    Just to be sure, current active SSBN force features 3 Boreys (It used to be spelled Borei when romanized. What happened?), 6 Delta IVs and 3 Delta III?

    As for fueling missiles like Stiletto, as far as I know *ALL* liquid fueled ICBM are normally kept inside silos without fuel. They get fueled only for exercise and when there's perception of immediate threat. Once fueled, that fuel degrades over time so they can't be held in such a prepared mode for long. AFAIK, initially in the cold war that used to be just days, but by the end of cold war liquid fueled missiles could be kept fueled inside silos for a few weeks and still perform within allowable limits.
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    Re: Russian Strategic Nuclear Warheads: Numbers

    Post  franco on Sun Mar 12, 2017 2:26 pm

    Active would be 3 Borei, 5 Delta IV's and 2 Delta III's. One each Delta III and IV are in refit (dry dock) plus the Typhoon (used as a test vessel) could be rearmed, so those would count against the total launchers.
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    Re: Russian Strategic Nuclear Warheads: Numbers

    Post  Isos on Sun Mar 12, 2017 7:00 pm

    franco wrote:Active would be 3 Borei, 5 Delta IV's and 2 Delta III's. One each Delta III and IV are in refit (dry dock) plus the Typhoon (used as a test vessel) could be rearmed, so those would count against the total launchers.

    The last Typhoon was used for the testing of bulava. Now they have Boreis for operting and testing this missile. Si it is no more in service and will probably finish like the others ? Moreover, its crew is probably the best of the russian navy, they will be send on the next Borei-M and wont train another for operatin the typhoon.
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    Re: Russian Strategic Nuclear Warheads: Numbers

    Post  max steel on Sun Mar 12, 2017 8:35 pm

    franco wrote:

    Bro, I just report it. Don't make it up!



    Don't take Pavel Podvig words seriously.
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    Re: Russian Strategic Nuclear Warheads: Numbers

    Post  franco on Sun Mar 12, 2017 11:57 pm

    max steel wrote:
    franco wrote:

    Bro, I just report it. Don't make it up!



    Don't take Pavel Podvig words seriously.

    I have also seen it from other sources too. Sometimes it is unfueled but armed, sometimes fueled but unarmed. Sometimes unfueled and unarmed. So I actually don't know, but am suspicious that they are both fueled and armed after all that. And back to my original statement, I used the "apparently" due to this. Very Happy

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