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    Naval conflict brewing with Nato over Syria

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    GarryB
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    Re: Naval conflict brewing with Nato over Syria

    Post  GarryB on Tue Jan 17, 2012 11:28 am

    The problem for Syria of course is that even with the best air defence systems... where do you hide?

    In Serbia there were forests and mountains, while Syria is more open, which would make operating effectively difficult, and mobility absolutely critical.

    Distraction, concealment, mobility, deception... such forces would be tested to the limit, but if the Syrian Air Force can maintain control of its air space then it has a chance, but I rather suspect a huge shortage of war supplies, plus the internal threat would make attack easier than defence.

    The obvious solution for Syria is to simply threaten to launch ballistic missiles at nuclear facilities in Israel and Turkey if the outside interference doesn't stop.

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    Re: Naval conflict brewing with Nato over Syria

    Post  Austin on Tue Jan 17, 2012 11:35 am

    Well Syria need to device tactics based on their environment , Mobility is for one , the other is Decoys and Deception , other being maintaining good Discipline and using guerrilla like tactics against far superior force.

    For once Russia should step in there is no point in being fence sitters when it has so little ally in ME.

    If Syria is attacked by NATO then they should use their missile to attack NATO radar in Turkey and Israel Diamona reactor after all the Israel came in and destroyed their reactor some time back.

    The other option for both Iran and Syria is to unite and attack key targets in ME like Oil Refineries in Saudi and other countries once the oil prices goes high Western Forces will back out.

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    Re: Naval conflict brewing with Nato over Syria

    Post  Austin on Tue Jan 17, 2012 11:39 am

    I find it strange that Israel has covert Nuclear weapons program and even has nuclear weapons and no one talks about it or imposes sanctions.

    But Iran cannot operate even reactor for Nuclear energy or Develop its own Nuclear Weapons.

    Wonder why this double standard , Why dont they make ME including Israel a nuclear free area and why just focus on Iran or Syria.

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    Re: Naval conflict brewing with Nato over Syria

    Post  Austin on Tue Jan 17, 2012 12:58 pm

    Reading the AW&ST report , it seems Israel was preparing well to deal with SA-17 and Pantsir SAM that Syria will eventually get.

    Israel mastery over EW is quite well known , so much so they insisted having their own EW suite on F-35.

    I hope the SA-17 and Pantsyr has good ECCM capabilities and dont turn into a DoDo in front of very new Israel EW system.

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    Re: Naval conflict brewing with Nato over Syria

    Post  Austin on Tue Jan 17, 2012 1:04 pm

    Check videos of Syrian Army firing BUK-M2E in latest Exercise

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1d89CA0eiFA

    GarryB
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    Re: Naval conflict brewing with Nato over Syria

    Post  GarryB on Tue Jan 17, 2012 3:26 pm

    Wonder why this double standard , Why dont they make ME including Israel a nuclear free area and why just focus on Iran or Syria.


    Because when the US jumps up and down and claims Iran wants nuclear weapons it draws attention away from issues like Zionist oppression of Palestinians in their own country.

    The justification for Israel to have nuclear weapons is in case their neighbours get similar capability... so if Israel or the US will attack any country in the region... except Israel that tries to get nuclear weapons capability then Israel doesn't need nuclear weapons then does it.

    The problem is that Iran has signed the nonproliferation treaty which means it has legal and legitimate access to civilian nuclear technology for peaceful purposes. The Israelis never signed that treaty, but then India and Pakistan didn't either and when they declared nuclear weapon capability status there were sanctions and international condemnation. The US protected Israel from such things.

    Iran is being punished for doing all the right things, and is getting pretty severe economic sanctions because Israel and the US think they might be trying to achieve nuclear weapons status. The irony is that they claim the Iranian wish to produce its own nuclear fuel for its reactors is a sign they want to make weapons grade uranium to make a bomb, yet the sanctions and witch hunts and quite frankly bullsh!t Iran is getting from the west (EU and US) is perfect evidence that they need to enrich their own nuclear fuel, because if they don't then fuel imports and sanctions would be the next option to try to control Iran.

    The US and EU and Israel claim without any solid evidence that Iran wants nuclear weapons capability, while Iran wants an independent energy resource that cannot be cut off or sanctioned by outsiders. Iran has no oil refinery capacity of its own and so it exports crude oil and imports petrol and diesel and other processed fuels. Having nuclear reactors and the ability to process Uranium into fuel , and there is Uranium in Iran, would give them a reliable, stable power supply that would allow real economic growth for Iran... clearly something the US and Israel want to prevent.

    The irony is that US and Israeli and EU actions only make the faction within Iran that want nuclear weapons even stronger... actually testing a nuclear weapon would likely be the only thing that would make the US and Israel and EU back off.

    I hope the SA-17 and Pantsyr has good ECCM capabilities and dont turn into a DoDo in front of very new Israel EW system.


    I would expect the export models would not be as good as domestic, but at the end of the day systems need to be tested in battle, and changes in both hardware and software and tactics are needed to make them effective.

    Russian systems are developed with backup modes in case of heavy ECCM environments. It is all together possible that a Hermes missile with anti radiation features could be developed and fitted to Pantsir-S1... perhaps two per launcher, so in combat if a jammer is detected they can direct those missiles at the jammer platforms.

    Jamming and anti radiation systems for use against MMW frequency radars is actually rather difficult... otherwise Longbow Apaches would be easy to defeat... just fire a few ARMs at them.

    Often the situation with modern radars is that the small sidelobes of modern radars means that the only aircraft that can launch ARMs at the SAM are aircraft that are locked by the SAMs radar. Note the Patriot battery that had its radar taken out was taken down by a HARM launched from an aircraft the battery was tracking. It then becomes a duel between the SAM and the aircraft... and the Panstir-S1 has very high velocity missiles and the ability to engage 4 targets at once... including HARMs. Buk can also engage HARMs and aircraft out to fairly long range.

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    Re: Naval conflict brewing with Nato over Syria

    Post  Austin on Tue Jan 17, 2012 3:51 pm

    I for one wont have any problems in Iran developing a nuclear weapon , Nuclear weapon in their hands are as dangerous in hands of Iran as it is in hands of Israel.

    If International community pushes Iran too much then they are better off exploding a Nuke much like North korea did. That would ease the tension.

    Let US or Israel then decide what to do next , at the least Russia and China can veto their UN sanctions etc

    I am fairly certain Iran today as the ability to make a Fission Weapon and they do have enriched Uranium or Plotonium to make few bombs , the only thing is when will they go open with it , As usual i expect all the intelligence to know little.

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    Re: Naval conflict brewing with Nato over Syria

    Post  runaway on Wed Jan 18, 2012 1:20 am

    I have read alot of the SU-33, making training flights from Kuznetsov, all away from England to Greece and Syria.
    But nothing about the MiG29 Kub which was supposed to get experience until its deployment on the Vikramaditya next year.

    And nothing about the plans to deploy MiG29 Kub on Kuznetsov in the near future. The SU-33 is getting old, and the new Kub has good range now, and you can get 28-32 MiG“s on the K, against only 18 SU.

    And here is another navy air news:

    Deck-based version of American fighter F-35 Lightning II happened to be incapable for deck landing, writes The Daily Telegraph referring to Pentagon's report. The point is that arrester hook of F-35C is situated too close to landing gear, and this poses a problem for pilot to hook arrester's barrier cable. According to the report, F-35C took part in 8 test landings on the deck simulator. None of them was successful.

    It was also mentioned in the Pentagon's summary that F-35C won't be capable to launch AIM-132 ASRAAM missiles operated by Royal Air Force. Besides, US Department of Defense made a guess that F-35C was not adapted for air support which is one of the key tasks for deck-based aviation. Reportedly, some parameters were not tested at all, so other defects can be revealed in future.

    According to Pentagon, if the fighter is not redesigned soon, the F-35C program could be in precarious state. The project can be also shut down due to considerable costs of redesigning works and engineering changes of already assembled fighters.

    It is noteworthy that two out of three programs currently run under the F-35 project are on the threshold of closing. In Jan 2011, Pentagon set a two-year trial period for F-35B STOVL fighter; in that period engineers will have to eliminate all defects revealed. If experts fail to meet the deadline, the project would be closed.


    GarryB
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    Re: Naval conflict brewing with Nato over Syria

    Post  GarryB on Wed Jan 18, 2012 6:29 am

    I for one wont have any problems in Iran developing a nuclear weapon , Nuclear weapon in their hands are as dangerous in hands of Iran as it is in hands of Israel.


    I totally agree.

    Iran having a nuclear weapon capability would have a very stabilising influence and force the US and Israel to treat Iran with the respect it deserves.

    Claims that Iran will supply nuclear weapons to terrorist groups is bunk... the US has supported lots of terrorist groups and has never seen fit to supply those groups with nuclear weapons.

    Pakistan would be more likely to give nuclear weapons technology to terrorist groups and there is no clear evidence or even suspicion they have, so why even consider Iran might? More importantly why are they punishing Iran because of all these things they say they might or want to do?

    As if that was a crime.

    Perhaps George Orwell was right in his book 1984... but instead of individuals being controlled by a state, it is a state controlling the world and punishing other states for thought crimes...

    BTW the Naval F-35 will operate with the F-18 with the latter as a fighter CAP aircraft, while the F-35 will be the strike/intruder type aircraft.

    Britains options would be a naval fighter version of the Typhoon, or expensive upgrades of their F-35s to meet their needs.

    The irony is that if Russia begins work on their own STOBAL carriers that by 2027 or so they might have operational carriers with PAK FA fighters, or perhaps a naval light Mig 5th gen fighter. A Typhoon will be at a disadvantage, there is no European 5th gen fighter as such, just the F-35, which as I have been saying for some time is basically a stealthy Buccaneer.

    Note I like the Bucc, it is one of my favourite western aircraft, but it was never a multirole fighterbomber.

    AFAIK the Russian Navy will buy Mig-29Ks because they are in production and would be much cheaper than starting production for a couple of dozen Su-33KUB aircraft.

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    Re: Naval conflict brewing with Nato over Syria

    Post  Austin on Wed Jan 18, 2012 9:44 am

    Israeli-Syrian Air and SAM Strength Analysis

    http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/081125_is_syria_air_sam.pdf

    Thanks to Mindstorm for providing it

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    Re: Naval conflict brewing with Nato over Syria

    Post  GarryB on Wed Jan 18, 2012 12:49 pm

    Noticed a couple of mistakes... on slide 42 the AS-10 is SALH, not radio command or anti radar as shown, plus the AS-12 is several versions of the the Kh-25 and is anti radiation with a range of 40km, not a Kh-27 missile with a range of 60km.

    In fact the AS-10, and AS-7 and the AS-12 all refer to what later became the same missile... the Kh-25 in SALH, radio command, and anti radiation homing models.

    Interesting read however...

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    Re: Naval conflict brewing with Nato over Syria

    Post  runaway on Tue Jan 31, 2012 1:15 am

    So, the Kuznetsovs mission is over, and no high tensions were seen. But iam disappointed she didnt visite any other country than Syria.

    "Deployment of Russian Navy carrier group in the Mediterranean Sea is coming to its end. In the next few days Russian warships will replenish supplies and then set a course for the Atlantic via the Strait of Gibraltar.

    Ships of Russian carrier group entered the Mediterranean Sea on Dec 23, 2011. Through the deployment, pilots of deck-based aviation had an eventful training program. Twelve flight shifts were performed, which is over 130 sorties from the board of Northern Fleet (NF) aircraft-carrying cruiser Admiral Kuznetsov.

    Naval pilots practiced air engagement, interception, and aerobatics by heavy fighters Su-33.

    Aircrews of ship-based helicopters Ka-27 have carried out large training program as well. They maintained flights of airplanes and performed ASW tasks for self-defense purpose.

    One of the deployment's distinctive aspects was interaction among fleets. In some periods, warships of Northern, Baltic, and Black Sea fleets were accomplishing joint tasks.

    Crews of aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov, large ASW ship Admiral Chabanenko, frigates Yaroslav Mudry and Ladny have completed a number of combat training tasks under common concept. They were dozens of air defense and ASW exercises, hundreds of shipborne drills, antiaircraft missile and artillery firings.

    The deployment started on Dec 6, 2011 with departure of aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov, large ASW ship Admiral Chabanenko and supply vessels from NF main base Severomorsk. Throughout the long-range cruise, ships of the Russian Navy's carrier group have covered over 8,500 nautical miles. "

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    Re: Naval conflict brewing with Nato over Syria

    Post  GarryB on Tue Jan 31, 2012 8:12 am

    But iam disappointed she didnt visite any other country than Syria.


    Probably intentional to make a point.

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    Re: Naval conflict brewing with Nato over Syria

    Post  Austin on Thu Feb 02, 2012 8:02 pm

    Iran Can Produce Four Atom Bombs – Israeli Intelligence

    Iran has four tons of 20 percent enriched uranium, enough to make four crude nuclear bombs in a year, Israeli Military Intelligence head, Maj.Gen. Aviv Kochavi said on Thursday.

    "Iran is vigorously pursing military nuclear capabilities and today the intelligence community agrees with Israel on that," he said. "Iran has over four tons of enriched materials and nearly 100 kilograms of 20-percent enriched uranium – that's enough for four bombs. It [nuclear bomb] will be done… within one year,ā€ he added.

    Speaking at the Herzliya Conference in Tel Aviv, Kochavi also said that while Iran states its nuclear program is peaceful, Israel has ā€œconclusive evidence that they are after nuclear weapons."

    Kochavi said the Iranian nuclear program, which has begun enriching uranium to 20 percent from which it can be further enriched into fissile warhead material, stems from several motives, including regional hegemony and deterrence.

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    Re: Naval conflict brewing with Nato over Syria

    Post  GarryB on Fri Feb 03, 2012 8:49 am

    Excellent.

    Israel has conclusive proof that Iran is violating its NPT agreements... all they have to do is present this evidence to the UNSC and the matter can be dealt with.

    Of course this has to be actual conclusive proof and the Israelis actually have to present it... they can't just claim to have it like the US did with Iraqi WMDs.

    And of course if they don't present it then they might as well not have it and STFU.

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