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    Abkhazia and S.Ossetia vs Georgia Situation

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    Firebird

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    Re: Abkhazia and S.Ossetia vs Georgia Situation

    Post  Firebird on Fri Jun 27, 2014 4:46 pm

    Vann7 wrote:Interesting documentary about abkhazia..



    The country is truly a tourist place and amazing nature and lakes.  it will be a fantastic zone to develop and modern resorts and continuation of
    Sochi for Eco-Tourism.

    Russia (and places that are "almost Russia") have some fantastic tourist destinations.
    Things holding it back:-
    flights, visa hassles, question marks over customer service, fear of terrorism/perception that crime is bad, lack of marketing.
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    TheGeorgian

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    Re: Abkhazia and S.Ossetia vs Georgia Situation

    Post  TheGeorgian on Fri Jun 27, 2014 4:56 pm

    Firebird wrote:
    Russia (and places that are "almost Russia")

    that's neither Russia nor "almost Russia". I don't think Abkhazians like to hear that too.

    Firebird

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    Re: Abkhazia and S.Ossetia vs Georgia Situation

    Post  Firebird on Fri Jun 27, 2014 6:03 pm

    TheGeorgian wrote:
    Firebird wrote:
    Russia (and places that are "almost Russia")

    that's neither Russia nor "almost Russia". I don't think Abkhazians like to hear that too.

    But the text Vann had added said "continuation" of Sochi. And Sochi is ofcourse Russian.

    Many Abkhazians have Russian passports. And the (albeit ignorant) perception in the West is that
    its "sort of Russian" in that it was part of the USSR, has Ru citizens and broke away from Georgia.
    Infact, so called educated people in the EU refer to most ex Warsaw pact peoples as "Russian". Be that Slovak, Bulgarian, Ukrainian or whatever. Ofcourse they aren't, but it shows the psychology.

    I personally consider much of the Ukraine as "Russian" personally. Because when my own family started to leave it, it had been Russian Empire and then Ukrainian only in administrative terms, as it was part of the same country as Russia.

    There's also the issue of whether a republic in the Russian Fedn is actually Russian or not. (Just as its speculated that at some pt Abkh might join the Union State).
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    Hannibal Barca

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    Re: Abkhazia and S.Ossetia vs Georgia Situation

    Post  Hannibal Barca on Fri Jun 27, 2014 6:12 pm

    TheGeorgian wrote:
    Firebird wrote:
    Russia (and places that are "almost Russia")

    that's neither Russia nor "almost Russia". I don't think Abkhazians like to hear that too.

    But much more they are not European Unionists so since Georgia leadership decided to take sides.....
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    TheGeorgian

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    Re: Abkhazia and S.Ossetia vs Georgia Situation

    Post  TheGeorgian on Fri Jun 27, 2014 7:10 pm

    2014-06-27
    Hannibal Barca wrote:
    But much more they are not European Unionists so since Georgia leadership decided to take sides.....

    You make no sense. People in the entire region desire better living conditions. EU has absolutly nothing to do with us having fought wars against eachother. If the Abkhazians were accepted independent and offered to join EU, most of them people would hope for nothing better than that. Just because of the "better prospect".

    and also the decision was made by the Georgian people, not some goverment. If that decision was inspired by false promisses, illusions or whatsoever is a different question. But it's the people's choice and this government simply continues that policy. So far Russia has understood that not every step taken by Georgia that has just remotely something to do with EU process, like the AA, is a bad thing and it's good to see that the other side also shows reason. For us it is dangerous to be solely dependet on Russian market and it is less a threat to have a pro-EU Georgia with neutral or good relations with Kremlin than "loosing" Ukraine.
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    Viktor

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    Re: Abkhazia and S.Ossetia vs Georgia Situation

    Post  Viktor on Fri Jun 27, 2014 7:45 pm

    TheGeorgian wrote:You make no sense. People in the entire region desire better living conditions.

    You have to understand that EU has nothing in common with better living standards. Just the opposite.

    You have nothing to hope for.
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    Hannibal Barca

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    Re: Abkhazia and S.Ossetia vs Georgia Situation

    Post  Hannibal Barca on Fri Jun 27, 2014 8:04 pm

    TheGeorgian wrote:2014-06-27
    Hannibal Barca wrote:
    But much more they are not European Unionists so since Georgia leadership decided to take sides.....

    You make no sense. People in the entire region desire better living conditions. EU has absolutly nothing to do with us having fought wars against eachother. If the Abkhazians were accepted independent and offered to join EU, most of them people would hope for nothing better than that. Just because of the "better prospect".

    and also the decision was made by the Georgian people, not some goverment. If that decision was inspired by false promisses, illusions or whatsoever is a different question. But it's the people's choice and this government simply continues that policy. So far Russia has understood that not every step taken by Georgia that has just remotely something to do with EU process, like the AA, is a bad thing and it's good to see that the other side also shows reason. For us it is dangerous to be solely dependet on Russian market and it is less a threat to have a pro-EU Georgia with neutral or good relations with Kremlin than "loosing" Ukraine.


    OK so you play the West card. Accept the risks, the gains and the loses as a man and stop crying like a b-word !
    You can't have it both ways in life that's for sure.
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    TheGeorgian

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    Re: Abkhazia and S.Ossetia vs Georgia Situation

    Post  TheGeorgian on Fri Jun 27, 2014 8:17 pm

    Viktor wrote:
    TheGeorgian wrote:You make no sense. People in the entire region desire better living conditions.

    You have to understand that EU has nothing in common with better living standards. Just the opposite.

    You have nothing to hope for.

    You misunderstand me. I know what it would mean for Georgia. That's why I don't wish it to go futher but profitable relations with EU solely. The majority of the people however have hopes because when they see how people live like in Germany for isntance, Europe seems pretty sound.
    But it is wrong to say EU has nothing in common with better living conditions ! it certainly has. Like I know how much better life here is. At least on the matter of having more chances to make a man out of yourself then over there. I would have never been able to achieve the same in Tbilisi for instance. However it would be foolishly naive to assume EU membership would do the same to poor little Georgia.

    Hannibal Barca wrote:
    OK so you play the West card. Accept the risks, the gains and the loses as a man and stop crying like a b-word !
    You can't have it both ways in life that's for sure.

    .... leave the diplomacy to us  Wink
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    Hannibal Barca

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    Re: Abkhazia and S.Ossetia vs Georgia Situation

    Post  Hannibal Barca on Fri Jun 27, 2014 8:33 pm

    TheGeorgian wrote:
    Viktor wrote:
    TheGeorgian wrote:You make no sense. People in the entire region desire better living conditions.

    You have to understand that EU has nothing in common with better living standards. Just the opposite.

    You have nothing to hope for.

    You misunderstand me. I know what it would mean for Georgia. That's why I don't wish it to go futher but profitable relations with EU solely. The majority of the people however have hopes because when they see how people live like in Germany for isntance, Europe seems pretty sound.
    But it is wrong to say EU has nothing in common with better living conditions ! it certainly has. Like I know how much better life here is. At least on the matter of having more chances to make a man out of yourself then over there. I would have never been able to achieve the same in Tbilisi for instance. However it would be foolishly naive to assume EU membership would do the same to poor little Georgia.

    Hannibal Barca wrote:
    OK so you play the West card. Accept the risks, the gains and the loses as a man and stop crying like a b-word !
    You can't have it both ways in life that's for sure.

    .... leave the diplomacy to us  Wink



    What's wrong with you and your inability to understand simple realities?
    Russia says come with me (EAU) else I will destroy you
    EU says come with me else I will destroy you so you pick sides. That's all.
    Qatar is richest than Europe ever was why you don't go ally with them?
    Edit: Of course you can stay neutral and investment oriented but you are too short sighted and too corrupted and too backward to go this way
    And stop combine individual level with national it is worlds apart.
    And are you sure you don't combine PAST ACCOMPLISHMENTS? What you see in Europe is the past what you see in Asia is the future,
    combining London with Moscow is simply retarded.
    But anyway, I much like Georgia signing west puppetship since I much prefer conquest and slaughter over signs and treaties, probably it's just me,
    but this Putin guy brakes my fun for the moment anyway.


    Last edited by Hannibal Barca on Fri Jun 27, 2014 8:36 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    TR1

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    Re: Abkhazia and S.Ossetia vs Georgia Situation

    Post  TR1 on Fri Jun 27, 2014 8:35 pm

    TheGeorgian wrote:
    Firebird wrote:
    Russia (and places that are "almost Russia")

    that's neither Russia nor "almost Russia". I don't think Abkhazians like to hear that too.

    Seriously, that sounds ridiculous.

    Kavkaz is Kavkaz. Much of it is politically part of Russia, it is not "almost Russia".
    That is like saying, Europe is so pretty, and Russia is almost Europe.
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    TheGeorgian

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    Re: Abkhazia and S.Ossetia vs Georgia Situation

    Post  TheGeorgian on Fri Jun 27, 2014 10:09 pm

    Hannibal Barca wrote:
    EU says come with me else I will destroy you so you pick sides. That's all.

    What dimension you livin in .... ?


    Qatar is richest than Europe ever was why you don't go ally with them?

    yeah right. Why don't YOU go ally with them then if it's that easy. Because you know, it's not like it would be up to you to be allowed to ally with Qatar anyways ....

    Surprise. It is not.

    Edit: Of course you can stay neutral and investment oriented
    but you are too short sighted and too corrupted and too backward to go this way

    good edit there I-net commando. Tell us more about other peoples. Give me some amusement.

    what you see in Asia is the future

    Asia will go down faster than it rose up. Much harder then EU's downfall.

    combining London with Moscow is simply retarded.

    Retarded is the way this retarded species behaves right now.

    But anyway, I much like Georgia signing west puppetship
    since I much prefer conquest and slaughter over signs and treaties
    , probably it's just me,
    but this Putin guy brakes my fun for the moment anyway.

    You should be prevented to ever enter politics. Play more Total War games instead.
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    George1

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    Re: Abkhazia and S.Ossetia vs Georgia Situation

    Post  George1 on Thu Jul 31, 2014 3:02 pm

    Russia plans to suspend free trade agreement with Georgia

    MOSCOW, July 30, /ITAR-TASS/. Russia plans to suspend the 1994 agreement on free trade with Georgia which signed an association agreement with the European Union.

    Association agreements were signed at the end of July with Georgia and Moldova, and the economic part of the association agreement with Ukraine. Documents point to harmonisation of the three countries’ laws to align with European legislation and establishment of a free trade zone with the European Union.

    Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said with this in view that Russia could take measures to protect its economy as Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova are also in a zone of free trade with Russia.

    Earlier reports on Wednesday said the Ministry of Economic Development had drafted a government instruction to impose import duties on goods from Ukraine.

    Import duties are to be paid, on 130 items, in particular on beef, pork, cheeses, farmer cheese and chocolate, as well as pipes, clothes, cosmetics, construction materials, cars and other goods.

    The Russian Ministry of Economic Development has also drafted a government resolution that can unilaterally introduce import duties for Moldovan products.

    The measure may apply to such products as meat, fruit and vegetables, grain, sugar, beer, wine, and furniture - 19 in all.

    As in the case with Ukraine, the duties will be identical to those used for countries which enjoy the most favoured nation status in trade with Russia.

    At present, Moldovan products are imported to Russia duty free as both countries have signed a free trade agreement.

    Russia can adopt non-zero rates according to Annex 6 to the CIS free trade agreement. If imports from a country that is party to the treaty grow so that to harm the Russian market, Moscow may abolish preferences and impose a basic customs tariff.
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    George1

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    Re: Abkhazia and S.Ossetia vs Georgia Situation

    Post  George1 on Mon Nov 24, 2014 12:51 pm

    Putin, Abkhazian president to meet, sign Strategic Partnership Treaty

    The top-level talks will also touch upon urgent issues of bilateral relations and interaction in the regional security sphere

    MOSCOW, November 24. /TASS/. Russian President Vladimir Putin will on Monday meet with Abkhazian President Raul Khadzhimba, who is arriving in Russia on Putin’s invitation, in the southern Russian Black Sea resort of Sochi, the Kremlin reported.

    Russia-Abkhazia strategic partnership treaty to provide for coordinated foreign policy

    The two leaders are expected to sign the Russian-Abkhazian Treaty on Allied Relations and Strategic Partnership, the statement said.

    The top-level talks will also touch upon urgent issues of bilateral relations and interaction in the regional security sphere.

    On Sunday, Khadzhimba said the signing of the treaty will become “one more step in strengthening our relations with Russia.”

    Speaking about advantages provided by the treaty, the Abkhazian leader said: “We have the opportunity to ensure our own long-term security. And we certainly are assuming commitments to ensure the security of our ally - Russia. These are equal relations of two sovereign states.”

    Two days before, he also stressed that the treaty underlines Abkhazia’s sovereignty and independence.

    On November 20, the Russian government submitted to Putin a proposal to sign the Treaty on Allied Relations and Strategic Partnership with Abkhazia.

    The treaty in particular envisions that the Russian Federation “will in all possible ways contribute to strengthening the international ties of the Republic of Abkhazia, including expansion of the range of states that officially recognized it, and creation of conditions for the admission of the Republic of Abkhazia to international organizations and associations, including those established on the initiative and/or with assistance from the Russian Federation.”

    The document also says that should one of the sides come under aggression (armed attack) from any state or a group of states, “this will be considered as aggression [armed attack] also against the other State party.” In this case, the sides will grant each other “the necessary assistance, including military, and render support by available means to exercise the right to collective defense.”

    The treaty stipulates the establishment of a Joint Group of Forces of the Russian Federation’s Armed Forces and Abkhazia’s Armed Forces to repel aggression. It will be established not later than a year since the treaty’s entry into force.

    Russia is to provide funds to modernize Abkhazia’s army not later than three years since the treaty’s coming into force, including stage-by-stage unification of standards of military administration, logistical assistance, monetary allowances and social guarantees of servicemen. Abkhazia’s Armed Forces will also be trained and equipped with modern armaments.

    A few points of the document are devoted to guarding of the Abkhazian-Georgian border, whose engineering and technical fitting out is to be completed in two years. The sides are also expected to jointly guard the border. Besides, the treaty stipulates “absolute freedom of crossing of the Russian-Abkhazian state border with account for restrictions established for security reasons.”

    In the customs law sphere, Abkhazia will have to harmonize within three years from the treaty’s entry into forces its laws with acts of the Eurasian Economic Union of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Armenia, and in the part not regulated by the acts - with laws of the Russian Federation. Abkhazia will also have to bring its budget laws closer to Russian ones.

    Russia, in line with the document, will “adopt additional measures aimed to streamline procedures to acquire citizenship of the Russian Federation by nationals of the Republic of Abkhazia.”

    Russia will also co-finance the raising of wages in Abkhazia “for the key categories of employees of state institutions in the sphere of healthcare, education, science, culture, sports and social servicing of citizens to a level comparable with the wage level of relevant categories of workers in the Southern Federal District of the Russian Federation.”

    The same will apply to pensions of Abkhazian residents having Russian citizenship.

    The treaty is concluded for 10 years with the possibility to extend it for subsequent five-year periods.

    Russia and Georgia cut off diplomatic ties after Russia recognized as independent two Georgian breakaway republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The recognition followed Georgia's attack on South Ossetia that entailed Russia's peacemaking operation in August 2008.
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    George1

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    Re: Abkhazia and S.Ossetia vs Georgia Situation

    Post  George1 on Mon Feb 09, 2015 3:37 pm

    Georgian Prime Minister Says Tbilisi Ready to Negotiate With Russia

    whir

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    South Ossetia suspends easy rules of crossing border with Georgia for three days

    Post  whir on Tue May 05, 2015 3:37 pm

    ITAR-TASS wrote:South Ossetia suspends easy rules of crossing border with Georgia for three days
    World May 05, 12:49 UTC+3

    The measure is expected to enhance public security during celebrations on the occasion of the V-Day’s 70th anniversary, the press office of South Ossetia’s State Security Committee said

    TSKHINVAL, May 5. /TASS/. South Ossetia on May 8-10 will suspend the operation of checkpoints on the border with Georgia that let locals travel either way according to simpler rules, the press office of South Ossetia’s State Security Committee has said. The measure is expected to enhance public security during celebrations on the occasion of the V-Day’s 70th anniversary, the State Security Committee said, adding that the routine border crossing procedures would resume as of May 11. Continue reading
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    GarryB

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    Re: Abkhazia and S.Ossetia vs Georgia Situation

    Post  GarryB on Wed May 06, 2015 12:19 am

    When you read between the lines that says they think there might be trouble and they are taking precautions to lower the risk...

    I wonder if the participants of the Moscow parade will be parading with a full load of live ammo in case the Ukrainians try to pull something during the parade... Twisted Evil


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    George1

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    Re: Abkhazia and S.Ossetia vs Georgia Situation

    Post  George1 on Mon May 25, 2015 6:17 pm

    South Ossetia Closes Border With Georgia Over Security Concerns

    The South Caucasus breakaway republic of South Ossetia is shutting down its southern border with Georgia on Monday over a reported security threat, its security authority said.

    TSKHINVAL (Sputnik) – The republic’s State Security Committee said it had been alerted to a plot by right-wing forces in Georgia to cross into the republic ahead of Georgia’s Independence Day celebrations on Tuesday.

    "To avoid a destabilization on the republic’s border, it was decided to close border crossings from Georgia starting on May 25 and until the alert is lifted," the security agency said.

    South Ossetians will be allowed to cross into Georgia on special permits.

    The security agency’s spokesperson said they were preparing for possible provocations on the border by allies of Georgia’s former US-backed President Mikheil Saakashvili, who now resides outside of the country.

    May 26 marks the day when Georgia, a former part of the Russian Empire, adopted an Act of Independence after the 1917 Russian Revolution and proclaimed its sovereignty.

    South Ossetians, who broke away from Georgia in 2008, fear that the celebrations may reignite nationalist sentiment. The republic is considered by the government in Tbilisi to be an occupied territory.

    Read more: http://sputniknews.com/world/20150525/1022539969.html#ixzz3bARzqAns
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    George1

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    Re: Abkhazia and S.Ossetia vs Georgia Situation

    Post  George1 on Mon Jul 20, 2015 11:39 pm

    South Ossetia not to leave Georgia’s border provocations unanswered — representative

    The situation on the border started aggravating since mid-February when unidentified persons opened fire at the South Ossetian territory and wrenched out South Ossetia’s border marks

    TSKHINVAL, July 20 /TASS/. The Republic of South Ossetia will respond to any new Georgian provocations on the border with South Ossetia, Kokh Gogloity, the deputy envoy for the post-conflict settlement who heads the South Ossetian delegation at negotiations within the framework of Mechanisms of Prevention and Reaction to incidents, said on Monday.

    "In case of repeated provocations…along the state border with Georgia’s adjacent territory, the South Ossetian side will react accordingly if the incidents continue," he said.

    The situation on South Ossetia’s border with Georgia was a subject for discussion at an extraordinary session held within the framework of the Mechanisms for Prevention and Reaction to Incidents. It was held at the Ergnet populated locality in Georgia at the request of the South Ossetian side. It was attended by representatives of South Ossetia, Russia, Georgia, the European Union Monitoring Mission (EUMM) in Georgia and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).

    It was noted that the situation on the border started aggravating since mid-February when unidentified persons opened fire at the South Ossetian territory and wrenched out South Ossetia’s border marks. The South Ossetian side has reported the incidents to the international monitors and co-chairmen of international organizations at the Geneva discussions for Security in South Caucasus many times.

    According to Gagloity, the co-chairmen of international organizations said they were ready to work for the sake of preserving peace in the region adding that any provocations did not contribute to regional stability.

    Earlier, the Georgian side accused the South Ossetian border guards of violating Georgia’s state border and alleged attempts to move the border marks deeper into the Georgian territory.


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    flamming_python

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    Re: Abkhazia and S.Ossetia vs Georgia Situation

    Post  flamming_python on Tue Jul 21, 2015 12:15 am

    George1 wrote:South Ossetia not to leave Georgia’s border provocations unanswered — representative

    The situation on the border started aggravating since mid-February when unidentified persons opened fire at the South Ossetian territory and wrenched out South Ossetia’s border marks

    TSKHINVAL, July 20 /TASS/. The Republic of South Ossetia will respond to any new Georgian provocations on the border with South Ossetia, Kokh Gogloity, the deputy envoy for the post-conflict settlement who heads the South Ossetian delegation at negotiations within the framework of Mechanisms of Prevention and Reaction to incidents, said on Monday.

    "In case of repeated provocations…along the state border with Georgia’s adjacent territory, the South Ossetian side will react accordingly if the incidents continue," he said.

    The situation on South Ossetia’s border with Georgia was a subject for discussion at an extraordinary session held within the framework of the Mechanisms for Prevention and Reaction to Incidents. It was held at the Ergnet populated locality in Georgia at the request of the South Ossetian side. It was attended by representatives of South Ossetia, Russia, Georgia, the European Union Monitoring Mission (EUMM) in Georgia and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).

    It was noted that the situation on the border started aggravating since mid-February when unidentified persons opened fire at the South Ossetian territory and wrenched out South Ossetia’s border marks. The South Ossetian side has reported the incidents to the international monitors and co-chairmen of international organizations at the Geneva discussions for Security in South Caucasus many times.

    According to Gagloity, the co-chairmen of international organizations said they were ready to work for the sake of preserving peace in the region adding that any provocations did not contribute to regional stability.

    Earlier, the Georgian side accused the South Ossetian border guards of violating Georgia’s state border and alleged attempts to move the border marks deeper into the Georgian territory.

    If the Georgians try to move in for a Poroshenko strategy on South Ossetia than I dare say they will find themselves at a loss once the Russian arsenal in the Caucasus starts moving against them again.

    S. Ossetia has been recognized by Russia, is guarded by Russian forces, and to top it off - Russia has a defence treaty with it.
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    flamming_python

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    I agree about Georgia forming a confederacy with Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

    Post  flamming_python on Fri Aug 28, 2015 8:13 pm

    I agree about Georgia forming a confederacy with Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

    Speaking very bluntly, Russia does not need these micro-states, it doesn't know what to do with them. It's more or less an accident that this all occurred at all, Russia was content with the frozen conflict and not recognizing them at all; hoping to entice Georgia to a political solution that would give Russia leverage and influence in the new Georgia.

    Well then Saakashvilli happened, and the Georgian war, and so on.

    I am the first to admit that Russia's policies towards Georgia have been rather clubfooted over the years; throwing Georgian migrants out of Russia over political disagreements, increasing ties with Abkhazia/S.Ossetia as 'revenge' for the West recognizing Kosovo, and so on.

    At the same time though, the Georgian war was not its fault, and neither are these separatist conflicts in the first place. Saakashvilli and Gamsakhurdia respectively, did more than anyone else in their time, to catapult uneasy situations into full-scale wars.

    I think what Georgia needs to do now is start by publicly apologizing to S. Ossetia for the recent war, and try to move towards reconciliation with Abkhazia and S. Ossetia over the events of 1991-1993 too. Which were far from one-sided, I know, but if Georgia wants to be the 'bigger brother' to these peoples then it should do so by being the bigger man and taking the first step. To do this it has to open contacts with the unrecognized leaderships of these republics.

    I also do not think that Russia will try to prevent this. It didn't try to prevent this before. I don't think it will do so now; if anything it will look upon it as an opportunity to move Georgia away from NATO and secure its southern flank, Georgia should capitalize on this.

    Joining NATO at this time of increasing Russia-NATO tensions would be a huge mistake. Tensions would rack-up twice more over what they are now, and we would move back to where the Cold War was in the 50s; with huge arsenals of armour and cruise missiles near the borders, walls, constant airspace violations, mutual accusations, large-scale military exercises and possibly the occasional incident. Truth be told, it can turn out even worse than that this time 'round.
    Under such conditions Russia will move to immediately stop any attempts of Georgia (by now a NATO member and thus NATO territory) to negotiate or do anything with Abkhazia or S.Ossetia, they will be fortified with large amounts of Russian troops, Georgia will be fortified with NATO troops and that will be that - new Berlin wall.

    So there it is. It might not be fair or whatever else but that's international politics. Georgia has a good chance of getting what it wants, but it has to play it smart and manuever carefully. Joining NATO will be an immediate game-over as far as any unification with Abkhazia/S.Ossetia goes.
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    Re: Abkhazia and S.Ossetia vs Georgia Situation

    Post  flamming_python on Fri Aug 28, 2015 8:28 pm

    TheGeorgian wrote:When the Russian Federation is your physical enemy threatening your very existence and you're not very keen to be subjugated in the same manner you were for decades and centuries allready, no matter if as whole or merely politicaly and economicaly, you seek to approach the opposing force. It's a natural reaction because you fear for your life and want to survive, in one piece. I don't get why there isn't even some basic logical understanding to such consequences. Everything is like clouded, no room given for reasoning. We tried to approach Russia a million times with peaceful solutions. We literaly tried everything. What does Russia do ? pushes the fence a few kilometers further into uncotensted territory proper. Please people, that is not a solution. If the central highway is reached, it will mean war. Because no matter how weak we are, nobody will just sit idly and watch it's country being literaly split ahalf. We had our big mistake, called Saakashvili .... and no matter what the Russians did to provoke it or not, he started the August War. But this time around, there are not two parties actively provoking eachother. There is only ONE.

    Georgia does not present a threat to Russia, not in the next 5 years, not in the next 20 years. There won't ever be NATO bases in Georgia because NATO itself isn't that stupid. Georgia literaly has no prospect of joining NATO and will forever simply remain an allied nation if anything, even if we get the MAP in 2016, which is unlikely to happen anyway.

    Unfortunately all the information that filters down to us is pretty vague and the whole thing is opaque, it's very difficult to know who tried what.

    I am pretty sure that Saaka never tried to talk with the rebel leaderships, at least not in any way other than 'join us or else'

    Shevardnadze might have, he seemed like a very level-headed, pragmatic leader. But still, anything would have happened in secret, as officially, there are and were never any 'open' contacts with the Abkhazian and S.Ossetia leaderships, and this is a bad sign.

    I am not convinced that enough effort was put into this. I haven't heard of any trilateral meetings in a Georgia-S.Ossetia-Russia format for example; not in Saaka's time, not in Shevardnadze.
    I don't see why Russia would have blocked something like this, when we see for example that meetings in the format of Moldova-Pridnestrovie-Russia did take place in Moscow, and were in fact actively encouraged by Medvedev, albeit they didn't ultimately lead anywhere at the time.

    Medvedev in fact hinted at such a solution (confederation), in at least 1 interview after the war, when talking about options that Georgia could have aimed for in preference to war.

    As for after the war; I don't know what's been happening; I haven't seen any information about any Georgian efforts to establish dialogue with Abkhazia/S.Ossetia albeit it's logical that it might be trying to do so as now the military option is off the table for sure and this is the only chance left.
    Russia might very well be paranoid and so on now, but under the conditions where Georgia doesn't even have formal contacts with Russia right now, it's hard to talk about any sort of reconciliation process. Georgia should focus some effort on re-establishing ties, pouring some cold water on NATO for the time being, and showing that it is ready for dialogue with Moscow.
    I think once that's done, it will be possible for Georgia to move forward with contacting Abkhazia/S.Ossetia.

    SturmGuard

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    Re: Abkhazia and S.Ossetia vs Georgia Situation

    Post  SturmGuard on Fri Aug 28, 2015 8:51 pm

    Is the presence of Azerbaijani export pipelines near break-away reagions of S. Ossetia and Nagorno-Karabakh part of the geopolitic picture of the conflicts?

    Pardon my ignorance, but what went so wrong in the relations between Abkhaz, Ossetian and Georgian people to make the former side with Russia (why weren't they affected by narrative of Russian conqueror overlords that somehow spread elsewhere)?

    I always somehow felt bad for Georgians and Armenians, seeing their truly long presence in history since antiquity and subjugation to foreign powers during long periods.



    Yeah, the borders drawn by Bolsheviks in Caucasus are horrible, especially taking into account Ossetia, Armenia and Azerbaijan. Couldn't Russia have acted more decisively and force a peaceful resolution of those conflicts? I mean, wars and crisis in immediate neighbourhood are never a good thing in my opinion. Or was Russia itself in so much trouble and without power and capability to influence anything?

    Thank you for your responses.
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    ExBeobachter1987

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    Re: Abkhazia and S.Ossetia vs Georgia Situation

    Post  ExBeobachter1987 on Fri Aug 28, 2015 10:18 pm

    SturmGuard wrote:Pardon my ignorance, but what went so wrong in the relations between Abkhaz, Ossetian and Georgian people to make the former side with Russia (why weren't they affected by narrative of Russian conqueror overlords that somehow spread elsewhere)?

    I always somehow felt bad for Georgians and Armenians, seeing their truly long presence in history since antiquity and subjugation to foreign powers during long periods.

    Because Moscow was seen as (reliable) counterweight and protector against Tbilisi's centralism/Georgian nationalism.
    When Georgia left the Union, they wanted to stay.

    SturmGuard wrote:Yeah, the borders drawn by Bolsheviks in Caucasus are horrible, especially taking into account Ossetia, Armenia and Azerbaijan. Couldn't Russia have acted more decisively and force a peaceful resolution of those conflicts? I mean, wars and crisis in immediate neighbourhood are never a good thing in my opinion. Or  was Russia itself in so much trouble and without power and capability to influence anything?

    Thank you for your responses.

    Not after the Union fell and the South Caucasian republics became independent.
    Moscow did neither care enough nor was it willing to risk the alienation of one side.
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    higurashihougi

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    Re: Abkhazia and S.Ossetia vs Georgia Situation

    Post  higurashihougi on Sat Aug 29, 2015 5:15 am

    First of all, please allow me to use the word "Gruzia". In our country, people and the state media use the word Gruzia instead of Georgia, but that has no derogatory mean. It is just a habit, no more, no less. We respect your nation and the usage of Gruzia does not mean to insult anyone. It is just a habit.

    TheGeorgian wrote:When the Russian Federation is your physical enemy threatening your very existence and you're not very keen to be subjugated in the same manner you were for decades and centuries allready, no matter if as whole or merely politicaly and economicaly, you seek to approach the opposing force.

    Yes. But that doesn't mean become a slave or a banana republic for the Western powers.

    Our Vietnamese has a saying: invite a leopard to counter the tiger and the two beasts will make a mess in your house. That is exactly what is happening in your country.

    That's why although we seek friendship and commercial relationship from the West, we never seek military help from the West as a mean to counter China. That is stupid and does not benefit anyone in the region.

    TheGeorgian wrote:It's a natural reaction because you fear for your life and want to survive, in one piece. I don't get why there isn't even some basic logical understanding to such consequences.

    Who can threaten your survival ?

    This is the 21st century and it is common sense to respect the independence and sovereignty of a nation. The reason why Russia can intervene in Ossetia and Abkhazia is because the local people are pro-Russia and pro-separatism. If these people are pro-Tbilisi, Russia can't intervene.

    But I see a lot of countries who want to turn Gruzia into a banana republic. For example someone in NATO.

    TheGeorgian wrote:Everything is like clouded, no room given for reasoning. We tried to approach Russia a million times with peaceful solutions. We literaly tried everything. What does Russia do ? pushes the fence a few kilometers further into uncotensted territory proper. Please people, that is not a solution. If the central highway is reached, it will mean war. Because no matter how weak we are, nobody will just sit idly and watch it's country being literaly split ahalf. We had our big mistake, called Saakashvili .... and no matter what the Russians did to provoke it or not, he started the August War. But this time around, there are not two parties actively provoking eachother. There is only ONE.

    Now you realize why Gruzia suffered a tragedy named Ossetia War ? Because Suckasshitvili stupidly waged a war with no hope of winning.

    Where was NATO when Gruzia needed it most ? Did NATO provided any help ? Or NATO just considered Gruzia as a mere pawn in the chessboard ?

    Lessons in Gruzia is one of the reasons why none of our Vietnamese want a war with China even in the wildest dream.

    TheGeorgian wrote:Georgia does not present a threat to Russia, not in the next 5 years, not in the next 20 years. There won't ever be NATO bases in Georgia because NATO itself isn't that stupid. Georgia literaly has no prospect of joining NATO and will forever simply remain an allied nation if anything, even if we get the MAP in 2016, which is unlikely to happen anyway.

    Gruzia will never pose a threat against Russia as long as they don't let the West sticks its nose into Gruzian affairs and turn Gruzia into a cannon fodder for the West.

    Please remember if Tbilisi considers Russia as a tiger, than NATO is a leopard. Tiger and Leopard are predators.

    But I bet after the tragedy in 2008 probably the Gruzian people has already realized it.
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    TheGeorgian

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    Re: Abkhazia and S.Ossetia vs Georgia Situation

    Post  TheGeorgian on Sat Aug 29, 2015 12:30 pm

    flamming_python wrote:I agree about Georgia forming a confederacy with Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

    Speaking very bluntly, Russia does not need these micro-states, it doesn't know what to do with them. It's more or less an accident that this all occurred at all, Russia was content with the frozen conflict and not recognizing them at all; hoping to entice Georgia to a political solution that would give Russia leverage and influence in the new Georgia.

    That is exactly why it wouldn't be so hard to restore unity as soon as Russia ceases it's sesession policy towards us and looses the tight control / influence on both regions. It just requires sitting down on a table. Nothing else. If that allready shows success in a strained situation, it does wonders in a peaceful environment.

    I am the first to admit that Russia's policies towards Georgia have been rather clubfooted over the years; throwing Georgian migrants out of Russia over political disagreements, increasing ties with Abkhazia/S.Ossetia as 'revenge' for the West recognizing Kosovo, and so on.

    just to name a few. The culmination is the current fence / "border" policy, which is also going for years now.

    At the same time though, the Georgian war was not its fault, and neither are these separatist conflicts in the first place. Saakashvilli and Gamsakhurdia respectively, did more than anyone else in their time, to catapult uneasy situations into full-scale wars.

    Which is why something like "national movements" should be legaly banned in any form of governing instances by decree. People have had enough. The only reason why Saakashvili's people are still in parliament, is because the US threatens us with sanctions if we don't "live up to democracy" and don't stop "political persecution" ( justice system working )

    I think what Georgia needs to do now is start by publicly apologizing to S. Ossetia for the recent war, and try to move towards reconciliation with Abkhazia and S. Ossetia over the events of 1991-1993 too. Which were far from one-sided, I know, but if Georgia wants to be the 'bigger brother' to these peoples then it should do so by being the bigger man and taking the first step. To do this it has to open contacts with the unrecognized leaderships of these republics.

    It needs more than that and I personaly would choose a time when we do reflect prospect. Besides tjhat, in the current circumstances Russia is not allowing it anyway. We tried again to restore at least some low level of communication and diplomacy in 2012-2013 but it is quite apparent to me that the governing administrations in both regions are simply not the respective people who should be representing the actual population of said regiosn. I think that's a fact. So basicaly we confront Russia again, instead of Abkhazia or South Ossetia.

    I also do not think that Russia will try to prevent this. It didn't try to prevent this before. I don't think it will do so now; if anything it will look upon it as an opportunity to move Georgia away from NATO and secure its southern flank, Georgia should capitalize on this.

    Russia is quite literaly physicaly preventing it. See border / fence policy.  

    Joining NATO at this time of increasing Russia-NATO tensions would be a huge mistake.

    Something that won't happen in near future, far future .... if at all to begin with. We are just "close allies", not even have the MAP yet ....

    Tensions would rack-up twice more over what they are now, and we would move back to where the Cold War was in the 50s; with huge arsenals of armour and cruise missiles near the borders, walls, constant airspace violations, mutual accusations, large-scale military exercises and possibly the occasional incident. Truth be told, it can turn out even worse than that this time 'round.
    Under such conditions Russia will move to immediately stop any attempts of Georgia (by now a NATO member and thus NATO territory) to negotiate or do anything with Abkhazia or S.Ossetia, they will be fortified with large amounts of Russian troops, Georgia will be fortified with NATO troops and that will be that - new Berlin wall.

    If NATO truly wanted and was willing to go that far, it would have allready done years before Saakashvili came to power. Even after 2008 and recent events, NATO is on the lowest level of relationship with Georgia as the alliance can be. What has been done formaly since 2003 ? tell me. Absolutly nothing has changed formaly. All the sweet and prospective talk and promises. It's just words. Russia is literaly overreacting to mere words. When I talk to people, they still believe in the rubbish which was floating around the 2008 conflict, that Russia was basicaly fighting NATO / Georgia equipped with modern NATO weapons etc .... it's just so silly ....  Speaking of weapons ...... and what exactly is Russia's objection ? we've been denied the most basic defensive assets a nation must have to defend it's airspace, land and sea, which we would have paid from our own wallet as far as we can. Only now, we are finaly allowed to merely trade with NATO nations to be able to buy weapons from them. We have nations on this planet that disagree and even fight against all the principles of the West / NATO / EU / US and yet receive tons of armament every month from countries like Germany. The Georgian armed forces have began the process of modernisation not earlier than 2011 .... 2011. Countries such as Armenia and Azerbaijan are far better armed and equipped to defend themselves than we are within the next 5 years minimum. That is literaly all. What Nato, Where Nato. Seriously. Russias overreaction to everything is the very reason why Georgia tries to join NATO out of frustration, not because it likes to piss off it's giant neighbour for shits and giggles. All the time we talk and lecture on how Georgia should behave and find an approach. How about Russia putting some efforts as well. Then convince us that you're the better alternative to NATO. How about that ?

    So there it is. It might not be fair or whatever else but that's international politics. Georgia has a good chance of getting what it wants, but it has to play it smart and manuever carefully. Joining NATO will be an immediate game-over as far as any unification with Abkhazia/S.Ossetia goes.

    I believe that as well, which is why I quite frankly am against joining NATO, just to give one reason of several. I personaly think all nations of the entire region should come to peaceful terms with eachother and there should be a regional defence coalition which would neither be pro-West nor pro-East, but still a huge buffer and independent force between Russia and NATO / Turkey. Or another solution would be Russia as big protecting force of that coalition. However that region or those nations have to be allowed self-determination. Policy, economy etc without any form of active inteference and involvment neither intimidation from any side. Just give and receive in a fair manner. Only control-fanatics would object such an idea.

    I am pretty sure that Saaka never tried to talk with the rebel leaderships, at least not in any way other than 'join us or else'

    There were efforts from ministers like Alasania who were in Abkhazia several times and had positive dialogue with the Abkhazian leadership but then again, those were undermined constantly by the political developments between Georgia and Russia.

    Shevardnadze might have, he seemed like a very level-headed, pragmatic leader. But still, anything would have happened in secret, as officially, there are and were never any 'open' contacts with the Abkhazian and S.Ossetia leaderships, and this is a bad sign.

    I am not convinced that enough effort was put into this. I haven't heard of any trilateral meetings in a Georgia-S.Ossetia-Russia format for example; not in Saaka's time, not in Shevardnadze.
    I don't see why Russia would have blocked something like this, when we see for example that meetings in the format of Moldova-Pridnestrovie-Russia did take place in Moscow, and were in fact actively encouraged by Medvedev, albeit they didn't ultimately lead anywhere at the time.

    Well that isn't quite true. There were meeting. Between Georgia-Abkhazia and Georgia-South Ossetia, but then again Russia would be the high father to dictate the general policy of both regions and to Georgia's disatisfaction the results wouldn't be any progressive while initialy there seemed to be very prospective plans. See Sochi Agreement from 2003. True, Saakashvili's arrival was a bummer, but you gotta keep your promises.

    Medvedev in fact hinted at such a solution (confederation), in at least 1 interview after the war, when talking about options that Georgia could have aimed for in preference to war.

    but as of when ? .... in the 90s ? just before 2008 ? suggesting such options is allways convenient, especialy from the side that is undermining such efforts in first place.

    As for after the war; I don't know what's been happening; I haven't seen any information about any Georgian efforts to establish dialogue with Abkhazia/S.Ossetia albeit it's logical that it might be trying to do so as now the military option is off the table for sure and this is the only chance left.
    Russia might very well be paranoid and so on now, but under the conditions where Georgia doesn't even have formal contacts with Russia right now, it's hard to talk about any sort of reconciliation process. Georgia should focus some effort on re-establishing ties, pouring some cold water on NATO for the time being, and showing that it is ready for dialogue with Moscow.
    I think once that's done, it will be possible for Georgia to move forward with contacting Abkhazia/S.Ossetia.

    I can't see into their doings, but fact is several things have improved, like lifting the ban on Georgian water, wine etc and also commercial flights. So dialogue seems to be going in a progressive direction. But I probably have to rephrase that. Because at the same time we got the fence / border policy. That borderisation and absorbing of more and more uncontested lands to the point where the main highway is almost reached, so that is happening and everything has it's limit you know even for a nation that can't properly defend itself. But at least it's been constantly monitored this time and the entire world has it's eyes on it.


    Last edited by TheGeorgian on Sat Aug 29, 2015 10:05 pm; edited 1 time in total

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