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    Russian population

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    Project Canada
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    Re: Russian population

    Post  Project Canada on Mon Mar 13, 2017 6:58 am


    I have long suspected that NATO intelligence services (CIA etc) has been running covert psyops operations inside Russia with the aim to sabotage the country in any way possible, and I believe one of these activities is to suppress population growth by means of aiding the spread of disease (HIV, Tuberculosis etc), promoting culture of having no families and encouragement of suicide. It is a good development that Putin is addressing some of these issues and hopefully the campaign to protect Russia's population growth becomes successful.


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    Kimppis
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    Re: Russian population

    Post  Kimppis on Sat Mar 18, 2017 11:47 pm

    Anatoly Karlin: Russia Demographic Data for 2016 Released
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    Kimppis
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    Re: Russian population

    Post  Kimppis on Tue May 09, 2017 2:59 pm

    Not so good news:

    Anatoly Karlin: Russia's Fertility Falls of a Cliff

    It is pointless to make sweeping conclusions based on demographic data from the past one or two months.

    That said, the three month moving average has been down relative to the same period in the previous year since the middle of 2016, and as of this year, has widened to 10%, an unprecedented figure in the past decade.

    Now to be sure, birth rates should – all else equal – be falling, because the diminished generation of the 1990s is now moving into its peak childbearing years. It shouldn’t be falling by 10% in any one year, however. If this new trend continues, Russia’s TFR for 2017 should fall to about 1.65 children per woman from the 1.76 in 2016.

    OTOH mortality continued improving, falling by 1% in the first three months of 2017 relative to same period last year, which translates into a correspondingly greater improvement in life expectancy because of Russia’s ageing population (i.e. for the same reason that Russia’s fertility rate would increase if the number of births was to stay the same).

    So I don’t want to imply all is doom and gloom after having covered Russia’s demographic turnaround for almost a decade.

    However, it does perhaps warrant a reassessment of the weight we attach to different demographic projections.

    For instance, the “Medium” scenario in my Russian demographic model – also the one which I long thought likeliest – involves the assumption that the TFR would converge to about 1.75 (where it has generally been since 2012), with steady convergence in life expectancy to developed world levels, and annual (official) immigrant inflows of 300,000. In this scenario, Russia’s population would actually increase to about 150 million in 2025 and 158 million by 2050 (that’s including Crimea, aka +2 million).

    However, if the recent fertility decline is not a one-year blip, and were to instead to continue falling to about 1.50, then Russia’s population would stagnate (this is from before Crimea):

    "Low (TFR=1.5 from 2010)Population growth starts from 2011, going from 142mn to 143mn by 2023. Then it falls slowly to 138mn by 2050. The birth rate peaks at 12.5 in 2013, falls sharply to 7.8 by 2032, and then remains in the 8-9 range. The death rate troughs at 11.4 in 2032, then rises to 12.9 by 2050. Positive natural increase is never attained."

    Not really the demographic apocalypse long promised by the Western media either, but a disappointing outcome nonetheless.

    It’s also possible that this will further encourage the kremlins to intensify immigration from Central Asia.

    However, according to one comment:

    A rather sharp decrease in the number of births. Dynamics of mortality in this case is the same as in previous years. None of the factors separately (demographic, economic, social) could not give such a result. Since last year greatly decreased the number of marriages (-15%), and this year on the contrary there is a large increase (+10%), apparently it was one of the strongest factors that influenced on the decrease in the number of births. Many couples delayed marriage (for various reasons – such as leap year, problems in the economy) and now of course no children are born, which would have been conceived after the wedding .

    On the other hand, recent years have seen a speeding up of the second birth, to receive maternity capital, which could get up to 31 December 2016. The programme is being extended, but many women gave birth to additional children much in advance of the final date 2-3 years ago. And now they are “not enough” in the number of mothers, that is as if they have given birth faster than they should have.

    It has generally been expected, but nobody expected such a strong decline. If at least part of these thoughts is correct, it still the 2nd half of 2017 to identify. Need to wait 9 months at least.
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    miketheterrible
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    Re: Russian population

    Post  miketheterrible on Wed May 10, 2017 6:26 am

    Checking monthly is a joke.  It is an annual thing to look at.  In general, Russia's population has been growing for the last couple of years. Now added to the statistics is Crimea as well, something that wasn't possible 3 - 4 years ago.
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    GarryB
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    Re: Russian population

    Post  GarryB on Fri May 12, 2017 11:00 am

    There are always spikes and troughs in statistics... individual results are not important or relevant... it is trends that show what is happening and short term changes can't be taken to show future trends.

    It is like the old story about the cell that splits every second... start with one in a petre dish and in a years time you will have more bacteria than the whole world could even hold... of course the reproduction rate is not mathematical... when the conditions change or the food or the space runs out the rate changes... the bacteria stop dividing when they get to the edge of the dish and no matter how long you leave it they wont approach the mass of the earth any time.

    Not really the demographic apocalypse long promised by the Western media either, but a disappointing outcome nonetheless.

    An outcome that has not happened yet is no outcome at all.


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