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    PapaDragon
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    Re: Russian population

    Post  PapaDragon on Thu Nov 03, 2016 1:28 am


    Better start using condoms already study

    Project Canada
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    Re: Russian population

    Post  Project Canada on Thu Nov 03, 2016 2:26 am

    PapaDragon wrote:
    Better start using condoms already study

    Im kinda hoping its just media exaggeration, otherwise its a really serious problem that the Russian gov needs to address immediately

    kvs
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    Re: Russian population

    Post  kvs on Thu Nov 03, 2016 3:07 am

    Project Canada wrote:
    PapaDragon wrote:
    Better start using condoms already study

    Im kinda hoping its just media exaggeration, otherwise its a really serious  problem that the Russian gov needs to address  immediately  

    Russia is still infested with 5th column slime inside the government system. The official organization that is supposed to track AIDS in Russia
    has been a major source of hysterical misinformation. The same director clown makes ludicrous predictions about infection rates and then
    when they don't pan out, just repeats them again (i.e. keeps on kicking the can down the road).

    There are some things to consider here. HIV spread is a long term process. So the mess of the 1990s is bearing its fruit today and will do so
    in the future. There is pretty much nothing the current government can do about other than round up every infected individual and qurantine them
    for life. That ain't gonna happen.

    I find the numbers cited to be highly dubious. Unless there was some deliberate sabotage: spreading HIV through the blood supply used by
    hospitals. I would not be surprised if that was the case.

    TheArmenian
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    Re: Russian population

    Post  TheArmenian on Thu Nov 03, 2016 7:35 am

    Read the title again:

    "Every 50th resident of Ural City"

    So, this is only about one city out of the whole of Russia.

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    Re: Russian population

    Post  Skandalwitwe on Thu Nov 03, 2016 3:53 pm

    Situation with spread of HIV is serious (esp. in some oblasts of Ural and Siberian Federal Districts) but an apocalypse won't happen. Russia is executing a very high number  of HIV tests every year (too lazy to reserch now but 20+ million for sure). Whole groups like preg women, members of security services and many more are tested vigorously.

    More on demographics (incl. HIV/AIDS issue) this now inactive blog:

    http://akarlin.com/category/demographics/

    Here the last post from Nov 2014 which sums up every topic on Russia's demographics:

    http://akarlin.com/2014/11/normalization-of-russias-demographics/

    And here a revealing image (also 2 years old, numbers improved since then even further) on 'unnatural' causes of death highly connected to the desaster of the late Gorbachev/whole Yeltsin era:

    Edit: numbers refer to 100K persons per year


    Project Canada
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    Re: Russian population

    Post  Project Canada on Thu Nov 03, 2016 9:26 pm




    Russia Built 3 Churches Per Day, 1000 Per Year For 28 Years - A World Record



    “More than that, I know no other precedent of this kind anywhere throughout the history of mankind...."

    Noting that today many say that modern society lives in the post-Christian era, (Metropolitan Hillarion) said that it is not felt in Russia
    .

    eligious faith in Russia never grew more intensively than in the past three decades, believes Metropolitan Hilarion of Volokolamsk.

    The head of the Department of External Church Relations (DECR) spoke about religious faith in Russia, and its history and revival in recent decades at a meeting with a group of professors and 250 students from Italy on October 11, 2016, reports the DECR’s website.

    “The epoch which we call ‘the second Baptism of Russia’ begun in our Church in 1988. The mass baptism of our population started in Russia in the late ‘80s and early ‘90s,” Metropolitan Hilarion said while relating the history of Orthodoxy in Russia to the Italian guests.

    “Today we have 35,000 churches. That means that we have opened 29,000 churches over twenty-eight years, opening more than 1,000 churches per year or three per day… Earlier we had three theological seminaries or academies, and today there are over fifty,” the metropolitan stressed.

    In Metropolitan Hilarion’s view, Russian history has “never witnessed such growth in religious faith as we have seen in the past twenty-eight years.”

    “More than that, I know no other precedent of this kind anywhere throughout the history of mankind. We are aware that the epoch of St. Constantine the Great in the fourth century was a time when churches were built everywhere and mass baptisms took place. But there is no statistics for that period, while we do have statistics for the epoch we live in,” he added.

    Noting that today many say that modern society lives in the post-Christian era, the representative of the Russian Orthodox Church said that it is not felt in Russia.

    “With our own eyes we have seen the power of Christianity which enables us to open three churches per day today. We have witnessed how Christianity transforms human lives, to what extent Christ and His teaching are still important nowadays,” Metropolitan Hilarion said in conclusion.

    Professors and students of schools under the Jesuit Order in Rome, Milan, Naples, Turin and Palermo took part in the meeting with the Chairman of the Department for External Church Relations.

    http://russia-insider.com/en/past-twenty-eight-years-show-greatest-growth-faith-russia-metropolitan-hilarion/ri17339


    I think this is a positive development, despite what the haters say, promoting Russian Orthodox church beliefs among Russians will have a great contribution to nation building and spiritual unity of the country, also they need to aggressively promote this brand of Christianity among its muslim population and convert them as well as abroad in Europe, Central Asia, East Asia and elsewhere in the globe.

    PapaDragon
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    Re: Russian population

    Post  PapaDragon on Thu Nov 03, 2016 10:13 pm


    OK I posted this article before in order to put this AIDS doom thing to bed (no pun intended) but since people have short memory here it goes again:


    Russia Still Doesn't Have an AIDS Apocalypse

    http://russia-insider.com/en/russia-still-doesnt-have-aids-apocalypse/ri7379

    Countrary to what western media believes and would have you believe prevalence of HIV in Russia is:

    Low
    Falling
    and largely limited to injecting drug users

    .............................

    So can we move on (again) please?

    PapaDragon
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    Re: Russian population

    Post  PapaDragon on Thu Nov 03, 2016 10:25 pm

    [quote="Project Canada"]


    Russia Built 3 Churches Per Day, 1000 Per Year For 28 Years - A World Record


    ........................................

    http://russia-insider.com/en/past-twenty-eight-years-show-greatest-growth-faith-russia-metropolitan-hilarion/ri17339

    I think this is a positive development, despite what the haters say, promoting Russian Orthodox church beliefs among Russians will have a great contribution to nation building and spiritual  unity of the country, also they need to aggressively  promote this brand of Christianity among its muslim population and convert them as well as abroad in Europe, Central Asia, East Asia and elsewhere in the globe.

    It is very positive development and not just from religious standpoint.

    A lot of people outside don't know this but in Orthodox Christianity churches are not just buildings where you pray. They are repositories of art.
    You can build a church structure in less than a year but it will not be considered finished until artwork is complete and sometimes it can take a decades especially if you want it done right. Only once all icons are installed and frescoes are paintaed can it truly be consoider finished.

    Take Temple of St. Sava in Belgrade for example. Structure itself is complete. But it will be decades (some say maybe a whole century) until all artwork is done. That is why this news is important . It's not just religion, it is about art, culture and whole civilization.

    And in Russia it is not limited to just Christianity. Look at mosques in Kazan or big one in Moscow and compare them to ones in Middle East, Saudi Arabia especially.
    Like comparing Louvre Museum with cement warehouse.

    kvs
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    Re: Russian population

    Post  kvs on Thu Nov 03, 2016 11:45 pm

    It is great to see so many abandoned, converted and semi-demolished churches being restored in Russia. I love seeing the criminal legacy of butchers
    being eradicated. That is poetic justice.

    http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1199983


    Firebird
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    Re: Russian population

    Post  Firebird on Fri Nov 04, 2016 10:01 am

    PapaDragon wrote:
    Project Canada wrote:


    Russia Built 3 Churches Per Day, 1000 Per Year For 28 Years - A World Record


    ........................................

    http://russia-insider.com/en/past-twenty-eight-years-show-greatest-growth-faith-russia-metropolitan-hilarion/ri17339

    I think this is a positive development, despite what the haters say, promoting Russian Orthodox church beliefs among Russians will have a great contribution to nation building and spiritual  unity of the country, also they need to aggressively  promote this brand of Christianity among its muslim population and convert them as well as abroad in Europe, Central Asia, East Asia and elsewhere in the globe.

    It is very positive development and not just from religious standpoint.

    A lot of people outside don't know this but in Orthodox Christianity churches are not just buildings where you pray. They are repositories of art.
    You can build a church structure in less than a year but it will not be considered finished until artwork is complete and sometimes it can take a decades especially if you want it done right. Only once all icons are installed and frescoes are paintaed can it truly be consoider finished.

    Take Temple of St. Sava in Belgrade for example. Structure itself is complete. But it will be decades (some say maybe a whole century) until all artwork is done. That is why this news is important . It's not just religion, it is about art, culture and whole civilization.

    And in Russia it is not limited to just Christianity. Look at mosques in Kazan or big one in Moscow and compare them to ones in Middle East, Saudi Arabia especially.
    Like comparing Louvre Museum with cement warehouse.    

    Its an interesting development, for numerous reasons.
    Russia can set itself up as an alternative European leader. Because the West will likely be dominated by Muslim radicals mixed with homo and transsexual extremists in future years. Normal people in the West of Europe will then gravitate towards Russian values. Its even happening already with young EU and American males moving to E Europe inc Russia (and Lat America, and Asia) because they are sick to death of feminism, Islam and gender blurring being promoted.

    I think the Church needs to set itself up as a more than a Sunday service organisaion. A focus for communites in towns and cities. Cultural groups, youth and children's groups, sports, charitable work etc.

    Finally, I wonder if there might be any plans to build a mega cathedral anywhere, say in Moscow. Or maybe a neo modern one in Vladivostock - which is very likely to become Russia's 3rd great "capital" in coming years.
    In a way, it would mark the Eastern border of Christendom. (Even tho Japan, China, Korea etc also have Christians).

    Alternatively, perhaps a mega cathedral could be built next to RUssia's new Parliament building planned to be built to the West of the city centre. It would reinforce the link between church and state, in the way St Basils does with the Kremlin.

    So will say "but these are just buildngs". Well buildings alone are not enough. But I think they can be a starting point for numerous good things.

    Project Canada
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    Re: Russian population

    Post  Project Canada on Thu Nov 24, 2016 7:15 pm


    Russia must protect its population now, before it is too late


    The population of Russia may shrink considerably in the foreseeable future if the state does not take quick and drastic measures for its protection. The improvement of the demographic situation in Russia depends on the government policy, experts believe.
    Generally speaking, the demographic problem is a problem not only for Russia, but for many other European countries, even Asian ones, such as Japan, for instance. Yet, this issue has its own peculiarities in Russia - they are mostly associated with the disaster of the 1990s.

    "Since the 1990s, most Russian families have preferred to have only one child. Presently, two-thirds of Russian families have one child and only six percent have three or more children. One needs to increase this number to about 50 percent. If we still have the trend for one child in a family, the Russian population will shrink twice in 30 years," the head of the Department for Sociology of Family and Demography at the Moscow State University, Professor Anatoly Antonov said, the Rossiyskaya Gazeta wrote.


    The professor also pointed out the trend towards an increase in the number of childless families and the growing stratification between the rich and the poor.
    Chairman of the regional public organization Child's Right, Boris Altshuler, largely agrees with the above-mentioned assessment.

    The human rights activist referred to Vladimir Putin's article about social issues that was published before the presidential election in 2012. In the article, Putin spoke about demographic problems as well.

    "He wrote there in black and white that if we do not take urgent measures in this regard, then by the middle of the XXI century Russia will lose 50 million people. This is iron logic which is entirely and absolutely correct," said Boris Altshuler.

    "After the demographic collapse of the 1990s, the number of schoolchildren in Russia has reduced twice. In the mid-2000s, there were schoolchildren who were born during the Soviet era. In the RSFSR, the population was growing by 2 million people a year. During the 1990s, we had one million babies born a year. Then came Putin's reforms to stimulate the birth rate in the country, the maternity capital was introduced, and the general economic situation stabilized. In fact, the birth rate exceeded the death rate at some point, but it did not reach the Soviet level of 1.5-1.7 million. Nowadays, the girls, who were born during the 1990s, enter their childbearing age. Therefore, we are entering the period, when the number of mothers will be twice as less than it was during the 1990s," the expert told Pravda.Ru.

    Boris Altshuler also said that there are other problems, such as, for example, assistance to large families. "There are three key issues that ensure the survival and well-being of families with many children. First and foremost, it is the issue of housing. Secondly, parents need to be able to feed their children. Thirdly, it is healthcare. There are huge problems in all these three issues in Russia nationwide," the human right activist said pointing out the need for the state to pay more attention to such issues.

    According to the Head of the Sector for Demography, Migration and Ethno-Religious Problems of the Russian Institute of Strategic Research under the President of the Russian Federation, Igor Beloborodov, the problem of the dangerously low birth rate has existed in Russia for a long time.

    "During the 1960s, the birth rate dropped below the population reproduction level, but the fact had been ignored and not paid attention to for a very long time. Yet, there are always loose ends from any weave. In 1992, the open phase of depopulation started in the country. It happened without any wars, famine or repression. It happened due to the free choice and the free will of Russian people, who started refusing from having two or more children. Two children per family will not save the Russian population today. One needs three-child and larger families to improve our demography," said Igor Beloborodov in an interview with Pravda.Ru.

    "With the current birth rate level, the population is reduced by half during 70-80 years. This is a very short historic period. We understand that the age structure is not perfect in the country either. Therefore, the Russian population may shrink twice even faster," the expert added.

    According to Igor Beloborodov, one needs to meet several requirements to overcome the current trend.

    "First and foremost, one needs to revise attitude towards human life. One needs to put an end to abortions. I am not saying we should prohibit them. We need to constitutionally document the value, sanctity and protection of human life from the moment of conception. Of course, mass media should be involved in the powerful propaganda of healthy family lifestyle. A full strong large family with three children minimum should be the gold standard," said the expert.

    "Families with children should enjoy all sorts of privileges, preferences - everything, including awards and rewards. We need to change our education system to raise family-oriented individuals. Students should be taught at school how to become a good parent, how to maintain good relationships with their spouses and how to raise worthy members of our society. If we can do it in several years, the situation will start improving," said Igor Beloborodov.

    It will take many years and even decades to improve the situation, but if Russia does not start acting now, it will be too late.


    http://www.pravdareport.com/russia/economics/24-11-2016/136257-russian_population-0/#sthash.XDSppMqa.dpuf

    miketheterrible
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    Re: Russian population

    Post  miketheterrible on Thu Nov 24, 2016 9:30 pm

    And yet, Russia's demographics have been increasing in the last couple of years. So I don't know what this fear stems from. Especially since Russia's population was small, even back prior to Soviet Union.

    Over populating isn't a solution to problems either.

    Project Canada
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    Re: Russian population

    Post  Project Canada on Fri Nov 25, 2016 4:55 am

    miketheterrible wrote:

    Over populating isn't a solution to problems either.


    Yeah but before worrying about over population i think Russia must first put more efforts to encourage ethnic Russian families to have at least 5 or more kids.

    USA wouldn't be in its position today as Superpower if its got a population size like Canada


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    Re: Russian population

    Post  Skandalwitwe on Fri Nov 25, 2016 9:56 am

    ^^^This article is so breathtaking wrong on so many levels I don't know where to start. Those incompetent scum 5th columnists posing as 'demographers' are outright liying, fabricating numbers as usual and reveal themselves as utter idiots.

    Some well-substantiated facts of the whooping demographic recovery in Russia:
    1.) Total Fertility Rate rose from a minimum in 1999 1,16 to 1,78 in 2015 0 = +53%
    2.) Crude Birth Rate (per 1.000) rose from 8,3 to 13,3 in 2012 in is on that level since then
    3.) in absolute numbers: 1215k births in 1999 to 1943k in 2014 (=+60%!)

    4.) crude death rate (per 1.000) fell from the max in 2003 (16,4) to 13,0 in 2015 and will fall further in 2016 considering the substantial decline in deaths in the first 9 months
    5.) in absolute numbers deaths fell from 2366k in 2003 to 1906k in 2015 = -20% (latter number even with Crimea/Sevastopol). Death will fall well below the 1,9 million mark this year.
    6.) Life expectancy rose from 64,8 years in 2003 within 12 short years to 71,4 in 2015. Will take another good jump at over 72 years this year. For males it's even more impressive: from 58,5 to 65,9.
    7.) Abortions cease to to be a major problem since they fell from 4,6 million in 1988 to 800k+ in 2015. They declined every single year in that time frame.

    8.) Minus 50 million people in 2050? That means minus 1,4 million pear year? Not even in the darkest times in the 90's/early 2000's.
    9.) The population of the RSFSR wasn't growing at 2 million pear neither after WW2 nor before. Maximum was 1,9 million in the mid-50's. In 1986/87 the natural population growth was almost a million again but then came the disaster we all know.

    There are many more inaccuracies in that crappy fearmongering article but i'm too lazy to address them all.


    Last edited by Skandalwitwe on Fri Nov 25, 2016 10:05 am; edited 1 time in total

    Skandalwitwe
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    Re: Russian population

    Post  Skandalwitwe on Fri Nov 25, 2016 10:04 am

    Here you can check the TFR for all federal subjects in 2015:

    http://www.gks.ru/dbscripts/cbsd/dbinet.cgi?pl=2415002

    Only Moscow (unsurprisingly) and Mordovia have TFR below 1,5. Lenoblast is higher than stated that's for sure because a number of births is registered in St. Petersburg. Karachay-Cerkessia is now among the lowest in Russia, KBR isn't stellar either, even Ingushetia isn't in the Top20 anymore (so much for the North Caucasian threat).

    EDIT:
    If that Rosstat link doesn't work then here the wiki page:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_federal_subjects_of_Russia_by_total_fertility_rate

    franco
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    Re: Russian population

    Post  franco on Fri Nov 25, 2016 9:44 pm

    The birth rate hit their lowest points in 1999 and 2000. Which means for the military that the next two years are the bottom in regards to having 18 year old's to draft. It starts going up again in 2019/2020.

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    Re: Russian population

    Post  KiloGolf on Fri Nov 25, 2016 10:43 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:Over populating isn't a solution to problems either.

    I agree. Over populating with pensioners is a problem. Hence a healthy, steady increase of the population helps with social insurance and pensions.

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    Re: Russian population

    Post  Project Canada on Tue Jan 31, 2017 10:21 pm




    Generation of 1990s ready to take Russia to depopulation

    Russia faces the danger of depopulation: the generation of the 1990s has entered the childbearing age. This generation is too small in size and is unlikely to ensure natural reproduction of the Russian population. Russia experienced a monstrous decline in the birth rate during the 1990s. Nowadays, the phenomenon may occur again.
    Regions of Russia, where the birth rate is lowest, have received 16 billion rubles of funds from the federal budget. The families residing in those regions also receive financial support for third and subsequent children. Will it save the country, though? Pravda.Ru meets scientific director of the Independent Institute for Family and Demography Affairs, Igor Beloborodov, to talk about the looming population crisis.

    "Some experts believe that the depopulation problem has been solved for Russia, while others say that the country needs to prepare for the worst. What kind of demographic situation do you think Russia has at the moment?"

    "Those who say that the demographic crisis in Russia will end are charlatans. They are no experts at all. In reality, the age structure in Russia will deteriorate further in 2017 and then till 2020. The number of potential parents will halve in comparison with their amount 10-15 years ago.

    "One has to be a total idiot to expect the demographic crisis in Russia to end under such circumstances. Yet, those people who believe that the impending demographic crisis will be fatal are not right either. A lot will depend on what kind of policy Russia will conduct.
    "It is possible to increase the birth rate for the insignificant number of parents that we have. This can be done within the period of ten years. To accomplish that, one needs to completely change television broadcasts, introduce the concept of demographic security, especially on television. What we need is a massive social family-oriented campaign. If people come across the concept of family and family values everywhere, this propaganda will bring its results. For the time being, we do not have anything like this in the country. Where can a higher birth rate come from if there is absolutely no necessary propaganda?

    "The education system needs to be revised as well. Russian literature, history, social science - these subjects must carry the notion of family. One must bring the spirit of parenthood and family, love for children to younger people, and one must do it at all times.

    "If the authorities think that they can simply allocate 16 billion rubles and then do nothing, then they are terribly wrong. Money is not important here. It is the spiritual condition of the society that matters. Of course, it is necessary to revive family from the inside.

    "One needs to do a lot indeed. One has to revise the pension system in the country so that a person understands at their young age that their pension would depend on the number of children. This would be fair. The current pension system in Russia is falling apart, because present-day taxpayers will not be able to support the growing legion of pensioners.

    "A family of five and six should be prestigious and attractive, and one should make young people think about having large families. For the time being, however, there is an opposite trend. People of limited means give birth to many children, while wealthy individuals live in large houses alone."


    http://www.pravdareport.com/russia/economics/31-01-2017/136748-russia_depopulation-0/

    I agree with the part about educating Russians about the importance of having a large family, even if it means brainwashing the Russian population to have more children so be it, Russia needs a bigger population (at least around 400-500 million?) to survive as a stable, influential and formidable country. Russia will forever be in conflict with other countries seeking global domination because Russia is always in the way of their plans, thats why it is only necessary for Russia to be prepared with all possible scenarios, this is only achievable if Russia remains strong in all areas, Economics, Demographics, Science and Military.

    Svyatoslavich
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    Re: Russian population

    Post  Svyatoslavich on Tue Jan 31, 2017 11:24 pm

    The problem does exist because people in fertile age now are those born during the mini baby boom in the Gorbachev era (late 80's). In the 90's natality decreased drastically in Russia. But then again, there has been a strong increase in natality in the last years, so it is not that the problem will last forever. There will be a couple of decades of stagnation, and then Russian population will grow again even more.

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    Re: Russian population

    Post  kvs on Wed Feb 01, 2017 2:44 am

    Russia is affected by a global trend in the developed world which is leading to less marriage and less children being born.
    People are living at home longer and not hooking up with a biological partner as much. So the recovery from the 1990s
    crash is frustrated by a longer term dynamical pattern in developed societies.

    Look at Japan, they are closing schools like crazy and (don't laugh) if you watch any of the anime most of it is basically
    procreation propaganda. But as elsewhere the young generation is going its own way.

    The only way the government can really stimulate child "production" is to offset the cost. Current family friendly tax
    measures are token. There is a need for massive tax breaks (e.g. 50% or more). Russia is actually in a much better
    position to implement such measures because it has a 13% flat tax. This probably explains why the birth rate has
    recovered so much and Russia is actually doing better than other developed countries accounting for immigration.

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    Re: Russian population

    Post  Azi on Wed Feb 01, 2017 8:30 am

    kvs wrote:Russia is affected by a global trend in the developed world which is leading to less marriage and less children being born.
    People are living at home longer and not hooking up with a biological partner as much.   So the recovery from the 1990s
    crash is frustrated by a longer term dynamical pattern in developed societies.  

    Look at Japan, they are closing schools like crazy and (don't laugh) if you watch any of the anime most of it is basically
    procreation propaganda.   But as elsewhere the young generation is going its own way.  

    The only way the government can really stimulate child "production" is to offset the cost.   Current family friendly tax
    measures are token.   There is a need for massive tax breaks (e.g. 50% or more).   Russia is actually in a much better
    position to implement such measures because it has a 13% flat tax.   This probably explains why the birth rate has
    recovered so much and Russia is actually doing better than other developed countries accounting for immigration.

    Child birth in modern "western countries" (Japan included) is so low, because the ideal of the "modern" western woman is a arrogant, selfish, self-interested career woman, who lacks any sense for the family. This was the ideal promoted by the beauty industry, because a single woman who earns money spend much more money for woman bullshit in relation to a married woman or mother (cloths for children and a good education are more important than lipstick). The satanic combination of emancipation (the principle is good) and the interest of the western companies to sell a lot of bullshit (cosmetic etc) has destroyed the traditional family. I know what I'm writing about, I live in one of these western countries (Germany). NONE of my "alternative" (political left-aligned) friends have chrildren, but all of my friends with traditional ideal have 1-3 children.

    The special problem in Japan is that western ideal is overlapping with the real complex traditional system in Japan. In japan normally it's very very unpolite to flirt direct with the opposite, the man must be introduced by the family or friends to the woman. This old tradition is confronting with western ideals, that the woman has higher demands towards the man. The japanese don't flirt the western way "hey the other one is nice, I'm going to ask direct". So the japanese don't come together!!! In Tokio 50 % of all citizen are single, that's ridiculous high.

    The best for Russia is to curb "western" ideal!!! They must set in TV and magazine their own focus, based on traditional ideals and values. The conflict between the "West" and Russia is the best that ever could happend to Russia, because they can decouple their cultural development from the very mighty dominating western culture. Better taxes for families and a good childcare is the cream on the top and of course must have for Russia.

    The general tendency of less birth rate is normally very good, because we have tooo much people on planet. For China and Japan it's a blessing, because the population will later stabilize at a lower level. For europe the main problem is the muslimic population, because in some of the bigger western countries Islam will be from 2070 on the main religion, this means a radical shift in world balance and of course the loose of great cultures (Germany, France, UK) that dominated the world for nearly 2000 years is a big shame and sad. The general tendency in europe in the next years is a shift of power to east europe, they are more homogenous and will have less conflict inside their society. So be prepared that the scientific and cultural centre of Europa will be Poland and Russia.

    nastle77
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    Re: Russian population

    Post  nastle77 on Mon Feb 06, 2017 3:03 pm

    Ditto the problem is really the Western woman

    Kimppis
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    Re: Russian population

    Post  Kimppis on Tue Feb 14, 2017 4:50 pm

    Anatoly Karlin: Dying Bear Still Not Dead

    The reason I don’t write much about Russia’s demographics nowadays is that there isn’t much point to it.

    Up until the early 2010s, the Western media was brimming with misinformation about the subject – what we now call #fakenews – so refuting it was both profitable and easy. Incredibly easy. You didn’t really have to do anything much more complicated than taking a few minutes to browse through Russia’s national statistics database, but apparently that was beyond the capabilities of most Russia journalists.

    However, by now a critical number of Western pundits have apparently acquainted themselves with at least the Wikipedia article on Russia’s demographics. In the longterm, reality wins out, and so with a lag time of about a decade, references to Russia’s “plummeting population” and “sixth wave of emigration” have steadily petered out (the last major holdouts of Russia demographic doomerism was Barack Obama in this 2014 interview with The Economist, and Michael Rubin for Commentary in 2015,).

    We can now finally say that the “Dying Bear” meme has fulfilled lived up to its own name.

    ***

    Anyhow, preliminary demographic results for 2016 are in.

    Births remained marginally ahead of deaths, both at around 12.9/1,000 people, though the usual ~300,000 annual net immigrants (almost half of them from Ukraine) will ensure that overall population growth remains decidedly positive.

    Births decreased by 2.6%. The full impact of the small 1990s cohort is now being felt, so this was always inevitable. Deaths also declined by 1.2%, despite the ongoing aging of the population. This pretty much completes what I termed The Russian Hexagon, the successor to the so-called “Russian Cross” in the early 1990s when the births and deaths graphs intersected; in the past decade, birth and death rates once again converged, but from the opposite direction, forming a sort of hexagon.

    The Total Fertility Rate seems to have stabilized at around 1.75 children per woman (inevitable question: How much without Muslims/ethnic minorities? Approximately 0.1 children less, based on completed fertility data from the 2010 Census).

    This makes sense. As I pointed out almost a decade ago, Russian fertility preferences are similar to those of Scandinavians and the Anglosphere (~2.5 children per woman), and higher than that of Visegrad/The Med (~2.1 children) or the Teutonic world (1.7 children), so convergence to at least this level was always on the cards as soon as some semblance of economic stability and predictability was restored.

    As I pointed out, this makes Russia’s fertility rates reasonably respectable by European standards; they are only noticeably higher in France, Ireland, the UK, and Sweden.

    Life expectancy is now close to 72 years, which is the highest it has ever been in Russia’s history.

    One way of looking at this is that mortality trends in Russia are basically tracking improvements in the ex-Soviet Baltics (and the City of Moscow) with a lag of ten years, so there is good reason to expect this trend will continue.


    This is primarily linked to the big reduction in vodka bingeing during the past decade, which depressed Russian life expectancy by about a decade relative to what it “should be” based on its GDP per capita and healthcare system. This “alcoholization” began to soar from around 1965, and peaked in the 1990s and early 2000s. According to calculations by the demographer Alexander Nemtsov, something like a third of Russian mortality around 2005 could be attributed to it.

    Blast from the Past

    Incidentally, back in 2008, I created a demographic model for Russia, which enabled me to accurately predict a resumption in both total (2010) and natural (2013) population growth to the exact year.

    In the scenario where TFR is set to a constant 1.75 children per woman, the “Medium” scenario of mortality improvements (which has best tracked Russia’s life expectancy trends to date), and about 300,000 annual immigrants, it predicted the following:

    Medium (TFR=1.75 from 2010) The population grows from 2010, rising from 142mn to 148mn in 2025 and 156mn in 2050. The death rate troughs at 10.8 in 2034, before zooming in to 11.5 by 2050. The birth rate peaks at 13.6 by 2014, before plummeting to 9.7 in 2033, before recovering to 11.9 in 2046 and again falling, although less rapidly than before.

    How does this stack up against reality? The birth rate reached a multi-year plateau at 13.3 children per woman during 2012-2015, when the decline in the numbers of women of childbearing age were exactly offset by rising total fertility rates. The mortality rate fell steadily throughout this period, just as predicted, though it is marginally higher as of 2016 (12.9/1,000) than in the Medium variant (12.6/1,000).

    Overall, this is pretty close, and suggests that the model is fundamentally sound and thus so are its future population projections.

    Of course it has to be adjusted upwards by 2.3 million to take into account Crimea, and any further (re)gatherings of rightful Russian clay.



    As alcohol abuse fell, so did all of the other components of mortality, especially those most strongly associated with it, i.e. deaths from external causes:

    … which includes homicides, suicides, deaths from transport accidents (despite soaring vehicle ownership), and, self-referentially, deaths from alcohol poisoning.

    Part of this reduction was due to cultural change, including the realities of life under capitalism (if you turn up to work drunk, you can be fired, unlike under socialism), part of it was due to economics (more diversity of choice), and part of it was thanks to specific Kremlin policies, such as steady increases in the excise tax on alcohol and restrictions on alcohol advertising.

    Finally, the abortion rate continues to quietly decline. The ratio of abortions to births is now down to 40%, down from well more than 100% during the era from the post-Stalin legalization of abortion to the 1990s. This is still about 2-3x higher than in most of Western Europe and the US, but Russia is longer the absolute outlier it once was.

    Just like the trends with fertility and mortality, this too can be considered a return to “demographic normality” after the Soviet aberration.

    One important point: Conservative talking points to the contrary, there is no hard evidence that high abortion rates actually decrease fertility. Low abortion rates are good though for general health reasons and (depending on your religious views) for ethical ones but they have very little to do with demographic health per se.

    Even though it completely bans abortions, Poland has one of Europe’s lowest fertility rates. For some reason Mark Steyn never did dwell on that…

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    Re: Russian population

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