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    Russian population

    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Mon Feb 25, 2019 8:14 pm

    There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lies,_damned_lies,_and_statistics

    The USSR census didn't record a population drop either during the famine 30s, FYI. The 1926 Soviet census recorded 147 million people, while the 1937 census recorded at least 162 million. The 162 million figure was reportedly a figure Stalin tried to suppress, as he had expected an increase to 170 million, though there is some historical quibbling over whether the 162 million figure was a lowball estimate.
    No, I don't trust the US statistics either:  
    About 600,000 people died in the 1918 flu in the United States, and hardly anyone now considers it a topic worth mentioning. The government at the time even suppressed knowledge of it because it would take away from the war effort. 7 million people over 12 years translates to roughly 600,000 surplus deaths per year. And since most famine deaths are typically due to diseases brought about by weakened immune systems, I could see very easily how something like this would get ignored for not being newsworthy.
    https://www.revleft.space/vb/threads/138742-7-million-people-most-likely-starved-in-the-US-Great-Depression-during-1933
    http://www.pravdareport.com/world/105255-famine/

    During the Soviet rule, many of those who allegedly died of natural causes may have their death certificates issued as such to hide the real causes of death & falsely recorded as such. With ~10M + 47M dead in the Civil War & WWII =~57M, + Ms more died sooner than normal after 1991. Combine that with decreased birthrate & it's easy to understand why the official #s r being exaggerated to keep the illusion that not all is so bad. Finally, food consumption varies & that's why the 86M has the biggest margin of error in it. However, it's still close to & between  the other 2 figures.
    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible on Mon Feb 25, 2019 8:28 pm

    You are aware Soviet Union accounted for far more people than just Russia, right? Plus RSFSR was 100,000,000 after the war so yes, it was actually calculated.  Population of Russia was larger than it is now. Also why Russia went from ~95% Russian now to 85% due to mass migration as people fled onto Russia. Just check demographics. You will find millions of other ethnics live in Russia.

    https://www.tacitus.nu/historical-atlas/population/russia.htm

    Now spare us your lies and fuck off.
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Mon Feb 25, 2019 9:30 pm

    Plus RSFSR was 100,000,000 after the war so yes, it was actually calculated.
    By Stain's bureaucracy that lied about the number of war casualties. Khrushchev, Brezhnev & Gorbachev later changed them, all toward higher figures. Besides, Ms of crippled veterans didn't have any children &/ died earlier, affecting the birth rates down the line. If they lied about those, why not lie about census results that, if truthful, can reveal those lies? Also, some who die/emigrate r counted as still alive/inside the country.
    I'm not bothered if u believe them, but spare me of the official lies u trust & repeat, & refrain from cursing me.
    Any truth creates a scandal, & that lady's example confirms it.
    GunshipDemocracy
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    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Mon Feb 25, 2019 10:03 pm

    Tsavo Lion wrote:

    The USSR census didn't record a population drop either during the famine 30s,

    and who says it was any drop? it is enough that population growth slowed down, besides all those "ukro-glodomor" numbers were mainly designed in US

    TL wrote: The 1926 Soviet census recorded 147 million people, while the 1937 census recorded at least 162 million. The 162 million figure was reportedly a figure Stalin tried to suppress, as he had expected an increase to 170 million, though there is some historical quibbling over whether the 162 million figure was a lowball estimate.

    so why 137->162 mlns was not possible ? what would you mean by "reportedly" - reported by whom? UK? US? Hitler?





    TL wrote: During the Soviet rule, many of those who allegedly died of natural causes may have their death certificates issued as such to hide the real causes of death & falsely recorded as such. With ~10M + 47M dead in the Civil War & WWII =~57M, + Ms more died sooner than normal after 1991. Combine that with decreased birthrate & it's easy to understand why the official #s r being exaggerated to keep the illusion that not all is so bad. Finally, food consumption varies & that's why the 86M has the biggest margin of error in it. However, it's still close to & between  the other 2 figures.

    those numbers are from what source?! ?Food consumption in Moscow in non-market economy where more than half of population grows own food?

    ekhm 10m is what? exactly?

    GunshipDemocracy
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    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Mon Feb 25, 2019 10:11 pm

    Tsavo Lion wrote: Khrushchev, Brezhnev & Gorbachev later changed them, all toward higher figures.

    Aaaa so when Gorbi changed anything that matters becsue others lied ? So who is pro-western is OK?
    Then Russia had yet another pro western activist. Vlasov. Im sure he'd add even more deaths to "Stalin's regime"

    PS Khrushchev is main person who destroyed Stalin's economical achievements. Not to mention stealing Russia's property Crimea and illegal passing it to Ukraine.

    Do you have some reliable sources to support your claims perhaps? Suspect Suspect Suspect
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Mon Feb 25, 2019 10:28 pm

    My point is that they manipulated data that wasn't 100% correct in the 1st place. That same data & exaggerated census figures r being interpreted in different ways to support a given agenda.
    Official statistics is a propaganda tool most of the time. Even the CIA with its professional analysts makes mistakes.
    What agenda did that lady have other than her citizen's concern?
    Kimppis
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    Post  Kimppis on Mon Feb 25, 2019 10:35 pm

    Truth? You actually believe that nonsense? But why??? The whole thing is absolutely idiotic.

    Why not go even lower? How about 10 million? Actually, scratch that. As we all know, Russia is a gas station. So in reality there's only Putler, a few of his mafia cronies and propagandists that show up on TV (Putler has already personally murdered all democratic and truth-seeking journalists), and his troll/hacker farm, which has meddled in every single Western election. FYI, on the side they created the missile CGI animations, those things obviously don't actually exist.

    Then there are some mercenaries who regularly die in their thousands in Syria. They also invade Ukraine every summer. Lastly you can add some idiots who maintain the gas pipelines and oil wells. So Upper Volta's population is maybe 20,000, give or take a few thousand.

    OK, let's assume that stupid conspiracy theory is correct and Russia's population is around 90 million, it would mean that the average Russian is basically richer than most Western Europeans, do you realize that? That just one flaw. The average Russian would also consume a massive amount of food, electricity, heck, everything. And what are those Khrushchev, Brezhnev & Gorbachev numbers then? Please enlighten us.

    You don't seem to be anti-Russian nor an idiot in general when it comes to other topics, so what on earth is up with your... Russian demographics derangement syndrome? Are we seriously discussing this shit? Come the fuck on, man! Russia's population is around 147 million, THE END.
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Mon Feb 25, 2019 11:49 pm

    FYI, on the side they created the missile CGI animations, those things obviously don't actually exist.
    Yet, somehow the US generals r concerned:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/15/russia-hypersonic-weapon-likely-ready-for-war-by-2020-us-intel.html
    https://www.voanews.com/a/russia-poised-to-challenge-us-military-dominance/4287376.html

    Then there are some mercenaries who regularly die in their thousands in Syria.
    read my posts:
    http://www.russiadefence.net/t7703p275-syrian-war-news-19#248582

    OK, let's assume that stupid conspiracy theory is correct and Russia's population is around 90 million, it would mean that the average Russian is basically richer than most Western Europeans, do you realize that? That just one flaw. The average Russian would also consume a massive amount of food, electricity, heck, everything. And what are those Khrushchev, Brezhnev & Gorbachev numbers then? Please enlighten us.

    Some consume a lot while the majority consume very little, per capita, just like in India & L. America with their huge inequality.
    Averaging #s is exactly 1 of the reasons why the statistics can falsely reflect the real picture. Don't forget that Russia maintains strategic stocks of food & other materials in case of war, crop failures & natural disasters.
    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible on Tue Feb 26, 2019 1:23 am

    Dunno why you guys are even e pertaining his batshit crazy theory.

    FYI, it isn't just Russian authorities who monitor population in Russia. Third party groups including foreigners do. They never want to add Crimea in so they all come to the same conclusion of 144M.

    Now his tinpot theory may be interesting for some if Russia was a closed society with no outside information allowed. But since it's regularly traveled by all from every country with foreign NGO's existing in the country, then a he is sounding like everyone is in on the scam regarding population.

    As I said, pensioners and tax payers cannot hide. So it's easy to calculate total population with an error of 10%
    kvs
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    Post  kvs on Tue Feb 26, 2019 3:10 am

    The population size can be constrained by bounds calculated using population growth parameters. This is one way to prove the
    Holodomor hoax for what it is. The population of Ukraine over 50 million in 1989 is way too big if over 14 million died in the Holodomor.
    Population growth was over near 3% around 1900 but fell to around 1% by the 1950s. This same pattern of TFR decline was found
    in the USA and other countries that went from agrarian to urban-industrial economies.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Empire_Census

    Ukraine had a population of 21 million in 1897 (the wikipedia clowns lump Crimea with Ukraine, revisionist scum). Assuming
    a rosy 3% population growth we have by 1930:

    P = (1.03)^(1930-1897) * P_0
    = (1.03)^33 * P_0
    = 2.65 * P_0
    = 55.7 million

    Clearly this unrealistic and the real population growth was closer to 1.5%:

    P = (1.015)^33 * P_0
    = 1.63 * P_0
    = 34 million

    Taking the Holodomor hoax at face value, the population of Ukraine in 1941 was over 14 million smaller. So approximately
    the total population was 20 million. Now, Ukraine lost at least 20% of the total USSR depopulation (soldiers and civilians)
    of 27 million, that is, 5.4 million. Since the front traversed Ukraine but not most of the USSR (e.g. Siberia) the number is
    actually higher and closer to 7 million (look it up). Thus by 1945 Ukraine had 13 million (P_0) people.

    Assuming an average 1% growth rate after 1945:

    P = (1.01)^(1989-1945) * P_0
    = (1.01)^44 * P_0
    = 1.55 * P_0
    = 20 million.

    In fact, I am overestimating growth since after 1970 the population growth was under 1% and it was around 1% during the
    1960s. It was estimated at 1.3% in Ukraine during the 1940s.

    https://greatsovietencyclopedia.fandom.com/wiki/Population_(USSR)

    So better approximation is about 0.75% population growth average:

    P = (1.0075)^44 * P_0
    = 1.39 * P_0
    = 18 million

    But the census had 52 million, an excess of 34 million people. Thus in the real world in 1945 the population of Ukraine must have been
    about 52/1.39 = 37 million. This implies that at the start of the war the population of Ukraine was 44 million and not 13 million.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_All-Union_Census_of_the_Soviet_Union

    So, in 1926 Ukraine had 31 million people and my estimate of 34 million by 1930 reasonable. We see that Ukraine actually experienced
    millions in population growth between during the 1930s. Given the fact that natural population growth rates fall due to urbanization
    and industrialization and are a slowly evolving variable, it is not possible for any "holocaust" in Ukraine to have occurred during
    the 1930s. WWI and the Civil War stalled the population growth so the 1926 Soviet census figure is realistic.

    Nobody can claim that there was hidden genocide in Russia after 1991. So the disappearance of 57 million people which is over twice
    the size of the total population loss by the USSR during WWII is a f*cktarded claim.
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Tue Feb 26, 2019 3:18 am

    They closed down many NGOs which refused to register as foreign agents &/ booted out regardless. Even in the US some dead people r still being sent/remitted their Social Security checks by mistake. In Russia, some of those pensioners may be dead but their relatives still pocket the $. The same with fake wage earners/taxpayers. It's not a new phenomenon: N. Gogol's "Dead Souls" was first published in 1842.
    The government would tax the landowners based on how many serfs (or "souls") the landowner owned, determined by the census. Censuses in this period were infrequent, so landowners would often be paying taxes on serfs that were no longer living, thus the "dead souls." It is these dead souls, existing on paper only, that Chichikov seeks to purchase from the landlords in the villages he visits; he merely tells the prospective sellers that he has a use for them, and that the sellers would be better off anyway, since selling them would relieve the present owners of a needless tax burden. ..
    Once he acquires enough dead souls, he will take out an enormous loan against them and pocket the money.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_Souls#Plot

    Disinformation & domestic propaganda r 2 sides of the same coin; that's why all those official RF population figures in Russia & abroad should be taken with a grain of salt.
    The population of Ukraine over 50 million in 1989 is way too big if over 14 million died in the Holodomor.
    How many Ms were not in Ukraine before the famine but moved there later & having children? Let's start there before calculating the rest.

    In 2017, population net loss increased 50x:



    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Tue Feb 26, 2019 4:56 am; edited 2 times in total (Reason for editing : add link)
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Tue Feb 26, 2019 8:45 am

    They closed down many NGOs which refused to register as foreign agents &/ booted out regardless.

    It is pretty much assured that the west does not spend money to help anyone but themselves and any NGO organisation set up in Russia has an agenda that is not really in the interests of the Russian people... any western NGO closed in Russia is a good thing for the Russian people.
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    Post  Kimppis on Tue Feb 26, 2019 1:27 pm

    Tsavo Lion wrote:
    FYI, on the side they created the missile CGI animations, those things obviously don't actually exist.
    Yet, somehow the US generals r concerned:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/15/russia-hypersonic-weapon-likely-ready-for-war-by-2020-us-intel.html
    https://www.voanews.com/a/russia-poised-to-challenge-us-military-dominance/4287376.html

    It was obviously sarcasm, as was the whole "scenario".

    Some consume a lot while the majority consume very little, per capita, just like in India & L. America with their huge inequality.
    Averaging #s is exactly 1 of the reasons why the statistics can falsely reflect the real picture. Don't forget that Russia maintains strategic stocks of food & other materials in case of war, crop failures & natural disasters.

    Averages are still valid regardless. Russia's GINI-index is also quite a bit lower than the US nowadays, for example, pretty much average by global standards, if not slightly lower. And it's not like those countries have some "suspicious" per capita figures, I don't think?

    On Ukraine: I'll simply quote Anatoly Karlin:

    Incidentally, if the Ukrainian population really is 22-24 million based on bread consumption declines, it would also imply that it is about as rich as China and Belarus. Unless their economic figures are all balloony too.

    Unless proven otherwise, I have always maintained that Russian statistics can generally be trusted – to the opposition of Western propagandists such as Michael McFaul – and unlike them, I am consistent and will do likewise for the Ukraine.

    But perhaps the weirdest part of Fomin's article is this:

       During the 1995/1996 school year there were 7.1 million schoolchildren in Ukraine. In the 2015/2016 school year it was down to 3,783,150 (official data of the Ministry of Education of Ukraine) or 47% in 20 years.

    Apparently the general collapse of fertility in the 1990s across the post-Soviet space – which translates into many fewer schoolchildren today – passed him by.

    This is not to say that Ukrainian demographics are anything to write home about; the TFR was at 1.47 children per woman in 2016, and will have declined to 1.40 in 2017 (Russia: 1.76 and 1.62, respectively).

    Also, are people really talking about 14 million in regards to Holodomor? Or rather, is that the consensus? I don't think so. It just (arguably) wasn't a genocide and it didn't only target Ukranians, millions of Russians died as well.

    Overall it's the same conspiracy bullshit. Ukrainian demographic situation is crap, absolutely, but wishful thinking shouldn't be taken too far.
    kvs
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    Post  kvs on Tue Feb 26, 2019 4:00 pm

    The figure of 14 million is routinely bandied about. It is utterly nonsensical. Even 7 million would be utter BS.
    The key point is that the slow growth rate after WWII prevents recovery of the population from arbitrary declines during
    the 1930s.

    The fact is that the forced collectivization famine in Ukraine did not claim as many lives as claimed. There is
    no way to wiggle out of that one. Considering the facts, this famine was the direct responsibility of the resistor
    farmers who burned their crops and killed their livestock to prevent them falling into the hands of the state. It
    is only the indirect responsibility of the Soviet government. There is simply no analogy to people being rounded
    up in cattle cars and send to death camps. Ukrainians were not sent to death camps by the million. The ones that
    died did so in their own homes thanks to the fanaticism of their countrymen. That is why the Holodomor is a hoax.

    It is clear that more Ukrainians died during WWII than during the 1930s. The Holodomor hoax was designed as a revisionist
    white wash of the Nazis.



    Walther von Oldenburg
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    Post  Walther von Oldenburg on Tue Feb 26, 2019 4:23 pm

    Over 4,000,000 Ukrainians served in Red Army and partisans compared to 400,000 who served Hitler.
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Tue Feb 26, 2019 4:53 pm

    Over 4,000,000 Ukrainians served in Red Army..

    Lenin gave a lot of lands to that republic that weren't originally hers, to calm down nationalists there. A big portion, if not the most, of that # were ethnic Russians, mixed Russian/Ukrainian, & Russified Ukrainians who spoke only Russian, like in Donbass today.
    Holodomor figures r inflated & so r of the Russian population. The larger they r, the stronger they look. That discourages the other powers from plotting against them. China, Japan, & the US all want access to vast Siberian resources.
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    Post  Walther von Oldenburg on Tue Feb 26, 2019 5:09 pm

    IIRC in 1920s people as far as Kuban spoke what could be called Ukrainian or a mix of Russian and Ukrainian. Except it was called Little Russian (Maloruskij jazyk) more or less until the creation of Ukrainian SSR.

    Ofc the dustinction of what is Russian and what is Ukrainian/Malorussian was extremely blurred as today.
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    Post  Hole on Tue Feb 26, 2019 6:20 pm

    Problem with this "Holdomor" is that even american historians found no evidence of it as they traveled trough "Ukraine" and talked with people living in that time. No one could remember more than one or two people dying in a neighbouring village. Also no massgraves found. No diaries from that time claiming something like "thousands died". Fact is that in that timeframe was a famine in the whole of Russia, just like there was one in Amiland after the collapse of their economy which resulted in both cases to around 2 million people dying more then without food shortages.
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    Post  PapaDragon on Tue Feb 26, 2019 8:23 pm

    Hole wrote:Problem with this "Holdomor" is that even american historians found no evidence of it as they traveled trough "Ukraine" and talked with people living in that time. No one could remember more than one or two people dying in a neighbouring village. Also no massgraves found. No diaries from that time claiming something like "thousands died". Fact is that in that timeframe was a famine in the whole of Russia, just like there was one in Amiland after the collapse of their economy which resulted in both cases to around 2 million people dying more then without food shortages.


    I keep this in storage, it's all there:


    Holodomor Hoax: Joseph Stalin's Crime That Never Took Place

    https://sputniknews.com/politics/201508091025560345/



    I just love how Ukrainians say that they are only ones who had food shortage while rest of USSR was apparently eating lobsters and caviar

    Only difference between the Ukraine and other Soviet republics was that others believed that cannibalism should not be Plan-A for dealing with famine
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    Post  Hole on Tue Feb 26, 2019 9:54 pm

    Most people died not to starvation as such but do to being weakend by to little food and then getting ill. Just like most people die because they inhaled smoke but over time their body "develops" cancer.
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Wed Feb 27, 2019 1:47 am

    Correction: Zhirinovsky said that 24M died as a result of the civil war.
    About 8 million people lost their lives during the Russian Civil War. Out of them, about one million were soldiers of the Red Army.
    The anti-communists and their White Army killed at least 50,000 communists.
    Many millions of people also died due to famine, starvation, and epidemics. In white-occupied areas such as the Ukraine and southern Russia, many Jews were killed.

    https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Civil_War
    https://www.quora.com/How-many-people-died-during-the-Russian-Civil-War
    The conflict raged across Eurasia for four years, claimed approximately 15 million lives,..First World War, ..claimed the lives of about 3 million..
    https://www.military-history.org/articles/the-russian-civil-war.htm
    https://www.rferl.org/a/the-horror-of-russias-civil-war-in-photos-from-red-cross-mission/29699442.html

    Scholars figure that communism killed between 8 million and 61 million Soviets, but 15 million to 20 million seems most accurate.
    Estimates of the total number of dead due to communism— not counting from wars — run from 85 million to more than 200 million.

    https://www.investors.com/politics/commentary/the-bolshevik-revolution-a-century-of-death-and-destruction/

    So, no1 really knows the total losses. Also, those in the GULAG didn't have any children before they died there or got released. Many of those released also couldn't/didn't have children.
    Hence the need to fabricate census #s.

    Losses & gains in all 15 republics since 1991:

    Those needing translation should use CC & a dictionary.


    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:35 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : add a quote)
    Nibiru
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    Post  Nibiru on Tue Mar 05, 2019 1:41 pm

    What is the use of Avangard, Poseidon, Kinzhal, Peresvet, Burevestnik and all other next generation weapon systems to defend Russia when they will allow Muslims to takeover anyways??? Rolling Eyes



    Russia Will Be One-Third Muslim in 15 Years, Chief Mufti Predicts

    Around 30 percent of the Russian population will practice Islam within the next 15 years, Russia’s grand mufti has predicted, citing demographic trends.

    Russia’s Muslim-majority regions, including republics in the North Caucasus and the republic of Tatarstan, are known to have the highest birth rates in the country, reflecting similar trends worldwide. Various estimates place the current Muslim population in Russia at between 14 million and 20 million people, or between 10 to 14 percent of Russia's total population of 146.8 million in 2018.

    “According to experts, Russia’s [Muslim] population will increase to 30 percent in a decade and a half,” said Ravil Gainutdin, the chairman of the Council of Muftis, a religious group representing Russia’s Muslim community.

    The changing demographics mean that “dozens” of new mosques will need to be built in Russia’s largest cities, Gainutdin said at a forum hosted by the State Duma on Monday.

    Archpriest Dmitry Smirnov, an official in Russia’s Orthodox Church, agreed with Gainutdin’s forecast and predicted that “there won't be any Russians left in 2050.”

    “It’s too late,” he told the Govorit Moskva radio station when asked if the demographic trend could be reversed.

    https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/03/05/russia-will-be-one-third-muslim-in-15-years-chief-mufti-predicts-a64706
    Kimppis
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    Post  Kimppis on Tue Mar 05, 2019 1:55 pm

    Neutral

    You are quoting The Moscow Times? "Experts" lol. They actually wrote that?

    That's utter BS, quite simply. Russia is like 85% Russian and muslim fertility rate isn't even that much higher on average anymore.
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    Post  Nibiru on Tue Mar 05, 2019 3:01 pm

    You are quoting The Moscow Times? "Experts" lol. They actually wrote that?

    I know Moscow Times is mostly BS, however, the statement was quoted from the Russian muslim in chief. If the quote is entirely made up then theres nothing to be worried about, but what IF the mufti actually said that? of course his wishful thinking wouldn't magically make his dreams of a 30% muslim Russia a reality, But such statements make clear the AIM of Islamic forces in Russia and many other countries with a significant Muslim minority. A SLOW and eventual takeover of their host countries. The Russian archbishop's comment about "No Russians left by 2050" is NOT helping as well. If these Religious figures are government appointed/ approved, then aren't they supposed to follow rules concerning inflammatory comments that shouldn't be spoken especially in a government hosted forum??
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    Russian population - Page 25 Empty Re: Russian population

    Post  miketheterrible on Tue Mar 05, 2019 3:08 pm

    They been saying this forever. But it has never mounted to anything. As kimmis said, the number of Muslims Russian families having kids is about the same as Russians themselves. Actually, some reasons out east has more fertility than caucuses.

    Only way would be through migration we're it is no secret that majority flooding in are Muslims coming from the "Stan" countries.

    That said, they also help dwindle their numbers by blowing each other up regularly in the caucuses so I guess that helps balance them out too.

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    Russian population - Page 25 Empty Re: Russian population

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