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    Russian population

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    flamming_python

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    Re: Russian population

    Post  flamming_python on Tue Aug 29, 2017 1:13 am

    Kimppis wrote:And some more negativity, but obviously worth reporting:

    Russia’s population starts to decline again

    https://report.az/en/region/russia-s-population-starts-to-decline-again/

    aku. 18 August. REPORT.AZ/ In the first half of this year, the population of Russia decreased by 17,000 people and made 146,8 mln. people as of July 1.

    Report informs citing the Vesti, the Russian Statistics Committee has circulated information.

    Last year, the country’s population increased by 267,3 000 people, and in 2015 by 277,4 000.

    Along with it, in the first half-year, the number of newborns fell to 821, 000. In the same period of 2016, the number of the population declined by 928,4 000 people. The number of the dead has declined by 940,4 000 people compared to January-June 2015 (960,6 000).

    Thus, in January-June 2017, the natural decrease of the population made 119,4 000 peple compared to the same period of 2016 (32,2 000 people). As a result of migration, increase compensated 85,7% of the population decrease.

    The decrease in the number of newborns has been recorded in 84 regions, and the number of the dead in 73 regions of the country.

    Overall, the number of the dead has surpassed the number of newborns 1,1 times and 1,5-2 times in 25 regions.

    The natural population growth has been recorded in 21 regions of Russia (35 regions in the same period of 2016).

    The increase as a result of migration has made 102,3 000 people compared to January-June 2016 (141,9 people).

    So basically +- 0. It's entirely possible there will be growth this year as well, and the decline in births (atleast to this extent) might also be temporary, because people react to the economic situation with a delay. And of course death rate keeps declining, which is a good thing.

    The decline in the number of births is inevitable; it's now the generation that was born after the fall of the USSR that has entered child-bearing age, and there's a lot less of this group of people then even the ones that were born 5-10 years before, the birth-rate in early 90s Russia fell like a stone.

    Right now, the people that were born in 1985-1991 (last period of the USSR; the Glasnost'/Perestroika sell-off and collapse), are between 25-32 years old - the age range that most of them will be getting married and starting a family at in modern-day Russia; and just over half of this group would have done so already. Over the next 5 years, most of the rest of that group will get married and start families
    The people who are currently 18-24 were born after the USSR, and there are considerably fewer of them. They're just starting to get into marriage and family; this phase of Russia's demographics has just started in earnest 1-2 years ago. In 5 years, this group will be the one that's doing the majority of that work, and they'll be yielding fewer kids then the previous group; it's inevitable.

    In reality this is something of a simplification as even over the range of just 1985-1991 there was already a sharp decline being witnessed in children being born. But you get the picture.

    We'll just have to last it out, another 10-15 years or so until we're back into solid territory. However economical and social improvements would mean that people will be enticed to have more children then before; so possibly we can keep birth numbers from declining significantly even though we have less people giving birth. In the meantime, we can make up the balance by continuing to work on death-rates (murder per capita, deaths from car accidents and some other things are still high in Russia by global standards), investing further into medical technologies and the health-care system, and of course encouraging immigration from countries like the Ukraine.
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    PapaDragon

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    Re: Russian population

    Post  PapaDragon on Tue Aug 29, 2017 1:47 am

    ...However economical and social improvements would mean that people will be enticed to have more children then before; so possibly we can keep birth numbers from declining significantly even though we have less people giving birth. In the meantime, we can make up the balance by continuing to work on death-rates (murder per capita, deaths from car accidents and some other things are still high in Russia by global standards), investing further into medical technologies and the health-care system, and of course encouraging immigration from countries like the Ukraine.

    You just laid out solution right here.

    It's pretty simple actually. Build and upgrade schools and kindergartens​, invest in prenatal care and medicine, provide parental benefits for parents and maternity leaves, etc....

    It's lots of small things that gradually add up and deliver results. Good news is that Russia is already doing many of these things, they just need to keep at it.
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    miketheterrible

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    Re: Russian population

    Post  miketheterrible on Tue Aug 29, 2017 2:16 am

    Python, you live in St.Petersburg, right? How is the climate there? Do you see a lot of young families there?
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    flamming_python

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    Re: Russian population

    Post  flamming_python on Tue Aug 29, 2017 2:43 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:Python, you live in St.Petersburg, right?  How is the climate there?  Do you see a lot of young families there?

    If by climate you mean the weather then it's pretty shit. Had an extra-long winter this year and a very short summer, with very liberal helpings of rain.

    However I do see plenty of young families around. Of course such an observation, without backing statistics, means little.
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    miketheterrible

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    Re: Russian population

    Post  miketheterrible on Tue Aug 29, 2017 3:31 pm

    flamming_python wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:Python, you live in St.Petersburg, right?  How is the climate there?  Do you see a lot of young families there?

    If by climate you mean the weather then it's pretty shit. Had an extra-long winter this year and a very short summer, with very liberal helpings of rain.

    However I do see plenty of young families around. Of course such an observation, without backing statistics, means little.

    Well, I was going to say overall climate as in: Work, young families, environment, general activities within a city for entertainment, etc.

    I can tell you, I am not the least surprised about the situation regarding the actual weather. You are pretty far north. And here, our weather is pretty odd too. We had an all too warm summer here, even if it is short. With cold nights. Which made it pretty crap for gardening purposes - growing anything other than wheat.

    par far

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    Re: Russian population

    Post  par far on Wed Nov 01, 2017 12:26 pm

    "US COLLECTS RUSSIAN BIOMATERIAL. FOR WHAT?."

    What is the purpose behind this? Could it used for population control?

    https://southfront.org/us-collects-russian-biomaterial/

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    Kimppis

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    Re: Russian population

    Post  Kimppis on Tue Jan 30, 2018 4:24 pm

    Anatoly Karlin: Russian Demographics in 2018

    - There were about 1,689,884 (11.5/1,000) births in 2017, a decline of 10.7% relative to the 1,893,256 (12.9/1,000) births in 2016

    - There were about 1,824,340 (12.4/1,000) deaths in 2017, a decline of 3.4% relative to the 1,887,913 (12.9/1,000) deaths in 2016

    - Consequently, the rate of natural increase declined from 5,343 (0.0/1,000) in 2016, to -134,456 (-0.9/1,000) in 2017

    - The population was estimated at 146,877,088 as of Jan 1, 2018, up from 146,838,993 exactly one year ago. This implies about 172,551 long-term net immigration (wait... shouldn't be slightly higher? Oh well, whatever...)

    - Russian fertility fell off a cliff in the second half of 2016, though there are tentative signs that it may have bottomed out in recent months

    - Consequently, I calculate Russian TFR was ~1.61 children per woman in 2017, down from 1.76 in 2016

    - First, whereas Russia was doing significantly better than most of the rest of Eastern Europe (see the map right), and showed tentative signs of breaking out into the high-fertility category of European countries (e.g. Scandinavia, France, the British Isles), this has now been postponed – possibly indefinitely

    - Curiously, this seems to be a global pattern: American TFR fell from 1.84 in 2015 and 1.82 in 2016, to approximately 1.77. Births fell by 8% in the Ukraine this year, so its TFR will decline from 1.47 in 2016 to around 1.40 in 2017. Births fell by 6% in Latvia and 3% in Estonia. Norway 1.71 to 1.62, Sweden 1.85 to 1.78, Finland 1.57 to 1.49, etc., etc

    - Abortion in Russia continues to decline to normal country levels. This is still about 2-3x higher than in most of Western Europe and the US, but Russia is longer the absolute outlier it once was

    - Based on the decrease in mortality, I calculate that life expectancy was ~72.9 years in 2017

    - Russia’s average life expectancy of close to 73 years is equivalent to Poland in 1998 (which as of this year has pretty much converged with the US), Estonia and Hungary in 2005, Latvia and Lithuania in 2010

    - Neither is Russia any longer outlier in terms of “deaths from vices”. Poland (18/100,000) and especially Lithuania (24/100,000) have more suicides than Russia (16/100,000). Homicide rates are at 6.0/100,000, having almost converged with America’s 5.3/100,000 in 2016.

    User Annatar's comment:
    I would expect births to rise by around 5% in 2018 as marriages fell 15% in 2016 to a 12 year low which led to a 11% fall in births in 2017, marriages rose by 7.5% in 2017, which should translate to a 5% rise in births as Russia is still a nation where a majority of births occur within wedlock.
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    miketheterrible

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    Re: Russian population

    Post  miketheterrible on Tue Jan 30, 2018 5:48 pm

    I find it impossible to calculate potentials for years to come of birthday vs deaths.

    Already, Russia's population vs what it was traditionally is higher by around ~40M people compared to 1900. Issue is that it's still growing with some years positive growth by Nationals increasing g sometimes not, but majority of growth is migrants. Be it's Russian ethnics from other former Soviet nations going back home, or the Stan nations people migrating. Not good that it's a large part of the Stan nations migrating to Russia.

    Also, the growth should be massive as Russia took in about 2 - 4 million Ukrainian migrants since 2014 but the issue here is they are not Russian citizens. So they don't count as per the migration numbers just yet. I don't know if it's a good thing or not to keep them seeing as many of these Ukrainians are becoming a real problem in Russia too.

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